Russia: international moves, West responses, Putin's revenge & future 2

Defying history, Moscow moves to defend Soviet war in Afghanistan
Vladimir Kara-Murza | December 4, 2018

...Last month, Russian lawmakers took another big step in the same direction by approving a draft resolution that seeks to justify the Soviet Union’s war in Afghanistan from 1979 to 1989. The formal vote on the measure — proposed jointly by lawmakers from the United Russia and Communist parties — will be held before the 30th anniversary of the withdrawal of Soviet troops on Feb. 15. Hailing the decision, Communist lawmaker Nikolai Kharitonov called it a victory for “historical truth.”

The real historical truth — without quotation marks — was made public with the partial declassification of Soviet archives after 1991. The decision to invade Afghanistan was taken by the Politburo in December 1979; the measure was euphemistically titled “On the situation in ‘A.’ ” The first contingent of the USSR’s 40th Army crossed the Amu Darya River into Afghanistan on Dec. 25. Two days later, the Afghan dictator Hafizullah Amin – whose request for assistance served as the pretext for the invasion — was murdered by Soviet special forces in Tajbeg Palace.

The war lasted for nearly a decade. Among its consequences were 1 million civilian casualties; the rise of Islamist fundamentalist groups (backed by the West as a counterweight to the Soviets); and the collapse of the Soviet economy, which precipitated the end of the Soviet Union, which is now so lamented by both Putin and the Communists. The estimated cost in human lives for the Soviet armed forces was 15,000 dead and 54,000 injured...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2018/12/04/defying-history-moscow-moves-...

ETA______________________________________________________________________

Bumblin' Trump got the memo:

Why Is Trump Spouting Russian Propaganda?
David Frum | Jan 3, 2019

...during the president’s monologue defending his decision to withdraw all 2,000 U.S. troops from Syria and 7,000 from Afghanistan, about half the force in that country.

“Russia used to be the Soviet Union...Afghanistan made it Russia, because they went bankrupt fighting in Afghanistan. Russia … the reason Russia was in Afghanistan was because terrorists were going into Russia. They were right to be there. The problem is, it was a tough fight. And literally they went bankrupt; they went into being called Russia again, as opposed to the Soviet Union. You know, a lot of these places you’re reading about now are no longer part of Russia, because of Afghanistan...The reason Russia was in Afghanistan was because terrorists were going into Russia. They were right to be there."

To appreciate the shock value of Trump’s words, it’s necessary to dust off some Cold War history. Those of us who grew up in the last phases of the Cold War used to know it all by heart, but I admit I had to do a little Googling to refresh my faded memories...(read!)

...Putin-style glorification of the Soviet regime is entering the mind of the president, inspiring his words and—who knows—perhaps shaping his actions. How that propaganda is reaching him—by which channels, via which persons—seems an important if not urgent question. But maybe what happened yesterday does not raise questions. Maybe it inadvertently reveals answers.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/01/trump-just-endorsed-ussrs-inva...

>1 margd: Did you watch Rachel Maddow last night? Very, very interesting. This isn't the first time he threw out a non sequitur that could only have come from a Russian mosquito buzzing in his ear.

Forward to time 18:05

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GfO5ihYlCq0

Incredible, isn't it, that we're headed into third year of Trump without an end in sight...
(Maddow is wonderful!)

From the National Review:

Trump Keeps Giving Mueller Reasons to Pursue the ‘Collusion’ Probe
Andrew C. McCarthy | January 5, 2019
https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/mueller-probe-trump-russia-collusion/

Does the government shutdown take away any funding from Mueller & hamper the process?

>5 DugsBooks: Not at all.

The special counsel’s office is “funded from a permanent indefinite appropriation and would be unaffected in the event of a shutdown,” a Justice Department spokesman told The Hill.

https://thehill.com/policy/national-security/422489-mueller-investigation-will-n...

One Russian in Four Lacks an Indoor Toilet, One of Many Signs There are Now ‘Four Distinct Russias’
Paul Goble | January 7, 2019)

...only 62.7 percent of the Russian population has the usual accoutrements of modern existence – water in the house, plumbing, heating and gas or electric ranges, Rosstat says, a fact that must seem incredible to those who visit only Moscow or St. Petersburg but a fact of life for those who lives beyond the ring roads of the capitals.

...“a real demographic reformatting of Russia is taking place,” as a result of which everything and everyone is being concentrated within “a radius of 200 kilometers around Moscow.” Russians are leaving everywhere else. Consequently, within this century, we will see the disintegration of Russia.

And what is the most horrible thing about this, (Russian blogger Oleg Borovsky) concludes, is that “those chiefly responsible for this process are located inside of Russia” because “what is taking place in Russia is the result of the absolutely insane, inept and incompetent administration of the country.”...

http://russialist.org/one-russian-in-four-lacks-an-indoor-toilet-one-of-many-sig...

Russia in Africa: Is it becoming a key player? (BBC)

Robert Reich @RBReich | 11:31 PM - 13 Jan 2019:

The next time you hear Trump claim that he's "tough" on Russia, remember that he has:
--Weakened NATO and the EU
--Given Putin cover on Crimea
--Repeated Kremlin talking points
--Ignored election interference
--Lifted sanctions on key oligarch
--Disregarded US intelligence

ETA____________________________________

Rachel Maddow MSNBC @maddow | 1/14/2019:

Senator Chuck Schumer will force a Senate vote tomorrow on whether or not the Trump Admin should be lifting sanctions on companies associated with Russian Oligarch Oleg Deripaska. Dear Colleague Letter (excerpt) below...

"We should not be providing sanctions relief to Vladimir Putin's trusted agent before the conclusion of Special Counsel Robert Mueller's investigation. Mr. Deripaska has deep ties to President Putin and the Russian government and possible links to a range of criminal activity."

Perhaps Trump Whisperer suggested a spending target that America's NATO allies can't or won't meet as a means of breaking up NATO?
(Then perched in E Germany, Poutine must well recall that Reagan's arms spending was a strategy for ending Cold War and bringing about demise of USSR:
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2004/06/how-reagan-won-the-cold-war.html. )

Trump Discussed Pulling U.S. From NATO, Aides Say Amid New Concerns Over Russia
Julian E. Barnes and Helene Cooper | Jan. 14, 2019

WASHINGTON — There are few things that President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia desires more than the weakening of NATO, the military alliance among the United States, Europe and Canada that has deterred Soviet and Russian aggression for 70 years.

Last year, President Trump suggested a move tantamount to destroying NATO: the withdrawal of the United States.

Senior administration officials told The New York Times that several times over the course of 2018, Mr. Trump privately said he wanted to withdraw from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Current and former officials who support the alliance said they feared Mr. Trump could return to his threat as allied military spending continued to lag behind the goals the president had set...

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/14/us/politics/nato-president-trump.html

Huh. McConnell's grip seems to be slipping.

Senate Republicans rebuke McConnell, Trump on Russia sanctions resolution

In a remarkable rebuke of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and the White House, eleven Republicans on Tuesday joined with unanimous Democrats to keep alive a resolution opposing the Trump administration's decision to diminish sanctions against Russia.
...
The Republican-controlled Senate voted 57 to 42 against the attempt by McConnell, R-Ky., to table the resolution crafted by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y. The Republicans who defied McConnell on the procedural vote were Sens. Joe Kennedy, Susan Collins, Marco Rubio, John Boozman, Tom Cotton, Steve Daines, Cory Gardner, Josh Hawley, Ben Sasse, Martha McSally and Jerry Moran.
...
In the new Congress, the Republican Senate has failed three times to begin debate on a measure backed by McConnell. But the first measure on which the Senate actually was able to begin debate in the new Congress is the one backed by Schumer.

Laura Litvan @LauraLitvan (Bloomberg News) | 10:13 AM - 16 Jan 2019:

NEW: Senate just BLOCKED a Chuck Schumer measure that would prevent the Trump admin from lifting sanctions on three firms linked to Russian oligarch and Putin ally Oleg Deripaska.

The vote in the GOP-led Senate was 57-42, short of the 60 needed to move it to a final vote.
.
.
.
These 11 Republicans voted with Democrats to advance the Schumer resolution related to sanctions on Russian firms

*Boozman
*Collins
*Cotton
*Daines
*Gardner
*Hawley
*Kennedy
*Moran
*McSally
*Rubio
*Sasse

Adam Schiff @RepAdamSchiff | 10:48 AM - 17 Jan 2019:

The House JUST voted 362-53 to disapprove of lifting sanctions on companies tied to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska.

The sanctions were imposed last year in response to Russian malign action at home and in Ukraine. Nothing since justifies their removal.

"The House JUST voted 362-53 to disapprove of lifting sanctions on companies tied to Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska."

' Unfortunately'--or fortunately, depending on one's point of view--the Congress does not decide such matters. The president does.* So, Trump's sole "vote" "trumps" the 362 votes which express the sentiments of the House.

Not that the sanctions, in this instance, ought to be lifted and not that Russian oligarch Oleg Deripaska isn't a scumbag who very well deserves the sanctions. It's just that this is the president's call to make, not that of Congress.

Again, his detractors just can't get over the fact that Trump, not Hillary Clinton, was elected president of the United States.
______________________

Our Elites’ Selective Support for Democracy
_____________________________________
The hypocrisy on daily display in London and Washington of late has become difficult to stomach. | By ANDREW J. BACEVICH • January 17, 2019 |


(Westminster Parliament Building, London Maridav/shutterstock and U.S. Capitol, Washington (Wikimedia Commons))

“The ongoing parallel crises in the United Kingdom and the United States invite us to contemplate unwelcome truths about the nature of politics in the 21st century. In both countries, deep divisions have resulted in paralysis. In both, that paralysis represents something more profound: disagreement over the meaning and proper conduct of contemporary democracy. Yet there is little evidence that elites on either side of the Atlantic understand the actual problem at hand. Hence, the likelihood that it will fester.

“In a nominal sense, their immediate problem centers on Brexit—how, or even whether, to honor the results of a 2016 national referendum in which a majority of voting Britons signaled their wish to leave the European Union. In a nominal sense, our immediate problem is a government shutdown. Yet overshadowing that shutdown is a persistent unwillingness to accept as legitimate the results of the 2016 presidential election in which Americans voted for Donald Trump in numbers sufficient to give him a majority in the Electoral College.

“In both, the outcome of what was a manifestly democratic process confounded elite expectations. What happened wasn’t supposed to happen. In a few short months, the onward march towards a multicultural society and an integrated global order, with well-refined products of a carefully vetted and suitably diverse meritocracy pulling the strings, had been stopped in its tracks.”

“Whether the imagined utopia of a dominant Great Britain prior to 1914 or a dominant America after 1945 ever actually existed is beside the point. In 2016, large numbers of citizens in both countries concluded that the solution to their complaints was to be found in reasserting national independence, with Britain breaking free of the EU and the United States severing entanglements that have cost plenty without delivering discernible benefits.

“When similar assertions of the popular will occurred in other countries—the protesters flooding Tiananmen Square in 1989, the crowds in Red Square that helped defeat the attempted putsch of August 1991, the 2011 uprising known as the Arab Spring—British and American elites cheered. At such moments, they are all-in for democracy. Yet when the exercise of democracy at home yields outcomes likely to affect their interests adversely, they sing a different tune.

“Politics is always fraught with hypocrisy. Yet the hypocrisy on daily display in London and Washington of late has become difficult to stomach. This is especially so when it emanates from quarters that otherwise do not hesitate to chastise other governments for failing to honor democratic principles.

“In a recent op-ed denouncing Brexit, New York Times columnist Roger Cohen wrote, “A democracy that cannot change its mind is not a democracy.” Let’s unpack that. What Cohen really means is this: when a democracy comes to a decision of which I disapprove, there’s always room for a do-over, yet when decisions win my approval, they become permanent and irreversible. So just because Americans elected a president who promised to withdraw from NATO and overturn Roe v. Wade doesn’t mean that such possibilities qualify as worthy of consideration. NATO membership is forever. So, too, are abortion rights.

“It is no doubt true that the United Kingdom and the United States are democracies, with the people allowed some say. But to be more precise, they are curated democracies, with members of an unelected elite policing the boundaries of acceptable opinion and excluding heretics. Members of this elite are, by their own estimation, guardians of truth and good sense. They know what is best.” …

(emphasis in bold-face added)

RELATED ARTICLES:

"What Made the Brexit Revolution" |
Britain’s elites would never have left the EU without pressure from the working class.
By DAVID A. COWAN • March 29, 2017

"How Democracy is Losing the World" |
By PATRICK J. BUCHANAN • December 11, 2018, 12:01 AM

___________________________________________

*

(Congressional Research Service (CRS) Reports)

Iran: U.S. Economic Sanctions and the Authority to Lift Restrictions |
February 4, 2014 – May 10, 2018 (R43311)

... ...

Authority to Waive or Lift Economic Sanctions

The ability to impose or ease economic sanctions with some nimbleness and responsiveness to changing events is key to effective use of the tool in furtherance of national security or foreign policy objectives. Historically, both the President and Congress have recognized this essential requirement and have worked together to provide the President substantial flexibility. In the collection of laws that are the statutory basis for the U.S. economic sanctions regime on Iran, the President retains, in varying degrees, the authority to tighten and relax restrictions.

The President has the authority to impose a wide range of economic sanctions under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA)—the authority on which sanctions-initiating executive orders are most often based.19 Using these statutes, the President maintains that Iran poses an "unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States…."20 On March 15, 1995, President William Clinton declared that Iran's proliferation activities posed a threat to the United States that constituted a national emergency; this declaration has been renewed annually since 1995, as required by statute, and is the basis for subsequent executive orders that have expanded restrictions on economic relations with Iran.21 If or when President Trump restores the provisions of the executive orders that President Obama had revoked to implement the U.S. responsibilities under the JCPOA (see Table 4), he is likely to cite the 1995 national emergency as the legal basis for his actions.

In the Comprehensive Iran Sanctions, Accountability, and Divestment Act of 2010 (CISADA; P.L. 111-195, as amended; 22 U.S.C. 8501 et seq.),22 Congress grants to the President the authority to terminate most of the sanctions imposed on Iran in that act as well as those provided for in the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012 (P.L. 112-158; 22 U.S.C. 8701 et seq.), and Iran Freedom and Counter-proliferation Act of 2012 (P.L. 112-239; 22 U.S.C. 8801 et seq.). Before terminating these sanctions, however, the President must certify that the government of Iran has ceased its engagement in the two critical areas of terrorism and weapons, as set forth in Section 401 of CISADA—

SEC. 401 (22 U.S.C. 8551). GENERAL PROVISIONS.

