Trump screws his base--#2 and counting

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Trump screws his base--#2 and counting

1margd
May 30, 2019, 11:43 am

Study Finds Trump Tax Cuts Failed to Do Anything But Give Rich People Money
By Jonathan Chait | May 29, 2019

The biggest effect of the Trump tax cuts is obvious: People who own businesses and other sources of concentrated wealth will have a lot more money, and the federal budget will have less. But the advocates of the tax cuts insisted it wasn’t about letting the makers keep their hard-earned money rather than handing it over to the takers. It was about incentivizing business to repatriate funds and ramp up its investments, thereby increasing growth and wages.

The Congressional Research Service, a kind of in-house think tank for Congress, has a new paper* analyzing the effects of the Trump tax cuts. It finds that none of those secondary effects have materialized. Growth has not increased above the pre-tax-cut trend. Neither have wages. After a brief and much smaller than expected bump, repatriated corporate cash from abroad has leveled off.

It’s of course possible that the growth in wages would take longer than the year or so that has passed since the tax cut to show up. If the Trump tax cut had encouraged new business investment, it might take years for the new investment to bear fruit. But the study looks directly at business investment and finds … nothing...

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2019/05/study-trump-tax-cuts-failed-growth-inves...
_________________________________________________________

The Economic Effects of the 2017 Tax Revision: Preliminary Observations
Congressional Research Service
May 22, 2019 R45736
23 pages
https://www.everycrsreport.com/files/20190522_R45736_8a1214e903ee2b719e00731791d...

2margd
Jun 15, 2019, 12:30 pm

Big businesses paying even less than expected under GOP tax law
BRIAN FALER | 06/13/2019

...The U.S. Treasury saw a 31 percent drop in corporate tax revenues last year, almost twice the decline official budget forecasters had predicted. Receipts were projected to rebound sharply this year, but so far they’ve only continued to fall, down by almost 9 percent or $11 billion.

Though business profits remain healthy and the economy is strong, total corporate taxes are at the lowest levels seen in more than 50 years.

At the same time, overall taxes paid by individuals under the new tax law are up so far this year by 3 percent, thanks to higher wages and salaries, according to the Congressional Budget Office. Last year tax payments by individuals went up 4 percent...

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/13/big-businesses-pay-less-tax-law-136459...

3sashame
Jun 15, 2019, 12:54 pm

>2 margd:

give em an inch and theyll take a mile

4margd
Jun 16, 2019, 3:32 am

Opinion: New rules for financial advisers protect Wall Street — not you
Mitch Tuchman | June 13, 2019

Everyday investors are the biggest target out there for unscrupulous financial firms

...“Regulation Best Interest” or Reg BI...Consumer Federation of America’s Barbara Roper...
“The SEC is throwing ‘Mr. and Ms. 401(k)’ under the bus. These new rules seriously erode the Commission’s traditional interpretation of the Advisers Act fiduciary standard, giving brokers virtually unlimited ability to act as advisers, while simultaneously failing to regulate them accordingly, and making it easier for brokers to mislead their customers into believing they are getting trusted, best interest advice when they are actually getting investing recommendations biased by toxic conflicts of interest.”

Here are some takeaways from the CFA:

Claim: The SEC says that Reg BI requires advisers to act in the best interest of clients, rather than simply the weaker “suitability” standard.

Reality: Rules in place at the Wall Street-run regulator FINRA already state this. Reg BI changes nothing.

Claim: Reg BI means advisers must put their client’s interest ahead of their own.

Reality: The regulation doesn’t require this at all. So long as conflicts are disclosed and some lighter requirements are met the adviser can sell virtually anything he wants, even if they serve his interests before those of the client.

Claim: Reg BI provides conflict-of-interest mitigation procedures.

Reality: Those procedures are up to the adviser’s firm, and they can do pretty much whatever they want here, as before. Firms can incentivize advisers and conflicts can be managed to benefit the adviser and the firm, rather than the client.

Claim: Reg BI requires disclosure of lower-cost investment options.

Reality: Only in the case of different share classes of an identical security. Across securities, advisers are free to recommend whatever they want, even if they get a kickback for doing so.

Claim: Under the law, the SEC only needs to require disclosure.

Reality: The Dodd-Frank Act gives the SEC real teeth to require a true fiduciary duty from financial advisers. It simply chooses not to.

... it’s not surprising that Wall Street wants less regulation of its behavior toward retirement investment customers. The mass of unsophisticated, everyday retail investors is the biggest target out there for unscrupulous financial firms. Just do an online search for “Wells Fargo” over the past few years and you’ll see exactly what I’m talking about.

The financial advice industry...just snookered the American public by capturing the SEC and making up rules that seem tough but change nothing about how many financial advisers make money...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/new-rules-for-financial-advisers-dont-protect-...

5margd
Jun 17, 2019, 5:38 am

Trump voters vulnerable to proposed cuts to Medicaid, block grants:

Aging population presents long-term concerns for Wyoming's budget
Nick Reynolds | Jun 15, 2019

It’s a simple equation: Wyoming’s oldest people are getting older and costing the state more money. Its youngest people are leaving, taking their money with them.

The Wyoming Legislature has known for years about the looming fiscal crisis Wyoming’s aging population will present for the state.

Ahead of the 2019 legislative session, lawmakers on the Labor, Health and Social Services Committee were tasked with addressing the issue, looking for solutions to a dwindling network of caregivers, increasing health care costs and a growing number of elderly residents who are less and less prepared for retirement...

https://trib.com/news/state-and-regional/govt-and-politics/aging-population-pres...

6margd
Edited: Jul 12, 2019, 6:51 am

Trump sends soldiers to southern border during holidays,
raids military funds for his wall,
sends a manned plane to provoke Iran,
orders military away from family picnics to perform on July 4.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine:

Zelensky cancels Independence Day military parade, gives money to soldiers
Bermet Talant, Matthew Kupfer | Published July 9

https://www.kyivpost.com/ukraine-politics/zelenskiy-cancels-independence-day-mil...

