Pakistan on the Brink: The Future of America, Pakistan, and Afghanistan

After the death of OBL last year and the recent disasters and frayed nerves and massacres of the recent campaign, there is often talk of a total withdrawal from Afghanistan, and a re-evaluation of the incredibly shaky relationship the US has with Pakistan.

This excellent supplement to "Pakistan: A Hard Country" and part of a trilogy (which I must read!) shows how muddled the whole situation has become, in clear and analytical sections. It has a solid journalistic tone, and moves relentlessly forward.

The United States, which had made some progress on a military front, has become further entangled with trying to maintain an economic and social basis for the Afghan state. The contradictory and tangled policies have improved little from the Bush quagmire. Although some promising policy documents have circulated, the hawks of the military continue to dominate the political discussion, and the President either has agreed to, or is unable to resist them.

Afghanistan had brief hopes of peace in 2002-3 (after the fall of the Taliban), and 2011 (after the death of OBL), but the Taliban has stubbornly clung on to rural areas, forming a shadow government, and is a feared opposition. Karzai has to balance between international opinion, and the strong forces of the US and Taliban opposition.

Pakistan is tottering, perhaps becoming too close to being a failed state. The four main ethnic groups (Pashtun-Kashmir-Sind-Baluchi), the military, the ISI, and the political parties are all at odds. The economy is frayed and dependent on World Bank/IMF income, and the national defense strategy is more focused against India (which the US is focusing greater diplomatic efforts on), and the FATA (Federally Administrated Tribal Area) is collapsing under poverty, illiteracy, and the hotbeds of extremism. The state is no total weakling, though - as their nuclear capacity has demonstrated.

Simply put, it's a mess. The author lists some very helpful and promising political and diplomatic changes, some of which have been implemented piece-meal, in both Pakistan and the US. But one finds here that the author is trying simply to keep his hopes up, that he is a hair's breath away from throwing up his hands in despair. But one has to keep trying, and hope that someday, people will learn from the past.

A frightening and necessary document. ( )

In this useful book, the author says about Pakistan, "For too long the military and political parties have neglected their one single task, which is to make life better for their people".

The author is a journalist based in Lahore (Pakistan) with a deep knowledge of the complex relationships between local power sources such as the ISI (Inter Services Agency - Pakistan military), Taliban (both Afghan and Pakistani), the Americans (political and military), the Afghan government and tribes and India.

The picture that emerges, is of tremendously abused populations in Pakistan and Afghanistan that would be delighted to see an end to their corrupt and self serving governments together with the Islamic fundamentalist terror groups that inhabit the region.

Rashid shows that in common with other residents of the middle east they look with longing at Turkey, as he says, "Turkey's prime minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan age fifty-seven, is a new hero for the Arab and Muslim world, taking on Muslim dictatorships like Syria, defending the Palestinians, tilting against Israel, yet firmly wedded to the West and the United States through NATO and other alliances; it is even up for membership in the twenty seven nation European Union."

After reading this book one can see that the only chance of getting from "here to there" would be a an unlikely Pakistan/Afghan "Arab Spring" , so for the forseeable future one would sadly expect Pakistanis to continue to emigrate from their disfunctional society. ( )

Ahmed Rashid is the absolute master with respect to writing about Afghanistan. Absolutely world class! ( )