Russia: international moves, W responses, Putin...Ukraine...China...Africa...Iran...N Korea...2.internal devts. 17

“African Corps” headquarters burned down in Russia {east of Kerch bridge}
militarnyi | 21 September 2024

... used by Russia to train its mercenaries, who are then sent to various conflict zones.

... in May, it became known that Russia had created a special unit to recruit mercenaries in several African countries...

https://mil.in.ua/en/news/african-corps-headquarters-burned-down-in-russia/

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:19 AM · Sep 24, 2024 {X}:

⚡️Breaking ❗️
Russian propagandist Solovyev suggests Putin's resignation.

0:45 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1838478421539557879)
-----------------------------------

Northern Man of the West @nathanpdx
Smells like a honeypot for revealing who is disloyal.

Akkanålke @akkanalke1
I would say that this is almost certainly a bluff. Solovyev is very close to Putin, and he would never say this unless it served a purely propagandistic purpose.
Everything Solovyev does and says is directed by the Kremlin and is part of Russia's internal indoctrination of the people, but his show also serves as a tool for psychological warfare.
What’s discussed is always controversial, and it’s always smoke and mirrors. I would take this with a big grain of salt.
Nothing to see here.

🇷🇺 In the Central African Republic, Russian paramilitary forces commit horrifying atrocities in order to gain access to natural resources.
0:36 (https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1838200529232519462)

- U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm | 8:55 AM · Sep 23, 2024
The U.S. Helsinki Commission monitors human rights and international cooperation in the 57 countries of the OSCE. {DC}
-----------------------------------

Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe
U.S. Helsinki Commission
csce.gov/issue/helsinki-commission
The Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe, also known as the U.S. Helsinki Commission, is an independent U.S. government agency created by Congress in 1975 to monitor and encourage compliance with the Helsinki Final Act and other Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe commitments. It was initiated by House representative Millicent Fenwick and established in 1975 pursuant to Public Law No. 94-304 and is based at the Ford House Office Building. {Wikipedia}
__________________________________

U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm | 9:08 AM · Sep 23, 2024 {X}:

HEARING TOMORROW: Russia's Shadow War on NATO
📅 Tuesday, September 24
🕑 2pm

Join us for a discussion about the war that 🇷🇺 is waging against NATO, including by targeting critical energy infrastructure & defense industries.

Stream live: https://youtube.com/live/jBuQxdgnssw
List of speakers (https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1838203777565737407/photo/1)

Central African Republic, Estonia, Japan... Sensing a theme here?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:34 AM · Sep 24, 2024 {X}:

❗️Japanese jet fighters fired warning flares at a Russian military reconnaissance plane that violated Japan’s airspace – The Wall Street Journal

Japanese fighter jets used infrared countermeasures to intercept a Russian Il-38 aircraft.

"A Russian Il-38 patrol aircraft violated our airspace over territorial waters north of Rebun Island, Hokkaido, three times," Japanese Defense Minister Minoru Kihara said.

According to Japanese authorities, the Russian aircraft stayed in Japanese airspace for about one minute each time. In response, F-35 fighter jets were raised on alert and used infrared countermeasures several times. Kihara noted that this is the first time Japan's Defense Forces have resorted to such measures.

The violation of Japan's airspace by the Russian aircraft occurred against the backdrop of joint exercises between the naval forces of Russia and China, which took place in the Sea of Japan on Sept. 21-22. Kihara also emphasized that it was "the first documented incursion of a Russian aircraft into our airspace since June 2019," when a Tu-95 bomber crossed the country's border south of Okinawa and near the Izu Islands, south of Tokyo. Japan protested to Russia through diplomatic channels over the incident.

https://wsj.com/world/asia/japan-warns-russia-over-violating-airspace-fires-flar...
---------------------------------

Flares are relatively harmless to other aircraft and fall away under gravity, usually to seduce an infrared missile away from the dispensing aircraft. But they burn brightly and can be used to catch an unresponsive, intercepted aircraft’s attention:

Photos
https://x.com/gregbagwell/status/1838515302226624530/photo/1
https://x.com/gregbagwell/status/1838515302226624530/photo/2

Intercepted: What You Need To Know
Chris Shieff | 21 June, 2021

https://ops.group/blog/intercepted-what-you-need-to-know/

- Greg Bagwell @gregbagwell | 5:46 AM · Sep 24, 2024

Aiyiyi...

Mike Madrid @madrid_mike | 10:57 AM · Sep 27, 2024 {X}:
“The Latino Century” author Latino GOP political consultant; Co-Founder The Lincoln Project ; Data & numbers for breakfast...

Oh look! Donald Trump is embarrassing us in front of the world again. Remember this was every day during his Presidency?

3:27 (https://x.com/madrid_mike/status/1839680698032201959)
From Justin Baragona

“He began to complain of sharp pain in the stomach”: Official documents obtained by The Insider confirm Navalny was poisoned in prison
Roman Dobrokhotov | 29 September 2024

https://theins.press/en/politics/274926

CONTESTING RUSSIA
PREPARING FOR THE LONG-TERM RUSSIAN THREAT
A REPORT BY THE U.S. HELSINKI COMMISSION STAFF (70 p)
1 Oct. 2024
https://www.csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Contesting-Russia-Report-1.pdf
--------------------------------------------

U.S. Helsinki Commission @HelsinkiComm
11 tweets • https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1840767493322703225.html
Read on X https://x.com/HelsinkiComm/status/1840767493322703225

Russia will continue to be a problem for its neighbors, the US, and much of the world.
Even in the best-case scenario in which 🇷🇺 sheds its authoritarian model & its people opt for democracy in free & fair elections, the process of liberalization will be difficult & slow.🧵1/11

Internal repression & external aggression go hand in hand. Therefore, internal developments in Russia are highly relevant to US foreign policy. Externally, there will be no hope for a peaceful and stable Russia while it remains engaged in war and occupation of its neighbors. 2/11

Russia’s official neocolonial policy of continuing to view Ukraine and other former Soviet republics and neighbors as its sandbox to play in whenever the mood strikes is the most significant obstacle to long-term peace and has been the justification for heinous crimes. 3/11

Corruption is baked into Russian business, politics, and everyday life. The Kremlin network of crime and patronage ensures that loyalty to the regime is rewarded and disloyalty is punished. Doing business with Russia is both impractical and unethical. 4/11

Putin has subordinated the judiciary to his personal power to ensure his ideal outcomes, as punishments & to instill fear in the population. Russia’s judiciary will have to be completely rebuilt & a culture of rule of law developed where it traditionally hasn't existed. 5/11

There can be no change in Russia without free and fair elections. Russia must restore free and fair elections and develop a democratic culture—but this must be built on a foundation of free speech and assembly before honest elections are possible. 6/11

Russia will continue to hold other countries hostage through its natural resource wealth. Helping to diversify away from dependence on Russia could severely weaken the Russian economy, but the US must provide countries with viable alternatives. 7/11

The GRU and FSB are Putin’s personal hit squads, involved in threats, surveillance & assassinations. Because no meaningful lustration took place after the fall of the USSR, these security services remain a clear & present danger to Putin’s enemies in Russia & abroad. 8/11

Although with a bit of savvy, Russians can access independent media online, many Russians are isolated from any alternative sources of information that might challenge their thinking. No amount of liberalization in Russia will suddenly undo years of insidious propaganda. 9/11

None of these problems will be resolved quickly, and they necessitate fundamental changes in Russia, including leadership and the political will to overhaul informal and formal government and societal structures. 10/11

Russia will not be able to decide its future without reckoning with the ugliest parts of its recent and more distant history.

To learn more about the obstacles to Russia's reform, see our new report: https://csce.gov/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/Contesting-Russia-Report-1.pdf 11/11

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:48 AM · Oct 1, 2024
{X}:
Russian military started complaining about shell starvation and attacks on ammunition depots after Ukrainian strikes on Russian warehouses.

"Z-blogger" Yegor Guzenko ("Thirteenth") said the Russian soldiers are still sent into assaults but are not given enough ammunition.
1:00 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1841037435024621944)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:31 AM · Sep 21, 2024 {X}:
Russian Telegram channels report a drone attack on a Russian ammunitions warehouse in Tikhorets district, Krasnodar region of Russia.
It is reported that ammunition from North Korea was stored there.
Russian authorities reported that 101 drones were shot down last night.
0:06, 0:10, 0:31 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1837379152292315390)

Ambassador David Pressman @USAmbHungary | 7:38 AM · Oct 5, 2024 {X}:

Five senior United States Senators visited Hungary this week. Read their important statement:
Text (https://x.com/USAmbHungary/status/1842529835316335087/photo/1)

Lithuania says it intercepted military supplies on their way to Russia, and sent them to Ukraine instead

https://www.businessinsider.com/lithuania-intercepted-russia-military-supplies-s...

The officials said that the cargo was classified as military and needed a special permit and that the shipments were likely sent by Russian volunteer groups trying to support President Vladimir Putin's war effort.
....
In March, Lithuania's prime minister, Ingrida Šimonytė, told Business Insider: "If Putin is not stopped in Ukraine, then whatever happens next is Europe's problem at large."

Lithuania is among several NATO countries bordering Russia that are readying for a Russian invasion, ramping up their military spending and constructing a defensive line along the collective 1,000 miles of border between Russia and Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.
_________
It was camouflage pants, buy hey ... every bit helps.

Ukraine Calls Russian Strike On Grain Ship In Odesa 'Deliberate Terrorist Tactic'
RFE/RL's Ukrainian Service | October 07, 2024

...it was the second ship struck in two days after a Russian air strike over the weekend hit a grain ship in the Pivdenniy port in the Odesa region...

https://www.rferl.org/a/odesa-ukraine-russia-ship-palau-kaliningrad/33149752.htm...

‘That son of a bitch’: New Woodward book reveals candid behind-the-scenes conversations of Biden, Trump, Harris and Putin
Jamie Gangel, Jeremy Herb and Elizabeth Stuart | October 8, 2024

"War" by Bob Woodward

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/08/politics/bob-woodward-book-war-joe-biden-putin-ne...

Alexei Navalny’s Prison Diaries
Alexei Navalny | October 11, 2024

The Russian opposition leader’s account of his last years and his admonition to his country and the world...

...It will crumble and collapse. The Putinist state is not sustainable.
One day, we will look at it, and it won’t be there. Victory is inevitable.
But for now, we must not give up, and we must stand by our beliefs.

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2024/10/21/alexei-navalny-patriot-memoir

Sung-Yoon Lee @SungYoonLee1 | 5:57 AM · Oct 18, 2024 {X}:
50 Best Autobiographies & Biographies of All Time @panmacmillan,
exuberant prose @TheEconomist, remarkable feat @WSJ, esp good @nytimes, riveting @TheTLS Booklist

Breaking. S Korea's top spy agency confirms N Korea will send 12,000 troops (4 brigades) to fight against Ukraine, including special forces. Many already deployed.

I'll be on @TimesRadio at 12:05 pm London time to discuss implications. https://shorturl.at/FDILX
https://www.chosun.com/politics/diplomacy-defense/2024/10/18/AX4NPJXXJREGPMDEYAQ...
1/2

I predicted it on @TimesRadio TV in 2023.* N Korea & Russia are in the same boat. NK's casualty threshold may be the highest in the world--the Kim regime is insouciant about its men's lives. This must be exploited by Ukraine: The more NK POWs, the better.
------------------------------------------------

*N Korean troops could be sent to Ukraine’s frontline in Putin - Kim deal
Sep 15, 2023 Frontline | The War in Ukraine and Global Security (49:18)

Sung Yoon Lee, a previous advisor to US administrations on North Korea has told Times Radio’s Frontline that Kim Jong Un could send troops to Ukraine disguised as medics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mx60y8UYnHU

Apparently Guterres chose not to attend earlier Ukrainian peace conference (to which Putin was not invited), but went to Russia for BRICS meeting.

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:55 AM · Oct 24, 2024 {X}:
UN Secretary-General António Guterres bows before the war criminal who started the bloodiest war in Europe during the entire existence of the UN.
Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849449713784836600/photo/1)

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:13 AM · Oct 24, 2024:
UN Secretary-General urged to "strengthen and update the machinery of peace." He spoke about the need for peace in Ukraine - to the war criminal who started the war.

No once did António Guterres condemn Russia's war against Ukraine. Not once did he name Russia as the aggressor. Instead, he said, "we must uphold the values of the UN Charter, the rule of law, and the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all States."

Hypocrisy on a global scale. Very telling that it is taking place on United Nations Day. The head of UN chose to spend it with a war criminal who repeatedly wiped his feet on the UN charter.

0:41 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849439080766947369)

>15 margd: Instead, he said, "we must uphold the values of the UN Charter, the rule of law, and the principles of sovereignty, territorial integrity and political independence of all States."

Looks like a strong and clear statement to me, spoken to the aggressor on his home ground. I don't see any bowing.

>16 John5918: António Guterres traveled to Russia but not Switzerland. He bowed when shaking Putin's hand. Putin did not bow. Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849449713784836600/photo/1)

Guterres may have been acting on some strategy for peace, but not evident to Ukrainians (or me).

>17 margd:

Guterres is a diplomat, not a populist. He is an appointed official of a multilateral organisation of which Russia is a powerful member, indeed one of the five members which have veto powers. He is keeping channels of communication open with Russia, which is a key element of any eventual peace negotiations. BRICS is an organisation which is important to Russia and indeed may be the only multilateral player which has any influence on Russia at this moment, so Guterres' presence there was strategic. I'm travelling at the moment and can't check back properly, but I read articles suggesting that BRICS did not give Putin the support he desired and opposed any escalation of his war. A strong reminder on the spot from the UN Secretary General of the illegality of the war is part of that process.

Putin didn't so much as pause attacks on Ukrainian civilians during BRICS. Moreover, the butcher took it upon himself to school Guterres on UN reform "for maintaining peace and security". Pax Putin -- blech.

2:07 ( https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1849381272050614346 )

I remember a good few years ago when Bush and Blair were condemning Thabo Mbeki for not speaking out more strongly against Robert Mugabe's human rights abuses. His response was basically (I'm paraphrasing from memory), "Has your way worked?" Let us not judge too harshly (nor prematurely) those who dare to try a less popular approach, particularly when the violent and confrontational methods being used by the west don't appear to be bearing fruit either.

This got a reaction:

Zelenskyy's new T-shirt riffs on Trump — and annoyed the Kremlin
Mia Jankowicz | October 25, 2024

...Emblazoned on the black T-shirt, in red and white lowercase letters, was the phrase: "Make Russia small again."

...The T-shirt quickly got a reaction from Russia's foreign ministry on X, which cited its spokesperson Maria Zakharova as calling Zelenskyy a "bloody jerk."

"Small as what? The USSR? The Russian Empire?" the spokesperson said. "Oh, I got it! As the Kievan Rus. For that we need Kiev. You said it yourself, bloody jerk."

... As of Thursday, a copycat "make Russia small again" T-shirt was for sale on at least one e-commerce site, but it's unclear whether it will catch on...

https://www.yahoo.com/entertainment/zelenskyys-t-shirt-riffs-trump-141012495.htm...

NASA chief calls for investigation into report that Musk and Putin have spoken regularly
Shania Shelton | October 25, 2024

... Musk has played key role in Ukraine conflict
Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Musk’s support for Ukraine — exemplified by SpaceX’s provision of Starlink services — has diminished as his public statements about the conflict have become further aligned with those of Trump, who has said he would negotiate an end to the war quickly. The satellite internet terminals provided by Musk’s company have been a vital source of communication for Ukraine’s military, allowing it to fight and stay connected even as cellular and internet networks have been destroyed.

Dmitri Alperovitch, a Russia and cybersecurity expert, told CNN’s Alex Marquardt Friday on “CNN News Central” that Musk’s Starlink is “essential to Ukraine in particular because they really could not prosecute this war without” its services.

After Musk trumpeted his early support for Ukraine, SpaceX then abruptly asked the Pentagon to pay tens of millions of dollars per month to fund Starlink in Ukraine and take the burden off SpaceX. In response to that reporting, Musk then abruptly announced on Twitter that he had withdrawn the funding request. Around the same time, Musk used a poll on X to suggest a “Ukraine-Russia Peace” plan that included re-doing elections “under UN supervision” in the regions of the country recently annexed illegally by Russia. After Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky questioned Musk’s preference in the war, the tech entrepreneur responded that he “still very much support(s) Ukraine” but feared “massive escalation.”

SpaceX had previously limited its Starlink signal to areas controlled by Ukrainian forces, hampering potential advances that would have relied on Starlink communications. SpaceX then enlarged it to the rest of the country, and earlier this year, Ukraine’s Defence Intelligence claimed it has confirmed the use of Starlink satellite communications by Russian forces in occupied areas. Russia appeared to be buying the terminals from third parties; SpaceX said it did not do business of any kind with the Russian government or its military and that its service would not work in Russia. The statement didn’t address whether it would work in occupied Ukraine.

Ukraine’s claim followed revelations in a biography of Musk, written by Walter Isaacson, about the satellite system’s use in the war. According to an excerpt from the book, Musk did not grant a Ukrainian request to turn on his company’s Starlink satellite communications network near the Crimean coast last year to disrupt a Ukrainian sneak attack on the Russian naval fleet.

Musk’s decision, which left Ukrainian officials begging him to turn the satellites back on, was driven by an acute fear that Russia would respond to a Ukrainian attack on Crimea with nuclear weapons, a fear driven home by Musk’s conversations with senior Russian officials, according to Isaacson...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/25/politics/elon-musk-vladimir-putin/index.html

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 10:50 PM · Nov 16, 2024
Putin's response to all of the talk of "negotiations"

Quote
Vasyl Myroshnychenko @AmbVasyl | 9:38 PM · Nov 16, 2024
Ambassador of Ukraine to Australia and New Zealand, ex-Advisor to the Minister of Defence. ex-CFC Big Ideas, a stratcom consultancy. LSE and GMF MMF Alumnus.

