The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind
by Donella H. Meadows, William W. Behrens, III, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers
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In 1972, three scientists from MIT created a computer model that analyzed global resource consumption and production. Their results shocked the world and created stirring conversation about global 'overshoot,' or resource use beyond the carrying capacity of the planet. Now, preeminent environmental scientists Donnella Meadows, Jorgen Randers, and Dennis Meadows have teamed up again to update and expand their original findings in The Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Global Update. Meadows, show more Randers, and Meadows are international environmental leaders recognized for their groundbreaking research into early signs of wear on the planet. Citing climate change as the most tangible example of our current overshoot, the scientists now provide us with an updated scenario and a plan to reduce our needs to meet the carrying capacity of the planet. Over the past three decades, population growth and global warming have forged on with a striking semblance to the scenarios laid out by the World3 computer model in the original Limits to Growth. While Meadows, Randers, and Meadows do not make a practice of predicting future environmental degradation, they offer an analysis of present and future trends in resource use, and assess a variety of possible outcomes. In many ways, the message contained in Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a warning. Overshoot cannot be sustained without collapse. But, as the authors are careful to point out, there is reason to believe that humanity can still reverse some of its damage to Earth if it takes appropriate measures to reduce inefficiency and waste. Written in refreshingly accessible prose, Limits to Growth: The 30-Year Update is a long anticipated revival of some of the original voices in the growing chorus of sustainability. Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update is a work of stunning intelligence that will expose for humanity the hazy but critical line between human growth and human development. show lessTags
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This is the most important book that I have ever read, but 30 years too late! They established in 1972 that we were heading to exceeding our planets capacity to meet our needs. In 2020 they redid their numbers and established that we had now exceeded that point. We are taking far more and dumping too much beyond what our planet can sustain without catastrophic collapses.
To take two simple but self-evident pointers.World population grows exponentially, each new generation is an increase on the previous and then that increase is further increased by the next generation. Our economic regulating system depends on increased consumerism, if we stop buying we are in recession, if the fail to buy more than last time, we are in recession. Add show more that to the increasing population, that has to be fed, more mouths to feed, more food to be produced and they need to buy to survive, so more goods needed to made and the outcome is simple. Seen from space our planet is very finite. We take, extract, from our planet to make stuff and we dump back on/in our planet all the waste stuff that is not needed or not wanted or when it is no longer useful.
This book explores all the myriad reasoning's that resources are being depleted, or increasing means to extend them, delays to record or implement recovery, feedback loops and accumulating evidence that our broadly stable and favourable environment is tipping into a chaotic system which is unlikely to be favourable to humans. Balanced by sketching out mechanisms and our skill sets we could use to defer, or slow this progress towards that tipping point.
If you do nothing else, make sure you do read Chapters 7 and 8 show less
To take two simple but self-evident pointers.World population grows exponentially, each new generation is an increase on the previous and then that increase is further increased by the next generation. Our economic regulating system depends on increased consumerism, if we stop buying we are in recession, if the fail to buy more than last time, we are in recession. Add show more that to the increasing population, that has to be fed, more mouths to feed, more food to be produced and they need to buy to survive, so more goods needed to made and the outcome is simple. Seen from space our planet is very finite. We take, extract, from our planet to make stuff and we dump back on/in our planet all the waste stuff that is not needed or not wanted or when it is no longer useful.
This book explores all the myriad reasoning's that resources are being depleted, or increasing means to extend them, delays to record or implement recovery, feedback loops and accumulating evidence that our broadly stable and favourable environment is tipping into a chaotic system which is unlikely to be favourable to humans. Balanced by sketching out mechanisms and our skill sets we could use to defer, or slow this progress towards that tipping point.
If you do nothing else, make sure you do read Chapters 7 and 8 show less
When this book hit the Dutch market in 1972 (was there a market at that time?), i almost immediately bought and read it. Fifteen years old, the only reason i could afford it, was because the publisher priced it at 2,50 Dutch guilders (about a US dollar). This, because it was the fifth hundred publication in the Aula series of Het Spectrum (the publisher). No wonder half of the world sales came from the Netherlands.
And again, fifteen years old, the reason i bought it was because i had read about it in the woman’s magazine Margriet. It did some articles on environmental pollution and the world going down the drain. My motives being a mixture of interest in the possibilities of computer modeling and worry about the environment (mainly show more the first though, although my über-ich sticks to the second).
Now I reread it. So, is this a readable book? It is actually. It is well written and well composed; rhetoric means well used to make sure that its message hits the fan.