7margd
Edited: Jul 24, 2019, 7:56 am

USDA proposes SNAP change that would push 3 million Americans off food stamps
Laura Reiley | July 23, 2019

...Current rules give states latitude to raise SNAP income eligibility limits so that low-income families with housing and child care costs that consume a sizable share of their income, can continue to receive help affording adequate food.

This option also allows states to adopt less restrictive asset tests so that families, seniors and people with a disability can have modest savings or own their own home without losing SNAP benefits.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D.-Mich), the ranking Democrat on the Senate Agriculture Committee, said the proposed rule was an attempt to bypass Congress which has blocked earlier attempts by the Trump administration to cut food stamps.

“This proposal is yet another attempt by this Administration to circumvent Congress and make harmful changes to nutrition assistance that have been repeatedly rejected on a bipartisan basis,” Stabenow said in a statement. "This rule would take food away from families, prevent children from getting school meals, and make it harder for states to administer food assistance. "

Stacy Dean, vice president of food assistance policy at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, said limiting access to SNAP would overwhelmingly affect working families, seniors and people with disabilities. It could encourage some recipients to spend down their savings or to work less to continue to qualify.

...The proposal begins a 60-day public comment period Wednesday, and those comments must be reviewed before the proposal can go into effect. The last USDA proposal on SNAP received more than 100,000 comments.

To be eligible for SNAP, a household’s gross income must be below 130 percent of the federal poverty line. In 2019, that works out to $32,640 a year for a family of four. Democrats pointed out that the benefit amounts to $1.40 per person per meal.

Currently, households remain eligible with up to $2,250 in countable assets (such as cash or money in a bank account) or $3,500 in countable assets if at least one member of the household is age 60 or older, or is disabled. These amounts are updated annually.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/07/23/usda-proposes-snap-change-tha...

______________________________________________________________________

ETA
Pelosi Statement on Trump Administration Proposal to Slash SNAP for 3 Million Americans
July 23, 2019

“The Administration’s latest act of staggering callousness would steal food off the table of working families and hungry children, and dismantle proven pathways out of poverty for millions. This proposal perfectly showcases the Republicans’ cynical special interest agenda that gives billion-dollar handouts to big corporations and the wealthy few, and then steals from children, veterans, seniors and working families to make up the difference.

“The Administration’s proposal is both cruel and counterproductive, ignoring the truth that SNAP injects demand into the economy by creating $1.79 for every dollar in benefits. The Administration is also sadly rejecting the overwhelmingly bipartisan passage of the 2018 Farm Bill, which made smart improvements that strengthened the safety net for food-insecure families. By rejecting and ignoring the will of Congress, this Administration is complicit in worsening hunger for many Americans in both rural and urban communities, including 168,000 Californians.

“This Administration must stop relitigating the Farm Bill and commit to implementing the bipartisan agreement to make anti-hunger initiatives more effective. House Democrats will always stand firm for the health, well-being and dignity of America’s working families, and will continue to advance our For The People agenda to deliver lower health care costs, bigger paychecks and cleaner government that fights for the public interest, not the special interests.”

https://www.speaker.gov/newsroom/72319-2/

_____________________________________________________________________________

!

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 7:54 AM · Jul 23, 2019:

Farmers are starting to do great again, after 15 years of a downward spiral. The 16 Billion Dollar China “replacement” money didn’t exactly hurt!

82wonderY
Jul 31, 2019, 12:31 pm

American farmer: Trump 'took away all of our markets.'

"...farmers are profoundly wary of the trade war, embarrassed that ad hoc government subsidies are all that stands between many of us and financial ruin, and ready for the return of more normal times."

9margd
Jul 31, 2019, 1:39 pm

And he's done nothing to protect growing conditions--drought, flood, fire...

10margd
Aug 27, 2019, 12:44 pm

Trump is lying in farmers’ faces, and they’re finally getting angry about it
Greg Sargent | August 27, 2019

The New York Times has a good report that fleshes out the damage that farmers are sustaining right now — and their reaction to it. China’s retaliatory tariffs are closing off the biggest export market in the world — leading to a massive drop in exports of soybeans, pork, wheat and other agricultural products.

The administration has rolled out billions and billions of dollars in aid to farmers. But farm loan delinquencies and bankruptcies are rising, and the ripple effects are spreading, with one major manufacturer of agricultural equipment cutting its profit outlook this month.

And Trump’s trade war is only escalating: Trump has increased tariffs on Chinese products yet again, and China slapped new tariffs on $75 billion in U.S. exports. As the Times puts it, “farmers are beginning to panic.”

What seems notable is that farmers’ representatives are growing angry about what Trump is telling them about all this. Trump frequently makes such claims as “farmers are starting to do great again.”...

...there is likely zero chance that farmers — or rural voters — break with Trump in 2020. Still, this illustrates the limits on Trump’s lying powers: If they stick with Trump, it isn’t because he mesmerized them into ignoring reality; it’s that they still see other reasons for sticking with him. Those are likely rooted in partisanship more than anything else; farmers are overwhelmingly Republican voters...

https://beta.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2019/08/27/trump-is-lying-farmers-faces...

11lriley
Edited: Aug 27, 2019, 1:17 pm

Gen. Trump is not much of an economic strategist. The US dollar is a strategic advantage American President's have used in the past to gain advantage over the USA's economic adversaries. Trump is losing the war and draining the bank accounts of many of his most ardent supporters with his tariff ideas. By the way tariffs could possibly work if you had real manufacturing and industrial capability that could at least somewhat match the capabilities and needs of your opposing target country. If we were living in the 1970's or 80's where Trump's brain seems to be he might have a chance. All that intermittent time between then and now seems to have passed by him in a blur and without his really understanding anything--economic genius that he thinks he is. He doesn't seem to realize we have become a platform for the Chinese and other developing economies to sell their cheaper to produce goods.....some of the same we use to manufacture here but so long ago. It's no wonder he was at the bottom of his business classes in college. He's stupid and a knucklehead (and that's being nice--he's also a shitbird).

