1Molly3028
https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-torpedoes-stock-market-concerns-after-years-...
Trump Torpedoes Stock Market Concerns After Years of Touting Gains — Now Favors ‘100-Year Perspective’ on Economy
President Donald Trump waved away concerns about the stock market after years of touting it as a gauge of success — instead praising the “100-year perspective” that he says China uses.
Trump Torpedoes Stock Market Concerns After Years of Touting Gains — Now Favors ‘100-Year Perspective’ on Economy
President Donald Trump waved away concerns about the stock market after years of touting it as a gauge of success — instead praising the “100-year perspective” that he says China uses.
3Molly3028
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/what-president-trump-is-doing-is-insane-exasperated-...
‘What President Trump Is Doing Is Insane’: Exasperated CNBC Host Loses It Over Trade War With Canada
“I’m going to say this at risk of my job,” he said. “But what President Trump is doing is insane. It is absolutely insane. It is about the eighth reason we’ve had for the tariffs. And now he’s saying he’s putting 50% tariffs on Canada unless they agree to become the 51st state. That is insane. There is just no other way of describing it.”
Liesman went on to say that Trump’s posturing toward Canada demonstrates that this Trump administration is much different from the first, “where there were people around him who seemed to, I don’t know what the word is, but smooth over some of the edges now.”
He added that the president’s policies by and large have been “bad for the attraction of capital.”
“We need massive amounts of capital if we want to fund our deficits, pay for the things we want to pay for, sell our bonds, and have high stock prices. And it seems as if this administration is doing everything it can to chase foreign capital away,” Liesman continued. “Insanity’s not a strategy. I’m sorry.
‘What President Trump Is Doing Is Insane’: Exasperated CNBC Host Loses It Over Trade War With Canada
“I’m going to say this at risk of my job,” he said. “But what President Trump is doing is insane. It is absolutely insane. It is about the eighth reason we’ve had for the tariffs. And now he’s saying he’s putting 50% tariffs on Canada unless they agree to become the 51st state. That is insane. There is just no other way of describing it.”
Liesman went on to say that Trump’s posturing toward Canada demonstrates that this Trump administration is much different from the first, “where there were people around him who seemed to, I don’t know what the word is, but smooth over some of the edges now.”
He added that the president’s policies by and large have been “bad for the attraction of capital.”
“We need massive amounts of capital if we want to fund our deficits, pay for the things we want to pay for, sell our bonds, and have high stock prices. And it seems as if this administration is doing everything it can to chase foreign capital away,” Liesman continued. “Insanity’s not a strategy. I’m sorry.
4Molly3028
https://www.mediaite.com/news/theyre-crushing-us-cnbcs-jim-cramer-flips-out-on-t...
‘They’re Crushing Us!’ CNBC’s Jim Cramer Flips Out on Trump Over Stock Market — Says He’s ‘Manufacturing’ a Recession
CNBC host Jim Cramer went off on President Donald Trump for fueling recession fears and cratering the stock market, noting competitor markets are “crushing us” and accusing Trump of potentially “manufacturing” a recession — or worse.
‘They’re Crushing Us!’ CNBC’s Jim Cramer Flips Out on Trump Over Stock Market — Says He’s ‘Manufacturing’ a Recession
CNBC host Jim Cramer went off on President Donald Trump for fueling recession fears and cratering the stock market, noting competitor markets are “crushing us” and accusing Trump of potentially “manufacturing” a recession — or worse.
5davidgn
>4 Molly3028: Normally, when Jim Cramer says something, I assume the opposite. Something, something, stopped clock twice a day, something, something.
7Molly3028
>5 davidgn:
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-commerce-secretary-says-tariffs-are-worth-it-e...
Trump Commerce Secretary Says Tariffs Are ‘Worth It’ Even If There’s a Recession
(CBS interview)
https://www.mediaite.com/tv/trump-commerce-secretary-says-tariffs-are-worth-it-e...
Trump Commerce Secretary Says Tariffs Are ‘Worth It’ Even If There’s a Recession
(CBS interview)
8Molly3028
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/03/11/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathawa...
This 94-year-old stock market legend saw the Trump slump coming
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is well positioned to withstand downturn
Warren Buffett has a simple motto for success: “Be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
The 94-year-old billionaire investor, dubbed the Sage of Omaha for his ability to predict the market, has proved the wisdom of this mantra yet again after correctly betting that Donald Trump would crash Wall Street.
While Buffett didn’t come out and say as much, he has expertly moved his money in order to protect against a crash. Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has been selling billions of dollars worth of shares and keeping cash instead.
***
About $143 billion in all.
This 94-year-old stock market legend saw the Trump slump coming
Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is well positioned to withstand downturn
Warren Buffett has a simple motto for success: “Be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful.”
The 94-year-old billionaire investor, dubbed the Sage of Omaha for his ability to predict the market, has proved the wisdom of this mantra yet again after correctly betting that Donald Trump would crash Wall Street.
While Buffett didn’t come out and say as much, he has expertly moved his money in order to protect against a crash. Buffett’s conglomerate Berkshire Hathaway has been selling billions of dollars worth of shares and keeping cash instead.
***
About $143 billion in all.
9margd
Uh oh?
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Wolf Richter • Sep 1, 2025
... The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 11.7% in August, the worst ever, a full percentage point above even the peak meltdown rate of the Financial Crisis (10.7%) ... Back in December 2022, the office CMBS delinquency rate was still 1.6%.
... The delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS, backed by rental apartment property mortgages, jumped to 6.9%, the worst since December 2015 ... Two years ago, the multifamily CMBS delinquency rate was still 1.8%.
“Extend and pretend”
“Cured” through forbearance
Among the newly delinquent multifamily mortgages
Who is on the hook for CRE mortgages?
For office mortgages: A big part is spread across investors...
For multifamily mortgages? Over half of multifamily debt was securitized by the US government (mostly Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which doubled their exposure over the past 10 years) and the CMBS were sold to investors; and state and local governments hold a small portion of it.
Banks and thrifts are on the hook for 29% of multifamily debt, life insurers for 12%, and private label CMBS – discussed above – CDOs, and other Asset Backed Securities for about 3%.
The relatively limited exposure by US banks to CRE (commercial real estate) mortgages indicates that CRE is not going to pose a systemic risk for the banking sector, that most of the losses hit investors and the government, and that the Fed can let it reset on its own.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-record-...
Office CMBS Delinquency Rate Spikes to Record 11.7%, Much Worse than Financial Crisis Wolf Richter • Sep 1, 2025
... The delinquency rate of office mortgages that have been securitized into commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) spiked to 11.7% in August, the worst ever, a full percentage point above even the peak meltdown rate of the Financial Crisis (10.7%) ... Back in December 2022, the office CMBS delinquency rate was still 1.6%.
... The delinquency rate for multifamily CMBS, backed by rental apartment property mortgages, jumped to 6.9%, the worst since December 2015 ... Two years ago, the multifamily CMBS delinquency rate was still 1.8%.
“Extend and pretend”
“Cured” through forbearance
Among the newly delinquent multifamily mortgages
Who is on the hook for CRE mortgages?
For office mortgages: A big part is spread across investors...
For multifamily mortgages? Over half of multifamily debt was securitized by the US government (mostly Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac which doubled their exposure over the past 10 years) and the CMBS were sold to investors; and state and local governments hold a small portion of it.
Banks and thrifts are on the hook for 29% of multifamily debt, life insurers for 12%, and private label CMBS – discussed above – CDOs, and other Asset Backed Securities for about 3%.
The relatively limited exposure by US banks to CRE (commercial real estate) mortgages indicates that CRE is not going to pose a systemic risk for the banking sector, that most of the losses hit investors and the government, and that the Fed can let it reset on its own.
https://wolfstreet.com/2025/09/01/office-cmbs-delinquency-rate-spikes-to-record-...
10margd
Roman Sheremeta 🇺🇸🇺🇦 @rshereme | 10:08 AM · Sep 6, 2025
Professor of Economics. Cleveland, OH.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1964329808986251480
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1964329808986251480.html?utm_campaign=topunro...
1/n The U.S. economy is in real trouble — just look at the latest jobs report.
With 300+ million people, the U.S. historically added about 150,000 jobs a month, roughly in line with population growth.
Bar chart displaying U.S. Non Farm Payrolls in thousands from August 2024 to August 2025. https://x.com/rshereme/status/1964329808986251480/photo/1
2/ Then came the pandemic crash of spring 2020: 1.4 million jobs lost in March, 20 million in April.
3/ The rebound followed: millions of jobs added monthly in summer–fall 2020. In 2021 growth slowed, but in 2022 job creation surged to 400,000–900,000 a month — two to four times the historical norm.
4/ By 2023, things leveled at 200–250k a month. In 2024, sometimes closer to 100k, still solid. Toward the end of Biden’s term, the pace accelerated again — some months above 300k.
5/ Then, January 5: a new president. Winter–spring: job growth cooled to 100–120k.
6/ Then came tariffs and deportations from farms and construction sites. May saw just 19k new jobs — the weakest in decades outside the pandemic. June: –13k — catastrophic. July: 79k — historically low again.
7/ The response? Fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Blame the “bad numbers.” Appoint your own guy.
Didn’t help. The new chief reported only +22k in August — and revised June and July down even further.
8/ The biggest losses? Manufacturing. Exactly where tariffs were supposed to “bring jobs back.”
9/ The excuse? “We’re building a record number of factories. Imports are banned. Everything will be made in the U.S. Just wait.” Yet construction is also down. Where are all those workers?
10/ The truth is simple: the economy runs on stability. Tariffs, new laws, even new ministries — business can adapt.
What kills growth is chaos. One thing in the morning, another by noon, something else by evening, and tomorrow — no one knows.
11/ Wild swings — cuts one day, threats to allies the next, hugs with enemies after — leave businesses unable to plan or invest.
Trump’s policies are killing the U.S. economy.
Source: adapted from Vasyl Taras {Professor of International Business and a Department Chair at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro}
Professor of Economics. Cleveland, OH.
https://x.com/rshereme/status/1964329808986251480
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1964329808986251480.html?utm_campaign=topunro...
1/n The U.S. economy is in real trouble — just look at the latest jobs report.
With 300+ million people, the U.S. historically added about 150,000 jobs a month, roughly in line with population growth.
Bar chart displaying U.S. Non Farm Payrolls in thousands from August 2024 to August 2025. https://x.com/rshereme/status/1964329808986251480/photo/1
2/ Then came the pandemic crash of spring 2020: 1.4 million jobs lost in March, 20 million in April.
3/ The rebound followed: millions of jobs added monthly in summer–fall 2020. In 2021 growth slowed, but in 2022 job creation surged to 400,000–900,000 a month — two to four times the historical norm.
4/ By 2023, things leveled at 200–250k a month. In 2024, sometimes closer to 100k, still solid. Toward the end of Biden’s term, the pace accelerated again — some months above 300k.
5/ Then, January 5: a new president. Winter–spring: job growth cooled to 100–120k.
6/ Then came tariffs and deportations from farms and construction sites. May saw just 19k new jobs — the weakest in decades outside the pandemic. June: –13k — catastrophic. July: 79k — historically low again.
7/ The response? Fire the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Blame the “bad numbers.” Appoint your own guy.
Didn’t help. The new chief reported only +22k in August — and revised June and July down even further.
8/ The biggest losses? Manufacturing. Exactly where tariffs were supposed to “bring jobs back.”
9/ The excuse? “We’re building a record number of factories. Imports are banned. Everything will be made in the U.S. Just wait.” Yet construction is also down. Where are all those workers?
10/ The truth is simple: the economy runs on stability. Tariffs, new laws, even new ministries — business can adapt.
What kills growth is chaos. One thing in the morning, another by noon, something else by evening, and tomorrow — no one knows.
11/ Wild swings — cuts one day, threats to allies the next, hugs with enemies after — leave businesses unable to plan or invest.
Trump’s policies are killing the U.S. economy.
Source: adapted from Vasyl Taras {Professor of International Business and a Department Chair at the University of North Carolina at Greensboro}
11JGL53
> 10
The question of the day is - How much longer can this shitte go on before a major economic blowup wipes out, not only Diaper Don, but all of us? Is a moment coming when we will just have to say "Well, it's been fun, but we all have to crawl into the dustbin of history now."?
Can't speak for anyone else, and wouldn't want to even try, but the only thing keeping me sane, calm and serene now is my incorrodable realization of Brahman Nirguna.
(incorrodable - it's a word - look it up on Webster's Dictionary)
The question of the day is - How much longer can this shitte go on before a major economic blowup wipes out, not only Diaper Don, but all of us? Is a moment coming when we will just have to say "Well, it's been fun, but we all have to crawl into the dustbin of history now."?