(a) Sunset.—The provisions of this Act (other than sections 105 and 305 and the amendments made by sections 102, 107, 109, and 205) shall terminate, and section 13(c)(1)(B) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, as added by section 203(a), shall cease to be effective, on the date that is 30 days after the date on which the President certifies to Congress that—

(1) the Government of Iran has ceased providing support for acts of international terrorism and no longer satisfies the requirements for designation as a state sponsor of terrorism (as defined in section 301) under—

(A) section 6(j)(1)(A) of the Export Administration Act of 1979 (50 U.S.C. App. 2405(j)(1)(A)) (or any successor thereto);

(B) section 40(d) of the Arms Export Control Act (22 U.S.C. 2780(d)); or

(C) section 620A(a) of the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 (22 U.S.C. 2371(a)); and

(2) Iran has ceased the pursuit, acquisition, and development of, and verifiably dismantled its, nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons and ballistic missiles and ballistic missile launch technology.

(b) Presidential Waivers.—

(1) In general.—The President may waive the application of sanctions under section 103(b), the requirement to impose or maintain sanctions with respect to a person under section 105(a), 105A(a), 105B(a), or 105C(a) the requirement to include a person on the list required by section 105(b), 105A(b), 105B(b), or 105C(b), the application of the prohibition under section 106(a), or the imposition of the licensing requirement under section 303(c) with respect to a country designated as a Destination of Diversion Concern under section 303(a), if the President determines that such a waiver is in the national interest of the United States.

... ... ...

Legislation and Executive Orders

...

"These and other authorities have been applied to Iran. It is unlikely that these statutes would be amended if and when they no longer apply to Iran. Sanctions authorized by these statutes are applied, and lifted, by executive branch decision.

"On the other hand, because the President holds sole authority to renew, alter, and revoke executive orders he issues pursuant to the National Emergencies Act (NEA) and the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), Table 2 includes actions taken that are specific to Iran and also actions taken that are not specific to Iran (e.g., Executive Order 13224 and 13382 target terrorists and proliferators, respectively) but have been applied to that country. The authorities in these orders have been exercised to affect Iran in a significant way. Executive orders are subject to their underlying statutory authorities: economic sanctions are most often based on the President's authorities established in IEEPA. These are applied and lifted by the President;

(emphasis addded)

Nastya Rybka: Russia seizes model who made Trump collusion claim (BBC)

A Belarusian model who said she had evidence of Russian collusion with Donald Trump's election campaign is now in Russian police custody.

Polina Ivanova (Reuters) @polina__ivanova | 4:33 AM - 21 Jan 2019:
(see screenshot of board game at https://twitter.com/polina__ivanova)
so apparently this is a board game called 'our guys in Salisbury', with guys in hazmat suits at the finish line


Mr Tether in rain @BabblingRobot | 5:17 AM - 21 Jan 2019:
@polina__ivanova
Goodnight Chernobyl moon.
Goodnight radiation house.
Goodnight melted phone.
Goodnight glowing milk.
Goodnight bleeding grandpa's eyes.
Goodnight two-headed cat.
Goodnight nobody.
Goodnight blocks and blocks and blocks of nobody.
The end.
5:17 AM - 21 Jan 2019

Russian prostitute offering Trump info moved from Thai fire to Russian frying pan.
Sounds like poor little thing has been offered polonium tea:

'Nastya Rybka' To Remain In Custody, Apologizes To Deripaska
January 19, 2019 18:57 GMT

A Moscow court on January 19 extended for three days the custody of Anastasia Vashukevich, also known as Nastya Rybka, who was detained at Moscow's Sheremetyevo Airport on Thursday (January 17) on suspicion of "enticement into prostitution." Vashukevich, whose reported relationship with Russian billionaire Oleg Deripaska put her at the center of a geopolitical scandal, spoke to reporters in the courtroom and apologized to Deripaska, pledging not to publish any audio recordings of him that she had previously said she possessed.

See video at https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-moscow-court-nastya-rybka/29719532.html

____________________________________________________________

Meanwhile, her onetime sugar daddy makes out like bandit:

Russian Oligarch and Allies Could Benefit From Sanctions Deal, Document Shows
Kenneth P. Vogel | Jan. 21, 2019

WASHINGTON — When the Trump administration announced last month that it was lifting sanctions against a trio of companies controlled by an influential Russian oligarch, it cast the move as tough on Russia and on the oligarch, arguing that he had to make painful concessions to get the sanctions lifted.

But a binding confidential document signed by both sides suggests that the agreement the administration negotiated with the companies controlled by the oligarch, Oleg V. Deripaska, may have been less punitive than advertised.

The deal contains provisions that free him from hundreds of millions of dollars in debt while leaving him and his allies with majority ownership of his most important company, the document shows....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/21/us/politics/oleg-deripaska-russian-sanctions....

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Meanwhile rich Russian women head to Miami to bear their babies.

Miami Has Russian Baby Boom, As Expectant Mothers Head There To Give Birth
JakeThomas 1/21/2019

...According to Bloomberg News, Russian mothers-to-be are heading to Florida in growing numbers, despite factors like the “weakness of the ruble, the tense relations between Russia and the U.S., the hurdles that have to be scaled to get a visa.”

...What they are doing is completely legal, as long as they don't lie on any immigration or insurance paperwork. In fact, it's protected by the 14th amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which says anyone born on American soil is automatically a citizen.

The child gets a lifelong right to live and work and collect benefits in the U.S. And when they turn 21 they can sponsor their parents' application for an American green card.

...many of the wealthy Russian women coming to Miami to give birth stay in Trump’s very own property

...condo buildings that bear the Trump name are the most popular for the out-of-town obstetric patients, although the units are subleased from the individual owners and it's not clear if building management is aware.

...Women from countries other than Russia tend to gravitate toward cities other than Miami. For women with roots in the former Soviet Union, it’s Miami; if they’re affluent, it’s Sunny Isles Beach, called Little Russia because so many of its 22,000 residents hail from that part of the world.

...The biggest deterrent (for Russians): They’d have to start paying personal income taxes that are more than double what they are in Russia...

https://mavenroundtable.io/theintellectualist/news/miami-has-russian-baby-boom-a...

Nastya Rybka: Model who got caught up in the Trump-Russia row (BBC)

America’s Electric Grid Has a Vulnerable Back Door—and Russia Walked Through It
Rebecca Smith and Rob | Jan. 10, 2019

A Wall Street Journal reconstruction of the worst known hack into the nation’s power system reveals attacks on hundreds of small contractors

One morning in March 2017, Mike Vitello’s work phone lighted up. Customers wanted to know about an odd email they had just received. What was the agreement he wanted signed? Where was the attachment?

https://www.wsj.com/articles/americas-electric-grid-has-a-vulnerable-back-dooran...

ETA______________________________________________________________

Cyberattacks: China and Russia can disrupt US power networks warns intelligence report
Steve Ranger | January 29, 2019

Countries could launch damaging attacks against gas pipelines and electricity grid, says assessment...

https://www.zdnet.com/article/cyber-attacks-china-and-russia-can-disrupt-us-powe...

ETA______________________________________________________________

Pipelines, power grid vulnerable to cyber attack by China, Russia (7:00)

Rebecca Smith, national energy reporter for The Wall Street Journal, talks with Rachel Maddow about the U.S. intelligence community's assessment that key energy infrastructure like pipelines and the power grid are vulnerable to cyber attacks by Russia and China.Jan. 30, 2019

http://www.msnbc.com/rachel-maddow/watch/pipelines-power-grid-vulnerable-to-cybe...
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Maddow got Wikileaks' attention! Note on behalf of Russia, not China...

WikiLeaks @wikileaks | 3:01 PM - 31 Jan 2019:
U.S. largest audience TV host, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow (Democratic party aligned) this evening: Russia will freeze you and your family to death.

ETA______________________________________________________________

Dan Coats, Director of National Security
Statement for the Record (42 p)
Senate Select Committee on Intelligence
Jan 29, 2019
https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/2019-ATA-SFR---SSCI.pdf

>19 margd: I can only hope that we have the same ability on their systems.

' Unfortunately'--or fortunately, depending on one's point of view--the Congress does not decide such matters. The president does.* So, Trump's sole "vote" "trumps" the 362 votes which express the sentiments of the House.

If Congress passed a bill that decided the matter, they could override the President. The President's authority in this area exists because Congress gave it to him. They could, via legislation, take that decision away from him as well.

This piece by Masha Gessen is worth a read.

>22 krolik: When we think about a normal state, Magyar told me, “the assumption is that the state acts in the public interest, and if that doesn’t happen, that’s a deviation.” That is true of how we think about democracies but also, to a large extent, of how we think about dictatorships as well: the dictator positions himself as the arbiter and sole representative of the national interest.

It seems to me that this is a very flawed assumption. I can think if very few dictators who I would assume to be acting in the interests of anyone other than themselves.

And most democratic politicians seem to usually place their personal careers, and party loyalties, above the national interest.

I think it is a better analysis to assume that most, although certainly not all, politicians act in the national interest most of the time simply because failure to do so tends to have negative consequences for them personally.

So if Russia and Hungary are, q.v. Luke Harding and Bálint Magyar, "Mafia States", then the description's aptness is determined by the degree to which their leaders operate through parallel organisations of personal connections, rather than through the official political infrastructure.

>22 krolik: I think another payoff for the Russian godfather is disarray in the American system as vengeance for perceived interference in Russian election (Clinton)? Also, disrespect by Obama? (I never understood why Obama publicly dissed Russia as a "regional power". No gain, and he certainly must have incentivized Russian godfather to do what he could to regain perception of himself as leader of a great power?)

>23 -pilgrim-:, >24 margd:

Yes, fair enough. I also think that Gessen might underestimate the persistence of some Soviet attitudes in Putin himself, regarding spheres of influence, even if some mafiosi peers have turned the page and are quite happy to do their banking in Cyprus or London and elsewhere, and go on holiday in Tenerife.

'Useful idiot' delivers as directed. Russia responds as it no doubt had already planned, leaving no opportunity for US to reconsider and maybe attempt other measures. Ronald Reagan turns in grave?

'Quid pro quo': Russia suspends INF nuclear treaty after US move
February 2, 2019

Vladimir Putin says Russia will abandon key nuclear arms treaty in a mirror response to US decision.
an hour ago

..."We will respond quid pro quo," Putin said during a televised meeting with foreign and defence ministers, Sergey Lavrov and Sergei Shoigu.

"Our American partners have announced they were suspending their participation in the treaty and will do the same. They have announced they will conduct research and development, and we will act accordingly."

The Russian leader instructed the military to work on developing new land-based weapons that were previously banned by the pact, but said Moscow will not increase its military budget for the new weapons.

However, he said Russia would not deploy them in the European part of the country or elsewhere unless the US does so.

He also ordered ministers not to initiate disarmament talks with Washington, accusing the US of being slow to respond to such moves...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2019/02/pro-quo-russia-suspends-inf-nuclear-treat...

>26 margd: However, he said Russia would not deploy them in the European part of the country or elsewhere unless the US does so.

Probably won't happen any way if his royal orangeness makes good his threat to exit NATO.

A useful idiot...

Congress braces for Trump diverting military construction money to build the wall
Erica Werner and Karoun Demirjian | February 4, 2019

...domestic blowback, which could surface in numerous states, including some critical to Trump’s 2020 reelection prospects, has led to expectations among congressional aides in both parties that Trump could go after overseas construction projects first. A significant portion of that money is dedicated to projects that are part of the European Deterrence Initiative, an effort to help U.S. allies in Europe shore up their defenses against Russia.

The military construction budget dedicates around $800 million in the 2019 budget year toward the initiative, which was created, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, to bolster the U.S. presence in Eastern Europe. The money pays for staging areas, refueling stations and other efforts aimed at helping NATO allies defend against encroaching Russian threats and is considered a crucial part of the security alliance that Trump has often jeered as he suggests partner nations have not contributed enough to cooperative defense...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/congress-braces-for-trump-diverting-mil...

US boyfriend of Russian agent Maria Butina charged with fraud (Guardian)

Paul Erickson, who arranged high-level NRA visit to Moscow, allegedly cheated investors out of thousands

>30 BucketLegs: spam profile

26-28, contd. US, France, Russia all fired off missiles within few hours of each other...
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1083676/world-war-3-russia-US-France-nuclea...

And his orangeness, all alone in the White House, is facing a lot of pressure of Mueller and House-investigation variety...

Third Skripal Suspect Linked to 2015 Bulgaria Poisoning
Bellingcat Investigation Team | February 7, 2019

...a third Russian GRU officer, who was in the United Kingdom at the time of the Skripals’ Novichok poisoning in March 2018, arrived in Bulgaria just days before a local entrepreneur and his son became seriously ill after being poisoned with an unidentified substance.

The third man, a 45-year-old Russian travelling under the alias Sergey Vyacheslavovich Fedotov, has been conclusively identified by Bellingcat as a senior GRU officer. Like the other two Skripal suspects, GRU officers Anatoliy Chepiga and Alexander Mishkin, his cover identity was created in 2010, with no prior records of a person with this name ever existing.

...On April 24, 2015, “Sergey Fedotov” arrived on a flight from Moscow to the Bulgarian seaside resort of Burgas. He had a return flight for a week later, on April 30, from the capital city of Sofia back to Moscow. However, he did not show up for the return flight. Instead, late on the evening of April 28th, he showed up at Istanbul’s Ataturk airport and bought a last-minute ticket to a flight to Moscow.

Earlier that day, a Bulgarian entrepreneur, Emilian Gebrev, was hospitalized after collapsing at a reception he was hosting in Sofia. At around the same time, his adult son and one of the executives at his company fell suddenly ill. All three were hospitalized with symptoms of severe poisoning. Emilian Gebrev’s condition quickly deteriorated and he fell into a coma. Doctors surmised that the poison had been applied or consumed in the day or days preceding April 28.

...Mr. Gebrev could think of two hypothetical reasons why he might have been targeted. One was his company’s exports of specialized defense-related equipment to Ukraine, which he said he conducted in strict compliance with Bulgarian and European regulations. Another hypothesis, he conceded, was possible interest by Russia in a weapons manufacturing plant he controlled that was seen as strategic importance to Bulgaria and NATO.

https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2019/02/07/third-skripal-suspect-l...

David Clark @David_K_Clark | 11:25 PM - 21 Feb 2019:

Huge story breaking in Italy. Putin agreed to a request from Lega Nord leader Matteo Salvini to covertly finance his Euro election campaign. The plan was to conceal the payment behind an apparently normal business deal. Sound familiar?