More than 40 Russian missiles including the hypersonic Kinzhals are in the Ukrainian airspace at the moment. Millions of Ukrainian children and their parents are spending their Sunday morning in bomb shelters. #russiaisaterroriststate
Map https://x.com/AmbVasyl/status/1858021877022863416/photo/1
-----------------------------------------------------------------

Russian drones hunt civilians, evidence suggests
Yogita Limaye, BBC News, in Kherson | 30 October 2024

... war crime ... Evidence of apparent drone attacks on civilians can be seen in numerous videos shared on Ukrainian and Russian social media, six of which were examined by BBC Verify.

In each video, we see through the remote operator’s camera as they track the movements of a pedestrian or motorist in civilian clothing, often dropping grenades which sometimes appear to seriously injure or kill their target.

BBC Verify was also able to identify a Telegram channel which has the earliest public copies yet seen of five of the six videos analysed.

They were each posted with goading and threats to the Ukrainian public, including claims that all vehicles were legitimate targets and that people should minimise their public movement. The injured people were also insulted, called "pigs" or in one case mocked for being a woman...

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c207gz7key6o
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Russia targets Ukraine’s power grid in biggest missile strike in months, officials say
Seven people killed as more than 200 missiles and drones hit Ukraine overnight, while Poland scrambles fighter jets
Dan Sabbagh in Kyiv | 17 Nov 2024

Russia fired more than 200 missile and drones across Ukraine overnight and in the early morning, killing seven people, as Moscow targeted the country’s energy grid in an effort to disrupt power supply as winter looms.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukraine’s president, said about 120 missiles and 90 drones were launched by Russia and that two people were killed and six wounded in a drone strike on the southern city of Mykolaiv.

It was the biggest missile and drone attack on Ukraine since August and the first major Russian assault since the US election, showing the Kremlin in little mood to compromise after the victory of Donald Trump...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/nov/17/russia-targets-ukraines-power-grid...
----------------------------------------------------------------

Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum | 9:13 AM · Nov 12, 2024:

2. And until then - Biden should send all of the allocated weapons, let the Ukrainians hit targets in Russia with American and European missiles, and above all pressure the Europeans to release the $300 billion in frozen Russian assets. No time to lose.

Putin Isn’t Fighting for Land in Ukraine
And Biden has mere weeks to give the Ukrainians the resources they need to fight.
Anne Applebaum | 12 Nov 2024

...“Land for peace” sounds nice, but the president of Russia isn’t fighting for land. Putin is fighting not to conquer Pokrovsk but to destroy Ukraine as a nation. He wants to show his own people that Ukraine’s democratic aspirations are hopeless. He wants to prove that a whole host of international laws and norms, including the United Nations Charter and the Geneva conventions, no longer matter. His goal is not to have peace but to build concentration camps, torture civilians, kidnap 20,000 Ukrainian children, and get away with it—which, so far, he has....

Putin also wants to show that America, NATO, and the West are weak and indecisive, regardless of who is president, and that his brutal regime represents some kind of new global standard. And now, of course, he also needs to show his country that nearly three years of fighting had some purpose, given that this costly, bloody, extended war, officially described as nothing more than a “special military operation,” was supposed to end in a matter of days. Maybe Putin could be interested in stopping the fight for some period of time. Maybe he could be threatened into halting his advance, or bribed with an offer of sanctions relief. But any cease-fire treaty that does not put some obstacle—security guarantees, NATO troops in Ukraine, major rearmament—in the way of another invasion will fail sooner or later because it will simply give Russia an opportunity to rest, rearm, and resume pursuit of the same goals later on.

Putin will truly stop fighting only if he loses the war, loses power, or loses control of his economy. And there is plenty of evidence that he fears all three, despite his troops’ slow movement forward...

{gift article?} https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2024/11/biden-trump-ukraine/68...
-----------------------------------------------------------

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 6:33 PM · Nov 14, 2024

NEW: The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. 🧵(1/5)
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/1
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/2
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/3
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/4
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857250428007878817/photo/5

2/ The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages.

3/ These policies demonstrate that the Russian economy is not as resilient to Western sanctions, monetary constraints, and the cost of the war effort as the Russian government postures.

4/ These policies also demonstrate that the Kremlin will not be able to sustain the protracted war effort for years and decades to come while shielding Russian society from economic challenges.

5/ Consistent Western and international support for Ukraine's resistance on the battlefield will further exacerbate Russia's economic problems.
Read more: http://isw.pub/UkrWar111424

6/ Putin modified compensation promised for Russian servicemen wounded while fighting in Ukraine — a clear indicator that the Kremlin is trying to cut the mounting short- and long-term costs of the war and restore balance to the Russian economy.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857257085328650721/photo/1

7/ The Kremlin's efforts to combat inflation and high interest rates are also reportedly impacting the expansion of the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) and prospects for mobilizing the economy.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857264709008834625/photo/1

8/ The Kremlin is also adopting policies aimed at bolstering the domestic population in the long term, signaling mounting concerns over declining demographics and labor shortages that could threaten the sustainable operations of the Russian DIB.
{text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1857272286077698253/photo/1

Elsewhere, in Russia's playbook:

Terje Helland @terjehelland | 15 Nov 2024:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1857449812724998167.html
Read on X: https://x.com/terjehelland/status/1857449812724998167

Occupied Georgia. Let’s talk about Abkhazia, an occupied part of Georgia. This small, Black Sea coastal territory has been at the center of historical conflicts, ethnic tensions, and geopolitical struggles.
🧵Here is the background and why this week’s unrest matters so much... (25 tweets)
-----------------------------------------------------

Moldova formally protests alleged Russian election meddling
Chisinau accuses Moscow of undermining democratic process and condemned drones flown over its territory.
12 Nov 2024
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/11/12/moldova-formally-protests-alleged-russ...

Ukraine clears 20% of mine-contaminated farmland liberated from Russian forces
Yuri Zoria | 17/11/2024

Russia’s ongoing invasion left 30% of Ukraine contaminated with mines. Large-scale demining, aided by international support, aims to restore farmland...

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/17/ukraine-clears-20-of-mine-contaminated-fa...

Russia vetoes UN Security Council action on Sudan war (Reuters)

Russia on Monday vetoed a United Nations Security Council draft resolution that called on Sudan's warring parties to cease hostilities immediately and ensure the delivery of humanitarian aid. All other countries of the 15-member council, including China, voted in favor of the measure drafted by Britain and Sierra Leone. Russia was the sole member to vote against, in a move that British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said was "mean, nasty and cynical" and sent a message to the warring parties that they can act with impunity...

‘Europe and Canada Must Forget Trump and Form a Coalition of the Willing to Defend Ukraine’
Benjamin Tallis | 19 November 2024

Senior politicians, military leaders and experts send an open letter calling on Europe and Canada to join forces in defending Ukraine from Russian aggression

1. Arm Ukraine to Win
2. Seize ALL the frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine’s victory
3. Extend air defence over Western Ukraine and use it to cover coalition troops on the ground
4. Provide real security guarantees, including mutual defence, to shepherd Ukraine into NATO
5. Show we can stand up for ourselves

https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/19/europe-must-forget-trump-and-form-a-coalition...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:05 AM · Nov 19, 2024:

Two undersea internet cables in the Baltic Sea have been disrupted by sabotage – German Defense Minister Pistorius.

"A very clear sign that something is going on there. No one believes that these cables were accidentally damaged. And I don't want to believe in the versions that anchors are to blame. So we have to conclude, without knowing who did that, that this is a hybrid action. And we also have to assume, without knowing, of course, that this is sabotage," the German minister said.
0:39 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1858828972152234476)

Undersea cable between Lithuania and Sweden damaged
Telia updated | 2024.11.18 19:13

A telecommunications cable running between Lithuania and Sweden in the Baltic Sea has been damaged ... This followed earlier Finnish media reports about an unexplained failure of an undersea cable between Finland and Germany...

https://lrt.lt/en/news-in-english/19/2416006/undersea-cable-between-lithuania-an...

Janis Kluge @jakluge | 4:13 AM · Nov 19, 2024:
Russia & Economics. Deputy Head of Eastern Europe & Eurasia Division. German Institute for International and Security Affairs @SWPBerlin

Russia's economy is in stagnation since February. At the same time, inflation is rising. Over the last 3 years, Russia's economy grew by 1.3% annually (4% in total). Still, it is completely overheated. This shows how sanctions have hurt growth potential.

Graph (https://x.com/jakluge/status/1858846001458557146/photo/1)

https://ecfor.ru/publication/kratkosrochnyj-analiz-dinamiki-vvp-noyabr-2024/

Ukraine fires US-made longer-range missiles into Russia for the first time
Christian Edwards and Kostyantyn Gak | November 19, 2024

... At 3:25 a.m. local time (7:25 p.m. ET) Tuesday, Ukraine fired six ballistic missiles at a facility in Bryansk, the ministry said. It said that American-made ATACMS missiles had been used in the attack.

... President Vladimir Putin updated Russia’s nuclear doctrine – ... Moscow will consider aggression from any non-nuclear state – but with the participation of a nuclear country – a joint attack on Russia.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/19/europe/ukraine-russia-atacms-biden-strike-intl/in...
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Glasnost Gone @GlasnostGone | 6:48 AM · Nov 19, 2024:

... 🇷🇺 Defense Ministry says U.S. ATACMS missiles attacked the below Bryansk region ammo dump & they shot them all down 😉. And the massive explosions were only due to "missile fragments" falling on the depot. 😀 ...

1:15 (https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/video/1)
Aerial photos
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/photo/2
https://x.com/GlasnostGone/status/1858885010625098085/photo/3

https://bbc.com/russian/live/c2k0gpqg57et?post=asset%3A321e4a6e-e5bf-4a96-97bd-9...

Wonder what's up? A Strangelove moment?
(Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964) -- "An unhinged American general orders a bombing attack on the Soviet Union, triggering a path to nuclear holocaust that a war room full of politicians and generals frantically tries to stop.")
What would Xi think?

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:25 AM · Nov 21, 2024:
❗️Putin made a public statement:
◾️ the strike on Ukraine today was made using a new Oreshnik ballistic hypersonic missile - a ballistic missile in a non-nuclear hypersonic warhead in response to Western long-range weapons being used on Russian territory.
◾️Russia has the right to use weapons against the countries that allow to use their weapons against Russian objects.
◾️Russia will continue testing (!) the newest weapon types on the objects it will choose herself.
Photo Putin (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1859649303511257235/photo/1)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:23 AM · Nov 22, 2024:
Putin met with Russian defense ministry leadership and heads of defense production complex.
They listened very unenthusiastically as Putin raved about Oreshnik.
Some of his statements:
◾️Russia's future largely depends on solving the tasks of the "special military operation".
◾️Oreshnik missile is not a modernization of the old systems but a modern, newest development.
◾️There are currently no means of intercepting Oreshnik in the world.
◾️A decision was made to mass-produce the Oreshnik missile. It will be delivered to the strategic missile forces.
◾️Oreshnik is another reliable guarantor of the territorial integrity of Russia.
◾️Russia has a stockpile of ready-to-use systems like Oreshnik.
0:15 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860011340049322209)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 9:29 AM · Nov 22, 2024
"Oreshnik missile can hit targets throughout Europe." - Russian strategic missile forces chief Karakayev at a meeting with Putin.
0:33 (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860012711691845704)
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:02 AM · Nov 22, 2024
The most curious thing about this video are the facial expressions of the officials at the meeting. Putin looks happy. They are clearly not and are thinking hard about something.
Rumors have been circulating since yesterday that there is a serious split among the Kremlin elites, as well as fear of escalation.
Also, information appeared on Russian Telegram channels that today was Putin's first appearance in the Kremlin in the past two weeks. Before today, his location was unclear.
What do you think about their faces?
Photos, mtg attendees
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860021092431131058/photo/1
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860021092431131058/photo/2
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 2:46 AM · Nov 23, 2024
Medvedev unexpectedly changed his nuclear rhetoric yesterday:
and announced that "we are not crazy and we will not use nuclear weapons."
After his repeated demands to use them and turn everything into nuclear ash, this is a rather strong change.
Apparently, the nuclear war advocates in the Kremlin were made quite aware of the fact that there is personal responsibility for such calls.
Photo Medvedev (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860273616245653781/photo/1)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:52 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

Glad to see the increased investment of our allies into domestic Ukrainian production of weapons:

Swedish Defense Minister Pål Jonson @PlJonson, during a meeting with Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umierov, said Sweden would soon allocate "substantial funds" for the mass production of Ukrainian long-range missiles and drones through the Danish model.

Lithuania will finance the production of Ukrainian long-range drones, including the "Palyanytsia" drone missiles. This was announced today alongside a long-term agreement on the establishment of a mechanism to support the security and defense forces of Ukraine. €10 million has already been agreed on and will arrive in the near future.

Thank you to our Nordic partners!
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:02 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

The Kremlin is once again using a time-tested tactic: distracting its citizens with dramatic, attention-grabbing spectacles during times of crisis or unpopular reforms. The recent surge in nuclear rhetoric is a textbook example.

While everybody in Russia is watching the “nuclear threat ping pong”, they overlook the catastrophic fall of the ruble. This is exactly what the Kremlin wants.

At the time of writing, the ruble stands at about 104 per US dollar, its lowest value since March 2022, with further declines expected. This is very bad news for the average Russian, as a weaker ruble drives inflation, worsening an already dire situation. But they are distracted from this reality by the Kremlin’s nuclear saber-rattling.

Why is Moscow downplaying the ruble’s collapse?

▪️The Russian central bank is deliberately letting the ruble depreciate to sustain the staggering war economy. The federal budget faces a 3.3 trillion ruble deficit in 2025, with another 10 trillion rubles—1.5 trillion for military expenses—needed before the end of this year.

▪️The Finance Ministry aimed to sell 4.1 trillion rubles in federal bonds to cover the shortfall but managed only half that. Banks are hesitant, with sales goals for Q2 and Q3 at 50% and Q4 below 10%. Now, the ministry has just six weeks to find 2 trillion rubles, with limited options: either devalue the currency or freeze and seize deposits, both at the expense of Russian citizens.

▪️Despite its self-reliance narrative, Russia heavily depends on imports: 70% of non-food products, 75% of equipment, pharmaceuticals, and medical devices. The reliance is lower for food, about 25% - but given the attempts of the Ministry of Agriculture to lower the prices for basic foodstuffs by importing more, the devaluation of the ruble will increase the prices for most basic goods.

▪️High interest rates have pushed citizens to deposit an extra 7 trillion rubles into savings in 2024. With the ruble in freefall, the deposits lose their value rapidly – but Russians will not be allowed to withdraw their money for fear of a bank panic.

The current exchange rate of the ruble is likely to become a permanent fixture of the Russian war economy. The budget is exhausted, and new revenue sources are scarce. Economists predict a return to the record-low exchange rate of 121 rubles per dollar, seen at the start of the full-scale invasion, within two years. The Finance Ministry’s ambitious GDP growth target (+60 trillion rubles by 2027) is only feasible through continued devaluation of the ruble.
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 5:29 AM · Nov 23, 2024:

Z-bloggers report that General-Colonel Gennady Anashkin has been removed from his position as commander of the Russian Southern Group of Forces. The alleged reason is the "situation on the Siversk front" and his "unwillingness to inform the higher command about the true state of affairs."

According to Russian sources, General Anashkin provided false information to higher command, leading to significant losses for the Russian army in futile assaults near the settlement of Siversk. "Just recently, false reports came from Siversk about supposed successful breakthroughs, followed by poorly prepared column attacks on enemy positions, resulting in heavy losses and minimal gains."

Photo Anashkin (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860314717023076539)

Russia's New Missile: What it Means for Ukraine & the rest of the World w/Ted Postol, MIT Theodore Postol
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ks7xw5Fcxpw
The meat:
https://youtu.be/ks7xw5Fcxpw?si=EKh5ZouVcSOC0VYm&t=1890
Bottom line:
https://youtu.be/ks7xw5Fcxpw?si=i8vu3OvwaOcVhUxI&t=1985

Amb. Freeman's take on the burgeoning missile crisis:
https://www.youtube.com/live/BGbxwTDAavU?si=D_lW7AeHqKtfCz6I&t=1888 Chas Freeman

And Col. Wilkerson:
https://www.youtube.com/live/XBSqv9m2Lyk?si=qB921vc9VZOSY4Rd&t=1879
With remarks on Spokesman Rear Adm. Buchanan's provocative statement: (partially reported here - https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/pentagon-open-to-nuclear-response-following... )
https://www.youtube.com/live/XBSqv9m2Lyk?si=-yg6WtK1B8n18sHb&t=2100

>32 margd: Medvedev: never mind(?)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:59 AM · Nov 24, 2024:

Maybe they are “crazy” after all? Talking about the launch of Oreshnik on his Telegram channel, Dmitri Medvedev goes back to his usual rhetoric and threatens European countries with “catastrophic damage”:

“Modern means cannot intercept them, and we're talking about minutes {to reach European capitals}. Bomb shelters won’t help, so the only hope is that a benevolent Russia would warn about launches in advance.”

Photo Medvedev (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860669667926327358/photo/1)

Anton Gerashchenko
@Gerashchenko_en
Russian Orthodox Church could be a cover for Russian spies in Europe, - OSINT investigation by Molfar.

Russian spies are active in Europe – there is no argument. However, a new investigation uncovers the potential for espionage under the cover of religious activities of the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) across the EU.

🇸🇪Sweden. In Västerås, the Russian Orthodox Church built a temple suspiciously close to numerous strategic facilities. Led by priest Pavel Makarenko, the Church has been funded in part by Rosatom, the Russian state atomic energy corporation, despite efforts to conceal this link.

The location of the church is strategically significant. It is near an airport, energy facilities, and Westinghouse Electric’s nuclear fuel production plant. Analysts suggest that the church's proximity to these sensitive sites is no coincidence. The priest, Makarenko, also has ties to suspicious Russian business activities in Sweden. Similar patterns emerge in other Swedish cities like Uppsala, Stockholm, and Göteborg, where ROC temples are consistently located near military and governmental sites.

🇫🇮Finland. Here, concerns about the Russian Orthodox Church’s (ROC) activities have focused on Igumen Nikita, a cleric reportedly aligned with the Moscow Patriarchate. His church in Turku was closed in 2022 due to growing suspicions about its ties to the Moscow Patriarchate and potential dissemination of pro-Russian narratives amidst the ongoing war in Ukraine. But that remains a standalone case, where suspicious church activity was halted.

