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2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty…
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2052: A Global Forecast for the Next Forty Years (2012)

by Jorgen Randers

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Indeholder "Acknowledgments", "Preface: What Will the Future Bring?", "Part 1. Background", " 1. Worrying about the Future", " Why Now?", " Is a Forecast Possible?", " Why Forty Years?", " Bases for an Educated Guess", " Full Steam Ahead with a Peaceful Mind", " 2. Five Big Issues toward 2052", " The Sustainability Revolution", " Five Central Issues Involving System Change", " The End of Capitalism?", " Glimpse 2-1 The Dark Decades: Privilege and Polarization", " The End of Economic Growth?", " Glimpse 2-2 Constraining Asian Consumption", " The End of Slow Democracy?", " Glimpse 2-3 Shuffling toward Sustainability", " The End of Generational Harmony?", " Glimpse 2-4 Intergenerational War for Equity", " The End of Stable Climate?", " Glimpse 2-5 Extreme Weather in 2052", "Part 2. My Global Forecast", " 3. The Logic behind My Forecast", " The Guiding Star", " A Broad-Brush Picture", " A Brief Summary of My Story", " The Deterministic Backbone", " Linear Presentation of a Circular Maze", " The Mathematical Formulation", " A Final Note on the Data Base", " 4. Population and Consumption to 2052", " Population Will Peak", " Workforce Will Peak a Little Earlier", " Productivity Will Grow, but Meet Obstacles", " Production (GDP) Will Grow, but More and More Slowly", " Glimpse 4-1 The End of Uneconomic Growth", " Investments---Forced and Voluntary---Will Increase", " New Costs Will Emerge", " Adaptation and Disaster Costs Will Explode", " The State Will Get More Involved", " Glimpse 4-2 Light Green Growth", " Consumption Will Stagnate---and Fall in Some Places", " 5. Energy and CO2 to 2052", " Energy Efficiency Will Continue to Rise", " Energy Use Will Grow, but Not Forever", " Climate Intensity Will Be Reduced by Renewables", " Glimpse 5-1 The Road to PV", " Glimpse 5-2 The Death of Nuclear", " CO2 Emissions from Energy Will Peak in 2030", " Temperature Increase Will Exceed Plus 2°C", " Plus 2°C Will Cause Real Difficulties", " Glimpse 5-3 Troubled Arctic Waters", " Glimpse 5-4 The Flight to the City", " 6. Food and Footprint to 2052", " Food Production Will Satisfy Reduced Demand", " Biofuels and White Meat Will Advance", " Glimpse 6-1 Expensive Oil = Expensive Food", " Glimpse 6-2 The Limits to Protein", " Commercial Fish Stocks Will Be Confined to Regulated Fisheries", " Planetary Ecosystems Will Suffer", " Glimpse 6-3 The Race to Lose Last", " Unused Bio-capacity Will Plunge", " Glimpse 6-4 Urban Mining of Metals", " Glimpse 6-5 Nature Limited to Parks", " 7. The Nonmaterial Future to 2052", " Smaller GDP: Milder Push against Global Limits", " Slower Growth in Productivity", " Tensions from Declining Consumption", " Prevalence of Short-Termism", " Stronger Government", " Forced Redistribution", " Megacity Environment", " Glimpse 7-1 Megacity Living and Externalization of the Mind", " Omnipresent Internet", " Disappearing Charms", " Better Health", " Glimpse 7-2 Individual Health from Public Care", " Armed Forces Fighting New Threats", " Glimpse 7-3 The Future of War and the Rise of Robots", " Glimpse 7-4 Military for Sustainability", " 8. The Zeitgeist in 2052", " Fragmentation: More Focus on Local Solutions", " Glimpse 8-1 Scotland Joins New Europe", " Glimpse 8-2 The End of Mediterranean Disparity", " Glimpse 8-3 Slum Urbanism in Africa", " A New Paradigm: Less Fixation with Economic Growth", " Glimpse 8-4 Valuing the Whole", " Modified Capitalism: A Stronger Role for Wise Government", " Glimpse 8-5 Systemic CSR, or CSR 2.0", " Collective Creativity: A Web of Inspired Individuals", " Glimpse 8-6 Harnessing the Wisdom of the Crowd", " Glimpse 8-7 Peak Youth Gaming for the Public Good", " Intergenerational Equity: Widening the Lens", "Part 3. Analysis", " 9. Reflections on the Future", " The Main Drivers", " The Future in Graphs", " The Cliff-Hanger", " My Own Reactions", " Eight Straight Questions about the Future", " Wild Cards", " The Path to 2052", " Glimpse 9-1 Sudden Rush to Solar", " Glimpse 9-2 Financing the Future", " 10. Five Regional Futures", " Toward 2052: The United States", " Glimpse 10-1 Bright Solar Future", " Toward 2052: China", " Glimpse 10-2 China---the New Hegemon", " Toward 2052: OECD-less-US", " Toward 2052: BRISE", " Glimpse 10-3 Rich on Biofuels", " Toward 2052: Rest of the World", " 11. Comparison with Other Futures", " Testing against a Global Computer Model", " Comparison with The Limits to Growth Studies", " Overshoot and Collapse in Some Detail", " Perspectives on the Second Half of the Twenty-First Century", " Glimpse 11-1 The Fifth Cultural Step", " Glimpse 11-2 The Third Flowering of the Tree of Life", " 12. What Should You Do?", " What Global Society Ideally Should Have Done", " Twenty Pieces of Personal Advice", " Learn to Live with Impending Disaster without Losing Hope", "Closing Words", "Appendices", " 1. Summary", " 2. Definitions and Data Sources", " 3. Further Reading for the 2052 Glimpses", " 4. Extra Data on Fertility and Productivity", "Notes", "Index".

Et kvalificeret bud på hvor verden bevæger sig hen de næste 40 år. Meget, meget tankevækkende. ( )
  bnielsen | Dec 14, 2016 |
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Draws on global forecasting tools, the predictions of over thirty experts, and the author's experience in sustainability to speculate on the world's economic future, addressing overpopulation, renewable energy, and China as a superpower.

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