Can't speak for anyone else, and wouldn't want to even try, but the only thing keeping me sane, calm and serene now is my incorrodable realization of Brahman Nirguna.
(incorrodable - it's a word - look it up on Webster's Dictionary)
12margd
Bank of England Warns of Impending AI Disaster
"The risk of a sharp market correction has increased."
Victor Tangermann | Oct 8, 2025
"... Concerns over an AI bubble bursting have grown lately, with analysts recently finding that it’s 17 times the size of the dotcom-era bubble and four times bigger than the 2008 financial crisis...
... generative AI now accounts for roughly 40 percent of the United States’ gross domestic product. In other words, if the AI spending boom falls apart, it could take down the entire economy with it...."
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/bank-of-england-impending-ai-disast...
"The risk of a sharp market correction has increased."
Victor Tangermann | Oct 8, 2025
"... Concerns over an AI bubble bursting have grown lately, with analysts recently finding that it’s 17 times the size of the dotcom-era bubble and four times bigger than the 2008 financial crisis...
... generative AI now accounts for roughly 40 percent of the United States’ gross domestic product. In other words, if the AI spending boom falls apart, it could take down the entire economy with it...."
https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/bank-of-england-impending-ai-disast...
13margd
Global container growth slowing
Journal of Commerce (e-newsletter) | 10 Dec 2025
"Container volume growth is slowing, with a 2.1% year-over-year expansion in October the weakest since February, according to new data from Container Trade Statistics. The deep slump in US imports, thanks to cautious replenishing and months of frontloading to avoid higher tariffs, is proving the biggest drag on global growth.
Worryingly, imports from Asia to Europe in October notched the first year-over-year decline since February, dropping 3% compared to October 2024. Container growth tied to Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia was offset by weaker trade with North America and Europe.
Analysts expect the trend to continue in 2026, with North American ports on track for zero growth to a 2% retraction. Global container volumes, comparably, will expand 2.5% to 3.5% next year, according to shipowner association BIMCO."
https://www.joc.com
Journal of Commerce (e-newsletter) | 10 Dec 2025
"Container volume growth is slowing, with a 2.1% year-over-year expansion in October the weakest since February, according to new data from Container Trade Statistics. The deep slump in US imports, thanks to cautious replenishing and months of frontloading to avoid higher tariffs, is proving the biggest drag on global growth.
Worryingly, imports from Asia to Europe in October notched the first year-over-year decline since February, dropping 3% compared to October 2024. Container growth tied to Africa, the Middle East, Latin America and Asia was offset by weaker trade with North America and Europe.
Analysts expect the trend to continue in 2026, with North American ports on track for zero growth to a 2% retraction. Global container volumes, comparably, will expand 2.5% to 3.5% next year, according to shipowner association BIMCO."
https://www.joc.com
14margd
Barchart @Barchart | 1:26 AM · Dec 17, 2025 {x.com}
Financial Markets | Trading & Investing Tools | Charting | Stocks | Options | Futures | Commodities | Forex | News | & Much More
S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio soars above 40 for only the 2nd time in history 🚨 The other time was the Dot Com Bubble 🤯😱 Probably Fine, Carry On 🫡
Graph, Schiller P/E Ratio https://x.com/Barchart/status/2001177118663655830/photo/1
Financial Markets | Trading & Investing Tools | Charting | Stocks | Options | Futures | Commodities | Forex | News | & Much More
S&P 500 Shiller PE Ratio soars above 40 for only the 2nd time in history 🚨 The other time was the Dot Com Bubble 🤯😱 Probably Fine, Carry On 🫡
Graph, Schiller P/E Ratio https://x.com/Barchart/status/2001177118663655830/photo/1
15margd
Cassandra Unchained
@michaeljburry*
9:36 PM · Dec 16, 2025
This is a very interesting chart, as household stock wealth being higher than real estate wealth has only happened in the late 60s and late 90s, the last two times the ensuing bear market lasted years. Beary Burry
{Graph} https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/2001119398019621358/photo/1
* Official X account for “The Big Short” Mike Burry, MD, dismissed as a "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett.
@michaeljburry*
9:36 PM · Dec 16, 2025
This is a very interesting chart, as household stock wealth being higher than real estate wealth has only happened in the late 60s and late 90s, the last two times the ensuing bear market lasted years. Beary Burry
{Graph} https://x.com/michaeljburry/status/2001119398019621358/photo/1
* Official X account for “The Big Short” Mike Burry, MD, dismissed as a "Cassandra" by Warren Buffett.
16margd
Mark Cuban warns 5 key industries could crumble in the next recession
Jordan Major | Feb 4, 2026
"... industries and business models that tend to crack when consumer spending tightens, capital dries up, or technology shifts too fast ... five areas investors may want to watch closely heading into the next recession.
1. Media sector
2. Restaurants, clothing brands, and liquor companies
3. Small cities and rural economies
4. AI infrastructure and data centers
5. Platform-dependent businesses
Bottom line
Mark Cuban's recession warnings aren't about predicting the next market crash or calling the exact timing of a downturn. Instead, they focus on something more practical: which business models tend to break under pressure.
Industries with low barriers to entry, high fixed costs, reliance on discretionary spending, or dependence on platforms they don't control are the ones Cuban believes face the greatest risk against good financial fitness.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/mark-cuban-warns-5-key-industries-...
Jordan Major | Feb 4, 2026
"... industries and business models that tend to crack when consumer spending tightens, capital dries up, or technology shifts too fast ... five areas investors may want to watch closely heading into the next recession.
1. Media sector
2. Restaurants, clothing brands, and liquor companies
3. Small cities and rural economies
4. AI infrastructure and data centers
5. Platform-dependent businesses
Bottom line
Mark Cuban's recession warnings aren't about predicting the next market crash or calling the exact timing of a downturn. Instead, they focus on something more practical: which business models tend to break under pressure.
Industries with low barriers to entry, high fixed costs, reliance on discretionary spending, or dependence on platforms they don't control are the ones Cuban believes face the greatest risk against good financial fitness.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/smallbusiness/mark-cuban-warns-5-key-industries-...
17margd
Reuters 57m {2/9/2026 Facebook}
"Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to curb holdings of U.S. Treasuries due to concern over concentration risk and market volatility, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter."
"Chinese regulators have advised financial institutions to curb holdings of U.S. Treasuries due to concern over concentration risk and market volatility, Bloomberg News reported on Monday, citing people familiar with the matter."
18margd
Consumers and businesses paid nearly 90% of Trump tariffs in 2025, new analysis found
Megan Cerullo | February 18, 2026
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-consumers-business-nearly-90-percent-...
------------------------------------------
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein | February 12, 2026
"Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers ..."
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025...
------------------------------------------
Hassett says authors of New York Fed tariff study should be disciplined: ‘Worst paper I’ve ever seen’
Jeff Cox | Feb 18 2026
"Key Points
- White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett* said Wednesday that the authors of a New York Fed paper that found U.S. companies and consumers are shouldering most of the tariff burden should be “disciplined.”
- “It’s, I think, the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system,” he said.
- The paper in question concluded that 90% of the tariff burden is being shouldered domestically ..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/hassett-says-authors-of-new-york-fed-tariff-stud...
-------------------------------------------
* "In October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Hassett was on the short list of five candidates being considered by President Trump to replace Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026" (Wikipedia)
Megan Cerullo | February 18, 2026
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-tariffs-consumers-business-nearly-90-percent-...
------------------------------------------
Who Is Paying for the 2025 U.S. Tariffs?
Mary Amiti, Chris Flanagan, Sebastian Heise, and David E. Weinstein | February 12, 2026
"Over the course of 2025, the average tariff rate on U.S. imports increased from 2.6 to 13 percent. In this blog post, we ask how much of the tariffs were paid by the U.S., using import data through November 2025. We find that nearly 90 percent of the tariffs’ economic burden fell on U.S. firms and consumers ..."
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/02/who-is-paying-for-the-2025...
------------------------------------------
Hassett says authors of New York Fed tariff study should be disciplined: ‘Worst paper I’ve ever seen’
Jeff Cox | Feb 18 2026
"Key Points
- White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett* said Wednesday that the authors of a New York Fed paper that found U.S. companies and consumers are shouldering most of the tariff burden should be “disciplined.”
- “It’s, I think, the worst paper I’ve ever seen in the history of the Federal Reserve system,” he said.
- The paper in question concluded that 90% of the tariff burden is being shouldered domestically ..."
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/18/hassett-says-authors-of-new-york-fed-tariff-stud...
-------------------------------------------
* "In October 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Hassett was on the short list of five candidates being considered by President Trump to replace Chair of the Federal Reserve Jerome Powell when his term ends in May 2026" (Wikipedia)
19margd
Ed Krassenstein @EdKrassen | 10:41 AM · Feb 20, 2026:
BREAKING: Trump's illegal tariffs are about to cause a huge mess in the US Economy.
Why?
"A coalition of 800 small businesses across the country who weren't happy about the tariffs saying they were the ones paying the brunt of these costs. They just put out a statement saying they are sending immediate letters to the white house and congress demanding full, fast and automatic tariff refunds. We talk about how the refunds work for the tariffs, how messy you envision this getting?"
Businesses will now request refunds, and there will likely be huge class action lawsuits against the US government. Additionally, the budget is about to have major issues.
(0:27, FOX) https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/2024872055162704087
BREAKING: Trump's illegal tariffs are about to cause a huge mess in the US Economy.
Why?
"A coalition of 800 small businesses across the country who weren't happy about the tariffs saying they were the ones paying the brunt of these costs. They just put out a statement saying they are sending immediate letters to the white house and congress demanding full, fast and automatic tariff refunds. We talk about how the refunds work for the tariffs, how messy you envision this getting?"
Businesses will now request refunds, and there will likely be huge class action lawsuits against the US government. Additionally, the budget is about to have major issues.
(0:27, FOX) https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/2024872055162704087
20margd
Ontario Premier Doug Ford:
"Today’s U.S. Supreme Court decision is another important victory in the fight against President Trump's tariffs but the battle isn't over yet. We need to watch how the White House reacts. We need to keep up the fight against tariffs on auto, steel, aluminum and forestry, which remain in place and continue to hurt our workers. I won't stop fighting until every last tariff against Canada is dropped so we can grow our economies and create jobs on both sides of the border.
We're ready to do whatever it takes to protect workers, businesses and families. We're ready to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario." https://x.com/fordnation/status/2024887442143072645
"Today’s U.S. Supreme Court decision is another important victory in the fight against President Trump's tariffs but the battle isn't over yet. We need to watch how the White House reacts. We need to keep up the fight against tariffs on auto, steel, aluminum and forestry, which remain in place and continue to hurt our workers. I won't stop fighting until every last tariff against Canada is dropped so we can grow our economies and create jobs on both sides of the border.
We're ready to do whatever it takes to protect workers, businesses and families. We're ready to do whatever it takes to protect Ontario." https://x.com/fordnation/status/2024887442143072645
21MsMixte
>19 margd: He'll bring the tariffs back under a different law (hey, we're having a war in the Middle East, therefore I can enact more emergency powers). Oh, eventually it'll all be declared illegal, BUT! it won't happen until a new administration takes office, and it will all be dumped in the laps of the Democrats.
22margd
>19 margd: Meanwhile, as always, fat cats will probably profit on the backs of struggling little guys and taxpayers and probably the economy ...
They Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs. Now They Stand to Make Millions
Joel Khalili | Feb 20, 2026
After the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, investment firms are in line for a whopping return on a niche trade.
Investment firms are on track for an enormous payday after the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) struck down President Donald Trump’s signature tariff policy on Friday.
When Trump introduced sweeping tariffs on foreign goods last April, hedge funds and specialist investment firms began to bet on the possibility that the courts might rule that he had violated the law. They did that by purchasing the right to theoretical tariff refunds at cents on the dollar from struggling importers who wanted to swap the possibility of a future refund for an immediate cash payment ...
https://www.wired.com/story/they-bet-against-trumps-tariffs-now-they-stand-to-ma...
They Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs. Now They Stand to Make Millions
Joel Khalili | Feb 20, 2026
After the US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s tariff regime, investment firms are in line for a whopping return on a niche trade.
Investment firms are on track for an enormous payday after the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS) struck down President Donald Trump’s signature tariff policy on Friday.
When Trump introduced sweeping tariffs on foreign goods last April, hedge funds and specialist investment firms began to bet on the possibility that the courts might rule that he had violated the law. They did that by purchasing the right to theoretical tariff refunds at cents on the dollar from struggling importers who wanted to swap the possibility of a future refund for an immediate cash payment ...
https://www.wired.com/story/they-bet-against-trumps-tariffs-now-they-stand-to-ma...