There was a bit of a backlash against him in the mid-west in the 2018 elections. I suspect more backlash to be on the way in 2020. Some of these farmers might not even have the wherewithal to send him campaign contributions this time around.

So on the question of finding the perfect candidate and for those who think that Joseph Biden is our only hope I'd say Trump just doing what Trump does--and right now blowing up the economy is one of his things--should be a big help to getting any number of possible Democratic candidates elected. Not a fan of Biden's---we could do much better.

12LolaWalser
Aug 28, 2019, 10:47 am

If they stick with Trump, it isn’t because he mesmerized them into ignoring reality; it’s that they still see other reasons for sticking with him. Those are likely rooted in partisanship more than anything else; farmers are overwhelmingly Republican voters...

Partisanship shmartisanship; let's spell out those traits they like so much: racism, xenophobia, misogyny, chauvinism, dick-waving, all-around fascistic bluster.

And idiocy. Why avoid mentioning the stupidity and ignorance that Trump supporters of the benighted classes so copiously and unashamedly exhibit?

These people are not your brightest and the best. They didn't vote for Trump on the basis of some meticulous political analysis; with some deeply complex intellectual rationale; intelligently. They voted for the dog whose ass smells like their own. They like precisely the stench of Trump. And they won't stop liking it ever, because it's who they are too.

13RickHarsch
Aug 29, 2019, 3:46 pm

>12 LolaWalser: I agree, especially in regard to calling an idiot an idiot. If it disturbs you, try to find a reason for it. But don't pretend it isn't there. The whole world is...laughing.

14margd
Edited: Sep 6, 2019, 3:54 am

Busted: Trump sides with payday lenders preying on poor in red states (7:05)
Ari Melber | Sept 5, 2019

In a special reporter, Ari Melber exposes payday lenders who are following Trump’s lead, and profiting off of his presidency. Ari reports on the Trump administration gutting key protections for U.S. consumers from abuse by payday lenders, ending a rule that restricted lenders from preying on people who can’t afford their loans in the first place.

...The month before payday lenders partied at a Trump resort, the administration gutted rules aimed at their abusive practices. “It is literally millionaires celebrating money they extracted from some of the poorest Americans." ...

https://www.msnbc.com/the-beat-with-ari/watch/busted-trump-sides-with-payday-len...

15lriley
Sep 6, 2019, 7:22 am

#14--FWIW there are several democrats caught up in the payday lender thing--Wasserman-Schultz for one--who has lifted large boulders in an attempt to stave off any kind of regulatory oversight on payday lenders. They are among her favorite people.

The super capitalist believes our economy should run without rules and create as many billionaires as possible and the rest of the population is just there to be exploited for all its worth. Trump is in that clique--actually Bush was too. They don't care about the country....they care about themselves and their friends. That's it.

Whether we know or admit it or not--we are in a class war--one anyway that the super wealthy are waging against everyone else. When the subject of taxing them comes up though they act as if this war is being waged against them. There is no reason or need for anyone to be a billionarire in this country. We should cap personal wealth whether it's at $500 mil, $100 mil or $20 mil. That's enough for anyone to get by on very nicely for the rest of their lives. Redistribute the excess into the population and into the things that need to be done and climate is one of them--health care, infrastructure, energy are others. We could do reparations too.

16margd
Sep 19, 2019, 4:28 pm

Proposed Rule Would Hurt Older Adults and States
600,000 Households with Seniors Could Lose Food Assistance under Proposed Rule
Olivia Dean, Lynda Flowers, Catherine Harvey | September 19, 2019 11:39 AM

...The current Administration has repeatedly attempted to reduce SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) benefits or add additional barriers to accessing the program. Most recently, it proposed a rule that would put more than 3 million individuals at risk of losing their SNAP benefits. The proposed rule also has the potential to discourage SNAP recipients from building modest emergency savings, leaving them vulnerable to unexpected financial challenges.

...Both an Administration analysis as well as a recent Mathematica analysis indicate that under the proposed rule, older adults would bear the brunt of the changes to SNAP eligibility. According to the rule, 1.7 million SNAP households (3.1 million individuals) would lose eligibility for SNAP. About a third of those SNAP households – approximately 600,000 – would include adults ages 60 and older, despite these households comprising only 24 percent of current participants.1 Notably, with the changes disproportionately harming households with older adults, the USDA notes potential “civil rights impacts.” Civil rights laws are designed to prevent discrimination based on age, among other characteristics.

SNAP participants’ financial health could also suffer under the proposed rule. If states lose the flexibility afforded by BBCE, households with older adults would have to own less than $3,500 in assets to qualify for SNAP (excluding their home and some other assets, such as retirement savings). Even a $100 increase in liquid savings significantly lowers a household’s likelihood of coming up short for rent, missing a mortgage payment, skipping medical care, or going without food. A modest savings cushion also makes people less likely to rely on public assistance programs like SNAP.

The rule could also increase administrative burden on states and the individuals and families who remain eligible for SNAP. The current BBCE policy helps streamline application and eligibility processes. Requiring more low-income people to prove their income and assets would likely make it harder for people to enroll in and maintain SNAP benefits—and potentially increase the burden on states that must review the documents...

https://blog.aarp.org/thinking-policy/600-000-households-with-seniors-could-lose...

17margd
Sep 21, 2019, 7:15 am

Pennsylvania, Wisconsin lost the most factory jobs in the past year: report
John Bowden - 09/20/19 02:06 PM EDT

Two swing states narrowly won by President Trump over Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton in 2016 were the sites of the greatest losses in manufacturing jobs between 2018 and 2019, according to data released Friday by the Labor Department.

The agency's state employment survey found that Wisconsin has lost about 5,200 manufacturing jobs since August of last year. In Pennsylvania, losses of manufacturing jobs topped 7,700, according to the survey.

...During his campaign, the president vowed to bring manufacturing jobs back from China and other countries, while accusing the Obama administration and other previous administrations of signing trade deals that resulted in factories moving overseas...

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/462354-pennsylvania-wisconsin-lost-the-most-f...

