경제,비즈니스

A slightly dated, but well-researched and concise treatment of the history of risk from ancient Greece up to the 1990s, with examples of risk management/mismanagement.

The author does a good job of humanizing what could be a dismally dull subject by sketching the personalities that pushed the sciences of probability, statistics and risk management forward.

Recommended reading for economics and finance students, financial professionals or interested laypersons. ( )

A fine treatment of the evolution of our understanding of risk -- the discovery of probability, the addition of rigor through mathematics, the application to economics, the theory of games, the psychology of "prospect theory," sunk costs, compartmental mental accounting, and the modern status. Bernstein covers the theories of rational expectations, chaos, neural networks, and ties them all together with interesting examples and historical incidents. He even gave me a new respect for Keynes in the process. Predominant themes: we vary in our rational decision-making ability, especially with regard to risk; the forecast of any market can be wrong because of the development of accurate models by others; regression to the mean, et al. The one gap in coverage here is that the Bayesian approach was barely broached. ( )

crude understandings to mathematical clarity. focuses on basic statistics and math, however. Doesn't make it to linear regressions :( ( )