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The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That…
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The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action (edition 2014)

by Mathew Burrows

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7720346,614 (3.42)9
"Twenty-five years ago when Mathew Burrows went to work for the CIA as an intelligence analyst, the world seemed frozen. Then came the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union; suddenly, unpredictability became a universal theme and foresight was critical. For the past decade, Burrows has overseen the creation of the Global Trends report--the key futurist guide for the White House, Departments of State and Defense, and Homeland Security. Global Trends has a history of making bold predictions and being right:* In 2004, it argued that al-Qaeda's centralized operations would dissolve and be replaced by groups, cells, and individuals--the very model of the 2012 Boston bombings.* In 2008, it included a scenario dubbed October Surprise, imagining a devastating late-season hurricane hitting an unprepared New York City. Now, Burrows--for the first time--has expanded the most recent Global Trends report into a full-length narrative, forecasting the tectonic shifts that will drive us to 2030. A staggering amount of wholesale change is happening--from unprecedented and widespread aging to rampant urbanization and growth in a global middle class to an eastward shift in economic power and a growing number of disruptive technologies. Even our physical geography is changing as sea levels rise and faster commercial shipping routes open up through a warming Arctic region.The book concludes with its most provocative section: four fictional paths to 2030 with imagined storylines and characters based on analysis by the most authoritative figures in the intelligence community. As Burrows argues, we are living through some of the greatest and most momentous developments in history. Either we take charge and direct those or we are at their mercy. The stakes are particularly high for America's standing in the world and for ordinary Americans who want to maintain their quality of life. Running the gamut from scary to reassuring, this riveting book is essential reading"--… (more)

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The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action by Mathew Burrows

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This review was written for LibraryThing Early Reviewers.
This is a deeply conservative book. It's convinced that the way things are is the way they will stay if we will only exert ourselves to make it happen. The analytical chapters are, as one expects, very data-heavy and also very interesting if one will absorb them slowly. The end chapters are exercises in "scenario planning," and since that's something I used to do for my employer, I found more to criticize there.

Disruption never comes from thinking the same thoughts as you've always thought; the issue, really, is that the author argues for a course of action not simply allowing the data to spool out a story before him.

Worth the time and the effort to read it. ( )
  richardderus | Dec 7, 2022 |
This review was written for LibraryThing Early Reviewers.
One thing I like about a lot of non-fiction books these days, is that if there is something that interests you, there's probably a book out there that will introduce you to the subject and let you delve deeper into it's details and let you discover things you didn't know before. I'm usually always interested in these types of books, but it seems, that for me, my expectations for them are much too high. I've attempted to read a bunch of these books recently and it seems all but two have lost my interest within a few chapters. Sadly this book was no different.

I'm hoping my issue with these non-fiction books, may be that it's not the right time. Sometimes I get into a mood where some books interest me and others don't. But I'm not too sure. It seems like a lot of these books aren't written for the casual reader, one who doesn't always delve into non-fiction. It seems like they are written for someone who already has a tie to the book in their career somehow. I feel like this book, a long with the others aren't aimed at readers like me, and I lose interest. Like I've said before, I hope in the future to come back to this book and better appreciate it then, but for now, I sadly just can't get into it. ( )
  princess_mischa | Mar 22, 2015 |
This review was written for LibraryThing Early Reviewers.
Looking into the future can be a fascinating preoccupation. Mathew Burrows book, The Future Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action, is an insightful look at what is to come. It considers some things that could unravel life as we know it. In many ways global society could be on a fast-track towards doomsday. One such potentiality is the nightmare of long-range strategic weaponry, which seems to worry Matthew Burrows a great deal.

Author Burrows is surprisingly optimistic about possibilities, and how in many ways future generations could fare better. That's what I found most fascinating about the book. Americans should be encouraged by his guess that the U.S. could reach a state of energy self-sufficiency in just 10 to 20 years. Looking at immigration reform, he concludes that a growing population is an important economic asset. He foresees disease management technologies resulting in people living older and healthier.

A tad amount of fictional narrative can be found towards the end. That part of the book comes in an abrupt shift from the discussion that went before. But the stories are plausible and well-conceived. I enjoyed Burrows ability to foresee the possibilities through fiction as well as he does through nonfiction.

The book will intrigue any reader who thinks analytically. ( )
  JamesBanzer | Jan 11, 2015 |
This review was written for LibraryThing Early Reviewers.
A book that doesn't seem to know what it wants to be when it grows up. One half is a compilation, discussion, and analysis of current trends in the world and how they may play out in the future. One half are narratives built on the points in the first half of the book. The book is clearly written and organized. In this sort of book you inevitably find a lot of "if, then, maybe." The author presents the information in an easy to understand format. The book can be read in an afternoon.

I found nothing new for me in the first half of the book. Perhaps this is because I read The Economist? I feel like I have read about all the points he mentions.

I found the second half of the book distracting. The stories were interesting. I did not feel they added anything to the "value" of his book. ( )
  AzureMountain | Jan 4, 2015 |
This review was written for LibraryThing Early Reviewers.
The Furture Declassified is a book written by a retired analyst. He brings up a lot of things already happening in the world and gives a worse and best case scenario. The important thing he neglects to say is how politicians in all countries are going to work together. He also neglects the monetary issues that each country faces.

The author brings up how the "entitlements" need to be changed in order for the U.S. to stay a leader but as usual from someone that spent a lot of time in Washington D.C. the entitlements he talks about include social security which as everyone who has ever held a private sector job knows - we have to pay into social security!

This book is a whole lot of "what might happen" but politics will have to change world wide in order to make the changes to benefit everyone. ( )
  Kaysee | Dec 12, 2014 |
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"Twenty-five years ago when Mathew Burrows went to work for the CIA as an intelligence analyst, the world seemed frozen. Then came the fall of the Berlin Wall and the implosion of the Soviet Union; suddenly, unpredictability became a universal theme and foresight was critical. For the past decade, Burrows has overseen the creation of the Global Trends report--the key futurist guide for the White House, Departments of State and Defense, and Homeland Security. Global Trends has a history of making bold predictions and being right:* In 2004, it argued that al-Qaeda's centralized operations would dissolve and be replaced by groups, cells, and individuals--the very model of the 2012 Boston bombings.* In 2008, it included a scenario dubbed October Surprise, imagining a devastating late-season hurricane hitting an unprepared New York City. Now, Burrows--for the first time--has expanded the most recent Global Trends report into a full-length narrative, forecasting the tectonic shifts that will drive us to 2030. A staggering amount of wholesale change is happening--from unprecedented and widespread aging to rampant urbanization and growth in a global middle class to an eastward shift in economic power and a growing number of disruptive technologies. Even our physical geography is changing as sea levels rise and faster commercial shipping routes open up through a warming Arctic region.The book concludes with its most provocative section: four fictional paths to 2030 with imagined storylines and characters based on analysis by the most authoritative figures in the intelligence community. As Burrows argues, we are living through some of the greatest and most momentous developments in history. Either we take charge and direct those or we are at their mercy. The stakes are particularly high for America's standing in the world and for ordinary Americans who want to maintain their quality of life. Running the gamut from scary to reassuring, this riveting book is essential reading"--

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Mathew Burrows's book The Future, Declassified: Megatrends That Will Undo the World Unless We Take Action was available from LibraryThing Early Reviewers.

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303.4909Social sciences Social Sciences; Sociology and anthropology Social Processes Social change Social forecasts History and biography

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CB161.B87Auxiliary Sciences of History History of Civilization History of Civilization Forecasts of future progress

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