18margd
Oct 7, 2019, 2:28 am

Amid Trump Tariffs, Farm Bankruptcies And Suicides Rise
Chuck Jones | Aug 30, 2019

...The Farm Bureau report showed that farmer bankruptcies had risen in every region of the U.S. for the year ending in June except for the Southwest. Wisconsin, Kansas and Minnesota led the nation in Chapter 12 filings; bankruptcy filings in Kansas and Minnesota increased so significantly in the past year that they reached the highest levels of the past decade

...John Newton, the Chief Economist at the Farm Bureau, summarized the farmer’s situation as, “The deteriorating financial conditions for farmers and ranchers are a direct result of several years of low farm income, a low return on farm assets, mounting debt, more natural disasters and the second year of retaliatory tariffs on many U.S. agricultural products.”

2019 farm income should be in the bottom 25% of the past 90 years...

Farmers live off of thin margins...

China will find other suppliers or grow more crops themselves...

All of this has led to increased stress levels for farmers...

This could be worse than the farm crisis of the 1980’s...

Suicide data is anecdotal but prevalent. It takes quite a while for the Centers for Disease Control to collect national violent death data, which are based on coroner reports...

A March opinion column in SC Times noted, “Times have not been good for farmers the past several years. Many have compared it to the farm crisis of the 1980s. Others think the situation for farmers is even worse now than 30 years ago.” In the column, Jennifer Fahy, a communications director for Farm Aid observed, "The farm crisis was so bad (in the 1980s), there was a terrible outbreak of suicide and depression." But today, she said of stress and farmer suicide, "I think it's actually worse."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/chuckjones/2019/08/30/amid-trump-tariffs-farm-bankr...

19margd
Oct 7, 2019, 10:06 am

The cost of Trump’s tariffs has fallen ‘entirely’ on US businesses and households: Goldman
Emma Newburger | May 12 2019

Key Points

Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen “entirely” on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected.

The bank said in a note that the trade war’s impact on U.S. consumer prices is now higher than previously expected, partly because Chinese exporters have not lowered their prices to better compete in the US market

“One might have expected that Chinese exporters of tariff-affected goods would have to lower their prices somewhat to compete in the US market, sharing in the cost of the tariffs,” Goldman said...

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/12/goldman-trump-tariff-costs-fall-entirely-on-us-b...

20lriley
Edited: Oct 7, 2019, 1:04 pm

#19--Trump with his belief in American exceptionalism is pretty much proving how unexceptional we are. If you look at the American economy like it's one gigantic casino--well he already has experience in bankrupting casinos.

21margd
Oct 8, 2019, 5:11 am

Senator Graham was golfing with Trump a couple days earlier, and apparently nothing was said about Syrian plans:

The Humiliation of Lindsey Graham
CHARLES SYKES | October 07, 2019

He traded his honor to be “relevant” as a Trump adviser. But on Syria, Trump didn’t bother to ask what he thought.

...Graham told himself: by staying close to Trump, he could influence him and prevent horribly bad decisions. Others made the same calculation, but Graham made the uber-tradeoff, because the stakes were so high. What did it matter if he had to endure temporary embarrassments, abase himself on cable television, or even become a political punchline, if he could stop Trump from impulsive decisions regarding Russia or North Korea? Or Syria?

The world saw Graham as a craven, cringing Uriah Heep. Graham saw himself as someone who could save the world, or at least the Kurds.

Graham calculated: If he didn’t play golf with Trump and indulge his penchant for pillow talk, Trump would be putting and chatting with Rand Paul, listening to the counsels of isolationism, appeasement and international amorality. He was not simply the adult in the room; he was the adult BFF in the room, who would temper Trump’s worst instincts.

And then came Trump’s decision.

Despite Graham’s compulsive turd-polishing of the past few years, Trump didn’t even consult him before making the decision to abandon the Kurds. Graham, who had given up so much self-respect to prevent just this outcome, was not even in the room. He didn’t even get a text...

https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2019/10/07/trump-lindsey-graham-syria-ku...

22lriley
Oct 8, 2019, 7:14 am

#20--to correct my own remark from yesterday--it's not really Trump's belief in American exceptionalism--I'm thinking that's not really on his radar. It's more like his belief in his own exceptionalism--his 'great and unmatched wisdom' that allows him to make decisions without any consultation with anyone.

23lriley
Oct 8, 2019, 8:18 am

The other issue is he doesn't talk to anybody--he catches the war planners at the Pentagon by surprise--says not a word not only not to the Kurds but to members of the the coalition we have fighting in Syria besides us such as NATO allies Britain and France.....basically leaves everyone to fend for themselves or become roadkill. Says not a word to even members of his own party. That part though is kind of funny.

24margd
Oct 8, 2019, 9:18 am

Dawning realization in a British paper at east that if Kurds turn to defending themselves, ISIS captives will be loose again.
They were minding those people, not US?

Also, that as impeachment becomes more likely, Trump appears to be delivering on Putin's shopping list...nukes, Kurds, open sky--oh my!

25lriley
Oct 8, 2019, 1:08 pm

#24--I think something that hasn't been considered is the Kurds massacring ISIS soldiers/prisoners. Why would they let them loose to reform and have to fight them all over again?--which would also have them fighting on another front when they already have a major logistical disadvantage or even who knows if ISIS would ally with the Turks?--the Turks allowed most of their foreign fighters to cross over their border into Syria. It could be argued that to the Turks the Kurds are more of an enemy than ISIS. Pretty much Trump thoughtlessly has put the Kurds in an untenable situation--quite possibly existential to their survival as a people and a culture.

26margd
Oct 13, 2019, 7:51 am

Trump’s Trillion-Dollar Hit to Homeowners
Allan Sloan | Oct. 10, 2019

...largely unexamined effects of the last tax bill, which Trump promised would help the middle class: Would you believe it has inflicted a trillion dollars of damage on homeowners — many of them middle class — throughout the country?

