Climate change issues, prevention, adaptation 3

Trump, Oil of Less Concern Than Climate Change for Top Companies
Rachel Morison | June 12, 2018

...The terms “climate” and “weather” combined were among the most frequently discussed topics among executives of Standard & Poor’s 500 companies, beating “Trump,” “the dollar,” “oil” and “recession” according to analysis of 10 years of earnings call transcripts by S&P Global Ratings.

“The effect of climate risk and severe weather events on corporate earnings is meaningful,” S&P said in the joint report with Hamilton, Bermuda-based Resilience Economics Ltd. “If left unmitigated, the financial impact could increase over time as climate change makes disruptive weather events more frequent and severe.”

The analysis shows that 15 percent of S&P 500 companies publicly disclosed an effect on earnings from weather events, with only 4 percent quantifying the effect. The average impact on earnings was 6 percent in financial year 2017.

More companies are expected to increase reporting on climate issues as management teams become more accountable for understanding the financial impact of weather events, S&P said.

“We may begin to see institutional investors build climate risk factors into their portfolio selection processes, thereby placing greater emphasis on climate when directing investments,” the ratings agency said.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-06-12/trump-oil-of-less-concern-tha...

National Post (conservative Cdn newspaper): "If that continues, we are in serious trouble."

Antarctic Ice Melt Has Tripled in Five Years
Olivia Rosane | Jun. 14, 2018

Ice melt in Antarctica has tripled in the last five years...Antarctica had lost 219 billion tonnes of ice a year (approximately 241.41 billion U.S. tons) between 2012 and 2017, contributing 0.6 millimeters (approximately 0.02 inches) to global sea level rise...Before 2012, ice loss held steady at 76 billion tonnes (approximately 83.78 billion U.S. tons) per year, for 0.2 millimeters (approximately 0.008 inches) of sea level rise.

"A three-fold increase now puts Antarctica in the frame as one of the largest contributors to sea-level rise," study co-leader and CPOM Director Professor Andrew Shepherd of Leeds University..."The last time we looked at the polar ice sheets, Greenland was the dominant contributor. That's no longer the case." ...

https://www.ecowatch.com/antarctica-ice-melt-2577996225.html
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Ocean waves following sea ice loss trigger Antarctic ice shelf collapse
University of Adelaide | June 14, 2018

Storm-driven ocean swells have triggered the catastrophic disintegration of Antarctic ice shelves in recent decades, according to new research published in Nature today.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2018/06/180614095245.htm
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Robert A. Massom, Theodore A. Scambos, Luke G. Bennetts, Phillip Reid, Vernon A. Squire, Sharon E. Stammerjohn. Antarctic ice shelf disintegration triggered by sea ice loss and ocean swell. Nature, 2018; DOI: 10.1038/s41586-018-0212-1 . https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0212-1

Abstract

Understanding the causes of recent catastrophic ice shelf disintegrations is a crucial step towards improving coupled models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet and predicting its future state and contribution to sea-level rise. An overlooked climate-related causal factor is regional sea ice loss. Here we show that for the disintegration events observed (the collapse of the Larsen A and B and Wilkins ice shelves), the increased seasonal absence of a protective sea ice buffer enabled increased flexure of vulnerable outer ice shelf margins by ocean swells that probably weakened them to the point of calving. This outer-margin calving triggered wider-scale disintegration of ice shelves compromised by multiple factors in preceding years, with key prerequisites being extensive flooding and outer-margin fracturing. Wave-induced flexure is particularly effective in outermost ice shelf regions thinned by bottom crevassing. Our analysis of satellite and ocean-wave data and modelling of combined ice shelf, sea ice and wave properties highlights the need for ice sheet models to account for sea ice and ocean waves.

Not just a loss for the environment, could be monetary loss for those who bought "futures" in C emissions. In Quebec and California, as well as in Ontario? Ontario voters were upset about steep increases in cost of electricity--the Liberals admittedly made some avoidable (dumb) mistakes that cost them. Quebec has abundant hydropower, so probably more secure in their cap and trade program.

Premier-Designate Doug Ford Announces an End to Ontario's Cap-and-Trade Carbon Tax (News Release)
Incoming government will use every power available to challenge federal government’s authority to impose a carbon tax on Ontario families, individuals and small businesses
June 15, 2018 10:40 A.M.

Premier-designate Doug Ford today announced that his cabinet's first act following the swearing-in of his government will be to cancel Ontario's current cap-and-trade scheme, and challenge the federal government's authority to impose a carbon tax on the people of Ontario.

...Ford also announced that Ontario would be serving notice of its withdrawal from the joint agreement linking Ontario, Quebec and California's cap-and-trade markets as well as the pro-carbon tax Western Climate Initiative. The Premier-designate confirmed that he has directed officials to immediately take steps to withdraw Ontario from future auctions for cap-and-trade credits. The government will provide clear rules for the orderly wind down of the cap-and-trade program.

Finally, Ford announced that he will be issuing specific directions to his incoming attorney general to use all available resources at the disposal of the government to challenge the federal government's authority to arbitrarily impose a carbon tax on Ontario families.

https://news.ontario.ca/opd/en/2018/06/premier-designate-doug-ford-announces-an-...
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...The decision to move quickly to fulfill this particular campaign pledge will likely create turmoil in the secondary market, where those that have bought credits to release pollution in the future will feel compelled to sell them at a discount since they now appear virtually worthless.

The next auction for emission allowances was expected in August.

Still falsely calling the market mechanism a "carbon tax," Ford said Ontario would be serving notice of its withdrawal from the joined system and also directing his incoming attorney general to challenge the federal carbon pricing plan.

Ontario has held seven auctions since March 2017, raising almost $3 billion in revenues the previous Liberal government directed into other emission-reducing initiatives such as home retrofits and electric vehicle subsidies...

https://www.nationalobserver.com/2018/06/15/news/ontarios-doug-ford-says-provinc...

World wakes up to climate migration
Harjeet Singh , 06.06.18

Millions of people worldwide are being displaced by natural disasters triggered partially by climate change, and the international community is finally taking steps to mitigate the suffering

This year is set to be an important milestone in the arduous journey of climate migrants. The global community is now beginning to fathom the challenges of people displaced by events such as floods, storms and sea level rise that are partly fuelled by climate change.

Natural disasters forced over 18 million people out of their homes in 135 countries just last year, according to a new global report* released by Geneva-based Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC). It highlights that weather-related hazards triggered the vast majority of the displacement, with floods and storms accounting for more than 80% of the incidents. China, the Philippines, Cuba and the US were the worst affected.

“Climate change is becoming a critical driver of displacement risk across the world, in combination with rapid and badly managed urbanisation, and increasing levels of inequality and persistent poverty,” Bina Desai, Head of Policy and Research at IDMC told indiaclimatedialogue.net.

...All eyes are now on the December climate summit in Poland, with a few rounds of talks in between, when both the UN processes involving almost 200 countries conclude, collectively aiming to protect the safety, dignity, human rights and fundamental freedoms of all migrants.

“Migration remains the only option left for people who permanently lose home and income to climate change impacts,” said Vashist. “The issue requires serious attention from our governments and the global community alike.”

https://indiaclimatedialogue.net/2018/06/06/world-wakes-up-to-tackle-climate-mig...

*http://www.internal-displacement.org/global-report/grid2018/

The number of species losing half their range by year 2100 doubles from 1.5 to 2C of warming.

R. Warren et al. The projected effect on insects, vertebrates, and plants of limiting global warming to 1.5°C rather than 2°C. Science 18 May 2018:
Vol. 360, Issue 6390, pp. 791-795. DOI: 10.1126/science.aar3646. http://science.sciencemag.org/content/360/6390/791

Insects are the most diverse group of animals on Earth and are ubiquitous in terrestrial food webs. We have little information about their fate in a changing climate; data are scant for insects compared with other groups of organisms. Warren et al. performed a global-scale analysis of the effects of climate change on insect distribution (see the Perspective by Midgley). For vertebrates and plants, the number of species losing more than half their geographic range by 2100 is halved when warming is limited to 1.5°C, compared with projected losses at 2°C. But for insects, the number is reduced by two-thirds.

Abstract

In the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, the United Nations is pursuing efforts to limit global warming to 1.5°C, whereas earlier aspirations focused on a 2°C limit. With current pledges, corresponding to ~3.2°C warming, climatically determined geographic range losses of >50 margd:% are projected in ~49% of insects, 44% of plants, and 26% of vertebrates. At 2°C, this falls to 18% of insects, 16% of plants, and 8% of vertebrates and at 1.5°C, to 6% of insects, 8% of plants, and 4% of vertebrates. When warming is limited to 1.5°C as compared with 2°C, numbers of species projected to lose >50 margd:% of their range are reduced by ~66% in insects and by ~50% in plants and vertebrates.

2, contd. Glaciers not only tie up water by freezing it, their gravitational mass pulls water from far-off shores!

After Decades of Losing Ice, Antarctica Is Now Hemorrhaging It
Global warming has already cost the continent 2.7 trillion tons of mass.
Robinson Meyer | Jun 13, 2018

...The study contains two particular pieces of ominous news—especially for Americans. First, it finds that two glaciers in western Antarctica, named Thwaites and Pine Island, are losing mass at a particularly fast clip. Recent research has suggested that these glaciers may be subject to a feedback loop called “marine ice-cliff instability,” in which huge walls of ocean-facing ice buckle under their own weight and tumble into the sea. It’s not yet clear whether marine ice-cliff instability will happen at these two glaciers, but if it does kick in, then Thwaites and Pine Island would begin rapidly disintegrating, catastrophically raising global sea levels. Under that scenario, the two glaciers could increase global sea level by more than four and a half feet by 2100, inundating the homes of more than 150 million Americans.

...one of the stranger mechanisms in ice physics. Glaciers, it turns out, don’t just alleviate sea-level rise by freezing water and keeping it out of the ocean. Their gravity fields are strong enough that they actually attract ocean water from elsewhere on the planet. The farther you go from a certain patch of glacier, the greater the gravitational effects—and West Antartica is very far from the United States. So Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers essentially swaddle themselves with water that would otherwise slosh against the beaches of the East Coast.

But if West Antarctica’s ice melts, and it loses mass, then its gravitational field will also lose its protective power. And North America will suffer the consequences. For example, for every bit of West Antarctic ice that tumbles into the sea, sea levels in Boston will bear an additional sort of gravity tax of 25 percent.

“For every centimeter of sea-level rise from West Antarctica, Boston feels one and a quarter centimeters. And that extends down the East Coast,” said DeConto...

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2018/06/after-decades-of-ice-loss-an...

Deadly Tensions Rise as India’s Water Supply Runs Dangerously Low
Maria Abi-Habib and Hari Kumar | June 17, 2018

...A government report released on Thursday said that India was experiencing the worst water crisis in its history, threatening millions of lives and livelihoods. Some 600 million Indians, about half the population, face high to extreme water scarcity conditions, with about 200,000 dying every year from inadequate access to safe water, according to the report. By 2030, it said, the country’s demand for water is likely to be twice the available supply.

...Shimla (northern tourist destination in summer) is not the only Indian city whose water supplies are under increasing pressure. Last year was the country’s fourth hottest since record-keeping began in 1901, with rainfall down by nearly 6 percent from 2016, according to the Indian Ministry of Earth Sciences.

And many of the country’s cities have outdated water distribution systems, said Rajendra Singh, founder and chairman of Tarun Bharat Sangh, a conservation group. India has also fallen short on conservation measures like capturing rainfall and snowmelt, he said.

...Municipal officials divided (Shimla) into three zones in late May, distributing water to them on a rotating basis so that none would go without for more than two days.

...New Delhi’s chronically water-deprived neighborhood of Wazirpur, a father and son died after a scuffle broke out among people waiting in line for a tanker...Wazirpur had run out of water in January — earlier in the season than usual...in the rare instances when tap water flows, it is dirty and undrinkable...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/17/world/asia/shimla-india-drought-water.html

Climate Change May Already Be Hitting the Housing Market
Christopher Flavelle and Allison McCartney | June 18, 2018

...Even as President Donald Trump downplays the importance of climate change, there are signs that Americans may be taking it more seriously—at least when it comes to buying a house.

Between 2007 and 2017, average home prices in areas facing the lowest risk of flooding, hurricanes and wildfires have far outpaced those with the greatest risk...Homes in areas most exposed to flood and hurricane risk were worth less last year, on average, than a decade earlier....

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2018-climate-change-home-sales/

A bit of good news, for once. Would that we were wise enough to take advantage of any small respite...

Rising bedrock below West Antarctica could delay catastrophic ice sheet collapse
Katie Langin | Jun. 21, 2018

...a study in this week's Science offers a glimmer of hope, documenting a process that could slow the collapse. As ice melts and the load on the crust lightens, the bedrock beneath West Antarctica is rising rapidly. In places it could rise 8 meters over the coming century—potentially protecting the ice from the warm seawater that is melting it from below. "It may just buy the world a few extra decades," says Rick Aster, a seismologist at Colorado State University in Fort Collins and an author of the new study.

The West Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable because its bed lies far below sea level, forming a giant basin that slopes inland to a depth of more than a kilometer. Glaciers—"rivers" of ice—shed ice into the ocean. For the moment, some are snagged on ridges in the sea floor, slowing their flow. But as the warming ocean erodes them from below, they could retreat behind the ridges. Seawater would then pour into the basin, lifting ice off the bedrock and melting it in a runaway process. "It's a very unstable situation," says Natalya Gomez, a geophysicist at McGill University in Montreal, Canada.

...But some scientists say no amount of rebound will prevent ice sheet collapse in the long term, given the pace of carbon emissions and global warming. "It's not a get out of jail free card," says Ted Scambos, a glaciologist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. "It's more of a refinement on the pace of ice sheet collapse," he says, especially if we continue "stomping on the climate gas pedal." Ingo Sasgen, a geophysicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute in Bremerhaven, Germany, agrees. "It's still a rather slow process compared to melting," he says. "If you have a very strong warming from the ocean, the ice sheet will disintegrate whatever the solid earth does."

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/06/rising-bedrock-below-west-antarctica-coul...

Perhaps a complimentary condition to the rising land would be an increase in snowfall , because warmer air can hold more water, adding ice to some of the more arid regions of Anartica. We touched on this in an oceanography course many years ago - the snow also improves the albedo .

The timing of course on these events are what’s important. Difficult to estimate, you could be talking about “geologic time” instead of any time period considered contemporary by humans.

Ramón A. Alvarez et al. 2018. Assessment of methane emissions from the U.S. oil and gas supply chain. Science 21 Jun 2018:
eaar7204. DOI: 10.1126/science.aar7204 . http://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2018/06/20/science.aar7204

Abstract

Methane emissions from the U.S. oil and natural gas supply chain were estimated using ground-based, facility-scale measurements and validated with aircraft observations in areas accounting for ~30% of U.S. gas production. When scaled up nationally, our facility-based estimate of 2015 supply chain emissions is 13 ± 2 Tg/y, equivalent to 2.3% of gross U.S. gas production. This value is ~60% higher than the U.S. EPA inventory estimate, likely because existing inventory methods miss emissions released during abnormal operating conditions. Methane emissions of this magnitude, per unit of natural gas consumed, produce radiative forcing over a 20-year time horizon comparable to the CO2 from natural gas combustion. Significant emission reductions are feasible through rapid detection of the root causes of high emissions and deployment of less failure-prone systems.
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Study: US oil and gas methane emissions have been dramatically underestimated
Using better equipment can reduce leakages, capture valuable gas.
Megan Geuss - 6/22/2018

The US has been dramatically underestimating methane emissions from oil and gas operations...methane emissions from oil and gas production are likely 63 percent higher than what the Environmental Protection Agency has reported.

...methane is a potent greenhouse gas that has more of a warming effect in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, part for part. On the other hand, methane is shorter lived in the atmosphere than carbon dioxide, so restricting its escape can have positive short-term effects on warming.

...estimated that US natural gas production is releasing gas equivalent to 2.3 percent of gross US national gas production. That number is 63 percent higher than the 1.4 percent the EPA had previously estimated. The New York Times points to a 2017 study that found that once the natural gas leakage rate hit between four and five percent of gross US natural gas production, natural gas is about equivalent to burning coal from a climate perspective.

...Current industry measurement practices “miss high emissions caused by abnormal operating conditions,” like equipment malfunction. For example, the study says that measurement teams generally don't measure the leakage rate of venting tanks because getting close to a venting tank is dangerous, and measurement is technically difficult without an aerial survey.

...The authors say that these methane emissions represent a problem that has a relatively painless solution. The leaking natural gas as a whole constitutes about $2 billion per year in sales, and continuing leaks "significantly erode the potential climate benefits of natural gas use."

To get back that money and that environmental benefit, oil and gas producers merely need to adopt a few well-established technologies and practices to identify and stop leaks on-site. These technologies include "optical gas imaging, deployment of passive sensors at individual facilities or mounted on ground-based work trucks, and in situ remote sensing approaches using tower networks, aircraft or satellites," the paper states. More frequent observation of leaks, the authors argue, will result in better-studied leaks and, consequently, better-engineered technology to prevent leaks.

Minority opposition to the solution

Methane leaks and venting in the oil and gas industry have been a concern for years. However, the Trump administration has been opposed to quantifying the leaks and enforcing best practices despite general support for fewer methane emissions and less resource waste.

In early 2017, the Senate voted 51-49 not to scrap an Obama-era rule allowing the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) to adopt methane release standards for oil and gas producers on federal and tribal lands. The vote was surprising because it garnered the support of a few Republicans at a time when similar legislative actions were unyieldingly partisan. The Republican senators who stepped away from their party opposed the leak of valuable resources that, if captured and sold, would generate royalties for their states.

Later, however, the Department of the Interior moved to suspend the rule while exploring ways to weaken or eliminate it. The DOI's action was challenged in court, and in February a US District court blocked the department's suspension of the rules.

Similarly, the EPA, led by Administrator Scott Pruitt, has resisted any enforcement of methane emissions standards. The agency has tried to freeze its own rules limiting methane emissions, and, in April, fourteen states sued the agency for freezing enforcement of Obama-era rules that would have regulated methane leaks under the Clean Air Act.

Science, 2018. DOI: 10.1126/science.aar7204 (About DOIs).

https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/06/study-us-oil-and-gas-methane-emissions-h...

The Refugees The World Barely Pays Attention To
Tim McDonnell | June 20, 2018

This month, diplomats from around the world met in New York and Geneva to hash out a pair of new global agreements that aim to lay out new guidelines for how countries should deal with an unprecedented surge in the number of displaced people, which has now reached 65.6 million worldwide.

But there's one emerging category that seems to be getting short shrift in the conversation: so-called "climate refugees," who currently lack any formal definition, recognition or protection under international law even as the scope of their predicament becomes more clear.

Since 2008, an average of 24 million people have been displaced by catastrophic weather disasters each year. As climate change worsens storms and droughts, climate scientists and migration experts expect that number to rise.

Meanwhile, climate impacts that unravel over time, like desert expansion and sea level rise, are also forcing people from their homes: A World Bank report in March projects that within three of the most vulnerable regions — sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Latin America — 143 million people could be displaced by these impacts by 2050...

https://www.npr.org/2018/06/22/622540331/fact-check-trump-illegal-immigration-an...

Key science agency drops climate change from mission priorities
The change coincides with the gutting of three EPA advisory committees.
E.A. Crunden | Jun 25, 2018

(NOAA) A crucial federal agency overseeing the National Weather Service and other key programs addressing and documenting climate change issues appears set to pivot away from the issue at the behest of the Trump administration...a Department of Commerce slide presentation lead by the agency’s acting head, Tim Gallaudet, introduced a new mission statement for the agency.

The past mission emphasized NOAA’s commitment “to understand and predict changes in climate, weather, oceans and coasts.” But the new mission dropped the leading pledge, reducing the pledge and committing only “to observe, understand and predict atmospheric and ocean conditions.”

The presentation also introduced a new pledge, one with an emphasis on themes the Trump administration has touted, including the protection of “lives and property” and a promise to “empower the economy, and support homeland and national security.”...

https://thinkprogress.org/noaa-climate-change-mission-science-4ce89f07db07/

>13 margd: Well, this won't end well.

"Distractions. In 1984 by George Orwell, the government uses many different ways of distracting the people. The government, or Big Brother, purposely distracts its people so they will be more willing to follow and work for them. Distraction plays a major role in BB's attempt to keep the people under his control. With their focus somewhere else they'll forget about the real problem. Big Brother gives the people a common enemy, Goldstein, to hate. This hatred of Goldstein unifies everybody under the control of BB. This common enemy also scares the people, looking to BB for reassurance that they will be safe. With their attention and hate directed towards Goldstein, Big Brother is now free to do what he wants."

http://www.online-literature.com/forums/showthread.php?80507-Distractions

Boreal forests, carbon sinks like rainforests and oceans, are feared to be at tipping point. Drought, diseases & pests, wildfire may transform forests into savannahs...

Associate Professor Brendan Choat: "If we can work out, using non-invasive methods like MRIs, the point at which trees become too dehydrated to survive then we can establish a dataset that can be used in the field to tell if a tree is reaching the point of no return."

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What killed the patient? Determining causes of tree death during droughts and heatwaves
June 28, 2018, University of Western Sydney

Read more at: https://phys.org/news/2018-06-patient-tree-death-droughts-heatwaves.html#jCp

...scientists are using advanced technologies such as Medical Resonance Imaging (MRI) to peer into living trees and map how increasing dehydration of the trees results in the progressive dieback of leaves and branches, eventually causing the trees to be unable to move water through the stems. As the trees weaken, they become susceptible to insect and disease attacks which ultimately can kill the tree outright.
What killed the patient? Determining causes of tree death during droughts and heatwaves

...Trees are only able to move water to the tops of their branches if there is enough water in the soil and if they can preserve the column of water in their stems without bubbles or breakages. Most trees are able to maintain this flow of water but extreme demand for water during heat coupled with increasing soil dryness can mean that the flow can be interrupted. This can result in the death of leaves, then branches and ultimately the whole tree.

...Explore further: Certain species of trees retain stored water, limit root growth to survive three months without water

https://phys.org/news/2018-06-patient-tree-death-droughts-heatwaves.html#jCp

Rising seas: 'Florida is about to be wiped off the map'
Elizabeth Rush | Tue 26 Jun 2018

Sea level rises are not some distant threat; for many Americans they are very real. In an extract from her chilling new book, Rising. Dispatches from the New American Shore, Elizabeth Rush details how the US coastline will be radically transformed in the coming years...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jun/26/rising-seas-florida-climate-...