----------------------- Reporting on world dynamics ----------------------------------------------------
--> Exponential growth, feed-back loops and time delays
It begins by explaining the nature of exponential growth. The story of the water lily in a pond that doubles itself every day is central to this. After some time the pond is filled half by the water lily, how long will it be before it covers the whole of the pond?
Four variables like the world-population and industrial production, it is important to see that exponential growth is caused by positive feedback loops in the system. Population growth causes more population growth and industrial growth likewise. They also positively influence each other.
Another important aspect is time delay in the system. E.g. DDT put in the environment yesterday, will only show up in high levels in our food tomorrow, since it has to travel along the whole of the food chain first.
Uncontrolled growth breeds disaster.
Dennis Meadows and his team construct a ‘dynamic systems’ world model that takes five main variables as its focus: production, population, food, non renewable resources and pollution. In fact production is specified in industrial, services and agricultural production and available land for agriculture is an important variable too.
As input for the model they use real-life data and reasonably optimistic estimates to create a ‘standard run’ to see what happens to the variables for the period 1900 – 2100 under the assumption that no changes in policy are made.
The result is shown in diagram 35 of the book.
As non renewable resources are consumed, more investments are needed to exploit them. So less can be invested in future growth. At some point less can be invested than is needed because of deprecation. The system then collapses.
Now this needs some imagination: when industrial investments can no longer be supported, all that’s dependent on it will quickly melt into thin air. After the worst wars are fought, we will be living in wooden shacks again (if there is wood still).
--> Technology is not the answer
After this rather dramatic set-up there follows a section on possible ‘technological’ solutions for this outcome, using the model for ‘what-if’ scenario’s. What if resources are four times as big as the most optimistic predictions, industry gets cleaner and machines more durable, recycling is used? What if there’s a dramatic increase in the productivity of agriculture?
The model runs show that this all leads to basically the same diagrams as in figure 35; it’s the structure of the feed-back loops in the system that is more important than exact figure’s about available resources etc.
So we have to change are values and goals, and stop growing
Now it is time for the grand finale. If in the end technology cannot help us, we have to change ourselves, our values and goals. We have to be prepared to set controls on industrial- and population growth. In fact the growth has to be zero. Putting this in the model shows that it is (only) then that the world system will be in a sustainable situation. The diagram shows ‘flatliners’ for most variables, whereas the resources are only gradually diminishing.
--> And don’t wait too long please
So, only when industrial- and population growth will be zero, disasters like figure 35 won’t happen in the 21st century. But not only that, a further analysis shows that when the worlds waits too long to take these measures, the disasters will take place anyway. In fact, taking them in the year 2000 will already be too late!
• One of the main reasons this will happen is because of time delays; the population will keep growing for about thirty years after installment of the measures. Even having perfect birth control where no one is allowed to have more than two children. In this case, in the end there will be a death for every birth and the population will be stabilized. In the period before that a lot of children get born that will live longer. See also the Demographic Transition Model, which is not specifically about sudden birth control measures however.
--------------- Objective science to effective policies -------------------------------
If ever science was used to get a moral lesson home, it’s here. After all, the main ‘scientific’ message – there’s no way finite systems can support limitless growth – is almost a tautology. This leaves the ‘moral’ message – so stop growing – with some firm footage. And if we add if you don’t want to die, it’s just a matter of enlightened self-interest to do so.
No matter how simple this message, it is far from clear how to get there. The report – which includes a presentation and afterword by members of the Club of Rome itself, does not even begin to suggest this in any concrete way. It just states that we need fundamentally different philosophies for our lives. It also states that customary government systems are failing when confronted with such complex situations.
And the world itself? It would not be to cynical to say that it plunged headway in an orgasmic feast of growth and consumerism by opting for neoliberal economic politics, giving free way to all the forces of darkness that Limits to Growth identifies, not only in its practice but all the more in its ideology. The human being a rational animal? It’s just one more count on the dialectics of Enlightenment.
But to be somewhat less cynical; the report warns against just going after the negative feed-backs. Just fighting pollution, malnutrition and building longer lasting machines, will not get us anywhere in the end as long as industry and population are allowed to grow (exponentially). With all the ‘green’ parties, all effort put in climate conferences and cutting back on environmental pollution, we have just done the less half of what the report told us to do. The most central tenets of the report where disregarded: industry and population growing like never before.
So, do you keep your empty batteries in an old sock? show less
And again, fifteen years old, the reason i bought it was because i had read about it in the woman’s magazine Margriet. It did some articles on environmental pollution and the world going down the drain. My motives being a mixture of interest in the possibilities of computer modeling and worry about the environment (mainly show more the first though, although my über-ich sticks to the second).