That massive number is the reduction in home values caused by the 2017 tax law that capped federal deductions for state and local real estate and income taxes at $10,000 a year and also eliminated some mortgage interest deductions. The impact varies widely across different areas. Counties with high home prices and high real estate taxes and where homeowners have big mortgages are suffering the biggest hit, as you’d expect, given the larger value of the lost tax deductions. But...homeowners all over the country are feeling the effects.

...because of the 2017 tax law, U.S. house prices overall are about 4% lower than they’d otherwise be...a very big deal to families whose biggest financial asset is the equity they have in their homes

...Among the modest winners here are first-time buyers who purchased their homes after the tax law took effect and benefited by paying less than they would have paid under the old tax rules.

...lots more people have bigger financial stakes in their houses than in their stock portfolios, which have thrived as the Trump tax law turbocharged corporate earnings and stock prices.

In fact, 73.5% of households that own homes, stocks or both had bigger stakes in the home market than in the stock market

...my friends and neighbors and co-workers in New York and New Jersey — and many of you all over the country — are paying more federal income tax in order to help corporations pay less federal income tax...

https://www.propublica.org/article/trumps-trillion-dollar-hit-to-homeowners

27alco261
Oct 13, 2019, 9:59 am

>26 margd: I, for one, don't have any problem believing that at all for the simple reason it is a very real fact of Trumplife where I live. Not only didn't I see so much as a single dollar increase in my after tax take home pay (remember we were supposed to see an average of $4400) but because we are now required to pay taxes on taxes (which is what the $10,000 limit amounts to) My tax bill for 2018 increased by $2,500 over what I paid in 2017 - and when I ran the numbers it was all courtesy of the cap.

28margd
Nov 15, 2019, 3:40 am

‘I’m gonna lose everything’
A farm family struggles to recover after rising debt pushes a husband to suicide
Annie Gowen | November 9, 2019

...In farm country, mental health experts say they’re seeing more suicides as families endure the worst period for U.S. agriculture in decades. Farm bankruptcies and loan delinquencies are rising, calamitous weather events are ruining crops, and profits are vanishing during Trump’s global trade disputes.

A 2017 study found that farm owners and workers were three to five times as likely to kill themselves on the job compared with other occupations. Researchers studying more recent data have not yet determined if farmer suicides are increasing, but leaders and social workers in rural America say that, anecdotally, they’re seeing more of these deaths. Calls to suicide hotlines around farm country have risen, prompting new federal and state programs targeting farmers’ mental health, including support groups, public awareness campaigns and funding for counseling.

The Agriculture Department is setting up the first $1.9 million phase of a farm and ranch stress support network to expand emergency hotlines, training and support groups for farmers and ranchers. In addition, the department started a $450,000 pilot program to train some of its workers in how to help farmers in extreme distress and make mental health referrals for them...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2019/11/09/im-gonna-lose-everything/

29margd
Nov 21, 2019, 9:07 am

Trump urges still more cuts in interest rates--even negative as elsewhere--which will benefit big borrowers like real estate tycoons but not pensioners and savers and the general economy:

Their house is on fire’: the pension crisis sweeping the world
Josephine Cumbo in London and Robin Wigglesworth in Oslo November 17 2019

The plunge in interest rates since the financial crisis is wreaking havoc on funds

Tens of millions...pensioners and savers around the world are facing...retirement insecurity...as plunging interest rates since the financial crisis wreak havoc on the funding of schemes. As average life expectancy increases, pensions have become a defining political issue in countries as diverse as Russia, Japan and Brazil.

...A common factor in this global pension upheaval has been suppressed bond yields.

Bonds have historically provided a simple match for the cash flows needed to be paid out to the members of retirement schemes such as Mr Jansen’s. But decades of declining bond yields have made it far harder for pension funds to buy an income for their members, pushing them more into equities and other riskier, untraded investments, such as real estate and private equity.

Buoyant financial markets have so far ensured robust investment gains for pension plans on their existing holdings. Yet given their long-term liabilities, the dimming outlook for future gains is causing anguish.

...This is not merely a danger to individuals like Mr Jansen who may see their pensions cut — it could also have a wider impact on the economy. If people set aside more money for retirement, it may hamper economic growth by reducing consumption — the opposite of the intention of central banks when they cut rates.

...There may even be more systemic consequences. Last month the IMF warned in its annual report on global financial stability that the rush by pension funds into “illiquid” assets will hamstring “the traditional role they play in stabilising markets during periods of stress”, as they will have less money available to scoop up bargains...

https://www.ft.com/content/c95deea4-03e2-11ea-9afa-d9e2401fa7ca

_______________________________________________________________________

Some states and companies will not be well positioned to accommodate demand in time of low interest rates:

Overall in 2017, states had 69 percent of the assets they needed to fully fund their pension liabilities—ranging from 34 percent in Kentucky to 103 percent in Wisconsin. ... Only Idaho, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, and Utah joined Wisconsin in being at least 90 percent funded (Figure 1).

https://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/issue-briefs/2019/06/the-stat...

30lriley
Nov 21, 2019, 9:38 am

#28--it should be pointed out that many of these rural congressional districts effected by Trump's neglect of climate science and his trade war with China are districts that he won in 2016 and will need to win in 2020 and have republican congressmen/women (mostly men) in office and that these same congresspeople who talk about the evils of socialism non-stop are fine with Trump bailing out their districts......subsidizing them to the tune of billions upon billions of $'s just so that Trump can have his trade war and keep afloat all of his nonsensical notions about tariffs and what a great negotiator and economic guru he is. Yes--these same republican congresspeople go on and on about the evils of socialism but socialism is fine when it bails out billionaire or indemnifies them against their losses and gambling and it's fine when it bails out their very own districts. It's only evil when it's happening in other places than their own backyards and when the help is going to people of color---for instance there's been an ongoing decades long war going on against every form of public assistance/subsistence help to poor people. That war is fucking fine as far as republicans are concerned. The fact is these people are liars and hypocrites and a good many of them know it---though some are too stupid to have figured it out.