Red-hot planet: All-time heat records have been set all over the world during the past week
Jason Samenow | July 5, 2018

...No single record, in isolation, can be attributed to global warming. But collectively, these heat records are consistent with the kind of extremes we expect to see increase in a warming world...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2018/07/03/hot-plane...

The Pliocene – The last time Earth had 400 ppm of Carbon Dioxide
r.d.pancost | July 9, 2018 by

... First of all, (Earth in the Pliocene) was not an inhospitable planet – plants and animals thrived....The changes in the climate we are inducing is a problem for us humans, and for our societies, not the planet we’re on...forest fires...impacting infrastructure and the economy, warping rail lines, disrupting work patterns, driving up electricity usage...causing deaths...are we and the ecosystems on which we depend prepared for the speed of this rapid global warming? Organisms and ecosystems had millions of years to evolve in a manner that allowed them to thrive in the Pliocene and previous greenhouse climates.

Second, the Pliocene was a rather different world....wetter...corroborating evidence for models that predict a warmer and wetter future.

Perhaps most striking, sea level in the Pliocene appears to have been between 10 to 40 metres higher than today...

...ice sheet hysteresis... due to feedback mechanisms, it could be easier to build an ice sheet on Greenland or Antarctica than it is to melt one...it may be that a planet with today’s carbon dioxide levels of 400 ppm will not necessarily have a sea level 20 metres higher than that of today – as it was during the Pliocene. On the other hand if hysteresis is rather weak, then the question is not whether we will see such a massive sea level change, but how long it will take to arrive (probably hundreds or even thousands of years).

Most importantly, the collective research into Earth history, including the Pliocene, reveals that Earth’s climate can and has changed. It also reveals that climate does not just change randomly: it changes when forced in ways that are relatively well understood – one of these is the concentration of carbon dioxide in our atmosphere. And consequently, there is little doubt from Earth’s history that transforming fossil carbon underground into carbon dioxide in the air – as we are doing today – will significantly affect the climate we experience for the forseeable future.

http://richpancost.blogs.bristol.ac.uk/2018/07/09/the-pliocene-the-last-time-ear...

In wildfire season, Trump pardons arsonists??

https://www.justice.gov/usao-or/pr/eastern-oregon-ranchers-convicted-arson-resen...

https://www.oregonlive.com/oregon-standoff/2018/07/white_house_statement_on_pard...

Maybe a state (TI) will have more standing with a court than the two CA cities did?

Rhode Island sues oil companies over climate change
Timothy Cama - 07/02/18

Rhode Island’s attorney general sued a dozen oil and natural gas companies and their affiliates Monday in state court, accusing them of causing climate change and not sufficiently mitigating its effects.

Attorney General Peter Kilmartin (D) said Rhode Island is uniquely harmed by global warming, with its more than 400 miles of shoreline, fishing industry, marine economy and other factors.

...The defendants in the lawsuit include big companies across the petroleum supply chain, including Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp., ConocoPhillips Co., Marathon Oil Corp. and Hess Corp.

Kilmartin’s lawsuit is the first time that a state has sued fossil fuel companies to hold them responsible for the effects of climate change.

...in the first major instance of such cases to be decided, a federal judge rejected lawsuits by San Francisco and Oakland, Calif., last month. The court said the scientific conclusions regarding climate change are sound, but it’s not the role of the courts to solve the issue...

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/395215-rhode-island-sues-oil-compan...

California meets greenhouse gas reduction goal years early
The Associated Press | Wednesday, July 11, 2018
https://triblive.com/usworld/world/13857096-74/california-meets-greenhouse-gas-r...

Meanwhile, new government in Ontario will end cap-and-trade (part of a larger program with California and Quebec), including programs funded by cap-and-trade, such as incentives for homeowners to make their homes more energy efficient and for motorists to switch to electric vehicles. Canadian feds may implement its own C tax in Ontario. https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/doug-ford-ending-cap-and-trade-1.4731954

Scientists found evidence that sudden release of meltwater from huge glacial lakes, such as Lake Agassiz into Arctic (via Mackenzie River) triggered a sudden cooling in North America and Europe 13,000 years ago--by shutting down the crucial circulation known as the "Atlantic meridional overturning circulation". There's evidence in river/lake bottoms for meltwater releases via the St Lawrence R/Hudson R when ice dams broke, but new info suggests Mackenzie R was the BIG ONE. Fear today is that Greenland glacial melt could likewise shut down warming currents in the North Atlantic.

Scientists on Coast Guard ship may have solved a huge riddle in Earth's climate past
CHRISTOPHER MOONEY | The Washington Post | Published: July 11, 2018

Thirteen thousand years ago, an ice age was ending, the Earth was warming, the oceans were rising. Then something strange happened — the Northern Hemisphere suddenly became much colder, and stayed that way for more than a thousand years.

For some time, scientists have been debating how this major climatic event — called the "Younger Dryas" — happened. The question has grown more urgent: Its answer may involve the kind of fast-moving climate event that could occur again.

This week, a scientific team on board the U.S. Coast Guard Cutter Healy made a new claim to having found that answer. On the basis of measurements taken off the northern coasts of Alaska and Canada in the Beaufort Sea, the scientists say they detected the signature of a huge glacial flood event that occurred around the same time.

This flood, they posit, would have flowed from the Arctic into the Atlantic Ocean and shut down the crucial circulation known as the "Atlantic meridional overturning circulation" (or AMOC) — plunging Europe and much of North America back into cold conditions...

https://www.stripes.com/news/scientists-on-coast-guard-ship-may-have-solved-a-hu...

Map of Current Droughts in Europe (third 10-day period of June 2018):
http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/edov2/php/index.php?id=1052

Wildfires, drought here in North America, too... Smoke has made for some beautiful sunsets lately...

Yet another hot day far up in the Arctic circle – northern Finland already at 33 °C by 11:30 UTC (July 18)!
18/07/2018 Latest news

http://www.severe-weather.eu/news/yet-another-hot-day-far-up-in-the-arctic-circl...

Court rejects new Trump attempt to halt kids' climate lawsuit
John Bowden - 07/20/18 03:15 PM EDT

...The California-based 9th Circuit Court of Appeals ruled unanimously on Friday that the lawsuit can go forward.

The suit argues that the Trump administration "violated the youngest generation’s constitutional rights to life, liberty, and property, as well as failed to protect essential public trust resources" through their climate policies.

...The Trump administration has twice sought to either halt the case or have it thrown out entirely...

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/398101-court-rejects-second-trump-a...

Scientists Have Found a Disturbing Link Between Suicide Rates And Climate Change
CARLY CASSELLA | 23 JUL 2018

The findings are "brutal."

...a ground-breaking new study has found a disturbing link between climate change, extreme temperatures and suicide. By comparing temperature and suicide data from thousands of US counties and Mexican municipalities over several decades, the study has revealed strong evidence that hotter weather increases suicide rates.

All in all, the researchers found that if the world warms by 2.5 degrees Celsius by 2050, it could result in a 1.4 percent increase in America's suicide rate and a 2.3 percent increase in Mexico's suicide rate.

After taking into account population growth and no less than 30 climate models, the researchers predict that hotter temperatures could result in an additional 21,000 suicides in the US and Mexico by 2050.

This is no small matter. As the authors point out, these effects are as large in size as the influence of economic recessions (which increase the suicide rate) or gun restriction laws (which decrease the suicide rate).

...people fight more when it's hot

...the study also found a significant link between "depressive" language on Twitter - such as "lonely," "trapped" or "suicidal" - and unusually hot local temperatures.

Specifically, it was revealed that for each additional 1 degrees Celsius increase above average, the likelihood of a tweet containing depressive language rose by 0.79 percent. As interesting as these results are, the underlying mechanism here is again poorly understood...

https://www.sciencealert.com/climate-change-heat-wave-abnormally-hot-temperature...

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The article in Nature is at
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0222-x.epdf

Trump to propose blocking California’s clean car standards: report
Timothy Cama | 07/23/18

The Trump administration is planning a proposal to block California regulators from enforcing their own emissions standards for vehicles sold in the state.

Bloomberg News reported Monday that the proposal will be part of a regulation the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) will jointly propose in the coming days to freeze or reduce federal greenhouse gas emissions and fuel efficiency rules for cars.

The proposal would set up a battle with California over whether the Clean Air Act allows its decades-long aggressive crackdown on car emissions. The fight is almost certain to go to court if the administration pursues it.

The rules have become part of California’s environmental identity, as well as part of its efforts to clean the air in Los Angeles and other heavily polluted areas...

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/398372-trump-admin-to-propose-block...

You’re living in a new geologic age. It’s called the Meghalayan
The Meghalayan is one of three newly designated time intervals dividing the Holocene Epoch
Beth Geiger | July 20, 2018

...DRY TIMES A 200-year drought 4,200 years ago that caused civilizations to collapse across the globe marks the start of the newly designated Meghalayan Age...droughts still occur during this ongoing geologic time period...

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/living-new-geologic-age-called-meghalayan?ut...

_____________________________________________________________________

International Commission on Stratigraphy. Collapse of civilizations worldwide defines youngest unit of the Geologic Time Scale. July 12, 2018.
http://www.stratigraphy.org/index.php/ics-news-and-meetings/119-collapse-of-civi... *

...The Late Holocene Meghalayan Age, newly-ratified as the most recent unit of the Geologic Time Scale, began at the time when agricultural societies around the world experienced an abrupt and critical mega-drought and cooling 4,200 years ago....Agricultural-based societies that developed in several regions after the end of the last Ice Age were impacted severely by the 200-year climatic event that resulted in the collapse of civilizations and human migrations in Egypt, Greece, Syria, Palestine, Mesopotamia, the Indus Valley, and the Yangtze River Valley. Evidence of the 4.2 kiloyear climatic event has been found on all seven continents...

Climate Change is Killing the Cedars of Lebanon
July 18, 2018

Barouk Cedar Forest, Lebanon — Walking among the cedars on a mountain slope in Lebanon feels like visiting the territory of primeval beings. Some of the oldest trees have been here for more than 1,000 years, spreading their uniquely horizontal branches like outstretched arms and sending their roots deep into the craggy limestone. They flourish on the moisture and cool temperatures that make this ecosystem unusual in the Middle East, with mountaintops that snare the clouds floating in from the Mediterranean Sea and gleam with winter snow.

But now, after centuries of human depredation, the cedars of Lebanon face perhaps their most dangerous threat: Climate change could wipe out most of the country’s remaining cedar forests by the end of the century...

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/07/18/climate/lebanon-climate-change-en...

Heat waves and wildfires, the new normal... (Greece, Japan, Europe, North America...)

Raging NorCal wildfire turns deadly, forces "mass evacuations"
Last Updated Jul 27, 2018 3:50 AM EDT

An explosive wildfire...swept through the communities of Shasta and Keswick before jumping the Sacramento River and reaching Redding, a city of about 92,000 people - the largest in the region.

Firefighters tried in vain to build containment around the blaze Thursday but flames kept jumping their lines, (reporter) said.

...CalFire Unified Incident Commander Chief Brett Gouvea told reporters, "The fire community is extremely heartbroken for this loss (bulldozer contractor). ... As we mourn the loss, we also battle a fire that is moving extremely quickly and erratically into western Redding. ... We ask everyone to heed evacuation orders and leave promptly. This fire is extremely dangerous and moving with no regard for what's in its path."

..."Really we're in a life-saving mode right now in Redding," said Jonathan Cox, battalion chief with Cal Fire. "We're not fighting a fire. We're trying to move people out of the path of it because it is now deadly and it is now moving at speeds and in ways we have not seen before in this area."

...Drives that normally take 20 minutes were reaching two-and-a-half hours long as residents fled to safety, (Scott McLean, a CalFire spokesman) said.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/carr-fire-raging-wildfire-northern-california-turns...

________________________________________________

Update: All Emergency personnel on the #CarrFire are abandoning structure defense and containment efforts, only goal is to safely evacuate citizens. #Redding #Breaking

Bernie Deyo @EPN473 8:56 PM - 26 Jul 2018 from Eagle, ID

It is hard for me to imagine what they went through in Greece,sympathy to the people there, from some of the news reports it looked like the vegetation was sparse in many areas - though they showed abundant houses. I guess the constant 60 mph winds will ignite anything & the combusted high temperature gases aren't always visible as a red flame, just a high temperature blanket of gas capable of starting a fire with most anything?

I would like to see an explanation of those conditions with graphics

I thought of ancient Roman city of Pompei--so horrific.

ETA_______________________________________

Science says record heat, fires worsened by climate change
SETH BORENSTEIN and FRANK JORDANS | July 27, 2018
https://apnews.com/fc5a843fe46942629d1e61d525103fb9

While gusts of wind to 120 km per hr as well as heat responsible in Greece, sounds like extreme heat is the biggest issue in California. Cars melted in Greece, while fire vortex uprooted trees and melted an electric transmission tower in CA. Stalling "dips" in jetstream keeps heat from dissipating in North America, Europe, and Japan?

...Gusts of wind up to 120 kilometers per hour (75 mph) -- the fastest recorded in Attica in eight summers -- fanned the flames, which were further fueled by temperatures topping 37 degrees Celsius (99 F) and low humidity, creating ideal conditions for fires to spread rapidly, according to the National Observatory of Athens...

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/07/25/europe/greece-wildfires-missing-intl/index.ht...

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The terrifying science behind whirling ‘fire vortex’ in Shasta’s Carr Fire inferno
“Fire Vortex” creates dangerously erratic conditions
Lisa M. Krieger | July 27, 2018

Triple-digit temperatures and super-concentrated heat — not heavy winds — are spinning funnels of fire that have twice erupted in the dangerous Carr Fire, tormenting the city of Redding in Northern California as firefighters contend with a rare meteorological foe.

Witnesses likened one Thursday night to a tornado. Another ominous fire cloud Friday reached nearly five miles high, so tall it cast a shadow and caused wind gusts of 50 mph...

https://www.mercurynews.com/2018/07/27/shastas-roaring-carr-fire-ignites-furious...

Heat unveils archeological sites--and life (nematode worms)!

Heat wave in U.K., Ireland reveals ancient settlements
Extreme conditions have aerial archeologists racing to document footprints of hidden monuments.
Michael d'Estries | July 10, 2018
https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/climate-weather/blogs/uk-heat-wave-reveals-hid...

Worms frozen in permafrost for 42,000 years brought back to life
The last time they squirmed was in the Pleistocene Age.
Bryan Nelson | July 26, 2018
https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/animals/stories/worms-frozen-permafrost-42000-...

This could / will be transformative.
(See ending, Planet of the Apes-- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XrgIXVKmcZY ...)

Ocean acidification to hit levels not seen in 14 million years
Julia Short, Cardiff University | July 23, 2018

...Under a 'business-as-usual' future scenario where we continue to emit CO2 at the same rate as we do today, atmospheric CO2 would be near 930 parts per million in the year 2100, compared to around 400 parts per million today.

Similarly, the pH of the oceans would be less than 7.8 in 2100 compared to a pH of around 8.1 today. This is very significant as the pH scale is logarithmic, meaning a drop of just 0.1 pH units represents a 25% increase in acidity.

These levels of atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidity have not been since the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum period around 14 million years ago, when global temperatures were around 3°C warmer than today as a result of the Earth's natural geological cycle...

https://phys.org/news/2018-07-ocean-acidification-million-years.html

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Source of Half Earth's Oxygen Gets Little Credit
John Roach | June 7, 2004

... Half of the world's oxygen is produced via phytoplankton photosynthesis. The other half is produced via photosynthesis on land by trees, shrubs, grasses, and other plants...

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/06/0607_040607_phytoplankton.html

Climate change driven by humans made heatwave 'twice as likely

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44980363

2018 is on pace to be the 4th-hottest year on record
Eric Levenson and Brandon Millerm | July 28, 2018

...According to data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2018 is on pace to be the fourth hottest year on record. Only three other years have been hotter: 2015, 2016 and 2017...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/07/28/us/2018-global-heat-record-4th-wxc/index.html

Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation's effect on surface temperatures is being re-thought, refined with regard to feedback mechanisms:
it's...complicated...but important to understand how the earth is handling heat inputs!
(Even better, just stop activities that result in more heat.)

Sluggish Atlantic circulation could cause global temperatures to surge
Gerard D. McCarthy & Peter W. Thorne 18 July 2018

The circulation system of the North Atlantic Ocean has weakened and is predicted to weaken further in the coming decades. An analysis suggests that this decline could lead to accelerated global surface warming.

...a strong AMOC (Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation) is typically associated with warming in the Northern Hemisphere. This association is consistent with evidence from palaeoclimatology that suggests that, during the most recent ice age, warmer periods coincided with a vigorous AMOC and colder periods coincided with a weak AMOC.

Chen and Tung’s study emphasizes a different role for the AMOC in the modern climate. Atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases are currently being increased at a rate that is unprecedented in millennia and most likely millions of years. As a result, the role that climate mechanisms might have had in the past might not be a good guide to their current or future role. The authors contend that half of the heat arising from ever-increasing greenhouse-gas concentrations is stored in the deep waters of the North Atlantic when the AMOC is increasing, thereby reducing overall global surface warming.

...The authors show that a cycle of increasing and then decreasing AMOC from the 1940s to the mid-1970s coincided with a period of global-warming slowdown; a quiescent period of weak AMOC from the mid-1970s to the late 1990s coincided with rapid global warming; and an increase in AMOC strength from the late 1990s to 2005 and a decrease thereafter coincided with the ‘hiatus’ in global warming.

...Although the prospect of the AMOC passing a tipping point and collapsing is considered unlikely, it is not impossible, and an event this dramatic could lead to global surface cooling. The threshold between a weak AMOC that reduces ocean heat uptake, allowing global surface temperatures to rise unabated, and a very weak or collapsed AMOC that causes cooling in the North Atlantic and global surface warming to slow or stop will be a key point of debate....

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-05712-x

____________________________________________________________

Xianyao Chen & Ka-Kit Tung . 2018. Global surface warming enhanced by weak Atlantic overturning circulation. Nature 559, 340-341 (2018)
doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-05712-x . https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0320-y

Abstract

Evidence from palaeoclimatology suggests that abrupt Northern Hemisphere cold events are linked to weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC)1, potentially by excess inputs of fresh water2. But these insights—often derived from model runs under preindustrial conditions—may not apply to the modern era with our rapid emissions of greenhouse gases. If they do, then a weakened AMOC, as in 1975–1998, should have led to Northern Hemisphere cooling. Here we show that, instead, the AMOC minimum was a period of rapid surface warming. More generally, in the presence of greenhouse-gas heating, the AMOC’s dominant role changed from transporting surface heat northwards, warming Europe and North America, to storing heat in the deeper Atlantic, buffering surface warming for the planet as a whole. During an accelerating phase from the mid-1990s to the early 2000s, the AMOC stored about half of excess heat globally, contributing to the global-warming slowdown. By contrast, since mooring observations began3,4,5 in 2004, the AMOC and oceanic heat uptake have weakened. Our results, based on several independent indices, show that AMOC changes since the 1940s are best explained by multidecadal variability6, rather than an anthropogenically forced trend. Leading indicators in the subpolar North Atlantic today suggest that the current AMOC decline is ending. We expect a prolonged AMOC minimum, probably lasting about two decades. If prior patterns hold, the resulting low levels of oceanic heat uptake will manifest as a period of rapid global surface warming.

Trump moves to roll back Obama emission standards
Timothy Cama and Miranda Green | 08/02/18

...The Obama administration set the standards in 2012 as part of a set of rules meant to intensify from 2017 through 2026.

Instead, the EPA and DOT are now proposing freezing the standards at their planned 2020 level, canceling any future strengthening.

...Transportation is the most significant source of carbon dioxide emissions in the nation, and the Obama rules were estimated to reduce emissions by 6 billion metric tons and reduce oil use by 2 million barrels per day.

...In addition to the argument that car manufacturers will be unable to meet the fuel efficiency standards set forth in the Obama plan, the administration is arguing that more stringent standards will drive up the cost of new cars — therefore leaving many drivers stuck with older models with lower safety standards. (Fe & Al tariffs? NAFTA?)

...The auto industry, which has long sought to ease Obama's rules, welcomed the proposal as the start of a negotiation, though it did not endorse a complete freeze of the standards in 2021.

...A group of attorneys general from 19 blue states and the District of Columbia pledged to sue if Trump makes the proposal final.

...California Attorney General Xavier Becerra (D) said he’d fight the Trump administration if it moved to revoke the (Califonia) waiver.

...Thursday’s proposal will soon be published in the Federal Register, kicking off a 60-day period during which the public will be invited to submit comments. After that, the agencies will review the comments before making the plan final, at which time opponents could sue to stop the rollback....

http://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/400036-trump-submits-rule-to-weaken...

Florida’s summertime slime fueled by climate change as well as pollution
Craig Pittman | July 6, 2018. Updated: July 9, 2018 at 11:06 AM

Florida is awash in toxic algae right now.

Blue-green algae covers 90 percent of Lake Okeechobee. It’s now grown thick in the canals connecting the lake to the St. Lucie River on the east coast, as well as in the Caloosahatchee River near Fort Myers on the west coast.

Meanwhile a long-running Red Tide algae bloom on the state’s west coast has been killing sea turtles (300!) and manatees in the Boca Grande area, according to river advocates and fishing captains. Fishkills and respiratory complaints have been pouring into the state wildlife commission from four counties.

Both algae blooms are wrecking the coastal economy in the areas they’re afflicting. And both are fueled by climate change as warmer water temperatures boost the likelihood of blooms.

...people in Southwest Florida affected by the algae blooms used to shy away from discussing them for fear of driving away tourists, anglers and potential real estate buyers. But this one, he said, is so bad that they’re talking about it — and discussing the role played by climate change...

http://www.tampabay.com/news/environment/Florida-s-summertime-slime-fueled-by-cl...

This is our future.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/08/04/world/europe/europe-heat-wave.html

Scorching Summer in Europe Signals Long-Term Climate Changes

Bloody unbelievable. Ever consider curbing global warming?
(Nominated science advisor has his work cut out for him...):

California wildfires are being magnified & made so much worse by the bad environmental laws which aren’t allowing massive amount of readily available water to be properly utilized. It is being diverted into the Pacific Ocean. Must also tree clear to stop fire spreading!