A pattern similar to Sweden repeats here, with churches placed in proximity of strategic objects of military and infrastructural importance.

🇨🇿Czechia. In Prague, the state-owned Russian company "Gazprom Neft" partially funded the decoration of the Cathedral of Saints Cyril and Methodius, which belongs to the Michalovce-Košice Diocese of the Orthodox Church of the Czech Lands and Slovakia. Archbishop Christophoros of Prague awarded Dmitry Malyshev, the advisor to the chairman of the board of "Gazprom Neft," for his assistance to the Church.

These are just a few examples analyzed by Molfar.

Source: https://molfar.com/blog/rpc-shpygue-u-evropi-doslidzhennya-molfar-chastyna-persh...

Photo Putin and church leader (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1860666137089917362/photo/1)

Putin’s Assassination Targets Revealed in Declassified Memo
Jason Leopold | November 22, 2024

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has released a long-classified memorandum shedding light on the targeted killings of Vladimir Putin’s political adversaries, following nearly eight years of persistent public records efforts ...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2024-11-22/putin-s-assassination-targ...
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Russian Ballet Dancer Critical of Putin Falls to His Death
Amethyst Martinez | Nov. 18 2024

In February 2022, at the beginning of Russia’s invasion in Ukraine, the dancer spoke out against the violence. “I am against the war in Ukraine!”

https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-ballet-dancer-vladimir-shklyarov-critical-...

The new Russian missile is nothing new. It is a ballistic missile, go straight up into the atmosphere, travel a distance and then go straight down and enormous speed due to gravity, split into numerous parts and hit a large area. very difficult to stop. As it is intended to be a nuclear armed weapon accuracy is not really an issue and it is not. When it is used as now with ordinary explosives it is a very expensive way to deliver a handful of bombs to a Ukrainian city. It is not accurate enough to target military positions but against large civilian targets it will do fine, killing many. It is basically the modern version of the V2 rockets of Germany during WW2.

It is just another of Putins terror weapons that are supposed to scare the west a bit, and kill Ukrainians. Just Putin waving his nuclear threat a bit to deter aid to Ukraine. Nothing to worry about for us. For the Ukrainians getting maimed or kill it is another matter of course.

>38 Ardagor: A new intermediate-range missile crisis is indeed something to worry about. We're on track to repeat that error.

https://responsiblestatecraft.org/germany-united-states-missiles/
https://www.reuters.com/world/us-believes-russias-attack-ukraine-showcased-new-m...

Western officials suspect Russia was behind a plot to put incendiary packages on cargo planes
VANESSA GERA | November 5, 2024

WARSAW, Poland (AP) — Western security officials suspect Russian intelligence was behind a plot to put incendiary devices in packages on cargo planes headed to North America, including one that caught fire at a courier hub in Germany and another that ignited in a warehouse in England.

Poland said last month that it has arrested four people suspected to be linked to a foreign intelligence operation that carried out sabotage and is searching for two others. Lithuania’s prosecutor general Nida Grunskiene said Tuesday there were an unspecified number of people detained in several countries, offering no elaboration...

https://apnews.com/article/russia-poland-germany-sabotage-cargo-planes-b7f559805...
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SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre @StratcomCentre | 4:03 AM · Nov 25, 2024:
Spreading the truth, fighting fakes and shooting down propaganda. The Centre for Strategic Communication and Information Security of Ukraine.

After the Russian GRU is caught trying to blow up DHL planes in Europe, a DHL plane blows up in Europe.

Police in Lithuania today saying the "possibility of a terrorist attack cannot be ruled out", after a DHL flight crashes in this morning in Vilnius.

0:16 (https://x.com/StratcomCentre/status/1860972644453032275)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 7:42 AM · Nov 2, 2024:

Financial Times: South Korea considers direct military support for Ukraine, which could prove decisive in the war against Russia

South Korea has supported Ukraine throughout the war by providing humanitarian aid and helping replenish U.S. artillery supplies. However, South Korea’s policy only permits weapon exports for “peaceful purposes,” so it has not sent lethal aid directly to Ukraine. Recently, news of North Korean troops joining Russian forces has led Seoul to reconsider its stance.

Key points to consider:

▪️President Yoon Suk Yeol, known for his “hardline” approach to North Korea, sees this deployment as a serious security threat, fearing it could give North Korean troops combat experience and lead to Russia sharing advanced military technology with Pyongyang.

▪️The leftist opposition in South Korea, which holds a majority in parliament, is strongly against any interference by their country in what they see as a “proxy war in a faraway land”. They fear that South Korean cooperation with Ukraine may lead to escalation and even potential war on the Korean peninsula.

▪️The Korean society is not very supportive of the idea of supplying weapons to Ukraine, either. Only 13% of South Koreans want their country to provide lethal aid, while 66% prefer focusing on humanitarian aid.

▪️Since the Korean war in the 1950’s, Seoul has built an impressive military industry to deter their Northern neighbor. In fact, simply in the act of replenishing US supplies sent to Ukraine, South Korea has supplied more weapons than all European countries combined. If they choose to supply lethal aid directly to Ukraine, they can turn the tides in this war, experts think.

▪️President Zelenskyy plans to send a delegation to Seoul to request artillery and air defense systems. The decision on whether or not to fill this request depends on the intensification of cooperation between Russia and North Korea. South Korea’s decision will likely depend on whether Russia is confirmed to be sharing advanced military technologies with North Korea.

The North Korean deployment may not have a decisive effect on the battlefield, but it can seriously tip the scales on the international arena.

Source: https://ft.com/content/e7ca9021-1321-46c8-9b0c-2009a4c0dd50
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:32 AM · Nov 25, 2024:

Deputy Foreign Minister of Russia Andrey Rudenko called on South Korean to "soberly assess the situation and refrain from reckless steps".

"Seoul must realize that the possible use of South Korean weapons to kill Russian citizens will fully destroy relations between our countries. Of course, we will respond in every way that we find necessary. It is unlikely that this will strengthen the security of the Republic of Korea itself," Rudenko noted.

"I hope that the administration of the Republic of Korea will be guided primarily by long-term national interests, and not by short-term opportunistic considerations prompted from outside," he added.

In my opinion, long-term national interests of South Korea will benefit from military aid to Ukraine and helping us defeat Russia. And I think Russia realizes this, too.

Photo Russian deputy minister (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1861040175381369186/photo/1)

Stockpile diapers, medication, baby food: NATO members Sweden and Finland advise citizens on how to survive war
Sana Noor Haq | November 18, 2024

... Booklets distributed to millions of households in the Nordic nations include instructions on how to prepare for the effects of military conflicts, communications outages and power cuts, as well as extreme weather events.

From stockpiling bottled water and sanitary products, to growing edible foodstuffs at home, government authorities offered tips on how residents could sustain themselves in the event of war. The brochures also include advice for parents and caregivers, instructing people to preserve diapers, medication and baby food...

https://www.cnn.com/2024/11/18/europe/nato-sweden-finland-wartime-guidance-intl/...
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Pekka Kallioniemi @P_Kallioniemi | 11:27 AM · Nov 24, 2024
Vatnik Soup. The Ultimate Guide to Russian Disinformation {Finland}

Russia would not dare invade Finland. We are too strong.

- Our wartime military strength is around 280 000 trained men
- Finland has heavily forested terrain and over 187 000(!) lakes larger than five ares
- Largest artillery capability in western Europe
- Military doctrine of total defence, meaning that all sectors of the government and economy are involved in the defence planning
- Over 50 000 civil defence shelters with space for a total of almost 5 million people
- Our homeland defence willingness against a superior enemy is at 83%, one of the highest rates in Europe
- Our security of supply is one of the highest in the world
- We are also in close collaboration with out NATO allies

All this was planned long ago, because we know our neighbor. And I'm not talking about Sweden...

Bill Madden @maddenifico | 10:18 PM · Nov 25, 2024:
This is huge. The European Union is stepping up against Putin and Russia. {airspace, propaganda, Belarus too} 🙌🙏💪👏👊👇

1:02 (https://x.com/maddenifico/status/1861248012674093315)

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:24 AM · Nov 26, 2024:

There are clear signs that Russian economy is headed toward a collapse:

◾️ Resources are being used to the maximum. This means they will be increasingly expensive for enterprises, and not everyone will be able to afford them.

◾️ Prices are increasing, and the Russian Central Bank cannot stop them. Last week, according to Rosstat, inflation rose again: up to 0.37% (a week earlier, it was 0.30%). To slow down price growth, it is necessary either to stop economic growth and budget expenditures (infusions in the military-industrial complex, etc.) or put up with inflation rates above the target, the Russian Academy of Sciences said.

◾️ Only certain industries are growing in Russia, primarily machinery. In other words, what the budget pays huge amounts of money for and what goes to be destroyed in Ukraine is on the rise. This means that the money poured into industry does not bring anything to the economy except for the figures that are pleasant to the ear of the authorities. But even this growth has already been exhausted, as next year, GDP will increase by only 0.5-1%, and the growth rates of investments and private consumption may go to zero.

◾️ The International Monetary Fund predicts that the Russian economy will slow down threefold, from 3.9% growth this year to 1.3% next year. This is three and a half times less than in developed countries and 5-6 times less than in China or India.

◾️ A total of 4,363 legal Russian entities were declared bankrupt in the first six months of 2024, which is 40% more than in the same period a year earlier. And this is with the declared economic growth of 4%. What will happen at the economic growth of 0.5%, as predicted by the Central Bank? Mass bankruptcies and the economy of the early 90s - lots of tanks, nothing to eat?
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Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 11:03 AM · Nov 25, 2024

I recommend reading through. The overall picture is very telling.

‼️ Bankruptcies, losses, and optimization of the largest and most important enterprises and banks are happening in Russia.
:
In 2025, Russians will face a new series of losses and bankruptcies. The reason is not only sanctions restrictions but also growing problems inside Russia.

◾️ Rusal, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, announced the start of production optimization - it will be reduced by 250 thousand tons in the first stage. The company explained the decision of optimization by "record prices for raw materials and high risks of a continued negative macroeconomic environment."

◾️ Major Russian mining and metals company Mechel announced the suspension of one of its enterprises - Olzherasskaya-Novaya mine in Mezhdurechensk. The reason is problems with the sales market.

◾️ Major Russian corporation PJSC Gazprom made a record net loss of $6.1 billion in 2023, becoming Russia's most unprofitable company for the first time in 25 years.

◾️ ALROSA (Russian group of diamond mining companies) reduced its revenue under Russian Accounting Standards (RAS) by 30% and net profit by 3 times in 9 months. The net loss amounted to 6.5 billion rubles ($62,7 million).

◾️ Baltika brewing company is among the top ten most unprofitable companies in Russia in 2024. In 2022, the company's revenue was about 100 billion rubles ($965 million). In 2023, the net loss was 28.1 billion rubles ($271,1 million). The option of filling the budget by nationalizing profitable private enterprises has failed.

◾️ PJSC KAMAZ's net loss for the first nine months of 2024 amounted to 3.8 billion rubles ($36,6 million) against a profit of 15.8 billion rubles ($152,4 million) for the same period last year, according to financial statements published on the company's website.

◾️ AvtoVAZ automobile manufacturing company is talking about possible bankruptcy and debts of over 100 billion rubles ($965 million). This is due to the increase of the Russian key rate.

◾️ Rosneft CEO Igor Sechin is going to classify data on Russian oil exports and the production volumes of Russian refineries ostensibly to protect Russia's national interests from "unfriendly actions" by the USA and other Western countries. In reality, it is to hide the crisis in this field.

◾️ Sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, the major bank, and fifty other banks. Sanctions were also imposed against the Russian System for Transfer of Financial Messages (SPFS, sort of Russian analog of the international SWIFT messaging system).

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 1:30 PM · Dec 14, 2023
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

NEW: The US has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think.
As Americans consider the costs of continuing to help Ukraine fight the Russians in the coming years, they deserve a careful consideration of the costs of allowing Russia to win. 🧵(1/19) ...

On X: https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1735366664764702978
---------------------------------------

The High Price of Losing Ukraine:
Part 1 — Military-Strategic & Financial Implications of Russian Victory
Part 2 — The Military Threat and Beyond
Dec 14, 2023 - ISW Press
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/high-price-losing-ukraine-part-1-%...

Why Russia's Africa propaganda warrior was sent home (BBC)

Dodging bullets, ducking explosions, safeguarding state secrets. Bombastic propaganda films present the shadowy Russian political operative Maxim Shugalei as a heroic figure - who will apparently stop at nothing in his quest to promote the country abroad. While his escapades have no doubt been exaggerated, in real life he has played a significant role in the expansion of Russia's influence in parts of Africa, working closely with the Wagner Group of Russian mercenaries. However, this would-be iron man recently suffered a set-back when he was arrested in the central African nation of Chad. He, along with fellow Russian operatives Samer Sueifan and E Tsaryov, were detained in September on unexplained charges, before being freed and sent home earlier this month, according to the Russian embassy... he is a spin doctor and an agent of Russian influence known for his work on the African continent. He has been under EU sanctions since 2023 for overseeing disinformation campaigns to promote the Wagner Group in several African countries, and is also the subject of Ukrainian sanctions. Since at least 2010, Shugalei was affiliated with the late Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, the Wagner boss and a close associate of President Vladimir Putin...

Russia tries to stem panic over the plummeting ruble, as the central bank is forced to intervene
Holly Ellyatt | Nov 28 2024

Key Points
Russian authorities are trying to stem panic over the ruble’s sharp fall this week, with the central bank stepping in to suspend the currency in a situation, while Kremlin flagged an unnecessary “panic.”
The ruble weakened to 114 against the greenback — its the lowest level since March 2022, shortly after Russia invaded Ukraine.
Russia’s central bank was forced to intervene on Wednesday to try to prop up the flailing currency.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/28/russia-tries-to-stem-panic-over-plummeting-ruble...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 12:00 PM · Nov 30, 2024:

Donald Trump has confirmed the appointment of General Keith Kellogg as US special envoy for the Russian-Ukrainian War.

Earlier, Kellogg offered Trump his plan to "freeze" the conflict. His main proposals were:

◾️ Washington will supply Ukraine with weapons to prevent new Russian attacks only if Kyiv agrees to peace talks;
◾️ The United States will warn Moscow that if it refuses to negotiate, Washington will increase aid to Kyiv;
◾️ to push Russia into the talks, the United States and other NATO countries will postpone the question of Ukraine's membership indefinitely in exchange for a "comprehensive and verifiable peace deal with security guarantees";
◾️ Ukraine will not be required to give up its intention to return all its territories seized by Russia. However, Kyiv must agree that only diplomatic means will be used to achieve this goal and that the process may take a long time;
◾️ in order to get Russia to agree to the deal, the plan proposes to partially lift sanctions imposed on it but, at the same time, impose levy on Russian energy exports to finance Ukraine's reconstruction;
◾️ the plan also contains a proposal to freeze the front line and introduce a demilitarized zone.

This does not mean this plan is final and will be adopted in this form.

Today, we are at the peak of uncertainty, at a bifurcation point.

Strategic uncertainty is exacerbated by escalation. Today, no one can say what the future will look like, what decisions will be made, and to what extent escalation may reach.

"Black swans" appear, such as the situation in Syria.

Uncertainty increases mass anxiety, which provokes panic, so it is important to try to maintain mental stability and the ability to critically analyze the situation.

Photo (https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1862904426710831576/photo/1)

Trey Yingst @TreyYingst | 1:08 PM · Dec 25, 2024:
Chief Foreign Correspondent │ @FoxNews Photojournalism │ @XperienceHumans
NYT Bestselling Author │ Black Saturday

Russia launched 70 missiles and 100 drones into Ukraine on Christmas morning. 1035 days of war.

Russia-linked cable-cutting tanker seized by Finland ‘was loaded with spying equipment’
Listening equipment was placed on Eagle S and related tanker Swiftsea Rider to monitor Nato naval and aircraft activities, Lloyd’s List was told
Michelle Wiese Bockmann | 27 Dec 2024

“Eagle S, the Russia-linked tanker suspected of damaging an … electricity cable on Christmas Day, was kitted out with special transmitting & receiving devices … used to monitor naval activity, according to a source with direct involvement in the ship”

‘“Russians, Turkish, Indian radio officers were operating it.” Eagle S also dropped “sensors-type devices” in the English Channel during a transit, they said.’

“an unauthorised person, who was not a seafarer, had been identified on board Eagle S…listening and recording equipment was brought on … via “huge portable suitcases” along with “many laptops” that had keyboards for Turkish and Russian … when calling at Türkiye and Russia”

“The hi-tech equipment on board was abnormal for a merchant ship and consumed more power from the ship’s generator, leading to repeated blackouts, a source familiar with the vessel who provided commercial maritime services to it as recently as seven months ago.”

https://www.lloydslist.com/LL1151955/Russia-linked-cable-cutting-tanker-seized-b...

WarTranslated (Dmitri) @wartranslated | 5:11 PM · Dec 26, 2024:

After all the threats to Poland, an enraged Putin, frustrated by Ukraine’s suspension of gas transit, is now seriously proposing that Poland restore gas transit through its territory via the Yamal-Europe pipeline.

0:34 (https://x.com/wartranslated/status/1872405012724568141)
--------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 3:47 AM · Dec 27, 2024:

Medvedev made yet another disgusting statement on his Telegram channel:

“Europe must be punished by all means available to us: political, economic and all kinds of hybrid means. And that is why it is necessary to help any destructive processes in Europe. Long live the aggressive pogromists on its historic streets! Long live the crowds of migrants who commit atrocities and hatefully destroy the rainbow European values! May all the disgusting faces of European bureaucrats disappear in the stream of future civil clashes!”