Esclusivo - La trattativa segreta per finanziare con soldi russi la Lega di Matteo Salvini
di Giovanni Tizian e Stefano Vergine | 21 febbraio 2019

Tre milioni di tonnellate di gasolio da vendere a un'azienda italiana: così il piano della Russia per sostenere i sovranisti alle prossime Europee si maschera da scambio commerciale. Il negoziato, condotto da un fedelissimo del vicepremier italiano, su L'Espresso in edicola domenica 24 febbraio

http://espresso.repubblica.it/inchieste/2019/02/20/news/esclusivo-lega-milioni-r... … via @espressonline

Russia: US asks for advice on North Korea talks
Associated Press | February 25, 2019 at 5:13 AM

MOSCOW — Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov says the United States has asked Moscow’s advice in dealing with North Korea before a summit between President Donald Trump and the North Korean leader.

...Lavrov, who is also visiting Vietnam this week...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/russia-us-asks-for-advice-on-n...

After Putin's warning, Russian TV lists nuclear targets in U.S.

MOSCOW, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Russian state television has listed U.S. military facilities that Moscow would target in the event of a nuclear strike, and said that a hypersonic missile Russia is developing would be able to hit them in less than five minutes.

The targets included the Pentagon and the presidential retreat in Camp David, Maryland.

The report, unusual even by the sometimes bellicose standards of Russian state TV, was broadcast on Sunday evening, days after President Vladimir Putin said Moscow was militarily ready for a "Cuban Missile"-style crisis if the United States wanted one.

With tensions rising over Russian fears that the United States might deploy intermediate-range nuclear missiles in Europe as a Cold War-era arms-control treaty unravels, Putin has said Russia would be forced to respond by placing hypersonic nuclear missiles on submarines near U.S. waters.

>36 2wonderY: That was a useful treaty. Shame it got Trumped.

This is also a shame:
https://consortiumnews.com/2019/02/14/the-most-dangerous-weapon-ever-rolls-off-t...

Wonder how Anastasia Vashukevich (aka Nastya Rybka), a Belarusian escort who claimed to have knowledge of Russian election interference, is doing, poor thing...

Bill Browder @Billbrowder | 7:01 AM - 16 Mar 2019:
More horrifying details from the Italian press on the suspected poisoning of Iman Fadil who was a witness against former Italian PM Silvio Berlusconi (Putin’s best friend). “They said she had died after a "month of agony".

Ruby witness Imane Fadil dies, said was poisoned
Murder probe opened
Redazione ANSA Milan | 15 March 2019
http://www.ansa.it/english/newswire/english_service/2019/03/15/ruby-witness-iman...

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Witness in Berlusconi’s bunga-bunga trial ‘poisoned’
Tom Kington | March 16 2019

Iman Fadil died before she could give evidence in court

A Moroccan-born model who attended Silvio Berlusconi’s bunga-bunga dinners has died in hospital, allegedly killed by radioactive poisoning...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/200684ec-4781-11e9-924d-9729bcd51a7f

Fri, 15 March 2019
Bill Browder and Jago Russell Debate Interpol and Authoritarian Governments (49:00 podcast)

Bill Browder, human rights campaigner and foe of Vladimir Putin, seems to get arrested whenever he travels abroad as a result of red notices and diffusion orders issued by Putin through the Interpol police organization. These incidents have highlighted the abuse of Interpol by authoritarian governments, and they raise a really important question: Should we be participating in an international police organization with governments that use that organization to harass and arrest their enemies?

On this episode of The Lawfare Podcast, Benjamin Wittes speaks with two people with somewhat different points of view, although a lot of common ground: Bill Browder himself, along with Jago Russell, the head of Fair Trials ( https://www.fairtrials.org/campaign/interpol ), which has worked to reform Interpol and make it less susceptible to abuse. Bill argues for kicking the bums out and having police cooperation only between countries that observe civilized norms of law enforcement. Jago makes the case for mending, not ending, an inclusive international police organization...

http://lawfare.libsyn.com/bill-browder-and-jago-russell-debate-interpol-and-auth...

Magnitsky and Browder are two brave guys!

CAFE: Stay Tuned with Preet (Bharara)
Seeking Justice for Sergei Magnitsky (with Bill Browder)*

https://www.cafe.com/stay-tuned-seeking-justice-for-sergei-magnitsky-with-bill-b...

--------------------------------------------------------------------

*Webby Award for Best Individual Podcast Episode:
https://www.webbyawards.com/winners/2019/podcasts-digital-audio/features/best-in...

Trump Tells Putin ‘Don't Meddle in the Election’
Margaret Talev, Jennifer Jacobs, and Ilya Arkhipov | June 28, 2019

Donald Trump lightheartedly asked Russian President Vladimir Putin not to interfere in the upcoming U.S. election during a meeting at the Group of 20 summit, their first since Special Counsel Robert Mueller documented alleged Kremlin efforts to manipulate the 2016 vote.

Prompted by a reporter’s question about whether Trump would warn Putin against future election meddling, Trump said: “Of course I will.”

“Don’t meddle in the election, president,” Trump then told Putin, pointing his finger at his Russian counterpart. “Don’t meddle in the election,” he repeated.

Putin smiled at first, and turned to his translator. After she told him what Trump had said, he laughed. Trump looked at Putin, shook his head and smiled.

...Trump complained to Putin about what he calls “fake news” in the U.S.

“You don’t have this problem in Russia -- we have, you don’t have it,” he said.

Putin, who has cracked down on the independent media in his country, responded in English: “Yes, yes we have too. The same.”

...Trump has repeatedly disputed the consensus of U.S. intelligence officials that the Kremlin interfered in the 2016 election, and has often chided reporters who ask whether he’ll warn Putin against further meddling in 2020.

“What I say to him is none of your business,” he told reporters on Wednesday before departing for the summit in Osaka, Japan.

...Trump canceled a meeting with Putin before November’s G-20, citing Russia’s capture of Ukrainian ships and sailors in a Black Sea naval clash. Russia has yet to release them.

“Haven’t discussed them, haven’t discussed them,” Trump said of the Ukrainian ships and sailors during Friday’s meeting.

“We haven’t seen each other for a long time since the Helsinki meeting,” Putin said through a translator. “However, our staffers had been working and gave us a good opportunity to continue what we agreed on.”

...Putin invited Trump to visit Russia next year for the 75th anniversary of the end of World War Two, Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said that during the meeting. Trump “reacted very positively,” he said.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the mood of the meeting was “very good, atmosphere is constructive.”

“President Trump said that he would order his staffers who were at the meeting to work with Russian colleagues” on economic and “strategic stability” issues, he said.

...Afterward, the White House said in a statement that the two leaders “reviewed the state of the bilateral relationship between the United States and Russia.”

“Both leaders agreed that improved relations between the United States and Russia was in each countries’ mutual interest and the interest of the world,” the White House said in the statement. The presidents agreed the two countries will continue discussion on a 21st century model of arms control, which President Trump stated as needing to include China. The leaders also discussed the situations in Iran, Syria, Venezuela, and Ukraine.”

Since Trump and Putin last met, the America president withdrew from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty, citing violations by Russia. Trump has periodically said he’d like to negotiate a new arms control agreement with Putin.

...most U.S. lawmakers (regard Russia) as acting against American interests across the globe.

Putin has provided military support for Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria and is working with Germany to construct a natural gas pipeline, Nord Stream 2, through the Baltic Sea. Russia is trying to close a deal with Turkey to sell the NATO country an anti-aircraft missile system, a transaction the U.S. has threatened would lead to sanctions against Ankara. And the Kremlin has backed Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, whom the U.S. calls illegitimate and seeks to depose.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-06-28/trump-tells-putin-don-t-meddl...

Putin: Russian president says liberalism 'obsolete'
BBC | 6/28/2019

Vladimir Putin says liberal ideals conflict with the interests of most people...liberalism is "obsolete"...the ideology that has underpinned Western democracies for decades had "outlived its purpose".

The Russian leader also praised the rise of populism in Europe and America, saying ideas like multiculturalism were "no longer tenable".

..."Liberals cannot simply dictate anything to anyone," said Mr Putin, who is on his fourth term as president.

He added that liberalism conflicted with "the interests of the overwhelming majority of the population," and took aim at German Chancellor Angela Merkel for allowing large numbers of refugees to settle in Germany. "This liberal idea presupposes that nothing needs to be done. That migrants can kill, plunder and rape with impunity because their rights as migrants have to be protected."

Mr Putin, 66, also said Russia had "no problems with LGBT persons… but some things do appear excessive to us...They claim now that children can play five or six gender roles...Let everyone be happy, we have no problem with that. But this must not be allowed to overshadow the culture, traditions and traditional family values of millions of people making up the core population."

...Mr Putin also praised US President Donald Trump as a "talented person" who knew how to relate to voters.

But the Russian leader also said American unilateralism was partly to blame for the ongoing trade war between China and the US, and for tensions with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-48795764

"Putin's African Dream and the New Dawn" is a new anthology from Modern Diplomacy. I haven't read it but I post the link in case anyone is interested:

https://mailchi.mp/387c0f8a057c/putins-african-dream-and-the-new-dawn?e=6ffc8777...

Summaries may be of interest to those of us who have not read the original Russian KGB training manuals that informed Putin's early career.

The Lubyanka Files: Textbooks for Putin's Spies (Fundraiser)
Michael Weiss | July 19, 2019

...never-before-published KGB training manuals spanning multiple decades. Once used to train Soviet intelligence officers, these documents are still classified in modern Russia because of their continued curricular use in teaching tradecraft to Vladimir Putin's spies at Russia’s domestic and foreign intelligence academies. They range in content from how to recruit and psychologically manipulate agents on Western soil; how to root out enemy disinformation schemes; how to infiltrate international scientific gatherings to recruit agents; to how to outflank suspected agents provocateurs. These are all methods still used today to undermine the United States and European countries.

..."The Lubyanka Files" will be unveiled over the course of a year, with each calendar month dedicated to the release of a new KGB manual...

...Below are the titles of each manual, their page-length, year of publication, and a brief summary of their contents:

Title: “Visual Intelligence,” 23 pp, 1970...

Title: “Opportunities for use of Psychological Methods,” 45 pp, 1988...

Title: “Exposure of Disinformation in Intelligence Materials,” 46 pp, 1968...

Title: “Trusted Contacts,” 45 pp, 1977...

Title: “Use of International Scientific Events and Exhibitions on USSR Territory,” 82 pp, 1981...

Title: “Konspiratsiya Tradecraft in Intelligence Work,” 32 pp, 1988...

Title: “Methods of Exposing and Battling the Enemy's Agent Provocateurs (Lectures),” 23 pp, 1971...

Title: “Some Aspects of Training of Agents and Psychologically Influencing Foreigners,” 29 pp, 1985...

Title: “Recruiting People to Foreign Intelligence Agencies of the Soviet KGB,” 34 pp, 1972...

Title: “Psychological Types of Targets for Recruiting,” 48 pp, 1987...

Title: “Work with the Agent's Network,” 61 pp, 1970...

https://www.gofundme.com/f/kgb-training-manuals-project

>44 margd: How do these differ from the Mitrokhin Archive?

You'll have to ask someone who dabbles in Russki and KGB. (Someone came to mind but he seems to have purged his site of Russian references.)

Annexing Crimea? Interfering in our elections? Just you never mind--I'll take care of you before they kick my sorry orange ass out of the Oval Office:

Kylie Atwood @kylieatwood | 10:41 PM · Aug 20, 2019:

Scoop: Trump & Macron spoke over the phone today & agreed they wanted to invite Russia to the G7 next year, a sr admin official said. Trump is expected to broach the topic w/ world leaders at the G7. Today Trump told reporters it would be “appropriate” for Russia to re-enter G7.

Trump holds up Ukraine military aid meant to confront Russia
CAITLIN EMMA and CONNOR O’BRIEN | 08/28/2019

...The Trump administration in 2017 approved lethal arms sales to Ukraine, taking a step the Obama administration had never done. The move was seen as a sign that Trump’s government was taking a hard-line approach to a revanchist Vladimir Putin despite the president’s public rhetoric flattering the Russian leader. Scaling back that assistance could expose Trump to allegations that his policies are favoring Moscow.

For the 2019 fiscal year, lawmakers allocated $250 million in security aid to Ukraine, including money for weapons, training, equipment and intelligence support. Specifically, Congress set aside $50 million for weaponry.

Now, that funding is being called into question. The senior administration official, who asked to remain anonymous in order to discuss internal matters, said the president wants to ensure U.S. interests are being prioritized when it comes to foreign assistance, and is seeking assurances that other countries are “paying their fair share.” | Defense Secretary Mark Esper and national security adviser John Bolton are among the officials who were asked to review the Ukraine security funding.

...The funds for Ukraine can’t be spent while they’re under review and the money expires at the Sept. 30 end of the fiscal year. The account was originally created by defense policy legislation enacted in late 2015 to help Ukraine battle pro-Russian separatists in Crimea after Moscow annexed the region in 2014.

...Trump is scheduled to meet this weekend in Warsaw, Poland, with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. (Instead, Trump sent Pence.)

The Trump administration’s broader push to freeze or slash foreign aid that White House officials contend is wasteful has sparked intense bipartisan backlash, with lawmakers warning of a deteriorating relationship with the White House when it comes to the use of appropriated funds...

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/28/trump-ukraine-military-aid-russia-1689...

Russian police raid opposition activists’ homes in 43 cities
NATALIYA VASILYEVA | 9/12/2019

MOSCOW (AP) — Russian police raided the homes and offices of supporters of opposition leader Alexei Navalny in 43 cities on Thursday, his close allies said.

So far, more than 200 raids have taken place across Russia from Vladivostok on the Pacific to Krasnodar in Russia’s south.

Police have also searched the home of Sergei Boyko, a Navalny associate who came second with nearly 20% of the vote in the mayoral election in Russia’s third-largest city of Novosibirsk last Sunday.

...Police appear to be targeting those who were part of Navalny’s 2018 presidential election campaign. Though Navalny wasn’t allowed to run, his supporters in local election headquarters in dozens of Russian cities have grown in force, investigating high-level corruption and mobilizing supporters for opposition rallies.

Many of his allies in the regions ran in local elections last Sunday and monitored the voting, documenting wide-spread violations in some regions like St. Petersburg. They have followed his lead in harnessing new technology including YouTube live broadcasts and slickly produced video investigations.

...(Leonid) Volkov said the raids were linked to their successful election strategy in Moscow which cut the presence of pro-government candidates in the city legislature by a half. Police turned up at all of Navalny’s chapters at 6 a.m. Moscow time despite the vast time difference across the country, which points to a coordinated effort, Volkov said.