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
3:06 PM - 5 Aug 2018

One way climate change kills is by disease. Too often the species or population can't evolve fast enough and succumbs.
Below is one happy story at least. For now:

A Baby Boom Is Helping West Coast Starfish Recover After Die-Off
Cassandra Profita Follow OPB/EarthFix June 26, 2018

...A wasting disease in 2014 took an unprecedented toll on sea stars up and down the West Coast.

...Researchers still can’t explain exactly what caused the massive die-off, though they think it could be linked to climate change.

...New research suggests the new sea star populations may be evolving to promote genetic resistance to the virus causing the wasting disease...

https://www.opb.org/news/article/starfish-population-west-coast-baby-boom/

Methane and ethylene produced by degrading plastic: small contribution now, but expected to increase.
Land litter worse in this respect than water's.

Royer S-J, Ferrón S, Wilson ST, Karl DM (2018) Production of methane and ethylene from plastic in the environment. PLoS ONE 13(8): e0200574. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0200574

Abstract

Mass production of plastics started nearly 70 years ago and the production rate is expected to double over the next two decades. While serving many applications because of their durability, stability and low cost, plastics have deleterious effects on the environment. Plastic is known to release a variety of chemicals during degradation, which has a negative impact on biota. Here, we show that the most commonly used plastics produce two greenhouse gases, methane and ethylene, when exposed to ambient solar radiation. Polyethylene, which is the most produced and discarded synthetic polymer globally, is the most prolific emitter of both gases. We demonstrate that the production of trace gases from virgin low-density polyethylene increase with time, with rates at the end of a 212-day incubation of 5.8 nmol g-1 d-1 of methane, 14.5 nmol g-1 d-1 of ethylene, 3.9 nmol g-1 d-1 of ethane and 9.7 nmol g-1 d-1 of propylene. Environmentally aged plastics incubated in water for at least 152 days also produced hydrocarbon gases. In addition, low-density polyethylene emits these gases when incubated in air at rates ~2 times and ~76 times higher than when incubated in water for methane and ethylene, respectively. Our results show that plastics represent a heretofore unrecognized source of climate-relevant trace gases that are expected to increase as more plastic is produced and accumulated in the environment.

Introduction

Over the past 50 years, polymer manufacturing has accelerated, from 2x106 metric tonnes (Mt) per year in 1950 to 381x106 Mt per year in 2015, and is expected to double in the next 20 years...

Polyethylene, like other plastics, is not inert and is known to release additives and other degradation products into the environment throughout its lifetime...bisphenol-A...hydrocarbon gases...some can be toxic and have adverse effects on the environment and human health. Degradation processes...fragment...the polymer into smaller units increasing the surface area exposed to the elements...

Discussion

The influence of plastic composition on hydrocarbon gas production...

Long-term hydrocarbon gas emission from plastics...

Driving factors for gas emissions...

Effects of morphology and density of polyethylene on gas emissions...

Closing comments

The global production of plastic is large and the amount of plastic waste generated in 2010 from 192 countries was 275x106 Mt from which 4.8x106 to 12.7x106 Mt was estimated to enter the ocean. By 2025, the amount of plastic waste input to marine systems might increase by an order of magnitude if waste management is not improved. Because polyethylene is the most common polymer, it is anticipated to be the most common form of plastic pollution in surface ocean waters worldwide. In addition, as microplastics with greater surface area are produced hydrocarbon gas production rates will likely accelerate. The results from this study indicate that hydrocarbon gas production may continue indefinitely throughout the lifetime of plastics. The amount of plastic material in the environment exposed to full sunlight exceeds the quantity of submerged plastic. Our experiments indicated that emissions of hydrocarbon gases are even greater (up to 2 times higher for CH4 and up to 76 times higher for C2H4) in air compared to in water. The difference in emission rate for plastic in water compared to plastic exposed to air is partly due to temperature and heat build-up, resulting in the plastic material reaching a temperature higher than the surrounding medium. Furthermore, plastic exposed to air is subjected to less biofouling than in aquatic environments because of the lack of a fluid medium that facilitates microorganisms settling onto the plastic substrate resulting in more surfaces directly exposed to solar radiation and more conducive to deformation, degradation and hydrocarbon production. Therefore, in warm climates, higher hydrocarbon production rates are expected for plastic exposed to air compared to plastic in aquatic environments.

At this stage, very little is known about the contribution of plastic to CH4, C2H4 and other hydrocarbon gas budgets. This study reports the first measurements of hydrocarbon production by plastic under ambient conditions. Based on the rates measured in this study and the amount of plastic produced worldwide CH4 production by plastics is likely to be an insignificant component of the global CH4 budget. However, for the other hydrocarbon gases with much lower global emissions to the atmosphere compared to CH4, the production from the plastics might have more environmental and global relevance. The fate of these gases is also not well constrained, but sinks are likely to be bacterial oxidation to carbon dioxide with a portion of these gases emitted to the atmosphere. Given the ongoing rate at which plastic is being produced, used and exposed on land and the future trend in mismanaged plastic waste ending up in marine systems the amount of plastic exposed to the environment will likely increase with time and so too will the amount of CH4 and C2H4 emitted from polymers. In addition, degradation of plastics in the environment leads to the formation of microplastics with greater surface area, which may accelerate hydrocarbon gas production. Due to the longevity of plastics and the large amounts of plastic persisting in the environment, questions related to the role of plastic in the CH4 and C2H4 global budgets should be prioritized and addressed by the scientific community.

On climate change, it’s time to start panicking
Matthew Rozsa | August 5, 2018

It is time for us to panic about global warming. Indeed, a proper state of panic is long overdue.

...it is easy to lose sight of a crucial fact: If we do not resolve the problem of man-made climate change, it could quite literally spell the end of human civilization.

...If we are to stave off even worse examples of extreme weather than the hurricanes, wildfires, floods, droughts and heat waves we've already experienced, however, we need to start implementing intelligent policies — and do so now.

"I would place a price on carbon," Michael E. Mann, a Distinguished Professor of Atmospheric Science at Penn State, told Salon by email. "...The price on carbon needs to be set such that it leads to a reduction in carbon emissions of several percent a year for the next few decades. If we do that, we can avoid a catastrophic 2C (~3.5 F) warming of the planet."

...Ken Caldeira from the Carnegie Institute for Science's Department of Global Ecology..."No energy technology is without its downsides...solar...nuclear..(wind)...permitting issues require good public policy and thoughtful decision making. There will be no consensus so we need good government to balance competing interests."

..."...this can't happen only in the United States or Europe. The whole world needs to develop based on near-zero emission technologies, and so would need to enact similar policies. Of course, with so many demands on limited resources, and such inequitable distribution of wealth, this remains a challenge."

...Americans need to elect a president who will renew this country's participation in the Paris climate accord...

https://www.salon.com/2018/08/05/on-climate-change-its-time-to-start-panicking/

Will Steffen et al. 2018. Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene. PNAS August 6, 2018. 201810141; published ahead of print August 6, 2018. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1810141115 http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2018/07/31/1810141115

Abstract

We explore the risk that self-reinforcing feedbacks could push the Earth System toward a planetary threshold that, if crossed, could prevent stabilization of the climate at intermediate temperature rises and cause continued warming on a “Hothouse Earth” pathway even as human emissions are reduced. Crossing the threshold would lead to a much higher global average temperature than any interglacial in the past 1.2 million years and to sea levels significantly higher than at any time in the Holocene. We examine the evidence that such a threshold might exist and where it might be. If the threshold is crossed, the resulting trajectory would likely cause serious disruptions to ecosystems, society, and economies. Collective human action is required to steer the Earth System away from a potential threshold and stabilize it in a habitable interglacial-like state. Such action entails stewardship of the entire Earth System—biosphere, climate, and societies—and could include decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks, behavioral changes, technological innovations, new governance arrangements, and transformed social values.

Arctic carbon cycle is speeding up
Esprit Smith | August 3, 2018

..A new NASA-led study using data from the Arctic Boreal Vulnerability Experiment (ABoVE) shows that carbon in Alaska's North Slope tundra ecosystems spends about 13 percent less time locked in frozen soil than it did 40 years ago. In other words, the carbon cycle there is speeding up -- and is now at a pace more characteristic of a North American boreal forest than of the icy Arctic.

"Warming temperatures mean that essentially we have one ecosystem -- the tundra -- developing some of the characteristics of a different ecosystem -- a boreal forest," said study co-author Anthony Bloom of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California. "W

...not just about the trees....

During Arctic summer, warmer temperatures thaw the uppermost layers of permafrost, allowing microbes to break down previously frozen organic matter.This process releases carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Plant growth also increases during this period - and plants remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere through photosynthesis. But as temperatures increase, the amount of time carbon is stored in the Arctic soil decreases.

"The balance between these two dynamics will determine whether Arctic ecosystems will ultimately remove or add atmospheric carbon dioxide in the future climate. Our study finds that the latter is more likely," said lead author and former JPL postdoctoral researcher Sujong Jeong of Seoul National University.

...Models alone previously indicated an increase in the speed of the carbon cycle, but the addition of long-term satellite, airborne and surface data to the equation shows that those models were underestimating just how significant the increase was.

https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2776/arctic-carbon-cycle-is-speeding-up/
___________________________________________________________________________

Su-Jong Jeong et al. 2018. Accelerating rates of Arctic carbon cycling revealed by long-term atmospheric CO2 measurements. Science Advances 11 Jul 2018:
Vol. 4, no. 7, eaao1167. DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao1167 http://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/7/eaao1167.full

Abstract

The contemporary Arctic carbon balance is uncertain, and the potential for a permafrost carbon feedback of anywhere from 50 to 200 petagrams of carbon (Schuur et al., 2015) compromises accurate 21st-century global climate system projections. The 42-year record of atmospheric CO2 measurements at Barrow, Alaska (71.29 N, 156.79 W), reveals significant trends in regional land-surface CO2 anomalies (ΔCO2), indicating long-term changes in seasonal carbon uptake and respiration. Using a carbon balance model constrained by ΔCO2, we find a 13.4% decrease in mean carbon residence time (50% confidence range = 9.2 to 17.6%) in North Slope tundra ecosystems during the past four decades, suggesting a transition toward a boreal carbon cycling regime. Temperature dependencies of respiration and carbon uptake suggest that increases in cold season Arctic labile carbon release will likely continue to exceed increases in net growing season carbon uptake under continued warming trends.

Australia's most populous state now entirely in drought
August 8, 2018

CANBERRA, Australia -- Australia's most populous state was declared entirely in drought on Wednesday and struggling farmers were given new authority to shoot kangaroos that compete with livestock for sparse pasture during the most intense dry spell in more than 50 years.

Much of Australia's southeast is struggling with drought. But the drought conditions in the Australian state of New South Wales this year have been the driest and most widespread since 1965.

BBC News reports that New South Wales produces about twenty-five percent of Australia's agricultural output. Primary Industries Minister Niall Blair said farmers were enduring one of the driest Southern Hemisphere winters on record. Farm reservoirs have dried up and crops are failing.

...While scientists are hesitant to attribute any individual weather event to rising carbon emissions, a main contributor to global warming, Australia's government has its eye on climate change when it comes to the availability of water resources in the region.

...The department says southern Australia has seen "significant drying," particularly from April to October. Between 1996 and 2015, rainfalls for Australia's southeast fell by about 11 percent since records started being kept in 1900.

The department says the recent drop in rainfall across southern Australia is associated with a trend in the region toward high atmospheric pressure -- a trend linked to shifting weather patterns.

...The current drought on the continent extends beyond North South Wales, with over half of the neighboring state of Queensland also in drought...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/australia-drought-most-populous-state-new-south-wal...

Some teachers are pushing this book on their students claiming "students must be able to think critically and see both sides of the debate." This book is a lie. There are not two sides of the debate. At least not amongst climate scientists. @MichaelEMann #ClimateChange

Why Scientists Disagree about About Global Warming; the NIPCC Report on Scientific Consensus (122 p)
by Carl D Idso, Robert M Carter, and S Fred Singer
Published by The Heartland Institute (www.heartland.org)
https://www.scribd.com/document/292649260/Why-Scientists-Disagree-About-Global-W...

Alternative NOAA @altNOAA
5:09 PM - 8 Aug 2018
______________________________________________________________

One of the authors, Fred Singer, is also known for questioning the link between UV rays and cancer, CFCs and the destruction of the ozone layer, and between second-hand smoke and lung cancer (https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fred_Singer …)

Benjamin Lamb @bjlamb31
10:34 PM - 9 Aug 2018
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These materials were sent to every science teacher in my state (KY). It's ridiculous propaganda and not based on science. I shudder to think how many students are being fed this misinformation.

LauraE @laurahe1
Replying to @altNOAA @MichaelEMann
2:57 AM - 9 Aug 2018

In contrast to >50 margd: some recent actual published science.

NASA Finds Amazon Drought Leaves Long Legacy of Damage
https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news.php?feature=7212

>50 margd:, contd. Interior and WH officials participated in Heartland Institute's climate-deniers conference!

At 'America First Energy Conference', solar power is dumb, climate change is fake
Collin Eaton | August 9, 2018 / 11:35 AM / 3 days ago

...These are among the messages that flowed from the America First Energy Conference in New Orleans this week, hosted by some of the country’s most vocal climate change doubters - and attended by a handful of Trump administration officials.

The second annual conference, organized by the conservative thinktank the Heartland Institute, pulled together speakers from...officials from the U.S. Department of Interior and the White House for panels that included: “Carbon Taxes, Cap & Trade, and Other Bad Ideas,” “Fiduciary Malpractice: The Sustainable Investment Movement,” and “Why CO2 Emissions Are Not Creating A Climate Crisis.”

...U.S. officials...included White House Special Assistant Brooke Rollins, Interior Department Assistant Secretary Joe Balash, and Jason Funes, an assistant in the office of external affairs at Interior. They praised the administration’s moves to clear the way for oil industry activity, and steered clear of commenting on climate change.

But their presence gave climate change doubters at the conference a boost...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-climatechange/at-america-first-energy-con...

Talk about pissing away taxpayers money, I would like to see how much time was spent at the “flat earth convention “ as opposed to vacationing about New Orleans!

Can rate hikes for insurance be far behind?

Actuaries Climate Index Shows Growth in Climate Extremes
Todd Westcott | August 14, 2018

The latest Actuaries Climate Index data, reported by organizations representing the actuarial profession in Canada and the United States, showed that the five-year moving average of climate extremes across the two countries reached a new, record high in autumn 2017... (See graph for inflection point -- 1991? 1995?)

...also developing a second index, the Actuaries Climate Risk Index, to measure correlations between changes in the frequency of extreme events as measured by the index and economic losses, mortality, and injuries.

https://www.watercanada.net/actuaries-climate-index-shows-growth-in-climate-extr...

Earth will enter an abnormally warm period from 2018-2022
Isabella O'Malley | August 17, 2018

Five of the warmest years on record have happened since 2010, and the cooling fluctuations in the global climate that have helped us buffer climate change's roasting temperatures are wrapping up and making way for the years 2018 to 2022 to be abnormally warm.

THE NEXT FIVE YEARS WILL HAVE RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES

...Some of the hottest annual temperatures on record happened during this period, which is why this new study is alarming - the increased carbon emissions coupled with the warming effects from changes in the Earth's internal variability will shatter our recent records and will force the world to adapt and mitigate these unparalleled conditions.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/earth-will-enter-an-abnormally-w...
________________________________________________________________________

Florian Sévellec & Sybren S. Drijfhout. 2018. A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018-2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend. Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 3024 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05442-8

Abstract

In a changing climate, there is an ever-increasing societal demand for accurate and reliable interannual predictions. Accurate and reliable interannual predictions of global temperatures are key for determining the regional climate change impacts that scale with global temperature, such as precipitation extremes, severe droughts, or intense hurricane activity, for instance. However, the chaotic nature of the climate system limits prediction accuracy on such timescales....The post-1998 global warming hiatus is well predicted. For 2018–2022, the probabilistic forecast indicates a warmer than normal period, with respect to the forced trend. This will temporarily reinforce the long-term global warming trend. The coming warm period is associated with an increased likelihood of intense to extreme temperatures....

Introduction

... the internal variability of the climate. This variability, because of its dominance over the forced trend on interannual to decadal timescales, is at the heart of interannual climate prediction... Moreover, since volcanic eruptions are unpredictable by essence and aerosol and greenhouse gas emissions depend on socio-economic choices, further improvement of climate predictions will mainly occur through better, more accurate predictions of the internal variability. This conclusion is also true for the global-mean sea surface temperature (SST) studied here....

Discussion

...Overall, PROCAST (PRObabilistic foreCAST system) suggests that the current warm anomaly recorded in GMT (global-mean surface air temperature) and SST (sea surface temperature) is expected to continue for up to the next 5 years (Table 1), and even possibly for longer for SST...

New Trump power plant plan would release hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into the air
Juliet Eilperin | August 18, 2018 at 4:41 PM

President Trump plans this week to unveil a proposal that would empower states to establish emission standards for coal-fired power plants rather than speeding their retirement — a major overhaul of the Obama administration’s signature climate policy. The plan, which is projected to release at least 12 times the amount of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere compared with the Obama rule over the next decade, comes as scientists have warned that the world will experience increasingly dire climate effects absent a major cut in carbon emissions.

...The new proposal, which will be subject to a 60-day comment period, could have enormous implications for dozens of aging coal-fired power plants across the country. The EPA estimates that the measure will affect more than 300 U.S. plants, providing companies with an incentive to keep coal plants in operation rather than replacing them with cleaner natural gas or renewable energy projects.

...the Obama administration’s Clean Power Plan would have reduced carbon dioxide emissions by about 19 percent during that same time frame. That is equivalent to taking 75 million cars out of circulation and preventing more than 365 million metric tons of carbon dioxide from entering the atmosphere...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/new-trump-power-plant-pla...

ETA_________________________________________________

Trump administration says conserving oil is no longer an economic imperative for U.S.
Associated Press · Aug 19, 2018

Conserving oil is no longer an economic imperative for the U.S., the Trump administration declares in a major new policy statement that threatens to undermine decades of government campaigns for gas-thrifty cars and other conservation programs.

The position was outlined in a memo released last month in support of the administration's proposal to relax fuel mileage standards. The government released the memo online this month without fanfare.

Growth of natural gas and other alternatives to petroleum has reduced the need for imported oil, which "in turn affects the need of the nation to conserve energy," the Energy Department said. It also cites the now decade-old fracking revolution that has unlocked U.S. shale oil reserves, giving "the United States more flexibility than in the past to use our oil resources with less concern."

With the memo, the administration is formally challenging old justifications for conservation — even congressionally prescribed ones, as with the mileage standards. The memo made no mention of climate change. Transportation is the single largest source of climate-changing emissions.

President Donald Trump has questioned the existence of climate change, embraced the notion of "energy dominance" as a national goal, and called for easing what he calls burdensome regulation of oil, gas and coal, including repealing the Obama Clean Power Plan...

https://www.mprnews.org/story/2018/08/19/trump-administration-says-conserving-oi...

More than 2 billion people lack safe drinking water. That number will only grow.
Alexandra Witze | August 16, 2018

As populations grow and climate change shrinks freshwater stores, water scarcity takes center stage

...A major United Nations report, released in June, shows that the world is not on track to meet a U.N. goal: to bring safe water and sanitation to everyone by 2030. And by 2050, half the world’s population may no longer have safe water...

Citations

United Nations. SDG 6 Synthesis Report 2018 on Water and Sanitation. Published June 2018. http://www.unwater.org/publication_categories/sdg-6-synthesis-report-2018-on-wat...

X. Gao et al. The impact of climate change policy on the risk of water stress in southern and eastern Asia. Environmental Research Letters. Vol. 13, published June 19, 2018. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaca93.

P. D’Odorico et al. The global food-energy-water nexus. Reviews of Geophysics. Published April 20, 2018. doi:10.1029/2017RG000591.

WaterAid. The Water Gap: The State of the World’s Water 2018. Published March 2018. https://washmatters.wateraid.org/publications/the-water-gap-state-of-the-worlds-...

M. Flörke, C. Schneider & R.I. McDonald. Water competition between cities and agriculture driven by climate change and urban growth. Nature Sustainability. Vol. 1, published January 8, 2018. doi:10.1038/s41893-017-0006-8.

Food and Agriculture Organization. AQUASTAT database. http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/water_use/index.stm

International Energy Agency. World Energy Outlook 2016: Water-energy nexus. Published 2016. http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/WorldEnergyOutlook2...

F. Gassert et al. Aqueduct Global Maps 2.1: constructing decision-relevant global water risk indicators. World Resources Institute working paper, published April 2015. http://wriorg.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/Aqueduct_Global_Maps_2.1-Constructing...

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/future-will-people-have-enough-water-live

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As waters rise, coastal megacities like Mumbai face catastrophe
Katy Daigle, Maanvi Singh | August 15, 2018

Neglecting to prepare defenses against flooding from rising seas, storm surges or torrential rains risks social and economic chaos

...Many of Asia’s fast-growing coastal megacities, with populations of 10 million or more, are vulnerable to multiple flood threats. Mumbai, the Bangladeshi capital of Dhaka and Manila in the Philippines, among others, face a future of heavier rainfall and higher storm surges. Manila and others, like Indonesia’s Jakarta, are also sinking fast. Some spots in Jakarta are sinking at a rate of 20 to 28 centimeters a year.

...Massive structural engineering is not the answer. Many scientists suggest that cities lighten their burden on the land by maintaining natural coastlines, protecting sand dunes and preserving forests or even growing more of them. At the least, cities should refrain from making development decisions that will make things worse, such as paving over water-absorbent soils or building on natural floodplains. Governments can also improve storm drains, offer voluntary relocation packages or even consider introducing ferries rather than trying to raise or maintain existing roads.

...There are cities like Bangkok, the capital of Thailand, that may be just too vulnerable. Built atop an estuary feeding into the Gulf of Thailand, the city — also sinking — is on track to go mega by 2030. “It wouldn’t shock me if they had to move the capital in 20 years,” (Amrita Daniere of the University of Toronto, codirector of the Urban Climate Resilience in South East Asia Partnership) says...

...Mumbai “is an extremely important city in terms of the economic wealth it generates,” says (Mumbai-based environmental economist Archana Patankar). The city’s economy rivals that of some developed nations in Europe. Its stock exchange is valued at around $2.2 trillion — almost twice the entire GDP of Mexico or Australia. Its Hindi-language Bollywood entertainment industry generates billions of dollars in global revenues each year. Not enough work has been done to assess how the city’s economy will be impacted, she says...