31margd
Nov 24, 2019, 1:29 am

Why Trump Is Bad for Business
Geoff Colvin | November 18, 2019

America’s first billionaire President promised to bring a C-suite sensibility to the Oval Office. It started well—but now bad policy choices have pushed CEO confidence to the lowest level in a decade.

...CEO confidence, which leapt in Trump’s early days, has since plunged to levels not seen since the darkest days of the financial crisis in 2009 (trade)...

Small-business owners rejoiced when Trump won, but their optimism, as surveyed by the National Federation of Independent Business, began to slump substantially a year ago...

..Deregulation

Widely underappreciated is the importance of his deregulation agenda—regulatory relief, as supporters call it—which plays out mostly below the radar...thousands of obscure but unavoidable rules and regulations that multiply annually in the pages of the Federal Register—97,110 pages in 2016, an all-time high, which has come down to 68,082 last year.

...Taxes

...Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, at the end of 2017...The U.S. had the highest corporate tax rate of any developed economy, 35%, though deductions and credits meant few companies paid that rate. The U.S. was also one of the few major countries that still taxed a company’s income worldwide if it was brought back home, giving companies a strong incentive to leave non-U.S. earnings outside the U.S.

...But then something happened...The stock market boom has evaporated...Likewise, corporate profits are down. Economic growth, after accelerating, is slowing way down as well.

...What happened is no mystery. Trump has wiped out the benefits of his first-year policy successes by doubling down on his signature campaign issues, tariffs and immigration, adding a thick layer of uncertainty and chaos to his policy intentions, and raising federal indebtedness to new highs.

...Trade

...Whatever the damage, some fear it could persist for years. “What Trump has done to undermine our global leadership in terms of major multinational companies will be hard to undo,” says a former Republican cabinet member. “It’s smashing supply chains. Why should anyone want a U.S. company to be a supplier anymore? Why should Daimler want to build a plant in South Carolina anymore? He’s undermining our long-term prosperity.”

...Immigration

...“Some businesses and sectors rely heavily on non-native workers, and Trump basically blew it up.”

...On a larger scale, immigrants are crucial to U.S. economic growth because without them the population will shrink.

...Uncertainty

...(Trump is) America’s chief policymaker, and in that role unpredictability can be seen as unreliability or untrustworthiness. He has dramatically increased the uncertainty surrounding U.S. policy on multiple issues, and considerable evidence shows that it’s significantly harming the economy and business.

...Debt and deficits

...The U.S. has entered unexplored financial territory in the past three years as Congress and President Trump put the federal government much deeper into debt while the economy is growing. Plus-sized federal deficits are standard practice in recessions, but not during expansions.

...Businesspeople would love an immigration policy that prioritizes the value immigrants can bring to the economy rather than keeping people out. They want China to stop forcibly extracting U.S. technology and intellectual property, but they don’t want the U.S. economy held hostage in the process. And they’d like it all done in a stable, rational, predictable way, which is the way they try to run their businesses.

...He isn’t going to change course. For businesspeople, today’s Trump is no longer the friend he briefly was.

https://fortune.com/longform/trump-policies-bad-for-business-trade-immigration-t...

32margd
Nov 30, 2019, 10:51 am

Comments due Dec 02, 2019 11:59 PM ET:
https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=FNS-2019-0009

Trump administration proposals could cause millions to lose food stamps
Phil McCausland | Nov 30, 2019

“SNAP is related to hunger and getting people the nutrition they need,” one food bank representative said. “Food shouldn’t be a luxury.”

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/trump-administration-proposal-could-cause-m...

33margd
Jan 7, 2020, 9:44 am

American Consumers, Not China, Are Paying for Trump’s Tariffs
Jeanna Smialek and Ana Swanson | Published Jan. 6, 2020. Updated Jan. 7, 2020.

...Examining the fallout of tariffs in data through October, the authors found that Americans had continued paying for the levies — which increased substantially over the course of the year. Their paper, which is an update on previous research, found that “approximately 100 percent” of import taxes fell on American buyers.

The findings are the latest evidence that voters and American businesses are paying the cost of Mr. Trump’s penchant for using tariffs to try to rewrite the terms of trade in favor of the United States.

Manufacturing is slumping, a fact economists attribute at least partly to uncertainty stemming from the trade spats, and business investment has suffered as corporate executives wait to see how — or if — the tensions will end.

The United States and China have reached a trade truce and are expected to sign an initial deal this month, but tariffs on $360 billion worth of Chinese goods will remain in place. The levies, which are as high as 25 percent, have forced some multinational businesses to move their operations out of China, sending operations to countries like Vietnam and Mexico.

...They also found a delayed impact from the tariffs, with the decline in some imports roughly doubling on average in the second year of the levies...“it takes some time for firms to reorganize their supply chains so that they can avoid the tariffs...The steel industry isn’t getting that much protection..."

In previous research, the authors found that by December 2018, import tariffs were costing United States consumers and importing businesses $3.2 billion per month in added taxes and another $1.4 billion per month in efficiency losses. They did not update those numbers in the latest study.

...American businesses had less success passing on the costs of those tariffs to Chinese importers, most likely because of the types of goods being sold...undifferentiated commodities, like agricultural goods, but China sends many specialized consumer goods like silk embroidery, laptops and smartphones to the United States. China can easily swap Brazilian soybeans for American ones, but the types of goods that China sends to the United States are harder for American businesses to substitute...

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/06/business/economy/trade-war-tariffs.html

34margd
Jan 23, 2020, 4:45 pm

Twitter Reacts to Trump Saying He's Open to Cuts in Medicare and Other Entitlement Programs
Melissa Lemieux | 1/23/20

After making protecting Medicare, Social Security and other social programs important campaign tentpoles during his 2016 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump said during a CNBC interview with Joe Kernen on Wednesday that he'd be open to cutting funds to such programs in the future.

"At some point they will be. We have tremendous growth. We're going to have tremendous growth. This next year, it'll be toward the end of the year. The growth is going to be incredible. And at the right time, we will take a look at that...You know, that's actually the easiest thing of all things, if you look. Because it's such a big percentage."

