First Foreign Trip: What Fresh Hell?

Ladies before gentlemen ascending stairs, entering doors... (See photo.)
Come to think of it this bit of etiquette once had me "jammed" in a doorway with a Soviet lab director. ;-)
No problem though--Melania knows her place! (ETA: The Saudis (and Vatican?) will like that.)

Opening First Foreign Trip, Donald Trump Tries to Leave Crisis Behind
PETER BAKER | MAY 19, 2017

...“The chief function of a foreign trip for a scandal-ridden chief executive is to make him feel better,” said Evan Thomas, a Nixon biographer.

...During a stop in Gaza, Dennis Ross, a Middle East adviser, noticed the president (Clinton) scribbling on his yellow legal pad, “Focus on your job. Focus on your job.”

While at the King David Hotel in Jerusalem the next morning preparing for a meeting with the Israeli prime minister — then, as now, Benjamin Netanyahu — an aide walked in to let Mr. Clinton know that a key House Republican had decided to vote against him, giving opponents enough votes to impeach him...

...“The idea that when the president is overseas everybody puts their guns down and waits till he gets back home is long gone,” Mr. Lockhart said.

“That tradition probably died during our time, Clinton’s time, and was perpetrated by the Republicans,” he added. “They decided that they weren’t going to let up on him. And that tradition continued. Democrats didn’t care when Bush was overseas. You don’t even have the political cease-fire that had been traditionally observed.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/19/us/politics/trump-trip-crisis.html

And, related to this, foreign dignitaries are advising one another to "be nice" to Trump during their meetings.

http://www.rawstory.com/2017/05/trump-foreign-trip-leaders-told-to-praise-trump/

Could be tough (being nice). Trump has said despicable things about Muslims, released Israeli secrets, cut off refugees & migrants and aid in time of starvation, questioned the relevance of NATO. Not that "nice" right now back home, though.

Israeli Intelligence Furious Over Trump’s Loose Lips
As the U.S. president heads to Israel for a show of unity, the country’s spies are alarmed at his disclosures to the Russians.
Kavitha Surana, Dan De Luce, Robbie Gramer | May 19, 2017

Just days before President Donald Trump’s arrival in Tel Aviv, Israeli intelligence officials were shouting at their American counterparts in meetings, furious over news that the U.S. commander in chief may have compromised a vital source of information on the Islamic State and possibly Iran, according to a U.S. defense official in military planning.

“To them, it’s horrifying,” the official, who attended the meetings, told Foreign Policy. “Their first question was: ‘What is going on? What is this?’”

...“To the Israelis, ISIS is not that big of a concern,” the defense official said, using an alternate acronym for the Islamic State. “We have a partner that has done us a favor. They went out of their way to support us in a campaign against ISIS, that they have no real skin in.”

...The revelation that sensitive information may have been passed to Russia, a partner to Iran, was particularly concerning. Israel has become increasingly anxious about Russia’s military cooperation with Iran in support of the Syrian regime and its growing cyberwarfare capabilities.

In Israel, there is fear the compromise of intelligence could damage the country’s interests and even jeopardize lives, the official said.

If the source was lost, it also could affect a U.S.-led military operation to take back Raqqa from the Islamic State with American-backed Syrian Kurdish and Arab forces, he said.

...The value of the intelligence is virtually a holy grail for spy services, experts said. Insights into the workings of a terrorist group’s inner circle are coveted and “quite rare,” said Bruce Hoffman, a professor at Georgetown University who has advised the U.S. government on counterterrorism. “It’s all solid gold. It doesn’t get much better than that.”

While the U.S.-Israel alliance will survive the episode intact, some former U.S. and Israeli officials worry that it could have a lasting effect on intelligence sharing while Trump remains in office.

“What Trump did is liable to cause heavy damage to Israel’s security, as well as the source, and U.S. security,’’ Danny Yatom, a former chief of Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service, told a Tel Aviv radio station. “Especially if this information reaches our good friends, the Iranians.”...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/05/19/israeli-intelligence-furious-over-trumps-loo...