Citations

A. Shepherd et al. Mass balance of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 1992 to 2017. Nature. Published June 13, 2018. doi:10.1038/s41586-018-0179.

Sean Vitousek et al. “Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise.” Scientific Reports. May 18, 2017.

E. Larour et al. Should coastal planners have concern over where land ice is melting? Science Advances. Vol. 3, November 15, 2017. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1700537

S. Vitousek et al. Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise. Scientific Reports, Published online May 18, 2017. doi:10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7

S. Hallegatte et al. Future flood losses in major coastal cities. Nature Climate Change. Published online August 18, 2013. Doi: 10:1038/NCLIMATE1979

S. Dasgupta et al. The impact of sea level rise on developing countries: a comparative analysis. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4136. February 2007. doi:10.1596/1813-9450-4136

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/waters-rise-coastal-megacities-mumbai-face-c...

>56 margd: New Trump power plant plan would release hundreds of millions of tons of CO2 into the air, etc.

As bad as the other issues are, their outcomes pale in comparison to virtually irreversible changes to our climate, biomes, civilization and human beings, all life forms--IMHO. Politicians who walk the talk will have my vote:

What Trump's Doing to the Planet Is Criminal (2:37)
Senator Bernie Sanders | Aug 17, 2018

What Trump and his friends in the fossil fuel industry are doing is criminal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0CKwwJPbA8

Melting Permafrost Below Arctic Lakes Is Even More Dangerous to the Climate, NASA Warns
Meghan Bartels | August 18, 2018

Scientists have worried for years that rising temperatures will free carbon trapped in frozen soil in the Arctic, accelerating the pace of climate change — but now they believe abrupt thawing below lakes is even more dangerous.

...Here's the problem: When permanently frozen dirt melts, the bacteria trapped inside it become active again, munch through whatever organic material is in reach, and produce carbon dioxide and methane, which are both powerful greenhouse gases

But when that happens below thermokarst lakes, the process is even grimmer because the water at the surface speeds up the melting below. The released gases, built with carbon atoms between 2,000 and 43,000 years old, quickly rise up through the lake and into the atmosphere.

"Within decades you can get very deep thaw-holes, meters to tens of meters of vertical thaw," Walter Anthony said in the statement. "So you’re flash thawing the permafrost under these lakes. And we have very easily measured ancient greenhouse gases coming out."

Moreover, the team also found that this abrupt thawing was still a concern even under a scenario in which humans tried to rein in their greenhouse-gas production and slow climate change. And, of course, the more permafrost melts, the faster the melting continues — making all this grim news indeed...

https://www.space.com/41533-abrupt-permafrost-melting-carbon-climate-impact.html

____________________________________________________________________

Katey Walter Anthony et al. 2018. 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes. Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 3262 (2018) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-05738-9

Abstract

Permafrost carbon feedback (PCF) modeling has focused on gradual thaw of near-surface permafrost leading to enhanced carbon dioxide and methane emissions that accelerate global climate warming. These state-of-the-art land models have yet to incorporate deeper, abrupt thaw in the PCF. Here we use model data, supported by field observations, radiocarbon dating, and remote sensing, to show that methane and carbon dioxide emissions from abrupt thaw beneath thermokarst lakes will more than double radiative forcing from circumpolar permafrost-soil carbon fluxes this century. Abrupt thaw lake emissions are similar under moderate and high representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5), but their relative contribution to the PCF is much larger under the moderate warming scenario. Abrupt thaw accelerates mobilization of deeply frozen, ancient carbon, increasing 14C-depleted permafrost soil carbon emissions by ~125–190% compared to gradual thaw alone. These findings demonstrate the need to incorporate abrupt thaw processes in earth system models for more comprehensive projection of the PCF this century.

This article on using lichen species and density as an indicator of climate change caught my eye, as, anecdotally, I've noticed more lichen and spent more time controlling it than ever before. Here in Great Lakes area, lichen has really taken hold on bio-film on composite deck, asphalt roof shingles, headstones in two family cemeteries, a favourite tree, some boulders near house. Good, I guess, in that lichen grows best where low air pollution. However, Great Lakes are supposed to be experiencing more evaporation with increased temps and decreased ice cover, so increased humidity (climate change) might also be a factor, I wonder?

http://thegrindstone.ca/to-what-may-i-lichen-thee/

Some Arctic Ground No Longer Freezing—Even in Winter
Craig Welch | August 20, 2018

New data from two Arctic sites suggest some surface layers are no longer freezing. If that continues, greenhouse gases from permafrost could accelerate climate change.

...(Nikita Zimov, like his father, Sergey Zimov, has spent years running a research station that tracks climate change in the rapidly warming Russian Far East) say unusually high snowfall this year worked like a blanket, trapping excess heat in the ground. They found sections 30 inches deep—soils that typically freeze before Christmas—that had stayed damp and mushy all winter. For the first time in memory, ground that insulates deep Arctic permafrost simply did not freeze in winter.

...In ice-rich soils, such as in Siberia, the ground may slump. That can buckle roads and buildings and cause ice cellars to collapse. Such depressions also alter the landscape by forming troughs and bowls where snow can accumulate, making the ground even warmer in winter. Those troughs can fill with rain and snowmelt, forming new wetlands and tundra lakes, both of which expel large amounts of methane.

And the movement of all this water, above and below ground, can transport large amounts of heat, hastening thawing. Permafrost collapse can begin feeding on itself, releasing more greenhouse gases, which fuel more warming.

...scientists have long known that loss of sea ice and rising temperatures will lead to more Arctic snow over time, which models are able to incorporate. But those same simulations are far less reliable when trying to track the cascading shifts in soil types, surface vegetation, melting ice, and the flow of water that will come from rising temperatures and all that snow, all of which could substantially hasten permafrost thaw.

...By the time some changes are detected, a significant transition may be underway, (David Lawrence, a permafrost modeler with the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder) says. That means the public and policymakers may not grasp the real risks.

"Most models don't project major carbon releases until beyond 2100," (Katey Walter Anthony, associate professor at the University of Alaska) says. That may be the case. But it's also possible, she says, that they "could actually happen in my children's lifetime—or my own."

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/environment/2018/08/news-arctic-permafrost-ma...

So many potential tipping points looming--permafrost release of CO2, loss of boreal forest, failure of North Atlantic current, speeding Pacific abyssal circulation--so little leadership...

How Warming Could Speed up the Sea
Gloria Dickie | August 16, 2018

As the planet warmed at the end of the last ice age, the abyssal Pacific circulation kicked into high gear.

At the end of the last ice age, from around 19,000 to 9,000 years ago, the climate was warming rapidly. Prompted by a subtle shift in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational axis, more sunlight hit the northern hemisphere in summer, kicking off a global thaw. According to new research, this warming caused the rate of the deep-water current flowing between Antarctica and the Gulf of Alaska, known as the abyssal Pacific circulation, to speed up by two to three times.

Before the warming, during the chill of the last ice age, it took roughly 2,000 years for water to sink near Antarctica, travel on the bottom of the sea all the way up to the North Pacific, rise, and return. New data gleaned from isotopic analysis of seafloor sediment cores collected from the Gulf of Alaska suggests that during the speed-up, this same journey took only 500 to 600 years. This sudden surge in the pace of the currents created a rapid stirring motion in the deep waters around Antarctica.

Like removing the lid from a shaken soda bottle, the mixing caused vast quantities of carbon dioxide to fizz into the atmosphere. Over the next 8,000 years, the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide increased by about 80 parts per million, which spurred even more warming and ultimately melted the huge ice caps blanketing North America. The carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere today is roughly 400 parts per million total, making this a sizable leap.

Right now, the Southern Ocean is a carbon sink, absorbing carbon from the atmosphere rather than spitting it out. But if the circulation were to accelerate as it did sometime between 18,000 and 11,000 years ago, it could begin to emit carbon, which turns into carbon dioxide at the surface.

...(Alan Mix, a paleoclimatologist at Oregon State University and coauthor of the study). “The Paris climate accord worked out a budget of how much carbon we might be allowed to emit and still avoid really dangerous warning.” If carbon from the deep sea were to enter the atmosphere, it could tip the scale, counteracting any gains made through smart policy or technology.

https://www.hakaimagazine.com/news/how-warming-could-speed-up-the-sea/

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Arctic’s strongest sea ice breaks up for first time on record
Jonathan Watts | Tue 21 Aug 2018

Usually frozen waters open up twice this year in phenomenon scientists described as scary

...The oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic has started to break up, opening waters north of Greenland that are normally frozen, even in summer.

This phenomenon – which has never been recorded before – has occurred twice this year due to warm winds and a climate-change driven heatwave in the northern hemisphere.

...The sea off the north coast of Greenland is normally so frozen that it was referred to, until recently, as “the last ice area” because it was assumed that this would be the final northern holdout against the melting effects of a hotter planet.

...As well as reducing ice cover, the ocean intrusion raises concerns of feedbacks, which could tip the Earth towards a hothouse state.

Freakish Arctic temperatures have alarmed climate scientists since the beginning of the year. During the sunless winter, a heatwave raised concerns that the polar vortex may be eroding.

This includes the Gulf Stream, which is at its weakest level in 1,600 years due to melting Greenland ice and ocean warming. With lower circulation of water and air, weather systems tend to linger longer.

A dormant hot front has been blamed for record temperatures in Lapland and forest fires in Siberia, much of Scandinavia and elsewhere in the Arctic circle.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/aug/21/arctics-strongest-sea-ice-breaks-u...

>62 margd: quote from"At the end of the last ice age, from around 19,000 to 9,000 years ago, the climate was warming rapidly. Prompted by a subtle shift in the tilt of the Earth’s rotational axis, more sunlight hit the northern hemisphere in summer, kicking off a global thaw. According to new research, this warming caused the rate of the deep-water current flowing between Antarctica and the Gulf of Alaska, known as the abyssal Pacific circulation, to speed up by two to three times."

As I remember it from a 1970's Oceanography course the abyssal, deep-water currents are where the ocean waters picked up most of their nutrients/minerals as they traveled across the ocean floor. Of course that was before human pollution started contributing so much but it seems there would be more biological activity where ever the upwelling is. I think these currents were/are a main source of iron/Fe which is a limiting factor in deep/mid ocean life. What sort of life might be stimulated is hard to imagine when the temperatures change - could be green scum for a few million years.

Also, jellyfish...don't need calcium...

I tried jellyfish once in a Chinese restaurant. Prefer the taste and texture of vertebrate fish...

A spot of good news with the bad?

Global tree cover has increased 7% over the last 35 years
Noel Kirkpatrick | August 14, 2018

...the overall percentage of trees on the planet has actually increased over a 35-year period by 7 percent.

...Between 1982 and 2016, trees grew to cover more of the Earth than before 1982, some 864,869 square miles (2.24 million square kilometers), or about three times the size of Texas.

...we have still lost a significant amount of tropical tree cover over that same period. The overall growth offsets the loss, but it's still a loss from a key environmental area.

...(increased) tree cover in higher altitudes...Warming in areas around the Arctic, like northeastern Siberia, western Alaska and northern Quebec, allowed for wood vegetation to grow where it previously hadn't.

...researchers estimate that some 60 percent of land change over the 35-year period was connected directly to human activity (ag, forestry, urban) while the remaining 40 percent was caused by indirect agents, like climate change...

https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/wilderness-resources/blogs/global-tree-cover-i...

ETA_________________________________________________________________

Xiao-Peng Song et al. 2018. Global land change from 1982 to 2016. Nature (Letter). Published: 08 August 2018
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0411-9

Abstract
...We show that—contrary to the prevailing view that forest area has declined globally5—tree cover has increased by 2.24 million km2 (+7.1% relative to the 1982 level). This overall net gain is the result of a net loss in the tropics being outweighed by a net gain in the extratropics. Global bare ground cover has decreased by 1.16 million km2 (−3.1%), most notably in agricultural regions in Asia. Of all land changes, 60% are associated with direct human activities and 40% with indirect drivers such as climate change. Land-use change exhibits regional dominance, including tropical deforestation and agricultural expansion, temperate reforestation or afforestation, cropland intensification and urbanization. Consistently across all climate domains, montane systems have gained tree cover and many arid and semi-arid ecosystems have lost vegetation cover. The mapped land changes and the driver attributions reflect a human-dominated Earth system...

>65 margd: Interesting link. We sometimes need a bit of good news, after all the bad. I did a bit of further reading as well, through the linked articles.

This Chilling NASA Image Shows How Much of Earth Is on Fire Right Now
JACINTA BOWLER | 24 AUG 2018

We have no words.

...aren't necessarily all wildfires...

...Africa is actually the big one, with fires burning across large swaths of the southern parts of the continent.

...Australia, and other areas in the Pacific are also suffering from wildfires and bushfires despite being in winter right now.

...Cassandra Mosely explains at The Conversation, there are a number of reasons why wildfires are getting worse, including ..."climate change, past forest and fire management practices, housing development, increased focus on community protection and the professionalization of wildfire management"...

"Fire seasons are growing longer in the United States and worldwide. According to the Forest Service, climate change has expanded the wildfire season by an average of 78 days per year since 1970."...

https://www.sciencealert.com/this-nasa-worldview-image-shows-that-much-of-earth-...

ETA: https://www.space.com/41622-nasa-earth-dust-smoke-aerosol-map.html

The Victims of Climate Change Are Already Here
Vann R. Newkirk II | Aug 22, 2018

With a new global summit approaching, communities in the southern United States are calling attention to the disaster scenarios they currently face.

...One of the major initiatives put together as President Donald Trump began to withdraw the White House from climate leadership is the Global Climate Action Summit, which will take place in September...A collective of non-state actors organized the event, (Nick Nuttall, the summit’s spokesman) says, with the goal of “bringing together leaders from state and local governments, business, and citizens from around the world to demonstrate how the tide has turned in the race against climate change.”

...The suffering caused by a warming and more temperamental environment is already happening, and it isn’t distributed equally, nor will it be...vulnerable populations are already in trouble.

...More than a dozen local environmental groups from coast to coast have organized the Freedom to Breathe Tour, where journalists, activists, and environmental-justice experts will present vulnerable communities with their case for swift and dramatic action on climate change. The 21-day tour, which begins August 25 and will traverse the entirety of the American South and Southwest, will illustrate the current climate realities for communities of color in the nation’s most marginalized places...

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/08/climate-change-global-clima...

Big oil asks government to protect its Texas facilities from climate change
August 22, 2018, 3:04 PM

PORT ARTHUR, Texas -- As the nation plans new defenses against the more powerful storms and higher tides expected from climate change, one project stands out: an ambitious proposal to build a nearly 60-mile "spine" of concrete seawalls, earthen barriers, floating gates and steel levees on the Texas Gulf Coast.

Like other oceanfront projects, this one would protect homes, delicate ecosystems and vital infrastructure, but it also has another priority: to shield some of the crown jewels of the petroleum industry, which is blamed for contributing to global warming and now wants the federal government to build safeguards against the consequences of it.

... a stretch of coastline that runs from the Louisiana border to industrial enclaves south of Houston that are home to one of the world's largest concentrations of petrochemical facilities, including most of Texas' 30 refineries, which represent 30 percent of the nation's refining capacity.

Texas is seeking at least $12 billion for the full coastal spine, with nearly all of it coming from public funds. Last month, the government fast-tracked an initial $3.9 billion for three separate, smaller storm barrier projects that would specifically protect oil facilities.

That followed Hurricane Harvey...Many Republicans argue that the Texas oil projects belong at the top of Washington's spending list.

...the idea of taxpayers around the country paying to protect refineries worth billions, and in a state where top politicians still dispute climate change's validity, doesn't sit well with some...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/texas-protect-oil-facilities-from-climate-change-co...

ETA_________________________________________________________________________

In contrast:

EPA analysis of its own new climate proposal: thousands of people will die
Umair Irfan | Aug 21, 2018

The Trump administration is proposing to replace Obama’s Clean Power Plan with a much weaker rule...

https://www.vox.com/2018/8/21/17763916/epa-clean-power-plan-affordable-clean-ene...

Temperature Anomalies by Country 1880-2017 (animated chart)
Antti Lipponen (Research scientist at Finnish Meteorological Institute) | Aug 25, 2018

...based on NASA GISTEMP data.

https://www.flickr.com/photos/150411108@N06/43350961005/

Rising Risks: 'Climate gentrification' is changing Miami real estate values – for better and worse

Article of acute concern to the 1% ers. Quote from the above, entire article not that gripping unless you are into real estate:

"A modern glass home sits on the edge of the water in Miami Beach. The ground-level master suite has a soaking tub that looks out to the ocean, and the bedroom's glass doors allow the owner to roll out of the sheets and onto the yacht. It is listed for sale at $25 million.

Another Miami home sits on a garbage-strewn street in Little Haiti, about five miles inland. Its owner can walk out the front door and see a dead chicken in the street. It is listed for sale at $559,000, but some experts claim it is a better investment than $25 million mansion."

Miami Will Be Underwater Soon. Its Drinking Water Could Go First
Christopher Flavelle | Aug 29, 2018

The city has another serious water problem.

...Miami-Dade is built on the Biscayne Aquifer, 4,000 square miles of unusually shallow and porous limestone whose tiny air pockets are filled with rainwater and rivers running from the swamp to the ocean. The aquifer and the infrastructure that draws from it, cleans its water, and keeps it from overrunning the city combine to form a giant but fragile machine. Without this abundant source of fresh water, made cheap by its proximity to the surface, this hot, remote city could become uninhabitable.

Climate change is slowly pulling that machine apart. Barring a stupendous reversal in greenhouse gas emissions, the rising Atlantic will cover much of Miami by the end of this century. The economic effects will be devastating: Zillow Inc. estimates that six feet of sea-level rise would put a quarter of Miami’s homes underwater, rendering $200 billion of real estate worthless. But global warming poses a more immediate danger: The permeability that makes the aquifer so easily accessible also makes it vulnerable...

...The questions hanging over Miami and the rest of Southeast Florida are how long it can keep its water safe, and at what cost. As the region struggles with more visible climate problems, including increasingly frequent flooding and this summer’s toxic algae blooms, the risks to the aquifer grow, and they’re all the more insidious for being out of sight. If Miami-Dade can’t protect its water supply, whether it can handle the other manifestations of climate change won’t matter...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2018-08-29/miami-s-other-water-problem

2018 fall, winter weather expected to drastically influence consumer spending in US
Mark Puleo | August 30, 2018

...If quarter three has a negative weather influence, it will mark the fourth straight quarter in which food retail sales number were hampered by environmental factors. From the third quarter of 2012 until the third quarter of 2016, the food retail industry endured 17 consecutive quarters with a negative weather influence.

Meanwhile, in the building and garden equipment sales industry, the opposite has played out. The AccuWeather model predicted a positive weather influence in quarter three and quarter four, similar to the prior two quarters in 2018. This would mark the first calendar year of four positive weather influence quarters since 2007...

...(AccuWeather Lead Long-Rage Meteorologist Paul) Pastelok also added that the arrival of El Niño could bring milder winter weather to the East and Gulf Coast, lowering the chance of heavy snowstorms, and thus, potentially dampening fourth quarter sales for businesses relying on selling snow-related products...

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/weather-influence-to-impact-third-an...

This seems to be a global tool:

How Much Hotter Is Your Hometown Than When You Were Born?

As the world warms because of human-induced climate change, most of us can expect to see more days when temperatures hit 32 degrees Celsius (90 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher. See how your hometown has changed so far and how much hotter it may get:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/08/30/climate/how-much-hotter-is-your-h...

Dramatic vegetation changes in the past hint at dire future
August 31, 2018 by Will Wright, Australian National University
https://phys.org/news/2018-08-vegetation-hint-dire-future.html
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Connor Nolan et al. Past and future global transformation of terrestrial ecosystems under climate change, Science (2018). DOI: 10.1126/science.aan5360 http://science.sciencemag.org/content/361/6405/920

Abstract

Impacts of global climate change on terrestrial ecosystems are imperfectly constrained by ecosystem models and direct observations. Pervasive ecosystem transformations occurred in response to warming and associated climatic changes during the last glacial-to-interglacial transition, which was comparable in magnitude to warming projected for the next century under high-emission scenarios. We reviewed 594 published paleoecological records to examine compositional and structural changes in terrestrial vegetation since the last glacial period and to project the magnitudes of ecosystem transformations under alternative future emission scenarios. Our results indicate that terrestrial ecosystems are highly sensitive to temperature change and suggest that, without major reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere, terrestrial ecosystems worldwide are at risk of major transformation, with accompanying disruption of ecosystem services* and impacts on biodiversity.

*Ecosystem services are grouped into four broad categories: provisioning, such as the production of food and water; regulating, such as the control of climate and disease; supporting, such as nutrient cycles and oxygen production; and cultural, such as spiritual and recreational benefits. (Wikipedia)

Engineering the climate could cost us the earth
Gareth Dale | 30th August 2018

...In 2011 (Royal Society) declared that planetary-scale engineering interventions could be “the only option” for tackling a climate emergency.

...promising a technofix, with no need for democratic engagement, geoengineering is music to the ears of authoritarians, magnates, and government agencies.

...Devotees of geoengineering accuse sceptics of a fear of ‘science,’ or of grand projects and decisive action. These charges are farcical.

It is geoengineering projects that are designed to avoid the grand and bold decisions based on proven science: to sequester carbon through afforestation, to ramp up renewable energy and agroecological farming, to weatherise buildings, forcefully regulate energy efficiency and materials use, reduce beef and dairy consumption, and re-engineer transport systems from aviation and cars to bicycles, public transport, and ride-sharing.

Scepticism towards geoengineering is itself scientific, not only in its critique of the techniques themselves and their propensity to backfire, but also in that it subjects science—as a social institution—to critical analysis.

...a politics capable of negotiating the rapids of environmental change will require democratic negotiation and collective action, with the exercise of “collective restraint where necessary” and mobilisation for “shared, sustainable abundance where possible.”

How these struggles play out in the coming decade will, given climate feedbacks and tipping points, powerfully affect human beings (if any exist) in half a million years.

If humans have not perished by then, how will they see us? ...

https://theecologist.org/2018/aug/30/engineering-climate-could-cost-us-earth

Audubon's Birds and Climate Change Report
Shrinking and shifting ranges could imperil nearly half of U.S. birds within this century

A Field Guide to a Warmer Future

Audubon scientists have used hundreds of thousands of citizen-science observations and sophisticated climate models to predict how birds in the U.S. and Canada will react to climate change. Our work defines the climate conditions birds need to survive, then maps where those conditions will be found in the future as the Earth’s climate responds to increased greenhouse gases.

