$20 Per Gallon: How the Inevitable Rise in the Price of Gasoline Will Change Our Lives for the Better

$20 Per Gallon by Christopher Steiner looks at what the rising price of oil will do the average American lifestyle. The chapters are divided up by price ranges, starting with relatively small price increases and then much larger ones.

The idea of the book is to show just how dependent the modern American lifestyle is on petroleum, from transportation, to plastics, to lighting and heating, and so forth.

Transportation will need to be reinvented, or retooled. Air travel will be de-emphasized for other forms: like trains and perhaps ships. Of course the American rail system both long distance and intercity was largely gutted starting the 1940s and ending in the 1970s with the creation of Amtrak. Much of this change was forced by the show more automobile industry, pushing busses and personal automobiles.

But the book assumes a very homogenous American lifestyle. Gasoline even at its cheapest in the 1990s was never as slow in California as it was the midwest. Yes, there were still a bunch of SUVs (parents, duped into believing they needed them to safely cart their kids around.

Looking locally, since gasoline prices have wobbled between $3 and $5.50 a gallon for about the last ten years, there have been a number of changes. Plastic consumption is down where I live (though mostly to avoid litter, rather than to save on petrol). Cars have gotten smaller and hatchbacks are in vogue again (having last been popular in the early 1990s). Parking lots are starting to install solar panels on their roof tops. The local gas and electric utility offers us online monitoring of our usage and incentives to conserve. BART is getting extensions to its service (though still not anywhere close to it was original envisioned in the 1970s) and there's a bullet train in the works.

But my experience in the Bay Area is no more representative to the entire country than the author's is. The energy problem is huge and diverse. show less

Christopher Steiner, civil engineer and journalist, has written a thought provoking book about the end of the gasoline age and how it will change society, transportation and the economy. The chapter titles (e.g. Chapter $6, Society Change and the Dead SUV) representing levels at which various things become uneconomical or economical. As the price of gas goes up, air travel will become rare and expensive, WalMart will die, the off-shoring trend will reverse, food production will go back to being more local, etc. He discusses various other forms of energy production. There is a bibliography at the end and an index which could have used a bit more proof reading. I didn't check the whole index but it references a Volkswagen "Ketta" which is show more really a Jetta on the target page and there was at least one reference that was a page off. I realize this book is aimed at an American audience, but it would have been nice to have some reference to the metric system for the rest of us. For the record, $20 per gallon is $5.67 Canadian per litre.

Steiner's journalism background shows in his ability to write an accessible, clear and organized book, which was a pleasure to read. He highlights the opportunities that the end of affordable gasoline offers and the reader is left with a picture of a pretty attractive future - less pollution, people living closer together in more ecologically sustainable communities supported by local food production, the renaissance of small town centres (as long as the small towns in question are on rail lines and/or rivers). As the subtitle indicates, he's focusing on how the rise of gasoline will change our lives for the better.

As a place to start discussion, this book is great, but I finished it with many questions and a fear that the real future will be somewhat less rosy. What happens if (as seems to be the case where I live) governments and big business continue to pretend that everything is fine and there's unlimited gas left and don't start the preparations now for the end of the fossil fuel era? What if they keep bailing out uneconomical petroleum-based industries instead of supporting innovation and development of new technologies? Rail may be more economical when the cost of gas is $18 a gallon but it's a lot cheaper to build the rail network NOW, and the rail companies and the government have spent years ripping up track and selling off the rights-of-way. Remote and northern communities will die along with energy/water hogs like Las Vegas because they can't produce enough local food to support themselves, the transportation networks don't exist to supply them economically and how many small town jobs will pay enough to keep people above the poverty line? It's a thorny issue in far northern communities today - it will only get worse. I hope this book will open a few eyes and spark a few innovators to start taking matters into their own hands, because I don't see the government doing anything. show less

