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Loading... The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbableby Nassim Nicholas TalebLibraryThing recommendationsMember recommendations
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will love Sign up for LibraryThing to find out whether you'll like this book. Taleb studied the markets and came up with his theory of randomness that uses mathematical models that relate to the real world to debunk the all-powerful hold on the public imagination exercised by the bell-shaped curve. The main point is that Gauss hides the rare events (black swans) at the extremes of a distribution and therefore underestimates the potential for destabilisation (of any system but particularly our social systems) that the occurrence of one of these events can actually exert on our lives. Good, strong and well-argued case; it attacks mainstream economic theorists for delivering ideas beased on detailed algorithms that give spuriously accurate results. The impact of the black swan events is unrecognised and therefore any theories so based will fail to work properly when they are most needed. Added to which, he finds time to suggest that we live our lives incorrectly when we think that it is necessary to run for a train. 'Don't run for trains' is his motto (derived from Mandelbrot) - it is beneath your dignity and life should not be lived at that level but in a more elevated and aesthetically defensible manner. Great inspirational read - to read again.  colinhyde | Sep 21, 2009 |  Fascinating stuff, but crippled by faulty premises. Whereas I can understand a person without a faith positing that there isn't a higher rationale guiding the universe, but I have a harder time with his assertion that his unique life with little responsibility gives him a clearer view of humanity. Essentially, he’s a classical erudite Epicurean who vilifies Platonists--who ironically boosts his huge ego through supposedly attempting to be pragmatic to the common man. Never mind that his scorn for common life cripples his ability to actually see things as the typical man (who he attempts to champion) does. (  ) ebnelson | Aug 28, 2009 | The author is a Lebanese expatriate who never got to go home permanently after the never-ending war in Lebanon. He graduated college in the USA, took a job as a floor trader at an investment firm, moved on to college professorships, and consultant positions. He is a theoretical Mathematician who takes a dim view of the "experts" who predict the economic markets. History is made not by the great men or the rise and fall of cultures but by outliers, Black Swans as he dubs them, which come unexpectedly, catching us unprepared, and with devastating consequences. His advice to the would-be investor in this time of risk: "I'm not telling you not to J-walk across the street, but I am asking you not to do so blindfolded". Black Swans may be inevitable, but they can make money for those who are prepared. (  ) brucedcassler | Aug 24, 2009 | The Impact of the Highly Improbable is not really what the book is about. This book reads as more of an ego-stroke, as Taleb does his best to point out that he seems to have tapped into a great realisation that nobody else seems to have grasped. He is also extremely deprecating of anyone not sharing his views. That aside, the book is interesting, and does point out that a large number of tools in use by market financiers and speculators are limited and misleading to those who have limited understanding. Taleb stands on the authority of having been successful himself - but while he points out that his peers' success is mostly due to luck, his success follows from his 'insight' into The Black Swan. In his own terms, there is likely a 'graveyard' of investors out there who understood the implications of The Black Swan, but were unlucky enough to bet on the wrong swan. The book is interesting, does offer some interesting thoughts, but doesn't go anywhere near far enough in what really matters (that is, it is more important to have a plan to mitigate the effects of a Black Swan, rather than limit the odds). (  ) horuskol | Aug 1, 2009 | NNT (as he calls himself) has some fascinating points and some interesting turns of phrase, though he does rather go on and on and on.... Leaving aside the long-winded somewhat self-absorbed writing style, NNT makes some interesting points that he illustrates well. He discusses the problems with the fact that humans seek validation for what they think (rather than challenging themselves) and why we cannot predict well in many circumstances. He spends a lot of time discussing the problems inherent with the use of a bell curve to predict things where the impact of extreme events really matter. Finally he spends (too little) time on what to do about all this. I took a few key points away from the book: - It is better, perhaps, to try and be generally right rather than precisely wrong - Beware of looking for more rules than really exist - Watch out for a tendency to prepare for "last war" - Rare and consequential events can be much more important than the "normal" stuff in the bell curve - Some things (that he calls "mediocristan") are such that the most typical is average and single instances don't impact the total much - Others (he calls these "extremistan") are more winner-takes-all kinds of environments where extreme events matter most - He makes the point that a thousand days cannot prove you right but one can prove you wrong There's more but it's a very long book and I am not going to attempt to summarize the nuggets spread throughout it here. Be prepared for a slog if you want to get everything you can out of the book - it goes on and on. 3 stars to average out 1 star for length and incoherence in places and 5 stars for some great content. ( )1  jamet123 | Jul 10, 2009 |  no reviews | add a review
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(retrieved from Amazon Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:58:01 -0400)
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