It’s the broadest and most detailed study of its kind, and it’s the closest thing we have to a field guide to the future of North American birds.
Explore the Impacts

Audubon’s findings classify 314 species—nearly half of all North American birds—as severely threatened by global warming. Our interactive maps show how each of these at-risk birds’ potential ranges could expand, contract, or shift in both summer and winter as our climate changes. (in a matter of decades)

Use our geographical search to see how climate could affect birds near you.
(Search by flyway/state/province and/or species)

http://climate.audubon.org/

On the coast, residents depending on home equity for retirement, and lower income folks in higher-elevation communities lose to "sophisticated" buyers:

Sea level rise already causing billions in home value to disappear
Andrew Freedman | Aug 23, 2018

...The bottom line: According to a new report by the nonprofit First Street Foundation, housing values in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut dropped $6.7 billion from 2005 to 2017 due to flooding related to sea level rise. Combined with their prior analysis of 5 southeastern coastal states with $7.4 billion in lost home value, the total loss in 8 states since 2005 has been $14.1 billion.

...billions in value disappearing as investors wake up to the systemic risk.

...so-called "sophisticated buyers," which are buyers of second homes or homes for investment purposes, are factoring in a steeper discount rate due to rising sea level concerns than buyers who then live in those homes as their primary residence and rely on that equity for retirement income...

https://www.axios.com/sea-level-rise-costing-billions-in-home-prices-7920a7a8-8d...

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Rising Risks: 'Climate gentrification' is changing Miami real estate values – for better and worse
Diana Olick and Erica Posse | 29 Aug 2018

A new Harvard study claims climate change is altering home values both on the coast and inland, coining the term, "climate gentrification."

"Higher elevation properties are essentially worth more now, and increasingly will be worth more in the future," according to Harvard's Jesse Keenan.

Universities, climate research groups and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration have made dire predictions of sea-level rise in Miami...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/29/climate-gentrification-is-changing-miami-real-es...

Melting glaciers are triggering the world's biggest tsunamis (e.g., Alaska and British Columbia)
Emily Chung | Sep 06, 2018

...of the 14 tsunamis in the past century that had a peak height greater than 50 metres, only one was caused by an earthquake. (The 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami.) Ten were caused by landslides into fjords or lakes in glaciated mountains.

...climate change is making landslides and tsunamis more frequent, destabilizing mountainsides in three ways:

Glaciers that filled up valleys, pushing up against the valley walls, are melting, leaving the rubble of those walls unsupported.

Permafrost and ice that glues the rubble together is melting.

When glaciers melt and retreat, they leave behind deep bodies of water, a condition that can help generate tsunamis.

"What we've learned is these hazards are increasing in their frequency, and in some cases, they're increasing in their size."

In fact, it's possible to have landslide-triggered tsunamis without the presence of glaciers at all, even far from the coast, said Dan Shugar (member of the research team, who is a University of Washington Tacoma assistant professor)...glacial lakes in B.C., the Yukon and Canada's Far North, where such landslides have or could occur, and where the risk is also increasing with climate change.

"When you combine steep topography with water," he said, "there's a pretty big hazard."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/landslide-tsunamis-climate-change-1.48117

________________________________________________________________

Bretwood Higman eta al. 2018. The 2015 landslide and tsunami in Taan Fiord, Alaska. Scientific Reports volume 8, Article number: 12993 (2018) | https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-30475-w

Abstract

Glacial retreat in recent decades has exposed unstable slopes and allowed deep water to extend beneath some of those slopes. Slope failure at the terminus of Tyndall Glacier on 17 October 2015 sent 180 million tons of rock into Taan Fiord, Alaska. The resulting tsunami reached elevations as high as 193 m, one of the highest tsunami runups ever documented worldwide. Precursory deformation began decades before failure, and the event left a distinct sedimentary record, showing that geologic evidence can help understand past occurrences of similar events, and might provide forewarning. The event was detected within hours through automated seismological techniques, which also estimated the mass and direction of the slide - all of which were later confirmed by remote sensing. Our field observations provide a benchmark for modeling landslide and tsunami hazards. Inverse and forward modeling can provide the framework of a detailed understanding of the geologic and hazards implications of similar events. Our results call attention to an indirect effect of climate change that is increasing the frequency and magnitude of natural hazards near glaciated mountains.

Scientists say nature should be ‘no-brainer’ for climate action
Jamey Anderson | January 2, 2018

Beyond solar panels, electric cars and efficient homes, meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement will require a largely ignored climate solution: nature.

...study published in October (2017) in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences compiled the first comprehensive estimate of nature’s potential role in mitigation climate change, putting the figure at 37 percent. And in research published in December (2017) in the journal Nature, a team of scientists found that land use has historically been a larger emitter of carbon to the atmosphere than was previously known.

According to a third study published in September (2017) in the journal Environmental Research Letters, even immediately halting all fossil fuel use would not be enough to avoid dangerous climate change if deforestation continues unchanged.

In sum, the research points to an elevated role for ecosystem restoration in addressing climate change, says (Will) Turner (Nature 2017)...

https://blog.conservation.org/2018/01/scientists-say-nature-should-be-no-brainer...

Solar panels and wind turbines could moderate climate at the edge of the Sahara and reduce desertification.

Large-scale wind and solar power 'could green the Sahara' http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-45435593

>81 2wonderY: I think in temperate areas, wind turbines hold off frost in the fall by churning the night air. Hope in the Sahara at least, developers can site, design, and operate wind turbines to spare migrating birds. Amazing feat to cross the Mediterranean and then to survive the desert!
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The Melting Arctic Is a Real-Time Horror Story — Why Doesn’t Anyone Care?
Jeff Goodell | Aug 29, 2018

This summer’s epic wildfires and other extreme weather events have a root cause

...In recent years, the Arctic has been heating up faster than any other place on the planet. (Last winter, temperatures in the Arctic were 45 degrees Fahrenheit above normal). Last week, German climate scientist Stefan Rahmstorf wrote an excellent piece (https://www.politico.eu/article/climate-change-gobal-warming-freak-weather-explained/) explaining why the warming Arctic is not only causing ice to melt, but changing the weather dynamics for the entire planet. “

...Rahmstorf argued, is that the jet stream — a band of high winds around the Northern Hemisphere that significantly influences our weather in the mid-latitudes — is changing. Researchers showed in 2015 that the jet stream has actually slowed down significantly in recent decades and undulates more. The cause is likely to be the warming of the Arctic, as the stream is driven by the temperature contrast between the tropics and the Arctic. Because this temperature difference is getting smaller and smaller, the jet stream is weakening and becoming less stable. “The weaker summer circulation means fewer weather changes, so the weather is becoming more persistent,” Rahmstorf wrote. (summer heat waves)

...(Also) when the Arctic is unusually warm, extreme winter weather is two-to-four times more likely in the eastern U.S. As Rahmstorf noted, “Climate change does not just mean that everything is gradually getting warmer. A certain wave pattern in the jet stream, meandering from north to south, settles for a long time and brings heat and drought or continuous rain, depending on where you are in this pattern. Such a persistent jet stream pattern has played an important role in the weather extremes of recent weeks, connecting the extremes around the Northern Hemisphere.”

...Another (consequence of a melting Arctic) is the thawing of permafrost, the vast realm of permanently (until now) frozen ground that lies beneath the snow and ice in the Arctic. Trapped in this frozen soil and vegetation is more than twice the carbon found in the atmosphere. As the permafrost thaws, microbes come to life and start eating the buried organic matter, which in turn releases CO2 and methane, a greenhouse gas that is 25 times as potent as CO2 (although shorter-lived). A 2014 study estimated that thawing permafrost could release around 120 gigatons of carbon into the atmosphere by 2100, which would contribute another .3 degrees Celsius of warming. And that may be a conservative estimate.

...One real but still-unquantifiable risk: long-frozen bacteria and viruses like anthrax and smallpox could emerge, triggering an epidemic that plays out like a climate change-driven remake of The Andromeda Strain.

...Think of the Arctic as our early warning system, a big screaming alarm that is alerting us to the fact that the planet we will live on tomorrow is nothing like the planet we lived on yesterday, and we better get ready...In our rapidly changing world, no place is too distant or too far away to matter. Like it or not, we are all in this together. When ice melts in the Arctic, the west burns.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/arctic-ice-melting-716647/

The Report, “Unlocking the Inclusive Growth Story of the 21st Century” including graphics and other materials, is available at www.newclimateeconomy.report/2018
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Press Release: Bold Climate Action Could Deliver US$26 Trillion to 2030, Finds Global Commission
News Article September 5, 2018
BOLD CLIMATE ACTION COULD DELIVER US$26 TRILLION TO 2030, FINDS GLOBAL COMMISSION

New report aims to galvanise action by economic and financial leaders in government and the private sector.

NEW YORK (September 5, 2018) — A major report released by the Global Commission on the Economy and Climate finds that we are significantly under-estimating the benefits of cleaner, climate-smart growth. Bold climate action could deliver at least US$26 trillion in economic benefits through to 2030, compared with business-as-usual.

The Report finds that over the last decade there has been tremendous technological and market progress driving the shift to a new climate economy. There are real benefits to be seen in terms of new jobs, economic savings, competitiveness and market opportunities, and improved wellbeing for people worldwide. Momentum is building behind this shift by a wide range of cities, governments, businesses, investors and others around the world, but it is not yet fast enough.

...The Report highlights opportunities in five key economic systems – energy, cities, food and land use, water, and industry. It demonstrates that ambitious action across these systems could deliver net economic gains compared with business-as-usual and:

Generate over 65 million new low-carbon jobs in 2030, equivalent to today's entire workforces of the UK and Egypt combined.
Avoid over 700,000 premature deaths from air pollution in 2030.
Generate, through just subsidy reform and carbon pricing, an estimated US$2.8 trillion in government revenues per year in 2030 - equivalent to the total GDP of India today - funds that can be used to invest in other public priorities or reduce distorting taxes.

The Global Commission calls on governments, business, and finance leaders to urgently prioritise actions on four fronts over the next 2-3 years:

Ramp up efforts on carbon pricing and move to mandatory disclosure of cliamte-related financial risks;
Accelerate investment in sustainable infrastructure;
Harness the power of the private sector and unleash innovation; and
Build a people-centred approach that shares the gains equitably and ensures that the transition is just.

“The purpose of this Report is to demonstrate how to accelerate the shift to this new growth path”, said Helen Mountford, Programme Director of the New Climate Economy and lead author of the Report. “It lays out the benefits of doing so, the challenges ahead, and the clear accelerators or actions, that can be taken to fully reap the rewards of stronger, cleaner, and more equitable growth.”...

https://newclimateeconomy.net/content/press-release-bold-climate-action-could-de...

"many communities might balk at shifting their infrastructure and agriculture" but doing so might preserve ecosystem services (such as buffering storm surge as seas rise...

Sea level rise doesn’t necessarily spell doom for coastal wetlands
Giving marshes room to expand inland can help preserve these crucial ecosystems
Carolyn Gramling | September 12, 2018

...rising seas will increase sediment buildup in some parts of coastal wetlands. This increased sediment, as well as human adaptations to allow wetlands to move inland as the seas rise, could allow the coastal fringes to not only survive but to increase their global area by as much as 60 percent...

Humans have good reason to preserve the world’s salt marshes and mangrove forests. These coastal zones, occupying the area from the coastline to the highest inland push of the tides, perform key services including filtering pollutants, pulling and storing carbon dioxide from the atmosphere and protecting communities from storms. Rising ocean waters, however, could drown these ecosystems. Current sea level rise projections suggest 20 percent to 90 percent of the world’s coastal wetlands could disappear, depending on how warm the planet gets and how high the seas rise...

People would need to make way by, for example, moving seawalls, rerouting coastal roads, giving up coastal agriculture or sacrificing seaside real estate...

...Factoring in sediment supply alone improved the picture somewhat: Even under the highest sea level rise scenario, global wetland losses dropped 30 percent from their current global area of 200,000 square kilometers, rather than 90 percent.

Introducing human adaptations proved even more significant, allowing coastal wetlands not only to survive, but to thrive. Making way for inland marsh migration could increase the total wetland area around the planet by as much as 60 percent, the team found.

Citations

M. Schuerch et al. Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea-level rise. Nature. Vol. 561, September 13, 2018, p. 231. doi: 10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0476-5.epdf

J. Woodruff. The future of tidal wetlands is in our hands. Nature. Vol. 561, September 13, 2018, p. 183. doi: 10.1038/d41586-018-06190-x. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-018-06190-x

https://www.sciencenews.org/article/sea-level-rise-doesnt-necessarily-spell-doom...

Same with islands and inland lakes as with mountains...

Global warming is pushing alpine animals to mountain peaks — and extinction, B.C. study warns
Wanyee LiStar | Sept. 10, 2018

...when there are so few individuals left in a population, normal threats like disease or an increase in predators can lead to extinction

“We know that small populations don’t survive over long periods of time. They eventually run out of room and go extinct.” (Ben Freeman, UBC, lead author*)

...species Indigenous to mountainous regions are being forced upslope by 100 metres for every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature...the world has risen by an average of one degree Celsius in the past 30 to 40 years...

https://www.thestar.com/vancouver/2018/09/10/global-warming-is-pushing-alpine-an...

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Benjamin G. Freeman et al. 2018. Expanding, shifting and shrinking: The impact of global warming on species’ elevational distributions. Global Ecology and Biogeography. 06 September 2018. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.12774. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/geb.12774.

Abstract

Species are responding to climate warming by shifting their distributions toward historically cooler regions, but the degree to which expansions at cool range limits are balanced by contractions at warm limits is unknown. We synthesized published data documenting shifts at species’ warm versus cool range limits along elevational gradients to (a) test classic ecological theory that predicts temperature more directly influences species’ cool range limits than their warm range limits, and (b) determine how warming‐associated shifts have changed the extent and area of species’ elevational distributions.

"The (EPA)’s own analysis found the proposed rules could pump hundreds of thousands more tons of methane into the atmosphere and add millions of dollars in agricultural, health-care and other costs to the U.S. economy because of climate change."

The Energy 202: Even the EPA acknowledges its new methane rule may be costly
Dino Grandoni | September 12, 2018

...The agency moved Monday to make it easier for drillers to meet requirements meant to curb leaks of that gas, methane, from oil and natural gas infrastructure. The rules are not final, and the public will have 60 days to comment* on the potential changes after they are published in the Federal Register

While the changes will save industry money, the agency’s own analysis found the proposed rules could pump hundreds of thousands more tons of the climate-warming gas into the atmosphere and add millions of dollars in agricultural, health-care and other costs to the U.S. economy because of climate change.

The potential changes would decrease the frequency of leak inspections, from twice a year to once per year, and eliminate a requirement that vent systems be certified by professional engineers...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/paloma/the-energy-202/2018/09/12/t...

* will appear on Regulations.gov (http://www.regulations.gov) in Docket No. EPA-HQ-OAR-2017-0483.

Amazing: Jerry Brown is on track to leave California with a surplus while fighting climate change. It can be done!

'We’re launching our own damn satellite' — Gov. Jerry Brown says California will go to space to fight climate change
Evan Halper | Sept 14, 2018

...will help governments, businesses and landowners pinpoint — and stop — destructive emissions with unprecedented precision, on a scale that’s never been done before... (margd: apparently CA already uses aircraft to scan for methane leaks from pipes, landfills, etc.)

http://www.latimes.com/local/california/la-me-global-climate-summit-live-updates...

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Jerry Brown’s Legacy: A $6.1 Billion Budget Surplus in California
Alejandro Lazo and Nour Malas | Jan. 10, 2018

California Gov. Jerry Brown appears poised to exit office next year with a top political priority in hand: free from the massive budget deficits that had weighed on his predecessors.

Buoyed by tax increases passed under his administration and a strong economy, Mr. Brown said Wednesday that the state is projecting a $6.1 billion surplus for the next fiscal year, which (began) July 1....

https://www.wsj.com/articles/jerry-browns-legacy-a-6-1-billion-budget-surplus-in...

Three CO2 maps and timelines from NASA:
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/carbon-dioxide/

Sure glad they are still producing these, scary as they are...

Changes in the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current not only influence weather in Europe and e North America, they are resulting in low oxygen levels (hypoxia, even) in the Gulf of St Lawrence:

Large-scale shift causing lower-oxygen water to invade Canada's Gulf of St. Lawrence
September 17, 2018, University of Washington

The Gulf of St. Lawrence has warmed and lost oxygen faster than almost anywhere else in the global oceans. The broad, biologically rich waterway in Eastern Canada drains North America's Great Lakes and is popular with fishing boats, whales and tourists.

A new study led by the University of Washington looks at the causes of this rapid deoxygenation and links it to two of the ocean's most powerful currents: the Gulf Stream and the Labrador Current. The study, published Sept. 17 in Nature Climate Change, explains how large-scale climate change already is causing oxygen levels to drop in the deeper parts of this waterway.

"The area south of Newfoundland is one of the best-sampled regions in the ocean," said first author Mariona Claret, a research associate at the UW's Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean. "It's also a very interesting area because it's at the crossroads where two big, larger-scale currents interact."

Canada's fisheries agency has tracked rising salinity and temperature in the St. Lawrence region since 1920. Oxygen has only been monitored since 1960, and the declining trend is causing concern.

"Observations in the very inner Gulf of St. Lawrence show a dramatic oxygen decline, which is reaching hypoxic conditions, meaning it can't fully support marine life," Claret said.

The Gulf Stream and Labrador Current both split near the Laurentian Channel, a deep channel within the Gulf of St. Lawrence fed by both currents. The Gulf Stream in turn is sensitive to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.

Oxygen declines have been seen to affect Atlantic wolffish, Claret said, and threaten Atlantic cod, snow crabs and Greenland halibut that all live in the depths.

"The oxygen decline in this region was already reported, but what was not explored before was the underlying cause," said Claret, who did the work while at Canada's McGill University.

The research confirms a recent study showing that, as carbon dioxide levels rose over the past century due to human emissions, the Gulf Stream has shifted northward and the Labrador Current has weakened. The new paper finds that this causes more of the Gulf Stream's warm, salty and oxygen-poor water to enter the St. Lawrence Seaway... (article and graphics worth a look!)

https://phys.org/news/2018-09-large-scale-shift-lower-oxygen-invade-canada.html
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Mariona Claret et al, Rapid coastal deoxygenation due to ocean circulation shift in the northwest Atlantic, Nature Climate Change (2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0263-1

Ötzi the Iceman is not the only bit of our past captured by European glaciers threatened by global warming:

Europe’s Triumphs and Troubles Are Written in Swiss Ice – ZlotoNews
ZlotoNews - September 18, 2018

...Mid- to low-latitude glaciers, on the other hand, tend to be more accessible and lie at the heart of thousands of years of human activity. The Colle Gnifetti glacier, sitting near the Swiss-Italian border, and with a central location on the continent, has put it on a crash course with Europe’s dust for roughly 10,000 years.

Sandra Brügger, a climate scientist at the Institute of Plant Sciences and the Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of Bern, developed a technique to study the pollen, fungal spores, charcoal and soot locked in an ice core drilled from this Swiss glacier. She is aiming to disentangle the ways extreme weather, innovation, crop failures and pollution have shaped Europe since 1050, when Macbeth ruled Scotland.

Pollen levels rise and fall during the century, but their most pronounced peaks and valleys coincide with notable events. Europe suffered through a spate of calamities during the 14th century. Before the Black Death, there was the Great European Famine. Historical accounts tell of the relentless rains that spoiled back-to-back harvests in parts of Europe from 1315 through 1317, and may have helped bolster the plague’s grip.

Ms. Brügger tracked the cereal and hemp pollen over time, noting their rise and fall. In the early 1300s, these crop pollen levels drop precipitously. “People were starving and there wasn’t much agricultural activity anymore,” Ms. Brügger said.

The Black Death took greater hold of Europe from 1347 to 1351, killing 75 million people, and the pollens vanished as agriculture came to a halt. “There’s just nothing for five to 10 years,” she said. Then, as villages recovered, the pollen levels rebound.

The ice core reveals more than Europe’s 14th century agricultural crises. It chronicles the expansion of pastureland, the increasing globalization of the economy, the onset of industrialization and the occurrence of extensive wildfires through the ages. The results, presented at the Polar 2018 meeting in Switzerland in June, may be the first continuous study of pollen and fungal spores in a European ice core to be captured at intervals of once every decade.

Few people have conducted detailed studies of pollen in ice cores before...

http://zlotonews.com/europes-triumphs-and-troubles-are-written-in-swiss-ice-zlot...

The Unequal Burden of Climate Change
Emily Atkin | September 18, 2018

Hurricane Florence and Super Typhoon Mangkhut laid bare the disproportionate consequences for poor communities.

...hurricanes hit poor, minority communities the hardest. They are more vulnerable to the risks of natural disasters, and struggle most to recover...

...The physical characteristics of hurricanes are expected to change over time. As humans emit more greenhouse gases, further warming the world, climate scientists predict deadly tropical cyclones will become rainier; that they may move more slowly and venture further into the northern hemisphere; and the hurricane season may become longer. The developed world’s emissions will be responsible for these changes. But it’s the developing world that may suffer the most from it....

https://newrepublic.com/article/151269/hurricane-florence-typhoon-mangkhut-unequ...

Climate change responsible for good chunk of increasing wobble

Planet Earth Wobbles As It Spins, and Now Scientists Know Why
Stephanie Pappas | September 24, 2018

...Since 1899, the Earth's axis of spin has shifted about 34 feet (10.5 meters). Now, research quantifies the reasons why and finds that a third is due to melting ice and rising sea levels, particularly in Greenland — placing the blame on the doorstep of anthropogenic climate change.

Another third of the wobble is due to land masses expanding upward as the glaciers retreat and lighten their load. The final portion is the fault of the slow churn of the mantle, the viscous middle layer of the planet.

...Since the 1990s, space-based measurements have also confirmed that the Earth's axis of rotation drifts by a few centimeters a year, generally toward Hudson Bay in northeastern Canada.

