The Third Wave

Toffler (Alvin with his wife Heidi), of course, is one of the sages of the 20th century, and this book is another triumph of intuition, understanding, and a keen sense of ongoing processes. The main thesis is that the western world is coming to the end of the industrial revolution, and is transforming itself in many ways that amount toa Third Wave (the first was the Agricultural revolution, the second the Industrial). In this new dispensation, peoplemaree no longer dependent on society and their neighbours, they no longer want steady jobs, the economy gradually moves away from producing industrial and manufactured goods toward intellectual and knowledge products (and entertainment and creative works) for both production and consumption show more at the same time: the rise of the 'prosumer'. Many aspects of Toffler's scenario find ready resonance in our own experience: the younger generation not going after settled jobs, or residence, or marriage. But the question arises: is this a manifestation of a rise above a certain level of wealth, or is it something happening right across classes? The book, brilliant though it is, has certain drawbacks: its inordinate size (a very Second Wave character!), a frequent tendency to exaggerate and universalize, and the almost complete blind spot to religious fundamentalism and geopolitical hegemony. Hence the three stars. show less

Toffler's main thesis, that de-massification of production is leading to a kind of economy based upon home-based, independent, information-work contractors slash everyone has a home makerspace run by their off-grid, or perhaps, decentralized peer-peer networked alternative energy sources doesn't seem any more or less likely than any other imagined future. I think he'd be disappointed at how reactionary "Second Wavers" have been and how successfully they've caught the Third Wave. E.g., "school choice" to my knowledge is almost entirely the purview of the conservative religious movement, not progressives. Toffler does acknowledge that these historical Waves are amoral and spends some time talking about bad scenarios, though his show more overwhelming thrust is optimistic. I have to wonder how much of the pessimistic parts were a response to the general 70's malaise.

What always cracks me up about books like this is, here is someone that has come up with a comprehensive anthropological and historical explanation and framework for human history and future development, yet is neither an anthropologist nor a historian. Does his outsider status give him a clarity of vision, or is he essentially just a somewhat ponderous science fiction author? When picturing The book's scenarios, I kept thinking of SnowCrash and The Diamond Age, also The Dispossessed, which all imagine de-centralized, de-massified societies. show less

Toffler è stato considerato un "futurologo" e sotto molti punti di vista questo libro è profetico. Al di là della metafora delle tre ondate e di alcuni neologismi di successo (tecnosfera, sociosfera, infosfera), il testo include alcune sorprendenti previsioni sul presente, per esempio quelle legate alla progressiva demassificazione dei media (perfettamente rappresentata da internet), allo sviluppo delle organizzazioni di impresa o al riemergere del "prosumer". Il tutto è reso ancor più significativo dal fatto che il libro è del 1980.

The direct sequel to the remarkably prescient Future Shock, written a decade later as the 1970's came to a close. While inevitably a few sections are rather dated, the majority could just as easily been written in 2019 as 1979.

While the book by the author of Future Shock may seem not as forward-looking as it was in the 70's, there is still a wealth of societal insight contained here.

MUCH OF WHAT TOFFLER WROTE HAS FRIGHTENINGLY COME TO PASS THIS MAN COULD READ THE SIGNS OF THE TIME INTO THE FUTURE VERY WELL

An early look at what post-industrial society might look like.