He added that "we're going to look" at cutting Medicare as well.

"We also have assets we've never had. We've never had growth like this, we've never had a consumer that was taking in through different means, over $10,000 a family. We've never had the kind of things we have," he concluded...

https://www.newsweek.com/twitter-reacts-trump-saying-hes-open-cuts-medicare-othe...

352wonderY
Jan 23, 2020, 4:50 pm

>34 margd: He's completely incoherent.

36lriley
Jan 24, 2020, 10:33 am

#35--It's very coherent to me. Really it's more that he doesn't understand the implications of what he's saying. Not only that the Democratic party can use this statement to leverage away I would suspect lots of middle age and elderly people on a political level--that's because he's playing one part of his base--a noisier part mind you---against another part. That said Joe Biden has some problems on this issue. But the other major implication is the lack of empathy for the elderly and infirm. Once again it shows he simply does not care about people at least outside his immediate circle of sycophantic friends and enablers.

37margd
Jan 24, 2020, 2:40 pm

The last person he spoke to...usually "his immediate circle of sycophantic friends and enablers"... :(

He has such a long track record of lies, that it's unbelievable that anyone would trust him to take care of their healthcare, old age, national security, business, etc.

38lriley
Jan 24, 2020, 6:47 pm

#37--I agree but also older Americans many of whom depend and some of whom depend solely on their Social Security to keep their heads above or even level with water are his targets here. Of course he doesn't understand this--he's never had to deal with desperation and he thinks everything is tradable---that everything can be a quid pro quo to benefit his own sorry ass. Whoever is the democratic nominee has something here to exploit against him.

39margd
Jan 29, 2020, 7:50 am

Americans pay the full cost for Trump's aluminum tariffs
Dion Rabouin | 1/28/2020

(Study) President Trump's tariffs have notably increased the price of aluminum for U.S. businesses and consumers,

..."It’s pretty safe to say that it's 100%," Douglas Holtz-Eakin, president of think tank American Action Forum and a former director of the Congressional Budget Office, (and study co-author)...

...The price of aluminum worldwide spiked in April after the Treasury Department put sanctions on Russian producer Rusal, following Trump's announcement of 10% aluminum tariffs on every country (with exceptions eventually carved out for allies like Australia, Canada and Mexico).

...Those price increases have since unwound in global markets, but U.S. customers continue to pay higher prices, as shown by the so-called Midwest

...Trump on Friday doubled down on the aluminum tariffs, adding derivative aluminum products such as nails, tacks, staples, wire and parts for cars and tractors, meaning more price hikes are likely on the way...

https://www.axios.com/americans-pay-cost-aluminum-tariffs-144b82e4-df0e-453d-976...

40margd
Feb 4, 2020, 12:58 pm

#RELEASE: (Financial Services Committee) Chairwoman @RepMaxineWaters' Statement on
Regulators' Ongoing Efforts to Weaken the #VolckerRule

https://go.usa.gov/xdZER
Image ( https://twitter.com/FSCDems/status/1224464864309104640/photo/1 )
Image ( https://twitter.com/FSCDems/status/1224464864309104640/photo/2 )

Financial Svcs Cmte @FSCDems | 5:49 PM · Feb 3, 2020:

41margd
Feb 9, 2020, 6:52 am

Real pay data show Trump’s ‘blue collar boom’ is more of a bust for US workers, in 3 charts
David Salkever | February 7, 2020

...From December 2016 to September 2019, nominal wages rose 6.79% from $22.83 to $24.38. But after factoring in inflation, average wages barely budged, climbing just 0.42% in the period.

...The nominal data for manufacturing workers hardly support a boom but they do show an increase of 2.22% since Donald Trump took office.

The inflation-adjusted or real value of fringe benefits, which include compensation that comes in the form of health insurance, retirement and bonuses, declined 1.7% in the three-year period.

...The adjusted data (for manufacturing workers), however, make it look more like a bust, with wages plunging 3.88% in the period. And, again, the situation is worse when we add in fringe benefits, which brings the decline to 4.33%...

http://theconversation.com/real-pay-data-show-trumps-blue-collar-boom-is-more-of...

43margd
Feb 17, 2020, 6:25 am

>42 LolaWalser: Good topic for ads as we get closer to election. Too complicated to explain to interviewer, etc. e.g., Sunday, Martha Radditz (ABC) kept "yeah, but jobs, economy" to Amy Klobuchar, who was trying to explain slow wage gains. Trump is running on the economy. People need to be educated, e.g., the cost of tariffs to ordinary consumers. Topics lend themselves to ads?

Wonder if Bloomberg would run such ads? Trump will be running on the economy, and people NEED to see dark underpinnings.

Sanders doesn't want Bloomberg money(?), so any help in general election, if Bloomberg is candidate would have to go through DNC or Super PAC?

44margd
Mar 24, 2020, 12:36 pm

Man dies after self-medicating with chloroquine
Bob Herman | March 23, 2020

"A man has died and his wife is under critical care after the couple, both in their 60s, ingested chloroquine phosphate, an additive commonly used at aquariums to clean fish tanks," one of the anti-malaria drugs that President Trump has mentioned in recent days, according to Banner Health, the hospital system that treated both patients...

https://www.axios.com/chloroquine-coronavirus-death-09c91a91-4fe7-472c-9de9-79b8...

45rastaphrog
Mar 25, 2020, 10:29 am

>44 margd: Which is just one reason among many that Trump shouldn't be doing any kind of talking about anything medical. The couple just knew that he was touting Chloroquine and didn't realize the difference. Who knows what else people may be trying because Trump mentioned it even tho medical experts continue to try and play it down until there's further study and positive results.

46margd
Aug 7, 2020, 5:45 pm

Young people (TikTok), Canada, (aluminum, Chinese revenge), Dem states (National Guard payments), suburban moms (school reopenings), seniors (Social Security, Medicare), all of us (COVID "leaderhip")--who HASN'T the Donald offended this week?