‘I don’t want flowers, I want my Ukraine’: women’s acts of resistance against Russian occupation (Guardian)

On 8 March 2023, International Women’s Day, Russian soldiers were handing out tulips and boughs of mimosa to women and girls in the city of Melitopol, southern Ukraine – a move designed to promote friendly relations between the occupiers and the inhabitants. But the night before, someone had been discreetly sticking posters to walls and lamp-posts. They bore the image of a young Ukrainian woman, dressed in a traditional embroidered shirt, smashing a bouquet over a Russian soldier’s head. “I don’t want flowers,” read the slogan. “I want my Ukraine.” This was one of the earliest acts of a women’s resistance movement in Russian-occupied Ukraine that claims hundreds of members, from Crimea in the south to the Luhansk region in the east...

Can Ukraine face another year of war? (BBC)

Ukraine is losing the battle on the ground. Many of its soldiers are tired and exhausted after three years of fighting. The question – can the country endure another year of war?...Opinion polls too suggest there's increasing support for negotiations... Some of the strongest calls for a ceasefire come from those who've been forced to flee the fighting... "It's already clear no one will win militarily, that is why we need negotiations"...

The Illusion of Russian Security in Africa Has Been Shattered
Samuel Ramani, the CEO of Pangea Geopolitical Risk and an associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute | December 31, 2024

The country’s inaction in Syria has dealt a blow to confidence in its regional power.

The overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad dealt a crushing blow to Russia’s aspirations to great-power status. Due to its military overextension in Ukraine and intelligence failures prior to the rapid-fire offensive carried out by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), Russia was unable to defend its strongest ally in the Middle East.

Russia also faces the loss of its Tartus naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast as well as Khmeimim air base, which was established in tandem with its 2015 military intervention on Assad’s behalf. Satellite imagery reveals that Russia has evacuated large numbers of military personnel and equipment from its Syrian bases and has withdrawn from the interior regions of the country. At the end of December, Russian forces were only present at Khmeimim air base and the Tartus port, and Ukrainian intelligence indicates that Russia plans to fully withdraw troops by February 2025.

Though these setbacks mar President Vladimir Putin’s foreign-policy legacy and weaken Russia’s standing in the Middle East, they could also have a profoundly negative impact on its influence in Africa ...

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/31/russia-syria-africa-assad-security-military...

U.S. accuses Russia of funding both sides of Sudan's war (Reuters)

Summary

-U.S. says aware of Russia's "ongoing interest" in Sudan's gold
-Russia says U.S. judges other world powers by own yardstick
-U.S. envoy to U.N. disappointed she couldn't do more for Sudan...

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | February 5, 2025 at 2:56 AM:

"They said, ’Here's a donkey. Is the situation with transportation sh*tty for u? It is. Are the Ural trucks burning? They are.' They gave a real live donkey!"

The Russian defense ministry gave one of the Russian units a donkey instead of a normal vehicle to bring ammunition to the frontline
Poor donkey

0:51 English subtitles
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3lhg3vtlrbc22

Sudan says plan for first Russian naval base in Africa will go ahead (Guardian)

A plan for Russia to establish its first naval base in Africa will go ahead, Sudan’s foreign minister has confirmed, after years of delays over the Red Sea military port. If the agreement is implemented, Russia would join the US and China in the region; they have bases to the south in Djibouti...

Billions of people around the world are being forced to deal with two despicable and powerful leaders who are on revenge missions. Trump is furious because he believes lawbreaking is a presidential right that puts him above all others. Putin wants revenge for land divisions that took place following WWII. To say the situation is worrisome is the understatement of the century.

Bloomberg News ‪@bloomberg.com‬ | February 16, 2025 at 11:55 AM:
The US has offered Ukraine a one-sided deal to secure access to Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals after the war, but has not guaranteed that Ukraine would be permitted to participate in peace talks.

Trump Aide {National Security Advisor Mike Waltz} Says Americans Deserve ‘Payback’ for Ukraine Support
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-02-16/trump-aide-says-americans-des...
-----------------------------------------------------

Adam Kinzinger ‪@adamkinzinger.bsky.social‬ | February 16, 2025 at 11:55 AM

Fact check: nearly 70 percent of US money for Ukraine actually went to US defense industry to replenish the stocks of OLD stuff that went to Ukraine to use.

Much of which we would have paid to destroy as their lifespan expired.

Adam Kinzinger ‪@adamkinzinger.bsky.social‬ | February 16, 2025 at 11:47 AM

Here’s a better peace plan for Ukraine.

“Russia, you’ve already sustained twice as many casualties as the US did in ww2. Leave Ukraine or suffer four times more, and collapse as a country in the process”

Done
___________________________________

"The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) found that more Russian soldiers died in the first year of the war in Ukraine than in all its other wars since World War II combined, an average 5,000 to 5,800 soldiers a month, vs 13,000 to 25,000 in Chechnya over 15 years and 14,000 to 16,000 in Afghanistan. Thus, the first year of the Ukraine war was 25 times deadlier than Chechnya and 35 times more so than Afghanistan."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Casualties_of_the_Russo-Ukrainian_War
--------------------------------------------------

"The Communist government in Russia disintegrated due to economic pressures, the war in Afghanistan and revolt in Eastern Europe."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/zq63b9q/revision/1

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | February 18, 2025 at 4:29 AM

The EU will announce the largest military aid package for Ukraine, probably next week: about €700 billion

“We will launch a large package that has never been seen on this scale before," German Foreign Minister @abaerbock.diplo.de said, calling it "the financial package for security in Europe."

Aaron Rupar ‪@atrupar.com‬ | February 19, 2025 at 11:24 AM:
Congrats, America. We're now on Putin's side.

Photo of "TRUMP" Truth {not} | Feb 17, 2025, 9:47 AM
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3lik6te6rzc2o

Arnaud Bertrand
@RnaudBertrand
This is an absolute must-read by Singaporean diplomat
@mahbubani_k
who proposes a path forward for Europe: https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/02/18/europe-eu-nato-us-russia-ukraine/

First of all, he argues that "Brussels has slavishly followed Washington for too long" and that European leaders have become so pathetic that "they are licking the boots that are kicking them in the face."

He says that it is shocking, and even a display of "infantile strategic thinking", that "Europeans didn’t anticipate the quagmire they’re in". They based "all European strategic thinking on the best-case scenario of the United States being a totally reliable ally", despite the US's proven history of being anything but.

To him, "the only way to restore Europe’s geopolitical standing is to consider three unthinkable options":

1) "Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO"

He argues that "a Europe that is forced to spend 5 percent on defense is a Europe that doesn’t need the United States", given that this "amounts to $1.1 trillion", which is more than the U.S.'s own defense spending.

This is exactly right: why exactly would Europe remain under subservience to the U.S. if it increases its military budget, as Trump wishes it to? And also, why would it spend this budget on U.S. equipment when it can use it to prop up its own economy? It makes no sense.

2) "Work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia"

He dismisses the false notion that "Russia represents a real security threat to the EU countries" and effectively proposes to out-Trump Trump: why let him work out a grand strategic bargain at the expense of Europe, when Europe can negotiate "fair compromise with (Russia), respecting current borders between Russia and the EU and a realistic compromise on Ukraine that doesn’t threaten either side’s core interests"?

If a grand bargain is on the cards, Europe has evidently much more to lose by letting Trump negotiate it. And much more to gain by negotiating it themselves too: after all Russia is their neighbor, not the U.S.'s...

3) "Work out a new strategic compact with China"

Mahbubani writes that when push comes to shove the only reason for the downturn in EU-China relations is because "the Europeans foolishly believed that a slavish loyalty to American geopolitical priorities would lead to rich geopolitical dividends for them." But instead "they have been kicked in the face."

He also points out that "China can help the EU deal with its real long-term geopolitical nightmare: the demographic explosion in Africa." And that "unless Africa develops its economies, there will be a surge of African migrants into Europe." As such "Europeans should welcome any foreign investment in Africa that creates jobs" and not, as they're currently doing "shooting themselves in the foot by criticizing and opposing China’s investment in Africa" (which he says "demonstrates how naive long-term European strategic thinking has become").

To conclude he reiterates that "Brussels is sacrificing its own strategic interests to serve American interests in the hope that geopolitical subservience would lead to rewards", but "clearly, it hasn’t."

Europe should draw the right lessons and "carry out the currently unthinkable option: Declare that henceforth it will be a strategically autonomous actor on the world stage that will put its own interests first. Trump may finally show some respect for Europe if it does that."

Nothing to add, he nails it!

Kishore Mahbubani

How Vladimir Putin plans to play Donald Trump
The Russian president thinks he is the better poker player

... Mr Trump wants to end a “ridiculous” war, but he has no plan. In theory his options range from cutting off Ukraine’s arms supplies to giving it back nuclear weapons. But it is easier to exert pressure on Ukraine than on Russia, so he has adopted the Kremlin’s talking-points. This week he blamed Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, for starting the war and denounced him as “a dictator”. Mr Putin has long wanted to get rid of Mr Zelensky; so now so does Mr Trump.

These open-ended talks suit Mr Putin just fine. Whereas Mr Trump views them as a way to end a war, Mr Putin sees them as a stage in a larger conflict. The Russian leader calculates he has more staying power than Ukraine or NATO. Like a poker player, Mr Putin excels in projecting confidence and strength. In reality, his cards are not as strong as he would like his opponents to believe, while an end to the war could create complications for him at home. He needs Mr Trump’s help.

... {Russia's} army has performed dismally ... In April 2022, following Russia’s retreat from the north of Ukraine, it controlled 19.6% of Ukrainian territory (see chart); its casualties (dead and wounded) were perhaps 20,000. Today Russia occupies 19.2% and its casualties are 800,000, reckon British sources ... The attrition of equipment is jaw-dropping.

... Russia’s economy has withstood the blow of sanctions thanks to the professionalism of its central bank, high commodity prices and fiscal stimulus. Yet the reallocation of resources from productive sectors to the military complex has fuelled double-digit inflation. Interest rates are 21%. The shortage of labour is an acute problem ... Such vulnerabilities mean some in the West believe this is the worst possible time for America to be floating rapid concessions to the Kremlin...

... Mr Putin believes Mr Trump is not just impatient, but open to manipulation, and he is playing him like a fiddle...

... Even if the hot war ends, Mr Putin will continue to try to cripple Europe and re-establish Russia’s sphere of influence...

... Mr Putin’s priority is to stay in power. Ending the war entails its own risks, including the return of hundreds of thousands of soldiers; and a fight among different clans. Mr Trump’s diplomacy has given oxygen to moderates who had silently opposed the war. They lack political power, but these “beneficiaries of peace”—private businessmen, economists and some technocrats—hope Mr Trump and his team can change Russia’s trajectory. Unable to confront Mr Putin, they want to persuade him that cooling the confrontation with the West would enhance rather than endanger his security.

On the other side are the “beneficiaries of war”. If confrontation is the foundation of the Putin regime, violence and corruption are its glue. Oligarchic clans benefit from quotas for exporting oil and other commodities in grey markets created by sanctions. They will not part with their lucrative franchises lightly. The security services will also be searching for turbo-patriots who will see any deal as a betrayal.

Mr Trump is right to want to stop the killing. If a ceasefire lets Ukraine rebuild, spurs higher European defence spending and keeps some sanctions on Russia’s creaking economy, it could also see Mr Putin’s ambitions fail. Mr Putin, however, is betting that he can fight on for longer than Ukraine can, or that he can manoeuvre Mr Trump into a deal that allows Russia to reintegrate back into the world economy, renders Ukraine a divided and semi-failing state, and leaves Europe too stunned and isolated to defend itself.

https://www.economist.com/europe/2025/02/18/how-vladimir-putin-plans-to-play-don...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/former-intelligence-officer-claims-kgb-150001979.html

Former Intelligence Officer Claims KGB Recruited Trump

A former Soviet intelligence officer has alleged that Donald Trump was recruited by the KGB in 1987 and given the codename “Krasnov.”

Alnur Mussayev, 71, a former head of intelligence in Kazakhstan and before that a Soviet KGB officer, made the explosive claim in a Facebook post on Thursday. He claimed that he served in the 6th Directorate of the KGB in Moscow, which was responsible for counter-intelligence support within the economy. One of its key objectives, he claimed, was “recruiting businessmen from capitalist countries.”

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | February 22, 2025 at 3:41 AM

In case you missed the news from this night:

◾️If the deal on Ukraine's rare earth minerals is not reached, the USA might turn off Starlinks for Ukraine -Reuters

◾️The rare earth agreement between the USA&Ukraine might be signed today -Wall Street Journal. Its details are unknown at the moment.
____________________________________

Mark Cuban ‪@mcuban.bsky.social‬ | February 21, 2025 at 9:34 PM
We can agree that it's shameful if it comes to fruition. I dont think there is any chance it does. I don't understand why people don't believe Zelensky is as good a negotiator as Mexico or Canada. He knows you give Trump the PR win and move on

‪West Side Rob‬ ‪@westsiderob.bsky.social‬ · 7h
Saw your earlier post Mark, and under any other circumstances I might agree with you —in principle. But this entire resource grab is being conducted under duress, and for that, I can’t in any way support my government’s conduct. In fact, I’m ashamed by it.
____________________________________

‘It’s blackmail’: Ukrainians react to Trump demand for $500bn share of minerals
Luke Harding | 22 Feb 2024

Ukraine’s lithium deposits are among biggest in Europe and the US is looking for ‘payback’ for previous military assistance...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/feb/22/its-blackmail-ukrainians-react-to-...

UN general assembly backs resolution condemning Russia for Ukraine war (Guardian)

US, Russia, Belarus and North Korea vote against resolution as 93 countries vote in favor, spurning rival US resolution...

>67 John5918: In case you're wondering, yes, it is humiliating to be a citizen of a state which finds itself in this company.

China abstained from the vote?

Exclusive: Hegseth orders Cyber Command to stand down on Russia planning
Martin Matishak | February 28th, 2025

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth last week ordered U.S. Cyber Command to stand down from all planning against Russia, including offensive digital actions, according to three people familiar with the matter.

Hegseth gave the instruction to Cyber Command chief Gen. Timothy Haugh, who then informed the organization's outgoing director of operations, Marine Corps Maj. Gen. Ryan Heritage, of the new guidance, according to these people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the matter’s sensitivity.

The order does not apply to the National Security Agency, which Haugh also leads, or its signals intelligence work targeting Russia, the sources said...

https://therecord.media/hegseth-orders-cyber-command-stand-down-russia-planning

Don Moynihan ‪@donmoyn.bsky.social‬ | March 5, 2025 at 7:29 AM:

Trump not only seeking to disarm Ukraine but also blind them, maximizing bargaining leverage for Putin

‪Financial Times‬ ‪@financialtimes.com‬ · 9h
FT Exclusive: The US has cut off intelligence-sharing with Kyiv in a move that could seriously hamper the Ukrainian military’s ability to target Russian forces.
https://www.ft.com/content/c58fccea-00c4-4fad-bc0a-0185b7415579

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | March 6, 2025 at 8:19 AM:

Romanian authorities detained 6 individuals connected with Russia on treason charges, Romanian media report.

The Directorate for Investigating Organized Crime and Terrorism says the criminal group, established in 2023, had plans to undermine Romania's sovereignty and stage a coup d'etat.

The members of the group, including a 101-year-old retired general, also frequently had contacts with "agents of a foreign power located both in Romania and in Russia."

The two Russian diplomats that were expelled from Romania recently were helping this criminal group.

https://www.digi24.ro/ {in Italian?}

Ukraine’s Most Plausible Security Guarantee Will Not Come from the U.S. (International Crisis Group)

The Trump administration rules out security guarantees for Ukraine – as did the Biden administration. Europeans and Ukrainians need to give up hope that this stance might change. Efforts to align Kyiv, Washington and European capitals on other points would be better placed...

>72 margd: In Romanian, of course.

Is Putin truly pushing back or, by appearing to do so, is trying to help Trump in his acquisition of Greenland. Nah? Trump certainly appears to prefer unilateral / bilateral actions & agreements to multilateral...

Putin says US push for Greenland rooted in history, vows to uphold Russian interest in the Arctic
VLADIMIR ISACHENKOV | March 27, 2025

Russia's President Vladimir Putin said Thursday that President Donald Trump's push for control over Greenland wasn't surprising given longtime U.S. interest in the mineral-rich territory.

Speaking at a policy forum in the Artic port of Murmansk, Putin noted that the United States first considered plans to win control over Greenland in the 19th century, and then offered to buy it from Denmark after World War II.

... “We are certainly concerned about NATO members describing the Far North as the region of possible conflicts,” he said, noting that Russia's neighbors Finland and Sweden have joined the alliance. “Russia has never threatened anyone in the Arctic, but we will closely follow the developments and mount an appropriate response by increasing our military capability and modernizing military infrastructure.”

... “The stronger our positions will be, the more significant the results will be and the broader opportunities we will have to launch international projects in the Arctic involving the countries that are friendly to us, and, possibly, Western countries if they show interest in joint work. I’m sure the time will come to launch such projects.”

Kirill Dmitriev, head of the Russian Direct Investment Fund and Putin's envoy for international investment who took part in talks with U.S. officials, told reporters last month that Russia and the U.S. should develop joint energy ventures ...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putin-says-us-push-greenland-182852517.html

Jon Cooper ‪@joncooper-us.bsky.social‬ | April 3, 2025 at 9:02 AM
Democratic strategist. Formerly Long Island Campaign Chair for Barack Obama; Majority Leader of the Suffolk County Legislature.

Why did Trump hit Ukraine with a 10% tariff on all imports to the US, but not Russia? 🤨

>76 margd:

Isn't Russia already under every freakin sanction possible?

Belarus and North Korea and Cuba also escaped tariffs

ETA:
Russia not on Trump's tariff list
Vitaliy Shevchenko | 3 April 2025
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cdjl3k1we8vo

"Escaped" is a weird choice of terms. Presumably you have zero trade with these countries.

Turkey ready to host Russia-Ukraine peace talks, Erdogan tells Putin
Reuters | May 11, 2025

... Putin earlier on Sunday proposed direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul aimed at ending the war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Kyiv was willing to talk but Moscow must first agree to a ceasefire...

https://www.reuters.com/world/turkey-ready-host-russia-ukraine-negotiations-erdo...
----------------------------------------------------

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | May 11, 2025 at 6:40 AM

Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stated that Putin made it clear: first,negotiations about the root causes —then,talks about a ceasefire.