ETA_______________________________________

‘People Here Think Trump Is a Laughingstock’
On the president’s ill-timed world tour.
Susan B. Glasser | May 19, 2017

“Chaos.”
“Circus.”
“Laughingstock.”

Those were just a few of the comments I heard in Berlin this week from senior European officials trying to make sense of the meltdown in Washington at just the moment when a politically imploding President Trump embarks on what he called “my big foreign trip” in this morning’s kickoff tweet...

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/05/19/trump-middle-east-trip-saudi-a...

Wow. That was quite an orb.
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/06/saudi-arabia-uae-egypt-bahrain-cut-ties-qa...

As usual, "b" has a useful take (if you're willing to tolerate his contentious and figurative characterizations).
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/the-gcc-states-led-by-saudi-arabia-will-col...
I tend to agree with the thrust: the Saudis seem to be doubling down on overreach. I'm curious who in the royal family is spearheading this.

As the orb turns...

Col. Wilkerson has an interesting take.
http://therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=31&a...

And "b" has an update which fills in a lot of useful background on the story (though the sharp-eyed will spot a few highly tendentious statements).
http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/the-saudis-demand-total-surrender-but-qatar...

Among other things, we're about to see a bunch of Turkish troops in Qatar.

About the unrest in the Arab states over Qatar, think this might have precipitated the entire affair?:

"Qatar paid up to $1bn to release members of its royal family who were kidnapped in Iraq while on a hunting trip, according to people involved in the hostage deal — one of the triggers behind Arab states’ dramatic decision to cut ties with the government in Doha.....By their telling, Qatar paid off two of the most frequently blacklisted forces of the Middle East in one fell swoop: an al-Qaeda affiliate fighting in Syria and Iranian security officials. "

https://www.ft.com/content/dd033082-49e9-11e7-a3f4-c742b9791d43

>6 DugsBooks: Maybe, as one of the interviewees said, "the straw that broke the camel's back."
The most interesting tidbit in that FT piece concerns the linking of the Qatari royal ransom with the Fua-Kefraya versus Zabadani-Madaya exchange. What the FT piece doesn't mention is how that exchange turned out: 80 children blown to bits after being lured into bomb radius by a guy distributing snacks.

See:
https://www.librarything.com/topic/254728#6016484
and
https://www.librarything.com/topic/254728#6024552

I speculated at the time that this was a strategic move on al-Qaeda's part, an attempt to freeze the situation in Idlib. In light of the above, perhaps other concerns played a role. Might be worth looking into. In retrospect I recall reading or hearing something about the broader connection at the time, but only in passing; didn't stick in my mind.

>7 davidgn: darn, I hit a paywall when I tried to go back to the article I posted in 6. I have no idea what the "Fua-Kefraya versus Zabadani-Madaya exchange" is and a quick glance through your links did not help me much {my fault most likely not the articles}. But there is no place in Hell low and hot enough for the ass who killed those kids.

My reaction was that some effete jerks with more money than sense screwed up and funded baby killing extremists in their area. Also the whole affair in my vastly under informed opinion is that several royal families are protecting their own sweet asses ensconced in monarchies from someone promoting a different type of government - understanding that "someone" may have bug eyed crazy psychotic factions.

>8 DugsBooks: I haven't read these pieces yet (probably tomorrow), but they look like they cover at least a good portion of the basic facts.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/14/besieged-syria-towns-evacuated-as-...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/apr/19/qatari-jet-sits-on-tarmac-in-baghd...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/21/world/middleeast/big-ransom-and-syria-deals-w...

Col. Lang's penultimate post to this version of his blog (apparently the comments section has proven unmanageable) updates us on the formation of the Saudi-UAE-Egypt-Bahrain-Mauritania-Cheetolini-and-Israel axis vs. the Qatar-Turkey-Iran-Pentagon-and-basically-everybody-else axis.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/06/httpwwwweeklystandard...

And here's Alastair Crooke (who reminded me to include Israel above):

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/06/09/trumps-blunders-fuel-mideast-conflicts/

Aaaahahahahahahaha!!!