23margd
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter | 9:39 PM · Mar 8, 2026:
The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2030820615800918090
"BREAKING: The world is now experiencing its largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply per day.
Top oil supply shocks:
1. Hormuz Closure (NOW): -20 million b/d
2. Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million b/d
3. Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5 million b/d
4. Iraq-Kuwait War (1990): -4.3 million b/d
5. Iran-Iraq War (1980): -4.0 million b/d
6. Russia-Ukraine War (2022): -2.0 million b/d
The current supply shock is roughly the same size as the top 2-6 COMBINED."
The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2030820615800918090
"BREAKING: The world is now experiencing its largest oil supply shock in history, losing nearly 20 million barrels of oil supply per day.
Top oil supply shocks:
1. Hormuz Closure (NOW): -20 million b/d
2. Iranian Revolution (1978): -5.5 million b/d
3. Yom Kippur War (1973): -4.5 million b/d
4. Iraq-Kuwait War (1990): -4.3 million b/d
5. Iran-Iraq War (1980): -4.0 million b/d
6. Russia-Ukraine War (2022): -2.0 million b/d
The current supply shock is roughly the same size as the top 2-6 COMBINED."
24margd
‘This cannot be sustainable’: The U.S. borrowed $50 billion a week for the past five months, the CBO {Congressional Budget Office} says
Eleanor Pringle | March 10, 2026
"The U.S. Treasury’s borrowing showed no signs of slowing as the U.S. headed deeper into fiscal year 2026, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reporting that another $1 trillion was added to the federal deficit in the first five months of the year.
The monthly budget review from the CBO, updated to February 2026 and released yesterday, showed that the government is estimated to have borrowed $308 billion last month alone.
Of course, with more borrowing comes higher interest costs on the debt. Between October 2025 (when the 2026 fiscal year started) and February, the Treasury spent an additional $31 billion on net interest on public debt, compared to the prior year. As a result, in just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion."
https://fortune.com/2026/03/10/treasury-debt-borrowing-five-months-deficit-warni...
Eleanor Pringle | March 10, 2026
"The U.S. Treasury’s borrowing showed no signs of slowing as the U.S. headed deeper into fiscal year 2026, with the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) reporting that another $1 trillion was added to the federal deficit in the first five months of the year.
The monthly budget review from the CBO, updated to February 2026 and released yesterday, showed that the government is estimated to have borrowed $308 billion last month alone.
Of course, with more borrowing comes higher interest costs on the debt. Between October 2025 (when the 2026 fiscal year started) and February, the Treasury spent an additional $31 billion on net interest on public debt, compared to the prior year. As a result, in just five months, the Treasury forked out a total of $433 billion to service public debt, which is now nearing $38.9 trillion."
https://fortune.com/2026/03/10/treasury-debt-borrowing-five-months-deficit-warni...
25margd
Waves of diverted containers swamping Middle East ports
Greg Knowler | Mar 10, 2026
"Congestion from unexpected volumes is building at container ports outside the war-torn Persian Gulf as cargo that was en route to ports located on the west side of the narrow Strait of Hormuz is discharged early.
Ports across the Persian Gulf — including regional transhipment powerhouse Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Kuwait — were shut down after the US launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Some of the ports have since resumed operations, but vessel arrivals remain limited as the war rages on.
Bottlenecks are growing at ports closest to the Persian Gulf..."
{Journal of Commerce article} is only available to subscribers and 30-day free trial users: https://www.joc.com/article/waves-of-diverted-containers-swamping-middle-east-po...
Greg Knowler | Mar 10, 2026
"Congestion from unexpected volumes is building at container ports outside the war-torn Persian Gulf as cargo that was en route to ports located on the west side of the narrow Strait of Hormuz is discharged early.
Ports across the Persian Gulf — including regional transhipment powerhouse Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, Doha and Kuwait — were shut down after the US launched air strikes on Iran on Feb. 28. Some of the ports have since resumed operations, but vessel arrivals remain limited as the war rages on.
Bottlenecks are growing at ports closest to the Persian Gulf..."
{Journal of Commerce article} is only available to subscribers and 30-day free trial users: https://www.joc.com/article/waves-of-diverted-containers-swamping-middle-east-po...
26margd
The Iran War Is Throwing Global Shipping Into Chaos
STEVEN LEVY | Mar 13, 2026
"{The Iran War} is stranding cargo and threatening inflation ... Chaos is back, and it’s going to cost us all.
... Port countries like Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are central hubs for goods in transit. One large shipping company told {Ryan Petersen, CEO of the logistics company Flexport} that it won’t load containers on ships routed through some of the major ports of the Middle East. If a voyage is underway, the container must be dropped off at the next port of call. “Now you as an importer or a company that’s shipping cargo suddenly have a container in France or Tangier, and it’s on you to figure out what to do about this,” says Petersen. Doing nothing means that the cargo racks up higher and higher storage fees. All those costs ultimately get passed on to consumers.
Petersen tells me that only recently did major shipping companies resume moving cargo through the Red Sea, which had been deemed a hazard due to Houthi attacks. Now that’s come to a standstill because of the war. The alternative route has been a long detour around Africa. “It drives up the price quite a bit, because a voyage costs more, but more importantly, it reduces supply: Ships do fewer voyages per year,” says Petersen. “There was a lot of hope that returning through the Red Sea would increase capacity in the market and reduce prices, but now that’s off the table.”
... That’s not the worst of it, he adds. Flexport isn’t heavily involved in the oil trade, but Petersen thinks that energy shortages will have a bigger negative impact than whatever is in those containers stuck in Tangier. “The US is self-sufficient, but globally there’s not enough oil to go around—you’re gonna have shortages, and then you will see a crazy parabolic rise in the price.”
Petersen is not terribly optimistic about what happens to the supply chain if the war goes on. “They need to get this solved,” he says. “Besides oil, the thing I’m really worried about is inflation.” Petersen notes that the president has said the US might insure all ships going through the strait, costing possibly hundreds of billions of dollars. Also, he says, “we have to print more money to cover these tariff bills, as we have to refund $175 billion.” (Petersen believes there’s a 99 percent chance the US refunds that money to importers. But not to the consumers who paid more for goods.) ..."
https://www.wired.com/story/iran-war-global-supply-chain-chaos
STEVEN LEVY | Mar 13, 2026
"{The Iran War} is stranding cargo and threatening inflation ... Chaos is back, and it’s going to cost us all.
... Port countries like Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates are central hubs for goods in transit. One large shipping company told {Ryan Petersen, CEO of the logistics company Flexport} that it won’t load containers on ships routed through some of the major ports of the Middle East. If a voyage is underway, the container must be dropped off at the next port of call. “Now you as an importer or a company that’s shipping cargo suddenly have a container in France or Tangier, and it’s on you to figure out what to do about this,” says Petersen. Doing nothing means that the cargo racks up higher and higher storage fees. All those costs ultimately get passed on to consumers.
Petersen tells me that only recently did major shipping companies resume moving cargo through the Red Sea, which had been deemed a hazard due to Houthi attacks. Now that’s come to a standstill because of the war. The alternative route has been a long detour around Africa. “It drives up the price quite a bit, because a voyage costs more, but more importantly, it reduces supply: Ships do fewer voyages per year,” says Petersen. “There was a lot of hope that returning through the Red Sea would increase capacity in the market and reduce prices, but now that’s off the table.”
... That’s not the worst of it, he adds. Flexport isn’t heavily involved in the oil trade, but Petersen thinks that energy shortages will have a bigger negative impact than whatever is in those containers stuck in Tangier. “The US is self-sufficient, but globally there’s not enough oil to go around—you’re gonna have shortages, and then you will see a crazy parabolic rise in the price.”
Petersen is not terribly optimistic about what happens to the supply chain if the war goes on. “They need to get this solved,” he says. “Besides oil, the thing I’m really worried about is inflation.” Petersen notes that the president has said the US might insure all ships going through the strait, costing possibly hundreds of billions of dollars. Also, he says, “we have to print more money to cover these tariff bills, as we have to refund $175 billion.” (Petersen believes there’s a 99 percent chance the US refunds that money to importers. But not to the consumers who paid more for goods.) ..."
https://www.wired.com/story/iran-war-global-supply-chain-chaos
27margd
"{Financial Times} confirming that people inside the oil trading business were wondering who the mysterious "big seller' was of oil futures. Rigging markets is both illegal and dangerous. If the US loses its position as a legit place to conduct business, it will be because of its tendency to lie, cheat, and steal.}
{Text excerpt} https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/2032444834108055764/photo/1
Chris Martenson @chrismartenson | 9:13 AM · Mar 13, 2026
{Text excerpt} https://x.com/chrismartenson/status/2032444834108055764/photo/1
Chris Martenson @chrismartenson | 9:13 AM · Mar 13, 2026
28margd
The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter | 5:59 PM · Mar 13, 2026:
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
US farms are disappearing at an alarming rate:
- The number of US farms fell -15,000 YoY in 2025, to 1.87 million, the lowest since the 1850s.
- This marks the 3rd annual decline and the 6th over the last 7 years.
- Over this period, the number of farms has dropped -158,200, or -8%.
- At the same time, total farmland has fallen -24.9 million acres, to 874 million, the lowest since the 1910s.
- Meanwhile, farm bankruptcy filings surged +36% YoY, to 293 in the first 9 months of 2025.
- US farms are in a long-term decline.
{graph, # US farms, 2018-2025} https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2032577190135828861/photo/1
Official X account for The Kobeissi Letter, an industry leading commentary on the global capital markets.
US farms are disappearing at an alarming rate:
- The number of US farms fell -15,000 YoY in 2025, to 1.87 million, the lowest since the 1850s.
- This marks the 3rd annual decline and the 6th over the last 7 years.
- Over this period, the number of farms has dropped -158,200, or -8%.
- At the same time, total farmland has fallen -24.9 million acres, to 874 million, the lowest since the 1910s.
- Meanwhile, farm bankruptcy filings surged +36% YoY, to 293 in the first 9 months of 2025.
- US farms are in a long-term decline.
{graph, # US farms, 2018-2025} https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/2032577190135828861/photo/1
29jjwilson61
>28 margd: I bet the remaining farms are larger and more are owned by corporations.
30margd
>29 jjwilson61: Yep ... I seem to recall that VP Vance was employed by such an investment firm?
31MsMixte
>30 margd: Makes one wonder how much support Vance would get from farmers if Vance is planning on running for the presidency.
One wouldn't think that he'd be in good graces with farmers, but then again, farmers overwhelmingly voted for Trump.
One wouldn't think that he'd be in good graces with farmers, but then again, farmers overwhelmingly voted for Trump.
322wonderY
>30 margd: He wasn’t just employed. He is an investor.
33margd
Fortune: "The United States national debt crossed $39 trillion for the first time Tuesday, arriving at the grim milestone less than five months after it first hit $38 trillion in late October—a pace of accumulation that budget watchdogs and academic economists are now calling, with unusual unanimity, “unsustainable.”"
-----------------------------------------------
The national debt just crossed $39 trillion—almost doubling since Trump vowed to erase it
Nick Lichtenberg | March 18, 2026
"... A clock that doesn’t stop
At the current rate of growth, the Peterson Foundation projects that the debt will hit $40 trillion before this fall’s elections—another trillion-dollar jump in roughly the same compressed timeframe. {Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation} called the figure “staggering.” The speed of accumulation has accelerated sharply: the debt added its latest trillion in what the foundation estimates is less than five months, a rate of fiscal expansion that has few modern precedents outside of wartime or acute financial crisis.
The milestone arrives as the Congressional Budget Office, in its February 2026 outlook, projected that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and swell to $3.1 trillion by 2036 under current law. Over that same decade, debt held by the public is projected to surge from 101% of GDP today to 120% of GDP by 2036, eclipsing the previous all-time record of 106% set just after World War II. The long-term picture is even bleaker: CBO’s extended baseline now shows debt rising to 175% of GDP over the next 30 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The $1 trillion interest bill
Perhaps the most alarming dimension of the crossing is what it costs just to carry the debt. Net interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026—nearly triple the $345 billion in interest the government paid in 2020, at the onset of the pandemic. In the first three months of the current fiscal year alone, net interest payments reached $270 billion, already surpassing the nation’s defense spending for the same period.
Peterson’s statement underscored just how persistent that interest burden will be: over the next 30 years, the government is projected to spend nearly $100 trillion on interest alone—an amount that dwarfs every major federal program. For individual Americans, the Peterson Foundation puts the interest tab at an average of at least $47,000 per person over the next decade.