Respected election monitoring group Golos also reported that homes of three of its regional coordinators have been raided...

https://apnews.com/967e32974cab4ca99ce347ef6d63c261

You are now under a curse: You will never be released from service as woodcutters and water carriers for the house of my God.
Joshua 9:23

Canada's not nearly as resource-rich as Russia, I think, but there was a concerted attempt in 20th c to diversify the economy with value-added industries--to escape being just "hewers of wood and drawers of water". There was a lot of investment in technology and research. Also, NAFTA, preceded by auto agreement, may have saved Canada from worst of the fate of all too many resource-rich nations? Still, oil tugs at Alberta: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-49899113 .

Rachel Maddow On How Russia's 'Resource Curse' Drove Putin To Election Interference (8:27)
Heard on All Things Considered (October 5, 2019)

Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth by Rachel Maddow

Interview Highlights
On how the "resource curse" (in this case, oil) weakens nations like Russia
On whether the U.S. has a role to play
On what she hopes to accomplish with the book

...regulating big corrosive industries that undermine our democratic processes is part of standing up and bolstering our democracies, that we do actually need to rein in some of these guys.

https://www.npr.org/2019/10/05/767572890/rachel-maddow-on-new-book-blowout

Trump (and his gang) are showing the world that pulling-the-wool-over-the-eyes
of Americans is child's play. This is not a fluke ~ it is probably going to be
par-for-the-course in this Internet era. The American Century has barely lasted
75 years.

We've alienated numerous allies, withdrawn from Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, thrown Kurds under bus, held up aid to Ukraine..
Now Trumpians considering pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty.
What else would Putin have his "useful idiot" do? Withdraw from NATO?

Michael McFaul McFaul | 5:25 PM · Oct 7, 2019:

We are now pulling out of the Open Skies Treaty? Really? Please tell me this can't be true.

https://foreignaffairs.house.gov/_cache/files/4/6/46136e03-1d92-431b-aa31-7d20d2...

______________________________________________________________

US spies say Trump's G7 performance suggests he's either a 'Russian asset' or a 'useful idiot' for Putin
Sonam Sheth | Aug 29, 2019

Analysis banner
Current and former spies are floored by President Donald Trump's fervent defense of Russia at this year's G7 summit in Biarritz, France.

"It's hard to see the bar anymore since it's been pushed so far down the last few years, but President Trump's behavior over the weekend was a new low," one FBI agent who works in counterintelligence told Insider.

At the summit, Trump aggressively lobbied for Russia to be readmitted into the G7, refused to hold it accountable for violating international law, blamed former President Barack Obama for Russia's annexation of Crimea, and expressed sympathy for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

One former senior Justice Department official, who worked closely with the former special counsel Robert Mueller when he was the FBI director, told Insider Trump's behavior was "directly out of the Putin playbook. We have a Russian asset sitting in the Oval Office."

A former CIA operative told Insider the evidence is "overwhelming" that Trump is a Russian asset, but another CIA and NSA veteran said it was more likely Trump was currying favor with Putin for future business deals.

Meanwhile, a recently retired FBI special agent told Insider that Trump's freewheeling and often unfounded statements make it more likely that he's a "useful idiot" for the Russians. But "it would not surprise me in the least if the Russians had at least one asset in Trump's inner circle."...

https://www.businessinsider.com/spies-react-trump-g7-summit-russian-asset-2019-8

________________________________________________________________

US spies say Trump's G7 performance suggests he's either a 'Russian asset' or a 'useful idiot' for Putin
Sonam Sheth | Aug 29, 2019
https://www.businessinsider.com/spies-react-trump-g7-summit-russian-asset-2019-8

Useful Idiot
by trauncher October 29, 2011

If you have never heard the term “useful idiot” it was the attitude held by Vladimir Lenin towards communist sympathizers in the West (America). While Lenin and the Soviets held them in utter contempt they also viewed them as tools for dispensing communist propaganda to other countries, thus infecting foreign cultures with their totalitarian tripe. After their mission was complete, they were no longer “useful.”

It's a term the refers to brainwashed American marxists who blindly support any ideology that gets themselves out of real work and causes others to pay their way.

it also refers to useful idiots who post inaccurate definitions of the term useful idiot on sites like the urban dictionary. while they believe that they are making some sort of statement, they are actually providing perfect examples of the term.
An American who espouses Marxist ideals is a useful idiot.

#usefil idiot#libtard#leftist#marxist#socialist#communist#russia#soviet#fascist#national socialist#nazi

https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Useful%20Idiot

>52 margd:

Urban Dictionary has its uses but shouldn't be used blindly, or one risks being simply an "idiot". That explanation of "useful idiot" is nothing but a right-wing screed without a shred of truth to it.

Not only is there no evidence of the phrase anywhere in Lenin's writing and recorded conversations, the earliest recorded use of it is in the American media decades after Lenin's death and involved Americans pissing on French or Italian communists as far as I recall.

Thanks--wikipedia any better? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Useful_idiot

After hearing Trump referred to more than once as Putin's useful idiot, I was wondering significance of the phrase, if any, beyond the obvious.

>54 margd:

wikipedia any better?

So it's not Lenin now--but Yugoslav Communists?? This is the first time I hear that bizarre story. I note that other-language wikipedias (I glanced at German, Russian and French) don't mention this tale. I call bollocks on it.

Look, the phrase in that purported usage-by-communists is clearly anti-communist propaganda and as far as anyone has figured out, originated by Americans and employed in that usage most enthusiastically by Americans and other conservatives, not leftists. A fake phrase.

Putin may very well think about Trump as a useful idiot but then who wouldn't--he's an idiot and has been useful to many creeps besides Putin. Communism doesn't enter into it. Putin's no communist and Trump isn't fueled by ideology of any sort. He's a narcissistic monster guided only by ego.

From Russia with Blood: The Kremlin's Ruthless Assassination Program and Vladimir Putin's Secret War on the West
Hardcover – November 19, 2019

Unflinchingly documenting the growing web of death on British and American soil, Heidi Blake bravely exposes the Kremlin's assassination campaign as part of Putin's ruthless pursuit of global dominance

Amazon

Happily/surprisingly, my rep disapproved of Ukraine-bashing Russia participating in G7 meetings--
but 71 Rs--including the VP's brother, Jordan, Meadows, Gaetz, Bishop, Brooks, Higgins (but not Nunes?) welcomed Russia back.
Will Moscow Mitch have chance to vote on the resolution?

David Frum @davidfrum | 9:24 PM · Dec 3, 2019
On the motion to disapprove Russia participating in G7 meetings, 71 voted Nay. All Republican.

http://clerk.house.gov/evs/2019/roll643.xml

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

House passes resolution disapproving of Russia being included in future G7 summits
Juliegrace Brufke - 12/03/19

The House on Tuesday passed a resolution disapproving of Russia being included in future Group of Seven (G-7) summits in a 339-71 vote on Tuesday...

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/472905-house-passes-resolution-disapproving-o...

Germany expels Russian diplomats over murder in Berlin

In late August, 40-year-old Zelimkhan Khangoshvili was shot in an "execution-style" killing at Berlin's Kleiner Tiergarten park. The suspect in the case, a 49-year-old Russian national, carried out the drive-by shooting on a bicycle in broad daylight — shooting the victim in the head and chest, prosecutors said.

From the beginning, the killing raised concerns about Russia's intelligence agency possibly being involved. Moscow has denied any involvement in the case.
…
Prosecutors said there is "sufficient evidence" to indicate that the man's murder was carried out on the behalf of the Russian state or by Chechnya.
The German Foreign Ministry also announced that two employees at the Russian Embassy in Berlin had been designated personae non gratae and were expelled.
The names and positions of the diplomats were not given, although the ministry said it took the move after Russian authorities failed to "cooperate sufficiently" in the murder investigation.
Russia's foreign ministry called the move to expel the diplomats an "unfriendly, groundless step" and vowed to respond.

Elisabeth Braw @elisabethbraw | 11:20 AM · Dec 7, 2019
The new nexus: infowar and the armed forces.

46% of US service personnel now see Russia as an ally,
a trend “predominantly driven by Republicans who have responded to positive cues from President Trump about Russia,” @RonaldReagan Institute reports.

Average US pop: 28%.

Pentagon Concerned Russia Cultivating Sympathy Among US Troops
Jeff Seldin | December 08, 2019
https://voanews.com/usa/pentagon-concerned-russia-cultivating-sympathy-among-us-...

How a Poisoning in Bulgaria Exposed Russian Assassins in Europe
Michael Schwirtz | Dec. 22, 2019, 12:01 a.m. ET

For years, members of a secret team, Unit 29155, operated without Western security officials having any idea about their activities. But an attack on an arms dealer in Sofia helped blow their cover.

...The assassination attempts in 2015 were remarkable not only for their brazenness and persistence, but also because security and intelligence officials in the West initially did not notice. Bulgarian prosecutors looked at the case, failed to unearth any evidence and closed it.

Now Western security and intelligence officials say the Bulgaria poisonings were a critical clue that helped expose a campaign by the Kremlin and its sprawling web of intelligence operatives to eliminate Russia’s enemies abroad and destabilize the West.

Entering his third decade in power, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia is pushing hard to re-establish Russia as a world power. Russia cannot compete economically or militarily with the United States and China, so Mr. Putin is waging an asymmetric shadow war. Russian mercenaries are fighting in Syria, Libya and Ukraine. Russian hackers are sowing discord through disinformation and working to undermine elections.

Russian assassins have also been busy.

...Security and intelligence officials are still working to understand how and why the unit is assigned certain targets.

...In recent years, the Kremlin has grown increasingly alarmed as smaller countries have nibbled away at Russia’s dominance in the arms industry.

...Shortly before he was poisoned, Mr. Gebrev tried to buy Dunarit, a large arms production plant in Bulgaria coveted by a Kremlin-backed oligarch....

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/22/world/europe/bulgaria-russia-assassination-sq...

Illuminating discussion at Rachel Maddow's twitter thread. She authored Blowout: Corrupted Democracy, Rogue State Russia, and the Richest, Most Destructive Industry on Earth : https://twitter.com/maddow/status/1213331287618064386

Pressure on Belarus coincidentally timed as US-Iran confrontation spikes oil prices.

Belarus is on Ukraine's western border.

Russia Halts Oil Supplies to Belarus in Push for Closer Ties
The Associated Press | Jan. 3, 2020

MINSK, Belarus — Russia has halted oil supplies to Belarus as talks on strengthening economic ties remained stalled over concerns that Russia could effectively swallow up its neighbor.

In a case that has echoes of Russia's relationship with Ukraine before it annexed the Crimean Peninsula, Belarus' state-owned oil company said Friday that Moscow has stopped supplying crude until contracts for this year are drawn up. Belarus' two main refineries were operating at low capacity, running on reserves.

Later on Friday Belarus suspended its oil exports, which contribute up to 20% of annual GDP. State-owned oil company Belneftekhim said there were enough reserves to cover the country's needs.

...Belarus relies on Russia for more than 80% of its overall energy needs, including gas. Over 90% of its crude oil imports come from Russia. And it has been relying on discounted prices and loans from Russia for more than a quarter century.

But it has one point of leverage: Russia depends on Belarus to ship oil to wealthier markets in the rest of Europe. About 10% of Western Europe's oil supplies come from Russia, via a pipeline transiting Belarus.

The Kremlin has recently increased pressure on its ally, raising energy prices and cutting subsidies. It argues that Belarus should accept closer economic integration if it wants to continue receiving energy resources at Russia's domestic prices.

...Russia had likewise used energy supplies as political leverage to keep Ukraine (Belaurs's eastern neighbor) in its economic orbit and from developing closer ties with Europe...

...There also has been speculation that Putin, who has been in power for nearly two decades, could contemplate a merger with Belarus as a way to stay at the helm of the new union state of Russia and Belarus after his current Russian presidential term expires in 2024.

https://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2020/01/03/business/bc-eu-russia-belarus.html

Russian parliament to review Putin PM pick after shock overhaul
1/15/2020

If approved, tax chief Mikhail Mishustin will have a week to choose a new government and ministers.

...The proposals would be the first significant change to the country's constitution since it was adopted in 1993 and include a referendum on amending the constitution to increase the powers of parliament while maintaining a strong presidential system.

"I consider it necessary to conduct a vote by the country's citizens on an entire package of proposed amendments to the country's constitution," Putin said, without specifying a date for a referendum.

Under the changes, legislators would name prime ministers and cabinet members, decisions currently made by the president.

...Some suggested 67-year-old Putin, who has steered the country since 1999, could be laying the groundwork to assume a new post or remain in a powerful behind-the-scenes role...

...Outlining his plans, Putin noted the "demand for change" among Russians who have seen their incomes stagnate or decrease for five years, while a key reform hiking the pension age has led to anger and a fall in Putin's ratings.

Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev announced the resignation of his government soon after Putin's speech, saying the constitutional proposals would mean significant changes to the country's balance of power.

...Medvedev - who also served as Russia's president for four years from 2008 - is expected to stay close to the Russian leader as deputy head of the country's Security Council, which Putin chairs.

...Putin also said he wanted to tighten the criteria for anyone wanting to become president - anyone wishing to become president must have lived in Russia for the past 25 years.

...Putin is required under the constitution to step down when his current term ends; he will be 71.

..."The proposed changes to the constitution imply the government will actually be appointed by the Russian parliament, which is not how it is now, but at the same time, the president will retain the power to fire the government if he is not satisfied with their performance," said (Aleksandra Godfroid, a journalist in Moscow). "The president will also keep control of the army, police and security, and will be appointing the heads of those services"...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/01/russian-parliament-review-putin-pm-pick-s...

Funny. Just hope ilk and minions don't report them to Poutine:

A Russian prankster glued a massive portrait of President Vladimir Putin to the inside of a residential elevator.
He then placed a camera in the elevator to record people’s reactions.
1:52 ( https://twitter.com/MoscowTimes/status/1226837337923104768 )

- The Moscow Times @MoscowTimes | 6:56 AM · Feb 10, 2020

>63 margd:

That's hilarious!

Six to 18 years in prison for going against Putin's mafia.

Russian antifascist group given 'monstrous' jail terms

Ireland believes Russia sent intel agents to Ireland to map the precise location of the fibre-optic, ocean-bed cables that connect Europe to America.
The cables enable millions of people to communicate/allow financial transactions to take place seamlessly.
- Olga Lautman @olgaNYC1211 | 10:40 PM · Feb 16, 2020

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Russian agents plunge to new ocean depths in Ireland to crack transatlantic cables
John Mooney | February 16 2020

Russia has sent intelligence agents to Ireland to map the precise location of the fibre-optic, ocean-bed cables that connect Europe to America, gardai suspect. This has raised concerns that Russian agents are checking the cables for weak points, with a view to tapping or even damaging them in the future.