...this wobble isn't the prelude to any sort of environmental calamity, (Erik Ivins and Surendra Adhikari, NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California) said. It doesn't affect agriculture or climate in and of itself, and any small impact on navigational equipment is easy to correct for...

https://www.livescience.com/63655-why-earth-wobbles.html

Watch a Russian Ice Cap Experience An ‘Unprecedented’ Melt Down (0:35)
Maddie Stone | Sept 20, 2018

...troubling possibility that other cold, polar desert ice caps—ice sheets in miniature that are found mainly at high elevations—may be prone to sudden and rapid destabilization as the Earth warms.

...authors suspect the sudden surge was a result of the bottom of the ice becoming wetter, possibly due to surface meltwater percolating through cracks, and the progression of the glacier’s front onto slippery sediments.

...Ice caps like Vavilov cover about 170,000 square miles of our planet’s surface and hold back a potential foot of additional sea level rise...

https://earther.gizmodo.com/watch-a-russian-glacier-experience-sudden-unpreceden...

Remember Cuyahoga River catching on fire in 1969? It helped spur environmental movement in US.

Methane in Alaska lake burns (0:35):

Arctic expert discovers methane fuelled lake in Alaska
Chris Mooney | 9/26/2018
https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/arctic-lake-methane-alaska-gas-esieh-v...

>92 margd: Um, rising sea levels AND rising land masses? Rising land masses would mean falling sea levels, relatively speaking (which is happening on some parts of the Alaskan coast).

Mean sea levels globally have risen by 18cm in the last century. And since seas cover both sides of the planet, it is unlikely to have affected Earth's 'wobble.'

Please stop trying to blame every single thing on climate change. It makes your position look ridiculous.

>95 madpoet: rising sea levels AND rising land masses? Not possible, in the same place and time.

Water is heavy, which makes ice caps massive. Crust covered by ice are forced down, and when the ice melts, the continental crust (which is lighter than the oceanic floor) rises up. They're two different effects, measured in completely different ways.

And since seas cover both sides of the planet,

68% of the land in the world is in the Northern Hemisphere. You can divide the world into a land hemisphere (centering around Nantes, France) and a water hemisphere, with the land hemisphere having 7/8ths of the world's land.

it is unlikely to have affected Earth's 'wobble.'

Did something move? Then it affected Earth's wobble. The migration of the butterflies affects the Earth's wobble. The effect may be submeasurable, but it exists.

>96 prosfilaes: When land goes up, the sea level goes down, relative to the land. You can't have rising sea levels AND rising land in the same place and time, unless you are measuring relative to the Earth's core.

When I said that seas cover both sides of the world, I was referring to the eastern and western hemispheres. Since, as you know, the Earth rotates around a north-south axis.

'The effect may be submeasurable' So why mention it? Why bring up something so irrelevant to the Earth's actual 'wobble' in such alarmist tones?

Look, I am not a climate change denier. Call me a realist, if you will. Yes, the Earth's climate is warming, and yes, the sea levels are moderately rising, on average. But let's not confuse what is really happening with pseudo-science blaming everything on climate change.

Here's an interesting read. The author does not deny climate change, but he debunks some of the alarmist stories that are put out there by some of the media.

ttps://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2015/02/09/top-10-global-warming-lies-that-may-shock-you/#4749d1b253a5

>97 madpoet: You can't have rising sea levels AND rising land in the same place and time

As I said, lands that were glacier-laden are now rising, relative to the Earth's core or the rest of the land in the world. Why would you think we were talking about the exact same place?

When I said that seas cover both sides of the world, I was referring to the eastern and western hemispheres. Since, as you know, the Earth rotates around a north-south axis.

Since, as you know, the Prime Meridian was arbitrarily chosen, there's nothing special about the Eastern and Western Hemispheres. But even if you chose that division, the Eastern Hemisphere has more land than the Western Hemisphere.

So why mention it?

You claimed there was no effect. Now you're going all lawyerly on me, and saying even if it exists, it doesn't matter? I don't know what the magnitude of the effect is, but your claim that there is none is absurd, and I see no reason to doubt the report on the matter.

Call me a realist, if you will.

Why would I call you a realist? You're arguing against facts based on simplistic arguments, and calling research published in reputable scientific journals as pseudo-science.

Let's take another of his articles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamestaylor/2013/05/08/sorry-global-warmists-but-ex...

Hurricane inactivity is also setting all-time records. The United States is undergoing its longest stretch in recorded history without a major hurricane strike, with each passing day extending the unprecedented lack of severe hurricanes, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data.

It has been more than 2,750 days since a major hurricane struck the United States. This easily smashes the prior record of less than 2,300 days between major hurricane strikes.

Even if I weren't familiar with hurricane news, that would strike me as a weird statistic; why focus only on major hurricanes and only ones that made landfall in the US? And rare events are statistically harder to manage; the fact that it's been seven years since an event happened, where previously it had been six, doesn't mean much.

Let's look at more general statistics, ACE and storm counts (for the Atlantic, which is where the vast majority of US landing hurricanes come from): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy . In 2013, the past three years all had 19 or more tropical storms, where only two years before 1995 (1887 and 1933) had reached that point. There were all three above-average in accumulated cyclone energy, with 2010 having more accumulated cyclone energy than any year after 1969 and before 1995. In the past six years before this article, there were 18 major hurricanes in the Atlantic; that none of them made landfall in the US as major hurricanes was mere luck and not anything statistically meaningful. There certainly wasn't a lack of severe hurricanes, as he claims.

This author makes a habit of dismissing and minimizing climate change.

>95 madpoet: rising sea levels AND rising land masses?

There's a lot going on out there, that's for sure.

Currently, oceans are rising due to anthropogenic climate change: warmer waters expand in volume, meltwater pours into the sea.

At the same time, the earth's crust is still, but slowly (~1 cm a year), rebounding from weight of the last continental glaciers, now melted. I expect places like Greenland will respond similarly as its glaciers continue to melt.

(Below is nice little explanation of "glacial isostatic adjustment", in case of interest to anyone.)

AGU Student Video Contest: Rebound: An Earth Story (3:18)
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
Margaret Rosenburg | Jul 8, 2013

Description: My submission is an education video about glacial isostatic adjustment, why we have glacial and interglacial periods, how we can reconstruct climate history, and how the Earth is responding to the retreat of the continental glaciers. I found that this topic brings together a lot of different areas of study relevant to AGU, from geophysics, to orbital mechanics, to geochemistry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V7HP1jsoisE

The article was listing things that cause the Earth to wobble more (and explicitly mentioned that this wobbling isn't a problem for anyone) and said that melting ice and sea level rise account for 1/3 of it and rising land masses account for another 1/3. There is nothing contradictory about that.

It's interesting, in all the talk about 'glacial rebounding' no one can bring themselves to state the obvious fact: sea levels are falling-- at least around the areas where glaciers have disappeared.

>103 madpoet: ????? How is that relevant to anything. No one is denying that sea levels are falling in areas where the land is rebounding from ancient glaciers. That has nothing to do with the fact that in the absence of such rebounding sea levels are rising due to thermal expansion and the melting of glaciers.

Global vs. Local Sea Level (2:38)

Rising global sea level is one of the most commonly cited consequences of climate change, but it’s often unclear how it might affect people living on the coasts.

First, let’s take a look at why sea level changes. A rise in global sea level occurs due to the warming of the ocean and the addition of fresh water into the ocean basins from melting ice on land. Local sea level, known as relative sea level change, is affected by global sea level fluctuations, changes in land elevation, winds, and ocean circulation.

Satellite data indicates that since 1992, there has been an average rise of about 3 millimeters per year in global sea level. That may not sound like much, but it adds up quickly. And remember – sea level rise isn’t uniform across the globe. For instance, tide gauge measurements show that sea level is rising almost 10 mm/yr in Louisiana because the land is sinking. In other coastal areas, sea level trends are falling. For example, in southeast Alaska, local sea level trends are falling up to 17 mm/yr because the land is rising.

What do all these numbers mean? Well, NOAA’s Sea Level Rise & Coastal Flooding Impacts Viewer gives a visual representation of how U.S. coastlines could be impacted by sea level rise, from current sea level to up to six feet higher. This tool also shows areas currently subject to coastal flooding, as well as projected frequency and duration of flood events at hypothetical sea level rise scenarios.

Additionally, it also incorporates social and economic data to give a general idea of how vulnerable populations and local economies might be affected by sea level rise.

You can go online and use this tool to see how your area might be affected.
NOAA will continue to enhance its products and services to provide critical information on local and global sea level trends as we monitor the effects of climate change on our planet.

https://oceantoday.noaa.gov/globalvslocalsealevel/welcome.html

_____________________________________________

Sea Level Rise (23:38)

This learning module is a cooperative effort between NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory and NOAA’s National Ocean Service. It informs about sea level rise, its causes, and impacts; and challenges students to think about what they can do in response. This module features an integrated educational package of grade level-appropriate (6-12) instruction and activities centered on a 23-minute video presentation. Note that the video has scheduled pauses so educators may facilitate discussions of presented topics. Discussions will extend the total viewing time of the video.

https://oceanservice.noaa.gov/education/sea-level-rise/welcome.html

_____________________________________________

Trump administration sees a 7-degree rise in global temperatures by 2100
Juliet Eilperin, Brady Dennis and Chris Mooney | September 28, 2018

Last month, deep in a 500-page environmental impact statement, the Trump administration made a startling assumption: On its current course, the planet will warm a disastrous 7 degrees by the end of this century.

A rise of 7 degrees Fahrenheit, or about 4 degrees Celsius, compared with preindustrial levels would be catastrophic, according to scientists. Many coral reefs would dissolve in increasingly acidic oceans. Parts of Manhattan and Miami would be underwater without costly coastal defenses. Extreme heat waves would routinely smother large parts of the globe.

But the administration did not offer this dire forecast as part of an argument to combat climate change. Just the opposite: The analysis assumes the planet’s fate is already sealed.

The draft statement, issued by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), was written to justify President Trump’s decision to freeze federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and light trucks built after 2020. While the proposal would increase greenhouse gas emissions, the impact statement says, that policy would add just a very small drop to a very big, hot bucket...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/trump-administration-sees...

Oh great, the Phragmites equivalent of the simplistic 'zebra-mussels-clear-water-so-they're-good' argument...
faster-growing, larger invasive plants store more C in wetlands--something to weigh against all the damage they do to habitat and biodiversity...

(Ecosystem engineers, e.g., Phragmites, beavers (definition): http://www.ecology.info/ecosystem-engineers.htm)

Invasive plants can boost blue carbon storage
Smithsonian | Oct 1, 2018

...some plant invaders could help fight climate change by making it easier for ecosystems to store "blue carbon"--the carbon stored in coastal environments like salt marshes, mangroves and seagrasses. But other invaders, most notably animals, can do the exact opposite.

...marshes and mangroves can store carbon an estimated 40 times faster than forests. And over the past century, biologists estimate the world has lost 25 to 50 percent of its blue carbon habitats, with an additional 8,000 square kilometers disappearing every year. Understanding these ecosystems is critical as policymakers work to mitigate both climate change and the impacts of invasive species.

...The scientists used the data calculated how much plant-based biomass or soil carbon changed in each place in the presence of an invader. Over time, plant-based pools of biomass can be converted into valuable blue-carbon storage "sinks" that are locked in the soils beneath these habitats.

But when the researchers crunched the numbers, they discovered invasive species do not fall into a single camp. When the most powerful plants invaded--the ones Davidson called "ecosystem engineers"--biomass skyrocketed. At a 117 percent boost, they more than doubled an ecosystem's biomass and potential to store carbon. The reason, the authors said, is because most of those plants were similar to the species they usurped (a new kind of mangrove tree entering a mangrove forest, for example, or a reed like Phragmites entering a salt marsh). Because the invaders grew larger and faster than the native species, the ecosystem as a whole could store more carbon.

...However, not all plants were so helpful. When more dissimilar plants took over, like algae invading a seagrass bed, biomass fell by more than a third. And animals cut biomass nearly in half, leaving ecosystems much feebler blue-carbon sinks.

"Introduced animals are essentially going in there eating, trampling, cutting and destroying biomass," Davidson said.

Salt marshes seemed to get the biggest biomass boost from their invaders, about 91 percent on average. This was partly because most salt marsh invaders fell into the "ecosystem engineer" plant category. However, the authors pointed out, salt marshes made up a huge portion of the data they were able to analyze. Seagrasses and mangroves have received much less attention, so the researchers did not have as much information to draw on.

The authors also cautioned against viewing invasive species as unlikely heroes. Carbon storage is one metric that some invaders could enhance, but managers still need to consider the other impacts invaders can have, such as biodiversity loss or habitat shrinking. The real question, the authors said, is how to manage environments where an invasive species has already taken hold and evaluate the true costs and benefits of eradication...
###

The abstract will be available after publication at https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14426. ...

https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2018-10/s-ipc092518.php

Just read the last two topics, earth wobble & land rising. Land rising displaces water in some areas causing the volume of water displaced to seek a new level above what is was before is my understanding

The earth wobble article as I remember it was an academic article on earth wobble causes with no agenda fulfilling objective other than increasing our knowledge base.

I have taken some geology courses and minute changes in the wobble of the earth can have spectacular changes on the earths weather.

Commercial fishing banned across much of the Arctic
Fiona Harvey | 3 Oct 2018

International agreement will protect vast areas of sea that have opened up as the ice melts

...The moratorium on Arctic fishing will safeguard an area about the size of the Mediterranean for at least the next 16 years, as warming temperatures allow summer navigation across what was previously ice.

Sea ice in the Arctic reached its annual minimum last week, with what polar scientists confirmed was the joint sixth-lowest extent of ice on record. This year sits with 2008 and 2010 in the rankings of ice minimums, showing a clear trend of diminishing summer ice cover and thickness, with record lows in the last decade and reports of thick multi-year ice showing new vulnerability to break-up.

No fishing takes place there currently, but large ships are starting to explore the area. Maersk, the Danish shipping company, in August sent the first container vessel through the previously frozen route, starting from the Russian city of Vladivostok and arriving safely with its cargo of frozen fish in St Petersburg after a 37-day voyage.

The Arctic is likely to become more attractive to commercial fishing fleets in future years, as climate change is causing major fish stocks including cod and halibut to move further north as lower latitudes warm, and overfishing in traditional grounds makes potential new areas appealing.

Nine nations – the US, Russia, Canada, Norway, Denmark, Iceland, Japan, South Korea and China – plus the EU signed the Central Arctic Ocean agreement at a ceremony in Greenland, following several years of talks. The countries will also begin a joint programme for scientific monitoring of the 2.8m sq km, and the moratorium can be extended in five-year increments dependent on the results...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/03/commercial-fishing-banned-ac...

>105 margd: "from current sea level to up to six feet higher" Which, at 3mm/year (as you say), would take 600 years. 3mm/year = 0.3m/century. Or about 1 foot/century. Do Americans not know what a millimeter is?

Marg. Take a breath. Yes, climate change is scary, but there are many, many other threats to life on Earth which are more imminent and deadly. (AI. Superviruses. Nuclear accidents/terrorism. Just general pollution. Donald Trump) Relax. Have a beer. And hey, remember: every cloud has a silver lining. It is actually impossible for climate change to have no positive effects. Life thrives in warm environments. Ever consider that the wettest, most life-filled places on Earth are at the equator? That's where the rain forests are. The Arctic and Antarctic are deserts. Stop and think about that.

>109 margd: I really appreciate your intelligent and informative posts, thank you very much for taking the time to do this. I've been reading your posts for many months now.

>111 karspeak: Thankee :-) Posting helps me make sense of a fast-moving situation!
Sure hope we don't blow through too many irreversible thresholds before (collectively) we get our act together...

>110 madpoet: there are many, many other threats to life on Earth which are more imminent and deadly

That's a standard line, no matter what one wants to dismiss. Don't worry about this, worry about that, even if the speaker doesn't show much concern for the distracting factors.

AI. Superviruses. Nuclear accidents/terrorism.

In other words, things you haven't really thought about or shown concern for. Why should the idea of superviruses mean that we shouldn't be worried about climate change?

>110 madpoet: Classic paper on perception of risk. Just six pages, but study Fig 1, if nothing else!

Slovic, Paul. (1987). "Perception of Risk." Science 236(17 April): 280-285.
http://www.heatherlench.com/wp-content/uploads/2008/07/slovic.pdf

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 2018. Global Warming of 1.5C.
http://www.ipcc.ch/report/sr15/

34 p summary for policy-makers:
http://report.ipcc.ch/sr15/pdf/sr15_spm_final.pdf
_______________________________________________________________________

Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040
Coral Davenport | Oct. 7, 2018

...The report, issued on Monday by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, a group of scientists convened by the United Nations to guide world leaders, describes a world of worsening food shortages and wildfires, and a mass die-off of coral reefs as soon as 2040 — a period well within the lifetime of much of the global population.

...if greenhouse gas emissions continue at the current rate, the atmosphere will warm up by as much as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) above preindustrial levels by 2040, inundating coastlines and intensifying droughts and poverty...

...To prevent 2.7 degrees of warming, the report said, greenhouse pollution must be reduced by 45 percent from 2010 levels by 2030, and 100 percent by 2050. It also found that, by 2050, use of coal as an electricity source would have to drop from nearly 40 percent today to between 1 and 7 percent. Renewable energy such as wind and solar, which make up about 20 percent of the electricity mix today, would have to increase to as much as 67 percent.

...price tag...The estimated $54 trillion in damage from 2.7 degrees of warming would grow to $69 trillion if the world continues to warm by 3.6 degrees

...greenhouse gas reduction pledges put forth under the Paris agreement will not be enough to avoid 3.6 degrees of warming.

The report emphasizes the potential role of a tax on carbon dioxide emissions...to be effective, such a price would have to range from $135 to $5,500 per ton of carbon dioxide pollution in 2030, and from $690 to $27,000 per ton by 2100.

By comparison, under the Obama administration, government economists estimated that an appropriate price on carbon would be in the range of $50 per ton. Under the Trump administration, that figure was lowered to about $7 per ton.

...The report details the economic damage expected should governments fail to enact policies to reduce emissions. The United States, it said, could lose roughly 1.2 percent of gross domestic product for every 1.8 degrees of warming.

In addition, it said, the United States along with Bangladesh, China, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Japan, the Philippines and Vietnam are home to 50 million people who will be exposed to the effects of increased coastal flooding by 2040, if 2.7 degrees of warming occur.

At 3.6 degrees of warming, the report predicts a “disproportionately rapid evacuation” of people from the tropics. “In some parts of the world, national borders will become irrelevant,” said Aromar Revi, director of the Indian Institute for Human Settlements and an author of the report. “You can set up a wall to try to contain 10,000 and 20,000 and one million people, but not 10 million.”

The report also finds that, in the likelihood that governments fail to avert 2.7 degrees of warming, another scenario is possible: The world could overshoot that target, heat up by more than 3.6 degrees, and then through a combination of lowering emissions and deploying carbon capture technology, bring the temperature back down below the 2.7-degree threshold.

In that scenario, some damage would be irreversible, the report found. All coral reefs would die. However, the sea ice that would disappear in the hotter scenario would return once temperatures had cooled off...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html

______________________________________________________________________

Landmark UN climate report warns time quickly running out
Oct 8 , 2018

Next few years 'probably the most important in our history', scientists warn in hard-hitting new climate study.

..."This report is not a wake-up call, it is a ticking timebomb," said Gro Harlem Brundtland, Acting Chair of The Elders in a statement. "Climate activists have been calling for decades for leaders to show responsibility and take urgent action, but we have barely scratched the surface of what needs to be done. Further failure would be an unconscionable betrayal of the planet and future generations."...

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2018/10/landmark-climate-report-warns-time-quickl...

Books: How to Write About a Vanishing World
Elizabeth Kolbert | October 15, 2018 Issue

Scientists chronicling ecological destruction must confront the loss of their life’s work and our planet’s riches.

...Hope and its doleful twin, Hopelessness, might be thought of as the co-muses of the modern eco-narrative. Such is the world we’ve created—a world of wounds—that loss is, almost invariably, the nature writer’s subject.

...It’s hard to say what purpose would be served by a message of straight-up despair; despondency, as it’s often noted, produces its own feedback loop. And yet, scientifically speaking, what alternative is there, as we move into the future, beyond the baiji, and the golden toad, and the reefs, and the sea ice, on toward re-ëngineering the atmosphere? Lalalalalala, can’t hear you!

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2018/10/15/how-to-write-about-a-vanishing-wor...

Don't just "look at it", READ IT, you bozo!

Trump expresses suspicion about UN climate report, but says he will look at it
Kevin Liptak | October 9, 2018

..."It was given to me. And I want to look at who drew it. You know, which group drew it. I can give you reports that are fabulous and I can give you reports that aren't so good," Trump told reporters on the South Lawn.

...Trump said last year he would withdraw the United States from the landmark Paris climate agreement. Instead, Trump has advocated for more coal energy and loosened regulations on vehicle emissions.

"I will be looking at it, absolutely," Trump said...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/09/politics/donald-trump-climate-report-un/index.htm...

Water India: The slum residents trying to prevent a water crisis
Lou Del Bello | 12 October 2018

Delhi is set to become the world's biggest city within the next decade, but it already faces crippling water shortages. How can it hope to support more inhabitants

..."In the long run, be it the case of Delhi or any big city, indiscriminate pumping that exceeds the natural recharge rate will only accelerate the depletion of water stored in aquifers," says Priyam Das, associate professor at the University of Hawai'i and an expert on water governance. "As climate changes, so will weather patterns and surface water flows, so regulation of groundwater to protect freshwater resources could be key to averting a water crisis."

This scenario, Das says, "is rather apocalyptic, but, if it does play out, it could trigger serious unrest over scarce resources. Conflict over water is not new but we may even witness scarcity-induced violence at an unprecedented scale."

Water mafia

Despite the looming threat, "nobody monitors where and when wells are drilled, even if in theory you would need permissions", says Asit Biswas, global water resources expert and visiting professor at the Indian Institute of Technology in Bhubaneswar. "Even if there's a problem, you pay someone a few hundred rupees and the problem goes underground."

Biswas is not referring to the wells, but rather the darker side of the water industry in India. He speaks of the "water mafia" that plagues Delhi as an open secret. Part of the political class has no interest in changing the status quo, he says, because "it benefits from the existing system."... (margd: sounds familiar...)

http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181011-how-to-solve-delhis-water-crisis

Just 100 companies responsible for 71% of global emissions, study says
Tess Riley | 10 Jul 2017 01.26 EDT

A relatively small number of fossil fuel producers and their investors could hold the key to tackling climate change

Just 100 companies (see list at end of article) have been the source of more than 70% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions since 1988...

