Israel #14 (and the Middle East)

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 11:37 PM · Mar 6, 2026:
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2030140881387315216

"MORE | US and Israeli Air Campaign 🧵
(1/3): The combined force is continuing to target Iran’s defense industrial base, especially facilities that support drone development. The IDF targeted the Shokouhiyeh Industrial Zone in Qom Province and the Esteghlal Industrial Zone in Tehran Province, as well as an ammunition production facility and an ammunition depot in Tehran and Fars provinces.

The combined force has continued to destroy Iranian air defense infrastructure in order to maintain air superiority over Iran. The combined force targeted the Shiraz air defense center in Fars Province on March 6.

{maps} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2030140881387315216/photo/1
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2030140881387315216/photo/2
https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2030140881387315216/photo/3

Quote: Critical Threats @criticalthreats · 7h
NEW | Ballistic missile attacks from Iran have declined by roughly 90% since the strikes began ... The US-Israeli combined force has continued strikes targeting Iranian ballistic missile infrastructure in order to degrade Iranian missile capabilities and ultimately destroy the Iranian ballistic missile program...
https://x.com/criticalthreats/status/2030135647457943563

2/ The combined force continued targeting the Iranian internal security infrastructure. The strikes targeted Law Enforcement Command facilities and Basij bases across Iran. These organizations play key roles in suppressing protests and maintaining regime control, and the strikes will likely degrade the regime’s internal security apparatus if the combined force continues to strike these targets at scale throughout the country. The combined force also struck the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Imam Ali Garrison in Sanandaj, Kurdistan Province, on March 5.

Israeli media, citing Israeli security sources, reported that the IDF targeted former Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s Deputy Chief of Staff for Political and Security Affairs, Ali Asghar Hejazi, in an airstrike in Tehran on March 6. It is unclear if Hejazi was killed at the time of this writing.
{aerial photo} https://x.com/i/status/2030140885212520452

3/ The combined force continues to degrade the Iranian Navy. Central Command (CENTCOM) Commander Admiral Brad Cooper said on March 5 that US forces have destroyed over 30 Iranian naval vessels since February 28.

Iran is continuing to attempt to disrupt international shipping within the Persian Gulf as part of a broader effort to impose a cost on the Gulf states. United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) reported on March 6 that unknown projectiles struck a tug boat assisting operations on the cargo ship Safeen Prestige, which Iran previously attacked, in the Strait of Hormuz. The likely Iranian drone strike on the tugboat is the 13th maritime incident in and around the Strait of Hormuz that the UKMTO has reported since the conflict began on February 28.

Iran Update Evening Special Report, March 6, 2026: https://understandingwar.org/research/middle-east/iran-update-evening-special-re...

{map} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2030140888735703159/photo/1 "

"(and the Middle East)"

By which you mean West Asia.

"The Middle East is Once Again West Asia"
Chas Freeman 2023-08-06
Remarks to the Middle East Forum of Falmouth

Ambassador Chas W. Freeman, Jr. (USFS, Ret.)
Visiting Scholar, Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, Brown University
By video 6 August 2023
https://chasfreeman.net/the-middle-east-is-once-again-west-asia/

>2 davidgn: DH was born in Turkey (in a Polish village near Istanbul), so technically Asian. HR wasn't having any of that DEI stuff from HIM. ;) (Few years ago.)

Chas Freeman: Iran’s Strategy in the US-Israel War | Why Pezeshkian Halted Strikes on Gulf States
India & Global Left

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gltqzfUnhFg

Expert summary of the strategic situation, Pezeshkian's deft gambit of spuriously apologizing to the GCC in the furtherance of the overall objective of convincing the GCC to eject all American assets and facilities, the illegality of the Iranian cruiser sunk by an American submarine off Sri Lanka (it was participating in multilateral exercises which the US was also participating in, giving all appearance of perfidy, and it may well have been unarmed), and its portent for geographical expansion, That's the first 12 minutes.

Al Jazeera investigation: Iran girls’ school targeting likely ‘deliberate’
Al Jazeera | March 3, 2026

"Al Jazeera investigation raises questions over deadliest single attack of war on Iran that killed 165 schoolgirls and staff.

... The attackers’ ability to spare newly established adjacent facilities (such as the Martyr Absalan clinic) and their glaring failure to avoid an elementary school operating at full capacity and packed with 170 girls leaves us with two scenarios, both unequivocally condemnatory: Either US and Israeli forces relied, in striking the vicinity of the Asif Brigade, on a very old, outdated intelligence target bank (dating to before 2013), which would constitute grave negligence and reckless disregard for civilian lives; or the strike was carried out deliberately and with prior knowledge to inflict maximum societal shock and undermine popular support for Iran’s military establishment."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/questions-over-minab-girls-school-strike...

-----------------------------------------------------

Margd: Three possibilities, perhaps, neither pleasant to contemplate:
1. Sloppiness.
Not likely, early on, at this level? British and Canadian allies in Afghanistan and Iraq came to be highly alert to positions of US forces due to excessive amounts of friendly fire.
2. High-handedness.
Remember the civilians killed remotely at Iraqi intersection? Also, more recently, US disregard for survivors of boats sunk by air and submarine.
2. Bring-it-on sentiments (Israel and or Christian nationalism).
Who analyzed and applied the satellite data to id targets? Netanyahu no doubt wants US fully in on war against Iran: IDF leadership doesn't appear to have been deterred in Gaza by prospect of innocents being hurt. Also, it's been established that some senior US commanders aren't averse to the kind of mayhem that they believe will usher in second coming.

NPR reported that the girls' school was actually on the grounds of the Naval base which makes it seem likely that the targeting data hadn't been updated.

Yabbut. The clinic next door, also within the historical footprint, but much newer than the school, was not hit. The school was on the outside corner and the clinic was next door, both within the block that was originally military. Both with access only to the outside.

>6 jjwilson61: Joohn Choe has a possible explanation for that:

"What do common AI errors have to do with a mistakenly bombed school in Iran?

Here are the basic facts:

On the morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026, the first day of the US-Israeli military campaign against Iran, missile strikes hit the Shajareh Tayyebeh girls' elementary school in Minab, Hormozgan Province, at approximately 10:45 AM local time. The school had roughly 170–264 students and staff present.

The attack followed a "double-tap" pattern, according to first-responders and the parent of a child killed in the attack: the first strike hit the school building, after which a teacher and principal moved survivors to an adjacent prayer hall; a second strike then destroyed the prayer hall. This resulted in the single deadliest strike of the war: 165 killed and 96 wounded, with most victims being schoolgirls aged 7 to 12.

Investigations by multiple independent outlets, including The New York Times, CBC, and NPR, alongside disclosures from internal United States military personnel, concluded that the U.S. was likely responsible for the strike, in part because of operational geographic divisions that established that the United States was tasked with executing strikes in southern Iran, encompassing the Minab area, while Israeli forces focused on northern targets. United States Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth publicly acknowledged that the Pentagon is actively "investigating" the strike, while maintaining that the United States military does not deliberately target civilian infrastructure.

The Wall Street Journal first reported that US Central Command used Anthropic's Claude AI for "intelligence assessments, target identification and simulating battle scenarios" during the Iran strikes. The Washington Post reported that Palantir's Maven Smart System - which integrates Claude - helped US commanders select approximately 1,000 Iranian targets during the war's first 24 hours, generating precise GPS coordinates, weapons recommendations, and automated legal justifications. CBS News confirmed with two sources that Claude was used over the February 28–March 2 weekend and was "still being used."

The question is now, did an AI error - specifically, by Claude - contribute to the Minab school bombing? and how could such an error have occurred? As a recent data annotator contracting for frontier AI companies, including something called 'adversarial red-team testing', I have insight how this could have occurred.

It's a question of something that we call "loss patterns". A loss pattern in AI red-teaming refers to the specific, identifiable behaviors, input triggers (like prompt injections) or structural vulnerabilities that cause a model to fail, produce unsafe outputs, or reveal confidential data. In AI development, red-team testers identify these patterns to map out how an attacker can manipulate, bypass safety guardrails, or exploit the model's logic.

For instance, one thing that I have discovered with a specific multimodal frontier AI model is that if you start with unsafe information, like the venerable old United States Army Technical Manual 31-210 ("Improvised Munitions Handbook"), you can get it to produce remarkably unsafe results.

For example, you see this, right here? This is basically how to make homemade napalm (only the proportions are missing) and it came out of an AI that has safety limits that explicitly prohibit it from explaining how to do that.

Here's another example where I told a model that there was a catapult on the ramparts in the background of Jacques-Louis David's Intervention of the Sabine Women (1799). There is, of course, no catapult in the background of this painting. In another example, I showed that if you give AI similar-looking celebrities, like Leelee Sobeski and Helen Hunt, it starts to get really confused.

There are five loss patterns relevant to the error in Minab:

1. Temporal label persistence ("stale ground truth") - the most likely single-point failure.

Palantir Maven uses machine learning to fuse together surveillance data from multiple sources, but that data is only as good as its labels. If the school was tagged as "IRGC Navy - Asif Brigade" (as it was used for until some period between 2011 and 2016) and never updated, then that alone could account for the failure mode observed.

2. Context accumulation/"confirmation cascade" - this is the most common failure

In LLMs, this failure mode occurs especially in longer conversations that increase quadratically in computational cost as they get longer (a conversation that is twice as long is four times as 'expensive' for an AI to process). In tactical AIs like Maven, this must occur when multiple inputs are fused.

So, Maven pulls from 179 sources of data according to Rear Adm. Hulin speaking to the Post in 2024. Thus, from Maven's "perspective", what you'd see for the Minab strike might be:

- Source A (historical NGA imagery) shows a compound with military-pattern buildings. Source quality: HIGH.
- Source B (archived SIGINT) shows historical IRGC communications geolocated to that compound. Source quality: HIGH.
- Source C (commercial satellite) shows a walled compound in a pattern consistent with military installations. Source quality: HIGH.
- Source D (open-source intelligence) finds historical references to "Sayyid al-Shuhada military complex" at those coordinates. Source quality: MODERATE.
- Source E (open-source intelligence) finds newspaper and social media references to educational activities at this location. Source quality: LOW-MODERATE.

The first four sources each independently say "military." The LLM layer - here, Claude - is synthesizing these inputs. But the result is, in red-teaming, something called corroborated hallucination: it's multiple sources all confirming a conclusion, but all drawing from the same stale picture of reality.