Now I reread it. So, is this a readable book? It is actually. It is well written and well composed; rhetoric means well used to make sure that its message hits the fan.
----------------------- Reporting on world dynamics ----------------------------------------------------
--> Exponential growth, feed-back loops and time delays
It begins by explaining the nature of exponential growth. The story of the water lily in a pond that doubles itself every day is central to this. After some time the pond is filled half by the water lily, how long will it be before it covers the whole of the pond?
Four variables like the world-population and industrial production, it is important to see that exponential growth is caused by positive feedback loops in the system. Population growth causes more population growth and industrial growth likewise. They also positively influence each other.
Another important aspect is time delay in the system. E.g. DDT put in the environment yesterday, will only show up in high levels in our food tomorrow, since it has to travel along the whole of the food chain first.
Uncontrolled growth breeds disaster.
Dennis Meadows and his team construct a ‘dynamic systems’ world model that takes five main variables as its focus: production, population, food, non renewable resources and pollution. In fact production is specified in industrial, services and agricultural production and available land for agriculture is an important variable too.
As input for the model they use real-life data and reasonably optimistic estimates to create a ‘standard run’ to see what happens to the variables for the period 1900 – 2100 under the assumption that no changes in policy are made.
The result is shown in diagram 35 of the book.
As non renewable resources are consumed, more investments are needed to exploit them. So less can be invested in future growth. At some point less can be invested than is needed because of deprecation. The system then collapses.
Now this needs some imagination: when industrial investments can no longer be supported, all that’s dependent on it will quickly melt into thin air. After the worst wars are fought, we will be living in wooden shacks again (if there is wood still).
--> Technology is not the answer
After this rather dramatic set-up there follows a section on possible ‘technological’ solutions for this outcome, using the model for ‘what-if’ scenario’s. What if resources are four times as big as the most optimistic predictions, industry gets cleaner and machines more durable, recycling is used? What if there’s a dramatic increase in the productivity of agriculture?
The model runs show that this all leads to basically the same diagrams as in figure 35; it’s the structure of the feed-back loops in the system that is more important than exact figure’s about available resources etc.
So we have to change are values and goals, and stop growing
Now it is time for the grand finale. If in the end technology cannot help us, we have to change ourselves, our values and goals. We have to be prepared to set controls on industrial- and population growth. In fact the growth has to be zero. Putting this in the model shows that it is (only) then that the world system will be in a sustainable situation. The diagram shows ‘flatliners’ for most variables, whereas the resources are only gradually diminishing.
--> And don’t wait too long please
So, only when industrial- and population growth will be zero, disasters like figure 35 won’t happen in the 21st century. But not only that, a further analysis shows that when the worlds waits too long to take these measures, the disasters will take place anyway. In fact, taking them in the year 2000 will already be too late!
• One of the main reasons this will happen is because of time delays; the population will keep growing for about thirty years after installment of the measures. Even having perfect birth control where no one is allowed to have more than two children. In this case, in the end there will be a death for every birth and the population will be stabilized. In the period before that a lot of children get born that will live longer. See also the Demographic Transition Model, which is not specifically about sudden birth control measures however.
--------------- Objective science to effective policies -------------------------------
If ever science was used to get a moral lesson home, it’s here. After all, the main ‘scientific’ message – there’s no way finite systems can support limitless growth – is almost a tautology. This leaves the ‘moral’ message – so stop growing – with some firm footage. And if we add if you don’t want to die, it’s just a matter of enlightened self-interest to do so.
No matter how simple this message, it is far from clear how to get there. The report – which includes a presentation and afterword by members of the Club of Rome itself, does not even begin to suggest this in any concrete way. It just states that we need fundamentally different philosophies for our lives. It also states that customary government systems are failing when confronted with such complex situations.
And the world itself? It would not be to cynical to say that it plunged headway in an orgasmic feast of growth and consumerism by opting for neoliberal economic politics, giving free way to all the forces of darkness that Limits to Growth identifies, not only in its practice but all the more in its ideology. The human being a rational animal? It’s just one more count on the dialectics of Enlightenment.
But to be somewhat less cynical; the report warns against just going after the negative feed-backs. Just fighting pollution, malnutrition and building longer lasting machines, will not get us anywhere in the end as long as industry and population are allowed to grow (exponentially). With all the ‘green’ parties, all effort put in climate conferences and cutting back on environmental pollution, we have just done the less half of what the report told us to do. The most central tenets of the report where disregarded: industry and population growing like never before.
