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May Contain Lies: How Stories, Statistics, and Studies Exploit Our Biases―And What We Can Do about It by Alex Edmans
I enjoyed this book a lot, and the "Ladder of Misinference" is a very useful representation to keep in mind when evaluating information (a statement is not a fact; a fact is not data; data is not evidence; evidence is not proof).
I found it interesting that the author mentions works or criticisms by John Ionanidis, Emily Oster, and (indirectly) Tim Noakes. The specific work cited by each of these three in the book isn't necessarily invalid, but It's curious that all three of these people's show more more recent work has been called into question for the very things that this book warns against. If a 2nd edition were to be issued, the book would be strengthened by removing any mention of them. show less
I found it interesting that the author mentions works or criticisms by John Ionanidis, Emily Oster, and (indirectly) Tim Noakes. The specific work cited by each of these three in the book isn't necessarily invalid, but It's curious that all three of these people's show more more recent work has been called into question for the very things that this book warns against. If a 2nd edition were to be issued, the book would be strengthened by removing any mention of them. show less
I like the main point of this book: rather than treating something as inherently flawed—in this case, the current global economic system—you can identify its gaps and transform them into something valuable. It shows that no matter the circumstances, improvement is always possible; a small shift in perspective can turn limitations into opportunities for profit.
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The book argues that businesses should create profits by creating value for society, not by extracting it. This approach is show more called Pieconomics—growing the total value (“the pie”) for all stakeholders rather than fighting over slices.
Pieconomics vs. CSR vs. Shareholder Value
CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility)
→ Often separate from the core business, reactive, and about “offsetting harm” (e.g. donations).
→ Many firms can’t afford it, especially in crises.
Enlightened Shareholder Value (ESV)
→ Invests in stakeholders only if it increases long-term profits.
→ Stakeholders are a means to profit.
Pieconomics
→ Social value is the goal, profits are the by-product.
→ Stakeholders are an end in themselves.
→ Especially important when outcomes are uncertain, long-term, and intangible.
Growing vs. Splitting the Pie
Pie-splitting: One group gains at another’s expense (e.g. exploiting workers, price-gouging customers).
Pie-growing: Creating more total value through innovation, excellence, human capital, and environmental renewal.
Three Principles to Guide Decisions
A company should invest in stakeholders only if all three are satisfied:
Multiplication
→ Does $1 spent create more than $1 of benefit to stakeholders?
Comparative Advantage
→ Is the company better suited than others to create this value?
Materiality
→ Are the beneficiaries material to the company’s long-term success?
If all three hold, value creation is likely to flow back into profits.
Why Profit-Maximization Alone Fails
Profits are backward-looking and hard to predict.
Intangible investments (health, culture, innovation) are:
uncertain,
long-term,
poorly captured by spreadsheets (NPV).
Focusing only on measurable profits leads to short-termism and underinvestment.
Key Insights
Growing the pie ≠ growing the firm.
Value is created only if social benefits exceed social opportunity costs.
Not all “good” actions raise profits—and that’s okay.
Doing well on material stakeholder issues improves long-term returns; doing everything indiscriminately does not.
Excellence in a firm’s core activity is often the most powerful way to serve society.
Leadership, Pay, and Investors
The problem isn’t how much leaders are paid, but what pay incentivizes.
Long horizons, simplicity, and ownership encourage pie-growing behavior.
Investors matter: stewardship, engagement, and long-term orientation help firms invest in intangibles.
Buybacks aren’t inherently bad—but should come after value-creating investments.
Purpose
Purpose defines who the company is for (material stakeholders) and why it exists (comparative advantage).
It must be focused, lived internally, and embedded in strategy—not just a slogan.
Bottom Line
Profits matter—but as an outcome, not an objective.
Companies that are intrinsically motivated to serve society, guided by judgment rather than narrow calculation, are more likely to grow the pie—and ultimately reward investors too.
If you want, I can:
compress this into one exam-ready page,
turn it into bullet notes for ESG / strategy, or
relate it directly to materiality frameworks (which you were working on earlier).
make it more detailed
Got it — here’s a much more detailed, structured summary, still readable but closer to chapter-level depth. Think of this as something you could confidently use for exam prep, a paper, or class discussion.
Grow the Pie – Detailed Summary
1. The Central Problem
Modern capitalism faces a legitimacy crisis. Many citizens believe firms:
prioritize executives and shareholders,
exploit workers and customers,
worsen inequality and climate change.
In response, two extremes dominate:
“Maximize shareholder value” (Milton Friedman, simplified)
Over-regulation / anti-capitalist reforms
The book argues both miss the point. The real solution is not redistributing a fixed pie, but expanding it.