The model treats four weak signals as one strong signal because they appear independent, and overrides the 'weaker', lower-confidence signal, when in fact they share the same root cause - historical military use that no longer reflects current reality. The result is an 80% confident conclusion that a human analyst would reject that ignores the overriding signal that should call the entire analytical 'stack' into question rather than simply present itself as a 20% chance of being wrong. This is exactly the kind of natural, almost invisibly rapid inference that a human analyst would make that an AI would miss.

3. Sycophancy/operator confirmation bias

In red-teaming literature, "sycophancy" refers to the susceptibility of LLMs to produce outputs that confirm the implicit and explicit expectations embedded in the prompt framing: it will consistently produce what it thinks you want to hear. This has important implications for military targeting usage, especially in inter-agency and inter-ally information sharing.

Thus, in the Maven context, the Israel Defense Forces "in close cooperation with the U.S. Army, worked for thousands of hours to build as valuable and extensive a target bank as possible" according to the Post. If the target bank was built collaboratively between IDF and CENTCOM analysts, and the facility was already on an Israeli target list (Israel had been pre-positioning strike targets in Iran for years) then when Maven/Claude was asked to validate or prioritize that target, the model would be operating in a context where the "expected answer" was already embedded in the query structure.

This is model sycophancy applied to military targeting. The system isn't asked "is this a valid target?" in a neutral frame. It's asked something more like: "Given this set of nominated targets, generate GPS coordinates, legal justifications, expected collateral damage, and weapons package recommendations in accordance with standing targeting doctrine in your system or project prompt."

The framing, to an AI, presupposes validity, so a sycophantic model - and every current LLM, without exception, including Claude, exhibits sycophancy to varying degrees - will optimize for producing a well-structured target package rather than flagging the nomination as potentially invalid.

4. Precision/recall tradeoff under time pressure

The key paradigm shift that AI brings to the U.S. military is the ability to "develop targeting packages at machine speed rather than human speed" according to Paul Scharre, executive vice president at the Center for a New American Security (as quoted in the Post).

That meant, for Iran, approximately 1,000 targets in the first 24 hours, or roughly one target package for every 86 seconds, for an entire day. At that level throughput, the system is necessarily optimized for recall (finding all possible military targets) rather than precision (ensuring every identified target is actually military).

This is a textbook red-team finding: when you optimize for speed and coverage (making sure the AI has something to say) in adversarial conditions, your false positive rate rises. This happens to Maven: it's mistaken vehicles for trees or struggled to differentiate between real and inflatable decoys. If the system struggles to distinguish a truck from a tree, distinguishing an active military base from a decommissioned one converted to a school is a categorically harder problem - especially when the physical infrastructure (walls, building layout, compound structure) hasn't changed.

5. Absence-of-evidence blindness

This is a subtler failure mode from adversarial testing: LLMs are poor at reasoning about what isn't there.

The school compound would show: walled perimeter (still present from military use), large buildings, possibly even residual military-pattern infrastructure. What it would not show is military vehicles, weapons systems, communications equipment, troop movements, or any kind of defensive positions.

But Maven's object recognition layer is trained to identify presence of military objects, not to flag absence of expected military signatures. The LLM synthesis layer (Claude) could theoretically note the absence, but only if prompted to look for disconfirming evidence - this is why so much of the research prompt that I use is essentially forcing the model to consider alternative hypotheses. And nothing I've seen in the public about Maven or Claude in the targeting stack talks at all about any kind of systematic ACH-style challenge function - the kind of structured devil's advocacy that would ask: "Why might this NOT be a valid military target?"

At the end of the day until we get a Congressional investigation or something in there, we don't know whether Claude specifically identified this target.

But the documented failure modes of the system architecture make it analytically plausible that an AI-generated target package contributed to the strike, and the specific characteristics of the Minab compound - a former military facility with unchanged physical infrastructure but completely changed function - represent almost a worst-case adversarial input for a multi-source fusion system with known temporal label persistence problems.

The Pentagon's refusal to answer whether AI was involved in selecting this specific target is itself an intelligence signal. If AI wasn't involved, denying it would cost nothing and would defuse a massive PR crisis.

Silence means one of two things:

1. AI was involved and they know it, or
2. they actually don't know whether it was, because the pipeline is so automated that the provenance of any individual target is difficult to reconstruct

It's legitimately difficult to tell right now which is worse."

If you want to understand this war, where it's at, and where it's going, then as usual for the region, the most informed, informative, and riveting source is Alastair Crooke (guest to Chris Hedges).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YL8rXeNkXsQ

Just past 29 minutes in, discusses impacts (literally) on Israel.

Bottom line at 52 mins.
Trump wants to end the war? He can try.

If you like, there is a 20-minute edit focusing solely on the meat of the missile war, from a person who's toured facilities in person and (attempted to) brief a former U.S. SecDef.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pJRmkd3H4DY

Carl Quintanilla @carlquintanilla | 7:05 AM · Mar 11, 2026:
26+ years @CNBC & @NBCNews / @WSJ alum

Even Goldman is tracking the mixed messages.
{Table} https://x.com/carlquintanilla/status/2031687865428476153/photo/1

Why Trump’s War With Iran Is Costing Nearly $1 Billion A Day—At Least
Alison Durkee | Mar 10, 202

Key Facts
Trump ordered a military operation in Iran that began Feb. 28, with the U.S. military carrying out strikes after more than a month of escalating tensions between Iran and Israel.

Costs are skyrocketing, though it’s unclear by how much: Pentagon officials told Congress the first week of the war cost $6 billion, the Times reports, though The Washington Post reports lawmakers were told just the first two days cost $5.6 billion in munitions alone, and Politico reports legislators are privately hearing the conflict is costing as much as $2 billion per day.

While the full scope of the military’s operation in Iran is still unclear, it’s been sizable: U.S. Central Command, or CENTCOM, said Monday the military had already struck more than 5,000 targets in Iran in the first 10 days since strikes began, and released a list of more than 20 different military assets and weapons systems that have been used so far.

Those assets cost anywhere from $35,000 (the cost of a one-way drone) to millions (Tomahawk missiles) to produce and operate, and the military has lost assets including three F-15 Strike Eagles that were struck down in a friendly fire incident in Kuwait on March 1 and approximately 11 MQ-9 Reapers—with those losses costing more than $600 million combined.

And these figures don’t factor in the daily cost of maintaining troops in the region, with The Washington Post reporting approximately 50,000 troops are already involved in the military operation with more potentially on the way.

Even before the strikes began, transporting troops, ships and aircraft to the region likely cost the military an estimated $630 million, Elaine McCusker, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute think tank and former Pentagon budget official, told The Wall Street Journal on Feb. 28.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2026/03/10/why-trumps-war-with-iran-is...

Col. Wilkerson made Democracy Now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VVvEcpl9Ny4
Ret. Col. Lawrence Wilkerson: Netanyahu Could Turn to Nuclear Bombs If Iran War Escalates

Not the first time he's said this over the months -- or years -- by the way. Those who have been paying attention see no surprises here, but wholly-anticipated cataclysms.

Only 17 minutes, thanks to the discipline of a Democracy Now! segment. Distilled Wilkerson, this. A "Need I say more?" moment.

An evaluation/opinion piece by an Israeli journalist, Alon Mizrahi

https://www.tiktok.com/t/ZThvTgCxU/

>13 2wonderY: I'm amazed that's still on TikTok.

While we're on shorts, a big-picture short from George Monbiot https://www.youtube.com/shorts/eQ54eG4DjX0
to an audience that looks dismayingly surprised.

How ‘Handala’ Became the Face of Iran’s Hacker Counterattacks
Andy Greenberg, Matt Burgess, Lily Hay Newman | Mar 12, 2026

"Since the United States and Israel first unleashed a broad campaign of air strikes across Iran in late February, the cybersecurity industry has warned that the country’s retaliatory measures would include punishing, disruptive cyberattacks against Western targets. Late Tuesday night, the first of those attacks arrived in the US: a devastating breach of the medical technology firm Stryker that has reportedly disabled as many as tens of thousands of computers and paralyzed much of the company’s global operations—all carried out by an Iranian hacker group that calls itself Handala.

“We announce to the world that, in retaliation for the brutal attack on the Minab school and in response to ongoing cyber assaults against the infrastructure of the Axis of Resistance, our major cyber operation has been executed with complete success,” read a statement posted to Handala’s website, referencing both the American Tomahawk missile that killed at least 165 civilians at a girl’s school in Iran and numerous hacking operations that the US and Israel have carried out as part of the two countries’ assaults across Iran. “This is only the beginning of a new era of cyber warfare.” ..."

https://www.wired.com/story/handala-hacker-group-iran-us-israel-war/

As I was saying about Kharg Island....
12 minute briefing from Col. Davis

BREAKING NEWS: US MASSIVE ATTACK on Iran's Kharg Island in the Persian Gulf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wDMOZNEfgRU&pp=ugUHEgVlbi1VUw%3D%3D

Not the oil infrastructure there yet, per Trump. If accurate, that too will be coming.

Easily the most popular video ever uploaded on Chris Hedges' channel, now running well past the million mark.
Prof. Mearsheimer.
And as he acknowledges very early on (recognizing the recent dicta of Naftali Bennett), Turkey is next, if the Israelis get their way.

Why America is Losing the War With Iran (w/ John Mearsheimer) | The Chris Hedges Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl-sSsZnSP8

Trump says US may strike Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub ‘just for fun’ (Guardian)

Donald Trump said on Saturday that the United States may carry out more strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub “just for fun”, saying that while Tehran appears ready to make a deal to end the conflict, “the terms aren’t good enough yet”. He said the US strikes had “totally demolished” most of Kharg Island, telling NBC News that “we may hit it a few more times just for fun”...

Are people in the USA not absolutely horrified that their president is speaking of killing other human beings, and putting the lives of US military service members at risk to do so, "just for fun"? Disgusting.

>18 John5918: Depends on who you ask.

Of course, the logical implication is:
We hit Iranian oil infrastructure on Kharg
They hit the Gulf Arab oil infrastructure of the GCC to retaliate.
Nobody in West Asia produces any significant amount of oil or gas at all for a very, very long time.

Consequences follow. Boy, howdy. "Fun" all around.

>18 John5918: "Are Americans not horrified?"