Steiner's done a decent job on researching the future impacts of steadily growing petroleum prices on the lifestyles of people in the future. Well, almost decent, but yet, in most terms half-baked.
The book's tag should be more aptly be, "How the Rising Cost of Gasoline Will Radically Change American Lives", as the book covers nothing outside the boundaries of the USA; which is, for the majority of the population of the world, distantly inconsequential.
I would, as a citizen of a developing economy be more interested in a global perspective of the radical changes to the world - like the world economy, globalization, international politics and terrorism, predictions on emerging technologies and geographies, etc.
Not that I have anything show more against Americans, but this book was too narrowly focused for my taste, which does not include the inconveniences an American suburban family with 3-4 cars in their driveway would face.
I'd suggest reading something else more worthwhile your time. show less

Some day the $4 per gallon gas prices experienced in the summer of 2008 will be recalled as the good old days when gasoline was a bargain. In the long run, the author contends, the coming high prices for gasoline will be good for us.

Our addiction to oil, Steiner's research says, has contributed to all manner of ills, among them pollution, long and stressful commutes, poor nutrition, and insufficient exercises. As world demand for oil grows and supply plateaus or shrinks, the price will climb inexorably to unprecedented levels.

If Steiner is correct or even half-correct, then the direct hit to our collective wallets will become so pronounced that it will force most of us to change the way we live our lives and the way our country works. show more The good news is that we could eventually come out on the other side with numerous, significant societal improvements.

The inevitable effects the author foresees include the evaporation of demand for houses in far-flung suburbs, trains supplanting planes as the dominant form of long-distance travel within the country, and the gradual disappearance of disposable plastic items. In that context, Steiner sees healthier lifestyles, improved environmental quality, and many other benefits large and small.

The book takes time to describe some of the technologies that have (and don't have) a good potential to be of use in an economy where oil and its derivatives are expensive. It also speculates of which products and means of travel will be greatly diminished (hint: don't invest in airline stocks).

The book is divided into chapters discussing changes that will take place at each step along the way; $6/ gallon, $8/gallon, $10/gallon, and so on to $20/gallon. Predicting the future is not an exact science, so not everything is going to necessarily happen as described in this book. But the author provides enough statistics and reasons to back up his forecasts to make them very believable.

The author doesn't say much about how fast we will reach $20/gallon gas. One place he says we'll reach $10/gallon in ten years. So I suppose it follows that we can expect $20/gallon in twenty years. It is my own thought that the future will go in one of two directions. Either we will experience $20/gallon gasoline in the not too distant future, or we will have a depressed world economy. One thing we have learned from the past year's economic recession is that fuel purchases are greatly reduced when the economy crashes. That is part of the reason why current prices (late 2009) are less than $4/gallon. Viewed in this way, $20/gallon prices would be indicative of a vibrant world economy, which would be good news. show less

Honestly, I loved the utopia Christopher Steiner builds in $20 Per Gallon. No surprise there--it aligns pretty closely with my own worldview. I've been saying for far too many years that the only way we're going to drive conservation and alternative energy efforts is for the price of petroleum to significantly rise.

Steiner has clearly done his research. He paints a detailed picture of just how intertwined petroleum is in our daily lives. It not only powers our cars, it's a primary building block in everyday items from plastics and synthetic fabrics to cosmetics. Each increase in the price of petroleum will affect our lives more fully as whole industries must evolve or die out, giving rise to new ones. As that happens, we'll be forced to show more build a more sustainable economy and way of life.

I do have a few quibbles. Most importantly, I felt that the book glossed far too lightly over the disruption this will cause. While I agree that change is inevitable, it's not likely to be as easy or as rosy as outlined in the book. The pain felt by middle America at the $2+ rise in gas prices last year was real and sustained. That's going to be magnified when the price of petroleum really starts to rise.

It should also be noted that some of the early predictions are already impossible. Steiner can't be faulted since he was using data gathered in the midst of the 2008 gas price bubble.

Finally, Steiner ends on such a complete utopia that it feels unreal and slightly cheapens the detailed analysis in earlier chapters. I'd love it if that's where we really end up. I'm just not so sure the way is so smooth and so clear.

[In the interest of full disclosure, I was awarded this book as a LibraryThing Early Reviewer. But, had I heard about it first, I'd have gladly paid for it!] show less

Synopsis:

Engineer Christopher Steiner argues that the petroleum will become more scarce in the future and that the price of gasoline and oil will similarly increase. He then proceeds to extrapolate how price increases will impact us individually, as a nation, and globally.