Ireland is the landing point for undersea cables which carry internet traffic between America, Britain and Europe. The cables enable millions of people to communicate and allow financial transactions to take place seamlessly...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-agents-plunge-to-new-ocean-depths-in-...

Trump-Putin meeting in Helsinki
per John Bolton's The Room Where It Happened: A White House Memoir:

Bolton: Trump asked his interpreter not to write notes of his meeting with Putin, and Putin wants ⁦@Billbrowder
⁩Image ( https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/1274796066651676673/photo/1 )

- Rupert Myers @RupertMyers | 4:07 PM · Jun 21, 2020

US Sanctions Russian Troll Network (The Sentry)

US Places Sanctions on Russian Prigozhin Network Linked to Violent Suppression of Democratic Protestors in Sudan...

“The continued presence of these Prigozhin-linked companies in Sudan represents a threat to the fledgling democratic transition in the country. The ongoing theft of Sudan’s natural resources is a scandal that the civilian-led government should end immediately”...

US targets Russia group over Libya mines, Sudan suppression (AFP)

The United States on Wednesday accused a Russian mercenary group of laying landmines in and around Tripoli and imposed sanctions over its alleged cooperation with Sudan's ousted dictator...

In Sudan, Prigozhin is accused of running M Invest, which the Treasury Department said was a front for the Wagner Group and was awarded concessions in gold mining by longtime ruler Omar al-Bashir.

It charged that M Invest developed plans for Bashir to suppress protests and carried out social media manipulation to discredit youth-led demonstrators, who started taking to the streets in December 2018 in frustration over economic conditions.

The effort ultimately failed with Bashir toppled in April 2019 after three decades in power and the military ultimately ceding to a transitional authority that involves civilians.

"Yevgeniy Prigozhin and his network are exploiting Sudan's natural resources for personal gain and spreading malign influence around the globe," Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said in a statement.

"The United States remains committed to holding him and other bad actors accountable so Sudan and other countries can operate freely"...

America’s Dying’: Russian Media Is Giddy at Chaos in the USA
‘Trump Is Ours’
Julia Davis | Jul. 30, 2020

From the U.S. troop drawdown in Germany to Trump’s refusal to slam Russia over soldier bounties, Russian state media is jubilant over America acting in the Kremlin’s interests....

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-media-is-giddy-at-chaos-in-the-usa-claims-...

Russian agency created fake leftwing news outlet with fictional editors, Facebook says (Guardian)

The Russian agency that interfered in the 2016 US election created a fake leftwing news publication, staffed it with fake editors with AI-generated photos and hired real freelance reporters as part of a fresh influence operation detected and removed by Facebook, the company said on Tuesday...

With Sudan naval base, Russia may have a 'key to Africa' (Deutsche Welle)

The Kremlin plans to set up a naval base on the Red Sea in Sudan. The prestige project would expand Russia's presence in Africa. That could have global geopolitical implications...

I read a while back that Russia was looking to lock up fossil fuels in n Africa, so that between its pipelines and n Africa resources, Europe would have few (gas?) alternatives. Seems consistent to have naval base as well.

David Frum @davidfrum | 9:12 AM · Dec 12, 2020
A fascinating glimpse of Putin family secrets
https://occrp.org/en/investigations/love-offshores-and-administrative-resources-...
Image ( https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/1337762287830986752/photo/1 )
_________________________________________________-

Wonder what the NY DA and Scotland will find--what Deutsche Bank et al. can tell?

David Sanger @SangerNYT | 6:31 AM · Dec 14, 2020:

Struck by fact that for 6 weeks now @realDonaldTrump and 100+ Republican members of Congress have been talking about a hack that never happened - of the vote. Total silence on the one that did happen: Russian hackers inside the Fed. govt.'s own agencies.
The Treasury Department was one of the agencies targeted by the hackers.

Russian Hackers Broke Into Federal Agencies, U.S. Officials Suspect
In one of the most sophisticated and perhaps largest hacks in more than five years, email systems were breached at the Treasury and Commerce Departments. Other breaches are under investigation.
nytimes.com
_________________________________________________

Cue the Putineers.

>74 margd: contd.

Hack may have exposed deep US secrets; damage yet unknown
FRANK BAJAK | Dec 15, 2020

Some of America’s most deeply held secrets may have been stolen in a disciplined, monthslong operation being blamed on elite Russian government hackers. The possibilities of what might have been purloined are mind-boggling.

Could hackers have obtained nuclear secrets? COVID-19 vaccine data? Blueprints for next-generation weapons systems?

It will take weeks, maybe years in some cases, for digital sleuths combing through U.S. government and private industry networks to get the answers. These hackers are consummate pros at covering their tracks, experts say. Some theft may never be detected.

What’s seems clear is that this campaign — which cybersecurity experts says exhibits the tactics and techniques of Russia’s SVR foreign intelligence agency — will rank among the most prolific in the annals of cyberespionage.

...In the months since the update (that triggered the hack) went out, the hackers carefully exfiltrated data, often encrypting it so it wasn’t clear what was being taken, and expertly covering their tracks.

...President Donald Trump’s national security adviser, Robert O’Brien, cut short an overseas trip (itself a scandalous use of taxpayer dollars for outgoing NSA director) to hold meetings on the hack and was to convene a top-level interagency meeting later this week...

...Earlier, the White House said a coordinating team had been created to respond, including the FBI, the Department of Homeland Security and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

At a briefing for congressional staffers Monday, DHS did not say how many agencies were hacked, a reflection of how little the Trump administration has been sharing with Congress on the case.

Critics have long complained that the Trump administration failed to address snowballing cybersecurity threats — including from ransomware attacks that have hobbled state and local governments, hospitals and even grammar schools...

Trump eliminated two key government positions: White House cybersecurity coordinator and State Department cybersecurity policy chief.

...(Brandon Valeriano, a Marine Corps University scholar and adviser to the Cyber Solarium Commission, which was created by Congress to fortify the nation’s cyber defenses) said one of the few bright spots was the work of Chris Krebs, the head of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, whom Trump fired for defending the integrity of the election in the face of Trump’s false claims of widespread fraud.

Hackers infiltrated government agencies by piggybacking malicious code on commercial network management software from SolarWinds, a Texas company, beginning in March.

The campaign was discovered by the cybersecurity company FireEye when it detected it had been hacked — it disclosed the breach Dec. 8 — and alerted the FBI and other federal agencies. FireEye executive Charles Carmakal said it was aware of “dozens of incredibly high-value targets” infiltrated by the hackers and was helping “a number of organizations respond to their intrusions.” He would not name any, and said he expected many more to learn in coming days that they, too, were compromised.

Carmakal said the hackers would have activated remote-access back doors only on targets sure to have prized data. It is manual, demanding work, and moving networks around risks detection.

The SolarWinds campaign highlights the lack of mandatory minimum security rules for commercial software used on federal computer networks. Zoom videoconferencing software is another example. It was approved for use on federal computer networks last year, yet security experts discovered various vulnerabilities exploitable by hackers — after federal workers sent home by the pandemic began using it.

Rep. Jim Langevin, a Rhode Island Democrat and Cyberspace Solarium Commission member, said the breach...highlights the need for a national cyber director at the White House, a position subject to Senate confirmation. Congress approved such a position in a recently passed defense bill...

https://apnews.com/article/technology-hacking-coronavirus-pandemic-russia-350ae2...

Poor, brave Navalny--Putin has a lot to lose...

Alec Luhn @ASLuhn | 9:33 AM · Jan 19, 2021
With its head @navalny now jailed
@fbkinfo posts its biggest ever investigation into "Putin's palace" near Gelendzhik.
Floorplans seem to suggest it's the biggest home in Russia, with wine cave, theater, gym, pool, "aquadisco" & hockey rink,
& cost $1.35bn https://palace.navalny.com
Image ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1351538317888790530/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1351538317888790530/photo/2 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1351538317888790530/photo/3 )
----------------------------------------------------

More photos in thread--check out Putin's bathroom! ( https://twitter.com/ASLuhn/status/1351538317888790530 )

Trump has similar taste in decor, though more nouveau riche?

Putin's a wolf in sheepskin clothing: Russian president dines al fresco during Siberian photoshoot with his defence minister...
after issuing new 'kill list' of targets including six people living in Britain
Isabella Nikolic and Jack Wright | 21 March 2021

...The six critics in Britain being targeted by the Kremlin are Bill Browder, Christopher Steele, Vladimir Ashurkov, Mikhail Khordorkovsky, Evgeny Chichvarkin and Boris Karpichov.

Mr Steele, 56, is a former MI6 officer who came to global attention after making unsubstantiated claims of Russian spies holding videos of US President Donald Trump with prostitutes.

Mr Browder, also 56, is a long-standing Putin critic and was deported in 2005 after being branded a threat to Russian security.

Mr Ashurkov, 49, was granted asylum by Britain in 2015 after he was forced to step down in his position as an investment banker in Russia because he had ties to Putin's main political opponent, Alexei Navalny.

Mr Khordorkovsky, 57, was charged with fraud in 2003 but freed from jail in 2014 after Amnesty International declared him a prisoner of conscience (someone imprisoned because of their race, sexual orientation, religion, or political views). He has lived in the UK since 2015 and is fighting to secure free and fair elections in Russia.

Mr Chichvarkin, 46, founded Russia's largest mobile phone company, Yevroset and is believed to have paid for Alexei Navalny's medical bills after he was poisoned with a nerve agent last year and treated in a hospital in Germany.

Mr Karpichkov, 62, used to work in the Cold War-era spy service, the KGB, and was a major in its successor, the FSB. He moved to the UK in 1998 and has already survived two poisoning attempts.

The Russian spy who has come forward to warn the world that President Putin's agents are hunting his opponents works for the FSB, Russia's version of the British intelligence agency MI5.

The source, who is understood to be able to mask his identity using complex technology, warned that a Russian special ops team are getting ready to cross into Britain from Ireland. He told the Mirror: 'Due to Covid almost all overseas operations were frozen. Now they are starting to activate them again.'...

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9386089/Putin-grins-sheepskin-Siberian-...

------------------------------------------------------------
ETA:

Vladimir Putin issues new 'kill list' - and six of the targets live in Britain
EXCLUSIVE: The warning of a deadly post-pandemic campaign comes from same spy who alerted that Salisbury novichok victim Sergei Skripal was earmarked for assassination
Nigel Nelson | 20 MAR 2021
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/vladimir-putins-issues-new-kill-2376573...

Springtime, when a bear's thoughts turn to invasion?

Russia’s ex-ambassador to Minsk appointed Secretary of State of Russia-Belarus Union State
Mezentsev will ensure the deepening of brotherly relations between the two countries in the new office, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said
MINSK, March 19.

https://tass.com/politics/1268229
________________________________________________

Fighting Escalates in Eastern Ukraine, Signaling the End to Another Cease-Fire
Andrew E. Kramer | March 30, 2021. Updated March 31, 2021

...four Ukrainian soldiers were killed and another seriously wounded in a battle against Russian-backed separatists in the Donetsk Region of eastern Ukraine...

The soldiers’ deaths, along with a buildup of Russian forces on the border, has seized the attention of senior American officials in Europe and Washington. In the past week, the U.S. military’s European Command raised its watch level from possible crisis to potential imminent crisis — the highest level — in response to the deployment of the additional Russian troops...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/03/30/world/europe/ukraine-russia-fighting.html

Confirmation of what happened to Nikolai Glushkov: Putin critic 'strangled in London home by third party' (BBC News).

Glushkov, killed three years ago while living in London, had reportedly been a close friend of Boris Berezovsky, an oligarch and political opponent of Putin. Berezovsky was found hanged at his Berkshire home in 2013 in an incident the coroner's jury room ruled as suspicious.

A glimpse back at the time of Glushkov's murder (and attempted murders of former Russian spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter): Putin Already Has Trump in a Soviet Sleeper (Vanity Fair, 2018).

Russia orders soldiers to begin return to bases after drills near Ukraine
Reuters | 44/22/2021

Russia ordered its top army command to begin returning troops to their permanent bases inside the country from Friday, saying it had successfully completed a "snap inspection"of forces in its south and west, near the border with Ukraine, the RIA news agency reported...

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-orders-soldiers-begin-return-bases-a...

Russia is still the biggest player in disinformation, Facebook says
Report explores how issue has evolved in recent years
Elizabeth Dwoskin | May 26, 2021

A Facebook report released Wednesday says that Russia is still the largest producer of disinformation, a notable finding just five years after Russian operatives launched a far-reaching campaign to infiltrate social media during the 2016 presidential election campaign.

Facebook says it has uncovered disinformation campaigns in more than 50 countries since 2017, when it began the cat-and-mouse game of cracking down on political actors seeking to manipulate public debate on its platform. The report, which summarizes 150 disinformation operations the company says it has disrupted in that period, highlights how such coordinated efforts have become more sophisticated and costly to run in recent years — even as these operators struggle to influence large numbers of people as they once did.

Meanwhile, more players have learned from the Russian example and have started disinformation operations in their own countries, Facebook says. That includes networks of shadowy public relations firms that sometimes do work for both sides within a country, as well as politicians, fringe political groups, and governments themselves, said Nathaniel Gleicher, Facebook’s head of security policy, in a media call...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/05/26/facebook-disinformation-rus...

A rational person would ask himself (not Putin or Rs, looks like...) what is opposing force's attraction, and how can we emulate it...

Map of NATO's European Enlargement over the years
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1483039716538789890

How serious is Vladimir Putin about launching a major Ukraine offensive?
Visual Storytelling Team in London and Max Seddon in Moscow | January 15 2022

If Russia ever wanted to renew their invasion, all signs point to that moment being now. Here are the key reasons why...

...his force deployments indicate the build-up is more than a bluff, military analysts say. Russia has moved major fighting units and sophisticated weaponry close to Ukraine’s border.

Though they lack the full scope of logistical support necessary for a sustained operation — such as ammunition stocks, field hospitals and blood banks — Russia’s armed forces could deploy them in a relatively short time.

...Occupying hostile territory requires enormous manpower — several times what Russia is prepared to deploy currently — and could result in significant casualties.

But limited covert incursions were enough to force Ukraine to agree to two peace deals in 2014 and 2015.