Donald Trump's state visit to Britain put on hold

The US president said he did not want to come if there were large-scale protests and his remarks in effect put the visit on hold for some time.

Der Grabbinführer wants adoring masses at his appearances... I guess Saudia, Serbia and Russia is about it for pleasant foreign-trippin'.

>12 LolaWalser: He's a coward.

>13 theoria:

But he tweets like a big boy.

The Saudi-Qatari spat keeps on yielding dividends.

http://www.moonofalabama.org/2017/06/qatar-saudi-catfight-unveils-western-terror...

Some damaging allegations of Western media collusion with bona fide al-Qaeda types for its Syria coverage, but that's not particularly groundbreaking for those who have been paying attention. Perhaps the most valuable tidbit is this pointer to a cheat sheet explaining which side of the Saudi/Qatari gulf (har) is bankrolling which think tanks.

https://bahrainwatch.org/blog/2017/06/12/qatar-gcc-think-tank-cheatsheet/

Here's fresh hell, in Yemen courtesy of our Arab ally UAE, with American forces reportedly participating but not present during abuse: "a secret network of prisons in southern Yemen where abuse is routine and torture extreme — including the “grill,” in which the victim is tied to a spit like a roast and spun in a circle of fire". UAE, as you remember, is one of the countries Donald supported in seeking to bring Qatar (and Al Jazeera) around to their approach to Middle East:

US interrogates detainees in Yemen prisons rife with torture
MAGGIE MICHAEL | June 22, 2017

...The AP documented at least 18 clandestine lockups across southern Yemen run by the United Arab Emirates or by Yemeni forces created and trained by the Gulf nation, drawing on accounts from former detainees, families of prisoners, civil rights lawyers and Yemeni military officials. All are either hidden or off limits to Yemen’s government, which has been getting Emirati help in its civil war with rebels over the last two years.

The secret prisons are inside military bases, ports, an airport, private villas and even a nightclub. Some detainees have been flown to an Emirati base across the Red Sea in Eritrea, according to Yemen Interior Minister Hussein Arab and others.

Several U.S. defense officials, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the topic, told AP that American forces do participate in interrogations of detainees at locations in Yemen, provide questions for others to ask, and receive transcripts of interrogations from Emirati allies. They said U.S. senior military leaders were aware of allegations of torture at the prisons in Yemen, looked into them, but were satisfied that there had not been any abuse when U.S. forces were present...

https://apnews.com/4925f7f0fa654853bd6f2f57174179fe/US-interrogates-detainees-in...

>16 margd: Worthwhile reporting, but at the same time, please remember we're in the middle of a PR war -- hence all the sudden interest in matters such as inhuman goings-on in Yemen, when nobody could be bothered to spare a thought before. Note that Qatar has until now been an integral partner in Saudi's little Yemen war. And lest the thread drift too far in a "Qatar good, Saudi/UAE bad" direction, I'll share this brass-tacks assessment from Col. Lang on June 8th.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/06/httpwwwweeklystandard...

Qatar is a strange little place. It is really a sandbar sticking out into the Gulf. Qatar possesses large gas reserves but does anyone think that desire to possess these reserves motivates Saudi Arabia? Qatar is the only Wahhabi country other than Saudi Arabia itself. It exists because imperial Britain wanted to hold a non-Saudi piece of Wahhabi dominated "soil" in the Gulf region. Qatar realizes the weakness of its position vis a vis Saudi Arabia. The emirate is in fact if not in appearance an absolute dictatorship. I was present at a meeting at the ruler's palace in Doha in which the then emir laughed and told the group I was with that if the West wanted democracy he would create things for them to look at. He would have a parliament. He would have a "free" press (Al-Jazeera?). He said that there had been a subversive conspiracy attempting a coup recently and that he had a number of the plotters in prison. What should I do with them he asked this group of millionaires and corporate representative. I do not wish to upset "The West" too much. The response from the leader of the group was that the prisoners should receive due process. The emir then changed the subject.