The book is organized in a clever manner - each of the ten chapters describes a different scenario based upon the cost of gas. To sum up, here's the list of chapters:

* $ 4 per gallon: The Road to $20 and Civilization Renovation
* $6 per gallon: Society Change and the Dead SUV
* $8 per gallon: The Skies Will Empty
* $10 per gallon: The Car Diminished but Reborn
* $12 per gallon: Urban Revolution and Suburban Decay
* $14 per gallon: The Fate of Small Towns, U.S. show more Manufacturing Renaissance, and Our Material World
* $ 16 per gallon: The Food Web Deconstructed
* $18 per gallon: Renaissance of the Rails
* $ 20 per gallon: The Future of Energy

Each chapter describes in careful detail the repercussions of drastic increases in the cost of petroleum.

Review:

In $20 Per Gallon, Christopher Steiner makes a compelling argument for the careful management of our resources while describing dramatic changes in the near future. The detailed research behind his statements makes the book an interesting and worthwhile read, but it is his extrapolations that make the book stand out.

Personally, while I was aware that petroleum is a limited resource, I enjoyed his analysis. For instance, he presents a coherent picture of how we can expect an increase in demand from different directions. Going beyond the usual list of how petroleum is used in many everyday products and the growing demand from China to meet its evergrowing production requirements, Steiner brings up technological and market innovations like $2,500 Nano by Tata Motors, increased prosperity in India and China, and increased petroleum consumption in the Middle East.

Here are just a few more of the ideas that caught my attention:

* At $8 per gallon, the cost of flying will be prohibitively high and airlines that have been under considerable financial stress will likely go under. The cost of flying will also decrease both domestic and international travel for business and tourism. Even college students may select schools closer to their homes and prefer local universities and colleges - which would have larger repercussions in the field of education.
* At $10 per gallon, Steiner suggests that the production and use of biodegradable plastic will become more attractive. While I had heard about biodegradable plastic, I enjoyed learning about Dr. Oliver Peoples and his company Metabolix which produces biodegradable plastic that is being used to package products with limited shelf life.
* Steiner described the current planning and construction of a new and technologically smart South Korean city of Songdo. 1,500 acres of reclaimed land, will be completely new and is being touted as the most energy and resource efficient city in the world. Water conservation will be critical and graywater will be installed on a citywide basis. Sustainable design will be apparent and has influenced so many different aspects of the construction from the elevators and concrete to the green roofs and solar cells.
* At $14 per gallon, Steiner predicts the decline of big box stores like Walmart. As China's eighth largest trading partner, the cost of shipping and distribution will grow prohibitively high while shoppers will be detered from the cost of driving 5 to 10 miles to the closest big box store.

As the above shows, Steiner has painted scenarios that likely to trigger interesting and important discussions. I believe most of us would benefit from reading $20 Per Gallon.

Publisher: Grand Central Publishing; 1 edition (July 15, 2009), 288 pages.
Courtesy of Hatchette Books Group. show less

This book presents an interesting premise: What if... the prize of gas would reach $6, $8, $10 or even $20 per gallon. While not everybody would share the expectation that we will reach any of these prizes very soon, considering the different scenarios is not only an interesting exercise in prediction, but also shows how utterly dependent we have become of the liquid gold. Steiner does an excellent job walking us through the consequences of this unfortunate dependencies. I suppose where I may disagree with him is when he predicts that the demise of cheap oil will lead us to a rosy future. It may, but on the way, we will have to endure unbelievable economic hardships. Just consider the resultant demise of the airline industry - it will show more be difficult to run companies, research collaborations or simply visit your family overseas, when air travel will become impossible. Moreover, the reliance on local food only will be hard to maintain. How will cities be fed? How will we feed people in marginal areas? How will they be able to afford food if gas costs $20/gallon. Steiner opens our eyes to the tremendous challenges we face once the oil spigot runs dry - and the possible opportunities it may present. Highly recommended, intellectually stimulating read. show less