What the numbers actually mean
... The real problem,” {Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and one of the nation’s foremost fiscal economists} said, agreeing with Peterson, “is that we are on an upward debt path that is unsustainable.” When you account for both explicit debt held by the public and the implicit liabilities buried in Social Security, Medicare, and other long-term obligations, Smetters’ model puts the true fiscal gap closer to $100 trillion.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model has previously estimated that, without major policy changes, U.S. Treasury debt will become unable to roll over its accumulated obligations within roughly 20 years—a scenario that would force either explicit default on interest payments or an implicit default through inflation.
A Credibility Gap in Washington
Politics and the Public ..."
https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/how-big-national-debt-39-trillion-trump-promises/
https://bit.ly/4bRErNa
-----------------------------------------------
The national debt just crossed $39 trillion—almost doubling since Trump vowed to erase it
Nick Lichtenberg | March 18, 2026
"... A clock that doesn’t stop
At the current rate of growth, the Peterson Foundation projects that the debt will hit $40 trillion before this fall’s elections—another trillion-dollar jump in roughly the same compressed timeframe. {Michael A. Peterson, CEO of the Peter G. Peterson Foundation} called the figure “staggering.” The speed of accumulation has accelerated sharply: the debt added its latest trillion in what the foundation estimates is less than five months, a rate of fiscal expansion that has few modern precedents outside of wartime or acute financial crisis.
The milestone arrives as the Congressional Budget Office, in its February 2026 outlook, projected that the federal deficit will reach $1.9 trillion in fiscal year 2026 and swell to $3.1 trillion by 2036 under current law. Over that same decade, debt held by the public is projected to surge from 101% of GDP today to 120% of GDP by 2036, eclipsing the previous all-time record of 106% set just after World War II. The long-term picture is even bleaker: CBO’s extended baseline now shows debt rising to 175% of GDP over the next 30 years, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.
The $1 trillion interest bill
Perhaps the most alarming dimension of the crossing is what it costs just to carry the debt. Net interest payments on the national debt are projected to exceed $1 trillion in fiscal year 2026—nearly triple the $345 billion in interest the government paid in 2020, at the onset of the pandemic. In the first three months of the current fiscal year alone, net interest payments reached $270 billion, already surpassing the nation’s defense spending for the same period.
Peterson’s statement underscored just how persistent that interest burden will be: over the next 30 years, the government is projected to spend nearly $100 trillion on interest alone—an amount that dwarfs every major federal program. For individual Americans, the Peterson Foundation puts the interest tab at an average of at least $47,000 per person over the next decade.
What the numbers actually mean
... The real problem,” {Kent Smetters, director of the Penn Wharton Budget Model and one of the nation’s foremost fiscal economists} said, agreeing with Peterson, “is that we are on an upward debt path that is unsustainable.” When you account for both explicit debt held by the public and the implicit liabilities buried in Social Security, Medicare, and other long-term obligations, Smetters’ model puts the true fiscal gap closer to $100 trillion.
The Penn Wharton Budget Model has previously estimated that, without major policy changes, U.S. Treasury debt will become unable to roll over its accumulated obligations within roughly 20 years—a scenario that would force either explicit default on interest payments or an implicit default through inflation.
A Credibility Gap in Washington
Politics and the Public ..."
https://fortune.com/2026/03/18/how-big-national-debt-39-trillion-trump-promises/
https://bit.ly/4bRErNa
34margd
Dollar dips as oil shock turns central banks hawkish
Jiaxing Li | March 19, 2026
{Paywall} https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-toppled-oil-shock-turns-centra...
Jiaxing Li | March 19, 2026
{Paywall} https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-toppled-oil-shock-turns-centra...
35margd
Heather Exner-Pirot @ExnerPirot | 12:51 PM · Mar 21, 2026
Arctic/northern/Indigenous/rural/resource development. Director of Energy, Natural Resources and Environment @MLInstitute, and Special Adviser @BizCouncilofCan ... Calgary, Alberta
"Some of you still seem to think oil is only used for gasoline for light duty vehicles, because that’s the only time you’ve physically encountered it.
Expensive and scarce oil is an omnicrisis for the global economy. It cannot be replaced by electrons from solar panels.
The Petrochemical Products Flow Chart: https://x.com/ExnerPirot/status/2035398974451179729/photo/1"
Arctic/northern/Indigenous/rural/resource development. Director of Energy, Natural Resources and Environment @MLInstitute, and Special Adviser @BizCouncilofCan ... Calgary, Alberta
"Some of you still seem to think oil is only used for gasoline for light duty vehicles, because that’s the only time you’ve physically encountered it.
Expensive and scarce oil is an omnicrisis for the global economy. It cannot be replaced by electrons from solar panels.
The Petrochemical Products Flow Chart: https://x.com/ExnerPirot/status/2035398974451179729/photo/1"
36jjwilson61
If it's so useful, then why are we burning it!
37margd
>36 jjwilson61: Future generations will be asking that, I bet...
38margd
COMMENT
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it
Steve H. Hanke and David M. Walker | March 23, 2026
{professor of applied economics and a former comptroller general of the United States}
" ... The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025. {not including social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare} . . . .
The government’s consolidated balance sheet position, excluding the SOSI, deteriorated by nearly $2.07 trillion between FY 2024 and FY 2025, reaching a staggering negative $41.72 trillion. Total liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. The largest drivers were a $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable (now $30.33 trillion) and a $438.8 billion increase in federal employee and veteran benefits payable (now $15.47 trillion)
... The United States is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole, it’s a financial fact. We’re not bankrupt, at least not yet, and there’s a big difference between the two. Insolvency is when you can’t pay your bills when they’re due. When you can’t pay your bills and you can’t borrow the money to cover them, then you are bankrupt.
... Not only has the financial press ignored the consolidated financial statements, but most members of Congress and members of the general public will not read the consolidated financial statements. Documents like the consolidated financial statements are not the kind of thing you want to read before driving. If that’s not bad enough, most people cannot relate to the trillion-dollar numbers in the financial statements. Therefore, it is appropriate to translate them into terms that people will understand.
... {So they divided the numbers by 100 million and presented this example:}
That household earns $52,446 and spends $73,378 — running a $20,932 annual deficit. Its total liabilities and unfunded promises amount to $1,361,788 against just $60,554 in assets, leaving it $1.3 million in the hole. Uncle Sam, by any accounting standard, is insolvent.
{The authors want a “Fiscal Commission Act,” proposed in Congress, which would}
force a public reckoning with the facts, the trade-offs, and the hard choices that restoring fiscal health requires.
{That sounds reasonable. Their other suggestion — an Art. V convention to write a balanced budget amendment — is just nuts...}
... Congress has clearly lost control of the nation’s finances. America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming impossible to ignore.
{... Not just Congress, though its dereliction of duty ranks high on the list of causes. The Trump administration has been (a) cutting taxes for all those those who can afford them and also (b) cutting projects (illegally) that it doesn’t like or that don’t benefit them while (c) spending money like a drunken sailor on personal pet projects, projects they’ve been “urged” to support, and of course war. Nothing like a good rousing war to get the blood going, erections rising, and money flowing." ..."
PAYWALL: https://fortune.com/2026/03/23/us-government-insolvent-fiscal-crisis-fix/
{Bracketed} comments are from Daily Kos article below.
--------------------------------------------
The United States is Insolvent - Though Only FORTUNE Seems to Have Noticed
Dan K | March 23, 2026
"... Guess what, folks: We’re broke. And the Treasury just admitted it (65 pages in*). The narrative pages of the report don’t say that, of course; they just explain what each section shows and where the data comes from; a relatively quick skim found no analysis ... "
* Financial Statements of the United States Government for the Fiscal Years Ended September 30, 2025, and 2024 (PDF from the Bureau of the Fiscal Service):
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2025/f...
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/3/23/2374526/-The-United-States-is-Insolve...
The Treasury just declared the U.S. insolvent. The media missed it
Steve H. Hanke and David M. Walker | March 23, 2026
{professor of applied economics and a former comptroller general of the United States}
" ... The U.S. government is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole — it’s the conclusion drawn directly from the Treasury Department’s own consolidated financial statements for fiscal year 2025, released last week to near-total media silence. The numbers: $6.06 trillion in total assets against $47.78 trillion in total liabilities as of September 30, 2025. {not including social insurance programs such as Social Security and Medicare} . . . .
The government’s consolidated balance sheet position, excluding the SOSI, deteriorated by nearly $2.07 trillion between FY 2024 and FY 2025, reaching a staggering negative $41.72 trillion. Total liabilities are now nearly eight times the value of reported assets. The largest drivers were a $2 trillion increase in federal debt and interest payable (now $30.33 trillion) and a $438.8 billion increase in federal employee and veteran benefits payable (now $15.47 trillion)
... The United States is insolvent. That’s not hyperbole, it’s a financial fact. We’re not bankrupt, at least not yet, and there’s a big difference between the two. Insolvency is when you can’t pay your bills when they’re due. When you can’t pay your bills and you can’t borrow the money to cover them, then you are bankrupt.
... Not only has the financial press ignored the consolidated financial statements, but most members of Congress and members of the general public will not read the consolidated financial statements. Documents like the consolidated financial statements are not the kind of thing you want to read before driving. If that’s not bad enough, most people cannot relate to the trillion-dollar numbers in the financial statements. Therefore, it is appropriate to translate them into terms that people will understand.
... {So they divided the numbers by 100 million and presented this example:}
That household earns $52,446 and spends $73,378 — running a $20,932 annual deficit. Its total liabilities and unfunded promises amount to $1,361,788 against just $60,554 in assets, leaving it $1.3 million in the hole. Uncle Sam, by any accounting standard, is insolvent.
{The authors want a “Fiscal Commission Act,” proposed in Congress, which would}
force a public reckoning with the facts, the trade-offs, and the hard choices that restoring fiscal health requires.
{That sounds reasonable. Their other suggestion — an Art. V convention to write a balanced budget amendment — is just nuts...}
... Congress has clearly lost control of the nation’s finances. America is facing a fiscal catastrophe. The reckoning, long deferred, is becoming impossible to ignore.
{... Not just Congress, though its dereliction of duty ranks high on the list of causes. The Trump administration has been (a) cutting taxes for all those those who can afford them and also (b) cutting projects (illegally) that it doesn’t like or that don’t benefit them while (c) spending money like a drunken sailor on personal pet projects, projects they’ve been “urged” to support, and of course war. Nothing like a good rousing war to get the blood going, erections rising, and money flowing." ..."
PAYWALL: https://fortune.com/2026/03/23/us-government-insolvent-fiscal-crisis-fix/
{Bracketed} comments are from Daily Kos article below.
--------------------------------------------
The United States is Insolvent - Though Only FORTUNE Seems to Have Noticed
Dan K | March 23, 2026
"... Guess what, folks: We’re broke. And the Treasury just admitted it (65 pages in*). The narrative pages of the report don’t say that, of course; they just explain what each section shows and where the data comes from; a relatively quick skim found no analysis ... "
* Financial Statements of the United States Government for the Fiscal Years Ended September 30, 2025, and 2024 (PDF from the Bureau of the Fiscal Service):
https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2025/f...
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2026/3/23/2374526/-The-United-States-is-Insolve...
39margd
3 signals tied to severe market drops are all flashing now
Christine Idzelis | 3/25/2026
"Three factors that have preceded double-digit stock-market declines are all present in 2026.
... During those years, recession, military conflict and unexpected shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy were largely responsible for the steep declines ... Recession was the most frequent culprit ..."
Market Watch via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-signals-tied-to-severe-market-drops-ar...
--------------------------------------------
The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling
Eva Roytburg | March 23, 2026
"As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time. Still, social media posts depicting empty toilet paper abound.
But why would people panic buy goods unrelated to or not affected by the conflict? Panic buying behaves much like a bank run...
... So far, the panic doesn’t appear to have spread far beyond Japan—except, perhaps, to neighboring Australia, where Perth has reported some early signs of stockpiling. As if the hollering from across the water finally reached the next set of ears ...
Fortune via https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/great-toilet-paper-panic-back-192951341.html
Christine Idzelis | 3/25/2026
"Three factors that have preceded double-digit stock-market declines are all present in 2026.
... During those years, recession, military conflict and unexpected shifts in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy were largely responsible for the steep declines ... Recession was the most frequent culprit ..."
Market Watch via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/3-signals-tied-to-severe-market-drops-ar...
--------------------------------------------
The great toilet paper panic is back as Japan starts stockpiling
Eva Roytburg | March 23, 2026
"As the U.S.-Israeli-Iran conflict rattles oil markets, Japanese consumers are stockpiling toilet paper—a product with no connection to the disruptions whatsoever, but that has caused enough problems for the country that the Japanese government has urged citizens to stop buying ahead of time. Still, social media posts depicting empty toilet paper abound.