Existing in such a milieu, Qatar's rulers have sought to "fireproof" themselves against a future in which Saudi Arabia decides that the Qatari mini-state's existence is unnecessary.

1. Firstly, and perhaps most importantly they have given the US the use of land including the area of the former British air base at al-udeid and enough space to position USCENTCOM's forward headquarters in theater. These facilities are very important to the US. The air war in the ME is run from al-udeid air base, not the flying necessarily, but just about all the staff functions for command and control. DJT does not seem to grasp the importance of al-udeid to the US air war.

2. The "Al-Jazeera network" is a great irritant to the autocratic states of the Arab World. It has always been such and it has been bitched about to me by rich and otherwise powerful Arabs from its creation. It is clearly under the protection of the house al-thani (the rulers of this little country). As I have said, this princely house is not IMO in any way democratic. Al-Jazeera is part of the Potemkin Village of democracy that is presented to the West by the Qatari state, but that image is helpful to them.

3. Qatar maintains a certain ambiguity with regard to its relations with Iran. It has recently chosen to emphasize that ambiguity, probably IMO in response to DJT's acceptance of his role as the mukhtar of America.

And now, in demonstration of Sultan Erdogan's ambition to one day be thought Commander of the Faithful, the Turkish parliament has provided the legal basis for Turkey to intervene militarily and politically in settlement of the present difficulty involving Saudi Arabia, its Arab allies and mukhtar Trump on the one hand with Qatar and Turkey (possibly Iran?) on the other.

Can one doubt that Turkish support for the al-thani will achieve great influence in Qatar? If so, what will be Turkey's level of influence over US use of al-udeid AFB? Without the C&C facilities at that base we would essentially be out of business in the air war. And then there is Incirlik AFB ...

What on earth does DJT think he is doing by siding with SA against Qatar? pl

>17 davidgn: Thanks. Good reminder to keep perspective--and to remember that these countries have their own priorities, which may not align with ours--not that ours are always the best.

(I enjoy a Chinese news program on PBS with its stories on parts of the globe we hear little of. Occasionally, there will be a piece on, say, South China Sea, which reminds me to keep grain of salt at hand...)

Somehow I missed this when it came out, but here's Alastair Crooke on the underlying history and dynamics of the Saudi-Qatar spat. As usual with Crooke's pieces, reading it engenders a sense of having a clue about what's actually going on.

http://www.conflictsforum.org/2017/have-mbs-and-mbz-overreached-themselves/

As it happens, I'm listening to this Oil and Money panel discussion with the UK's Alastair Crooke, the US's Amb. Chas Freeman (at Watson), and Russia's Fyodor Lukyanov. It's from last November, but very highly recommended.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w20A1pVL6ek

To speak once again of Crooke: here's a piece out yesterday.

How Israeli/Saudi ‘Alliance’ Plays Trump
As novices to the world of Mideast intrigue, President Trump and son-in-law Jared Kushner are being led by Israel and Saudi Arabia into a dangerous confrontation with Iran, explains former British diplomat Alastair Crooke.

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/07/01/how-israelisaudi-alliance-plays-trump/

Very juicy information indeed. I won't spoil it.

Second trip: at least Putin was amused.

Putin: We didn't meddle, ask Trump.
Reporter: But WH hasn't released any info.
Putin laughs: We'll talk to the WH and tell them to fix that.

https://twitter.com/Neubadah/status/883713662187433984

Second trip:

Trump Has Picked America’s Enemies in Russia Over Its Friends in Europe
After his most recent trip abroad, the president deserves credit for consistency — but not much else.
Max Boot | July 9, 2017

...The best thing that can be said about his return is that at least this time he did voice support for Article V. So give this trip a D rather than the F he earned the first time around.

Why not a higher grade? Because President Trump can’t help being himself, wherever he is. His nutty behavior is bad enough at home; it’s even worse abroad when he is supposed to be representing not just his rabid base of “deplorables” but, rather, the whole country. That is something Trump simply does not know how to do.