The (16 p) Carbon Majors Report* “pinpoints how a relatively small set of fossil fuel producers may hold the key to systemic change on carbon emissions,” says Pedro Faria, technical director at environmental non-profit CDP, which published the report in collaboration with the Climate Accountability Institute.

...The report found that more than half of global industrial emissions since 1988 – the year the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was established – can be traced to just 25 corporate and state-owned entities. The scale of historical emissions associated with these fossil fuel producers is large enough to have contributed significantly to climate change, according to the report.

ExxonMobil, Shell, BP and Chevron are identified as among the highest emitting investor-owned companies since 1988...

...A Carbon Tracker study in 2015 found that fossil fuel companies risked wasting more than $2tn over the coming decade by pursuing coal, oil and gas projects that could be worthless in the face of international action on climate change and advances in renewables – in turn posing substantial threats to investor returns.

...CDP says its aims with the carbon majors project are both to improve transparency among fossil fuel producers and to help investors understand the emissions associated with their fossil fuel holdings...

https://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2017/jul/10/100-fossil-fuel-com...

* https://b8f65cb373b1b7b15feb-c70d8ead6ced550b4d987d7c03fcdd1d.ssl.cf3.rackcdn.co...

>115 margd: tipping points, "fat-tail" risk,,,

Climate report understates threat
Mario Molina*, Veerabhadran Ramanathan, Durwood J. Zaelke | October 9, 2018

The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5 degrees Celsius, released on Monday, is a major advance over previous efforts to alert world leaders and citizens to the growing climate risk. But the report, dire as it is, misses a key point: Self-reinforcing feedbacks and tipping points—the wildcards of the climate system—could cause the climate to destabilize even further. The report also fails to discuss the five percent risk that even existing levels of climate pollution, if continued unchecked, could lead to runaway warming—the so-called “fat tail” risk. These omissions may mislead world leaders into thinking they have more time to address the climate crisis, when in fact immediate actions are needed. To put it bluntly, there is a significant risk of self-reinforcing climate feedback loops pushing the planet into chaos beyond human control.

...The report notes that there are historic precedents for the speed we need, although not for the scale of required mitigation. But the United States’ World War II industrial mobilization provides an encouraging precedent: Only three-and-a-half years elapsed between Pearl Harbor and D-Day. Our economies have a remarkable ability to adapt quickly with the right policies. So neither fatalism nor despair are warranted, but rather a sense of urgent, or even running-scared, optimism...

https://thebulletin.org/2018/10/climate-report-understates-threat/

* Nobel Prize in chemistry

Climate disasters cause global economic losses to soar - U.N.*
Michael Taylor | October 10, 2018

Economic losses caused by climate-related disasters have soared by about two and a half times in the last 20 years...

...Climate-related disasters accounted for about 90 percent of the 7,255 major disasters between 1998 and 2017, most of them floods and storms, it said.

Losses were greatest in the United States at $945 billion, followed by China at $492 billion and Japan at $376 billion...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-climatechange-disaster/climate-disaste...

* U.N. Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNISDR, https://www.unisdr.org/)

Wei Xie et al. 2018. Decreases in global beer supply due to extreme drought and heat. Nature Plants. Oct 15, 2018. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41477-018-0263-1#additional-information

Abstract

Beer is the most popular alcoholic beverage in the world by volume consumed, and yields of its main ingredient, barley, decline sharply in periods of extreme drought and heat. Although the frequency and severity of drought and heat extremes increase substantially in range of future climate scenarios by five Earth System Models, the vulnerability of beer supply to such extremes has never been assessed. We couple a process-based crop model (decision support system for agrotechnology transfer) and a global economic model (Global Trade Analysis Project model) to evaluate the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes projected under a range of future climate scenarios. We find that these extreme events may cause substantial decreases in barley yields worldwide. Average yield losses range from 3% to 17% depending on the severity of the conditions. Decreases in the global supply of barley lead to proportionally larger decreases in barley used to make beer and ultimately result in dramatic regional decreases in beer consumption (for example, −32% in Argentina) and increases in beer prices (for example, +193% in Ireland). Although not the most concerning impact of future climate change, climate-related weather extremes may threaten the availability and economic accessibility of beer.

______________________________________________________________________

Climate change could cripple world’s beer supply: study
Miranda Green | 10/15/18

...An international team of researchers from China, Britain and the U.S. looked at how climate change would affect the crop over the next 80 years. Measuring the effects of concurrent drought and heat extremes, they estimated that climate change could result in average barley yield losses of 3 to 17 percent, depending on the condition’s severity.

The study additionally estimated that the decrease in barley availability would lead to dramatic decreases in beer availability in some regions. Researchers estimated that, as a result, beer consumption would drop around 32 percent in Argentina and prices could increase by more than 193 percent in Ireland...

https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/411470-climate-change-could-crippl...

Bradford C. Lister el al., "Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web," PNAS (2018). www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1722477115

Significance

Arthropods, invertebrates including insects that have external skeletons, are declining at an alarming rate. While the tropics harbor the majority of arthropod species, little is known about trends in their abundance. We compared arthropod biomass in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest with data taken during the 1970s and found that biomass had fallen 10 to 60 times. Our analyses revealed synchronous declines in the lizards, frogs, and birds that eat arthropods. Over the past 30 years, forest temperatures have risen 2.0 °C, and our study indicates that climate warming is the driving force behind the collapse of the forest’s food web. If supported by further research, the impact of climate change on tropical ecosystems may be much greater than currently anticipated.

Abstract

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico’s Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo’s insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

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Two degrees decimated Puerto Rico's insect populations
Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute | October 15, 2018

While temperatures in the tropical (rain) forests of northeastern Puerto Rico have climbed two degrees Celsius since the mid-1970s, the biomass of arthropods—invertebrate animals such as insects, millipedes, and sowbugs—has declined by as much as 60-fold...

...Major findings include:

Sticky traps used to sample arthropods on the ground and in the forest canopy were indicative of a collapse in forest arthropods, with biomass catch rates falling up to 60-fold between 1976 and 2013.
The biomass of arthropods collected by ground-level sweep netting also declined as much as eight-fold from 1976 to 2013.
As arthropods declined, simultaneous decreases occurred in Luquillo's insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds.
The authors also compared estimates of arthropod abundance they made in the 1980s in the Chamela-Cuixmala Biosphere Reserve in western Mexico with estimates from 2014. Over this time period mean temperature increased 2.4 Celsius and arthropod biomass declined eightfold.

Cold blooded animals living in tropical climates are particularly vulnerable to climate warming since that they are adapted to relatively stable year-round temperatures. Given their analyses of the data, which included new techniques to assess causality, the authors conclude that climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance in the Luquillo forest. These reductions have precipitated a major bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

Given that tropical forests harbor two thirds of the Earth's species, these results have profound implications for the future stability and biodiversity of rainforest ecosystems, as well as conservation efforts aimed at mitigating the effects of climate forcing...

https://phys.org/news/2018-10-degrees-decimated-puerto-rico-insect.html#jCp

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What’s Causing the Sharp Decline in Insects, and Why It Matters
Christian Schwägerl • July 6, 2016

Insect populations are declining dramatically in many parts of the world, recent studies show. Researchers say various factors, from monoculture farming to habitat loss, are to blame for the plight of insects, which are essential to agriculture and ecosystems.

...Declines in insect populations are hardly limited to Germany. A 2014 study in Science (http://science.sciencemag.org/content/345/6195/401) documented a steep drop in insect and invertebrate populations worldwide. By combining data from the few comprehensive studies that exist, lead author Rodolfo Dirzo, an ecologist at Stanford University, developed a global index for invertebrate abundance that showed a 45 percent decline over the last four decades. Dirzo points out that out of 3,623 terrestrial invertebrate species on the International Union for Conservation of Nature IUCN Red List, 42 percent are classified as threatened with extinction...

https://e360.yale.edu/features/insect_numbers_declining_why_it_matters

>123 margd: I came across the same story today from the British Isles:

Where have all our insects gone?

>124 2wonderY: Amazing, isn't it? Insects were supposed to inherit our world no matter what we did to it--bets are on tardigrades now, instead of cockroaches? (Tardigrades ARE cuter! :-)

It truly seems that we are edging towards Armageddon.

Trump: My ‘Natural Instinct for Science’ Tells Me Climate Science Is Wrong
Jonathan Chait | 10/18/2018

...Trump asserted that, contrary to the scientific conclusion that pumping heat-trapping gases into the atmosphere has caused an upward ratcheting of temperatures, he sees it as random unexplainable variation: “I agree the climate changes, but it goes back and forth, back and forth.” When the interviewer noted that scientists have concluded otherwise, Trump asserted his own scientific credentials.

“My uncle was a great professor at MIT for many years. Dr. John Trump,” he said. “And I didn’t talk to him about this particular subject, but I have a natural instinct for science, and I will say that you have scientists on both sides of the picture.”

So Trump’s claim to scientific competence rests on his belief that science is a matter of instinct, and this instinct is passed on genetically, as evidenced by his uncle. Those lucky few possessed of this gift can look at two competing hypotheses and know which one is correct, without needing to study the evidence, or even having a clear understanding of what “evidence” means...

http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/trump-i-have-a-natural-instinct-for-scien...

Good to see young people stepping up to the challenge, esp now that millennials of voting age rival boomers.
( The ad: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t0e9guhV35o )

If only Supreme Court could put CLIMATE CHANGE on hold...

Justice Dept asks Supreme Court to put climate change lawsuit on hold
Ariane de Vogue | October 19, 2018

Washington (CNN)The Justice Department filed an emergency petition Thursday asking the Supreme Court to put on hold a federal lawsuit by youths who say the federal government has failed to act to curb climate change.

The petition marks the third filing since Justice Brett Kavanaugh took the bench where the administration has moved aggressively to get the federal judiciary's attention.

Thursday's filing concerns a lawsuit brought by 21 minors who seek to hold the government accountable for putting in place an energy plan that they allege causes climate change. The challengers say that the government is depriving them of rights to life, liberty and property and failing to protect essential public trust resources. A district court has allowed the case to go to trial on October 29.

Solicitor General Noel Francisco asked the justice to stop any further discovery and the pending trial while the government appeals the lower court opinion...."an attempt to redirect federal environmental and energy policies through the courts rather than through the political process, by asserting a new and unsupported fundamental due process right to certain climate conditions."

...Attorney General Jeff Sessions...before the conservative Heritage Foundation on Monday..."Judicial activism is therefore a threat to our representative government and the liberty it secures," Sessions said. "In effect, activist advocates want judges who will do for them what they have been unable to achieve at the ballot box. It is fundamentally undemocratic."

The filings may be welcomed by some of the justices but they also put others in an uncomfortable position, and there's a risk of going to the well too often.

"The Supreme Court unquestionably has the authority to provide the extraordinary relief the government is seeking in these cases," said Steve Vladeck, CNN Supreme Court analyst and professor at the University of Texas School of Law. "That said, it tends to exercise that authority sparingly, and there's reason to wonder if the government, by repeatedly asking for such unusual relief, might be perceived by at least some of the justices as the boy who cried wolf."

...(Chief Justice) Roberts cares deeply about how the court is perceived..."I have great respect for our public officials. After all, they speak for the people and that commands a certain degree of humility from those of us in the judicial branch who do not. We do not speak for the people," he said. "But we speak for the Constitution. Our role is very clear. We are to interpret the laws and Constitution of the United States and ensure that the political branches act within them."...

https://www.cnn.com/2018/10/18/politics/supreme-court-climate-change-kavanaugh/i...

>128 margd: "It is fundamentally undemocratic."

Yes, Sessions, it is. That's because we live in a constitutional democracy, and sometimes the rights of the minorities overwhelm the will of the majorities. It's funny how he doesn't object to the undemocratic lawsuits against the current Affordable Health Care Act as passed by Congress, but objects to these lawsuits.

Not to mention the problems cattle ranchers are encountering in the southern part of the country...Scottish breeds can't put weight on in the heat.

Politicians say nothing, but US farmers are increasingly terrified by it – climate change
Art Cullen | Fri 19 Oct 2018

...on the richest corn ground in the world. It’s drought in the spring and floods in the fall – what were considered 500-year floods in Cedar Rapids and Des Moines 30 years ago are now considered 100-year floods. Iowa has been getting soggier in spring and fall, with scary dry spells interspersed, and more humid at night by as much as a third since 1980.

Everyone knows it has been getting wetter and weirder, especially Dr Gene Takle, a Nobel prize-winning climate scientist at Iowa State University. Takle predicted 20 years ago the floods we see today, already linking it to climate change back then. Farmers just saw ponding and called the tiling company to install more. We’re on our way to doubling the size of the northern Iowa drainage system in the past 30 years as the upper midwest has grown more humid and extreme.

This drainage system is delivering runoff rich in farm fertilizer to the Mississippi river complex and the Gulf of Mexico, where the nitrate from Iowa and Illinois corn fields is growing a dead zone the size of New Jersey. The shrimping industry is being deprived of oxygen so Iowa farmers can chase 200 bushels of corn per acre – and hope against hope that corn will somehow increase in price as we plow up every last acre.

That flow also is creating a toxic source for Des Moines Water Works, which is facing up to $100m in improvements to remove agricultural chemicals from the Raccoon river that supplies 500,000 thirsty denizens. The waterworks sued our county over it, along with two others, but a federal judge threw out the case because you simply can’t sue an Iowa drainage district. And that means that there is no way to regulate agriculture as it responds to extreme weather and market consolidation that seeks immediate return.

Meanwhile, those huge rainfalls on exposed black dirt wash it to the vales even from the flat ground of our neighborhood. We are losing soil at two to three tons an acre a year. Nature can regenerate the soil at only a half-ton a year. So we are washing our black gold down the river four to six times faster than we can regrow it.

Because we have less soil, the corn and soya beans are starting to show it in lower protein in the kernel or pod. Corn is yielding higher starch content, notes agronomist Dr Rick Cruse of Iowa State.

...The University of Minnesota forecasts, based on research at Nasa, that Iowa corn yields could drop in half within the next half-century because of extreme weather and soil depletion.

...Politicians are still talking bioswales and mini-marshes when we all need to be thinking, at least, about retiring a third of the land in the upper midwest from corn and soy rotations.

That isn’t something that the ag supply chain – controlled by the Koch brothers, Bayer-Monsanto and Dow-Dupont – can readily accept, because to give up acres is to give up revenue...

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/19/politicians-say-nothing-but-...

Perhaps emboldened by new Supreme Court's sparing Commerce Secretary from testifying (re citizenship question in census), the Government again seeks to shut down the lawsuit filed by a group of 21 children and teenagers who allege that they have a constitutional right to a “climate system capable of sustaining human life”:

"The government is now asking the court to order the district court to “end this profoundly misguided suit” or, at the very least, review the district court’s rulings allowing the case to go forward; moreover, the government again urges, the Supreme Court should put discovery and the trial on hold while it considers these requests. There would be no real harm to the plaintiffs from doing so, the government stresses, because the plaintiffs are claiming that they have been harmed by the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide emissions over several decades."

The government seems to think "the burdens of discovery and trial" on executive trumps young people's interest in a climate system that can sustain them...

Amy Howe, Government returns in climate change lawsuit (UPDATED), SCOTUSblog (Oct. 19, 2018, 7:22 PM), http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/10/government-returns-in-climate-change-lawsuit/

UPDATE: On Friday, October 19, Chief Justice John Roberts put discovery and the trial on hold until the plaintiffs respond to the government’s request and the justices can rule on that request. The plaintiffs’ response is due on Wednesday, October 24, at 3 p.m.

In July, the Supreme Court declined to intervene in a lawsuit filed by a group of 21 children and teenagers who allege that they have a constitutional right to a “climate system capable of sustaining human life.” The justices rejected the federal government’s request to block discovery and a trial until the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit could rule on the government’s petition seeking to have the case dismissed or, at a minimum, to block discovery and the trial temporarily. Today the Trump administration returned to the Supreme Court, asking it once again to put discovery and the trial – now scheduled for the end of October – on hold.

The case was originally filed in 2015 against the Obama administration. The plaintiffs argue that the federal government’s actions are causing a “dangerous climate system,” and they have asked a federal district court in Oregon to order various federal agencies to prepare and implement a remedial plan to phase out fossil-fuel emissions.

When the government asked the justices to step in over the summer, they rejected the request, which they described as “premature.” But the justices also seemed to express some skepticism about the “breadth” of the plaintiffs’ claims, calling them “striking” and observing that there are “substantial grounds for difference of opinion” on whether those claims belong in court at all. The justices instructed the district court to “take these concerns into account in assessing the burdens of discovery and trial, as well as the desirability of a prompt ruling on the” federal government’s other pending motions, which could result in dismissal of some or all of the plaintiffs’ claims.

The government is now back at the court, telling the justices that earlier this week the district court “declined to meaningfully narrow” the plaintiffs’ claims, instead rejecting various government motions that would have ended the case. The government is now asking the court to order the district court to “end this profoundly misguided suit” or, at the very least, review the district court’s rulings allowing the case to go forward; moreover, the government again urges, the Supreme Court should put discovery and the trial on hold while it considers these requests. There would be no real harm to the plaintiffs from doing so, the government stresses, because the plaintiffs are claiming that they have been harmed by the cumulative effects of carbon dioxide emissions over several decades.

The government’s request, signed by U.S. solicitor general Noel Francisco, goes to Chief Justice John Roberts, who currently serves as the circuit justice for the 9th Circuit. Roberts can act on the government’s application immediately or refer it to the full court.

http://www.scotusblog.com/2018/10/government-returns-in-climate-change-lawsuit/

Rewilding’ landscapes with rhinos and reindeer could prevent fires and keep Arctic cool

Interesting article in Science that is not purporting to be THE solution just an aid to prevent global warming, don't think it is pay walled.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/10/rewilding-landscapes-rhinos-and-reindeer...

>132 DugsBooks: Neat--thanks. Amazing how powerful rewilding can be whether introducing keystone species such as wolves in Yellowstone and Isle Royale. Flip side is the 'invasional meltdown' that can occur when exotic species introduced, such as zebra mussels: just reading about negative effects of invasive-plant leaf litter leachate on development of native tadpoles, especially in presence of road salt... Most powerful, though, is simply removing stressors such as fossil fuel energy, abandoning Chernobyl, safeguarding against invasiv introductions. etc.

________________________________________________________________

This sounds like the kind of lawsuit that Big Tobacco faced? Lying for years about what it knew?

New York Sues Exxon Mobil, Saying It Deceived Shareholders on Climate Change
John Schwartz | Oct. 24, 2018

New York’s attorney general sued Exxon Mobil on Wednesday, claiming the company defrauded shareholders by downplaying the expected risks of climate change to its business.

The litigation, which follows more than three years of investigation, represents the most significant legal effort yet to establish that a fossil fuel company misled the public on climate change and to hold it responsible. Not only does it pose a financial threat to Exxon that could run into the hundreds of millions of dollars or more, but it could also strike a blow to the reputation of a company that has worked to rehabilitate its image, framing itself as a leader on global warming...

...Exxon essentially kept two sets of books when accounting for the effects of climate change...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/24/climate/exxon-lawsuit-climate-change.html

________________________________________________________________

Climate Atlas of Canada (interactive)
https://climateatlas.ca/

It's Not Climate Change It's Everything Change
- Margaret Atwood

Mapping Canada’s climate future
The Climate Atlas of Canada shows users what trends to expect in their communities as a result of climate change
https://www.canadiangeographic.ca/article/mapping-canadas-climate-future#.W84jbA...

Wheat, peaches, coffee, corn and almonds.

https://www.npr.org/sections/thesalt/2018/10/25/658588158/5-major-crops-in-the-c...

The Big Meltdown
Craig Welch | Nov 2018

As the Antarctic Peninsula heats up, the rules of life there are being ripped apart. Alarmed scientists aren’t sure what all the change means for the future...

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/magazine/2018/11/antarctica-climate-change-we...

Climate Change May Be Causing Typhoons to Move North (Asia, NW Pacific)
Brian Kahn | Oct 22, 2018

...the world’s most active cyclone basin have been migrating north, putting people who might be ill-equipped to handle them in harm’s way.

...the northwest Pacific...is home to the strongest storms on Earth as well as huge population centers in China, Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, and southern Siberia in the northern half of the cyclone basin.

...a nearly 100-year snapshot of storm tracks in the basin.

The scientists gathered tree cores along a more than 800-mile transect from south to north along the East China Sea and Sea of Japan. The number of rings in those cores revealed the tree’s age. But more importantly, the spacing of the rings revealed when the trees has experienced a canopy disturbance where extra sunlight suddenly resulted in a sudden growth spurt.

...canopy disturbances have becoming significantly more common at the northern end of the study’s sampling sites. There hasn’t been any change in trends at the southern end of the study.

...the trend in the new study is also likely tied to climate change, which is warming the oceans and essentially stretching the tropics further poleward.

...In addition to shifting tracks, climate change could also be influencing a trend toward more intense landfalling cyclones on the northwest Pacific...

https://earther.gizmodo.com/climate-change-may-be-causing-typhoons-to-move-north...

_____________________________________________________________

Jan Altman et al. 2018. Poleward migration of the destructive effects of tropical cyclones during the 20th century
PNAS published ahead of print October 22, 2018 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1808979115

Significance
Long-term variability in tropical cyclone (TC) activity is of high relevance for the development of adaptation and mitigation strategies; however, our current knowledge is based mostly on short-term records, with strong discrepancies among various datasets. We used tree-ring records of past forest disturbances to show rapid increases in the destructive effects of TCs during the 20th century. Long-term changes in TC activity imply that the recent poleward migration of TCs is not within the range of long-term natural variability and may be associated with climate change. Our findings are important, as affected regions were formerly situated at the edge of areas affected by TCs, and these areas are more sensitive to TC hazards because of a lack of experience-based adaptation strategies.

Abstract
Determination of long-term tropical cyclone (TC) variability is of enormous importance to society; however, changes in TC activity are poorly understood owing to discrepancies among various datasets and limited span of instrumental records. While the increasing intensity and frequency of TCs have been previously documented on a long-term scale using various proxy records, determination of their poleward migration has been based mostly on short-term instrumental data. Here we present a unique tree-ring–based approach for determination of long-term variability in TC activity via forest disturbance rates in northeast Asia (33–45°N). Our results indicate significant long-term changes in TC activity, with increased rates of disturbances in the northern latitudes over the past century. The disturbance frequency was stable over time in the southern latitudes, however. Our findings of increasing disturbance frequency in the areas formerly situated at the edge of TC activity provide evidence supporting the broad relevance of poleward migration of TCs. Our results significantly enhance our understanding of the effects of climate change on TCs and emphasize the need for determination of long-term variation of past TC activity to improve future TC projections.

