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Loading... Chances Are . . .: Adventures in Probabilityby Michael Kaplan
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will love Sign up for LibraryThing to find out whether you'll like this book. Not much actual math beyond such basics as Pascal's triangle and Bayes's theorem. Long-winded discourses on such topics as gambling, insurance, and statistics. The authors are unusually brother and sister, with training in history and classics, not math. They write very well, however, and seem very intelligent in their presentation. The book is organized around professional areas, medicine, law, economics, etc, describing the issues in probability and statistics for each one. Bayes theorem remains a difficult area for understanding. The calculation of risk should be by absolute frequency, not relative risk, because of the difficulty in understanding Bayes analyses. It's tough to make probability interesting and understandable. This book doesn't quite get the balance right, although there are lots of interesting parts to it. no reviews | add a review
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There are some people, though—gamblers, risk buyers, forensic experts, doctors, strategists— who find probability’s mass of incomplete uncertainties delightful and revelatory. Chances Are is their story. Combining philosophical and historical background with portraits of the men and women who command the forces of probability, this engaging, wide-ranging, and clearly written volume will be welcomed not only by the proven audiences for popular books like E=MC2 and The Golden Ratio but by anyone interested in the workings of fate.
(retrieved from Amazon Fri, 24 Apr 2009 07:58:16 -0400)
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There's actually a little bit for everyone here, which is both the book's blessing and curse. The history and applications of probability are very well-detailed, which by necessity entails that some topics and chapters will be more interesting to some than will others. (I, for instance, loved the chapter on Gambling, but found the Figuring chapter to be rough going.)
All told, though a bit inconsistent, it's a fairly entertaining and certainly enlightening, educational read.