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A Philosophical Essay on Probabilities (1814)

by Pierre-Simon Laplace

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The work of the Marquis de Laplace (1749-1827) was enormously influential in the development of mathematical physics, astronomy and statistics. Educated in Normandy, he moved to Paris on obtaining a letter of introduction to d'Alembert, who acted as his mentor while he undertook teaching and independent research in probability, statistics and astronomy. Laplace survived the turmoil of the French Revolution, the rise of Napoleon and the restoration of the Bourbons by a series of manoeuvres which gave him a reputation for insincerity and hypocrisy even among his peers who could correctly assess his contributions to science. His Essai philosophique sur les probabilités, first published in 1814, and of which the fifth edition, revised by the author, is presented here, is a fundamental work which establishes six principles of probability in mathematical terms.… (more)
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Chapter 1. Introduction. This philosophical essay is the development of a lecture on probabilities which I delivered in 1795 to the normal schools whither I had been called, by a decree of the national convention, as professor of the mathematics of Lagrange. I have recently published upon the same subject a work entitled The Analytical Theory of Probabilities. I present here without the aid of analysis the principles and general results of this theory, applying them to the most important questions of life, which are indeed for the most part only problems of probability.
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The work of the Marquis de Laplace (1749-1827) was enormously influential in the development of mathematical physics, astronomy and statistics. Educated in Normandy, he moved to Paris on obtaining a letter of introduction to d'Alembert, who acted as his mentor while he undertook teaching and independent research in probability, statistics and astronomy. Laplace survived the turmoil of the French Revolution, the rise of Napoleon and the restoration of the Bourbons by a series of manoeuvres which gave him a reputation for insincerity and hypocrisy even among his peers who could correctly assess his contributions to science. His Essai philosophique sur les probabilités, first published in 1814, and of which the fifth edition, revised by the author, is presented here, is a fundamental work which establishes six principles of probability in mathematical terms.

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