...The final absurdity was Putin and Trump’s discussion of, as Trump tweeted, “forming an impenetrable Cyber Security unit so that election hacking, & many other negative things, will be guarded.”...

http://foreignpolicy.com/2017/07/09/trump-has-picked-americas-enemies-in-russia-...

The MbS/MbZ vs. al-Thani spat continues to produce interesting information.
After the most recent deadline passed without incident (cf. here, with the usual adjustments for "b"'s tendency to turn it up to 11), I would not be surprised if the Qataris sense weakness. Perhaps the desire to advantage of this is one factor underlying their latest counterattack via the Egyptian press.

http://turcopolier.typepad.com/sic_semper_tyrannis/2017/07/httpssouthfrontorgegy...

The Saudi and UAE "crownies" are AQ supporters ...

A leaked document in Qatar’s embassy and a letter to Qatari Foreign Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani on October 26, 2016, show Mohammed bin Salman and Mohammed bin Zayed’s support for certain key al-Qaeda members in the Arabian Peninsula,” Arabic language al-Badil newspaper wrote.

Based on the documents, US Treasury Undersecretary for Terrorism and Financial Intelligence said that the Saudi and Abu Dhabi crown princes have established continued contacts with two Yemeni nationals, namely Ali Abkar al-Hassan and Abdollah Faisal Ahdal, who are on the US blacklist of most wanted terrorists

southfront quoting al-badil newspaper
---------------

This is fun.

This information was contained in documents that have been in Qatari governments hands and which have now magically been revealed to al badil, an Egyotian newspaper with Qatari connections.

Guess what?

The Qatari government has struck back against the Saudi and GCC power play against it. Mukhtar Trump enthusiastically signed up to support Saudi Gulf hegemony in Riyadh. In so doing, he backed the long standing Saudi desire to totally dominate the Gulf. This is of a piece with several other Saudi "projects" (mashari') that have been underway for decades. One of the most notable has been the Saudi wish to establish Wahhabi Sunni control of Lebanon and Syria. Another is the downfall of Shia majority government in Iraq.

DJT's son in law and his Israeli "minders" persuaded the president to accept Saudi tutelage in the Gulf. The power play against Qatar was a direct consequence of that pledge of allegiance.

The claim that Qatar is a bigger supporter of AQ connected jihadi movements across the world than the rest of the GCC is ludicrous. pl

Also some more interesting observations from Colonel Lang in the comments, above all this one:

All I learned in life and continue to learn about the Gulfies supports the opinion that the documents are genuine. The Egyptian press is officially and thoroughly censored. Someone must have influenced Sisi to let this newspaper publish these documents. IMO a dissident group in the WH did this. They have tried to tell DJT that he has thrown in his lot with the major sponsors of the AQ jihadis. These princelings live in the ultimate bubble and have a massive over-estimate of themselves and their ability to manage ordinary people. They often make mistake. Look at the mess in Yemen. pl

and this one:

Trump does not understand the ME. There is a contest within the WH for his attention. It is between those who have actual knowledge that the "princelings" (the rich emirs in the Gulf) who are not really our friends and never have been and the US foreign policy establishment (the Borg)who want to think that the princelings can be a useful set of assets for US FP and that they can use them rather than be used. A third payer in this is the bloc of Zionist political activists (AIPAC, etc. who want the US to support a Saudi/Israeli rapprochement. pl

Crooke writes again today.

Trump and the New Mideast Paradox
President Trump got excited over a Saudi-Israeli scheme to combat Iran, but Trump’s cooperation with Russian President Putin on Syria goes in a profoundly different direction, as ex-British diplomat Alastair Crooke explains.

In the early 1920s, an ambitious young British official, Harry Philby, urged a Saudi leader (not then a king) to be bold: He could seize the leadership of the Arab world (using fired-up, Wahhabist forces), and become a true “king.” But first, it was absolutely essential he win British government support for his project; and secondly, the Saudi leader would need to change the image of his peripatetic, mounted marauders – the murderous Ikhwan. Abdul Aziz (in the West, often called Ibn Saud, the first king of Saudi Arabia) succeeded in both (though the latter, he simply had murdered by the British).