Methinks thou dost over-generalize and mischaracterize "Americans"-- though I for one am more horrified by attitudes / mistakes that led to bombing of a school (and to the entire war) than I am over trash talk re oil, however distasteful.
---------------------------------------------

Trump’s war rhetoric is coarse. It’s also heard differently, depending on the audience
Kevin Rector | March 15, 2026
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2026-03-15/trump-hegseth-iran-war-rhetori...
----------------------------------------------

Readers speak: War deserves more than casual rhetoric
Kenneth Zagacki* & Richard Cherwitz* | March 15, 2026 at 4:45 AM EDT
https://www.courant.com/2026/03/15/readers-speak-war-deserves-more-than-casual-r...

* Kenneth Zagacki is a professor of communication at North Carolina State University. Richard Cherwitz is Ernest A. Sharpe Centennial Professor Emeritus, Moody College of Communication and founding director, Intellectual Entrepreneurship Consortium, The University of Texas at Austin.
------------------------------------------------

Most Americans oppose Trump's war – with one glaring exception | Opinion
Chris Brennan, USA TODAY | 15 March 2026
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/most-americans-oppose-trump-s-war-with-on...

"{Leigh} McGowan {Politics Girl}: You're saying 46 Americans died, so we should attack this country. Here at home, 68,000 Americans die a year because they don't have health insurance. So, if we're going to spend billions of dollars on something, would it not make more sense to save American lives, to spend it here on health care than bombing another country."

{CNN, 1:11} https://x.com/Acyn/status/2032652951425331281

- Acyn @Acyn11:00 PM · Mar 13, 2026

Finding an Off-ramp in the Middle East War (International Crisis Group)

While the U.S. and Israel have damaged Iran in the Middle East war, Tehran has expanded the conflict. With neither side positioned for a decisive win, the escalation risks are sobering. Diplomacy is crucial to prevent renewed hostilities, but an immediate ceasefire is the priority...

Ending the Trump-Netanyahu War in the Middle East
If not stopped soon, this war could easily turn into a global conflagration, effectively into World War III.
By Jeffrey Sachs & Sybil Fares
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/8bkcp9nkwjr6rrjfsald7pz7nxad9r

We are not optimistic about the likelihood of our plan. The Israeli government is murderous and Trump is delusional about US power. We are perhaps already in the early days of WWIII. Yet because the stakes are so high, it’s worth laying out real solutions even if they are long shots.

Discussed by Sachs with Glenn Diesen: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gmtJZvmOOes
Jeffrey Sachs: Israel Could Use Nuclear Weapons Against Iran

Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, killed in airstrike, Israel says
Patrick Wintour and Lorenzo Tondo | 17 Mar 2026

"... Larijani ... was appointed secretary of the supreme national security council in August after the previous US-Iranian attacks on Iran in June 2025, and on Monday issued a statement to Muslims around the world appealing to them to support Iran in its struggle and challenging Gulf State leaders to explain why they were still allowing US bases in their countries to be used to attack Iran.

Larijani had before the war also played a key diplomatic role alongside Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, in trying to persuade the Gulf states to prevent an attack on Iran. He also visited Muscat, the capital of Oman, to see the mediators in the talks.

... In the handwritten statement issued by Iran state TV, Larijani had praised the bravery of Iranian sailors who were killed when their ship was hit by missiles fired by a US submarine off the Sri Lankan coast.

He had written: “Their memory will always remain in the heart of the Iranian nation and these martyrdoms will strengthen the foundation of the Islamic Republic army for years within the structure of the armed forces.”

Probably more than any other Iranian politician, Larijani combined Iran’s military and political strategy. His death will confirm the prime role the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps plays in Iranian politics. On Monday a former long-time IRGC commander, Mohsen Rezaee, was appointed military adviser to the new supreme leader.

Larijani had been seen as one of the more pragmatic faces of Iran’s establishment – who helped steer nuclear negotiations with the west – but that image later hardened. Hours after US and Israeli strikes killed Khamenei, Larijani delivered a defiant message, warning that Iran would make its enemies “regret” their actions and promising a forceful response.

An Israeli official said a strike on Larijani had originally been planned for the previous night but was postponed at the last minute.

Intelligence received on Monday afternoon indicated that Larijani was due to arrive at one of several apartments he used as a hideout, the official said. He was reportedly there with his son when the strike was carried out.

When news he had been targeted began to circulate early on Tuesday, with his fate remaining unclear, another senior Israeli official said “there was no chance he survived this attack”.

Born in Najaf, Iraq, in 1958 he studied in Tehran and after the Islamic revolution rose through the ranks of the state, serving as culture minister, head of state broadcasting and, for more than a decade, as speaker of parliament..."

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/17/irans-security-chief-ali-larijani-...

US-Iran war update: Soldiers refusing to be deployed in Iran? New non-profit report raises concerns
Yash Nitish Bajaj | Mar 17, 2026

https://www.hindustantimes.com/world-news/us-news/usiran-war-update-soldiers-ref...
------------------------------------------------

Center on Conscience & War @CCW4COs | 2:31 PM · Mar 15, 2026:
Over 85 years helping U.S. service members & Conscientious Objectors. CALL for free, professional advice at 1-800-379-2679

We have spoken with the spouse of an infantryman in the 31st MEU currently headed towards Iran. With her permission we are sharing some details of the conversation 👇

Her husband wants “nothing to do with this war” and is not alone; some number of Marines in the unit, specifically rank E-3 to E-5, do not agree with the mission…

She reported that decline of confidence in the Department of War began with the Venezuela operation and intensified with the Minab school massacre…

Marines didn’t have time to talk options with our org as they were already deployed to Philippines & redirected from there. Families were notified by command. The only communication allowed was a single email thru a supervisors acct for vetting. Described as a “last message” home

She tells us at least one high-ranking officer in the unit is “war hungry” making repeated comments about this being a Holy War for Armageddon, causing some Marines & families to believe they have “no regard for safety” of his men or legality of orders.

The buzz among military families is that U.S. officials are “not being honest” about casualties, nor the number of units preparing to deploy. “Everyone is getting ready to go to war.”

With less than two weeks until the Marines arrive in theater, now is the time to build public pressure on Trump to step back from disaster. Service members and their families can be a powerful component of that. We can help: 1-800-379-2679

https://x.com/CCW4COs/status/2033249713651388648

American voters gave yahoo and Putin the gift of a lifetime ~ an American prez they could both play like a fiddle.

Joe Kent @joekent16jan19 | 9:24 AM · Mar 17, 2026
Retired Green Beret combat veteran, Gold Star husband. Director of the National Counterterrorism Center.

After much reflection, I have decided to resign from my position as Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, effective today.

I cannot in good conscience support the ongoing war in Iran. Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.

It has been an honor serving under @POTUS and @DNIGabbard and leading the professionals at NCTC.

May God bless America.

{Letter of resignation} https://x.com/joekent16jan19/status/2033897242986209689/photo/1

Trump Allies Panic as Iran War Spirals Out of Control
Ellie Quinlan Houghtaling | March 17, 2026

"Donald Trump’s allies are worried that Iranian officials “hold the cards now.”

... “We clearly just kicked {Iran’s} ass in the field, but, to a large extent, they hold the cards now,” one person close to the White House told Politico. “They decide how long we’re involved—and they decide if we put boots on the ground. And it doesn’t seem to me that there’s a way around that, if we want to save face.”

At issue is whether the U.S. can obtain control over the Strait of Hormuz, the water channel situated between Iran and the United Arab Emirates. The strait is the single most important energy transit point in the world, funneling approximately one-fifth of all crude oil shipments. Iran began laying mines across the passageway last week, effectively sealing the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman to the rest of the open ocean.

Ensuring the free flow of oil through the strait would likely require seizing control of portions of Iran’s shoreline, a warplan that would almost certainly require the physical presence of U.S. troops in Iran. But doing so could put America in yet another open-ended Middle East conflict—exactly the kind that Trump has railed against for more than a decade.

“The terms have changed,” a second person familiar with the U.S. operation in Iran told Politico. “The off-ramps don’t work anymore because Iran is driving the asymmetric action.” ... "

https://newrepublic.com/post/207848/donald-trump-allies-iran-war-control

Our Low-IQ President Did an Oopsie
You won’t believe Trump’s dumbest Iran mistake.
Jonathan V. Last | Mar 17, 2026

There have been low-grade reports about Iran mining the Strait of Hormuz for several days. I am skeptical of this rumint for two reasons. First, because the claims seem to come from “American officials,” and the U.S. government is no longer a trustworthy source of information. Second, because it is not in Iran’s interest to lay mines . . . yet.

That’s because mines are a dead man’s switch and Iran is currently looking to strike side deals for passage with China. By relying on drones and missiles to close the strait, Iran retains the flexibility to offer selective passage—which gives it both a bargaining chip and a wedge. Once mines are deployed, that strategic avenue is cut off and the strait is closed semi-permanently. For that reason, deploying mines is a strategic escalation—the economic equivalent of a tactical nuke. I would expect Iran to hold that card in reserve.

... Mining the Strait of Hormuz is the single biggest danger America faced heading into any conflict with Iran. How did our commander-in-chief plan to deal with it?

Six months ago the Navy decommissioned its four Avenger-class minesweepers that had been stationed in Bahrain precisely to deal with Iranian mines.

It gets dumber: Those four final American minesweepers left the theater in mid-January—while war planning for the current operation must already have been underway.

But wait, it gets even dumberer! ... "

{PAYWALL} https://www.thebulwark.com/p/our-low-iq-president-did-an-oopsie

These 6 Small Countries Are The Only NATO Members Backing Trump's War On Iran
Sara Dorn | Mar 18, 2026

Key Facts
Trump acknowledged this week that “most” NATO members have said they’ll stay out of the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

So far, the only NATO members that have come out in support of the U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran are the Czech Republic, Albania, Kosovo, North Macedonia, Lithuania and Latvia.

Others, including Denmark, Finland and Luxembourg, have remained neutral in their opinions of the strikes, while issuing broad criticisms of the Iranian regime.

Many, such as Italy and Spain, are outright critics ...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/saradorn/2026/03/18/just-6-nato-countries-publicly-...

OSINTtechnical @Osinttechnical | 9:58 AM · Mar 19, 2026:

"Iran’s strike last night wiped out 17% of Qatar’s natural gas export capacity, repairs are expected to take three to five years -Reuters

(Based prewar market estimates, Iran managed to destroy ~3.5% of global LNG capacity in a single strike.)"

https://x.com/Osinttechnical/status/2034630502506725791/photo/1

Iran not believed to have capability or intent to bomb Britain, says UK minister (Guardian)

Steve Reed says ‘UK is not going to be dragged into this war’ after Israeli warnings that Iranian missiles could hit Europe...