But why would people panic buy goods unrelated to or not affected by the conflict? Panic buying behaves much like a bank run...
... So far, the panic doesn’t appear to have spread far beyond Japan—except, perhaps, to neighboring Australia, where Perth has reported some early signs of stockpiling. As if the hollering from across the water finally reached the next set of ears ...
Fortune via https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/great-toilet-paper-panic-back-192951341.html
40margd
>39 margd: Same analyst cited in Market Watch article:
A stock market indicator is flashing a big red warning sign
Ian Salisbury | 24 March 2026
Wall Street analysts are bullish on the stock market. It could be a big reason to worry.
Despite the slowing U.S. economy and the war in Iran, stock analysts at investment banks and research firms are more optimistic about the market than at any time in more than a decade ...
Barron's via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/a-stock-market-indicator-is-f...
A stock market indicator is flashing a big red warning sign
Ian Salisbury | 24 March 2026
Wall Street analysts are bullish on the stock market. It could be a big reason to worry.
Despite the slowing U.S. economy and the war in Iran, stock analysts at investment banks and research firms are more optimistic about the market than at any time in more than a decade ...
Barron's via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/a-stock-market-indicator-is-f...
41margd
NY Times {27 March 2026}: With a giant, golden tractor parked in the White House driveway, President Trump cast himself as a champion of the American farmer, promising to bolster small-business loan guarantees for an industry hit hard by his tariffs and rising prices from the war in Iran.
Trump Offers More Aid to Farmers, a Key Support Bloc Hurt by Tariffs and War
{PAYWALL} https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/us/politics/trump-farmers.html
Trump Offers More Aid to Farmers, a Key Support Bloc Hurt by Tariffs and War
{PAYWALL} https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/27/us/politics/trump-farmers.html
42margd
That sound? That would be US automakers, already reeling from tariffs ...
Iran blows hole in US aluminium supply chain with smelter strikes
Tom Daly and Pratima Desai | March 30, 2026
"Summary
- U.S. has 60% reliance on imports for aluminium, USGS data shows
- Gulf nations accounted for 22% of U.S. aluminium imports in 2025
- Attacked smelters each produce more primary aluminium than U.S.
March 30 (Reuters) - With attacks on the two biggest aluminium smelters in the Middle East over the weekend, Iran struck at major suppliers to the United States of a strategic metal the world's biggest economy does not produce nearly enough of domestically
... on Saturday, Emirates Global Aluminium said its roughly 1.5 million metric ton per year Al Taweelah site in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, had sustained significant damage from Iranian attacks. Aluminium Bahrain (ALBH.BH), opens new tab said its 1.6 million ton per year plant was targeted on the same day..."
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-blows-hole-us-aluminium-supply-ch...
Iran blows hole in US aluminium supply chain with smelter strikes
Tom Daly and Pratima Desai | March 30, 2026
"Summary
- U.S. has 60% reliance on imports for aluminium, USGS data shows
- Gulf nations accounted for 22% of U.S. aluminium imports in 2025
- Attacked smelters each produce more primary aluminium than U.S.
March 30 (Reuters) - With attacks on the two biggest aluminium smelters in the Middle East over the weekend, Iran struck at major suppliers to the United States of a strategic metal the world's biggest economy does not produce nearly enough of domestically
... on Saturday, Emirates Global Aluminium said its roughly 1.5 million metric ton per year Al Taweelah site in Abu Dhabi, in the United Arab Emirates, had sustained significant damage from Iranian attacks. Aluminium Bahrain (ALBH.BH), opens new tab said its 1.6 million ton per year plant was targeted on the same day..."
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-blows-hole-us-aluminium-supply-ch...
43margd
Coalition of countries discuss ‘every possible measure’ to pressure Iran into reopening strait of Hormuz
Rowena Mason Whitehall | Thu 2 Apr 2026
"Yvette Cooper {UK foreign secretary} hosts virtual summit of more than 40 countries to consider coordinated action in face of closure of vital shipping lane
... “That’s affecting petrol prices and mortgage rates here in the UK, but also jet fuel across the world, fertiliser to Africa, and also gas to Asia. So countries across the world are being impacted, and that’s why we’re so determined to see every possible diplomatic, economic and coordinated measure to get the strait reopened.”
... World Bank predict(s) that a continued blockage could push 9 million people worldwide into food insecurity “alongside the unsustainable increases that we have seen in oil prices and food prices hitting households and businesses in every corner of the world” ..."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/02/coalition-countries-ships-strait-o...
Rowena Mason Whitehall | Thu 2 Apr 2026
"Yvette Cooper {UK foreign secretary} hosts virtual summit of more than 40 countries to consider coordinated action in face of closure of vital shipping lane
... “That’s affecting petrol prices and mortgage rates here in the UK, but also jet fuel across the world, fertiliser to Africa, and also gas to Asia. So countries across the world are being impacted, and that’s why we’re so determined to see every possible diplomatic, economic and coordinated measure to get the strait reopened.”
... World Bank predict(s) that a continued blockage could push 9 million people worldwide into food insecurity “alongside the unsustainable increases that we have seen in oil prices and food prices hitting households and businesses in every corner of the world” ..."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/apr/02/coalition-countries-ships-strait-o...
44margd
Brent oil spot price for actual cargo soars to $141, highest level since 2008 financial crisis
Spencer Kimball | Apr 2 2026
"The spot price reflects the demand for Brent oil that will be delivered in the next 10 to 30 days.
... The futures price is “almost giving a false sense of security that things are not that stressed,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects ... “You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up,” Sen said. The price for a barrel of diesel in Europe is almost $200 per barrel right now, she said.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned last week that the futures price is not reflecting the scale of the oil supply disruption to the closure of the Strait. Wirth said the market is trading on “scant information” and “perception.” “There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves on oil” ... "
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level...
Spencer Kimball | Apr 2 2026
"The spot price reflects the demand for Brent oil that will be delivered in the next 10 to 30 days.
... The futures price is “almost giving a false sense of security that things are not that stressed,” said Amrita Sen, founder of Energy Aspects ... “You are seeing it but the financial market is almost masking the true tightness that everywhere else is showing up,” Sen said. The price for a barrel of diesel in Europe is almost $200 per barrel right now, she said.
Chevron CEO Mike Wirth warned last week that the futures price is not reflecting the scale of the oil supply disruption to the closure of the Strait. Wirth said the market is trading on “scant information” and “perception.” “There are very real, physical manifestations of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz that are working their way around the world and through the system that I don’t think are fully priced into the futures curves on oil” ... "
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/02/dated-brent-oil-price-actual-cargo-highest-level...
45margd
Alt National Park Service | 3 April 2026
https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService
"Here are the details about Trump’s proposed FY2027 budget, released today:
The $1.5 trillion defense request involves an increase of about $455 billion over fiscal year 2026. It is separate from an emergency $200 billion request already sent to Congress to support the US-Israeli war with Iran.
On the domestic side, the budget seeks to slash nondefense spending by 10% (a $73 billion cut) primarily affecting housing, social services, health care, and other domestic programs. Among the programs slated for elimination are the $4 billion Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program and the $775 million Community Services Block Grant. The proposal also includes a $10 billion mandatory fund to beautify Washington DC.
Here are the agencies taking the biggest hits:
- CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) - ~$707 million cut
- IRS - additional cuts labeled as ending “weaponization of the federal government”
- EPA - Environmental Justice Program eliminated
- HUD - Pathways to Removing Obstacles to Housing eliminated
- Education Dept - Teacher Quality Partnerships eliminated
Additionally, 11 federal programs have been eliminated as “woke,” including the Education Department’s Teacher Quality Partnerships, HUD’s Pathways to Removing Obstacles to Housing, and the EPA’s Environmental Justice Program.
It’s worth noting this is a proposal, not law. Congress must approve it and has historically pushed back on large portions of presidential budget requests. A nonpartisan watchdog also warns the proposal would add $6.9 trillion to the national debt over 10 years once interest costs are factored in."
https://www.facebook.com/AltUSNationalParkService
"Here are the details about Trump’s proposed FY2027 budget, released today:
The $1.5 trillion defense request involves an increase of about $455 billion over fiscal year 2026. It is separate from an emergency $200 billion request already sent to Congress to support the US-Israeli war with Iran.
On the domestic side, the budget seeks to slash nondefense spending by 10% (a $73 billion cut) primarily affecting housing, social services, health care, and other domestic programs. Among the programs slated for elimination are the $4 billion Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program and the $775 million Community Services Block Grant. The proposal also includes a $10 billion mandatory fund to beautify Washington DC.
Here are the agencies taking the biggest hits:
- CISA (Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency) - ~$707 million cut
- IRS - additional cuts labeled as ending “weaponization of the federal government”
- EPA - Environmental Justice Program eliminated
- HUD - Pathways to Removing Obstacles to Housing eliminated
- Education Dept - Teacher Quality Partnerships eliminated
Additionally, 11 federal programs have been eliminated as “woke,” including the Education Department’s Teacher Quality Partnerships, HUD’s Pathways to Removing Obstacles to Housing, and the EPA’s Environmental Justice Program.
It’s worth noting this is a proposal, not law. Congress must approve it and has historically pushed back on large portions of presidential budget requests. A nonpartisan watchdog also warns the proposal would add $6.9 trillion to the national debt over 10 years once interest costs are factored in."
46margd
One Year After “Liberation Day”: Here’s What We Know and What We Don’t
Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson | April 2, 2026
THE KNOWNS
1. The “global” tariffs became riddled with exemptions
2. Tariff-related lobbying exploded
3. The tariffs raised prices
Figure 3. The 2025 tariffs led to an increase in the prices of domestic and imported goods. U.S. retail prices for domestic and imported products, indexed to January 2024.
https://x.com/beatmastermatt/status/2042233417442410720/photo/1
4. Trade policy uncertainty skyrocketed
5. The US tariff system became significantly more complex and opaque
6. Manufacturing jobs did not boom and, in fact, kept declining
7. The US trade deficit did not decline
8. Other countries are deepening trade ties without the United States
9. Tariff-related litigation has surged
10. Foreign investment did not boom
11. Economic growth has slowed, even with AI tailwinds
THE UNKNOWNS
1. Will the government refund the duties it illegally collected?
2. Will foreign countries fulfill their investment pledges?
3. (How) will the president rebuild his tariff wall?
CONCLUSION
Based on the available facts, “Liberation Day” did not herald the era of economic prosperity that the president promised. Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off. There’s still much we don’t know about US tariff policy going forward, but there’s certainly one thing we do: While the “reciprocal tariffs” may be dead, the administration’s protectionism will—barring congressional intervention—unfortunately persist.
https://www.cato.org/blog/one-year-after-liberation-day-heres-what-we-know-what-...
Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson | April 2, 2026
THE KNOWNS
1. The “global” tariffs became riddled with exemptions
2. Tariff-related lobbying exploded
3. The tariffs raised prices
Figure 3. The 2025 tariffs led to an increase in the prices of domestic and imported goods. U.S. retail prices for domestic and imported products, indexed to January 2024.
https://x.com/beatmastermatt/status/2042233417442410720/photo/1
4. Trade policy uncertainty skyrocketed
5. The US tariff system became significantly more complex and opaque
6. Manufacturing jobs did not boom and, in fact, kept declining
7. The US trade deficit did not decline
8. Other countries are deepening trade ties without the United States
9. Tariff-related litigation has surged
10. Foreign investment did not boom
11. Economic growth has slowed, even with AI tailwinds
THE UNKNOWNS
1. Will the government refund the duties it illegally collected?
2. Will foreign countries fulfill their investment pledges?
3. (How) will the president rebuild his tariff wall?
CONCLUSION
Based on the available facts, “Liberation Day” did not herald the era of economic prosperity that the president promised. Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off. There’s still much we don’t know about US tariff policy going forward, but there’s certainly one thing we do: While the “reciprocal tariffs” may be dead, the administration’s protectionism will—barring congressional intervention—unfortunately persist.
https://www.cato.org/blog/one-year-after-liberation-day-heres-what-we-know-what-...
47margd
One Year After “Liberation Day”: Here’s What We Know and What We Don’t
Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson | April 2, 2026
THE KNOWNS
1. The “global” tariffs became riddled with exemptions
2. Tariff-related lobbying exploded
3. The tariffs raised prices
Figure 3. The 2025 tariffs led to an increase in the prices of domestic and imported goods. U.S. retail prices for domestic and imported products, indexed to January 2024.
https://x.com/beatmastermatt/status/2042233417442410720/photo/1
4. Trade policy uncertainty skyrocketed
5. The US tariff system became significantly more complex and opaque
6. Manufacturing jobs did not boom and, in fact, kept declining
7. The US trade deficit did not decline
8. Other countries are deepening trade ties without the United States
9. Tariff-related litigation has surged
10. Foreign investment did not boom
11. Economic growth has slowed, even with AI tailwinds
THE UNKNOWNS
1. Will the government refund the duties it illegally collected?
2. Will foreign countries fulfill their investment pledges?
3. (How) will the president rebuild his tariff wall?