If a similar scenario happened today, the deciding factors would be how long Ukrainians are prepared to fight, analysts say, and how much the west is prepared to support them...

https://ig.ft.com/how-serious-is-putin-about-russia-invading-ukraine/

(Not a mask in sight. Must be relying on Sputnik V?)

Tadeusz Giczan (Belarus journalist) @TadeuszGiczan | 8:08 AM · Jan 20, 2022
Russian troops have officially arrived in the Belarusian town of Yelsk, 18km from Ukraine.
A local news outlet made a short story about it.

1:18 ( https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/status/1484150876390445059 )

Russian people, 20% without indoor plumbing, most-impacted by COVID, elections manipulated, treasure and sons to be sacrificed, will eventually see through disinformation to call to task this this aging, KGB-trained, self-serving, grasping, murderous little man(?) Too late for Ukraine?

Marg, deep breaths now. Ninety percent of your worries over Russia are your Cold War conditioning, and the rest is amply answered by the US/NATO shenanigans in the region. Reap as you sowed.

Also my years in s Manitoba, amongst U-Cdns. I suspect Ukrainians will not make it easy for invaders, but it will be bloody all around...

Will it? I haven't seen Russians in particular baying for blood. If there's a gram of good sense left in Yankeedom, you'll curb the sabre-rattling and respect Russian concerns.

The less said about Ukrainians in Canada, the better.

>87 LolaWalser: Um, could you just clue us in as to which particular concerns we're meant to be respecting here?

>88 kiparsky:

Er, would that be NATO expansion into Russia's neighbours? Remember the USA's reaction when the USSR expanded into Cuba, the USA's neighbour? I'm not saying it's right, but it is understandable in the dangerous and violent pissing match between big powers. Any attempt to defuse it needs to understand the concerns of all sides, whether one agrees with them or not.

>89 John5918: I find it hard to see that as a serious concern, since there was no prospect of Ukraine joining NATO in the first place, and as far as I can tell that hasn't changed. But even if it were, surely nations are allowed to form alliances, aren't they? For Ukraine to join a defensive alliance is only threatening to Putin if it impedes his plans to, um, invade Ukraine. Or Poland, I suppose.

No, I would be very disappointed if anyone thought that was a concern we were meant to take seriously.

>90 kiparsky:

I don't disagree with you, but under that argument, surely Cuba was equally allowed to form an alliance with the USSR and host their missiles? But as I said, it's not a question of judging whether someone else's concerns seem valid to us or not, but simply trying to understand them in order to see how best to defuse tensions.

Russia says it may be forced to deploy INF in Europe
13 Dec 2021

...Intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) in Europe were banned under a 1987 treaty agreed between Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev and US President Ronald Reagan in what was hailed at the time as a major easing of Cold War tensions. Washington quit the pact in 2019 after complaining for years of alleged Russian violations.

(Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov) said there were “indirect indications” that NATO was moving closer to redeploying INF, including its restoration last month of the 56th Artillery Command which operated nuclear-capable Pershing missiles during the Cold War.

“Lack of progress towards a political and diplomatic solution to this problem will lead to our response being of a military and technical military nature...That is, it will be a confrontation, this will the next round, the appearance of such resources on our side. Right now there aren’t any, we have a unilateral moratorium. We call for NATO and the US to join this moratorium...Russia had a “complete lack of trust” in NATO...They don’t permit themselves to do anything that could somehow increase our security – they believe they can act as they need, to their advantage, and we simply have to swallow all this and deal with it. This is not going to continue.”

Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Joe Biden held two hours of talks last week on the Ukraine crisis and Moscow’s demand for what it calls legally binding security guarantees from the West.

Ryabkov said Russia would present its follow-up proposals to the US, and possibly also to other NATO countries, in the coming weeks...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/12/13/russia-says-it-may-be-forced-to-deploy...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/brianna-keilar-ridicules-putin-propagandist-tucker-c...
Brianna Keilar Ridicules Putin ‘Propagandist’ Tucker Carlson: ‘Why is Rupert Murdoch Letting BS On the Air?’

***
Tucker and Murdoch care a lot about two features of our democracy ~ free speech and capitalism. High viewer numbers for the FOX News prime-time hours equals more money in their bank accounts. If that requires being a Putin enabler, so be it.

In the realm of super power geopolitics despite all the massive manipulation and propaganda that might suggest contrary there never really has been such a thing as ‘good guys’. Everyone is bad and in today’s world that’s us—that’s the Russians. That’s the British Empire in prior centuries.

Every power wants to paint itself as the best ever. Given a scepter by God. All distortions and lies. We torture. We assassinate. We try to steal other nation’s natural resources. So do the Russians, the British, the Israelis and a bunch of others.

>91 John5918: I'm not sure the analogy holds, and I'm also not sure that I'm so committed to cold-war logic that I want to use it as a basis for political decisions going forward. By all accounts, we barely missed out on an exchange of nuclear weapons sixty years ago, and for that reason alone I wouldn't want to see either party working from either Kennedy's or Krushchev's playbook today.

it's not a question of judging whether someone else's concerns seem valid to us or not, but simply trying to understand them in order to see how best to defuse tensions

I agree, and I understand that Putin claims that NATO expansion is his driving concern. I just don't believe for a minute that it's actually a concern for him at all. I wouldn't want to accept Putin's statements about his concerns at face value any more than I'd want to accept Biden's, or any other head of state. Straightforward blunt honesty just isn't part of the job description.

>95 kiparsky:

Oh, I agree entirely. I'm just trying to point out how illogical it is to support NATO expansion today while opposing USSR expansion sixty years ago. I can remember the heightened tension during the Cuban missile crisis, although as a wee lad I didn't really understand what it was all about, just that we had to practice hiding under our school desks. London was reckoned to be in line for an early nuclear strike.

What was Putin doing in 2019 to make TRUMP administration unilaterally pull out of intermediate range nuke agreement? I assumed at the time that it must have been at Putin's bidding.

>96 John5918: Again, I'm not sure the analogy is working for me. One really important distinction, I'd say, is that NATO is a coalition of forces. Under the USSR and Putin's Russia, you have a single leader who has close to complete authority to order offensive actions. (Same with the US, to a large degree) Under NATO, you need to develop a consensus across a broad group of nations in order to take action. This seems to me to put an internal check on NATO as a threat to Russia - even if some strong states wanted to use NATO forces to attack Russia, the member states on the border would have strong incentive to oppose that since they'd be the ones taking the damage from any land attacks.

With that in mind, it would actually be in Putin's interest to have Ukraine in NATO, if a potential NATO incursion were actually his concern, because they would be strongly disinclined to support such a move, and so it would make that action that much less likely.

But again, I'm not sure I want to argue NATO expansion in terms of cold war logic, because that logic doesn't give us any real clarity. I could just as well say it is illogical to support Russian expansion (into Ukraine) while opposing US colonial expansion in the 20th century. Which analogy holds?

>98 kiparsky:

Again, I don't disagree. Anything to do with war and colonial expansion is illogical to my mind. I concede that both have their own internal logic if one has bought into them, but they're built on dysfunctional and ultimately irrational foundations.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/mitch-mcconnell-credits-biden-with-moving-in-the-rig...
Mitch McConnell Credits Biden With ‘Moving in the Right Direction’ By Directing Troops to Europe Before Possible Russian Invasion

McConnell called the move an “encouraging” development “to take steps before an incursion, not afterwards.”

“It appears to me, the administration is moving in the right direction,” he said.

McConnell has been among those criticizing Biden’s Ukrainian approach, as he slammed the president on Fox News last week and said “no incursion into Ukraine is acceptable.” This was in response to Biden’s widely-panned remarks suggesting the U.S. and NATO might not act against Russia in the event of a “minor incursion” into Ukraine. The president and the White House subsequently addressed those remarks by stressing their position is Russia will face serious consequences if their military invades Ukraine.

‘Cyberpartisans’ hack Belarusian railway to disrupt Russian buildup (Guardian)

Cyber-activists opposed to the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, say they have penetrated the state-run railway’s computer system and threatened to paralyse trains moving Russian troops and artillery to the country for a potential attack on Ukraine. Their goals include freeing political prisoners, removing Russian soldiers from Belarus and preventing Belarusians from “dying for this meaningless war”, a person involved in the attack told the Guardian.

A member of the “Cyberpartisans” said the hacktivist group had so far encrypted or destroyed internal databases that the Belarusian railways use to control traffic, customs and stations, an action that could cause delays to commercial and non-commercial trains and “indirectly affect Russia troops movement”. They had so far avoided taking more drastic steps to paralyse trains by downing the signalling and emergency control systems, but said they “might do that in the future if we’re confident innocent people won’t get injured as a result”...

US’s Support for Invasions Should Disqualify It From Leading on Russia-Ukraine (Truthout)

On the one hand, Russia’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula, its support of armed insurgents in eastern Ukraine and threats of further military action against that country must be challenged by the international community — though not through war. Unfortunately, the United States is in no position to take any leadership in strategy or action against Russian aggression...

>102 John5918: Perhaps not, but if the US didn't try, progressives would still be complaining, if my glimpses of programming here is any guide.

>103 margd:
Presumably you're talking about people ("progressives") within the USA? Across the globe I suspect that there are many more people who would agree with Zunes' article, that Russia's unilateral action must be challenged but that there is little appetite for another US military adventure, nor indeed any real trust thereof.

In what world does anyone think the US wants a military encounter with Russia?

>104 John5918:

Wars have been known to start not because someone wanted a military encounter but because one or more parties ramped up the military preparations and rhetoric to the point where a war either started due to some accidental event or simply because the momentum built to a point where it seemed too difficult to pull back.

https://www.mediaite.com/news/tucker-carlson-laughs-off-stupid-claims-hes-a-puti...
Tucker Carlson Laughs Off ‘Stupid’ Claims He’s a Putin Pawn: ‘I Don’t Speak Russian, I’ve Never Been to Russia’

Bullcrap!
Tucker loved Trump's act and he has decided to co-opt it to gain fame and fortune for himself. He has become the face, heart, mind and soul of the modern-day GOP. GOPers care about four things above all else ~ power, wealth, white people and guns. They do not love our 21st century American democracy. Sadly, TC's cult following is enjoying a growth spurt.

And the people running Russian TV appear to think Tucker is an asset.

>106 John5918: Which is why Biden has been very careful to not commit any US troops to the defense of Ukraine

Interesting 59-minute interview with Timothy Snyder (Yale historian), on New Yorker Radio Hour, "Russia's Intention in Ukraine, and America."

Why Germany isn't sending weapons to Ukraine (BBC)

Germany's refusal to send weapons to Ukraine has puzzled and angered some allies. But the reasons why Europe's most powerful country is standing back are historical and complex. There's a great grassy plain to the east of Berlin where the soil tells terrible stories. As farmers plough, their blades disturb human bones, weapons; the fragments of one of the most brutal battles of World War Two. It was spring 1945. Hitler was hiding in a bunker in Berlin, his troops in retreat. Soviet forces advanced from the east across the plain but, above them on a hill called the Seelow Heights, the Nazis had taken up a defensive position. It was, by all accounts, a muddy, chaotic bloodbath. The Soviets eventually prevailed, hastening the end of the war, but it's estimated up to 30,000 of their soldiers were killed. To visit the memorial at Seelow Heights is to understand how deeply entrenched this country's history remains in the minds of many Germans - and how the horrors of the 20th Century still influence its foreign policy today. It is one of the reasons Germany has refused to send weapons to Ukraine, prompting a furious response from politicians there.

This is, by and large, a nation of pacifists. An annual survey reveals that most Germans believe diplomatic negotiation is the best way to resolve conflict. German troops rarely participate in anything other than peacekeeping missions; there are few exceptions - and they were controversial - including the Balkans in the 90s and, more recently, Afghanistan...

By Jove, I think Ritter has got it.

Seen in retrospect, Russia’s demand for a written response was a trap, one neither the U.S. nor NATO yet recognizes, writes Scott Ritter.
https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/30/checkmate-in-ukraine/

Despite the repeated Western warnings, Russia is highly unlikely to invade Ukraine — at least not yet. Instead, Russia appears to be entering a new phase of crisis management that seeks to exploit the weaknesses in the U.S./NATO alliance highlighted by their written responses to its demands.

First, Russia will keep the diplomatic option open, but on its terms. Moscow has already engaged in so-called Normandy Format talks involving Russia, France, the U.K. and Ukraine over the ongoing crisis in Donbas. In the initial meeting, all parties agreed to respect the cease-fire in effect and to meet again in 10 days — the exact opposite of any imminent invasion by Russia. Note the absence of the U.S. and NATO from these talks.

Next, Russia will turn the threat of sanctions against the U.S. and Europe. Russia has already declared that banning it from the Swift system for international monetary transactions will result in the immediate halt of Russian energy supplies to Europe. Russia is expected to sign major economic agreements with China soon that will further insulate it from economic sanctions. China has made it clear it supports Russia in the current crisis, recognizing that if the West prevails against Russia, it will soon face a similar attack.

Finally, Russia will exploit U.S. hypocrisy on spheres of influence and military alliances by entering military relationships with Cuba, Venezuela and Nicaragua and deploying a naval squadron to the Caribbean, with the potential for additional force deployments in the future.

With these three measures, Russia seeks to further isolate the U.S. from NATO and Europe. In the end, the U.S. will be confronted with one of two options, either agree to trade NATO’s open-door policy for Russian agreement not to deploy into the Western Hemisphere, or force a confrontation that will result in a Russian invasion of Ukraine that is seen by Europe as being the fault of the U.S..

The chess pieces are already being moved. While the U.S. may not see it, a Russian checkmate can be predicted sooner, rather than later.

(necessary background: https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/28/a-war-only-america-britain-seem-to-want/ and https://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2022/01/navigating-russia-ukraine-warmongering-d... ; ETA also helpful is https://consortiumnews.com/2022/01/28/the-tangled-tale-of-nato-expansion-at-the-...
)

>111 davidgn:

And Russia is to assume chair of UN Security Council for month of Feb 2022, followed by United Arab Emirates (March), UK (April), US (May): https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/content/presidency

Can China's move on Taiwan be far behind?

Britain’s failure to tackle Russian dirty money has enabled Putin’s aggression by Nicola Sturgeon (Guardian)

It has been two and a half years since the publication of parliament’s “Russia report”, which laid bare the extent of links between the Kremlin and Russian-backed financial interests – and the resulting endless flows of illicit cash through the City of London. The UK’s allies are beginning to take note of the intractability of the problem. A report from the Center for American Progress – a thinktank close to the Biden administration – stated last week that “uprooting Kremlin-linked oligarchs will be a challenge given the close ties between Russian money and the United Kingdom’s ruling Conservative party, the press, and its real estate and financial industry”...

