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Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probability by Michael Kaplan
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Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probability

by Michael Kaplan

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This is an odd book: from the cover, it looks fascinating; from the first few pages, it seems much duller than anticipated; but by the end, it's a fascinating and surprisingly entertaining journey.

There's actually a little bit for everyone here, which is both the book's blessing and curse. The history and applications of probability are very well-detailed, which by necessity entails that some topics and chapters will be more interesting to some than will others. (I, for instance, loved the chapter on Gambling, but found the Figuring chapter to be rough going.)

All told, though a bit inconsistent, it's a fairly entertaining and certainly enlightening, educational read.
  dczapka | Mar 19, 2008 |
Not much actual math beyond such basics as Pascal's triangle and Bayes's theorem. Long-winded discourses on such topics as gambling, insurance, and statistics.
  fpagan | Mar 29, 2007 |
The authors are unusually brother and sister, with training in history and classics, not math. They write very well, however, and seem very intelligent in their presentation. The book is organized around professional areas, medicine, law, economics, etc, describing the issues in probability and statistics for each one. Bayes theorem remains a difficult area for understanding. The calculation of risk should be by absolute frequency, not relative risk, because of the difficulty in understanding Bayes analyses. ( )
  neurodrew | Mar 6, 2007 |
It's tough to make probability interesting and understandable. This book doesn't quite get the balance right, although there are lots of interesting parts to it. ( )
  teaperson | Sep 16, 2006 |
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Book description

Amazon.com Product Description (ISBN 0670034878, Hardcover)

A layman’s journey into the realm of probability—from poker to politics, weather to war, Monte Carlo to mortality

We search for certainty, but find only likelihood. All things are possible, only one thing actually happens; everything else is in the realm of probability. The twin disciplines of probability and statistics underpin every modern science and sketch the shape of all purposeful group activity— politics, economics, medicine, law, sports—giving humans a handle on the essential uncertainty of their existence. Yet while we are all aware of the hard facts, most of us still refuse to take account of probability—preferring to drive, not fly; buying into market blips; smoking cigarettes; denying we will ever age.

There are some people, though—gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists— who find probability’s mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. Chances Are is their story. Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide-ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like E=MC2 and The Golden Ratio but by anyone interested in the workings of fate.

(retrieved from Amazon Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:58:16 -0400)

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