I'm not sure what to make of this book .Basically, Cribb is saying that we are currently outstripping the planet's resources and we will face famine in many areas. The famine will be related to increasing populations, degraded soils, climate change and the consequent rise in sea levels which will inundate huge areas of agricultural land, water shortages, and pollution of the air, the sea, current water resources and the land. There is currently unsustainable overfishing of the resources in the sea and we are over-reliant on too few strains of cereal varieties etc., etc. So it's a somewhat familiar "doomsday" scenario. I don't have too much disagreement with most of his claims and his facts except for a couple of critical ones. At least since Malthus published his thinking, economists have simply retreated behind the mantra of "our science/technology/intelligence will solve the problem". And, of course, this has generally proven correct...with the green revolution being the main feather in the cap of the scientists. To some extent Cribb's arguments are reflected in the book "The wizard and the prophet", by Charles Mann.....where Norman Borlaugh is the wizard. But, the world's population is not currently growing at the rates previously predicted and is slowing down remarkably fast. In most advanced countries we will be relying on net inward migration even to sustain the existing population numbers. That is certainly the case in Australia. And Japan's population has been declining for some time with the consequent decline in property prices for the last 30 or so years. So reduced rates of growth in population will relieve pressure to some extent. And we can still do a lot with technology.....especially if we are able to continue to harvest renewable energy. With energy we can distill water and grow crops in urban vertical factories. With energy we can synthesise meat and other proteins...though we may initially need some protein feedstock like soybeans. So some of the problems may be tractable. Of course, these solutions are solutions for the developed world ...at least initially and rapid population growth and political instability in Africa may mean the African problems get exported (as they are now to Europe).
Yes, Cribb raises some clear warning signs but hard to know whether to side with the optimists or the pessimists. The reality is that neither side is relying on facts...it's all about "gut feel". ....or faith!.
But, under these circumstances where, if the optimists are right...then it can be business as usual but if they are wrong then things can rapidly become catastrophic. So should we play safe and give some credence to the doomsday people and put some serious effort into remediating the situation. First and foremost we need to deal with the population issue. Elsewhere I've read, that the greatest thing that can be done to slow down runaway population growth is to keep girls at school for a few more years; they get educated, and it postpones pregnancies. Sounds sensible but, of course, it's being opposed by various religious based fundamentalist groups. However, we should not underestimate the resourcefulness of the women of the world in bring about change.
And, of course, we should be continuing to invest in agricultural research which has been in decline for years now...in relative terms.
Overall, I enjoyed the book whilst at the same time I found myself questioning Cribb's line of reasoning. Four stars from me. ( )