5m tonnes of CO2 emitted in just 14 days of US war on Iran, analysis finds (Guardian)

The US-Israel war on Iran is a disaster for the climate, according to an analysis that finds it is draining the global carbon budget faster than 84 countries combined...

Israeli settlers target Palestinian villages in occupied West Bank, attacking people and properties (BBC)

Extremist Jewish settlers have carried out a spate of attacks on Palestinian villages in the occupied West Bank, setting fire to homes, vehicles and agricultural fields...

These are the casualties and cost of the war in Iran 2 weeks into the conflict (NPR)

Human impact
Iranians killed - More than 1,200 civilians
(Source: Iran Health Ministry)

People killed in strike on Iranian school - At least 165 civilians
(Source: Iranian state media)

Iranians injured - Over 10,000
(Source: Iranian health officials)

Iranians temporarily displaced - Up to 3.2 million
(Source: UNHCR)

U.S. service members killed - At least 13, including 7 by enemy fire
(Source: U.S. Central Command)

Iranian hospitals impacted - 25 damaged, 9 out of service
(Source: Iranian health officials)

People in Lebanon killed - 773 people
(Source: Lebanon's Health Ministry)

People in Lebanon injured - 1,933 people
(Source: Lebanon's Health Ministry)

People displaced from Lebanon - 830,000 people
(Source: Lebanon's disaster management office)

People killed in Israel - 12 civilians, 2 soldiers
(Source: Israeli authorities)

Gulf State deaths - At least 16
(Source: United Arab Emirates state media, Kuwait state media, Saudi Arabia state media, Bahrain state media, Oman state media)

Percentage of Americans against the war - 56
(Source: NPR/PBS News/Marist poll)

Financial Toll
U.S. spending in the first 12 days of war - About $16.5 billion
(Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS))

U.S. spending in the first 100 hours of Operation Epic Fury - About $3.7 billion
(Source: CSIS)

Infrastructure Damage
Targets hit by the U.S.-Israeli campaign - More than 15,000
(Source: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and chairman of the Joint Chiefs Gen. Dan Caine)

Iranian vessels damaged or destroyed - More than 90
(Source: U.S. Central Command)

Edward Wong (NYT): "Netanyahu embraced a plan by the Mossad chief to ignite a regime change uprising in Iran for a quick victory. He used it to help convince Trump to start the war — despite doubts among some senior US and Israeli officials. It was a critical flaw in war plans."
------------------------------------------------

{Gift Article}
Israel Thought It Could Spur Rebellion Inside Iran. That Hasn’t Happened.
Mark Mazzetti, Julian E. Barnes, Edward Wong, and Ronen Bergman | March 22, 2026

"President Trump’s hopes that an Israeli plan to ignite an internal uprising against Iran’s theocratic government could bring the war to a swift end have so far been dashed.

... Within days of the war’s beginning, said David Barnea, the Mossad chief {Israel’s foreign intelligence service}, his service would likely be able to galvanize the Iranian opposition — igniting riots and other acts of rebellion that could even lead to the collapse of Iran’s government. Mr. Barnea also presented the proposal to senior Trump administration officials during a visit to Washington in mid-January ...

... The belief that Israel and the United States could help instigate widespread revolt was a foundational flaw in the preparations for a war that has spread across the Middle East. Instead of imploding from within, Iran’s government has dug in and escalated the conflict, striking blows and counterblows against military bases, cities and ships around the Persian Gulf, and against vulnerable oil and gas installations ..."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/22/us/politics/iran-israel-trump-netanyahu-mossa...

3/22/2026 | Report Alerts
OSAC does not issue alerts. These notices are sourced from the issuing
U.S. Embassy & Consulate

"Security Alert: Worldwide Caution (March 22, 2026)
The Department of State advises Americans worldwide, and especially in the Middle East, to exercise increased caution. Americans abroad should follow the guidance in security alerts issued by the nearest U.S. embassy or consulate. Periodic airspace closures may cause travel disruptions. U.S. diplomatic facilities, including outside the Middle East, have been targeted. Groups supportive of Iran may target other U.S. interests overseas or locations associated with the United States and/or Americans throughout the world."

https://www.osac.gov/Content/Report/cf913193-b0e1-4508-94db-29aff8d62ce1
----------------------------------------------

Consular Information for Americans in the Middle East
US Dept of State | Current as of March 22, 2026 - 9am ET

Receive the latest security updates
Contact our 24/7 Task Force
Security and travel information by country

https://travel.state.gov/en/international-travel/travel-advisories/global-events...

Heather Cox Richardson | March 23, 2026 (Monday)
History prof, Boston College
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson

"... Iran denied Trump's claims {that talks were occurring, so he would not be bombing civilian power facilities, triggering same action by Iran} and said its leaders had had “no direct or indirect contact” with Trump’s people. Iran’s foreign ministry suggested Trump was trying “to reduce energy prices and to buy time for implementing his military plans.” It said that countries in the region had approached Iran to begin negotiations and that “our response to all of them is clear: we are not the party that started this war, and all such requests should be directed to Washington.”

The S&P fell 120 points and the price of Brent crude rose to about $100 a barrel.
“What is happening here?” wrote Adam Kobeissi about the stock market in his newsletter.

The answer to which social media posters jumped was market manipulation. Economist Paul Krugman suggested the same in a post today, noting that someone who had insider knowledge “could have sold a bunch of crude oil futures, at very high prices, Brent was over $112 over the weekend, then bought them back immediately after Trump’s announcement of triumphal progress, but before the Iranians said that is not happening. And you could have turned a very, very nice, very large profit.”

Indeed, by the end of the day, reporters like Yun Li at CNBC noted that about fifteen minutes before Trump’s announcement there had been a sudden and sharp jump in S&P 500 futures and oil futures.

Krugman had other observations as well, though. Trump threatened to “commit a massive war crime” by striking civilian energy facilities and “must be looking for a way out.” Krugman noted that there is no apparent reason for Iranian leaders to be making a deal right now: it seems pretty clear that protracting the war constitutes winning in the metric of humiliating the U.S.

Krugman goes on to make a major point: “Think about how much America’s position in the world has been weakened, not just by apparent failure to subdue a fourth-rate power, but by the fact that everybody now knows that you cannot trust anything, cannot trust any promises the United States makes, you cannot count on the United States carrying through with promises, with threats, not just promises, but threats are also incredible in the sense of not being all credible, and that the default assumption should be that anything that this administration says is a lie.”

Trump doubled down on his post {about talks with Iran} this morning when he talked to reporters at Palm Beach International Airport, seeming to see an off-ramp from the conflict ..."

So, in addition to oil and N fertilizer, the world faces a shortage of helium. US Senator Chris Murphy (D-CT) tweeted, "It's just unreal how little thought or planning went into starting a new massive war in the Middle East.”

Scientist warns Trump may have sparked nationwide disaster
Alexander Willis | 24 March 2026

"Marc Johnson, a virologist and professor at the University of Missouri, revealed Monday that his institution’s supply of a critical medical resource will be “cut in half” as a result of the Trump administration’s war against Iran, and it carries potentially far-reaching consequences for medical facilities nationwide.

... The U.S.-Israeli war against Iran ... has ... sparked a major shortage of helium, which plays a critical role in the function of MRI scanners thanks to its “extremely low boiling point.” Beyond imaging, helium also plays a role in other medical applications, including surgery and research.

Qatar, which supplies a third of the world’s helium, was forced to halt production of the critical resource shortly after the Iran war was launched late last month... "

Raw Story via https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/scientist-warns-trump-may-have-sparked-n...

Israel Plans to Control Large Parts of Southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Says
Natan Odenheimer | March 24, 2026

"... the {Israel’s defense minister}, Israel Katz, said Israel will retain control of the territory south of the Litani River, which runs a few miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border at its closest point and is 15 to 20 miles away at its farthest. The river has long served as a geographic boundary in conflicts between Israel and {the Iranian-backed militia} Hezbollah.

It is unclear whether Israel would deploy troops across the entire area or rely on its air force to enforce its dominance over some parts of the area..."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/middleeast/israel-southern-lebanon-defe...

Israel Plans to Control Large Parts of Southern Lebanon, Defense Minister Says
Natan Odenheimer | March 24, 2026

"... the {Israel’s defense minister}, Israel Katz, said Israel will retain control of the territory south of the Litani River, which runs a few miles from the Israeli-Lebanese border at its closest point and is 15 to 20 miles away at its farthest. The river has long served as a geographic boundary in conflicts between Israel and {the Iranian-backed militia} Hezbollah.

It is unclear whether Israel would deploy troops across the entire area or rely on its air force to enforce its dominance over some parts of the area..."

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/24/world/middleeast/israel-southern-lebanon-defe...

'Protecting Civilization Against Fanatic Muslims' Netanyahu and His Son Join Europe's Far-right at CPAC in Hungary to Rally Against Migrants and the 'Woke Virus'
David Issacharoff | March 22, 2026

"Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orbán, facing his toughest re-election bid since 2010, called the illiberal right-wing movement 'the greatest political realignment in 100 years of the West, the U.S. as its epicenter, with Hungary as its forward base'..."

{Paywall} https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/europe/2026-03-22/ty-article/.premium/netanya...

The Pentagon orders troops from the 82nd Airborne Division to deploy to the Middle East
NPR Staff | March 25, 2026

"As the war approaches the one-month mark the Trump administration keeps its options open, submitting a ceasefire plan to Iran, while also deploying up to 3,000 U.S. Army paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East.

Revelations about the ceasefire plan come as multiple Iranian officials continue to deny that any negotiations to end the war are taking place.

And the U.S. paratroopers would supplement some 50,000 troops already present in the Middle East, as well as thousands of Marines who are on their way ..."

https://www.npr.org/2026/03/25/nx-s1-5760675/iran-war-military-deployment

Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar | 11:51 AM · Mar 25, 2026:
ISW is a policy research organization focused on U.S. national security.

NEW: The United States has reportedly sent Iran a 15-point plan to conclude the war, according to unspecified officials speaking to the New York Times. The officials said that the plan addresses shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. (1/2)

Pakistan reportedly delivered the US proposal to Iran. Israeli officials continue to express that they expect the war with Iran to continue for “weeks.”

