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Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life…
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Deep Future: The Next 100,000 Years of Life on Earth

by Curt Stager

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Curt Stager is a professional palaeontologist and experienced science communicator. Regrettably this skill leads him to present some basic chemical and physical issues in a puerile manner. Nonetheless there is much good science reported here; although there is also confusion as he wrestles with the radical inconsistencies of his views and motives. He is certainly not a climate denier: he fully accepts all the predictions of climate science. What is more, he recognizes that humanity is causing the changes. However, he notes that nature has probably delivered similar climate shifts in the past. Furthermore the archaeological record shows that many species do survive such changes. So why worry? He struggles with this question throughout the book. He notes that the global climate is fickle and unreliable over the long time. CO2 pollution is cumulative and long lasting. Reasonably he concludes that we should not panic. Furthermore he is unconcerned with the inevitable death toll or societal collapses. Thus he argues that full-scale climate change is a likely problem not the apocalypse.

His reasoning is not reassuring. Disappointingly he finds it hard to acknowledge any responsibility for the unintended consequences – even when known – produced by actions such as carbon pollution. He takes comfort from his suspect beliefs that the rich (ie supposedly America) will always command most of the world’s resources, and North America will fair relatively well as climate changes occur. He explains how the acidification of the oceans will decimate important fish stocks for many nations, the rising sea level will inundate low-lying countries like Bangladesh; desertification will encroach on the productive Southern-most regions of Europe, Africa and Australia. Thus crop yields will fall in previously fertile areas, and many species will be driven to extinction. However, these changes happen gradually over human lifetimes. Meanwhile a hypothetical insular beef-eating America will have more sun and more rain to grow their corn.

Nevertheless he does acknowledge we should move away from the carbon economy. However, his primary reason is that we should lock up some easily accessible coal as a safeguard against future needs to manipulate the climate. Hence he sees no urgency; he advocates an aim of 600 ppm of CO2 – not the safer limit of 450 ppm (or lower) suggested by most climate scientists. He might think he is being a political realistic: actually he displays reckless naivety. Crises – war, famine, disease, financial, commercial, piracy and terrorism – will spread across borders. ( )
  Jewsbury | Jul 12, 2011 |
The title doesn't make it clear that this is actually an Earth-sciences book, written by a paleoecologist. Message: after anthropogenic warming peaks, the ebbing of its side effects will take tens or hundreds or thousands of centuries. (The next scheduled ice age, however, won't happen.)
  fpagan | Apr 26, 2011 |
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Amazon.com Amazon.com Review (ISBN 0312614624, Hardcover)

Product Description

A bold, far-reaching look at how our actions will decide the planet’s future for millennia to come.

Imagine a planet where North American and Eurasian navies are squaring off over shipping lanes through an acidified, ice-free Arctic. Centuries later, their northern descendants retreat southward as the recovering sea freezes over again. And later still, future nations plan how to avert an approaching Ice Age... by burning what remains of our fossil fuels.

These are just a few of the events that are likely to befall Earth and human civilization in the next 100,000 years. And it will be the choices we make in this century that will affect that future more than those of any previous generation. We are living at the dawn of the Age of Humans; the only question is how long that age will last.       

Few of us have yet asked, “What happens after global warming?” Drawing upon the latest, groundbreaking works of a handful of climate visionaries, Deep Future helps us look beyond 2100 a.d. to the next hundred millennia of life on Earth. 



Amazon Exclusive: A Conversation Between Bill McKibben and Curt Stager

Bill McKibben is the author of Eaarth: Making a Life on a Tough New Planet.

Bill McKibben: How'd you come to worry about this global warming stuff in the first place?

Curt Stager: When your book, The End of Nature, first came out, I already knew about global warming but wasn't very worried about it yet. I'm a paleoclimatologist, so I was used to thinking about huge climatic changes of the distant past, and I also wasn't convinced by what was then the available evidence that humans are driving most of today's trend. But now so many excellent studies clearly demonstrate our central role in the warming of the last 30-40 years that I've moved on from "is it really happening" mode to "what does it mean" and "what can we do about it?" Another factor was a project that you asked me to do in support of one of your articles several years ago - to study the weather records in our home region in and around northern New York and Vermont. The latest data show that much of this area is actually warming faster than the global average, and ice stays on our lakes two weeks less in an average winter than it did a century ago. Because of all this, I suppose you could say that I'm a "reformed climate skeptic" now.

Bill McKibben: What kind of timescales do we need to be thinking on to really understand what's happening?

Curt Stager: We've got to expand our view of this issue a thousand-fold to really grasp it. According to the latest research, much of the heat-trapping carbon dioxide we release during our lifetimes will linger in the air not just for centuries but for tens of thousands of years, long enough to affect future ice ages.

Curt Stager: Eaarth is one of the most amazing book titles I've ever seen; in a single word it beautifully captures the essence of what you're trying to tell us about our influences on the planet. How did you come by it?

Bill McKibben: Well, I wanted a way to get across the idea that we're already living on an altered planet. Not as altered as it's going to be, but--for people my age, the iconic image of our planet was that first photo back from the Apollo spacecraft. And the world does not look like that any more. A lot less white up top! Somehow we have to figure out how to get the message across that global warming is not a problem for the future, it's a desperate crisis already.

Bill McKibben: Scientists are forever struggling to communicate effectively with the general public. You're a whiz at it, as this book, and your work in places like National Geographic, make clear. What advice would you give your colleagues?

Curt Stager: That's a fine compliment coming from a master wordsmith like yourself, but it's particularly nice to hear in my case because when I first started my scientific career, back in the 1980s, communicating with the public was openly frowned upon. Nowadays I'm glad to see that it's much more widely accepted, even encouraged, and there are many great opportunities for scientists to be trained in such things. I was fortunate enough to attend a public communications workshop sponsored by the National Science Foundation, for example. But don't be fooled, you science types; there's a lot more to writing effectively for the public than you may think. When it's done properly it appears smooth and natural, but that's not because it's easy; it's a sign of skill and effort. Pay this craft the respect it deserves and learn from people who know what they're doing, then go out and really earn your grants by letting us all know how you spent our tax dollars!

Curt Stager: You do a good job of keeping up with the latest developments in climate research even though you're not a professional scientist. Do you have any advice in that regard for non-science types who are trying to wade through the information jungle in search of current, reliable information about climate change?

Bill McKibben: Like any other huge field, you need some guides--picking someone like Jim Hansen who's been right again and again seems like a good strategy. You need to keep abreast of the important science as it develops. And you need to find some journalists who have paid attention for a long time: Bryan Walsh at Time, Andy Revkin at the New York Times, and so forth. But the trick is not to be too caught up in the details, and keep your eye on the main current: the debate about whether we're warming the planet is no longer interesting. What's interesting is what we're going to do about it.

(retrieved from Amazon Mon, 30 Sep 2013 13:22:37 -0400)

A paleoclimatologist makes predictions about how environmental choices in the twenty-first century will affect life on the planet throughout the distant future, drawing on geological history to argue that global cooling poses a more significant threat.… (more)

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