Trump implementing a payroll tax cut through executive order would blow a hole in Social Security and Medicare's finances, economists warn
Joseph Zeballos-Roig | 8/7/2020

Over the past week, the president has threatened to circumvent Congress and sign an executive order to enact a payroll tax cut. The tax refers to the 15.3% levy on wages imposed by the federal government, and evenly divided between employers and workers. Most of it funds Social Security, but it also helps finance Medicare.

But experts say the step would further erode the shaky finances of both safety-net programs by yanking a critical source of funding.

"Trump's scheme would weaken the Social Security and Medicare trust funds by diverting the revenue from the employee portion of Social Security and Medicare taxes, and potentially the employer's share of Medicare taxes, from the programs' trust funds," the memo from the Center for American Progress said.

...Trump, the memo said, lacks the authority to appropriate funds (to replace lost revenue), which is Congress's purview.

...executive order wouldn't lead to a bump in wages for most workers, since the executive branch can only defer tax payments up to a year and not forgive them. Wiping out the payment requires an act of Congress.

...The massive wave of layoffs due to the pandemic has weakened the programs' finances by slashing the amount of payroll tax revenue streaming into their trust funds. Around 13 million fewer people are employed in July compared to February.

The Bipartisan Policy Center projects that if the economic damage is similar to that of the Great Recession a decade ago, the Social Security trust funds could be depleted in 2029. That could prompt a 31% cut in retirement benefits...Before the pandemic, that program's trustees estimated the program's funding would lapse in 2035 without taking the coronavirus outbreak into account.

The Medicare trust fund is in worse shape. Its trustees said the program would run out of money in 2026 — also without accounting for the pandemic.

https://www.businessinsider.com/trump-executive-order-payroll-tax-cut-social-sec...

47margd
Aug 10, 2020, 9:38 am

Fed policy could leave retirees broke after crisis
A 5% yield on a $1m nest egg delivers $50,000 a year but the egg must be five times bigger to produce that at 1%
John Dizard | Aug 7, 2020

During the shambolic negotiations between Congress and the White House, one of US president Donald Trump’s proposals was to suspend the payroll tax funding social security for several months, ie long enough to buy some popularity before the elections. That was rejected by the Democrats for not covering the unemployed and for reducing the dedicated funding for the national pension system.

At the same time, there is a cross-party consensus that the Federal Reserve should not raise policy interest rates, and to continue open-ended funding of what will be an even larger federal deficit.

But Trump’s unloved (and cynical) proposal for a payroll tax cut, and the Fed’s path in the fixed income market are really the same thing: defunding Americans’ retirement income...

https://www.ft.com/content/5856d1c7-3174-4695-9e79-785bf88810e5

48margd
Aug 27, 2020, 8:47 am

Much More Than Checks: How Social Security Depends on the Mail
Mark Miller | Aug. 27, 2020

...the Social Security Administration...currently pays 99 percent of Social Security beneficiaries via direct deposit to a checking or savings account, or a government-issued debit card. But nearly 850,000 paper checks still are mailed each month to recipients of retirement, disability and Supplemental Security Income benefits. Social Security also sends and receives millions of pieces of mail every year, including notifications, requests for information, Medicare enrollment forms and replacement Social Security cards. More isolated, rural parts of the country are particularly vulnerable to problems within the postal system.

Moreover, the shutdown since March of Social Security’s national network of field offices because of the pandemic means that more business is being transacted through the Postal Service that normally would be handled through in-person visits.

Here are some key points to know about Social Security and the mail.
The shift to online payments
The shrinking paper statement
You’ve still got mail

...Nowadays, Social Security sends 350 million pieces of mail annually to support its programs, according to an agency report last year.

...The temporary closing of Social Security’s field offices also has made it impossible to conduct routine walk-in business.

...Some procedures require important original documents, such as marriage certificates, driver’s licenses or passports to be sent through the mail, said Kathleen Romig, a senior policy analyst at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. These include benefit claims, Medicare enrollment, issuing Social Security numbers and replacement cards, benefit verification statements and paperwork that must be filed to deal with changing life circumstances.

“They’re asking people to send in their original documents, which people are not thrilled about, and saying ‘Don’t worry about it, we’ll send it right back,’” she said. “Are we going to see back-ups now?”

The pandemic makes the U.S.P.S. more important than ever to Social Security’s operations, says Stacy Braverman Cloyd, director of policy and administrative advocacy for the National Organization of Social Security Claimants’ Representatives, a specialized bar association for lawyers and advocates who represent people claiming Social Security disability and Supplemental Security Income.

“To the extent the Postal Service becomes less reliable, or people have less confidence in it, those are real problems, and they couldn’t happen at a worse time.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/27/business/post-office-social-security-checks-m...

49margd
Aug 28, 2020, 4:15 pm

Wall Street Is Looting the American Retirement System. The Trump Administration Is Helping
David Bradley Isenberg | August 23, 2020

The Trump administration is opening up retirement funds to private equity — at workers’ expense

The Private-Equity Exposure
Undoing the Fiduciary Duty
A Fossil-Fueled 401(k)
Foxes Guarding the Retirement Coop

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/retirement-private-equit...

50margd
Oct 19, 2020, 12:44 pm

>32 margd: contd.
Federal judge halts Trump's proposed food stamp cutback for 700,000 Americans
Tim Fitzsimons | Oct 19, 2020

...In her Sunday ruling, U.S. District Court Chief Judge Beryl Howell wrote that implementing the change "radically and abruptly alters decades of regulatory practice, leaving States scrambling and exponentially increasing food insecurity for tens of thousands of Americans."

In December, the Department of Agriculture formalized a proposal for work requirements for recipients of food stamps, formally known as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, that would have disqualified an estimated 688,000 people from food benefits.

...In her ruling Sunday, Howell wrote that the department, which administers the food stamp program, had been "icily silent" about the number of people who would be affected by its proposed reduction in benefits, adding that one estimate from May 2020 found "SNAP rosters have grown by over 17 percent with over 6 million new enrollees."...

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/federal-judge-halts-trump-s-proposed-food-s...