Iran sent a letter to International Maritime Organization member states on March 22 stating that “non-hostile” ships can pass through the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iran, according to the Financial Times. Ships associated with the United States, Israel, or other “participants in the aggression” are not eligible for safe passage.

This report is consistent with reports that over 20 vessels have taken an Iranian-approved route through the Strait of Hormuz as of March 23. Iran has reportedly required some of these vessels to pay a fee to transit the strait.

The combined force continues to conduct airstrikes against Iranian naval capabilities to degrade Iran’s ability to threaten shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. The IDF said that it recently struck two long-range anti-ship cruise missile manufacturing facilities in Tehran. The IDF also struck a facility responsible for designing and developing submarines and support systems in Esfahan Province.

Iran has launched six barrages of missiles targeting Israel since ISW-CTP’s last data cutoff. One missile impacted near a power station in Hadera, northern Israel. Israeli media also reported an impact in an industrial zone in the Negev Desert.

{Map, ship traffic Straits of Hormuz} https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/2036833353274433852/photo/1

2/ ISW-CTP will provide further analysis on the war with Iran in its March 25 Iran Update. Read ISW-CTP’s latest analysis about the war here: https://understandingwar.org/analysis/middle-east/iran-update/

Israel used white phosphorus to scorch earth in south Lebanon, researcher says (Guardian)

When the M825-series 155mm artillery projectile bursts, expelling its felt wedges containing white phosphorus, it leaves a distinctive knuckle-shaped plume. That is how Human Rights Watch (HRW) researchers said they were able to verify that Israel was again using the notorious weapon over south Lebanon, reigniting accusations that it is breaking the laws of war. The New York-based rights group said it had verified and geolocated eight images showing airburst white phosphorus munitions exploding over residential areas in the southern Lebanese town of Yohmor in the opening days of Israel’s assault during the war on Gaza... White phosphorus is a chemical substance dispersed in artillery shells, bombs and rockets that ignites when exposed to oxygen, burning at up to 800C and emitting large quantities of smoke. Military forces use it as a smokescreen to mask troop movements, mark targets or illuminate terrain at night, and military lawyers argue such uses are entirely legitimate. But its use over civilian areas is controversial – and some claim illegal – because it ignites fires, causes serious burns and emits toxic fumes...

How Trump’s Plot to Grab Iran's Nuclear Fuel Would Actually Work
Caroline Haskins | Mar 26, 2026

"Experts say that an American ground operation targeting nuclear sites in Iran would be incredibly complicated, put troops’ lives at great risk—and might still fail ... President Donald Trump and top defense officials are reportedly weighing whether to send ground troops to Iran in order to retrieve the country’s highly enriched uranium. ... "

https://www.wired.com/story/us-iran-war-nuclear-extraction-ground-operation/
---------------------------------------------

Considering how willing Trump apparently is to risk lives of his military -- and innocents -- to take Iranian uranium, contrast Jimmy Carter's personal bravery (at 26) in assisting Canada with one of the first nuclear accidents: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/ottawa/chalk-river-nuclear-accident-1.6293574 . Lots of mythology around Carter's contribution, but there is no doubting his personal bravery -- and expertise.

Yikes?

Ed Krassenstein @EdKrassen | 9:54 AM · Mar 27, 2026:
https://x.com/EdKrassen/status/2037528606776148114

BREAKING: This is escalating fast. These latest updates spell doom.

• Saudi Arabia urging U.S. to ramp up attacks — may join the war
{https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/mar/27/saudi-arabia-us-iran-attacks-mohammed-bin-salman}
• Iran just turned back 2 Chinese state-owned container ships in the Strait of Hormuz — despite China being on the “approved” list
{https://www.tradewindsnews.com/containers/two-giant-chinese-container-ships-halt-bid-to-sail-through-strait-of-hormuz/2-1-1967228}
• Tehran now says ONLY ships carrying household goods, cars, clothing, or pharmaceuticals for Iran can pass
• Only ~33% of Iran’s missiles destroyed after 1 month
• Iran still has a “significant” arsenal + recoverable stock
• Drone capability largely intact
• Iran’s Supreme Leader has refused negotiations

Trump screwed us.

>44 margd: All entirely predictable.

Here's Alastair Crooke with Lt. Col. Daniel L. Davis. Just out. The names alone tell you it's worth watching.
Alastair Crooke: IRAN Will NOT Compromise
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzfqtjAIkJA
(ground invasion discussed at 32:00+)
Crooke's substack: https://conflictsforum.substack.com/p/are-there-or-will-there-be-us-negotiations

Are there, or will there be, US negotiations with Iran?
Alastair Crooke, 26 March 2026
Conflicts Forum
Mar 26, 2026
∙ Paid
The short answer is ‘no’. Trump was confabulating when he said that he was already in negotiations with ‘important Iranians’.

There is a back history to the US’ ‘negotiations narrative’: In earlier rounds of ‘negotiations’ centred on the Ukraine conflict, Trump regularly would suggest that political negotiations with Russia were ongoing, when in practice, Witkoff and Kushner were simply engaging in a series of endless talks with the Europeans about establishing a ceasefire and the putative European-led ‘peacekeeping’ role that the Europeans were demanding. In fact, these ‘peace plans’ were never shared, or shown to Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov.

A prolonged ‘ceasefire’ then was seen by the White House as the bypass strategy to trying to resolve the entrenched security architecture issues between NATO and Russia’s sphere of security interests. Russia simply said ‘no’ to Trump’s attempt to ‘kick the security architecture can down the road’.

The same pattern of dissimulation was evident in the Gaza ceasefire talks: Ceasefires were proposed without specifying any details of what might follow in Phase Two of the ceasefire.

Last weekend, Witkoff and Kushner drew up their wish-list for yet another ceasefire — in Iran this time — with more ‘cans’ to be kicked along for later discussion. Same story. Same confabulation. A fifteen-point peace plan, drawn up by Witkoff and Kushner, was put to the client mediators — with its demands being hailed by Trump as “very good, and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of hostilities” — and with Iran “desperately wanting a deal”.

Iran, to Trump’s chagrin, said ‘no way’ to the proposal: Ebrahim Zolfaghari, spokesperson for the Iranian military, said, “Our first and last word has been the same from day one, and it will stay that way”.

Iran has no interest in a compromise at this point as it has not achieved its (audacious) strategic ambition to overturn the long-standing US-Israeli military and financial dominance of the Gulf region — and to remake it as a wide Iranian economic and military sphere of interest (‘hemisphere’, if you will).

ETA: Here is the RUSI study Crooke cites. https://www.rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/over-11000-mun...
Reported: https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-israel-burning-through-tomahawk-intercepto...

Listening, no matter how bad you think it is, it's worse. And once you grasp the stakes, you'll realize that most actors wedded to the status quo will see no choice but to double down. As I said before elsewhere, it's worthy that Persia should be the rock upon which the empire breaks its back.

The opponent is worthy. The shame is in the abject stupidity of the circumstances.

ETA: And Amb. Freeman with Pascal Lottaz
🚨 Breaking: US Plans Weekend Iran Invasion. Devastating Consequences | Amb. Chas Freeman
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pSuoq0JKGuY
No recent writings published, but they show up here. https://chasfreeman.net/category/speeches/

ETA: And Jeremy Scahill on Democracy Now!
"Quagmire": Jeremy Scahill on Iran War, Strait of Hormuz, Market Manipulation & More
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qe50SQpPrd8
Scahill writes at Drop Site: https://www.dropsitenews.com/s/jeremy-scahill

The rest of the latest crop, still on my list for background listening.
John Mearsheimer: "Iran Holds All the Cards" - The Strategic Defeat of the U.S.
with Glenn Diesen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DBOVT0UdHXg
Mearsheimer's substack:
https://mearsheimer.substack.com/

John Mearsheimer & Trita Parsi: U.S.-Israeli War on Iran – Risks of Wider Conflict
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cg6MD07Vz6U

IDF Chief: Israeli Military COLLAPSING After Endless War
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p6eQdwOs-Ro
(Breaking Points)

Why Israel Wants a War with Iran (w/ Gideon Levy) | Chris Hedges Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nedj7RSphvY
Chris Hedges Report substack: https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/why-israel-wants-a-war-with-iran

“Many Will Die:” Military Expert Warns of Iran Escalation Trap | Amanpour and Company
Prof. Robert Pape
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ghs03B9lkrw&pp=ygULcm9iZXJ0IHBhcGU%3D
(Plenty of other recent appearances in the past few days by Pape, including a 2-hour appearance on Triggernometry, apparently.)
Prof. Pape now writes here:
https://escalationtrap.substack.com/

A war of regression: how Trump bombed the US into a worse position with Iran (Guardian)

Analysts fear Iran has played a weak hand well and the US has blundered into a defining strategic failure... Four weeks into a war that was going to take four days, and that has so far cost the US about $30-40bn and Israel $300m a day, Washington is further away from a diplomatic agreement with Iran than it was in May 2025. Not only has the war failed to persuade Iran to agree to dismantle its nuclear programme in the comprehensive and irreversible way the US demanded in a 15-point paper that it tabled on 23 May last year, Washington is now having to negotiate to reopen the strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway that has been open ever since the invention of the dhow, with a short exception of a tanker war in the 1980s between Iran and Iraq. This regression is proving to be perplexing for the American high command. Pete Hegseth, the secretary of defence, recently said that “the only thing prohibiting transit in the strait right now is Iran shooting at shipping”, but this was not quite right. Iran has not been shooting at shipping that much in recent weeks. Instead, it is the fear of Iran shooting at shipping that is scaring off insurers and tanker owners. Still worse from the US perspective, Iran has set up a waterside stall whereby prime ministers and tanker owners can bargain with the Iranian navy over the toll they are willing to pay for their tankers to be given “free passage”. Iran plans to turn the strait into a money spinner, just as Egypt charges for access to the Suez canal... Little wonder Trump is thrashing around. The US along with Israel continues to bomb Iran, but he has now twice put back the date of threatened strikes on Iran’s civilian power stations – an action that would constitute a war crime. He continues to insist Iran has been defeated and yet Iran continues to behave as if it is not. That is partly because this struggle is not just being fought in command posts, but on the trading floor. The price of oil is the key metric for Iran’s success, along with its remaining supply of missile launchers... But it is not just oil. The strait provides passage for chemicals, helium, metals and fertilisers. As during the Covid pandemic, the world is discovering something new about the inter-connectedness of supply chains and how geography has blessed Iran with a unique chance to break these chains... it is hard to find a serious commentator, of any nationality or expertise, who thinks the advantage in this war currently lies with the US...