2. What Is “The Pie”?
The pie is the total value an enterprise creates for society.
Society includes:
investors,
employees,
customers,
suppliers,
communities,
governments,
the environment.
If firms focus only on investors, they lose their social license to operate.
3. Pie-Splitting vs. Pie-Growing
Pie-splitting
Zero-sum thinking
One group gains by shrinking another’s slice
Examples:
raising profits by underpaying workers,
cutting costs by polluting,
stakeholder activism that demands profit cuts without value creation.
Pie-growing
Positive-sum thinking
Increasing total value created
Achieved through:
innovation,
excellence in core business,
human capital development,
environmental renewal.
4. Why CSR Is Not Enough
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR):
usually siloed,
often compensatory (“offsetting harm”),
depends on spare profits.
Problems:
many firms cannot afford CSR (especially in crises),
CSR treats responsibility as optional and external.
Pieconomics, by contrast:
is embedded in the core business,
defines the firm’s primary mission as serving society,
applies even when money is tight.
5. Shareholder Value vs. Enlightened Shareholder Value vs. Pieconomics
Traditional Shareholder Value
Focus: short-term profits
Assumes markets and regulation will fix social problems
Enlightened Shareholder Value (ESV)
Invest in stakeholders if it boosts long-term profits
Advantages:
clarity (single objective),
focus.
Limitations:
ignores externalities unless they affect profits,
underinvests in intangibles,
relies on uncertain profit forecasts.
Pieconomics
Motivation: intrinsic, not instrumental
Objective: social value
Profits: a by-product, not the goal
Stakeholders: ends, not means
Key claim:
Pursuing profits directly often backfires; pursuing social value often leads to profits.
6. The Limits of Calculation
Financial tools like NPV fail because:
intangible benefits are uncertain,
benefits are long-term and heavily discounted,
profits are measurable only after decisions are made.
Thus:
“maximize shareholder value” is theoretically elegant but practically unworkable.
Pieconomics replaces calculation with judgment.
7. Growing the Pie ≠ Growing the Firm
Value is created only if:
social benefits exceed social opportunity costs.
Under ESV:
firms consider private opportunity costs.
Under Pieconomics:
firms consider society’s opportunity costs.
Example:
building a factory may crowd out schools or hospitals.
sometimes not investing creates more value.
Hence:
Firms are not responsible for maximizing jobs, but for allocating talent where it best serves society.
8. The Three Principles of Pieconomics
1. Principle of Multiplication
Question:
Does $1 spent create more than $1 of benefit to stakeholders?
Focuses on stakeholder benefit, not profit.
Applies to:
creating positive value,
reducing negative harm (pollution).
If not satisfied → the activity destroys value.
2. Principle of Comparative Advantage
Question:
Is the firm better suited than others to create this value?
A firm should act only where:
it controls the activity, or
it has unique expertise.
Examples:
Apple → reduce its own packaging (yes)
Apple → feed the homeless (no, unless surplus food)
Coca-Cola → vaccine logistics (yes, cold-chain expertise)
This avoids inefficient “good intentions”.
3. Principle of Materiality
Question:
Do the stakeholders affected matter to the firm’s long-term success?
Materiality comes from:
business materiality (impact on future value),
intrinsic concern (ethical responsibility).
Key insight:
Investing in material stakeholders improves long-term returns.
Trying to please everyone leads to mediocrity.
All Three Must Hold
Only when:
benefits exceed costs,
the firm has a comparative advantage,
stakeholders are material,
→ does value creation likely turn into profit.
9. Evidence: Does Pieconomics Work?
Research shows:
firms strong on material ESG issues outperform the market,
firms that score high on everything do not.
benefits take years to show up in stock prices.
Markets:
undervalue intangibles,
reward patience.
10. Leadership, Pay, and Incentives
The problem is not pay levels, but pay structure.
Good incentives:
long-term equity ownership,
simplicity,
long horizons.
Bad incentives:
short-term targets,
complex bonuses,
pay ratios (pie-splitting logic).
11. Investors and Stewardship
Investors grow the pie through:
engagement,
monitoring,
informed voting.
Key idea:
stewardship should follow comparative advantage.
not all investors should engage equally.
long-term orientation matters more than holding period.
12. Buybacks
Buybacks:
are not inherently bad,
should come after value-creating investment,
can be efficient when firms lack good opportunities.
The real enemy:
short-term pressure that discourages investment.
13. Purpose
Purpose answers:
Why the firm exists
Who it is for
A good purpose:
is selective,
guides trade-offs,
is embedded in strategy, culture, and metrics.
