OMG the Brexit!

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OMG the Brexit!

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1DinadansFriend
Jun 24, 2016, 8:55 pm

I think we should investigate this phenomenon, did it stem from a protest against a feeling of powerlessness? Or was it a reasoned dislike of the direction the EU is taking in regards to the influx of migrants into the "Right Little Island?" Or has there opened up an opportunity for all the British secessionist groups? Or was it an attempt to keep British nationalism from dissolving into a genuine European Consciousness that made older Brits feel uncomfortable?

2dajashby
Jun 24, 2016, 9:48 pm

Oh dear, oh dear, oh dear! This wasn't supposed to happen. It's hubris if ever I saw hubris.

In this part of the world it's the topic du jour, especially since we have an election on 2 July and the voters are showing distinct signs of being fed up with the professional politicians. I reckon it's a global thing, thumbing your nose at the ruling class without really thinking through the consequences. Oh dear, I fear we are going to wind up with President Trump and PM Johnson!

At least Malcolm Turnbull (incumbent Australian PM) is impeccably groomed. At the moment he's capitalising on the general panic with asking us to trust him to ensure stability, but if he wins he's at real risk of a hung parliament and an even more intractable Senate than before he decided to risk a double dissolution (and you would be amazed at how many unconsciously prescient punters seem to think it's "double disillusion"). Not that Bill Shorten (Opposition leader) is likely to be any better placed.

What's next? Who knows? I dare say the markets will settle down fairly soon, but investors love certainty and I worry there could be real harm to the British economy. Long term, well cutting the cord takes two years and by then all sorts of things could happen. Maybe Scotland will secede.

Interesting times, no?

3BruceCoulson
Jun 24, 2016, 9:57 pm

Having a foreign leader coming over to lecture the British probably didn't help matters.

4DinadansFriend
Jun 24, 2016, 10:04 pm

>2 dajashby::
Verry Interesting. I did notice that there is a possibility of a British General Election when Cameron goes. Which party will then choose to run on re-applying to the EU?
Thank you for the rundown on things Antipodean. Did you mean that Australia can have their Senate in session while the House of Commons is scrambling through an election? Or are both Houses up for grabs at the same time? Or is the Senate staggered in a good sense like the Yanks?
Pray inform my ignorance.
I wonder where the Yanks and Brits are at this time?
Not back from the Pub yet?
Or out working for Bernie to defeat the Toxic Cheeto? Or even for Hilary?

5DinadansFriend
Edited: Jun 24, 2016, 10:14 pm

>3 BruceCoulson::
Which foreign leader came to lecture the Brits? Our Justin said something mildly in favour of Remain, as a private citizen, not a government press release.but he was in Quebec City at the time... Getting ready to go to the tripartite Nafta meeting.
Boris Johnson and Donald Trump...brothers by other mothers? they do seem to cultivate a Look.

6DinadansFriend
Edited: Jun 24, 2016, 10:35 pm

>2 dajashby::
Okay I did look up the Aussie Senate....The Motoring Enthusiasts party? I see that Australia can require a pretty high level of political tap-dancing to get things done.
How do they decide which Senators get to serve half terms?

7timspalding
Jun 25, 2016, 12:00 am

I'd have voted remain. But I find the reaction hyperbolic, in line with the nature of everything these days—every enemy an idiot, every idiot a racist, ever wrong turn a catastrophe.

8Phlegethon99
Jun 25, 2016, 10:51 am

The world will keep on turning, and not much is going to happen until the end of 2018, anyway.

It is my impression however, that Britain is bound to replace being enslaved by Brussels by being enslaved by Washington and the NATO, which is hardly an improvement.

9Rood
Jun 25, 2016, 7:03 pm

The UK gains strength and importance by being "United", but, as 62% of the voters in Scotland favoured remaining in the EU, this vote merely magnifies the fault lines papered over by time and tradition. Look for Scotland to devolve itself from the UK by 2018. Will Northern Ireland and Wales be next?

The vote to leave the EU was won by older, lower income, less educated, married voters, who may now find they've made a choice that will only intensify their problems.

In a few years the "United" Kingdom may well find itself with only a Queen ... of England.

10dajashby
Jun 25, 2016, 7:37 pm

#6
That is a very intelligent question! Here is the answer from the nation's leading election analyst.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-24/which-senators-will-get-a-six-year-term-an...

The obvious consequence is that at the next election the odd bods are likely to be replaced by candidates from the mainstream parties.

Ah, the Motoring Enthusiasts! Ricky Muir was elected on a gaming of the preferences which cannot happen again (changed the system, haven't they?), but he's actually turned out to be intelligent, thoughtful and a real man of the people - the best sort of little Aussie battler. It will be a pity if we see him replaced by Pauline Hanson, Australia's answer to Sara Palin.

11davidgn
Edited: Jun 25, 2016, 8:21 pm

>9 Rood: Yes, it also raises the question: when they said "Tiocfaidh ár lá," was this what they meant?
(Before anyone starts throwing crockery: I'm a half-Irish American from Boston. Republican sympathies come with the territory.)