So, do you keep your empty batteries in an old sock? show less
A scholarly, technical treatise on the problems facing the world in the future. The authors wisely place their predictions about 100 years in the future, avoiding the pitfalls that faced Paul Ehrlich when some of his predictions failed to materialize within the time frame he had predicted. Most lay readers will be lost in the technical language, but there is a great deal of good information that can be used productively, though much of it is out of date now, and needs to be updated.
A compelling account with strong supporting evidence and excellent graphics.
A life-changing book.
A must read for those who are concerned about what we're leaving for future gens.
The first text in the series appeared as "Limits to growth" in 1972; then the revised edition appeared as "Beyond the limits" in 1992; the current edition of 2004 is a 30-year update.
Contents: Overshoot; The driving force - exponential growth; The limits - sources and sinks; World 3 - the dynamics of growth in a finite world; Back from beyond the limits - the ozone story; Technology, markets and overshoot; Transitions to a sustainable system; Tools for the transition to sustainability; Apendices.
Contents: Overshoot; The driving force - exponential growth; The limits - sources and sinks; World 3 - the dynamics of growth in a finite world; Back from beyond the limits - the ozone story; Technology, markets and overshoot; Transitions to a sustainable system; Tools for the transition to sustainability; Apendices.
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Trained as a biophysicist, American scientist Donella H. Meadows earned a Ph.D. from Harvard University. Early in her career, Meadows was a member of a joint Harvard-MIT research group that developed a computer simulation model clarifying relationships between growth and finite resources on the earth. Using this model, the Club of Rome sponsored show more extensive research that resulted in the best-selling book, "The Limits to Growth" (1972), co-authored by Meadows and others. Attention was focused on a doomsday prognosis if growth continued unchecked. Meadows and her associates, however, presented options for achieving a sustainable society if there were a movement away from dependence on growth, equity in wealth, and if technologies were used to enhance efficiency of natural-resource use. "Toward Global Equilibrium" (1973) and "Dynamics of Growth in a Finite World" (1974) are companion technical volumes to "The Limits to Growth." They present reports on the simulation models, examinations of economic, political, and ethical implications of the findings, and a detailed description of the computer model, World3. In addition to her research sponsored by the Club of Rome, Meadows, as one of the editors of "Groping in the Dark" (1982), fully articulates that basic human needs can be met in the future if social and political structures, as well as values, do not hinder efforts for sustainability and equity. Meadows states that equity, rather than individual and national-wealth aggrandizement, is increasingly recognized as a major factor in planetary survival. Twenty years after "The Limits to Growth," Meadows and others in "Beyond the Limits" (1992) find that some options for a sustainable future have narrowed. However, they claim that new technologies can, if employed wisely, contribute to sustainability. The book emphasizes social-policy options rather than models. After working for two years on the Club of Rome research project, Meadows became a member of the faculty at Dartmouth College where she was systems analyst and adjunct professor in the Environmental Studies Program. Meadows has a lifestyle that reflects her views about sustaining finite resources and valuing equity rather than personal economic gain. She has lived in a commune, studied Zen Buddhism, and believed that people today are ultimately responsible for a future that holds "unspeakable horrors or undreamed-of wonders." She died in 2001 from a bacterial infection. Her titles include Limits to Growth-The 30 year Update, The Electronic Oracle: Computer Models and Social Decisions and Thinking in Systems - A Primer. 30 show less
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- Canonical title
- The Limits to Growth: A Report for the Club of Rome's Project on the Predicament of Mankind
- Original title
- The limits to growth: A report for the Club of Rome project on the predictment of mankind
- Original publication date
- 1972
- Dedication
- To Dr. Aurelio Peccei, whose profound concern for humanity has inspired us and many others to think about the world's long-tern problems.
- First words
- In April 1968, a group of thirty individuals from ten countries - scientists, educators, economists, humanists, industrialists, and national and international civil servants - gathered in the Accademia dei Lincei in Rome.
... (show all)
Foreword.
The problems U Thant mentions - the arms race, environmental deterioration, the population explosion, and economic stagnation - are often cited as the central, long-term problems of modern man.
Introduction.
All five elements basic to the study reported here - population, food production, industrialization, pollution, and the consumption of nonrenewable natural resources - are increasing.
Chapter I. The nature of expone... (show all)ntial growth. - Last words
- (Click to show. Warning: May contain spoilers.)The crux of the matter is not only whether the human species will survive, but even more whether it can survive without falling into a state of worthless existence.
- Original language
- English
- Disambiguation notice
- Please do not combine with The limits to growth : the 30 year update by the same authors (2004), or ... (show all)711809" rel="nofollow" target="_new">The limits to growth revisited by Ugo Bardi (2011). See also the book's Wikipedia page.
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