2012 Booker Prize Shadow Jury

This year's Booker Prize will be announced on October 16th, as you know. I loved Jill's (mrstreme) idea of a Shadow Jury for the Orange Prize earlier this year, which consisted of anyone who had read all six shortlisted novels, and I decided to shamelessly copy her idea here.

Anyone who has read all of the shortlisted novels for this year's Booker Prize is invited to rank the books in order here. Please submit your ranking by no later than 1200 hours Eastern Standard Time in the US (1700 hours GMT) on October 16th (and preferably as soon as you're done with the shortlist), so that I can count the votes and announce our winning books before the actual award announcement that evening.

Several of us, I believe, have struggled with Umbrella, and I'm not sure how many of us will finish it by the 16th. So, anyone who has at least attempted all six books, and finished at least four of them, will be eligible to vote. I'll also create a thread for everyone to rank the shortlisted books they have read, so that everyone who has read at least one book can rank their books.

I've completed five of the six shortlisted books, and read 50 pages of Umbrella. I intend to give it another go later this week, and hopefully finish it by the 16th. For the moment, here is my rank list:

1. The Garden of Evening Mists by Tan Twan Eng
2. Bring Up the Bodies by Hilary Mantel
3. The Lighthouse by Alison Moore
4. Narcopolis by Jeet Thayil
5. Swimming Home by Deborah Levy
*6. Umbrella by Will Self (unfinished)

Having completed 5 of the 6 and gotten about a third of the way through Umbrella, I think I would rank them this way:

1. The Lighthouse
2. The Garden of Evening Mists
3. Bring Up the Bodies
4. Umbrella
5. Narcopolis
6. Swimming Home

Honestly though, the top 4 are all worthy of the win, IMO.

This is not my personal ranking (that's in the other thread), it's my ranking if I were in the Booker jury. I finished 5 shortlisted books and am still fighting my way through Umbrella of which I can't read more than 10-30 pages a day.

1. The Garden of Evening Mists
2. Umbrella*
3. The Lighthouse
4. Narcopolis
5. Swimming Home
6. Bring Up the Bodies**

* Umbrella can't win because we want readers to buy our winner, read it and recommend it to their friends so they'll buy it as well. It's brilliant, but it would end up unread on the shelves of most of the 'first wave' buyers.

**ButB has never really been in the competition. We can't give Mantel a 2nd BP for her sequel. What if the 3rd book is even better and is published in a year when all the other candidates are much weaker? We'd be forced to give her a 3rd BP for her Cromwell series. And ButB has been a great success already anyway, so no need to push it. Shortlisting it was all the acknowledgement we could give her.

***
So my guess now is that Evening Mists will win because it has all the elements that will make it a success on the book market. Plus the last winner novel not set in the UK was in 2008 (The White Tiger) and Malay(si)a has not much been dealt with in the past. For me personally it felt a bit flat and not as exceptional as some others on the list, but it is a very well written, well-balanced book and I liked it more than some of the previous winners I read.

It would be a courageous decision if they gave the prize to The Lighthouse or Umbrella, I don't see that happen.

Any of the remaining 2 would be a big surprise for me.

Deern - a very interesting analysis. I agree re BUTB which really cannot win for reasons you state. If they are looking for readability and popular appeal, then maybe the Evening Mist book would win based on everyone's reaction. Personally I would like 'the lighthouse' to win because I found her spare terse writing style very appealing.

All these books are so completely different that there must be some political or stylistic strategy involved in the decision?

Tomorrow is the award ceremony; based on past years, the winner will be announced at roughly 9-10 pm British Summer Time (BST), or 4-5 pm Eastern Standard Time (EST) in the US. Thanks to Brenda and Nathalie for casting their votes; if anyone else wants to participate, please cast your vote by 1200 EST (1700 BST) so that I can announce the Shadow Jury winner ahead of the official announcement. Nathalie and Brenda, feel free to alter your rank order between now and then.

Unfortunately I won't finish Umbrella by tomorrow. I suspect that it is the most accomplished novel on the shortlist, and I think it has the best chance to win the Booker Prize from the current jury. From what I've read, I'd rank it no lower than third, but I can't rank it higher than my top two picks without completing it. So, here is my final rank order:

1. The Garden of Evening Mists
2. Bring Up the Bodies
3. Umbrella
4. The Lighthouse
5. Narcopolis
6. Swimming Home

I can easily envision a hung jury, with each of the top three books on my list getting one or two votes from each member on a first ballot. IMO The Garden of Evening Mists is the most enjoyable read of the books on the shortlist, Bring Up the Bodies is the best written book but is hampered by Wolf Hall's previous win, and Umbrella, as I said, is likely the most accomplished novel.

Darryl, I agree with you regarding Umbrella. I am almost finished and can safely say it would move to the top of my list. But, again, I think any of the top four would be a good choice!

1. Umbrella
2. The Lighthouse
3. The Garden of Evening Mists
4. Bring Up the Bodies
5. Narcopolis
6. Swimming Home

I am also almost through Umbrella now, and I agree with Darryl's evaluation of it, it's the most accomplished novel. For me personally ButB was the most enjoyable read, but it doesn't reach Wolf Hall. I am really glad they gave her the BP for that book, it was such a deserved win!

There were some subjects in Evening Mists which I'd like to have seen analysed more thoroughly, but maybe this is just the thing. Wasn't the garden all about 'borrowed ideas'? The book felt the same - so many interesting subject you had already seen somewhere else, carefully placed to give a harmonious impression. But nevertheless borrowed, not the original, and therefore not going into the depth of things.

I decided to be courageous also as an imaginary Booker jury member and to change my list as follows:

1. Umbrella
2. The Garden of Evening Mists
3. The Lighthouse
4. Narcopolis
5. Swimming Home
-------
6. Bring Up the Bodies

Barring any additional hidden votes, the Shadow Jury selects Umbrella as the winner of this year's Booker Prize!