Purpose without action is meaningless.
14. Broader Implications
Pieconomics applies beyond firms:
to investors,
employees,
customers,
citizens.
At every level:
cooperation > zero-sum thinking,
excellence > symbolic gestures,
long-term value > short-term wins.
Final Takeaway
Capitalism does not need to be replaced—it needs to be reoriented.
To reach the land of profit, follow the road of purpose. show less
---
The book argues that businesses should create profits by creating value for society, not by extracting it. This approach is show more called Pieconomics—growing the total value (“the pie”) for all stakeholders rather than fighting over slices.
Pieconomics vs. CSR vs. Shareholder Value
CSR (Corporate Social Responsibility)
→ Often separate from the core business, reactive, and about “offsetting harm” (e.g. donations).
→ Many firms can’t afford it, especially in crises.
Enlightened Shareholder Value (ESV)
→ Invests in stakeholders only if it increases long-term profits.
→ Stakeholders are a means to profit.
Pieconomics
→ Social value is the goal, profits are the by-product.
→ Stakeholders are an end in themselves.
→ Especially important when outcomes are uncertain, long-term, and intangible.
Growing vs. Splitting the Pie
Pie-splitting: One group gains at another’s expense (e.g. exploiting workers, price-gouging customers).
Pie-growing: Creating more total value through innovation, excellence, human capital, and environmental renewal.
Three Principles to Guide Decisions
A company should invest in stakeholders only if all three are satisfied:
Multiplication
→ Does $1 spent create more than $1 of benefit to stakeholders?
Comparative Advantage
→ Is the company better suited than others to create this value?
Materiality
→ Are the beneficiaries material to the company’s long-term success?
If all three hold, value creation is likely to flow back into profits.
Why Profit-Maximization Alone Fails
Profits are backward-looking and hard to predict.
Intangible investments (health, culture, innovation) are:
uncertain,
long-term,
poorly captured by spreadsheets (NPV).
Focusing only on measurable profits leads to short-termism and underinvestment.
Key Insights
Growing the pie ≠ growing the firm.
Value is created only if social benefits exceed social opportunity costs.
Not all “good” actions raise profits—and that’s okay.
Doing well on material stakeholder issues improves long-term returns; doing everything indiscriminately does not.
Excellence in a firm’s core activity is often the most powerful way to serve society.
Leadership, Pay, and Investors
The problem isn’t how much leaders are paid, but what pay incentivizes.
Long horizons, simplicity, and ownership encourage pie-growing behavior.
Investors matter: stewardship, engagement, and long-term orientation help firms invest in intangibles.
Buybacks aren’t inherently bad—but should come after value-creating investments.
Purpose
Purpose defines who the company is for (material stakeholders) and why it exists (comparative advantage).
It must be focused, lived internally, and embedded in strategy—not just a slogan.
Bottom Line
Profits matter—but as an outcome, not an objective.
Companies that are intrinsically motivated to serve society, guided by judgment rather than narrow calculation, are more likely to grow the pie—and ultimately reward investors too.
If you want, I can:
compress this into one exam-ready page,
turn it into bullet notes for ESG / strategy, or
relate it directly to materiality frameworks (which you were working on earlier).
make it more detailed
Got it — here’s a much more detailed, structured summary, still readable but closer to chapter-level depth. Think of this as something you could confidently use for exam prep, a paper, or class discussion.
Grow the Pie – Detailed Summary
1. The Central Problem
Modern capitalism faces a legitimacy crisis. Many citizens believe firms:
prioritize executives and shareholders,
exploit workers and customers,
worsen inequality and climate change.
In response, two extremes dominate:
“Maximize shareholder value” (Milton Friedman, simplified)
Over-regulation / anti-capitalist reforms
The book argues both miss the point. The real solution is not redistributing a fixed pie, but expanding it.
2. What Is “The Pie”?
The pie is the total value an enterprise creates for society.
Society includes:
investors,
employees,
customers,
suppliers,
communities,
governments,
the environment.
If firms focus only on investors, they lose their social license to operate.
3. Pie-Splitting vs. Pie-Growing
Pie-splitting
Zero-sum thinking
One group gains by shrinking another’s slice
Examples:
raising profits by underpaying workers,
cutting costs by polluting,
stakeholder activism that demands profit cuts without value creation.
Pie-growing
Positive-sum thinking
Increasing total value created
Achieved through:
innovation,
excellence in core business,
human capital development,
environmental renewal.
4. Why CSR Is Not Enough
Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR):
usually siloed,
often compensatory (“offsetting harm”),
depends on spare profits.
Problems:
many firms cannot afford CSR (especially in crises),
CSR treats responsibility as optional and external.