So while Ukrainians must and will defend themselves from aggression if attempts at diplomacy fail, we cannot be blind to the circumstances that have led to the current crisis, and that includes the situation where wealth with direct links to the Putin regime has been allowed to proliferate here in the UK with often the scantest regard paid to its provenance or to the influence it seeks to exert on our democracy.

https://www.mediaite.com/politics/adam-kinzinger-slams-evil-con-artist-josh-hawl...
Adam Kinzinger Slams ‘Evil’ ‘Con Artist’ Josh Hawley Over Report GOP Senator Wants Biden to End Support for Ukraine Joining NATO

***
The more enablers Putin gathers in America, the more dangerous life in Eastern Europe is going to become. Many of our grandparents came to these shores from those countries. Old people who were very young during the WWII era must have scary visions running thru their minds these days.

>97 margd: What was Putin doing in 2019 to make TRUMP administration unilaterally pull out of intermediate range nuke agreement?

If we're having phone calls with Russia re security concerns,
ask them why they deployed nuclear-capable missiles a distance of 300 miles from Berlin, Warsaw, Copenhagen etc.
- David Frum @davidfrum | Feb 1, 2022

Russia deploys nuclear-capable missile system in Kaliningrad: reports
July 2, 20182018

The Kremlin has stressed its sovereign right to deploy missiles on Russian territory after reports that the country deployed the Iskander nuclear-capable missile system in Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea...

https://dw.com/en/russia-deploys-nuclear-capable-missile-system-in-kaliningrad-r...

The AP's Matt Lee is one of the last of a dying breed of journalist.
Video shows clash between reporter and State Department spokesman irate at request to prove US claims about Russia fake-video plot

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-russia-fake-video-accusation-reporter-ned-pri...

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/01/ukraine-guides-to-reflection/
This crisis is rooted in Washington’s obsession with Russia, writes Michael Brenner. The country’s Phoenix-like rise from the ashes has been unsettling to politicos, policy-makers and think tankers alike.

Excellent encapsulation by a Pitt International Affairs prof.

My take: letting Sen. Hawley claim the moral high ground and look like the good guy is unforgivable.

War Mania Leads White House to Condemn US Senator as Russian Propagandist
February 3, 2022
The Republican senator cited Russian “threats,” but said going to war with Moscow over Ukraine was not in the interests of the U.S., which should go after China instead, Joe Lauria reports.

https://consortiumnews.com/2022/02/03/war-mania-leads-white-house-to-condemn-us-...

>115 margd: Here's the background to Kaliningrad. https://consortiumnews.com/2016/12/29/summing-up-russias-real-nuclear-fears/

And more specifically to your question: Putin was deploying the SSC8
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/08/06/endangering-a-landmark-nuclear-treaty/

>119 davidgn: Thanks--I think... A child of the cold war, I was coasting on belief that these decisions are more often than not gamed out to be precautionary. (Possibility of mutual annihilation tends to color one's thoughts with precaution...) I remember being concerned when Obama sneered publicly at Russia as a regional power... Hope the Dr Strangeloves aren't now dominating the room... Both sides.

Russia’s assault on Ukraine and the international order: Assessing and bolstering the Western response
Fiona Hill | February 2, 2022

Emboldened in Eurasia

Seeing Opportunity in Europe

Maximalist Positions
1) Ukraine;
2) NATO, and the future expansion of the alliance; and
3) the role of the United States in European security and internationally.

Confronting the United States

Losing Hearts and Minds in Ukraine

Countering Putin

https://www.brookings.edu/testimonies/russias-assault-on-ukraine-and-the-interna...

Richard Engel (NBC News) @RichardEngel | 2:09 AM · Feb 6, 2022:
US official: each fall Russia conducts a nuclear forces exercise. This year they moved it to mid-February.
exercise will include nuclear missile launches (without warheads) and likely ICBM launches.
The last time they moved it from the fall was in 2014.

Ukraine crisis: Macron says a deal to avoid war is within reach (BBC)

French President Emmanuel Macron has said he thinks a deal to avoid war in Ukraine is possible and that it is legitimate for Russia to raise its own security concerns. Before talks in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Monday, he called for a "new balance" to protect European states and appease Russia. He restated that the sovereignty of Ukraine was not up for discussion... Moscow has made a string of demands, including that the Nato defence alliance rule out Ukraine becoming a member, and that it reduce its military presence in eastern Europe. Western countries have rejected this, instead suggesting other areas of negotiation, for example talks on cutting back nuclear weaponry. Mr Macron told the Journal du Dimanche newspaper that Russia's objective was "not Ukraine, but a clarification of the rules... with Nato and the EU". He said he hoped his dialogue with the Russian president would be enough to prevent military conflict, and that he believed Mr Putin would be open to discussing wider issues...

Video does not show Ukrainian troops at Russian border in 2022 -- it has circulated online since 2020
AFP Hong Kong | Monday 07 February 2022. Updated on Monday 07 February 2022

A video has been viewed tens of thousands of times in multiple social media posts in January 2022 alongside a claim it shows Ukrainian troops "preparing for potential combat" at the border with Russia. The posts circulated online as Moscow amassed troops on Ukraine's borders, raising fears it was preparing a possible invasion of its pro-Western neighbour. However, the video has circulated online since at least 2020 in a post by a Ukrainian military command about its troops conducting a military exercise...

https://factcheck.afp.com/doc.afp.com.9XP933

I’m a conflict mediator. This is our way out of the Ukraine crisis (Guardian)

Instead of ramping up the threats, western nations should be offering Vladimir Putin a ladder to climb down... I have worked in conflict resolution for the past 20 years and seen the dangers of stumbling into wars, unable to stop or turn back... Whatever western governments feel about Moscow’s behaviour, de-escalating the conflict and giving Moscow a ladder to climb down is in everyone’s interest. We should not underestimate the link between humiliation and aggression. Putin is a very proud man, and smart politics by western governments should offer face-saving gestures if we are serious about avoiding war...

According to Anatol Lieven, an academic and Ukraine specialist, this is “the most dangerous crisis in the world today; it is also in principle the most easily solved”. A solution exists, drawn up by France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine in 2015, which involves the implementation of the Minsk II agreement. This offers demilitarisation, a restoration of Ukrainian sovereignty including control of the border with Russia, and full autonomy for the Donbas region. The main objection for Kyiv is that autonomy for the Donbas would prevent Ukraine from joining Nato and the EU. One way through this would be for Nato to declare Ukraine a neutral country and decree that it does not join Nato for at least a decade. In practice, Ukrainian membership of the EU is ruled out for at least a generation because of Ukraine’s corruption, political dysfunction and lack of economic progress...

Talks between Putin and France’s President Macron this week were more conciliatory in tone. Macron said: “There is no security for Europeans if there is no security for Russia.” A permanent forum where Russia is welcome is needed to re-examine the post-cold war security system in Europe...

Ukraine tensions: Russia sees room for diplomacy (BBC)

Russia's EU ambassador has told the BBC his country still believes diplomacy can help de-escalate the crisis over Ukraine. Vladimir Chizhov said Moscow had no intention of invading anybody, but warned it was important not to provoke Russia into changing its mind...

>125 John5918: Vladimir Chizhov said Moscow had no intention of invading anybody, but warned it was important not to provoke Russia into changing its mind...

This sounds scarily reminiscent of a domestic violence situation. "I don't want to hit you, don't provoke me" should always be taken as a threat issued by someone who intends to hit you and wants to pretend that it's your fault.

>126 kiparsky:

No, I don't think that's a fair parallel. Moscow feels provoked, rightly or wrongly, and the west can make it worse by wittingly or unwittingly feeding that feeling.

Ottawa towing company threatened into not helping police with trucker convoy: chief
Josh Pringle | February 10, 2022

... (Ottawa Police) Chief Peter Sloly confirmed one tow truck company that would have been able to supply the service with the "logistics to tow illegal vehicles" was the target of threats.

"They have been threatened through some SOPHISTICATED ONLINE ACTIVITIES (caps mine) and direct threats to harm their employees and their business," Sloly said.

"There is a full criminal investigation going into those threats. In other cases, we have had uncooperative private sector agents that we've contacted, and so it's been incredibly difficult."

Sloly said he has heard the police chief in Windsor, Ont., where vehicles are blocking the road leading to the Ambassador Bridge, has encountered the same problems trying to procure tow truck operators to help.

"Uncooperative agents down there or people who themselves have been threatened to not participate and support in police operations to remove the demonstrators that are blocking the international bridge to the United States," Sloly said...

https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/ottawa-towing-company-threatened-into-not-helping-poli...

>128 margd: posted to the wrong topic?

>129 aspirit: Actually some Cdns suspect large anonymous donations come from Russia, and "sophisticated online activities " / threats also made me wonder. Canada has largest population of Ukrainians outside that country, which it supports. I recall some possibly Russian mischief in Canada during Crimea and Donbas days. Russia would enjoy seeing Ottawa squirm, division between US and Canada, damage to both our economies. US and Cdn intelligence may never say so, to protect methods and sources, so we may never know for sure.

>127 John5918: In my view, Moscow has a lot of room to dial back the tension. After all, they control the tempo here completely. They've got their armies on Ukraine's border, they're shooting across that border and testing Ukrainian defenses, and if the situation becomes kinetic it'll be because Moscow chooses to make it so.

If they want to not invade Ukraine, and if they don't want to be provoked, they could show it easily enough, for example, by pulling their armies back from the border. That's not going to change their security picture at all - nobody thinks Ukraine is about to invade Russia! - but it would stop the random cross-border shooting that's been going on and provide some reasonable scope for negotiation about any issues that they might have concerns about.

Ukraine tensions: Can diplomacy prevent war? (BBC)

The prospect of a wider war in Ukraine is dreadful to contemplate. If Russia were to invade, thousands could die. Many more might flee. The economic cost would be severe, the humanitarian cost devastating. Yet Russia continues to build up its forces around Ukraine, and the West continues to threaten dire consequences if they were to step one foot over the border. So is there a diplomatic way out, an exit from this confrontation that is peaceful and durable?... Any compromise would come at a price. Here, though, are some potential routes that do not involve a military and thus bloody outcome...

The West could persuade President Putin to back down... Nato and Russia could agree a new security deal... Ukraine and Russia could revive the Minsk agreements... Ukraine could become neutral, like Finland... The current stand-off could become the status quo...

Dmitri Alperovitch | 3:55 PM · Feb 12, 2022:
https://twitter.com/DAlperovitch/status/1492603386394558464

There is a lot of current discussion about the types of severe sanctions that the US would place on Russia in the event of invasion, but not as much about how Russia can hit back at the US and European economies in response
...oil (not just Europe who is very vulnerable. Russia is now #2 importer of oil into the US (after Canada))
...The US semiconductor industry imports 90% of neon supplies from Ukraine
...35% of palladium used in automotive sector, electronics and medicine also comes from Russia
...Commercial jet engines use titanium, much of it from Russia.
...On Feb 2, Russia banned export of ammonium nitrate, which is used as fertilizer in agriculture. It represents 2/3rd of global production and can cause a significant rise in global food prices
...Russia is sitting lush on $630b+ in foreign reserves so it can withstand export bans for some time
...expect a rise in disruptive cyber attacks from Russia - both from non-state but potentially also state actors (GRU, FSB and SVR)
...might try to derail the ongoing talks with Iran about curtailing their nuclear program

We don’t know the exact response to severe economic sanctions that we might see from Russia but it is a good bet that it will be significant and we should be aware that they are not playing with a weak hand here

We could potentially find workarounds against most of these economic responses from Russia but, at a minimum, we should expect further spikes in inflation and pressures on supply chains across numerous critical industries

END

The west’s focus on imminent invasion in Ukraine may backfire – and bolster Putin (Guardian)

Warnings from the US that Russian troops are poised to strike at Ukraine are growing more urgent and strident. There can be little doubt of the US’s conviction that Ukraine is at imminent risk, and the number of nations advising citizens to leave the country as soon as possible shows that the warnings are at last being considered credible. But the emphasis on near-inevitable war – and the naming of narrow timeframes when it is expected to happen – is also closing down options for the US and its allies, while opening them up for Russia. Moscow still has the initiative, and the risk is growing that its president, Vladimir Putin, is being set up to achieve a diplomatic victory through pulling the rug from under the western war scare...

Ukraine crisis: Putin says he does not want war in Europe (BBC)

Vladimir Putin has said that "of course" Russia does not want war in Europe, but that his security concerns must be addressed and taken seriously. The Russian president's comments came as the military said that some troops were withdrawing from the border near Ukraine - the first sign from Moscow of a possible de-escalation of tensions...

Duma manoeuvre points to Kremlin impatience in Ukraine standoff (Guardian)

Russian lawmakers have passed a direct appeal to Vladimir Putin to recognise the Russian-controlled separatist states of Donetsk and Luhansk, providing a way to up the ante in the regional crisis without launching an attack on Ukraine. Putin has said he will not immediately recognise the so-called republics but he is likely to wield that option as a bargaining chip as he continues to demand security guarantees from the west. The stage-managed manoeuvre unfolded on Tuesday as Putin also confirmed a “partial” withdrawal of Russian forces from the Ukrainian border, a decision that would reduce the potential for a war if it involves a large number of troops. It is not yet clear that it will...

In Ukraine, we’re terrified of an invasion. The west’s rash strategy isn’t helping (Guardian)

I do believe that foreign leaders beyond President Putin deserve some of the blame for what is happening. President Biden started a game of ping-pong with Putin – they are like two barking dogs trying to show each other who is better, and we are stuck in the middle. The support of foreign partners is very important to Ukraine, but at the moment it is also important to choose your words carefully. Every Ukrainian is affected by statements by foreign politicians about an “inevitable” Russian attack. No matter how much we tell ourselves that everything is fine, you can’t remain calm when 10 times a day you see statements about an imminent attack or intelligence about potential invasion dates that change daily. People joke that it’s time to publish a schedule of attacks for the whole of 2022 so that we can plan our lives around them... We must develop our own independent, strong army in order to reclaim our territory, and leave talk of joining Nato to one side from now...

Ukraine crisis: How much Russian money is there in the UK? (BBC)

the anti-corruption organisation Transparency International has identified more than £5bn of property bought in the UK with what it says is "suspicious wealth", one-fifth of which has come from Russia. A Home Office report says the UK has seen "a significant volume of Russian, or Russian-linked illicit finance", which is spent on things like luxury property, cars and school fees, and sometimes as donations to cultural institutions, which allow individuals to "launder their reputation"... The UK's "golden visa" - Tier 1 (Investor) visa scheme - offers residency to those rich enough to invest £2m or more in the UK, and allows their families to join them... The Home Office has issued 14,516 investor visas to Russian citizens since the scheme was introduced in 2008. Russian companies have also been able to raise large sums in share sales on the London Stock Exchange...

