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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers…
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You (edition 2003)

by Gerd Gigerenzer

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138586,938 (3.61)None
Member:realfish
Title:Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You
Authors:Gerd Gigerenzer
Info:Simon & Schuster (2003), Edition: 1, Paperback, 320 pages
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Calculated Risks: How to Know When Numbers Deceive You by Gerd Gigerenzer

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There is some good stuff in here, mired, unfortunately in cumbersome explanations and unnecessarily complicated stories/scenarios. I had hoped to add this to the toolbox to accompany Innumeracy (which Gigerenzer references), but there are other, better, books out there on the subject. Even the "fun" chapter was clumsy.

More's the pity, because, as I said, some good (obfuscated) stuff in here. ( )
  Razinha | May 23, 2017 |
In this book we are reminded to apply Bayes' rule about 100 times. The author has done studies about cognition, and finds that people are better able to remember and correctly apply Bayes' rule when data is presented in terms of what he calls "natural frequencies" as opposed to standard probabilities. I'm sure he's correct, it's what I do anyway. The fact that so many professional's are entirely incapable of applying Bayes' rule in any relevant situation is a disgrace...they should be more ashamed. ( )
  themulhern | Jan 19, 2015 |
How the punters think, and how health care professionals should think.
  mdstarr | Sep 11, 2011 |
This was an extended essay on reasoning using conditional probabilities and Baye's theorem. The author is a psychologist/statistician at Max Planck institute in Berlin. He makes an overblown case for the use of "natural frequencies" rather than conditional probabilities for calculation of risks. I have been trying to do this with patients, since his examples pretty much destroy arguments for screening tests for rare diseases. I leads me to wonder about the worth of many lab and MRI tests for diseases with low probability. ( )
  neurodrew | Aug 31, 2008 |
How the punters think, and how health care professionals should think.
  muir | Nov 9, 2007 |
Showing 5 of 5
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Amazon.com Amazon.com Review (ISBN 0743254236, Paperback)

In the tradition of Innumeracy by John Allen Paulos, German scientist Gerd Gigerenzer offers his own take on numerical illiteracy. "In Western countries, most children learn to read and write, but even in adulthood, many people do not know how to think with numbers," he writes. "I focus on the most important form of innumeracy in everyday life, statistical innumeracy--that is, the inability to reason about uncertainties and risk." The author wisely uses concrete examples from the real world to make his points, and he shows the devastating impact of this problem. In one example, he describes a surgeon who advised many of his patients to accept prophylactic mastectomies in order to dodge breast cancer. In a two-year period, this doctor convinced 90 "high-risk" women without cancer to sacrifice their breasts "in a heroic exchange for the certainty of saving their lives and protecting their loved ones from suffering and loss." But Gigerenzer shows that the vast majority of these women (84 of them, to be exact) would not have developed breast cancer at all. If the doctor or his patients had a better understanding of probabilities, they might have chosen a different course. Fans of Innumeracy will enjoy Calculated Risks, as will anyone who appreciates a good puzzle over numbers. --John Miller

(retrieved from Amazon Thu, 12 Mar 2015 18:20:13 -0400)

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