“The reality is the US underestimated the task and I think, as about two weeks ago, lost the initiative to Iran. In practice, the Iranian regime has been more resilient than anyone would have expected. They took some good decisions as early as last June about dispersing their weapons and delegating authority for using those weapons which has given them extra resilience. Through the strait they have globalised not internationalised the conflict. They have played a weak hand pretty well”... “It is becoming painfully clear that not only the United States and Israel are losing this war, but that this is one of the biggest strategic failures of the west, with the most significant consequences for regional geopolitics and the global economy since world war two.” She said the US was nowhere near meeting its original strategic goals and had only created new problems... “Trump’s legacy is at stake in Iran: if the war drags on, that will be all that will be remembered of his second term. George W Bush also did not want to be a war president: he had goals regarding education, immigration and social welfare. None of this was accomplished; his record was crushed by the war in Iraq.” Americans, including Republicans, want this war to end, adding to the pressure on Trump to prove that sending 10,000 troops to the Middle East would not be the definition of a strategic quagmire. Inside the Iran regime, where survival was the objective, there is a growing sense that the balance is tilting in their favour...

Perhaps the single most important analysis this week.
This man should be SecDef, age be damned.

(Col.) Lawrence Wilkerson: Israel May Cease to Exist & Launch Nuclear Strike
https://youtu.be/XelyhraVOD8?si=7SxXYta9PIsEqlpV&t=50

Key moments:

On Gen. Keane's island blather: https://youtu.be/XelyhraVOD8?si=9-BoAyXx5XU34dwZ&t=492 to 10:01

On mismatch between Trump's maladaptive style and the Iranian position, continuing into the situation of Israel https://youtu.be/XelyhraVOD8?si=82-GBkEaClIt6pMl&t=1024 -- which flows directly into discussion of matters nuclear and the possibility (flowing logically from an assessment of technical feasibility) that Iran may already have at least a handful of nuclear weapons -- discussed around 23:00, culminating at 28:30. The talk then flows into an evaluation of the strong potential for a global war as energy importers collectively hit the skids.

Assessment of SecEnergy, leading to the probable reaction of the U.S. and Israel to the actuality of an Iranian weapon around 35:00. https://youtu.be/XelyhraVOD8?si=09MqF50gI3i5HKDQ&t=2023

Even aside from nuclear questions, assessment of Iran's likely response to invasion of, e.g., Kharg raises the extreme fragility of Gulf life-support infrastructure. A few targeted missiles at desalination plants could render many of the countries in the region uninhabitable. This includes Israel. Also see the eminently targetable Saudi Arabian pipeline to the Red Sea, which might well be useless anyhow as the Houthis resume their blockade. Possible response contemplated around 39:00.
*************************************************************

Also absolutely essential: a short snippet of one of NCTC Director Joe Kent's post-resignation interviews, with Amb. Freeman's brief response.
https://www.youtube.com/live/FnMwyOTXhAU?si=jNv3kyPSXtujq-JH&t=3197

Retired Army counterterrorism officer on Minab.

Trump gets PUBLIC WARNING by US INTELLIGENCE OFFICER!! (MeidasTouch)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5p_h3YoINo8

Why should we pretend we are otherwise than what we have become?

That speech will be remembered in the history books, if there is anyone left to write them. The name is Captain Josephine Guilbeau.

So will this one.

'Iran and Gaza Are ONLY THE BEGINNING' (Chris Hedges at Princeton)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TV9dkU2E8j0
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/iran-and-gaza-are-only-the-beginning

A Hormuz Initiative to Protect Global Food Security (International Crisis Group)

The Middle East conflict threatens global food security. The International Crisis Group and prominent individuals call for an initiative, modelled on the 2022 Black Sea grain deal, to ease the transit of food, fertiliser and related intermediate materials through the Strait of Hormuz...

Following Col. Wilkerson above, MIT Prof. Emeritus Theodore Postol's analysis of the state of Iran's nuclear deterrent, from the horse's mouth.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JtUobr7xGz4

Bottom line: even if Iran does nothing to advance the production of a weapon until the moment it has been hit, nuclear retaliation with perhaps a dozen simple Hiroshima-like fission bombs should reasonably be expected within several weeks. They would not need to be tested beforehand, as indeed the Hiroshima bomb was not. The firestorm from 3 such weapons would suffice to destroy Tel Aviv.

Prof. Postol's intention is that the portion of the Israeli population more sane than present leadership should be informed of this and act accordingly.

Iran denies responsibility for 'depraved' attack on Kuwait desalination plant
Iranian forces have repeatedly accused Washington and Tel Aviv of carrying out false flags since the US-Israeli war against the Islamic Republic began

News Desk
MAR 30, 2026

https://thecradle.co/articles/iran-denies-responsibility-for-depraved-attack-on-...

Chris Hedges' Q&A at Princeton following the historic speech at >48 davidgn:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vThLmEH-U8I

Worth remembering he's the Pulitzer-winning former New York Times Middle Eastern Bureau chief (i.e., before parting ways over being correct about the Iraq War).

Amb. Freeman on floated rumors of a TACO attempt.
https://www.youtube.com/live/xP1FOI2NeQE

I'm afraid someone is about to eat his TACO.

ETA: Discursus at 22:00 on our Secretary of War Crimes and his prayer for rivers of blood.

----------
Also yesterday, long-form with Amb. Freeman at The Cradle: https://www.youtube.com/live/VgKKEsWNBX0

Fania Oz-Salzberger 🇮🇱🕊️🟣 פניה עוז-זלצברגר @faniaoz | 3:32 PM · Mar 31, 2026:
Israeli, Jewish, History prof., wife, mom. Humanism, democracy, peace. Tel Aviv U (BA, MA), Oxford (D.Phil), Uppsala (Dr. h.c)

"Please share. Let it be known that many Israelis are enraged by the Ben-Gvirite settler terror and the death penalty law, and that some of them are brave enough to demonstrate and face unprecedented police brutality in the streets of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem."

Quote
Oren Ziv @OrenZiv_ }|12:05 PM · Mar 31, 2026:
Journalist & photographer @972mag

"During a protest outside the Knesset against the death penalty law for Palestinians, Israeli police used a water cannon, injuring photojournalist Menahem Kahana.

Video by: Tomer Cordovi
(0:26) https://x.com/OrenZiv_/status/2039011200021782936 "

Israeli invasion of Lebanon could be worse than 1982, warn European officials
Ragip Soylu and Heba Nasser | 31 March 2026

"... For many Lebanese, the broad scope of Israel’s military campaign in recent weeks already recalls its 18-year occupation of the south of their country, which ended after years of confrontation with Hezbollah forced Israeli troops to withdraw in 2000.

This time, Beirut has taken unprecedented steps that include opening the door to direct engagement with Israel ... Israel declined Lebanon’s offer for direct talks, which also drew little interest from the United States. Tel Aviv viewed the offer as too little, too late – given Beirut’s inability to rein in Hezbollah since the end of the last war, in November 2024.

Annexation of the south
Israel has declared most of southern Lebanon a military zone and has targeted bridges and crossings over the Litani River, effectively cutting off a large part of the south from the rest of the country.

It has also issued blanket expulsion orders for all residents south of the river, which runs about 30km north of Lebanon’s border with Israel.

Since Hezbollah entered the broader Iran war on 2 March, Israel has gradually advanced across several areas of southern Lebanon in a coordinated push towards the Litani.

{a European official with knowledge on the matter} said the Israeli military is carrying out a so-called “Khan Younis option” in southern Lebanon, in reference to Israel's tactic in Gaza's southern city. This approach involves systematic destruction of civilian infrastructure, the flattening of buildings, and the mass expulsion of the population.

... several senior Israeli officials have publicly discussed an indefinite presence in Lebanon. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has suggested extending Israel’s border north to the Litani, while Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Tuesday that after the war, Israel would occupy a swathe of southern Lebanon and maintain control up to the river ..."

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/israeli-invasion-lebanon-could-be-worse-1982-...

So, we're blowing up Iran's universities. They have already pledged to respond in kind. The UAE and Bahraini, possibly also the Qatari campuses of American-accredited universities on this list, particularly those that are extensions of US-based universities, should prepare for rapid unscheduled deconstruction.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_American_universities_and_colleges_outside...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mtF7au4eAZ8
Trita Parsi on this. We've graduated from justifying the Israelis' MO to fighting like the Israelis. Expect the progressive destruction of all intellectual culture in the region. (And, by other means, at home).

Iranian civilization in the long run will look back on Trump as the author of its return to greatness.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZXDWh3faH_Y (Prof. Robert Pape)

Palestinian and Israeli bereaved families’ reconciliation work recognised by Nobel nomination (Tablet)

An organisation of Israeli and Palestinian bereaved families working together for reconciliation, dialogue and nonviolence has been nominated for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize... “In a time marked by war, distrust, and despair, the Parents Circle-Families Forum offers a rare spark of hope for the future,” the nomination said, “and demonstrates that the true moral choice is between those committed to shared humanity and those perpetuating violence.” “PCFF shows that our shared pain can be a bridge, not a barrier,” Dolev said after submitting the nomination. “It is precisely through bereavement that a genuine human connection can be created – one that leads to understanding, solidarity, and meaningful dialogue, even between those on opposing sides of the conflict.” “A Nobel Prize for PCFF would be a catalyst for change,” the nomination continued. “It would amplify the voices of grassroots communities currently lacking visibility and redirect global attention toward reconciliation rather than partisan support.” Founded in 1995, PCFF is made up of more than 850 Palestinians and Israelis who have lost immediate family members in the ongoing conflict. The organisation works to transform personal grief into a “powerful force” for peace, security and freedom for both peoples, through educational and public programmes, working with parents, children and young adults, in schools, communities, media, and the international arena...

Holy Anne Frank! Are not Holocaust victims rolling in their graves this Passover??

NYT: Israel Urges Christian and Druze Communities to Force Shiites Out of Southern Lebanon
Democracy Now | Apr 02, 2026

"The New York Times reports Israeli military officials are privately urging Christian and Druze communities in southern Lebanon to force out Shiite Muslim residents sheltering among them. Human rights groups condemn the plan as ethnic cleansing. This comes as Israel has ordered the expansion of its so-called buffer zone in Lebanon from the Litani River to areas north of the Zahrani River, displacing about a fifth of the Lebanese population. Israel’s finance and defense ministers have called on Israel to annex southern Lebanon. ..."

https://www.democracynow.org/2026/4/2/headlines/nyt_israel_urges_christian_and_d...
-----------------------------------------------

Israel Tells Lebanon's Christians and Druze: Expel Your Shiite Neighbors (NewsRescue Editorial)
Senior Editor | April 2, 2026

"Israel has crossed yet another line — and the international community is, as usual, looking the other way.