CONCLUSION
Based on the available facts, “Liberation Day” did not herald the era of economic prosperity that the president promised. Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off. There’s still much we don’t know about US tariff policy going forward, but there’s certainly one thing we do: While the “reciprocal tariffs” may be dead, the administration’s protectionism will—barring congressional intervention—unfortunately persist.
https://www.cato.org/blog/one-year-after-liberation-day-heres-what-we-know-what-...
Scott Lincicome, Alfredo Carrillo Obregon, and Chad Smitson | April 2, 2026
THE KNOWNS
1. The “global” tariffs became riddled with exemptions
2. Tariff-related lobbying exploded
3. The tariffs raised prices
Figure 3. The 2025 tariffs led to an increase in the prices of domestic and imported goods. U.S. retail prices for domestic and imported products, indexed to January 2024.
https://x.com/beatmastermatt/status/2042233417442410720/photo/1
4. Trade policy uncertainty skyrocketed
5. The US tariff system became significantly more complex and opaque
6. Manufacturing jobs did not boom and, in fact, kept declining
7. The US trade deficit did not decline
8. Other countries are deepening trade ties without the United States
9. Tariff-related litigation has surged
10. Foreign investment did not boom
11. Economic growth has slowed, even with AI tailwinds
THE UNKNOWNS
1. Will the government refund the duties it illegally collected?
2. Will foreign countries fulfill their investment pledges?
3. (How) will the president rebuild his tariff wall?
CONCLUSION
Based on the available facts, “Liberation Day” did not herald the era of economic prosperity that the president promised. Taxes, prices, uncertainty, and bureaucracy climbed, while US manufacturing, FDI, and the trade balance stood still. Exemptions proliferated; lobbying skyrocketed; and most Americans were worse off. There’s still much we don’t know about US tariff policy going forward, but there’s certainly one thing we do: While the “reciprocal tariffs” may be dead, the administration’s protectionism will—barring congressional intervention—unfortunately persist.
https://www.cato.org/blog/one-year-after-liberation-day-heres-what-we-know-what-...
48margd
William Watson: Armageddon postponed, now back to dairy quotas and CUSMA {known in US as USMCA}
Opinion by William Watson | April 9, 2026
"... Canada-United States trade, which is up for renegotiation just weeks from now.
... The future shape of the North American CAR INDUSTRY is one key issue in the CUSMA negotiations. Since 1965’s Auto Pact, parts and cars have crossed the border tariff-free so long as they satisfy content requirements. The Trump administration seems likely to want to reimpose permanent tariffs. A new study by three MIT economists* suggests doing so would impose net costs on the U.S. economy, though mainly if the tariffs extend to parts.
... The MIT researchers found that a car-only tariff increases the market share of U.S. producers by a little under six per cent, which raises their profit by about US$1 billion — essentially nothing in a US$31-trillion economy. Consumers are worse off by US$14 billion but that’s offset by tariff revenue of the same amount.
... On the other hand, if the tariff is also imposed on imported parts, the cost to consumers doubles, though so do tariff revenues, while the US$1-billion gain to producers turns into a US$2.6-billion loss. Strangely, the loss falls more heavily on Chevrolet, GMC and Ford than on Honda and Toyota. Foreign content varies between 25 and 90 per cent across vehicles and it turns out these big U.S. firms rely on it more and so are hit harder. Who knew?
... A recent decision by the Quebec court of appeal on taxi licences may give Ottawa a little extra leverage in getting DAIRY farmers to go along with a reduction of tariffs on their U.S. competition ... the court of appeal has sided with the government: governments have to be free to withdraw privileges previously granted even if doing so imposes an economic loss on beneficiaries of the status quo. {Needless to say, the taxi drivers are considering an appeal to the Supreme Court}
Dairy farmers holding quota that allows them to profit from the supply restrictions imposed by marketing boards are in exactly the same position as the taxi drivers were. It’s hard to imagine how the boards’ stranglehold on the industry will be eliminated without compensation. But the fact the government may not be legally bound to pay compensation probably increases its leverage over them at least slightly ..."
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/william-watson-armageddon-postponed-n...
--------------------------------------------------------
* Luke Heeney, Christopher R. Knittel & Jasdeep Mandia et al. 2026. Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 35023, Issue Date April 2026.
DOI 10.3386/w35023 https://www.nber.org/papers/w35023
________________________________________
margd: Dairy's leverage with Liberals is also because of dairy-farmers' concentration in Quebec. Moreover, in current environment, Canadian shoppers are not likely to stop looking for little blue cow on dairy packaging that signals Canadian origin. One assumes that, depending on how CUSMA negotiations go, Canadian shoppers may choose non-US cars such as Chinese EVs and products of Asian automakers, some of whom have bought up Ontario assembly operations abandoned by GM.
Opinion by William Watson | April 9, 2026
"... Canada-United States trade, which is up for renegotiation just weeks from now.
... The future shape of the North American CAR INDUSTRY is one key issue in the CUSMA negotiations. Since 1965’s Auto Pact, parts and cars have crossed the border tariff-free so long as they satisfy content requirements. The Trump administration seems likely to want to reimpose permanent tariffs. A new study by three MIT economists* suggests doing so would impose net costs on the U.S. economy, though mainly if the tariffs extend to parts.
... The MIT researchers found that a car-only tariff increases the market share of U.S. producers by a little under six per cent, which raises their profit by about US$1 billion — essentially nothing in a US$31-trillion economy. Consumers are worse off by US$14 billion but that’s offset by tariff revenue of the same amount.
... On the other hand, if the tariff is also imposed on imported parts, the cost to consumers doubles, though so do tariff revenues, while the US$1-billion gain to producers turns into a US$2.6-billion loss. Strangely, the loss falls more heavily on Chevrolet, GMC and Ford than on Honda and Toyota. Foreign content varies between 25 and 90 per cent across vehicles and it turns out these big U.S. firms rely on it more and so are hit harder. Who knew?
... A recent decision by the Quebec court of appeal on taxi licences may give Ottawa a little extra leverage in getting DAIRY farmers to go along with a reduction of tariffs on their U.S. competition ... the court of appeal has sided with the government: governments have to be free to withdraw privileges previously granted even if doing so imposes an economic loss on beneficiaries of the status quo. {Needless to say, the taxi drivers are considering an appeal to the Supreme Court}
Dairy farmers holding quota that allows them to profit from the supply restrictions imposed by marketing boards are in exactly the same position as the taxi drivers were. It’s hard to imagine how the boards’ stranglehold on the industry will be eliminated without compensation. But the fact the government may not be legally bound to pay compensation probably increases its leverage over them at least slightly ..."
https://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topstories/william-watson-armageddon-postponed-n...
--------------------------------------------------------
* Luke Heeney, Christopher R. Knittel & Jasdeep Mandia et al. 2026. Tariffs, Global Value Chains, and the Incidence of Protection: Evidence from US Automobiles. National Bureau of Economic Research, Working Paper 35023, Issue Date April 2026.
DOI 10.3386/w35023 https://www.nber.org/papers/w35023
________________________________________
margd: Dairy's leverage with Liberals is also because of dairy-farmers' concentration in Quebec. Moreover, in current environment, Canadian shoppers are not likely to stop looking for little blue cow on dairy packaging that signals Canadian origin. One assumes that, depending on how CUSMA negotiations go, Canadian shoppers may choose non-US cars such as Chinese EVs and products of Asian automakers, some of whom have bought up Ontario assembly operations abandoned by GM.
49margd
Remarkable graph: "Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped sharply since the start of the Iran War. According to Marine Traffic, five ships crossed the strait on April 7." {2026}
{Graph, #ships v dates} https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10225561513903983&set=a.1613530477437
{Data from Marine Traffic, https://www.marinetraffic.com/ Check out map!}
{Graph, #ships v dates} https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=10225561513903983&set=a.1613530477437
{Data from Marine Traffic, https://www.marinetraffic.com/ Check out map!}
50margd
From an industry newsletter, increasing cost for shipping & trucking:
Cost-hit ocean carriers roll out series of rate increases, fuel surcharges
Daily Newswire Journal of Commerce by S and P Global | April 13, 2026
"Most of the increases represent a significant premium on current pricing levels, but it remains to be seen how sticky the aspirational rates will be with cargo markets also under pressure from high energy prices..."
{30-day free trial} https://www.joc.com/article/cost-hit-ocean-carriers-roll-out-series-of-rate-incr...
--------------------------------------------
New Regulations, Rising Fuel Costs and What They Mean for Truckload Shippers: An Inland26 Webcast
Tuesday, April 28th at 2:00pm EDT
"The tail end of 2025 provided a sneak preview for what was a hopeful first quarter for truckload carriers, and a potential concern for truckload shippers. Capacity contracted due to regulatory crackdowns {on trucks and foreign drivers} and rising fuel costs, which led to a firming of spot rates. Now the attention turns to whether contract rates will be impacted, or rather the extent to which they will. CH Robinson, North America's biggest freight broker, in late March raised its guidance for rate increases from 10% to 12%. Truckload rate providers are warning shippers to brace themselves for rate increases. But it’s still unclear just how steep those increases will be, and the second quarter will likely be a good guide in answering that critical question. This one-hour webcast, a primer of sorts to the Inland Distribution Conference in September, will examine the fundamentals of a market that has very much turned, with input from a panel of truckload experts.
REGISTER https://events.spglobal.com/hub/events/df2268a0-3db4-48fd-8e6b-0e1aeaed3199/land... "
------------------------------------------
El Niño forecast suggests risk of low water levels along Panama Canal*
Lars Jensen | Apr 10, 2026
"As if the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea haven’t caused enough concern for commercial shipping, Lars Jensen warns of the potential for weather-related disruptions once again at the canal by year-end... {In addition to} the geopolitical perspective where Panama is presently squeezed between US and Chinese interests. That is an uncertainty unto itself ..."
{30-day free trial} https://www.joc.com/article/el-nino-forecast-suggests-risk-of-low-water-levels-a...
* margd: Panama Canal is fed by inland fresh water. Ships reduce cargo where water levels are low.
Cost-hit ocean carriers roll out series of rate increases, fuel surcharges
Daily Newswire Journal of Commerce by S and P Global | April 13, 2026
"Most of the increases represent a significant premium on current pricing levels, but it remains to be seen how sticky the aspirational rates will be with cargo markets also under pressure from high energy prices..."
{30-day free trial} https://www.joc.com/article/cost-hit-ocean-carriers-roll-out-series-of-rate-incr...
--------------------------------------------
New Regulations, Rising Fuel Costs and What They Mean for Truckload Shippers: An Inland26 Webcast
Tuesday, April 28th at 2:00pm EDT
"The tail end of 2025 provided a sneak preview for what was a hopeful first quarter for truckload carriers, and a potential concern for truckload shippers. Capacity contracted due to regulatory crackdowns {on trucks and foreign drivers} and rising fuel costs, which led to a firming of spot rates. Now the attention turns to whether contract rates will be impacted, or rather the extent to which they will. CH Robinson, North America's biggest freight broker, in late March raised its guidance for rate increases from 10% to 12%. Truckload rate providers are warning shippers to brace themselves for rate increases. But it’s still unclear just how steep those increases will be, and the second quarter will likely be a good guide in answering that critical question. This one-hour webcast, a primer of sorts to the Inland Distribution Conference in September, will examine the fundamentals of a market that has very much turned, with input from a panel of truckload experts.
REGISTER https://events.spglobal.com/hub/events/df2268a0-3db4-48fd-8e6b-0e1aeaed3199/land... "
------------------------------------------
El Niño forecast suggests risk of low water levels along Panama Canal*
Lars Jensen | Apr 10, 2026
"As if the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea haven’t caused enough concern for commercial shipping, Lars Jensen warns of the potential for weather-related disruptions once again at the canal by year-end... {In addition to} the geopolitical perspective where Panama is presently squeezed between US and Chinese interests. That is an uncertainty unto itself ..."
{30-day free trial} https://www.joc.com/article/el-nino-forecast-suggests-risk-of-low-water-levels-a...
* margd: Panama Canal is fed by inland fresh water. Ships reduce cargo where water levels are low.
51margd
Wimar.X @DefiWimar | 5:15 AM · Apr 11, 2026:
"🚨 BREAKING
CHINA HAS DUMPED $623 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS.
NOW IT HOLDS ONLY $694 BILLION - THE LOWEST SINCE 2008.