12madpoet
Jun 25, 2016, 11:04 pm

If Scotland does eventually vote for independence, I wonder if Northern Ireland will seek to join Scotland? There is a long, even ancient, connection between northern Ireland and Scotland. The 'Scots' may originally have come from northern Ireland, and later there were the 'Scots-Irish' or 'Ulster Scots' of the 17th Century who settled there (the reason Northern Ireland is majority Protestant). The connection with Scotland is actually stronger than with England.

13timspalding
Jun 25, 2016, 11:15 pm

>12 madpoet:

Scotland is certainly possible, but all this talk of Northern Ireland is silly. The vote was closer in Northern Ireland—55/44—and the voting patterns map to the Catholic/Protestant divide to a large degree. It's no surprise that Sinn Féin wants to exploit this, but the Protestants aren't going to give up their longstanding position on "reunification" just because of Brexit.

14vy0123
Jun 25, 2016, 11:33 pm

The vote to leave the EU was won by older, lower income, less educated, married voters, who may now find they've made a choice that will only intensify their problems.
A day after the vote a low risk investment had lost $10,000 for a retired couple.

15DinadansFriend
Edited: Jun 26, 2016, 6:38 pm

there is a petition to have another referendum on the Brexit yes or no in GB overall, when I last checked it had 3.0 million signatures, in the referendum there were roughly 33,000,000 votes cast.....the house of Commons MUST Consider any petition of more than 100,000 signatures....this might offer a way out...or a general election with Labour backing a "Remain" platform...Or both big parties backing a remain platform.
It does seem to me and many others a case of not shooting yourself in the foot, but in the head! ulster could try for EU membership on its own, if it secedes as well.
And given the age split in the vote, what if GB goes, and then...reapplies to go back in ten years after the demographics shift?

16dajashby
Jun 27, 2016, 7:34 pm

17BruceCoulson
Jun 27, 2016, 11:39 pm

>5 DinadansFriend:

President Obama.

18DinadansFriend
Jun 28, 2016, 7:48 pm

>17 BruceCoulson::
Or was it DuhDonald Trump?

19dajashby
Jun 28, 2016, 9:08 pm

#18
Well, whoever it was I'm sure he's quite right, it wouldn't have helped. The general public wouldn't have paid the slightest attention, they weren't after all paying attention to their own leaders. If it was Obama they would only have been interested in what FLOTUS was wearing to the State banquet (and how she stacked up against the Duchess of Cambridge).

21madpoet
Jun 29, 2016, 1:07 am

>13 timspalding: Perhaps, but 'union' with which part of Britain, if Scotland separates from England and Wales?

I know, it's unlikely. Just an interesting scenario: 'Greater Scotland'

22timspalding
Jun 29, 2016, 4:08 am

>21 madpoet:

I doubt it. They are going to want the stronger protector.

23dajashby
Jun 29, 2016, 8:24 pm

#22
Protection from what?

24timspalding
Edited: Jun 29, 2016, 9:51 pm

>23 dajashby:

Protection from losing the structures and guarantees adopted in the Good Friday Agreement, after decades of strife and struggle. As things stand, Northern Ireland's Protestants--which include many secularized Protestants and "no religionists"--hold a majority, shown in the fact that the first minister since the Good Friday Agreement has invariably been Protestant, the Deputy First Minister invariably Catholic. (If you add up DUP and UUP, it's larger than Sinn Féinn and SDLP too.) While many Protestants voted "Remain," that doesn't meant they want to ditch the Good Friday Agreement and unify with the Republic of Ireland, where--no doubt--they'd go from the big brother in a power-sharing agreement to a weak minority.

Unification with Scotland isn't going to happen; nobody wants it either. If they did, it would be in direct contravention of the Good Friday Agreement, which every government and political party has promised to abide by.

25dajashby
Jun 30, 2016, 3:02 am

#24
Really, with the greatest respect, the mind boggles at the thought of anybody in Northern Ireland connecting the Brexit vote with unification with Eire. Have you any evidence that it was a consideration at the time of the vote?

As to unification with Scotland, oh puuhleeeese! Why not unification with Canada and have done?

Anyway, is anybody in Ulster even talking about independence? The Scots are making noises, but it's probably a bluff and the EU are at the moment not encouraging them, pointing out that first they've got to secede and then they would have to apply for membership which may or may not be granted. The whole process would take years in any case.

26krolik
Jun 30, 2016, 5:01 pm

>25 dajashby:

Agreed, unification with Scotland isn't going to happen, but Tim is probably addressing memes here, floating around in the chattosphere and bar conversations (I've seen and heard the same). But devolution, never mind the Irish, has regained its legs.

27dajashby
Jun 30, 2016, 11:52 pm

#26
Agreed, but I think the legs might be a bit shaky. Looks like they're heading for a real lawyers' feast!

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2016/jun/27/scottish-labour-seeks-possibilit...

28timspalding
Jul 2, 2016, 3:20 am

>26 krolik:

There have been a lot of newspaper articles conflating the Northern Irish vote and the Scottish. And, of course, the leader of the second-largest NI party has openly proposed it.