Chris Kahrl

My first memory of the people who founded Baseball Prospectus is from the "Joe Carter" flame-war at the newsgroup rec.sport.baseball. Back in 1994, Joe Carter was widely assumed--because of his very high RBI totals--to be one of the best hitters in baseball. So when I came across people like Gary Huckaby arguing instead that RBI was a worthless statistic, my initial skepticism gave way to a conversion of sorts. After following their arguments for a few months, I realized that almost show more everything I had ever learned about baseball statistics was wrong.

And while I didn't always agree with (or even understand) the rationales for all the new statistics, I've always understood the larger project. And that project has been to isolate a player's contextual performance so that all player performances (past and present) can be both directly compared and--as a byproduct of historical comparison--confidently predicted.

Over the years, BP has been so successful with their project that what started as a truly revolutionary (ideologically as well as statistically) approach to player performance has become mainstream and fan-friendly without compromising its focus on context-neutral, evidence-based analysis. This success is reflected in BP's shift from a focus on confrontation with baseball's front-office types to one of selling them a product.

And what a product it is. Even though BP's recent work is less personality-driven than years past, it's also less foolishly cocksure and more consistent and dependable. The number of laugh-out-loud-funny player comments has declined, but the overall accuracy of those comments seems to have increased. The team profiles have also become more insightful as BP has supplemented its player analysis with insider knowledge of the organizations. The statistical essays are as inpenetrable as ever, but that's okay, since there's something in the book for everyone. In fact, I'd go so far as to say this is the only pre-season MLB guide any baseball fan would really need to buy.

I just received my copy yesterday, so I haven't read it cover to cover yet (and probably won't, entirely), but my sole complaint so far is the poor quality of the cover and pages. The decision to go this way is probably cost-related, in the effort to keep such a thick book under $20. But since I keep my BPs forever (back to 1998), I'd gladly pay another $5-$10 for something a little more sturdy. Also, the number of typos is far too high--I would gladly proofread next year's edition for free just to stop all these misspellings. show less

I have about 12 of these Baseball Prospectus annuals now, and I love them. But I'm beginning to wonder if the end is in sight. The writing is still good, the team-by-team analysis is still first-rate, the statistics are still amazing, but the overall product is declining. Several years ago they went to a cheaper paper, binding, and ink, and this year there's not even an index (you have to download it from baseballprospectus.com). Where the player comments used to be insightfully funny, they show more are now insightfully bland, and the articles at the back ("Fungoes") seem almost an afterthought. The good news is that the number of typos is not quite as high this year. But even so, they're still there and they've crept into the statistics, so that Astros pitcher Roy Oswalt is listed as having thrown over 2000 innings last year.

My suspicion is that one of these years the gang at BP will decide that putting out a print annual is just too much trouble, and they will instead put the book's contents online. That would be a shame--despite all the value-added opportunities--since grazing the print annual every spring and summer is one of the joys of baseball season. But they should really decide whether they want to put out a real book or not. If so, charge me the extra $10 so I can have real pages, real ink, and real editing. show less

Got this for free just to see how I'd like the yearly prospecti . . . surprisingly open to other kinds of evaluation than the strictly stats-based. Generally well written with a capsule analysis of practically everyone likely to make a contribution in the coming season. A few good essays to boot.

Being an exhaustive prologomena to the 2007 season, with tons of statistics about each player and every conceivable prospect as well as quick looks at ballparks, managers, and whatever else the contributors think is germane. The book is famously produced under sabermetric assumptions, but the reader doesn't have to have much buy-in to that methodology to appreciate the book. Despite the contributors doing a good job of keeping their comments interesting with pop culture references and gentle show more humor, and the considerable advantage of having a self-selected audience which shares their interest , the book takes a long time to read; I'd allow a month. show less