Putin,as expected, refuses to agree to a ceasefire.
He believes he still has the strength to advance&that he can carry out a summer campaign

Therefore,introducing new sanctions against Russia would be a logical step.Since Russia claims that active hostilities shouldn't interfere with the negotiation process, then sanctions shouldn't interfere with it either.
‪
Moreover, sanctions will help speed up mutual understanding — because Putin only understands the language of concrete actions.

>77 LolaWalser: Pretty leaky, sounds like, e.g., third countries, some kind of oil tanker evasion, etc.

UN body rules Russia responsible for downing of flight MH17 prompting calls for compensation (Guardian)

The UN aviation council has ruled that Russia was responsible for the downing of a Malaysian airliner over Ukraine that killed all 298 passengers and crew, prompting calls for “reparations” for the families of victims. Flight MH17 was travelling from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur when it was shot down by a Russian surface-to-air missile while flying over eastern Ukraine in 2014 as fighting raged between pro-Russian separatists and Ukrainian forces. Among the victims were 196 Dutch citizens and 38 Australian citizens or residents. The governments of Australia and the Netherlands said the Council of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) would in the coming weeks consider what form of reparation was in order...

Minna Ålander 🌻 ‪@alanderminna.bsky.social‬ | May 15, 2025 at 10:08 AM:
Associate Fellow @chathamhouse.org | @cepa.org Fellow | Senior Fellow Frivärld. Nordic-Baltic-Arctic security, NATO, European affairs.

This isn’t getting nearly enough attention.
Estonian navy is stopped at intercepting a shadow fleet vessel because a Russian Sukhoi Su-35 violated Estonian air space. This reduces even the implausible deniability to 0, which Russia has been relying on with the shadow fleet.
‪
Aki Heikkinen‬ ‪@akihheikkinen.bsky.social‬ | May 14, 2025 at 1:00 PM:
Multiple Finnish Air Force F/A-18 Hornet operational flights before noon over the harbour city of Kotka located in South-East of Finland.

(follows the yday evening aborted attempt by Estonian navy trying to inspect the shadow fleet tanker JAGUAR when a russian Flanker fighter jet intervened)

{Translate from Finnish to English at website}
Ilmavoimien hävittäjät hämmästyttivät Kotkassa
Puolustuvoimat kertoo, että kyse on operatiivisesta lentotoiminnasta.
https://yle.fi/a/74-20161714

Putin is invading more than Ukraine
The new battlefield is online, and the stakes are democratic sovereignty.
Mark Gitenstein*, Adrian Zuckerman* and Jim Rosapepe* | July 1, 2025

... Unfortunately, too many people who should know better are still cozying up to Putin, backing his pro-Russian candidates and undermining the security of the U.S. and other democratic allies. Elon Musk protégé Mario Nawfal was in Moscow in May, while tech billionaire Elon Musk’s father and controversial American right-wing commentators Jackson Hinkle and Alex Jones attended the Future 2050 forum in Moscow in June. Speaking at the forum were numerous Putin allies: right-wing Russian philosopher Alexander Dugin, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov and former president Dmitry Medvedev.

The Romanian battle was won, but Putin’s war on democracy continues. Who’s next on his list? This fall’s elections in Moldova, Estonia, Georgia, the Netherlands, the Czech Republic and other European nations are all ripe for interference. But before his propaganda can take hold, it’s imperative to crack down on his violations of election laws.

The fight for democracy now extends to cyberspace, where Putin’s invasion tactics must be thwarted, just as they’ve been on the battlefield. The new battlefield is online, and the stakes are democratic sovereignty.

The lesson from Romania is clear: The best defense against propaganda is truth — and the courage to speak it.

https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-invasion-ukraine-russia-romania-e...

* Mark Gitenstein (ret, 2009-2012), Adrian Zuckerman (ret, 2019-2021) and Jim Rosapepe (ret, 1998-2001) are all former U.S. ambassadors to Romania.
The new battlefield is online, and the stakes are democratic sovereignty.

Trump Pledges to Send More Weapons to Ukraine

“They have to be able to defend themselves,” the president said, appearing to signal a reversal after his administration paused some weapons transfers just last week.

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/07/us/politics/trump-ukraine-weapons.html

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 1:53 PM · Aug 13, 2025:

NEW: The PRC {People's Republic of China} and Russia may be providing the Iranian-backed Houthis with military equipment in exchange for safe passage through the Red Sea and as a way to undermine Western interests in the Middle East.

Other Key Takeaways:
Recent Ukrainian intelligence reports that Russia is supporting North Korea’s nuclear weapons delivery systems contrasts with Russia's continued unwillingness to help Iran's nuclear program directly, likely reflecting Russia's greater reliance on North Korea in its war in Ukraine. Russia's differential approach to requests for help with nuclear weapons programs likely also reflects the fact that North Korea already has nuclear weapons, whereas helping Iran obtain nuclear weapons capabilities would be a much more dramatic step.

The US-brokered Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement will likely relegate Russia and Iran to the sidelines as powers in the South Caucasus, which may lead Russia and Iran to deepen diplomatic coordination as part of a broader strategy to counter Western, Turkish, or Israeli influence.

Map of Zangezur Corridor through Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1955689141594734989/photo/1
----------------------------------------------

Adversary Entente Task Force Update, August 13, 2025
Aug 13, 2025 - ISW Press
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/adversary-entente-task-force-updat...

Report: Russian Sabotage Operations In Europe Have Quadrupled Since 2023
Mike Eckel | August 20, 2025

Summary
Russia has sharply increased sabotage operations in Europe, targeting critical infrastructure since 2023, according to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
European governments have struggled to coordinate responses to Russia's hybrid attacks, which include arson, cable damage, GPS disruptions, and hacking.
Russian agencies have shifted to using proxy operatives after the expulsion of intelligence officers, exploiting legal gaps and online recruitment...

... Moscow has made covert sabotage and surveillance operations a major priority, aimed at destabilizing European governments.

"While Russia has so far failed to achieve its primary aim, European capitals have struggled to respond to Russian sabotage operations and have found it challenging to agree a unified response, coordinate action, develop effective deterrence measures and impose sufficient costs on the Kremlin," the report by the London-based think tank said.

The scope of so-called hybrid attacks blamed on Russia includes arson attacks, incidents where ships have damaged undersea communications cables, disruption of GPS satellite navigation signals, and the hacking of computer infrastructure.

The bulk of the targets, the report released August 19 found, are in Ukraine or are connected to European efforts to support or supply Ukraine with military and other civilian hardware. The uptick of incidents coincided with Russia's all-out invasion of Ukraine, launched in February 2022, and spiked in 2023 and 2024, quadrupling over that period.

The report also tallied a slowdown in attacks in the first half of 2025, though it was unclear exactly what that could be attributed to...

https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-sabotage-europe-hybrid-attacks/33508179.html
------------------------------------------------

The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure (18p)
Charlie Edwards & Nate Seidenstein | August 2025
https://www.iiss.org/globalassets/media-library---content--migration/files/resea...
___________________________________

Gabbard cutting Director of National Intelligence staff by roughly 40%
Joe Walsh | August 20, 2025

... In a fact sheet on the changes {https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/ODNI-20-Fact-Sheet.pdf} — dubbed "ODNI 2.0" — the agency said several departments it argued were redundant would be refocused. Those include the National Counterproliferation and Biosecurity Center, which monitors for weapons of mass destruction; the Foreign Malign Influence Center, which describes its mission as "mitigating threats to democracy"; and the Cyber Threat Intelligence Integration Center, which handles cybersecurity.

The agency is also planning on shutting down the National Intelligence University, merging it with the Pentagon's National Defense University. And it will shutter the External Research Council and Strategic Futures Group, which ODNI accused of partisanship.

ODNI was created in response to the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, which investigators say was preceded by a lack of communication between U.S. intelligence agencies. Its duties include overseeing the dozens of agencies that make up the intelligence community and advising the president on intelligence matters. Since ODNI's founding around 20 years ago, some members of both parties have supported changes to the agency...

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/gabbard-cutting-director-of-national-intelligence-s...
---------------------------------------------------

Saradzhyan, Simon and Angelina Flood. “Tulsi Gabbard on Russia and Ukraine.” Russia Matters, July 10, 2025

... her views—particularly her opinions on Russia— attracted close scrutiny in the interval between her presidential bid announcement in 2019 and her confirmation as DNI in 2025. For instance, she was accused of failing to immediately denounce the launch of Russia’s full-blown invasion into Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022 and of repeating Russia’s arguments for this invasion. Weeks before the invasion, Gabbard claimed “Biden can very easily prevent a war with Russia by guaranteeing that Ukraine will not become a member of NATO.” That same year Gabbard also took heat for claiming that she was "deeply concerned" over claims about biological weapons in Ukraine, endorsing Russian claims that the U.S. and Ukraine were involved in dangerous biological research before the war. She has also repeatedly claimed that Ukraine is not a democracy.

https://www.belfercenter.org/research-analysis/tulsi-gabbard-russia-and-ukraine

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 6:52 AM · Aug 23, 2025
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder. Support volunteer translators

I've decided to translate for you a post from the Russian Telegram channel "Nezygar" about the current state of Russian refineries and fuel market:

"Tensions in Russia's fuel market are rising: in Primorye, there are kilometer-long queues at gas stations, and wholesale prices for gasoline and diesel have hit record highs. Officially, the reasons are no longer hidden - refineries are shutting down after Ukrainian strikes. During peak summer days, up to 14% of processing capacity was idle.

In 2025, the tactics of Ukrainian strikes have changed. Previously, they were one-time: a unit would be damaged, the plant would reduce output, but recover within a few weeks. Now, attacks are carried out in series and repeated on the same facilities - Ryazan, Novokuibyshevsk, Syzran, Volgograd, Afipsky refineries. This prevents the restoration of primary processing and hydrocracking and catalytic cracking units. For example, after a series of attacks, Ryazan Refinery (5% of Russia's capacity) has half its processing halted, while Novokuibyshevsk Refinery (3%) has its primary processing damaged. The largest refinery in southern Russia, Volgograd's Lukoil, as well as the Samara and Syzran refineries, have stopped receiving crude.

Ukraine is widely using drones with a range of 1,000-1,500 km (such as the AQ-400 produced by FirePoint), capable of reaching the Volga region. Simultaneously, drones and maritime drones are targeting export terminals - attacks on Ust-Luga and Novorossiysk have temporarily halted oil product shipments. 'Madyar' reported hitting the Druzhba pipeline, which supplies oil from Russia to its historical homeland.

...

The choice of refineries as targets is explained by their technological vulnerability. Modern Russian refineries were built using equipment from Shell, Axens, UOP, and Haldor Topsoe - hydrocracking, catalytic reforming, isomerization, and Euro-5 component production. After 2022, deliveries of equipment, software, and catalysts ceased. Catalysts are consumables, replaced every 1-3 years; without Western supplies, Russia relies on old stock or Chinese analogs with inferior performance. Hydroprocessing reactors and compressors are manufactured in only a few countries, with delivery times up to a year.

China can cover only part of the deficit: pumps, heat exchangers, and simple catalysts. However, for complex processes, its technology lags, and replacing Western components with Chinese ones requires restructuring the entire refinery unit. As a result, every Ukrainian strike on a hydrocracking or reforming unit leads to months of downtime.

The map of Russian refineries reveals a key strategic problem: the main processing capacities are concentrated in the European part of the country, while fuel consumption is rising in the Far East. Fuel logistics chains to eastern regions span thousands of kilometers, creating additional costs and risks. Kilometer-long queues in Primorye are a direct consequence of this imbalance between western production and eastern consumption. Large refineries - from Kirishi to Volgograd - are within reach of Ukrainian drones. The Flamingo missile, if its specifications are confirmed, can reach Russia's largest refinery in Omsk.

As the range increases, facilities previously considered out of reach are now threatened, creating a scale problem for air defense - protecting all refineries across the territory, from Kaliningrad to the Far East, is practically impossible.

Consequently, Russia's oil and gas industry, once a source of economic strength, has become a vulnerable spot."

Map, Russian refineries and strikes
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1959207002766221331/photo/1

Igor Sushko @igorsushko | 7:27 PM · Aug 21, 2025:
Born in Ukraine. American. Racecar Driver (Ret.)

Russia can just bomb the shit out of US-owned and NASDAQ-listed Flex company assets in Ukraine so long as Putin is "soft spoken" on his phone calls with @VP
Vance.
Tens of millions of dollars of assets owned by US shareholders lost.
This is an act of war against the United States

(2:00) https://x.com/igorsushko/status/1958672432195412097

Trump hits India with punishing 50% tariff, among the highest the US charges
Elisabeth Buchwald | 8/27/2025

President Donald Trump made good on his threat to double tariffs on imports from India to 50%, a move that could endanger relations with one of America’s most important trading partners and send consumer prices higher.

... The latest round of tariffs on India seeks to punish the country for importing Russian oil and helping Russia finance its war with Ukraine, Trump has previously said.

... India has accused the Trump administration of unfairly penalizing the country, pointing out that other countries that import oil from Russia aren’t facing such levies. China, for instance, is the top buyer of Russian oil, but its products face a minimum 30% tariff. Trump has warned, though, that other countries that purchase oil from Russia could face higher tariffs soon.

... The top goods the US received from India last year included pharmaceuticals, communications equipment, such as smartphones, and apparel. Smartphones, however, are exempt from so-called “reciprocal” tariffs, which includes the 50% tax on Indian goods.

As is the case with almost all country-specific duties Trump has enacted, sectoral tariffs — such as the 50% across-the-board tariff on steel and aluminum, as well as others he’s threatened — won’t be stacked. This means that steel and aluminum products from India there will face a 50% tariff rather than a combined 100% tariff.

Meanwhile, the top American exports to India were various oils and gases, chemicals and aerospace products and parts. These industries could be among the most vulnerable if India decides to slap retaliatory tariffs on American goods...

https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/27/economy/trump-india-tariff

Trump, Gabbard fired top CIA Russia expert days after Alaska summit
Warren P. Strobel, Ellen Nakashima, Greg Miller and Karen DeYoung | 27 Aug 2025

The CIA officer was due to take up a prestigious assignment in Europe approved by CIA Director John Ratcliffe. Instead, her security clearance was summarily revoked.

... The ax has fallen on spy agency personnel with decades of experience dealing with Russia and Ukraine, potentially depriving the Trump administration of expertise as it conducts high-stakes diplomacy with Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to try to end the conflict that began with Russia’s February 2022 invasion, former U.S. officials said.

As they see colleagues fired, reassigned or stripped of their clearances, those who remain will be less willing to report intelligence that contains unpalatable truths or contradicts Trump’s views, the officials said, speaking on the condition of anonymity out of concern that they could also be targeted.

Former U.S. officials who worked closely with the ousted CIA officer described her as highly respected and apolitical, with no presence on social media and no record of voicing any criticism of Trump or his policies. The officer, one said, is “the antithesis of a political operator.”

... The Trump administration has specifically targeted former and current officials associated with a 2017 assessment that Russia intervened in the 2016 U.S. presidential election in part to help Trump over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. The ousted CIA officer held a senior role at the time involving intelligence on Russia and Eurasia, but was not one of the document’s main drafters. Its findings have been upheld by multiple independent reviews, including an exhaustive bipartisan study by the Senate Intelligence Committee.

Gabbard has portrayed the assessment as part of a treasonous conspiracy by outgoing Obama administration officials to undermine Trump in his first term. She has threatened legal action against former president Barack Obama and top national security aides, and she stripped security clearances from multiple former officials involved in analyzing intelligence on Russia.

Decades of experience on Russia and Ukraine have been lost for other reasons...

... Some of the ousted CIA analyst’s former colleagues fault {CIA Director John} Ratcliffe for not protecting one of his own. “He’s overseeing an institution that’s supposed to be independent, to a large extent, of political influence, particularly the analytical institution,” one former official said. “To allow an outsider who is not supposed to have influence over the process to remove your top person on Russia when you’ve just given her an overseas assignment is ridiculous.”

{Gift} https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/08/27/cia-officer-russia-t...

Russia's Rosneft net income plummets 68%, Reuters reports
Yuliia Taradiuk | August 31, 2025

... Russia's Rosneft net income has fallen more than 68% to 245 billion roubles ($3 billion) in the first half of the year due to weak oil prices

OPEC has been cutting production for several years to support global oil prices... production cuts by the group led to a rise in output by the U.S., which has become the world's leading oil producer

After calls from U.S. President Donald Trump earlier this year, the cartel upped production in an effort to regain some of its former market share.

Russia revised its August crude oil export plans from ports in the west of the country, increasing them by 200,000 barrels per day compared to the initial schedule.

This came amid ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian oil infrastructure. According to Reuters calculations, Ukraine struck 10 refineries throughout August, shutting down facilities representing 17% of national processing capacity, or 1.1 million barrels per day.

The paralyzed refineries freed up additional crude oil volumes for export...

https://kyivindependent.com/russias-rosneft-net-income-drops-68-reuters-reports/
----------------------------------------------------

News Feed | Monday, September 1 2:51 am
Europe drafting 'precise plans' for troop deployments to Ukraine with US backing...

"Security guarantees are paramount and absolutely crucial. We have a clear road map and we had an agreement in the White House . . . and this work is going forward very well," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen told the Financial Times.

https://kyivindependent.com/russias-rosneft-net-income-drops-68-reuters-reports/

Russia Suspected of Interfering With GPS on Plane Carrying European Commission President
Callum Sutherland | Sep 1, 2025

... “We have received information from Bulgarian authorities that they suspect this blatant interference was carried out by Russia. We are well aware that threats and intimidation are a regular component of Russia’s hostile actions,” said European Commission Deputy Chief Spokesperson Arianna Podestà in an emailed statement, reiterating that the plane landed safely on Sunday despite the GPS jamming...

Per Podestà, the event will only serve to “further reinforce” the European Commission’s “unshakable commitment to ramp up its defence capabilities and support for Ukraine.”

A source familiar with the matter told TIME the pilots used paper maps to successfully land the plane...

https://time.com/7313738/russia-plane-gps-interference-suspected-president-europ...