EPN and Save EPA Ann Arbor Comment on EPA’s Proposed Rollback of the Clean Car Standards
October 26, 2018

On August 24, 2018, the EPA issued a proposal* to roll back clean car standards with the Safer Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles rule. Save EPA Ann Arbor and EPN members with expertise in fuel efficiency CAFÉ standards and mobile-source air pollution reviewed the proposal and concluded that this rollback will increase vehicle emissions of powerful greenhouse gases that contribute to climate change and harmful air pollutants that endanger people’s health. This proposal takes vehicle emissions standards in the wrong direction, resulting in increased air pollution, greater health risks and higher gas prices.

Read a summary of the comments: EPN and Save EPA Ann Arbor Summary of Comments to Roll Back Clean Car Standards (1 p)
https://www.environmentalprotectionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/Summar...

Read the full comments: EPN and Save EPA Ann Arbor Comments on Proposal to Roll Back Clean Car Standards (7 p)
https://www.environmentalprotectionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/EPN-an...

Read the fact sheet: EPN and Save EPA Ann Arbor SAFE Fact Sheet (1 p)
https://www.environmentalprotectionnetwork.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/SAFE-F...

https://www.environmentalprotectionnetwork.org/safe-comments/

* https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/safer-affordable-...
(Comment period closed Oct 26, 2018.)

__________________________________________________________________

GM, Honda Uneasy About Trump Plan to Dump Fuel-Economy Rules
Ryan Beene and John Lippert | October 26, 2018

(The Environmental Protection Agency and the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration in August recommended keeping federal fuel economy requirements at 37 miles per gallon from 2020 through 2026, instead of raising them to roughly 47 mpg by 2025 under rules adopted by the Obama administration. The agencies also want to revoke the most populous U.S. state’s authority to adopt vehicle efficiency rules of its own, including its electric-car mandate.)

California officials calling for proposal to be withdrawn
Carmakers break with move to roll back fuel economy standards

...In filings due Friday, General Motors Co. plans to propose that instead of opposing California’s so-called zero emission vehicle sales mandate, federal regulators should instead embrace a nationwide electric-car sales program starting in 2021. Honda Motor Co., meanwhile, took exception to Trump’s proposed freeze on mileage standards and called for steadily increasing requirements to continue.

The formal comments to regulators mark one of the clearest signs yet of the auto industry’s misgivings about the proposal to cap federal fuel-economy requirements in 2020 and unwind California’s power to set its own vehicle efficiency standards and its zero-emission vehicle mandate.

Almost 100,000 comments had been posted on a government website by Friday afternoon, with several hours to go before the deadline for public comment at midnight.

“We know that we can do better” than the Trump proposal, Mark Reuss, GM’s executive vice president of global product development, told reporters in advance of the deadline. “We know that the industry can do better than that.”

GM says a nationwide program could put 7 million long-range electric cars on the road and slash 375 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, compared with existing zero-emission vehicle mandates.

...“GM is taking a leadership position in at least offering an alternative to what could be this endless battle between the federal government and California,” said Michelle Krebs, an Autotrader analyst. “Whether the administration will accept it, that’s another question.”...GM is taking this step because it’s concerned that the U.S. could fall behind Europe and Asia in the development of electric cars.

...Reuss said a national electric car program would ease some of the challenges that this type of vehicle presents to all automakers. “It will facilitate more makers to be able to really focus on development of electric vehicles more efficiently, and take the guesswork out of what we think may or not happen,” he said. “We’re making bets on a lot of uncertainty, which is highly destructive to capital.”...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-26/gm-breaks-with-trump-in-call-...

The latest thing climate change is threatening is our history
Chris Mooney and Brady Dennis | October 16, 2018

About 40 historic Mediterranean sites, representing cultures extending from the Phoenicians through the Venetians, are already at risk due to rising seas, research finds.

The old city of Dubrovnik, clinging to the Croatian coast of the Adriatic Sea, is one major storm away from a flood that could cover 10 percent of a medieval city long known as the “Pearl of the Adriatic” and more recently as a main setting for HBO’s “Game of Thrones.”

It’s one of about 40 treasured historical sites across the Mediterranean, including the winding canals of Venice and the ancient city of Carthage, at risk from rising seas...

The reason for their sweeping vulnerability is the same one that fostered so many civilizations in the Mediterranean to begin with. It’s the lure of the sea, dating back at least to the time of the ancient Phoenicians, who set sail from the now-threatened sites of Byblos and Tyre along the current coast of Lebanon....

https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/16/rising-seas-could-d...

______________________________________________________________________________________

Lena Reimann et al. 2018. Mediterranean UNESCO World Heritage at risk from coastal flooding and erosion due to sea-level rise.
Nature Communications volume 9, Article number: 4161 (2018). https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-06645-9

Abstract

UNESCO World Heritage sites (WHS) located in coastal areas are increasingly at risk from coastal hazards due to sea-level rise. In this study, we assess Mediterranean cultural WHS at risk from coastal flooding and erosion under four sea-level rise scenarios until 2100. Based on the analysis of spatially explicit WHS data, we develop an index-based approach that allows for ranking WHS at risk from both coastal hazards. Here we show that of 49 cultural WHS located in low-lying coastal areas of the Mediterranean, 37 are at risk from a 100-year flood and 42 from coastal erosion, already today. Until 2100, flood risk may increase by 50% and erosion risk by 13% across the region, with considerably higher increases at individual WHS. Our results provide a first-order assessment of where adaptation is most urgently needed and can support policymakers in steering local-scale research to devise suitable adaptation strategies for each WHS.

Coastal Pacific Oxygen Levels Now Plummet Once A Year
Weekend Edition Sunday | October 28, 2018

..."One of the more fundamental reasons is that the ocean is warmer now and warmer water holds less oxygen," says Chan. "And then the second part is that a warmer surface ocean, it acts as an insulating blanket."

So that blanket stops colder low-oxygen water from rising up and mixing with oxygen in the surf.

Scientists say climate change is behind this. The ocean has been absorbing nearly all the rising heat from greenhouse gas emissions, and it's projected to grow even warmer in coming decades.

Other factors may be contributing too. Oregon State University oceanographer and co-chair of the Oregon Coordinating Council on Ocean Acidification and Hypoxia Jack Barth, thinks higher temperatures are also slowing ocean currents. If we could see under the waves, he says, there'd be a lot more concern.

...Deep Pacific waters 50 miles off the coast have always been hypoxic. And it's hardly surprising. The water down there take decades to slowly flow thousands of miles from Japan to the west coast — all the while separated from oxygen in the air.

...in 2002...extremely low levels of dissolved oxygen across tens of square miles. Four years later it happened again, but across a larger area and with lower oxygen levels.

...The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration just issued a grant for about 40 new oxygen sensors to be distributed among crabbers so they gather data where they put their pots...

https://www.npr.org/2018/10/28/658953894/coastal-pacific-oxygen-levels-now-plumm...

Climate change is transforming Canada's mountains
Abi Hayward and Nick Walker | June 1, 2018

A new report by Alpine Club of Canada scientists and other experts highlights worrying trends in Canada’s mountain ecosystems

...the most recent scientific fieldwork, data modelling and photo evidence from a host of ecologists, geologists, hydrologists, climatologists and other researchers to create the clearest picture yet of how our mountain spaces as a whole are changing, and changing fast.

These are highly complex regions — hotbeds of species diversity criss-crossed by critical migration routes, but also wellsprings of Canadian culture and identity, recreation and economy covering more than a quarter of the country. And as the map below shows, many major rivers rise from the highest elevations, supporting ecosystems, communities and industries both near and far from their snowpack- and glacier-fed headwaters.

From the peaks to the Prairies and on, mountains affect us all...

Report highlights

Rivers changing course

The end of snow sports in the coastal mountains?

Visualizing changes in the mountain landscape: glaciers are retreating, forests are marching uphill and wildfires have etched their marks into the landscape.

Glaciers in decline

Conservation on the hoof: bighorn sheep, the thinhorn sheep and mountain goats

https://www.canadiangeographic.ca/article/climate-change-transforming-canadas-mo...

_________________________________________________________________________

The Alpine Club of Canada. 2018. State of the Mountains Report. Volume 1. May 2018. 43 p. https://www.alpineclubofcanada.ca/web/ACCMember/Community/Publications/State_of_...

>134 2wonderY: I was shocked to learn that it takes 1 gallon of water to produce 1 almond - not one pound - 1 solitary almond!

>141 mamzel: I have read that California's underground water level is an almond casualty.

>135 margd: "As the Antarctic Peninsula heats up, the rules of life there are being ripped apart." - Mastodons in Antarctica? :-)

I am reading the very understandable and interesting book, The Sixth Extinction. I am in the chapter which talks about coral reefs. Having grown up in the Caribbean and enjoyed snorkeling many of the reefs around the British and American Virgin Islands, I was heartbroken to read about one study that predicts, "If current trends continue, then by around 2050 visitors to the Great Barrier Reef will arrive to find 'rapidly eroding rubble banks.'" This is due to both acidification and temperature increases observed in the tropical regions where corals live. Not to mention the giant storms that make reefs look like they were bulldozed, also possibly caused/enhanced by global warming.


photo of St. John reefs after Irma and Maria by Jeff Miller


Florida reef after Irma

Oceans heating faster than previously thought: study
AFP | November 1, 2018

The world's oceans have absorbed 60 per cent more heat than previously thought over the last quarter of a century, scientists said Thursday, leaving Earth more sensitive still to the effects of climate change.

...the data showed mankind must once again revise down its carbon footprint (from IPCC recommendation), with emissions needing to fall 25 precent compared to previous estimates.

...The IPCC warns that drastic measures need taking in order to limit global warming to 1.5 Celsius by the end of the century but the world produced a record amount of carbon emissions in 2017.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/oceans-heating-faster-than-previously-thought-st...

_______________________________________________________________

L. Resplandy et al. 2018. Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition. Nature volume 563, pages105–108 (31 Oct 2018) https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0651-8

Abstract

The ocean is the main source of thermal inertia in the climate system1. During recent decades, ocean heat uptake has been quantified by using hydrographic temperature measurements and data from the Argo float program, which expanded its coverage after 2007. However, these estimates all use the same imperfect ocean dataset and share additional uncertainties resulting from sparse coverage, especially before 2007. Here we provide an independent estimate by using measurements of atmospheric oxygen (O2) and carbon dioxide (CO2)—levels of which increase as the ocean warms and releases gases—as a whole-ocean thermometer. We show that the ocean gained 1.33 +/- 0.20 × 1022 joules of heat per year between 1991 and 2016, equivalent to a planetary energy imbalance of 0.83 +/- 0.11 watts per square metre of Earth’s surface. We also find that the ocean-warming effect that led to the outgassing of O2 and CO2 can be isolated from the direct effects of anthropogenic emissions and CO2 sinks. Our result—which relies on high-precision O2 measurements dating back to 1991—suggests that ocean warming is at the high end of previous estimates, with implications for policy-relevant measurements of the Earth response to climate change, such as climate sensitivity to greenhouse gases and the thermal component of sea-level rise.

Looks like

increasing temperatures will improve tick survival, plus increase human exposure as we spend more time outdoors.
Humidity effect on questing tick behaviour (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uiLirTrh_20) sounds minimal?
(I've read elsewhere that humidity increases tick survival--they "dry out" easily?)
Doesn't look like deforestation discourages ticks much?
Northward migration of tick hosts may also be a factor, though not studied here.

Igor Dumic, Edson Severnini. 'Ticking Bomb': The Impact of Climate Change on the Incidence of Lyme Disease. Canadian Journal of Infectious Diseases and Medical Microbiology, 2018; 2018: 1 DOI: 10.1155/2018/5719081 https://www.hindawi.com/journals/cjidmm/2018/5719081/

Carnegie Mellon University. "Lyme disease predicted to rise in United States as climate warms." ScienceDaily. ScienceDaily, 1 November 2018. .

All RIGHT!

Supreme Court won't block children's climate change lawsuit
Ariane de Vogue | November 3, 2018
Undeniable climate change facts

...The administration had asked the court to halt the lawsuit, saying it was "misguided" and a "radical invasion of the separation of powers."

In its unsigned order, the court said the administration had not reached the high bar necessary to halt the lawsuit for now. But the justices suggested that the government might be able to seek relief at the 9th US Circuit Court of Appeals at a later stage of the litigation.

The vote total was not released, Justices Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch said they would have ruled in favor of the administration.

...The challengers argued that by neglecting to properly address climate change, the government is depriving them of rights to life, liberty and property while also failing to protect essential resources.

A district court had allowed the case to go to trial on October 29, but that date was put on hold after Chief Justice John Roberts issued a temporary stay.

Lawyers for the youths originally brought the case under the Obama administration and are asking the court to order the executive branch to prepare a remedial plan to phase out fossil fuel emissions.

...Solicitor General Noel Francisco (he of the secret conflict of interest exemption0 asked the justices to halt any further discovery and the pending trial while the government files appeals with the high court.

In his filing, Francisco lambasted the suit, calling it "an attempt to redirect federal environmental and energy policies through the courts rather than through the political process, by asserting a new and unsupported fundamental due process right to certain climate conditions."

https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/02/politics/climate-change-children-trial-supreme-co...

Indigenous poets read urgent climate message on a melting glacier (6:31)
Jon Letman | Nov 1, 2018

...Kathy Jetnil-Kijiner traveled from the Marshall Islands in Micronesia to Greenland’s capital city Nuuk where she met Inuk poet Aka Niviâna. Together, they embarked with a small film crew to a remote spot on southern Greenland’s ice sheet where they recited their poem “Rise” on top of a crevasse-scarred melting glacier.

With dramatic orchestration and mournful cries sounding urgently in the film’s background, the poets tell of the lands of their respective ancestors, the sunken volcanoes and hidden icebergs. They speak of angry seas, evoking the legends of sisters turned to stone, and Sassuma Arnaa, Mother of the Sea.

Addressing one another as “sister of ice and snow” and “sister of ocean and sand,” Niviâna and Jetnil-Kijiner ceremoniously exchange gifts of shells and stones in a story that is cinematically beautiful, but whose message is stark:

Let me show you
airports underwater
bulldozed reefs, blasted sands
and plans to build new atolls
forcing land
from an ancient, rising sea...

https://grist.org/article/indigenous-poets-read-urgent-climate-message-on-a-melt...

Suncor CEO slams climate change deniers, politicians who cater to them
David Bell | Jun 06, 2018

The head of Canada's largest oil company...Suncor Energy Inc. president and chief executive officer Steve Williams — speaking on a panel during the event in Calgary titled Bridging Divides: In Search of Sound Public Policies for Energy and Environment in Canada — said...

"It is a matter of profound disappointment to me that science and economics have taken on some strange political ownership. Why the science of the left-wing is different than the science of the right-wing. Why it's not possible for, certainly within Canada for conservatives, to take a conversation about, 'Hey, it's just a fact. Let's get some facts out on the table...Climate change is science. Hardcore science. What we have been talking about here is economics. Science and economics. Both very important subjects, not perfectly understood. Periods of discovery go on forever and we keep getting better and better at those things."...

"It makes sense to consume things sensibly. Common sense is not a big part of the conversation that normally goes on on this thing...Energy efficiency, the sensible use of what is a finite resource. My belief is that we will run out of these things in the not too distant future, 100 or 200 years, so we better use them very wisely."...

"I find (politicians who aim their rhetoric at deniers) scary. And I find the current politics of it — where if you want to vote this side of the politics or that side of the politics, you have to be a believer or not a believer — is complete nonsense, and we shouldn't allow that framing of the debate...And I hope some of those politicians get brave enough to stand up and take some different positions on it."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/suncor-ceo-slams-climate-change-deniers-1...

California fires: apparently EDDI, Evaporative Demand Drought Index,
can be so extreme that effect is that of negative precipitation (more moisture lost than received).
The hell ahead for so many across our globe?

Rob Elvington @RobElvington ABC Meteorologist | NC State University Meteorology | 4:15 PM - 12 Nov 2018
An update to my EDDI (Evaporative Demand Drought Index) posts with data now through November 7.
The 1-week, 4-week, 6-week, 3-months all maxed out on the EDDI.
Extreme fire conditions in these fuels has no analog/comparison. #CampFire #CAfire

(To view Nov 7 map, see tweet at https://twitter.com/RobElvington -- or --
search "week", "1" and click "Plot Map" at https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/eddi/)

>123 margd: >124 2wonderY: insects, contd.

Climate change damaging male fertility
November 13, 2018, University of East Anglia
Climate change damaging male fertility
T. castaneum spermatozoon. Credit: University of East Anglia

Climate change could pose a threat to male fertility—according to new research from the University of East Anglia.

New findings published today in the journal Nature Communications reveal that heatwaves damage sperm in insects—with negative impacts for fertility across generations.

The research team say that male infertility during heatwaves could help to explain why climate change is having such an impact on species populations, including climate-related extinctions in recent years.

...red flour beetle(s) (Tribolium castaneum)...were exposed to either standard control conditions or five-day heatwave temperatures, which were 5°C to 7°C above their thermal optimum.

...heatwaves halved the amount of offspring males could produce, and a second heatwave almost sterilised males.

...Following experimental heatwaves, males reduced sperm production by three-quarters, and any sperm produced then struggled to migrate into the female tract and were more likely to die before fertilisation.

Kris Sales, a postgraduate researcher who led the research,..."When males were exposed to two heatwave events 10 days apart, their offspring production was less than 1 per cent of the control group. Insects in nature are likely to experience multiple heatwave events, which could become a problem for population productivity if male reproduction cannot adapt or recover."

The research also shows that offspring sired by heatwaved dads—or their sperm—live shorter lives—by a couple of months.

And the reproductive performance of sons produced by dads—or sperm—exposed to heatwave conditions was also impacted. Sons were found to be less able to fertilise a series of potential mates, and produced less offspring.

The researchers warn that this could add extra pressure to populations already suffering through climate change over time.

"Beetles are thought to constitute a quarter of biodiversity, so these results are very important for understanding how species react to climate change. Research has also shown that heat shock can damage male reproduction in warm blooded animals too, and past work has shown that this leads to infertility in mammals," added Sales...

https://phys.org/news/2018-11-climate-male-fertility.html#jCp

______________________________________________________________

Kris Sales et al. 2018, Experimental heatwaves compromise sperm function and cause transgenerational damage in a model insect. Nature Communications. Volume 9, Article number: 4771 (Nov 13, 2018). DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-07273-z . https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-07273-z

Abstract. Climate change is affecting biodiversity, but proximate drivers remain poorly understood. Here, we examine how experimental heatwaves impact on reproduction in an insect system. Male sensitivity to heat is recognised in endotherms, but ectotherms have received limited attention, despite comprising most of biodiversity and being more influenced by temperature variation. Using a flour beetle model system, we find that heatwave conditions (5 to 7 °C above optimum for 5 days) damaged male, but not female, reproduction. Heatwaves reduce male fertility and sperm competitiveness, and successive heatwaves almost sterilise males. Heatwaves reduce sperm production, viability, and migration through the female. Inseminated sperm in female storage are also damaged by heatwaves. Finally, we discover transgenerational impacts, with reduced reproductive potential and lifespan of offspring when fathered by males, or sperm, that had experienced heatwaves. This male reproductive damage under heatwave conditions provides one potential driver behind biodiversity declines and contractions through global warming.

"predatory delay" :(

The President’s Coal Warrior
Jeff Goodell | Nov 13, 2018

..."If you could design the ideal character to assure the continuing domination of Big Coal & Big Oil and to reaffirm their faith in their God-given right to cook the climate in pursuit of profit, that character would look a lot like acting EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler."

...Wheeler’s game plan. The ultimate goal here is what futurist Alex Steffen calls “predatory delay.” Wheeler knows every rule he can blunt, every bit of science he can undermine, keeps guys like Robert Murray (coal baron and Trump supporter) in business for a few more years before the old coal plants are shut down and replaced by wind or solar, which, in most parts of the country, are already cheaper than coal. What Big Coal and Big Oil want from Wheeler is not victory, but time. That, in the end, is what makes Wheeler so dangerous. Because given how fast our climate is changing, and how urgent it is to leave fossil fuels in the tar pit of history, that’s exactly what we don’t have.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/andrew-wheeler-epa-fossi...

>144 margd:

THE 'GOOD' NEWS

At the end of October, a new study was published in the journal Nature, which used a new method of determining exactly how much heat from global warming is going into the oceans.

...Once the study was published, and widely reported on, however, key errors were found in their methodology, prompting them to make corrections to the study and submit those to the journal for consideration.

...So, the 'good' news from this is, whereas the original message of the study was that the oceans were warming 60 per cent faster than had been predicted in the most recent IPCC climate change report - which would have been quite the dire development - the new margins of error of the study put the amount of increased warming, compared to those same IPCC predictions, at somewhere between +10 per cent to +70 per cent.

Thus, the oceans are still warming faster than predicted, according to the study, so it's not really good news. It's just that it is hard, at the moment, to pin down exactly how much faster they are warming. It could be by just a small bit (an extra 10 per cent over prediction), or it could be much faster (possibly even more than the study originally stated).

On it's most basic level, this is how science works. Scientists may get things wrong from time to time, but that is why the scientific community works together to weed out these kinds of mistakes, to make the science more solid, and to improve our understanding of the universe.

It is a well-known and documented scientific fact now, supported by numerous studies over the years, that over 90 per cent of the warming our planet is experiencing, due to the release of greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, is happening in the oceans.

The errors found in this particular study do not change that fact. They also have no impact on the dire warnings presented in the recent IPCC report on 1.5°C.

Whereas it would have been the most ideal situation if these errors were caught before publication, now that they have been found, they are being corrected, and the study will be stronger for it. Also, since the basic findings of the report still hold up - that the oceans ARE warming faster than predicted - more scientists can now take up the cause to narrow down exactly how fast.

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/news/articles/ocean-study-errors-dial-back-dir...

>152 margd: just read a Science article on the same and they explained anti warming foes are claiming the corrections invalidate the entire study

Wish climate deniers would similarly accept corrections...

(An anti-vaxxer sends me articles from time to time with method so bad even I see it. She really doesn't want the feedback, though...)