Pieconomics, by contrast:
is embedded in the core business,
defines the firm’s primary mission as serving society,
applies even when money is tight.
5. Shareholder Value vs. Enlightened Shareholder Value vs. Pieconomics
Traditional Shareholder Value
Focus: short-term profits
Assumes markets and regulation will fix social problems
Enlightened Shareholder Value (ESV)
Invest in stakeholders if it boosts long-term profits
Advantages:
clarity (single objective),
focus.
Limitations:
ignores externalities unless they affect profits,
underinvests in intangibles,
relies on uncertain profit forecasts.
Pieconomics
Motivation: intrinsic, not instrumental
Objective: social value
Profits: a by-product, not the goal
Stakeholders: ends, not means
Key claim:
Pursuing profits directly often backfires; pursuing social value often leads to profits.
6. The Limits of Calculation
Financial tools like NPV fail because:
intangible benefits are uncertain,
benefits are long-term and heavily discounted,
profits are measurable only after decisions are made.
Thus:
“maximize shareholder value” is theoretically elegant but practically unworkable.
Pieconomics replaces calculation with judgment.
7. Growing the Pie ≠ Growing the Firm
Value is created only if:
social benefits exceed social opportunity costs.
Under ESV:
firms consider private opportunity costs.
Under Pieconomics:
firms consider society’s opportunity costs.
Example:
building a factory may crowd out schools or hospitals.
sometimes not investing creates more value.
Hence:
Firms are not responsible for maximizing jobs, but for allocating talent where it best serves society.
8. The Three Principles of Pieconomics
1. Principle of Multiplication
Question:
Does $1 spent create more than $1 of benefit to stakeholders?
Focuses on stakeholder benefit, not profit.
Applies to:
creating positive value,
reducing negative harm (pollution).
If not satisfied → the activity destroys value.
2. Principle of Comparative Advantage
Question:
Is the firm better suited than others to create this value?
A firm should act only where:
it controls the activity, or
it has unique expertise.
Examples:
Apple → reduce its own packaging (yes)
Apple → feed the homeless (no, unless surplus food)
Coca-Cola → vaccine logistics (yes, cold-chain expertise)
This avoids inefficient “good intentions”.
3. Principle of Materiality
Question:
Do the stakeholders affected matter to the firm’s long-term success?
Materiality comes from:
business materiality (impact on future value),
intrinsic concern (ethical responsibility).
Key insight:
Investing in material stakeholders improves long-term returns.
Trying to please everyone leads to mediocrity.
All Three Must Hold
Only when:
benefits exceed costs,
the firm has a comparative advantage,
stakeholders are material,
→ does value creation likely turn into profit.
9. Evidence: Does Pieconomics Work?
Research shows:
firms strong on material ESG issues outperform the market,
firms that score high on everything do not.
benefits take years to show up in stock prices.
Markets:
undervalue intangibles,
reward patience.
10. Leadership, Pay, and Incentives
The problem is not pay levels, but pay structure.
Good incentives:
long-term equity ownership,
simplicity,
long horizons.
Bad incentives:
short-term targets,
complex bonuses,
pay ratios (pie-splitting logic).
11. Investors and Stewardship
Investors grow the pie through:
engagement,
monitoring,
informed voting.
Key idea:
stewardship should follow comparative advantage.
not all investors should engage equally.
long-term orientation matters more than holding period.
12. Buybacks
Buybacks:
are not inherently bad,
should come after value-creating investment,
can be efficient when firms lack good opportunities.
The real enemy:
short-term pressure that discourages investment.
13. Purpose
Purpose answers:
Why the firm exists
Who it is for
A good purpose:
is selective,
guides trade-offs,
is embedded in strategy, culture, and metrics.
Purpose without action is meaningless.
14. Broader Implications
Pieconomics applies beyond firms:
to investors,
employees,
customers,
citizens.
At every level:
cooperation > zero-sum thinking,
excellence > symbolic gestures,
long-term value > short-term wins.
Final Takeaway
Capitalism does not need to be replaced—it needs to be reoriented.
To reach the land of profit, follow the road of purpose. show less
May Contain Lies: How Stories, Statistics, and Studies Exploit Our Biases―And What We Can Do about It by Alex Edmans
2024 book #42. Some help in navigating the flood of studies we read about every day. Not necessarily an easy task but the key lesson is that you shouldn't believe everything you read in a newspaper or on the Internet. But you already knew that but here's how to check things out.
Statistics
- Works
- 5
- Members
- 71
- Popularity
- #245,551
- Rating
- 3.7
- Reviews
- 3
- ISBNs
- 13


