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MEGAMISTAKES: Forecasting and the Myth of…
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MEGAMISTAKES: Forecasting and the Myth of Rapid Technological Change

by Steven P. Schnaars

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I read this book a long time ago, but the core concept has been with me ever since. Some of it bogs down since it does have an academic flavor.
The basic idea is that technology forcasters are wowed by the technology and make inaccurate forcasts because they forget about all the other factors that determine whether a product will become dominant. Rember the BETA vs VHS war? Sony Beta had the better technology, but the VHS manufactors did a better job marketing and distributing their product. The video phone has been around since the 1960's. Do you have one yet?
Revised 2014: We do have a videophone now! It's called a Smartphone and it uses Apple Facetime or Skype or other me too apps. ( )
  TLCdave2007 | Dec 13, 2007 |
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Amazon.com Product Description (ISBN 0029279526, Hardcover)

Schnaars documents that there is no evidence to support the widely accepted hypothesis of accelerating change. He suggests that forecasters would do well to test their assumptions about the future with hard market questions grounded firmly in the present.

(retrieved from Amazon Thu, 12 Mar 2015 18:07:34 -0400)

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