MEANWHILE, CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES HAVE PUMPED FOR 17 MONTHS IN A ROW, TO $343 BILLION - A NEW HIGH.
THEY'RE EXITING THE SYSTEM...
{Graph, China's US Treasuries, gold , 2000-2025} https://x.com/DefiWimar/status/2042894214128685518 "
"🚨 BREAKING
CHINA HAS DUMPED $623 BILLION IN U.S. TREASURY HOLDINGS.
NOW IT HOLDS ONLY $694 BILLION - THE LOWEST SINCE 2008.
MEANWHILE, CHINA'S GOLD RESERVES HAVE PUMPED FOR 17 MONTHS IN A ROW, TO $343 BILLION - A NEW HIGH.
THEY'RE EXITING THE SYSTEM...
{Graph, China's US Treasuries, gold , 2000-2025} https://x.com/DefiWimar/status/2042894214128685518 "
52margd
"In just six weeks, the Iran War has shattered a system of global trade that has enriched people and nations for more than a century: the freedom to sail the open seas.
The Strait of Hormuz long functioned as an artery for the world’s maritime economy. But that 30-mile-wide waterway is now a monument to a new global disorder."
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/free-seas-iran-strait-hormuz-toll-3404b2e1
via Geoff Bennett {PBS news} @GeoffRBennett | 11:02 PM · Apr 11, 2026
https://x.com/GeoffRBennett/status/2043162850773102878
The Strait of Hormuz long functioned as an artery for the world’s maritime economy. But that 30-mile-wide waterway is now a monument to a new global disorder."
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/free-seas-iran-strait-hormuz-toll-3404b2e1
via Geoff Bennett {PBS news} @GeoffRBennett | 11:02 PM · Apr 11, 2026
https://x.com/GeoffRBennett/status/2043162850773102878
53margd
IMF says Middle East war to deepen economic divide in Latin America, Caribbean
Rodrigo Campos | Apr 17, 2026
... tourism-dependent Caribbean and energy-importing South America seen as most vulnerable to high energy cost ...
{PAYWALL} https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/imf-says-middle-east-war-deepen-economic-...
Rodrigo Campos | Apr 17, 2026
... tourism-dependent Caribbean and energy-importing South America seen as most vulnerable to high energy cost ...
{PAYWALL} https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/imf-says-middle-east-war-deepen-economic-...
56margd
Helium reserves on earth are finite. When released, the gas leaves earth's atmosphere.
The Helium Crisis That Won’t Go Away
Freddy Brewster | Apr 20, 2026
"... the war in Iran has cut off a significant portion of global helium resources, leading to a 50 percent price increase and warnings of a debilitating supply shortage ...
The crisis could have been avoided — if the United States had kept its Federal Helium Reserve, a national stockpile that accounted for nearly 40 percent of the world’s supply in 2013 and helped stabilize supply and prices.
For nearly 30 years, scientists, medical experts, and researchers urged lawmakers to preserve the national stockpile. Lawmakers instead spent that time selling it off bit by bit.
The privatization effort started in 1996 with the backing of President Bill Clinton, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), and the archconservative group that would go on to write Project 2025 ... "
https://www.levernews.com/the-helium-crisis-that-wont-go-away
The Helium Crisis That Won’t Go Away
Freddy Brewster | Apr 20, 2026
"... the war in Iran has cut off a significant portion of global helium resources, leading to a 50 percent price increase and warnings of a debilitating supply shortage ...
The crisis could have been avoided — if the United States had kept its Federal Helium Reserve, a national stockpile that accounted for nearly 40 percent of the world’s supply in 2013 and helped stabilize supply and prices.
For nearly 30 years, scientists, medical experts, and researchers urged lawmakers to preserve the national stockpile. Lawmakers instead spent that time selling it off bit by bit.
The privatization effort started in 1996 with the backing of President Bill Clinton, House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), and the archconservative group that would go on to write Project 2025 ... "
https://www.levernews.com/the-helium-crisis-that-wont-go-away
57margd
Corn’s Margin Crisis Deepens as Fertilizer Shock Collides With Planting Season
Aimee Nielson - Seed World U.S. Editor | March 18, 2026
"... Nitrogen Still Sets the Ceiling
While some nutrients offer flexibility in application timing or rate, nitrogen remains the limiting factor in corn production, and that reality is shaping how farmers think about what can and cannot be cut this season.
“Phosphorus and potash tend to be very stable in the soil, while nitrogen will move through,” {NCGA (National Corn Growers Association) first vice president Matt Frostic} says
“It’s important to remember that our growers have also already been facing tough economic times well before this conflict began,” NCGA vice president of public policy Ashley McNitt says. “The nation’s corn growers are in their fourth year of negative returns attributed to low corn prices and high input costs.”
“The forecast of $917 an acre to plant corn… that’s about $150 loss per acre, even before all of this,” she says. ... "
https://www.seedworld.com/us/2026/03/18/corns-margin-crisis-deepens-as-fertilize...
Aimee Nielson - Seed World U.S. Editor | March 18, 2026
"... Nitrogen Still Sets the Ceiling
While some nutrients offer flexibility in application timing or rate, nitrogen remains the limiting factor in corn production, and that reality is shaping how farmers think about what can and cannot be cut this season.
“Phosphorus and potash tend to be very stable in the soil, while nitrogen will move through,” {NCGA (National Corn Growers Association) first vice president Matt Frostic} says
“It’s important to remember that our growers have also already been facing tough economic times well before this conflict began,” NCGA vice president of public policy Ashley McNitt says. “The nation’s corn growers are in their fourth year of negative returns attributed to low corn prices and high input costs.”
“The forecast of $917 an acre to plant corn… that’s about $150 loss per acre, even before all of this,” she says. ... "
https://www.seedworld.com/us/2026/03/18/corns-margin-crisis-deepens-as-fertilize...
58margd
33 CHEAP Things to Buy BEFORE High Fuel Prices CRASH Supply Chains! (31:08)
Apr 22, 2026
When fuel and freight costs spike, the prices of everyday goods that rely heavily on long-distance transport rise sharply and often become temporarily unavailable, making it wise to stockpile affordable, high-transport-cost items now before shortages and price surges hit your home.
References:
1. University of Virginia, Darden School of Business — Soaring gas prices and disrupted supply chains will ripple out to increase costs in every store and sector of the economy (March 27, 2026): https://news.darden.virginia.edu/2026/03/27/soaring-gas-prices-and-disrupted-sup...
2. Transport Works — Fuel Costs and Freight Rates 2026: What's Driving Prices (Jan. 9, 2026): https://www.transportworks.com/post/how-fuel-costs-will-mess-with-supply-chains-...
3. Credendo — Global supply chains in chaos after one month of conflict in the Middle East (Apr. 2026): https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/global-supply-chains-chaos-after-one-month...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY80tZeju0o
Apr 22, 2026
When fuel and freight costs spike, the prices of everyday goods that rely heavily on long-distance transport rise sharply and often become temporarily unavailable, making it wise to stockpile affordable, high-transport-cost items now before shortages and price surges hit your home.
References:
1. University of Virginia, Darden School of Business — Soaring gas prices and disrupted supply chains will ripple out to increase costs in every store and sector of the economy (March 27, 2026): https://news.darden.virginia.edu/2026/03/27/soaring-gas-prices-and-disrupted-sup...
2. Transport Works — Fuel Costs and Freight Rates 2026: What's Driving Prices (Jan. 9, 2026): https://www.transportworks.com/post/how-fuel-costs-will-mess-with-supply-chains-...
3. Credendo — Global supply chains in chaos after one month of conflict in the Middle East (Apr. 2026): https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/global-supply-chains-chaos-after-one-month...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY80tZeju0o
59margd
Everyday items that may soon increase in cost due to Iran War. Not just oil... :(
33 CHEAP Things to Buy BEFORE High Fuel Prices CRASH Supply Chains! (31:08)
Apr 22, 2026
When fuel and freight costs spike, the prices of everyday goods that rely heavily on long-distance transport rise sharply and often become temporarily unavailable, making it wise to stockpile affordable, high-transport-cost items now before shortages and price surges hit your home.
References:
1. University of Virginia, Darden School of Business — Soaring gas prices and disrupted supply chains will ripple out to increase costs in every store and sector of the economy (March 27, 2026): https://news.darden.virginia.edu/2026/03/27/soaring-gas-prices-and-disrupted-sup...
2. Transport Works — Fuel Costs and Freight Rates 2026: What's Driving Prices (Jan. 9, 2026): https://www.transportworks.com/post/how-fuel-costs-will-mess-with-supply-chains-...
3. Credendo — Global supply chains in chaos after one month of conflict in the Middle East (Apr. 2026): https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/global-supply-chains-chaos-after-one-month...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY80tZeju0o
33 CHEAP Things to Buy BEFORE High Fuel Prices CRASH Supply Chains! (31:08)
Apr 22, 2026
When fuel and freight costs spike, the prices of everyday goods that rely heavily on long-distance transport rise sharply and often become temporarily unavailable, making it wise to stockpile affordable, high-transport-cost items now before shortages and price surges hit your home.
References:
1. University of Virginia, Darden School of Business — Soaring gas prices and disrupted supply chains will ripple out to increase costs in every store and sector of the economy (March 27, 2026): https://news.darden.virginia.edu/2026/03/27/soaring-gas-prices-and-disrupted-sup...
2. Transport Works — Fuel Costs and Freight Rates 2026: What's Driving Prices (Jan. 9, 2026): https://www.transportworks.com/post/how-fuel-costs-will-mess-with-supply-chains-...
3. Credendo — Global supply chains in chaos after one month of conflict in the Middle East (Apr. 2026): https://credendo.com/en/knowledge-hub/global-supply-chains-chaos-after-one-month...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UY80tZeju0o
60margd
We’re on the brink of a global recession, but it’s not Iran we need to worry about
Liam Halligann | 26 April 2026
... Along with a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, this dual Iran/US blockade also prevents a third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser feedstocks from reaching global markets.
That points to lower crop yield this summer – a serious energy-price spike with a food-price spike too.
A third of global helium supplies pass through the Strait, vital when making semiconductors. Those chips, comparable in strategic terms to oil, enable trillions of dollars of downstream economic activity – from manufacturing to energy structures, wireless and computer data storage and defence.
On top of all that, multiple sovereign bond crises are brewing across the G7, as Western nations struggle with high fiscal deficits, tightening demographics and big government, while failing to constrain runaway welfare spending.
Large lenders are pushing up debt service costs, piling further pressure on already cash-strapped governments. The scope for systemic meltdown, sparked by highly leveraged bond investors, cannot be ignored.
... AI-investment frenzy is setting up equity markets for a profoundly damaging collapse ... AI-related stocks are now trading at increasingly ridiculous valuations. And much of the huge investments going in to data centres and other tech-related infrastructure are financed by debt – debt which, in turn, rests on extremely weak foundations ...
(Telegraph via) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/we-re-on-the-brink-of-a-global-recession-b...
Liam Halligann | 26 April 2026
... Along with a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies, this dual Iran/US blockade also prevents a third of the world’s seaborne fertiliser feedstocks from reaching global markets.
That points to lower crop yield this summer – a serious energy-price spike with a food-price spike too.
A third of global helium supplies pass through the Strait, vital when making semiconductors. Those chips, comparable in strategic terms to oil, enable trillions of dollars of downstream economic activity – from manufacturing to energy structures, wireless and computer data storage and defence.
On top of all that, multiple sovereign bond crises are brewing across the G7, as Western nations struggle with high fiscal deficits, tightening demographics and big government, while failing to constrain runaway welfare spending.
Large lenders are pushing up debt service costs, piling further pressure on already cash-strapped governments. The scope for systemic meltdown, sparked by highly leveraged bond investors, cannot be ignored.
... AI-investment frenzy is setting up equity markets for a profoundly damaging collapse ... AI-related stocks are now trading at increasingly ridiculous valuations. And much of the huge investments going in to data centres and other tech-related infrastructure are financed by debt – debt which, in turn, rests on extremely weak foundations ...
(Telegraph via) https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/we-re-on-the-brink-of-a-global-recession-b...
61margd
Farmers warn of food price spike as war drives up fuel and fertilizer costs (8:53)
PBS News Hour | Apr 6, 2026
"Geoff Bennett:
... About a third of the world's fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of both elevated food prices and lower crop yields across the globe.
... Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary:
Clearly, this -- I think we're at 36 days for the conflict -- has elevated the issue of fertilizer and how important it is for American farmers and, frankly, for our food supply.
The good news is that about 80 percent of our farmers actually last fall locked in their fertilizer, so, as we're moving into planting season, it's only about 20 to 25 percent of our farmers that didn't lock {fertilizer} in. We are working directly to ensure that we can get them what they need and it won't bankrupt them.