"‘I told my family, I’ll probably die’: US immigration sends Russian asylum seekers back to Moscow", reposted in the ICE, the new Gestapo thread where I think it sits better.

Bloomberg News ‪@bloomberg.com‬ | September 8, 2025 at 6:31 AM {bsky.app}

The Arctic is becoming increasingly contested thanks to Trump's Greenland ambitions, putting Norway on high alert for Russian threats.

Read more: bloom.bg/3JSmcf5
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2025-arctic-russia-high-north-threat

Russia has network of 200 camps for ‘brainwashing’ Ukrainian children – report
Liz Cookman | 16 Sep 2025

"Investigation uncovers documents and satellite imagery that confirm children being taken to sites for patriotic indoctrination, weapons training and combat drills ..."

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2025/sep/16/russia-has-network-of...
-----------------------------------------------

How Russia is grooming Ukraine’s children to fight for it: ‘I understood it wasn’t just play’
Liz Cookman | 10 Sep 2025
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/sep/10/how-russia-is-grooming-ukraines-ch...
-----------------------------------------------

Ukraine's Stolen Children: Inside Russia's Network of Re-Education and Militarization
Yale School of Public Health | September 16, 2025
https://medicine.yale.edu/lab/khoshnood/news-article/ukraines-stolen-children-in...

Estonia seeks NATO consultations after Russia jets incident
Midhat Fatimah | 19 Sept 2025

"Estonia requested a consultation of NATO powers after the Baltic nation said three Russian fighter jets violated its airspace in a "brazen" 12-minute incursion. Estonia's president said air defense "must be a priority."..."

https://www.dw.com/en/estonia-seeks-nato-consultations-after-russia-jets-inciden...
----------------------------------------------

The latest on Russian drones shot down in Polish airspace Wednesday
Rob Schmitz, Steve Inskeep | September 11, 2025
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/11/nx-s1-5536579/the-latest-on-russian-drones-shot-d...
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Russian jets violated safety zone of drilling platform in Baltic sea, Poland says
Reuters | September 19, 2025
https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/russian-jets-violated-safety-...
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New missile parts found in Poland, drone debris in Latvia after Russian drone incursion
Kateryna Denisova | September 19, 2025
https://kyivindependent.com/fragment-of-russian-gerber-drone-found-on-a-latvian-...

>97 margd: contd.

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 12:01 AM · Sep 22, 2025: {X.com}
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security. DC.

Russia continues to test the limits of NATO’s air defenses over the Baltic Sea as Russia increases the frequency of its violations of NATO states’ airspace. ISW continues to assess that Russia is pursuing an aggressive campaign to test NATO air defenses and political will as part of a broader effort to collect actionable intelligence that Russia may then apply to a potential future conflict against NATO.

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1969975189875408916

Diesel generators on our electric ferry needed replacement sooner than expected, not being designed for longterm use...

Ukraine warns of critical situation at Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant
Reuters | September 30, 2025

"Summary

External power line to Russian-held plant down for seven days
UN nuclear watchdog, IAEA, says no immediate danger
IAEA says emergency diesel generators remain in operation
Ukraine, Russia accuse each other of endangering nuclear safety

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Tuesday the situation at the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power station had become critical, with Russian shelling preventing restoration of a power line needed to cool the reactors and prevent a meltdown.

The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N. nuclear watchdog, said it was working with both sides to restore the external power line. Rafael Grossi said there was no immediate danger as long as diesel generators remained in operation, providing emergency power for the facility..."

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ukraine-warns-critical-situation-zaporiz...

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | October 10, 2025 at 2:24 AM:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023)

"Russian massive attack on #Ukraine lasted all night.
Yet another morning when all of us call and text each other, asking "Are you ok?"

Ukrainian energy system was the main target of Russia's attack. Various power plants attacked in several regions.
A difficult winter is ahead.

{Map, Ukraine, 10 Oct 2025, War Monitor} https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m2szwie55k2z "

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 10:00 AM · Oct 19, 2025:
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

Ukraine’s October 2025 strikes against an oil terminal in occupied Feodosia, Crimea, appear to have significantly degraded the terminal, and it is unclear when or if Russia will be able to repair it...

https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1979910411567927529

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | October 21, 2025 at 8:58 AM:

The Economist has published interesting data:every 117th Russian man has died in Russia's war against Ukraine

The media calculated the scale of Russia’s losses in the war.According to a study based on more than 200 sources,over 3.5yrs of the invasion,Russia has lost between 0.5%&1.2% of men under 60
https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3m3pezz7gcs2u
_______________________________________

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 11:10 PM · Oct 20, 2025
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

NEW: US President Donald Trump’s October 17 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly ended with Trump supporting a ceasefire on the current frontlines and not Russian President Vladimir Putin’s demands that Ukraine cede territory in Donetsk Oblast to Russia. ⬇️(1/2)

Kremlin voices clarified Russia’s position on negotiations following Western reporting about the October 17 Trump-Zelensky meeting in order to reiterate that Russia remains committed to addressing the alleged “root causes” of the war and is unwilling to agree to a ceasefire.

The Kremlin is priming the Russian people for a full victory in Ukraine whatever the cost — a domestic effort that is at odds with Putin’s reported willingness to make territorial concessions.

The Kremlin is leaning into its cognitive warfare effort to portray Russian forces as relentlessly advancing and a Russian victory as inevitable. This effort aims to obscure the reality that Russian forces are only making minimal gains at disproportionately high manpower costs and that Russia is unlikely to obtain its strategic objectives by force in the short- or medium-term.

Russian officials are also attempting to falsely portray ongoing limited Russian operations in the Kherson direction as the start of a new major Russian offensive in the province.

The Kremlin is attempting to use all available informational avenues to convince the United States, Europe, and Ukraine to acquiesce to the Kremlin’s demands by convincing them that a Russian victory in Ukraine is certain when it is anything but.

Kremlin officials are attempting to present Ukraine as the obstacle to peace to obfuscate how Putin himself has been impeding the process by insisting that Ukraine cede more territory than Russian forces currently occupy.

Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Siversk direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Velykyi Burluk direction.

{Maps} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/1980471654909374606

2/ Read more ⬇️
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2025: http://isw.pub/UkrWar102025

Wildfires have consumed vast chunks of Ukraine. Is Russia deliberately fuelling the flames?
Linda Hourani and Patrick Greenfield | 23 oCT 2025

"In 2024, nearly a million hectares of Ukraine’s land burned. Heat, mines and shelling contributed, but footage of drones targeting firefighters has raised the question of war crimes

... Videos posted by Russian troops on social media show clearly marked fire trucks and personnel being attacked. Often these attacks follow a “double-tap” pattern, with an initial explosion causing a fire, and the same site attacked a second time after rescue and fire crews arrive. One Russian drone-operating brigade in Kherson regularly posts first-person footage videos from drone attacks to their Telegram channel. In one series of clips, the drone pilots target a petrol station, causing a fire. When the fire truck arrives to fight it, a second “suicide” drone flies headlong into the truck, exploding on impact. The Guardian and the Kyiv Independent cross-referenced those videos with photos provided by Ukraine’s state emergency service, of the fire truck’s cab damaged by the explosion.

While damage and fires are a common consequence of war, deliberately targeting rescue workers, igniting fires or encouraging them to burn in a way that causes deliberate, long-term destruction of the environment would be considered a war crime under international law. The Russian government did not respond to a request for comment.

Across Ukraine, prosecutors are working to determine whether attacks are intentionally targeting natural resources. Trees have provided both sides with cover from drones, making forests a target for deliberate fires, say experts..."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/oct/23/drones-ukraine-wildfires-russia-he...

Terrified Ukrainian toddlers cling to firefighters after Russia blasts kindergarten with killer drones
Caitlin Doornbos | Oct. 22, 2025
https://nypost.com/2025/10/22/world-news/terrified-ukrainian-toddlers-cling-to-f...

Trump brushes off concerns about Witkoff’s interactions with Russians as leaked transcript roils Washington
Betsy Klein | 26 Nov 2025

"... a new phone call transcript provided rare insight into how the president’s top negotiator advised his Russian counterpart.

In the October 14 audio recording reviewed and transcribed by Bloomberg, {Steve} Witkoff counsels top Russian foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov on how Russian President Vladimir Putin should approach a call with Trump. The transcript offers key new insight about the behind-the-scenes talks that produced a 28-point peace plan that has been the subject of intense discussions between the Trump administration, Russia and Ukraine in recent days.

... Witkoff advised Ushakov to encourage his boss to congratulate Trump on a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas when the two leaders spoke. That was indeed communicated two days later.

... Witkoff, notably, encouraged Ushakov in the call to have the leaders speak before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky held talks with Trump at the White House.

... Witkoff also floated the idea of putting together a “20-point peace proposal” during his call with Ushakov similar to his efforts in Gaza. That eventually led to a 28-point peace proposal that included many concessions to Russia, including Kyiv ceding territory, giving up ambitions to join NATO and limiting the size of its army...."

https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/26/politics/trump-witkoff-russian-call

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 10:19 AM · Dec 5, 2025: {X.com}
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder.

"Le Figaro reported that five drones were detected flying over the Île Longue submarine base on Thursday evening, which houses ballistic missile submarines - a key part of France's nuclear deterrent.

French navy troops in charge of protecting the base opened fire, but there were no reports on whether any of them were shot down.

Drones had already been spotted in the area last month - on the night of November 17-18, a drone was reported flying over the Crozon Peninsula, though not over military facilities.

{Map} https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/1996962747548828133/photo/1 "

Proliferation and Control of Arms and Ammunition in Wartime Ukraine (Small Arms Survey)

Since the Russian Federation’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, vast quantities of small arms, light weapons, and ammunition have been deployed to the front lines, some of which have been lost or abandoned by combatants and subsequently found and stockpiled by civilians over the course of the war. These weapons include military-grade firearms, grenades, and recent-generation portable missiles and rockets—weapons that pose immediate safety threats to the Ukrainian population, and risk affecting national and regional security should they be diverted or trafficked to criminal organizations or violent extremists.

Ukrainian translation: Цей звіт також доступний українською мовою

"As former Representative Adam Kinzinger (R-IL) posted on social media: “With all this talk of how to end Russia’s war against Ukraine, and a cease fire, keep this in mind: If Ukraine ceases firing, Ukraine will cease to exist. If Russia ceases firing, the war will cease to exist.” "

- Heather Cox Richardson · December 29, 2025 (Monday)
Heather Cox Richardson is a political historian who uses facts and history to put the news in context

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 8:48 AM · Dec 30, 2025

"Latvia completed the construction of barriers along its border with Russia, the state-owned company Valsts nekustamie īpašumi, which is responsible for the project, reported.

"In total, around 280 kilometers of fencing have been built along the Latvian-Russian border, forming a continuous barrier in areas where this was technically feasible," the state company said.

Interior Minister Rihards Kozlovskis emphasized that the border is also being equipped in parallel with modern technological systems, with the authorities aiming to create the most advanced border security system on the eastern frontier of the European Union.

According to a VNĪ press release, work on developing border infrastructure is ongoing: patrol roads are being built, and in the spring of 2026 construction is set to begin on pontoon walkways in the most swampy sections, including the area around Lake Pitelis.

In 2024, a fence measuring approximately 145 kilometers was also constructed along Latvia’s border with Belarus."

(1:02) https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2005999466470326644

IISS News @IISS_org | 7:01 AM · Dec 24, 2025:
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is a world-leading authority on global security, political risk and military conflict.

"The IISS has produced the most comprehensive open-source database currently available on Russian sabotage operations across Europe and its periphery. It captures the full spectrum of activity with physical effects: from sabotage on undersea cables to GPS blocking across multiple domains and geographies.

Find out more from : https://go.iiss.org/3HlncHT "

(Photo, cover of research report) https://x.com/IISS_org/status/2003798080831824087/photo/1
--------------------------------------------------

The Scale of Russian Sabotage Operations Against Europe’s Critical Infrastructure (18 p)
Charlie Edwards and Nate Seidenstein | 19th August 2025

"This IISS paper assesses Russia’s unconventional war on Europe, focusing on sabotage of critical infrastructure, from military sites and energy grids to communications and undersea cables, testing the resilience of European governments and societies and challenging NATO/EU deterrence."

https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2025/08/the-scale-of-russian--sabotage-opera...

Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en | 4:13 AM · Jan 31, 2026:
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023). Institute of the Future founder.

"My thoughts on Russia's hybrid warfare in the North and the Baltic and Russia's future strategy for this region.

Russia is playing a long game in the North and the Baltic, where the main thing is to gradually increase pressure and make it habitual, while making Europe's response expensive, slow, and inconvenient. Moscow's plan is simple: more shipbuilding, more infrastructure resilience, more 'gray' incidents involving cables and the seabed.

Russia is already number one in the North and continues to build a system that will allow it to be 'at home' where others are physically limited by ice. The best indicator is the Project 22220 nuclear-powered icebreakers. As of now, four are in service (Arktika, Sibir, Ural, Yakutiya), and three more are in various stages of construction with planned commissioning in 2026, 2028, and 2030.

Russia is building not only icebreakers, but also a maintenance vessel for them. A special "multifunctional nuclear service vessel" (length 158.8 m, displacement 22,661 tons) is planned to be completed by 2029, with 50/50 financing (the state + Rosatom program). This is a sign of long-term planning.

In the Baltic, Russia's logic is different: hybrid warfare. There, one doesn't have to be the biggest - one has to be the most irritating. Russia's goal is to turn the Baltic Sea into a space where incidents happen so often that everyone stops paying attention to them.

It is no coincidence that NATO launched Baltic Sentry (with frigates, maritime patrol aircraft, and naval drones). In doing so, the Alliance effectively acknowledged that the main problem is not a single episode, but a regime. And for such a regime to work, what is needed is not one "retaliatory operation," but regular surveillance and a readiness to respond as routinely as police patrols respond to a call.

The worst-case scenario in these theaters does not look like a heroic naval battle. It looks like a dull but exhausting reality: disrupted cables, strange 'accidents,' constant patrols, chronic tension, economic nerves, and political disputes.

In the short window of 2026-2028, Russia in the Baltic may play 'gray zone' as much as possible: more incidents around the seabed, more reaction tests, more situations where each individual episode seems too small for a harsh response - but there are so many of them that the strategic effect is significant. This is the "you're not going to declare a state of emergency over this, are you?" scenario repeated twenty times.

In the medium window of 2028-2030+, the risk is that Russia's Arctic 'access machine' will become more resilient. If the 22220 schedules are maintained (planned commissioning in 2026/2028/2030) and the service vessel really starts operating by 2029, Russia will have more opportunities to maintain its presence in the North as the norm rather than the exception. And then it will become easier to combine two modes: "we are here permanently," in the North, and "and here you always have something going on" in the Baltic.

The key trick of this strategy is that Russia does not need to "defeat NATO at sea." It is enough for it to make pressure cheap and repeatable, and the response - legally complex and politically sensitive. In such a game, the winner is not the stronger one, but the one who forces the other to spend more nerves on every little thing.

European and NATO plans are generally relevant. The EU is developing an approach to cable security as a routine cycle: prevention → detection → response and repair → deterrence. And on the northern flank, 'hard' undersea capabilities are growing: for example, Norway is expanding its purchase of Type-212CD to six submarines, with the first delivery expected in 2029, and is talking about large investment packages. This indicates a systematic and long-term plan.

The US, for its part, is closing the 'ice' gap with Arctic Security Cutters: plans call for up to six ships in the first wave (two in Finland and four in the US), with the first deliveries expected in 2028-2029. But there is an important nuance here: until then, there will be a 'window' in the Arctic where Russia's infrastructure advantage is stronger simply because it is already serial.

The main risk for Europe is not that there are no plans. The risk is that the plans may remain on paper. Russia will act while discussions continue about who is to blame and whether there is sufficient evidence.

‼️ Therefore, the simple rule for success is as follows: Europe needs a response that is not heroic, but routine.

Not "anxiety," "confusion," and an "emergency meeting," but a "standard procedure." Not "lengthy political coordinations," but clear algorithms for punishing the violator: identify - document - name - apply consequences. Because the best way to ruin someone's 'gray zone' game is not to play it.

https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2017526613311664438

Ukraine is using powerful quadcopters to destroy nearly a third of all the Russian air threats it hits, commander says
Matthew Loh | Feb 24, 2026, 12:03 AM ET

"- 30% of Russian air threats downed over Ukraine were hit by interceptor drones, a top commander said.
- It's a further sign of how the novel, inexpensive technology is growing in the country.
- Ukraine said in December that it was producing nearly 1,000 of these drones per day.

... interceptor drones ... are typically small, inexpensive quadcopters optimized to fly fast enough to catch Russian one-way attack drones.

These air defense drones were an emerging novelty in the earlier years of the war, but Ukraine began accelerating their development in late 2024 as a cost-effective answer to Moscow ramping up its regular drone attacks on Ukrainian cities.

... Interceptor drones are built to destroy these aerial threats by ramming into them or deploying an explosive warhead. Much of a successful interception relies on the skill of the pilot and crew, who must spot the Shahed quickly, approach its trajectory, track its position, and then fly their drone into the Russian device.

Not all interceptors are quadcopters, but many are designed with four propellers and a dome-like frame to reach extreme speeds, since the typical Shahed can reach up to 115 mph, while more advanced versions are estimated to reach 230 mph. ... "

https://www.businessinsider.com/interceptor-drones-destroy-third-russian-air-thr...

The Zero Line: Inside Russia’s War review – harrowing testimony from a military that turns on its own (Guardian)

Jailed, beaten, executed … this BBC documentary gives voice to Russian dissidents and conscripts trapped in a system of violence, fear and punishment. The result is devastating...

Heather Cox Richardson {history prof, Boston College} | February 24, 2026 (Tuesday)
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson

"Four years ago today, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin launched a “special military operation” involving dozens of missile strikes on Ukrainian cities before dawn. In 1994, in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, Russia, along with the United States and the United Kingdom, agreed not to use military force or economic coercion against Ukraine, in exchange for Ukraine’s giving up the Soviet stockpile of nuclear weapons left in Ukraine after the Soviet Union crumbled in 1991. At the time, Ukraine had the third-largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world. Russia violated that agreement when it invaded in 2014 after Ukrainians threw out Russia-backed oligarch Viktor Yanukovych.