Israel has issued sweeping evacuation warnings across southern Lebanon and, according to Christian and Druze community leaders cited by the New York Times, has pressed them to expel their Shiite Muslim neighbors from towns and villages in the south.

The Times headline was direct: Israel’s Message to a Broad Swath of Lebanon: Shiites Must Go.*

Israel has also signaled its intention to maintain permanent control over a portion of southern Lebanon even after the current conflict ends. The stated rationale is security. The practical effect is the forced demographic reorganization of a multi-sectarian region.

Lebanon’s fragile sectarian balance — Christians, Druze, Sunni, and Shiite — has been the foundation of the country’s political system since independence. It has also been its greatest vulnerability. The demand to pit these communities against each other carries implications that extend well beyond military strategy ..."

https://newsrescue.com/israel-tells-lebanons-christians-and-druze-expel-your-shi...
------------------------------------------------------

* Israel’s Message to a Broad Swath of Lebanon: Shiites Must Go
Christina Goldbaum & David Guttenfelder | April 1, 2026
{Paywall} https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/01/world/middleeast/lebanon-shiite-israel-evacua...

Forbes: "Hegseth’s spokesperson has categorically denied the report and called on the Financial Times to retract it."

Democrats Launch Another Probe Into Pete Hegseth’s Alleged Effort To Buy Up Defense Stocks Before Iran War
Alison Durkee | Apr 02, 2026

"Hegseth’s spokesperson has categorically denied the report and called on the Financial Times to retract it.

Key Facts
Hegseth’s stock broker at Morgan Stanley reached out to BlackRock in February, before the Iran invasion, about making a “multimillion-dollar investment” in the firm’s ETF for defense stocks, the Financial Times reports based on multiple anonymous sources, and the inquiry was flagged internally at BlackRock.

The Pentagon strongly denied the report and called for the Financial Times to retract the story with spokesperson Sean Parnell calling the story “entirely false and fabricated,” while Morgan Stanley and BlackRock have not commented.

A coalition of Senate Democrats launched an investigation into the reporting, ABC first reported Thursday, sending a letter to Hegseth demanding answers about his finances after Democrats on the House Oversight Committee launched a separate probe earlier in the week.

Hegseth couldn’t invest in the fund because it was not available for Morgan Stanley clients, according to the Financial Times, and it’s unclear if the defense secretary went on to invest in any other defense stocks or ETFs, though executive branch employees have to report any trades of stocks or other securities within 45 days of the transaction taking place.

But it’s also unclear if Hegseth could afford such a large investment, since he reported his liquid assets ranged between only $460,000 and $1.1 million last year, and Forbes estimated his total net worth at $3 million.

The report happens amid suspicious—and highly lucrative—betting on prediction markets times with major announcements from President Trump ..."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurkee/2026/04/02/democrats-launch-another-pr...

Over 100 US legal experts condemn strikes on Iran as possible ‘war crimes’ (Al Jazeera)

More than 100 United States-based international law experts have signed an open letter condemning US and Israeli military strikes on Iran as a violation of the United Nations Charter and potentially amounting to “war crimes”. The letter, published on Thursday, also said the conduct of US forces and statements by senior US officials “raise serious concerns about violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law”. The scholars warned that the US-Israeli campaign, which began on February 28, was launched without UN Security Council authorisation and without credible evidence of an imminent Iranian threat. “Force against another state is only permitted in self-defense against an actual or imminent armed attack or where authorized by the UN Security Council. The Security Council did not authorize the attack. Iran did not attack Israel or the United States,” the letter said. The experts’ concerns fall into four areas: the legality of the decision to go to war; the conduct of hostilities; threatening rhetoric from senior officials; and what they describe as the dismantling of civilian protection structures inside the US government under Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “gloves off” approach to warfare. The scholars highlighted a strike on a primary school in Minab, Iran, on the first day of the war that killed at least 175 people, most of them children, as well as attacks on hospitals, water plants and energy infrastructure. “We are seriously concerned about strikes that have hit schools, health facilities, and homes,” the letter said...

Is the US committing war crimes by targeting Iran’s civilian infrastructure? (Guardian)

International law experts ‘seriously concerned’ about ‘strikes on schools, health centres and homes’ in contravention of Geneva conventions...

Iran Is Quickly Repairing Missile Bunkers, U.S. Intelligence Says
Reports cast doubt on how close the United States is to destroying Iran’s missile capability, a key goal in the war.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/03/us/politics/iran-missiles-launchers.html

No shit, Sherlock. They built them inside tunneled-out granite mountains for a reason. It's like smashing the entrance to an anthill on your driveway and expecting victory over the colony.

Trump (4/4/26, 10:05 AM):
"...all Hell will reign (sic) down on them. Glory be to GOD!"
https://x.com/JonLemire/status/2040433743169556681/photo/1
-------------------------------

Russ Hjelm @russhjelm | 11:19 AM · Apr 4, 2026 {X.com}
"Nothing says Easter better than raining down fire on your enemies, right?"

>62 margd: contd. Crazy talk, yes, but doesn't quite read like usual posts from our "Great Leader"(?)

President Trump:
“Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!!! Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH! Praise be to Allah. President DONALD J. TRUMP”
https://bsky.app/profile/atrupar.com/post/3miqqowpj3s2l

- Aaron Rupar ‪@atrupar.com‬ | 8:26 AM · Apr 5, 2026

Trump talking war -- and price of eggs -- from balcony at White House Easter Egg Roll (PBS Live News) https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/watch-live-trumps-hold-white-house-easter-...
-------------------------------------------------

Meanwhile:

Israel hits key Iranian petrochemical plant in massive gas field as mediators float ceasefire proposal
Jon Gambrell, David Rising, Samy Magdy (AP)| Apr 6, 2026

Israel struck a key petrochemical plant at Iran's massive South Pars natural gas field and killed two paramilitary Revolutionary Guard commanders on Monday, putting into question a new 45-day ceasefire proposal for Tehran and the United States.

... Egyptian, Pakistani and Turkish mediators have sent Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and U.S. Mideast envoy Steve Witkoff a proposal calling for a 45-day ceasefire and the reopening of the strait ...

In Islamabad, two senior officials said Pakistan's efforts for a ceasefire are at an advanced stage but "several spoilers and detractors" are trying to sow confusion through disinformation. ...

Meanwhile, explosions boomed in Tehran and low-flying jets could be heard for hours.

Among those killed ... the head of intelligence for Iran's paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, Maj. Gen. Majid Khademi, ... the leader of the Revolutionary Guard's undercover unit in its expeditionary Quds Force, Asghar Bakeri...

Oil prices rise as pressure grows ...
Airstrikes kill more than 25 across Iran ...
War's death toll in the thousands ..."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/israel-hits-key-iranian-petrochemical-plant-i...

The Iran war is changing how millions of people cook — and what they eat
Ayurella Horn-Muller & Naveena Sadasivam | Apr 06, 2026

"Across Asia and Africa, the cooking gas shortage is emptying menus, driving people to coal and wood, and fueling a booming black market..."

https://grist.org/food-and-agriculture/the-iran-war-is-changing-how-millions-of-...

Iran Fears Trump's LOST IT: Will Nuke Them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5q2sdBYgAck
(Trita Parsi on Breaking Points)

...and longer-form with Chris Hedges
Is the Iranian War About to Become Apocalyptic? (w/ Trita Parsi) | The Chris Hedges Report
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dUyJubRB-ek

Current Report @Currentreport1 | 9:50 AM · Apr 7, 2026:
Breaking news | Sharp analysis | Real-time updates from around the world

"JUST IN:
Iranians are gathering on bridges and around power plants, forming human chains after threats of US and Israeli strikes on Iran's civilian infrastructure.

(Video, 1:07) https://x.com/Currentreport1/status/2041513850022089135 "

Gabbar {Writer} @Gabbar0099 | 4:36 AM · Apr 6, 2026:

"One of the most widely shared videos worldwide 💔🇵🇸
Israel did this."

{Aerial of Gaza, before and after, 0:56} https://x.com/Gabbar0099/status/2041072595941093845

Stellar Man @stellarman22 | 1:07 PM · Apr 7, 2026:
Real-time geolocation, Global intelligence analysis, Conflict news, US politics and affairs, Tech news ...

🚨 B-52s are departing RAF Fairford! Local video shows a loaded B-52 taking off.
~7 hour combat flight time to Iran puts them in striking range by 8pm

From Liz Webster (0:14): https://x.com/stellarman22/status/2041563448937525592

BBC CAUGHT Manufacturing Consent For Nuclear War On Iran
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vjYB5IXxAd0
(Novara Media)

TRUMP DECLARES CEASEFIRE! w/ Ex-CIA Larry Johnson & Ex- U.S Military Malcolm Nance (currently live, w/ Mario Nawfal, {terminally} in Dubai)
Allegedly 2 weeks. Presumably negotiated with himself. Schrodinger's ceasefire w/ imminent wave function collapse.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SMzJ7xvh5co

Good that genocide didn't happen last night, but after all the expenditure of blood & treasure & fossil fuels, a 2-week ceasefire and this --

US and Iran agree to a two-week ceasefire
BRIDGET BROWN, LORIAN BELANGER, BRIAN P. D. HANNON, BERNARD MCGHEE, LUENA RODRIGUEZ-FEO VILEIRA, DREW CALLISTER, JIM ANDERSON and NELL CLARK | April 7, 2026

"... The two-week ceasefire plan includes allowing both Iran and Oman to charge fees on ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a regional official said Wednesday on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. The strait is in the territorial waters of both Oman and Iran. The world had considered the passage an international waterway and never paid tolls before.

