I don’t know enough about statistics or science to understand most of this book, but it didn’t really matter; I loved how Taleb turns statistics on its head and watches how it tries to keep standing. From this book away these big thoughts: You think they won’t, but black swans will happen. No one will expect them. Their impact will be astonishing. Go for the good black swans, however unlikely; stay away from the bad black swans, no matter what. ( )

Taleb certainly has good points to make with good advice on how to approach the risks from surprise events and the failure of standard statistical approaches to risk.However, the book suffers in places from a descent into diatribe. Taleb could certainly have cut this back considerably and made the book about half as long. It also takes a while to get going, so stick with it. Overall worth reading, but not an enjoyable read. ( )

비즈니스,경제

Taleb studied the markets and came up with his theory of randomness that uses mathematical models that relate to the real world to debunk the all-powerful hold on the public imagination exercised by the bell-shaped curve. The main point is that Gauss hides the rare events (black swans) at the extremes of a distribution and therefore underestimates the potential for destabilisation (of any system but particularly our social systems) that the occurrence of one of these events can actually exert on our lives. Good, strong and well-argued case; it attacks mainstream economic theorists for delivering ideas beased on detailed algorithms that give spuriously accurate results. The impact of the black swan events is unrecognised and therefore any theories so based will fail to work properly when they are most needed. Added to which, he finds time to suggest that we live our lives incorrectly when we think that it is necessary to run for a train. 'Don't run for trains' is his motto (derived from Mandelbrot) - it is beneath your dignity and life should not be lived at that level but in a more elevated and aesthetically defensible manner. Great inspirational read - to read again.

Fascinating stuff, but crippled by faulty premises. Whereas I can understand a person without a faith positing that there isn't a higher rationale guiding the universe, but I have a harder time with his assertion that his unique life with little responsibility gives him a clearer view of humanity. Essentially, he’s a classical erudite Epicurean who vilifies Platonists--who ironically boosts his huge ego through supposedly attempting to be pragmatic to the common man. Never mind that his scorn for common life cripples his ability to actually see things as the typical man (who he attempts to champion) does. ( )