Putin had been eyeing Ukraine’s industrialized region since at least summer 2016, when Russian operatives told then-candidate Donald J. Trump that they would help Trump win the White House if he would look the other way when Russia installed Yanukovych to govern a new “autonomous” republic there. Two days before he invaded in 2022, Putin recognized “new republics” in Ukraine and then, in his announcement of his invasion, claimed he had to protect the people there from “persecution and genocide by the Kyiv regime.” He called for “demilitarization” of Ukraine, demanding that soldiers lay down their weapons and saying that any bloodshed would be on their hands.

Putin called for the murder of Ukrainian leaders in the executive branch and parliament and intended to seize or kill those involved in the 2014 Maidan Revolution, which sought to turn the country away from Russia and toward a democratic government within Europe, and which itself prompted a Russian invasion. Putin planned for his troops to seize Ukraine’s electric, heating, and financial systems so the people would have to do as he wished. The operation was intended to be lightning fast.

But rather than collapsing, Ukrainians held firm. The day after Russia invaded, Zelensky and his cabinet recorded a video in Kyiv. “We are all here,” he said. “Our soldiers are here. The citizens are here, and we are here. We will defend our independence…. Glory to Ukraine!” When the United States offered the next day to transport Zelensky outside the country, where he could lead a government in exile, he responded:
“The fight is here; I need ammunition, not a ride.”

During his first term, Trump had weakened the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) that stood against Russian aggression, but once President Joe Biden took office, he and Secretary of State Antony Blinken worked quietly to strengthen NATO and ties with other allies and partners. They rallied the G7 (the world’s seven wealthiest liberal democracies), the European Union, and others to supply Ukraine with weapons and humanitarian assistance. Under Biden, the U.S. led the international response, providing about $50 billion in military aid and about $53 billion in humanitarian aid, as well as coordinating aid from allies and partners.

The U.S. and allies and partners also united behind extraordinary economic sanctions, including, on February 26, 2022, the exclusion of Russian banks from SWIFT, the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication. SWIFT is a Belgian-based network that enables banks to transfer payments across international borders, and its ban on Russian banks isolated Russia’s economy.

Over the next three years, Ukraine’s stand against Russia boosted the morale of those defending their own countries against invaders and, in turn, captured the imagination of people around the world hoping to stem the rise of authoritarianism. Ukraine’s society transformed to bring the power of civilians as well as soldiers behind the war effort. The Ukraine army grew to be the largest in Europe, with a million people, even as Russian attacks killed civilians as well as soldiers and destroyed hospitals, infrastructure, and the energy sector. Ukraine became the global leader in drone technology, while Russia’s economy faltered and its front lines dug in.

Last year, foreign affairs journalist Anne Applebaum wrote: “The only way Putin wins now is by persuading Ukraine’s allies to be sick of the war…by persuading Trump to cut off Ukraine…and by convincing Europeans that they can’t win either.”

Indeed, while Americans supported Ukraine, Trump never wavered from his support for Russia. Although a bipartisan majority in Congress would have passed more funding for Ukraine, after Republicans took control of the House of Representatives, Trump loyalist House speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) refused to bring Ukraine funding to the floor for a vote.

Then, in December 2023, MAGA Republican lawmakers said they would not pass a new measure to fund Ukraine’s assistance without measures strengthening the border between the U.S. and Mexico. Senators wrote the measure they demanded, only to have Trump urge his congressional supporters to kill it in order to keep the issue of immigration alive for the 2024 election.

By the time Congress finally passed a measure appropriating $60 billion in aid for Ukraine in April 2024, the lack of funding for six months had helped shift the war in Russia’s favor.

Once Trump was back in the White House, the U.S. position changed dramatically. As a team from the Wall Street Journal later explained, even before Trump took the oath of office, Putin was reaching out to Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real-estate developer with no experience in diplomacy, to negotiate over Ukraine. In February, Witkoff went to Moscow to meet with Putin without a translator and without being briefed by the CIA.

On February 12, 2025, the day after Witkoff returned, Trump talked to Putin for nearly an hour and a half and came out from the “highly productive” call parroting Putin’s justification for invading Ukraine. Two days later, Vice President J.D. Vance used the Munich Security Conference to attack Europe and its democratic values while declining to acknowledge the threat of Russian aggression, indicating that the U.S. would no longer stand with Ukraine. Days later, a readout of a call between Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov suggested that Russia was in dire need of relief from economic sanctions.

Then, on February 28, 2025, Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance ambushed Ukraine president Zelensky in an Oval Office meeting that seemed designed to give the White House an excuse for siding with Russia. The American leaders spouted Russian propaganda, trying to bully Zelensky into accepting a ceasefire on Russia’s terms and signing over rights to Ukraine’s rare-earth minerals, while accusing him of being “ungrateful” for U.S. support. Zelensky didn’t take the bait, and Trump ended up furiously defending Putin before walking out. Shortly after, Zelensky and his team were asked to leave the White House.

In August, Trump met Putin, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes, on U.S. soil, greeting him in Alaska on a literal red carpet and clapping as Putin walked to greet him, before taking him alone into the presidential limousine to drive to the meeting site. Trump has placed a photograph from that meeting on display in the White House.

Putin’s attacks on civilian targets in Ukraine have increased dramatically since Trump took office, even as Witkoff has been negotiating officially for an end to the war and quietly over deals on oil, gas, and perhaps minerals. In April the U.S. appeared to back a plan that essentially gave Russia all it wanted, including the Ukrainian land it had invaded. Since then, the administration’s ongoing “negotiations” with Russia resulted in demands of major concessions from Ukraine but none from Russia. Those talks are ongoing, now with Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner involved, although as recently as last week, Russia had not wavered from its demands for Ukraine’s territory.

Today, landmark buildings across the world that were lit up in blue and yellow to show support for Ukraine included the Council of the European Union and European Commission buildings in Brussels, Belgium; Canada’s Parliament and the Office of the Prime Minister in Ottawa; the Freedom Monument in Riga, Latvia; The Colosseum in Rome, Italy; the Eiffel Tower in Paris, France; the Brandenburg Gate in Berlin, Germany; the Tower of Christiansborg Palace in Copenhagen, Denmark; Sebitseom in Seoul, South Korea; and the Empire State Building in New York City, New York. European leaders vowed to “stand firm” with Ukraine, and the United Nations General Assembly voiced support for Ukraine, passing a resolution saying it was committed to “"the sovereignty, independence, unity and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognized borders." The U.S. abstained.

The sudden switch of the U.S. away from its traditional allies in favor of Russia has dramatically reordered the globe. With the U.S. stepping back, Russia has provoked European countries by sabotaging their infrastructure and sending drones over their airspace. Applebaum recently told Il Foglio that Trump’s stance has shocked Europeans into a determination to shed its former reliance on the U.S. and to be self-sufficient in terms of defense, to develop its own technology companies, to build a stronger industrial sector, and to integrate financial markets more fully. As U.S. funding for Ukraine has all but disappeared, Europe is stepping up, although as Nick Paton Walsh of CNN noted today, not as fast as it needs to in order to stop Russia’s aggression.

At the end of its fourth year of war, Russia is weakened enough that the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assesses today that “Putin’s mismanagement of the war and Ukraine’s resistance now confront Putin with challenging, uncomfortable, and unpopular decisions about the war’s force generation requirements and the Russian economy.” The need for more money and more men to fight will be unpopular in the midst of an unpopular war in which Russia has recently been losing territory, and the ISW assesses that Kremlin officials are already trying to mitigate domestic backlash.

In her interview with Applebaum in Il Foglio, Paola Peduzzi noted that “{t}he Ukrainians have suffered the most from America's distortion, because we measure the transatlantic divorce in money and they in black bags: since Donald Trump returned to the White House, Ukrainian civilian deaths have increased by 31 percent compared to 2024, and by 70 percent compared to 2023.”

Applebaum told Peduzzi that Russia is not winning the war, but said the war “won't end until the Russians agree to stop fighting, and they haven't yet, nor have they ever said they want to. So the war can't end: the Ukrainians are defending their land and can't stop, even if they wanted to."

“Ukrainians have changed the way they wage war; they no longer ask when it will end, but only how,” Peduzzi wrote. She concluded: “Ukrainians are saving us all, and unlike us, they don't even ask us to say thank you.”"

US opposes IAEA board resolution condemning attacks on Ukraine's power grid
Francois Murphy | March 6, 2026
{PAYWALL} https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/us-opposes-iaea-board-resolution-condemning...
____________________________________________

US Joins Russia and China {and Niger} in Voting Against IAEA Resolution on Attacks Targeting Ukraine’s Power Grid
Roman Kohanets | Mar 05, 2026

"... The United States voted against an International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board resolution on attacks on Ukraine’s power grid...

The vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-nation Board of Governors in Vienna put the US alongside Russia, China, and Niger. This marked the first time the United States voted against such a resolution.

The resolution text stated it “reemphasizes that attacks targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure for the off-site power supply of nuclear power plants, including at the ZNPP (Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant), represent a direct threat to nuclear safety and security.”

In a statement delivered before the vote, the US wrote: “While we continue supporting the IAEA’s work in-country, we do not support the Board’s current consideration of an unnecessary resolution that does not help achieve peace between Ukraine and Russia.”

Adopted by the IAEA member Board of Governors, the measure was the seventh resolution on Ukraine since Russia launched its full-scale invasion four years ago ..."

https://united24media.com/latest-news/us-joins-russia-and-china-in-voting-agains...

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 1:30 AM · Mar 13, 2026:

MORE: The Kremlin may be accelerating its internet censorship campaign now to preempt domestic backlash and insulate the regime ahead of future unpopular decisions, such as rolling reserve call-ups – particularly ahead of the September 2026 Duma elections.

The Kremlin’s censorship campaign continues to draw backlash in the Russian information space.

The intensification of this censorship campaign continues to indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin may not be as confident in his regime’s stability, and the Kremlin will likely continue building out Russian physical and social controls on the Russian internet, potentially ahead of a future conflict with NATO.

{Text} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2032328300132250097/photo/1

SPRAVDI — Stratcom Centre @StratcomCentre | 4:23 PM · Mar 15, 2026
We spread the truth, counter fakes and hostile propaganda, and amplify the voice of society. Center for Strategic Communications - SPRAVDI.

The speed at which Russia becomes North Korea accelerates.
Students in Moscow will not be awarded diplomas without installing the government's new "MAX" spyware app.
This was announced to the students at Moscow City Pedagogical University (MPGU).

{Text, directive (Russian)}
https://x.com/StratcomCentre/status/2033277836610445572/photo/1
{Text, directive (English translation} https://x.com/StratcomCentre/status/2033277836610445572/photo/2

For those who don't know, all other messenger apps are being shut down in Russia. Russians can only use MAX and they are trying to avoid it. But the government is doing their best to make that impossible. Every new phone in Russia comes with MAX pre-installed.

NEXTA @nexta_tv | 11:54 AM · Mar 17, 2026:
The largest Eastern European media. To let the world know.

Russia to colonize occupied territories: thousands of Russians will be relocated there

Russia plans to resettle nearly 114,000 of its citizens to the occupied territories of Ukraine by 2045.

Pro-Kremlin outlets report this, citing internal plans.

The plan concerns the Donetsk, Luhansk, and parts of the Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions.

Authorities intend to build infrastructure and bring in workers from within Russia — more than 200,000 people in total.

At the same time, the Kremlin is promoting “tourism” and the development of resorts.

Earlier reports also mentioned plans to deport local residents deeper into Russia.

In this way, the Kremlin aims to change the region’s demographics by replacing the Ukrainian population with Russians.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky @khodorkovsky_en | 4:20 PM · Mar 24, 2026:
A leader of the Russian opposition, reformer. Ex-political prisoner (2003–2013).
https://x.com/khodorkovsky_en/status/2036538548309074008

"We already knew the Kremlin was sending men to die in Ukraine.
But a new @dossier_center investigation based on leaked military records shows it's far worse than anyone imagined. For soldiers in front-line assault units, the odds of surviving the war are approaching zero.

According to internal documents, more than 28,000 soldiers were assigned to a single Russian division in 2024. Its full wartime strength should not exceed 14,000.
That means roughly a whole division's worth of personnel was lost in one year — killed, wounded beyond return, captured, or missing. {2/12}

This unit has been at the front line since April 2024 and has never been withdrawn for rest or reconstitution. Instead, it is sustained by a constant inflow of new recruits from across Russia, sent directly into assault groups to replace the dead. They die. They are replaced. The cycle continues.
{Ru text} https://x.com/khodorkovsky_en/status/2036538556093456544/photo/1 {3/12}

The structure mirrors what Wagner Group did under Prigozhin: a relatively protected core of command and support staff, and expendable assault units fed by a steady stream of fresh bodies.
The difference is that Wagner relied on convicts. Today, many filling the same role are ordinary citizens who signed contracts — often with little understanding of what they were walking into. {4/12}

Officially, Russia recorded just 12 deaths for this division in all of 2024. In reality, nearly 4,800 soldiers are listed as "missing for more than one day." Cross-referencing the data suggests most of them are dead. {5/12}

Independent estimates put the real toll at roughly 5,000 killed or missing, and up to 10,000 severely wounded and permanently removed from service. That's around 15,000 irreversible losses from a single unit in a single year. {6/12}

A new recruit joining this division had a 15-17% chance of being killed within a year, and a 30-35% chance of suffering an injury that ended their service permanently. For those assigned to assault roles — which is where most new recruits are sent — the odds were even worse. {7/12}

New soldiers are not distributed evenly. They are overwhelmingly funneled into front-line rifle companies where losses are highest. In one regiment alone, more than 6,800 soldiers passed through in 2024. Around 5,000 were lost. {8/12}

The data also shows that older soldiers are more likely to be killed, and many officers are not career professionals but reservists or hastily trained personnel. This is not an army built for sustainability. It is built to absorb losses. {9/12}

Over two years of fighting, this division advanced roughly 50 kilometers — taking tens of thousands of casualties in the process. This isn't speculation or battlefield anecdotes. It's based on internal personnel records that were never supposed to be made public. {10/12}

Putin's complete disregard for human life — including the lives of his own citizens — should surprise no one at this point. He doesn't care how many people need to die, Russians or Ukrainians, as long as he remains in power. {11/12}

Read @dossier_center's full investigation here: https://dossier.center/minus27/ {Ru language} ... {12/12}

Hungarian foreign minister admits calling Russia's Lavrov 'before and after' key EU meetings
Sandor Zsiros | 24/03/2026

"Hungarian FM Péter Szijjártó confirmed he regularly contacts Russian foreign minister Sergei Lavrov 'before and after' European Council summits following reports alleging routine communication during breaks in Brussels meetings. Szijjártó said talking to other partners is the essence of diplomacy."

https://euronews.com/my-europe/2026/03/24/hungarys-foreign-minister-admits-calli...
-------------------------------------------

Change EU rules to stop Hungary's abuse of veto, Lithuanian foreign minister says
Shona Murray | 23/02/2026

"With Budapest having blocked a €90 billion lifeline loan for Ukraine and a twentieth sanctions package against Russia, Kęstutis Budrys says action needs to be taken to stop Hungary abusing its veto to block key EU policies ..."

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/02/23/change-eu-rules-to-stop-hungarys-a...

Kremlin hotline: Hungary colluded with Russia to delist sanctioned oligarchs, companies and banks
Wojciech Cieśla, Anna Gielewska, Szabolcs Panyi, Holger Roonemaa, Michael Weiss, Lukáš Diko, Ilya Ber | March 31, 2026

A hotline between Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov gave Moscow strategic information on critical EU issues, according to transcripts and audio recordings of calls reviewed by The Insider and its investigative partners. The materials indicate that Szijjártó acted on behalf of the Kremlin, including by pushing to remove sanctioned oligarchs from EU blacklists, including the sister of billionaire Alisher Usmanov. In another conversation, with Russia’s deputy energy minister, Szijjártó said he was doing his best to block an EU sanctions package and offered to try to save Russian entities from sanctions, adding that Slovakia’s government was also helping the coordinated Russian-Hungarian effort.

https://theins.press/en/inv/290911

$500 and a trip abroad: How recruits end up in Russian sabotage training camps
MARION SOLLETTY | March 25, 2026

"Court cases in Moldova are lifting the curtain on Russia’s transnational network to recruit, train and deploy spies and saboteurs.

... training camps in Bosnia and Serbia. There, participants learned how to fly drones, handle incendiary devices and evade law enforcement during protests — part of what Moldovan investigators say was a coordinated Russia-backed effort to recruit operatives for destabilization operations as far away as France and Germany ..."

https://www.politico.eu/article/russia-backed-recruitment-camps-moldova-europe-h...

Anton Gerashchenko ‪@antongerashchenko.bsky.social‬ | 3:02 AM · Apr 3, 2026
Ukrainian patriot. Advisor to Internal Affairs Minister (2021-2023)...

"A humanitarian catastrophe is unfolding in Russian-occupied Oleshky, Kherson region.
A Russian war crime on a massive scale. Those poor people...
Russia is effectively keeping the city under blockade: without fuel, electricity, medicine, and food ..."
{aerial photo} https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mil5npkeyk2i

"About 2,000 people currently remain in the city, including fifty children."
(text} https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mil5okanvs2i
{text} https://bsky.app/profile/antongerashchenko.bsky.social/post/3mil5npkeyk2i

Newly-Elected Hungarian PM Says Orbán Was Paying CPAC, Calls It a ‘Crime’ That ‘Will Have to Be Investigated’
Sarah Rumpf | Apr 14th, 2026

"... Several U.S. political commentators remarked on this revelation that Orbán’s government had been funding CPAC, including Reason reporter Billy Binion, who pointed out that meant that other American influencers and organizations may very well have been getting paid by the Hungarian government too, “which may explain why so many were shilling for one of the most corrupt politicians living today.”"

https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/newly-elected-hungarian-pm-says-orban-was-pa...
----------------------------------------------

{0:46, in Hungarian, I assume} https://x.com/splendid_pete/status/2043693756033941811
__________________________________

Heather Cox Richardson (historian, Boston College) | April 13, 2026 (Monday)
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson

"Hey Folks: I've posted tonight's letter twice only to have it instantly removed. Not sure what's going on. I'll try again for a while, but remember I also post it FOR FREE at heathercoxrichardson.substack.com"
---------------------------------------------

Apparently, third time was the charm:

"On April 12, the day of Hungary’s parliamentary elections, the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) posted on social media that it was closely watching the election and stood firmly behind Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

As a major networking event and ideological trendsetter for the radical right in the United States, CPAC has been instrumental in celebrating Orbán’s Hungary as the center of the effort to destroy the liberal democracy of the United States and Europe in order to replace it with what Orbán called “illiberal democracy,” or “Christian democracy.” His system replaced the multiculturalism at the heart of democracy with Christian culture, stopped the immigration that he believes undermines Hungarian culture, and rejected “adaptable family models” in favor of “the Christian family model.”