Russians ridicule western media on ‘day of no invasion’ (Guardian)

As 16 February – the day when some briefings had forecast Russia would invade Ukraine – came and passed without incident, pundits in Moscow lined up for their chance to dunk on the western media. “What a sad celebration we have today,” said Olga Skabeeva, the host of the state media talkshow 60 Minutes, while standing on a stage emblazoned with the logos of the Daily Mirror and the Daily Mail. “The day of no invasion of Ukraine, or perhaps as they say in Ukraine, the day when Putin once again hasn’t attacked”...

Former top Trump Russia adviser (Fiona Hill) details the sharp contrast between the former President and Biden
John Harwood | February 20, 2022

...Russia’s bid to upend the post-Cold War security order in Europe, beginning in 2008 with its invasion of Georgia and continuing with its 2014 seizure of Crimea – requires a steadier negotiating partner. (Trump’s scattershot style... evokes...“playing chess with a pigeon”)

...So far, Biden has held NATO allies together in rejecting Russia’s core demands, bolstering their forces in Europe and threatening punishing sanctions even though they guarantee domestic economic blowback. Steeped in decades of bipartisan foreign policy consensus, the Democratic President has also drawn support from top Republicans such as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell who have shunned Trump’s embrace of Putin.

That demonstration of resolve has at minimum made Putin stop and think. Biden has warned for weeks that Russia could launch a new invasion of Ukraine at any time. It hasn’t yet.

...But durable success for Biden and European allies will depend on staying power. Even if Russian tanks don’t roll across the border, Hill envisions an extended “boa constrictor” siege in which Putin applies escalating pressure in hopes of bending Ukraine to Russia’s will.

“The real challenge is keeping everyone together for a considerable period,” Hill concluded. “It’s going to go on a long time.”

https://www.cnn.com/2022/02/20/politics/fiona-hill-donald-trump-joe-biden/index....

Bill Browder (Magnitsky champion) @Billbrowder | 1:30 AM · Feb 20, 2022
As predicted by the US and other allies,
the Russians are blowing up buildings in occupied Eastern Ukraine and blaming the Ukrainians in order to justify a full scale invasion.
Exactly the same playbook as Georgia in 2008. This is really happening

Quote Tweet
Olga Lautman 🇺🇦@OlgaNYC1211 | 1:12 AM · Feb 20, 2022:
This within hours is going to be a big story across Russia press.
They are reporting casualties of civilians and buildings destroyed in Luhansk and baselessly blaming Ukraine

https://twitter.com/OlgaNYC1211/status/1495280187033927685/photo/1

Katsiaryna Shmatsina (Munich security conf young leaders) @kshmatsina | 7:52 AM · Feb 18, 2022:
https://twitter.com/kshmatsina/status/1494655948912267264
This article describes some of the effects of having Russian military in large numbers in Belarus.
TLDR: It's not pretty, for the locals, the soldiers, the Russian army or Putin. 1/9

Будни «Союзной решимости – 2022»
Продолжающиеся на территории Беларуси военные учения «Союзная решимость - 2022» точно во
Feb 14, 2022
belprauda.com https://belprauda.com/budni-soyuznoj-reshimosti-2022/

COVID is ripping through the units stationed in Belarus. Official stats have case numbers breaking all records. Army units have *really* high numbers at all ranks & they infecting the locals. Many soldiers are treated in field hospitals (tents?) as local facilities are full 2/9

Local residents are concerned with the behaviour of soldiers, who blow off steam & the article hints that soldiers from other parts of Russia (non-Slavic) are the centre of tensions. Nothing like racism to help an army unite. 3/9

RU military seems to be stripping whole areas of forest of firewood to heat camps & food,leaving little left for locals to heat their homes. Nature park areas are also damaged with the Russian army not cleaning up after themselves. Sounds like a problem Napoleon would've had.4/9

An extended period of heavy vehicles in the area has damaged roads & other infrastructure. The article says the Russians don't care and that probably there isn't the money to repair what were new roads anyway. 5/9

That soldiers drink is well known but the soldiers are taking it to extreme.Some nearly froze to death drunk on moonshine,they haven't got a lot of money to buy booze & property has started being stolen to pay for it.Drinking is "non-stop",dangerous moonshine being no barrier 6/9

Videos of soldiers complaining of bad food have been uploaded to social media. If unable to barter for food (see next tweet), domestic animals vanish. Locals are too scared to report any of this to their authorities who probably can't do much to young men with guns anyway. 7/9

Due to boredom, alcoholism, bad food & poor pay, soldiers are starting to sell/trade military equipment for goods. Diesel fuel & uniforms are common goods but the article reports even weapons can be acquired - all written off as "losses". 8/9

So Putin has to decide to invade soon or go home before those of his soldiers who aren't incapacitated with COVID drink themselves to death after robbing his army blind leaving it unable to fight and stuck in a country they've trashed. 9/9

Looks like the peace-loving Russians have been provoked into invading Ukraine, to the shock and wonderment of all.

>141 kiparsky:

I don't think anyone has ever suggested that Putin is "peace-loving", but the global conversation is about how to prevent large-scale war, not about scoring points in sarcasm. Any use of violence, whether by Russia or anyone else, is a tragedy.

“ Putin and his fellow oligarchs have amassed power thanks to the financial laxness of western democracies, which their money has helped to destabilize. With Putin’s attack on the international rule of law today, challenging western nations to stop him, Edward Luce of the Financial Times identified the larger picture: “Cannot be stated strongly enough,” he wrote. “If the west—chiefly America, but also Britain—doesn't burn its financial ties to Russia's oligarchy then Putin will prevail. This means taking on Wall Street, the City, law firms, realtors, the prep schools and western laundering outfits.””

-from Heather Cox Richardson’s daily blog

Or less diplomatically, per Lincoln Project co-founder and former R strategist:

Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson | 3:19 PM · Feb 21, 2022:
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/status/1495855620511125507
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1495855620511125507.html

1/ Putin's show today -- all the dog and pony, dog-whistle, golden-oldies from K-Tel's Greatest Hits of the Soviet Era -- is an invitation to the West to stand up, take action, and crush his global klept in a sweeping asymmetric tide of lawfare and financial actions.

2/ Putin and his cronies care about hard power and hard cash. Chaos and division here at home (looking at the vast right-wing media apparatus) are Putin strengths.

The same instinct that led the Russian klept to move their assets overseas...

3/ …to nations with the rule of law, economic stability, and better schools, shopping, restaurants, housing, and quality of life is also a massive strategic weakness for Putin now.

The West can and should make this hurt.

(I mean...some enterprising reporters could start IDing the properties, yachts, and private jets currently in the U.S.)

4/ I'm not kidding about seizing Russian yachts and private jets. I'm not kidding about tossing their kids out of U.S. universities. I'm not kidding when I say it's time to turn Immigration on the Oligarch Girlriend-Industrial complex in Miami.

5/ Do all the grown-ass adult FINCEN stuff and deal with SWIFT etc. Fine.

But spectacular, showy, visceral pain for the the oligarch class financial diaspora is a front in this war we can fight with low risk and low cost.
----------------------------------------------------

Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson:
That’s the stuff

Quote Tweet
Bill Browder @Billbrowder:
I agree Boris. Now let’s hit Putin where it hurts: in his wallet. Let’s sanction his 50 oligarch trustees in the U.K. right now. No more dithering. Asset freezes, travel bans, the works. That’s what he cares about. twitter.com/itvnews/status…

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-responds-to-critics-who-call-him-soft...
Tucker Carlson Hits Back At Critics, Reveals He’s Seeking Interviews with ‘Tyrants’ Putin and Zelensky: ‘That Is Not Treason’

***
This conspiracy-theorist and greedy creep thinks he is a journalist. He is a gift that keeps on giving ~ Putin can continue to enjoy the kudos that TC keeps sending his way ~ Australians can bask in the knowledge that the Murdoch clan is America's problem now and forever more.

>144 margd: "some enterprising reporters could start IDing the properties, yachts, and private jets currently in the U.S."

Scott Stedman (investigative journalist) @ScottMStedman | 10:07 PM · Feb 21, 2022:

Dmitry Rybolovlev's yacht Anna is in Antigua.
Roman Abramovich's yacht Eclipse is in St. Maarten.
Andrey Kostin's yacht Sea Rhapsody is outside of Saudi Arabia.
Alisher Usmanov's yacht A is in the UAE.

None of them are in Russia.

Marine charts:
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1495958408562094083/photo/1
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1495958408562094083/photo/2
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1495958408562094083/photo/3
https://twitter.com/ScottMStedman/status/1495958408562094083/photo/4

>142 John5918: Any use of violence, whether by Russia or anyone else, is a tragedy.

I agree.

Bill Browder (Magnitsky Act) @Billbrowder | 7:47 AM · Feb 22, 2022
BREAKING: The UK is sanctioning 5 Russian banks (Rossiya Bank, IS bank, General Bank, Promsviazbank, Black Sea bank) and
3 oligarchs: Igor and Boris Rotenberg, and Gennadiy Timchenko.
Pretty tepid if you ask me. The oligarchs have been on the US sanctions list since 2018

Where is VTB and Sberbank?
Where are the other 50 oligarchs? The ones whose names we can’t mention out of fear of libel.
---------------------------------------------------------
ETA
ААА @ZRcUOLfJVU54WZ1 | 8:02 AM · Feb 22, 2022:
Основные внутренние банки РФ которыми ежедневно пользуются все гражданеРоссии:

ВТБ ,Сбербанк ,Почта банк, Совкомбанк, Райффайзен банк, Газпромбанк, Альфа банк,Россельхозбанк, банк Авангард , Промсвязьбанк, МКБ, банк Открытие,Тиньков банк.

Необходимо срочно санкции против них
Translated from Russian by (google)
The main domestic banks of the Russian Federation, which are used daily by all citizens of Russia:
VTB,
Sberbank,
Post Bank,
Sovcombank,
Raiffeisen Bank,
Gazprombank,
Alfa Bank,
Russian Agricultural Bank,
Avangard Bank,
Promsvyazbank,
MKB,
Otkritie Bank,
Tinkov Bank.
Urgent sanctions are needed against them
---------------------------------------------------------------
Murmur @Murmur18057718 | 7:56 AM · Feb 22, 2022:
These banks are serving individuals. And for example Rossiya bank is Put(i)ns bank, and it serves legal entities, him and his friends.
_________________________________________________

Germany freezes Nord Stream 2 gas project as Ukraine crisis deepens
Sarah Marsh and Madeline Chambers | Feb 22, 2022

Hitherto reluctant Germany halts certification process
Pipeline had been set to help ease energy price crisis
Benchmark gas price jumps
Ukraine says Germany is showing moral leadership
Russia's Medvedev says: 'Welcome to 2,000-euro gas'

...Tuesday the European benchmark gas price, currently the Dutch March contract , was up 10%

...President Vladimir Putin did pledge, however, that Russia would not interrupt any of its existing gas supplies.

...Germany gets half its gas from Russia and had argued that Nord Stream 2 was primarily a commercial project to diversify energy supplies for Europe. (Russia is #3 supplier in US, after Venezuela dropped out?)...

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-scholz-halts-nord-stream-2-cert...

A couple of resources which might be of interest:

1. A webinar by the Campaign for Peace Disarmament and Common Security on "Diplomatic Paths to Resolution of the Ukraine/European Security Crisis Russian, European & U.S. Perspectives", March 2, 10 a.m. EST. Speakers include: Alexey Gromyko: Russian Academy of Sciences (Russia), Tarja Cronberg: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (Finland), Daryl Kimball: Arms Control Association (United States). Register here

2. Can Sanctions Be Smart? The Costs and Benefits of Economic Coercion (Foreign Affairs)

the notion that the success of sanctions can be measured only by the appearance of specific behavioral changes is simplistic and unhelpful. Vladimir Putin is not going to stop being a tyrant because the United States imposes more sanctions on Russia, just as Osama bin Laden was not going to give up on terrorism because Washington sanctioned al Qaeda. Such binary tests are a very narrow way of measuring the effectiveness of sanctions. Often, sanctions programs are designed not to evoke a sudden epiphany on the part of bad actors but to introduce friction into their lives. By denying resources to terrorists, human rights abusers, nuclear weapons proliferators, and kleptocrats, sanctions make it more difficult for such figures to do what they do. These types of actors also tend to rely on networks of international facilitators, who are usually more pragmatic than ideological and often have one foot in the legitimate business world. Their behavior, therefore, is more easily influenced by sanctions—whether by being directly sanctioned themselves or by becoming the subject of an enforcement action... Rather than fixating on the inability of isolated sanctions to alter the behavior of bad actors, better to focus on the ways in which these tools can influence the people and businesses that bank with those bad actors, trade with them, create their shell companies, ship their goods, supply them with materials, sell them arms, and launder their money... it is the international facilitators and quasi-legitimate businesspeople... who go to the greatest lengths to lobby governments or file lawsuits to have sanctions removed. If these sanctions were ineffective, why would they work so hard to overturn them?...

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/tucker-carlson-frames-russian-incursion-into-ukraine...
Tucker Carlson Frames Russian Incursion Into Ukraine as a Mere ‘Border Dispute’

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TC appears to have a type of mental block when it comes to i-words like insurrection (1-6) and invasion/incursion (2-22). Trinity College in Connecticut must be soooo proud of the high-profile Trump-loving/Putin-loving alum who dropped its name during a toxic discussion about a black female host on a competing network!!!

What a person says on a few occasions is not as edifying as the pattern that appears over a period of time. Is there really any doubt about why Trump, his cult followers and enablers admire the WHITE Russian guy with the demonic smile?

Sadly, if the GOP takes back the House and Senate, it appears it may want to rename the Ronald Reagan National Airport ~ 2020's = the Donald Trump National Airport. As of this week, Reagan must be spinning in his grave.

https://www.mediaite.com/tv/a-confused-trump-tells-laura-ingraham-u-s-soldiers-l...
A Confused Trump Tells Laura Ingraham U.S. Soldiers Landed in Ukraine to Fight the Russians: ‘You Said That We Were Sending People In’

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Trump's America First anthem has led to his buddy Putin forging a Russia First mission after Trump's exit. Clueless 2016 voters in flyover country and swing states who were unhappy with their lives in 21st century America have made it all possible. The dominos keep falling.