Geoff Bennett:
Now, despite those numbers, farmers we spoke with say they fear these cost increases could put them over the edge ..."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/farmers-warn-of-food-price-spike-as-war-drives...
PBS News Hour | Apr 6, 2026
"Geoff Bennett:
... About a third of the world's fertilizer supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and its effective closure is causing shortages and price spikes for fertilizer during the crucial spring planting season. That has led to fears of both elevated food prices and lower crop yields across the globe.
... Brooke Rollins, Agriculture Secretary:
Clearly, this -- I think we're at 36 days for the conflict -- has elevated the issue of fertilizer and how important it is for American farmers and, frankly, for our food supply.
The good news is that about 80 percent of our farmers actually last fall locked in their fertilizer, so, as we're moving into planting season, it's only about 20 to 25 percent of our farmers that didn't lock {fertilizer} in. We are working directly to ensure that we can get them what they need and it won't bankrupt them.
Geoff Bennett:
Now, despite those numbers, farmers we spoke with say they fear these cost increases could put them over the edge ..."
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/farmers-warn-of-food-price-spike-as-war-drives...
62margd
Fed researchers see a 'full pass-through' of Trump's tariff costs to consumers, adding almost a full percentage point to inflation
Tristan Bove • May 12, 2026
"... Tariffs are now subject to a “full pass-through” from collection-driven prices to consumer-facing inflation, according to a study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, published last week. That means companies are no longer covering the tariff cost by paying duties at the border, but have now fully transferred those costs to the public in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
The authors found tariffs have already had a measurable impact on inflation, specifically core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Year-over-year core inflation hit 3.2% in March, the highest level recorded since 2023, a surge largely attributable to tariff costs, according to the Fed researchers. They estimated core inflation would have been 0.80 percentage points lower in March absent tariffs, coming in at a much more manageable 2.3% ..."
Fortune via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-researchers-see-a-full-pass-through-...
Tristan Bove • May 12, 2026
"... Tariffs are now subject to a “full pass-through” from collection-driven prices to consumer-facing inflation, according to a study by researchers at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, published last week. That means companies are no longer covering the tariff cost by paying duties at the border, but have now fully transferred those costs to the public in the form of higher prices for goods and services.
The authors found tariffs have already had a measurable impact on inflation, specifically core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Year-over-year core inflation hit 3.2% in March, the highest level recorded since 2023, a surge largely attributable to tariff costs, according to the Fed researchers. They estimated core inflation would have been 0.80 percentage points lower in March absent tariffs, coming in at a much more manageable 2.3% ..."
Fortune via https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/fed-researchers-see-a-full-pass-through-...
64margd
"The National Retail Federation on Monday {June 8, 2026} upgraded its previous forecast for June imports, but lowered expectations for imports landing through the rest of the summer and into early fall."
- Daily Newswire, Journal of Commerce, S&P {Standard & Poor's} Global
https://www.joc.com/
- Daily Newswire, Journal of Commerce, S&P {Standard & Poor's} Global
https://www.joc.com/
65margd
Not to mention cost of jet fuel...
(Sounds like another reason for Canada to turn to Saab and Bombardier.)
Global air freight capacity shortages to put brakes on demand growth
S&P's Journal of Commerce | Jun 11, 2026
Air cargo’s growth trajectory over the next decade could be constrained by a lack of capacity as production delays at Boeing and Airbus keep an ageing fleet in the sky and limit the availability of passenger planes for conversion into freighters, industry executives say.
Air cargo demand is projected to expand between 3.5% and 5% a year over the next decade, outstripping the supply of capacity that is forecast to grow by just 1% a year.
“Demand is going to be such that the continuing wide-body freighter capacity constraints, which we think will continue for at least the next decade ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/global-air-freight-capacity-shortages-to-put-brakes-...
(Sounds like another reason for Canada to turn to Saab and Bombardier.)
Global air freight capacity shortages to put brakes on demand growth
S&P's Journal of Commerce | Jun 11, 2026
Air cargo’s growth trajectory over the next decade could be constrained by a lack of capacity as production delays at Boeing and Airbus keep an ageing fleet in the sky and limit the availability of passenger planes for conversion into freighters, industry executives say.
Air cargo demand is projected to expand between 3.5% and 5% a year over the next decade, outstripping the supply of capacity that is forecast to grow by just 1% a year.
“Demand is going to be such that the continuing wide-body freighter capacity constraints, which we think will continue for at least the next decade ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/global-air-freight-capacity-shortages-to-put-brakes-...
66margd
Asia-Europe ocean shippers face huge July 1 rate increases
Greg Knowler | June 12, 2026
"Ocean carriers on the Asia-Europe trade have announced substantial spot rate increases and peak season surcharges from July 1, the same day contracted cargo will be hit by a significant quarterly bunker fuel adjustment.
With a strong and early start to peak season keeping ships full on North Europe and Mediterranean trade lanes, carriers encouraged by the stickiness of June 1 rate increases are capitalizing on the robust demand ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/asia-europe-ocean-shippers-face-huge-july-1-rate-inc...
Greg Knowler | June 12, 2026
"Ocean carriers on the Asia-Europe trade have announced substantial spot rate increases and peak season surcharges from July 1, the same day contracted cargo will be hit by a significant quarterly bunker fuel adjustment.
With a strong and early start to peak season keeping ships full on North Europe and Mediterranean trade lanes, carriers encouraged by the stickiness of June 1 rate increases are capitalizing on the robust demand ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/asia-europe-ocean-shippers-face-huge-july-1-rate-inc...
67margd
‘Afraid to get my next bill’: Americans brace for higher costs to cool their homes this summer
Tami Luhby | June 13, 2026
"... Electricity bills are expected to jump an average of 10.5%, to $792, nationwide for June through September, according to the latest National Energy Assistance Directors Association projection. The outlook takes into account both higher electricity prices and greater air conditioning usage amid forecasts for above-average temperatures for much of the nation.
The increase adds to the financial squeeze that many Americans are feeling as annual inflation in May topped 4% for the first time in three years, pushed up by the surge in fuel and other costs in the wake of the Iran war. As of April, wages are no longer exceeding inflation ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/13/economy/summer-air-conditioning-costs
Tami Luhby | June 13, 2026
"... Electricity bills are expected to jump an average of 10.5%, to $792, nationwide for June through September, according to the latest National Energy Assistance Directors Association projection. The outlook takes into account both higher electricity prices and greater air conditioning usage amid forecasts for above-average temperatures for much of the nation.
The increase adds to the financial squeeze that many Americans are feeling as annual inflation in May topped 4% for the first time in three years, pushed up by the surge in fuel and other costs in the wake of the Iran war. As of April, wages are no longer exceeding inflation ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/13/economy/summer-air-conditioning-costs
68margd
UP imposes peak season surcharge on low-volume shippers
S&P The Commerce Journal | June 15, 2026
"It’s been five years since Union Pacific instituted a surcharge this early in the year, a sign that the railroad expects shippers to continue to shift freight off the highway amid higher trucking and fuel costs."
- Newswire via e-mail
___________________________________
"The Union Pacific Railroad Company is an American Class I freight-hauling railroad that operates 8,300 locomotives over 32,200 miles (51,800 km) routes in 23 U.S. states west of Chicago and New Orleans. Union Pacific is the second-largest railroad in the United States after BNSF {principal operating subsidiary of parent company Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC.}." (Wikipedia)
S&P The Commerce Journal | June 15, 2026
"It’s been five years since Union Pacific instituted a surcharge this early in the year, a sign that the railroad expects shippers to continue to shift freight off the highway amid higher trucking and fuel costs."
- Newswire via e-mail
___________________________________
"The Union Pacific Railroad Company is an American Class I freight-hauling railroad that operates 8,300 locomotives over 32,200 miles (51,800 km) routes in 23 U.S. states west of Chicago and New Orleans. Union Pacific is the second-largest railroad in the United States after BNSF {principal operating subsidiary of parent company Burlington Northern Santa Fe, LLC.}." (Wikipedia)
69margd
US emergency oil stockpile tumbles to lowest since the Reagan administration
Matt Egan | June 15, 2026
"The amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunged last week to the lowest level since 1983 as the Trump administration continues to deploy emergency oil to minimize the damage from the war with Iran.
According to federal data released Monday, US officials released another 8.9 million barrels from the SPR last week alone.
That leaves the US emergency oil reserve with 340.3 million barrels of crude, taking out the prior low set in July 2023 under President Joe Biden after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The last time the SPR had less oil than today was July 1983, when the Reagan administration was filling the reserve for the first time and when the United States had a smaller economy.
... “If we were to get a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that shuts production down for several weeks, that buffer would no longer be there,” {Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates} said. ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/15/business/spr-lowest-since-1983
Matt Egan | June 15, 2026
"The amount of oil in the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve plunged last week to the lowest level since 1983 as the Trump administration continues to deploy emergency oil to minimize the damage from the war with Iran.
According to federal data released Monday, US officials released another 8.9 million barrels from the SPR last week alone.
That leaves the US emergency oil reserve with 340.3 million barrels of crude, taking out the prior low set in July 2023 under President Joe Biden after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The last time the SPR had less oil than today was July 1983, when the Reagan administration was filling the reserve for the first time and when the United States had a smaller economy.
... “If we were to get a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico that shuts production down for several weeks, that buffer would no longer be there,” {Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates} said. ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/06/15/business/spr-lowest-since-1983
70margd
The Cato Institute Handbook on Affordability
Why Everything Feels So Expensive
The Cato Institute Handbook on Affordability explains what caused today’s cost-of-living squeeze and how long-standing government policies in housing, energy, health care, transportation, childcare, food, and college costs make things worse. Prices are up. We’ve all felt it. But not every high price has the same cause. This handbook separates economy-wide inflation from barriers to supply and competition—and provides practical policy solutions that could make your life more affordable.
Written by Cato economists and policy experts, this handbook shows how government policy barriers keep core household expenses inflated...
https://www.cato.org/lowercosts
Why Everything Feels So Expensive
The Cato Institute Handbook on Affordability explains what caused today’s cost-of-living squeeze and how long-standing government policies in housing, energy, health care, transportation, childcare, food, and college costs make things worse. Prices are up. We’ve all felt it. But not every high price has the same cause. This handbook separates economy-wide inflation from barriers to supply and competition—and provides practical policy solutions that could make your life more affordable.
Written by Cato economists and policy experts, this handbook shows how government policy barriers keep core household expenses inflated...
https://www.cato.org/lowercosts
71margd
I imagine insurers will have last word. Who will move through Starts of Hormuz if insurers won't cover?
Shipping wants clarity on US-Iran deal before Hormuz transits can resume
Daily Newswire Journal of Commerce by S and P Global | June 16, 2026
Statements made by the combatants are unclear and did not offer enough information around key aspects of Hormuz transits such as timings and safe routes, industry stakeholders say...
https://www.joc.com/article/shipping-wants-clarity-on-us-iran-deal-before-hormuz...
Shipping wants clarity on US-Iran deal before Hormuz transits can resume
Daily Newswire Journal of Commerce by S and P Global | June 16, 2026
Statements made by the combatants are unclear and did not offer enough information around key aspects of Hormuz transits such as timings and safe routes, industry stakeholders say...
https://www.joc.com/article/shipping-wants-clarity-on-us-iran-deal-before-hormuz...
72margd
Many US retailers bracing for likely doubling of all-in service contract rates
Bill Mongelluzzo and Mark Szakonyi | Jun 16, 2026
"Large and midsize retailers in the US face the possibility of having their newly agreed service contract rates more than double this summer due to increased bunker fuel costs and hefty peak season surcharges (PSSs) that are being added to base rates.
Most retailers secured rates of about $1,700 to $1,900 per FEU from Asia to the West Coast and $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast in the 2026–27 service contracts, most of which took effect on May 1. Those rates were slightly lower than what retailers paid in their 2025–26 contracts ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/many-us-retailers-bracing-for-likely-doubling-of-all...
Bill Mongelluzzo and Mark Szakonyi | Jun 16, 2026
"Large and midsize retailers in the US face the possibility of having their newly agreed service contract rates more than double this summer due to increased bunker fuel costs and hefty peak season surcharges (PSSs) that are being added to base rates.
Most retailers secured rates of about $1,700 to $1,900 per FEU from Asia to the West Coast and $1,000 per FEU higher to the East Coast in the 2026–27 service contracts, most of which took effect on May 1. Those rates were slightly lower than what retailers paid in their 2025–26 contracts ..."
https://www.joc.com/article/many-us-retailers-bracing-for-likely-doubling-of-all...