Today Péter Magyar, the man who will replace Orban after winning the election in a blowout, revealed that Orbán was using government money to finance CPAC. Orbán has clearly been working for the benefit of Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, and just days before the election, news broke that last October, Orbán told Putin, “In any matter where I can be of assistance, I am at your service.”

So it appears that CPAC was funded by a foreign government that was working closely with Vladimir Putin. In a speech today, Magyar told reporters that the outgoing foreign minister, who has been accused of working closely with Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov, was shredding confidential documents ..."

Johnny FD @JohnnyFDK | 9:34 PM · Apr 20, 2026:
For those wondering why NATO exists and why countries want to join the defensive alliance.

{Chronology, 1919 - 2022} https://x.com/JohnnyFDK/status/2046402138889388085/photo/1

Anton Gerashchenko {Ukraine} @Gerashchenko_en | 7:51 AM · May 27, 2026:
https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2059603419724197954

Russia is launching a new phase of pressure on the Baltic states.

Moscow has announced its intention to appeal to the International Court of Justice over the "suppression of the rights of Russian speakers" in Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia.

In reality, this is another element of a systematic effort to build a legitimacy framework for possible intervention.

Moscow’s rhetoric is standard and familiar: "language bans," "Russophobia," and "persecution of dissent." The foreign ministry pretends that negotiations "have yielded no results" and that complaints submitted to the UN and OSCE have been ignored - therefore, the Kremlin is allegedly forced to go to court. This logic of "exhausting all available means" is not a legal strategy but preparation of a narrative: every refusal of jurisdiction will be presented as proof of "Western bias" and justification for extrajudicial actions.

The scheme is not new. Before the 2008 war in Georgia, Russia spent years talking about the "genocide of Ossetians," distributing passports to residents of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and then used the claim of "protecting Russian citizens" as a formal justification for invasion. Immediately after that war, in 2009, Medvedev signed amendments to the Law on Defense that explicitly allowed the use of the military abroad to protect Russian citizens. The Kremlin moved the concept of "protecting compatriots" from propaganda into formal law. The same pattern repeated itself in Ukraine in 2014 and was expanded in 2022 - each time using the same set of narratives: "protecting Russians," "neo-Nazism," and "genocide."

Now this framework is being transferred to the Baltics while simultaneously receiving new legislative reinforcement. On May 13, 2026, the State Duma adopted, by 381 votes in favor, and on May 25 - the very same day the foreign ministry announced its intention to appeal to the ICJ - Putin signed a law allowing the use of the military abroad to protect Russian citizens from persecution by courts whose jurisdiction Moscow does not recognize.

What an astonishing coincidence: two steps taken on the same day - a legal claim and expanded legal authorization for the use of force, formalized simultaneously.

The Baltic situation has one fundamental difference from Georgia and Ukraine: passportization failed here. Accession to the EU and NATO in 2004 closed that window, so Moscow now appeals not to "Russian citizens" but to the legally much weaker category of "compatriots" and "Russian speakers."

The role of symbolic "proof of persecution" is played by the Gaponenko case - a man sentenced in Riga to ten years in prison after speaking at a Moscow conference about the "ethnocide of Russians," while Latvian courts classified his actions as incitement of hatred and assistance to a foreign state. The weakness of the legal basis does not stop Russia - it simply shifts the focus from legal results to propaganda effect.

NATO membership remains the main deterrent for Moscow. Therefore, the real goal of the campaign is to create a "gray zone" in the perception of the conflict and build an international record of an "unresolved issue concerning the rights of Russians." This objective becomes especially significant against the backdrop of April statements by the Trump administration regarding a possible U.S. withdrawal from NATO - uncertainty of this kind creates precisely the conditions under which the Kremlin’s human rights narrative becomes operationally useful.

The current campaign against the Baltic states is not a diplomatic episode. It is a methodical construction of an infrastructure within which any future escalation can be presented not as aggression, but as "forced protection."

This is exactly how Russia acted before.

Quote
Anton Gerashchenko @Gerashchenko_en · May 27
Russian propagandist Simonyan talks about the great sacred war that is not being fought against Ukraine. Take a listen.

Putin and his inner circle have stopped talking about peace and negotiations and are raising the stakes. They speak of a "great and sacred war" against Europe
(0:37) https://x.com/Gerashchenko_en/status/2059603419724197954

Ursula von der Leyen ‪@vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu‬ | 1:45 AM · May 29, 2026
https://bsky.app/profile/vonderleyen.ec.europa.eu/post/3mmxtjy6f422f

Russia’s war of aggression has crossed yet another line.
A Russian drone incursion struck a densely populated area in Romania, injuring civilians.
On EU territory.
We stand in full solidarity with Romania and its people.

As we continue strengthening our security and deterrence, especially on our Eastern border, we will keep increasing the pressure on Russia.
We are preparing a 21st package of sanctions.
---------------------------------------------------

Nato condemns Russian 'recklessness' after drone hits Romanian apartment block
Mircea Barbu and Chris Graham | May 29, 2026

"... Russian drones have strayed across Romania's border a number of times during the four-year war with Ukraine, but it is the first time citizens from the Nato country have been hurt. Russia has yet to comment on the incident.

Romania's emergency situations authority said the drone's entire explosive payload detonated and caused a fire on the 10th floor of the apartment block {on Friday the 29th in the eastern town of Galati - close to Romania's eastern border with Ukraine and Moldova}.

Two people received medical treatment after suffering abrasions and around 70 people were evacuated as the fire was put out... "

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c93x4nxlkjeo

MAGA Freaks Out After Trump Ally {Michael Flynn} Registers as Foreign Agent
Edith Olmsted | June 2, 2026

"... a Foreign Agents Registration Act form Monday that was dated October 2025, ... stated that Donald Trump’s former national security adviser {Michael Flynn} was now making $100,000 PER MONTH {CAPS are margd's} from the Republic of Srpska. The confederated entity of Bosnia and Herzegovina is run by Milorad Dodik, a key ally of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

... Sebastian Gorka, the pugnacious far-right influencer angling to be the next head of the National Counterterrorism Center, pointed out that Flynn may very well have broken the law.

“A reminder: When I joined the first Trump Administration, I was asked to sign two documents. In one I promised to not work as a lobbyist for a decade. In the second, I promised to never work for another government,” Gorka wrote in a post on X. “I was happy to do sign both. I presume GEN Flynn also signed similar documents.” ..."

https://newrepublic.com/post/211218/maga-donald-trump-ally-michael-flynn-foreign...

Armenia election: Prime Minister Pashinyan declares victory
Timothy Jones | June 6, 2026

"The election result, once confirmed, would cement Pashinyan's Westward push away from Russian influence. It is the first vote since a 2023 crushing military defeat by Azerbaijan...

... Early results showed {Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's pro-Europe} ruling Civil Contract Party leading with 52.5%, with Russian-Armenian billionaire Samvel Karapetyan's Strong Armenia alliance {pro-Russian} trailing behind at 23.2%, according to the Central Election Commission, citing 23.5% of electoral precincts reporting.

Ex-President Robert Kocharyan's Armenia alliance was third with some 9%, followed by the Prosperous Armenia Party, which cleared the electoral threshold with 4.6%. The commission said turnout was 59% ..."

https://www.dw.com/en/armenia-election-prime-minister-pashinyan-declares-victory...

Joni Askola @joni_askola | 9:51 AM · Jun 8, 2026:
Finnish PhD candidate @FSV_UK trying to help Ukraine with the @69thSB and by mocking disinformation.
https://x.com/joni_askola/status/2063982190107459610

The current Ukrainian superiority in mid-range drone warfare is a brilliant advantage that comes with an expiration date.
Failing to prepare for the day Russia matches this capability guarantees a catastrophic collapse of front line logistics for Ukraine.
Ukraine is rightfully capitalizing on its drone edge to annihilate Russian transport networks in occupied zones. This structural disruption is hurting Russian logistics across the board. The problem is that the Kremlin is pouring massive resources into catching up, meaning this window of superiority will eventually close.
When Russia deploys AI-enhanced mid-range strike drones at scale, any logistical movement within 100 kilometers of the front line faces destruction (on both sides). To survive, Ukraine must prepare immediately by layering multiple defensive measures. Securing future supply lines means installing more road nets, creating more specialized anti-drone drone units, adding cages to transport vehicles, shifting to logistical UGVs, and even building tunnels (when possible).
This situation is a harsh wake-up call for Europe as well. Western doctrine relies heavily on the assumption that logistics remain somewhat safe beyond conventional artillery range. This is a dangerous misconception that modern drone warfare is permanently erasing, and European nations must watch and learn before it is too late

{Photo of anti-drone road net} https://x.com/joni_askola/status/2063982190107459610/photo/1

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 12:35 AM · Jun 15, 2026
This is one of the most important churches in Ukraine. The Russians would not strike it by accident. Putin is deliberately attacking Christianity, history, culture
Quote

Christopher Miller @ChristopherJM · 6h
Metropolitan Epiphanius of Kyiv shares video of the Dormition Cathedral of the Kyiv Pechersk Lavra in flames.
“We ask for prayers for the salvation of the shrine from destruction,” he writes.
He calls the Russian attack: “Another Russian crime against humanity, against history, against Christianity.”
{0:06} https://x.com/ChristopherJM/status/2066317184775643330

Caolan @CaolanReports | 9:30 PM · Jun 14, 2026
This is what Moscow’s “Christian values” look like.
I cannot believe what I’m witnessing in Kyiv tonight. Priests at the Kyiv Lavra one of the holiest Christian sites in Europe are rushing to save crucifixes, icons and sacred artefacts while Russia attacks the city.
{0:21} https://x.com/CaolanReports/status/2066332603196555622

>131 margd: contd.

Yaroslav Trofimov {WSJ} @yarotrof | 4:57 AM · Jun 15, 2026:
"The bells of the Lavra rang like this when the Mongols invaded and sacked Kyiv in 1240."

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Saint Javelin @saintjavelin · 8h
"The bells of the Lavra rang out across Kyiv after Russia’s massive attack on the capital.
A sound of faith, resilience, and survival above a city that endured another night of terror."
(0:15) https://x.com/yarotrof/status/2066445027295817997

Ukraine Is Winning
Michael McFaul* | Jun 12, 2026

"... Unless something dramatic changes the dynamics of this conflict, the Ukrainian people, its warriors, and its leaders will continue to deny Putin his core war objectives. Putin will not subjugate Ukraine to Russia; he will not impose regime change, and he will not demilitarize a country that is today a pioneer of modern warfare. Ukraine will survive this war as a pro-European independent democracy, with most of its territory governed from Kyiv rather than Moscow. That will be a giant victory.

Sadly, however, the final contours of the end of this barbaric, tragic war are still not yet defined. On the battlefield, Ukraine’s advantage remains only slight. Ukraine today does not have the capacity to liberate its occupied territories. It may never develop that capacity. The shortages of Ukrainian soldiers on the frontline and interceptors for Patriot missile defense systems (PAC3s) to defend Ukrainian cities are real. (The latter deficit, however, might soon be diminished by the production of new Ukrainian interceptors.) And Ukrainian sacrifices in thwarting Putin’s invasion have been substantial and cannot continue forever.

At the same time, momentum on the battlefield has swung clearly to Ukrainian warriors and against Russian soldiers this spring. When victory is clearly not attainable—when the reason for fighting becomes increasingly ill-defined—unexpected things happen on the battlefield. Putin should be studying dynamics on the eastern front in World War I in 1917. To avoid a similar disaster for his regime, he should negotiate a ceasefire and declare victory now, before it’s too late. Time is no longer on his side."

https://michaelmcfaul.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-winning

* Professor of Political Science, Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute & Hoover Institution, all at Stanford University. U.S. Ambassador to Russia, 2012-2014.

Russia was behind arson attacks targeting PM, BBC reveals
Daniel De Simone,Tom Beal and Olga Malchevska | June 15, 2026

"... Our investigation has found the arson attack was just one part of an extensive campaign of sabotage, provocation and lies leading all the way to the Russian state.

The handler EL, who directed Lavrynovych, offered Russian citizenship in return for other attacks and glorified President Vladimir Putin ...

We have identified evidence suggesting that EL is a young Russian diplomat, schooled in information warfare by spies and propagandists, who is close to the highest levels of power in Moscow. His name is Evgeny Lyukshin. He is 23 and the son of a senior official.

Ukrainian national Lavrynovych, and Ukrainian-born Romanian national Stanislav Carpiuc, 27, have now been convicted at the Old Bailey of conspiring to target property and a car connected to the UK prime minister.

The first fire last year occurred when a Toyota, previously owned by the prime minister, was set ablaze in north London. There were two more arson attacks: one at the entrance to flats where Sir Keir used to live and another at the entrance to his house, which had been rented to his sister-in-law after his move to No 10 ..."

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8r2l352z2do

Scott Stedman (The News Ground):
"The official White House app is mandated on federal government employees' phones. Code inside the app is developed by a company that states it is headquartered in Europe. Nope. Its Russian business is booming, and they are still hiring Russian developers.

White House App Uses Code From Tech Vendor Still Operating in Russia
Scott Stedman | June 16, 2026
https://thenewsground.com/white-house-app-uses-code-from-tech-vendor-still-opera... "

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment
Institute for the Study of War | June 21, 2026

"Key Takeaways
- Ukrainian forces are conducting a strike campaign to deny Russia’s ability to sustain logistics and transport fuel across the Kerch Strait.
- Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil and transport infrastructure are already disrupting Russian logistics, straining energy supplies, and worsening fuel shortages across occupied Crimea.
- The Kerch Strait strikes are part of an ongoing systematic Ukrainian campaign to deny Russian forces the use of the main ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to occupied Crimea via occupied southern Ukraine.
- Russian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area, but this advance is not likely to be recent.
- Russian forces launched four missiles and 105 drones at Ukraine overnight."

https://understandingwar.org/research/russia-ukraine/russian-offensive-campaign-...

Laura Loomer’s Russian Turnaround
Alice Lee | Jun 24, 2026

"In a video posted on X on June 17, far-right commentator and Trump ally Laura Loomer, who has been a reliable Russian ally for six years, said that “I fell for Russian propaganda” and, for the first time, criticized Russia for its February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Loomer’s claimed change of heart almost immediately resulted in a significant drop in engagement on her X account. A NewsGuard analysis found that in the five days since she posted the video, Loomer’s X account received 751,000 likes, comments, and reposts — compared to an average of 1.05 million likes, comments, and reposts during the previous three five-day periods. That represents a 28 percent drop in engagement ..."

https://www.newsguardrealitycheck.com/p/laura-loomers-russian-turnaround

De-occupation of Crimea:

Anne Applebaum {The Atlantic} @anneapplebaum | 7:17 AM · Jun 22, 2026:
{Text excerpt} https://x.com/anneapplebaum/status/2069017014446784882/photo/1

"From the 2023 cover story in the Atlantic, a reminder and a gift link:
http://theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2023/06/counteroffensive-ukraine-zelensk... "

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Anne Applebaum @anneapplebaum · Jun 21
"Crimean authorities have stopped selling fuel to individuals and businesses as shortages become acute. Ukrainian strikes are slowly cutting access to the peninsula, hitting bridges, roads, fuel trucks and ferries."

Russian Authorities Halt Fuel Sales In Occupied Crimea
RFE/RL | June 21, 2026
https://rferl.org/a/russia-ukraine-war-crimea-fuel-shortage-drone-strikes/337856...

WarTranslated {Estonian blogger} @wartranslated | 5:02 AM · Jun 26, 2026:
"Footage from the ground shows a massive queue of vehicles waiting to exit occupied Crimea. {0:20} https://x.com/wartranslated/status/2070432570420945021

Russian state media reports that, as of 26 June, the queue had already grown to around 2,800 vehicles, including cars and fuel tankers. Meanwhile, Russian Telegram channels have called for the person who filmed the footage to be "found and beaten half to death".

The video was filmed on 25 June, meaning the queue is likely even longer now."

>139 margd: But possibly stalled after running out of fuel?

Yulia Navalnaya @yulia_navalnaya | 10:08 AM · Jun 26, 2026:
Translated from Russian
"On the 27th year of Putin's rule, Russia is facing a gasoline shortage. Queues at gas stations, record-high fuel prices—this is no longer an exception in a few regions, not a news sensation for a couple of days, but an everyday reality. Across the entire country, all the time.

Ordinary people are paying for this. Because the price of gasoline is built into every good—groceries, medicines, airline tickets. This means disrupted deliveries and ambulances that don't arrive on time. These are hardships that affect every family.

For years, Putin has been deceiving Russians (as usual) that the war wouldn't affect daily life. But it has long been affecting it.

There is a way out. A quick one. Stop the war with Ukraine and with its own people. When the state can't even provide people with affordable fuel, this isn't about temporary difficulties. This is about the cost of political decisions, for which the entire country is paying."

https://x.com/yulia_navalnaya/status/2070509447604998466

>140 2wonderY: I suspect only people with money or connections can get gas in Crimea, so Russians on the bridge are the lucky ones! If Ukraine can keep up the pressure on oil infrastructure, it could be a lo-ong winter in Russia. Are we seeing beginning of the end?