In 2016, an ambitious Gulf prince, Mohammad bin Zayed, urged a young Saudi (would-be king) to be bold: He could seize the leadership of the Sunni Arab world (using fired-up Sunni forces), and become the dominant power over the Arab world; but first, it was absolutely essential he win Israeli support for his ambition (as this would deliver U.S. consent); and secondly, he must change the image of Saudi Arabia from its Islamist identity, to one more tuned to the Western, financialized, global sphere. Mohammad bin Salman (MbS), a grandson of Abdul Aziz or Ibn Saud, may achieve neither. Why? Because none of the actors in this re-run of history are perhaps as strong as they may think they are. ...

https://consortiumnews.com/2017/07/10/trump-and-the-new-mideast-paradox/

ETA:
Want more evidence? In conjunction, please read this:
https://muftah.org/israels-artificial-island-initiative-resurfaced/
I wonder where the financing is planned to come from?

(For those unfamiliar with the outlet, as I was until recently: surely you at least know Quartz? https://qz.com/412537/revolutionizing-mid-east-coverage/ )

The Gulf Crisis Might Be Based on a Hoax

"The crisis may, as some analysts are suggesting, be evidence of an emerging form of soft warfare, involving cyberattacks, disinformation, trade policy, PR, and lobbying campaigns as tools of state power. But given that U.S. support has not been as forthright as expected and Qatar is still holding out, it’s not clear yet whether the Saudi-led bloc’s use of these tools has been effective."

>26 2wonderY: "b"'s reading of this strikes me as sound.

Can Washington Prevent The Death Of The Gulf States?

U.S. Secretary of State Tillerson is angry that Saudi Arabia and the UAE rejected his efforts to calm down their spat with Qatar. His revenge, and a threat of more serious measures, comes in the form of a WaPo "leak" - UAE orchestrated hacking of Qatari government sites, sparking regional upheaval, according to U.S. intelligence officials:

The United Arab Emirates orchestrated the hacking of Qatari government news and social media sites in order to post incendiary false quotes attributed to Qatar’s emir, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad al-Thani, in late May that sparked the ongoing upheaval between Qatar and its neighbors, according to U.S. intelligence officials.

Officials became aware last week that newly analyzed information gathered by U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed that on May 23, senior members of the UAE government discussed the plan and its implementation. The officials said it remains unclear whether the UAE carried out the hacks itself or contracted to have them done.

That the UAE and/or the Saudis were involved in the hack was pretty clear from the get go. They were the only ones who had a clear motive. Qatar already had specific evidence for the source of the hacking. Congressional anti-Russian sources ignored that and accused, as usual, Russia and Putin.

Tillerson's real message is not the hacking accusation. The hacks themselves are not relevant to the spat and to Tillerson's efforts to defuse it. The "leak" sets the UAE and Saudi leadership on notice that the U.S. has sources and methods to learn of their government's innermost discussions. The real threat to them is that other dirt could be released from the same source.

It is doubtful that this threat will change the minds of these rulers. They believe in their own invincibility. Ian Welsh describes the mindset in his prediction of The Death of Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

This is fairly standard: all dynasties go bad eventually because the kings-to-be grow up in wealth and power and think it’s the natural state of things: that they are brilliant and deserve it all, when it was handed them on a platter. Perhaps they are good at palace intrigue and think that extends beyond the palace.

It doesn’t.

Welsh comes to the same conclusion as I did when the recent GCC infighting broke out....

New disclosure: Trump met alone for hour with Putin and Putin's translator after a G-20 meal. WHY??

Trump, Putin had second, undisclosed talk at G-20
Max Greenwood and Jordan Fabian | 07/18/17

...That Trump was not joined in the conversation by his own translator is a breach of national security protocol, according to Ian Bremmer, president of the Eurasia Group, though one that the president likely would not know about...

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/342589-ian-bremmer-trump-and-putin-he...