Israel is still attacking Iran, according to an Israeli military official who spoke on condition of anonymity in line with regulations Wednesday. Moments earlier, the White House said Israel had agreed to the terms of the two-week US-Iran ceasefire agreement. Iran also kept up fire on Israel."

https://apnews.com/live/iran-war-israel-trump-04-07-2026#0000019d-6b03-d1f7-a9bf...
-----------------------------------------------------

Carl Quintanilla ‪@carlquintanilla.bsky.social‬ | 7:39 PM · Apr 7, 2026:
26+ years at @CNBC and @NBCNews / @WSJ alum / Peabody & Emmy winner

"$2 million per ship — to cross a Strait that was free six weeks ago.
{Text excerpt} https://bsky.app/profile/carlquintanilla.bsky.social/post/3miwx7phdvk23 "
from {Paywall} https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/06/world/middleeast/iran-10-point-proposal.html

It’s Not a TACO. It’s a Surrender.
William Kristol, Andrew Egger, and Jim Swift | Apr 08, 2026

"Iran 1, Trump 0.

... as Jonathan V. Last put it on last night’s Bulwark livestream, that “This entire thing was avoidable and predictable. Donald Trump made America walk into the diner to eat the shit sandwich.”

The fact that this a shit sandwich doesn’t mean that one shouldn’t welcome this ceasefire. A ceasefire is better than war crimes. A deal to stop the fighting will be better than more death and destruction and economic damage. But the whole episode is a defeat for the United States, and for Donald Trump.

At 12:01 this morning, Trump tried to make the best of it all with a seven-exclamation-point post:

A big day for World Peace! Iran wants it to happen, they’ve had enough! Likewise, so has everyone else! The United States of America will be helping with the traffic buildup in the Strait of Hormuz. There will be lots of positive action! Big money will be made. Iran can start the reconstruction process. We’ll be loading up with supplies of all kinds, and just ‘hangin’ around’ in order to make sure that everything goes well. I feel confident that it will. Just like we are experiencing in the U.S., this could be the Golden Age of the Middle East!!! President DONALD J. TRUMP

I suppose “big money” may be made from this war and its aftermath by the Trump family. But for the United States of America, Trump’s war has been a defeat and a warning.

Recovering from this defeat will be a long-term challenge. All we can do in the short term is prevent further acts of gratuitous damage to our country and the world. The public can punish Trump’s Republican party this fall. Democrats can try to check Trump through the legislative and appropriations processes.

But the warning is this: thirty-three more months of an increasingly reckless and unhinged Trump in control of the executive branch of the United States poses too great a risk. The Founders set up a mechanism to deal with such an unfortunate eventuality in the presidency: impeachment, conviction, and removal from office. So Congress should heed the words of the young prince Guiderius in Shakespeare’s Cymbeline: “Come on then, and remove him.” ..."

https://www.thebulwark.com/p/its-not-a-taco-its-a-surrender-trump-iran-ceasefire...

How Trump Took the U.S. to War with Iran
Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman | April 27, 2026

"... The reporting underscores how closely Mr. Trump’s hawkish thinking aligned with Mr. Netanyahu’s over many months, more so than even some of the president’s key advisers recognized. Their close association has been an enduring feature across two administrations, and that dynamic — however fraught at times — has fueled intense criticism and suspicion on both the left and the right of American politics.

And it shows how, in the end, even the more skeptical members of Mr. Trump’s war cabinet — with the stark exception of Mr. Vance, the figure inside the White House most opposed to a full-scale war — deferred to the president’s instincts, including his abundant confidence that the war would be quick and decisive. {Tucker Carlson}

... Mr. Netanyahu’s presentation {in} four parts. First was decapitation — killing the ayatollah. Second was crippling Iran’s capacity to project power and threaten its neighbors. Third was a popular uprising inside Iran. And fourth was regime change, with a secular leader installed to govern the country.

The U.S. officials assessed that the first two objectives were achievable with American intelligence and military power. They assessed that the third and fourth parts of Mr. Netanyahu’s pitch, which included the possibility of the Kurds mounting a ground invasion of Iran, were detached from reality.

... Within the cabinet, Mr. Hegseth was the biggest proponent of a military campaign against Iran.

Mr. Rubio indicated to colleagues that he was much more ambivalent. He did not believe the Iranians would agree to a negotiated deal, but his preference was to continue a campaign of maximum pressure rather than start a full-scale war. Mr. Rubio, however, did not try to talk Mr. Trump out of the operation, and after the war began he delivered the administration’s justification with full conviction.

{Chief of Staff Suzie} Wiles had concerns about what a new conflict overseas could entail, but she did not tend to weigh in hard on military matters in larger meetings; rather, she encouraged advisers to share their views and concerns with the president in those settings.

... At no point during the deliberations did {Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine} directly tell the president that war with Iran was a terrible idea — though some of General Caine’s colleagues believed that was exactly what he thought. {General Caine shared with Mr. Trump and others the alarming military assessment that a major campaign against Iran would drastically deplete stockpiles of American weaponry, including missile interceptors, whose supply had been strained after years of support for Ukraine and Israel. General Caine saw no clear path to quickly replenishing these stockpiles. He also flagged the enormous difficulty of securing the Strait of Hormuz and the risks of Iran blocking it. So persistent was the chairman in not taking a stand — repeating that it was not his role to tell the president what to do, but rather to present options along with potential risks and possible second- and third-order consequences — that he could appear to some of those listening to be arguing all sides of an issue simultaneously.}..."

{Gift article} https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/07/us/politics/trump-iran-war.html?unlocked_arti...

"Iran demands crypto fees for ships passing Hormuz during ceasefire"

Ahmed Al Omran @ahmed | 7:44 AM · Apr 8, 2026: {X.com}
Saudi correspondent @FT. Previously seen in @nytimes, @WSJ and @NPR

"🚨 FT scoop: Iran demands $1 per barrel of oil passing through Strait of Hormuz, wants to be paid in cryptocurrency

https://www.ft.com/content/02aefac4-ea62-48db-9326-c0da373b11b8?syn-25a6b1a6=1"
---------------------------------------------------

"... The Very Large Crude Carrier (VLCC) and Ultra-Large Crude Carrier (ULCC) were added as the global oil trade expanded and larger vessels provided better economics for crude shipments. VLCCs are responsible for most crude oil shipments around the globe, including in the North Sea, home of the crude oil price benchmark Brent. A VLCC can carry between 1.9 million and 2.2 million barrels of a WTI type crude oil. With current WTI prices near $92 per barrel, a fully loaded VLCC could carry about $100 million dollars' worth of crude oil. ..."

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=17991

From the "water is wet" department.

Israel Actively Sabotaging The Iran Ceasefire
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uKqR9snrHVM
(Majority Report with Sam Seder)

You Call This a CeaseFire? /Fmr CIA Analyst Larry Johnson with Col. Daniel L. Davis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cNNJwYXtChs

Pepe Escobar fills in blind spots, which is always his forte. Israel bombing civilian areas of central Beirut, flattening villages in the South, and bombing the Chinese-funded Belt and Road-linked railroad in Iran -- apparently reflective of the manner in which they have accepted the ceasefire. Looks like a very pointed fuck-you to the Chinese from the Israelis for their apparent involvement in the "ceasefire" deal.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82bKfWICwVs
(Snippet on the differential perception of the war in the West versus the Global South: https://www.youtube.com/live/82bKfWICwVs?si=lni3kWb4yAaVpPyb&t=2129 )

(And also: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfx-GW7D6_w )

The latest LEGO propaganda in response: https://x.com/RyanRozbiani/status/2042020050719092836

Speaking of China, what does China have to do with all of our recent wars? Col. Wilkerson laid that out more straightforwardly than I've seen anywhere else in this interview with Chris Hedges. Almost a week old, but doesn't go out of date.

The key segment is at the beginning of this one. Note that the Colonel misspeaks at one point. Substitute "16 days" for "16 hours" and things become clearer.
https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/will-there-be-a-ground-invasion-of

Chris Hedges: ....Joining me to discuss what may be the next stage of the war on Iran and its potential consequences is Lawrence Wilkerson, a retired Army Colonel and the former Chief of Staff to Secretary of State Colin Powell.

He is a Vietnam War veteran who attended Airborne School, Ranger School, and the Naval War College, and who, as a helicopter pilot in Vietnam, logged over 1,000 hours on combat missions. He went on to serve as Deputy Director of the Marine Corps War College at Quantico, and was Executive Assistant to Admiral Stuart A. Ring, United States Navy Pacific Command, and Director of the United States Marine Corps War College. He has taught at the College of William and Mary, and George Washington University. He is a senior fellow at the Eisenhower Media Network, a group of former military, intelligence, and civilian national security officials who describe themselves as offering alternative analyses untainted by Pentagon or defense industry ties and countering Washington’s establishment narrative on most national security issues of the day.

So, before we begin with some of the specific questions that I raised in the introduction, just give us your view, Larry, of where we are with this war.

Lawrence Wilkerson: That’s difficult to do because the President and the Secretary of War (Defense) have not been very articulate in expressing what their mission is and what their purpose is. But let me back up for a moment and paint a little geostrategic landscape that I think is behind this war and is not talked about by many people, primarily, I think, because they don’t understand it historically or currently. We really are, for some reason, actually trying to stop China from executing its probably, potentially at least, most dangerous base road initiative to our interest. Now that assumes that it is inimical to our interests. I think we have made that assumption. That road would come up through Iran and trace Alexander the Great’s route all the way up through what would be the 1,875 or so miles of shoreline on the Persian Gulf on the eastern side and all the way up to the Caucasus. It would link China’s Pacific ports, just as the other three base road initiative railroads do through Russia and the Caucasus, with Europe in a way that would reduce its shipping time from something like a day and a half to two days, depending on which way you go, to about 16 hours.

Trains have already plied these railroads, including the one going through the southern part of Iran. If that happens, then all maritime nations, leading of which is the United States, of course, ‘the protector of the seas’, will no longer have seas really worth protecting in the sense of commerce, because commerce will be basically land-borne. At least 60 % of it will come out of Asia and go to Europe and elsewhere on the land.

You’ll have to get on some kind of boat to get to South America, I guess. But nonetheless, this is a monumental change, and it’s one we’re fighting tooth and nail. Whether Donald Trump knows any of this or Pete Hegseth knows any of this, I have no idea. But that is, I think, behind a lot of what we’re doing. It’s also behind Ukraine because Ukraine stopped the very central railroad, which was already making 16-hour trips into the heart of Europe going all the way to Bremerhaven and Le Havre and other places like that critical to European trade, if it were not adumbrated, as it were, by the war going on in Ukraine. And, think about that for a moment as to why Joe Biden and others, Blinken and Sullivan, might have had some reason for doing Ukraine, as it were, rather than what they’ve been telling us or what they did tell us. This is all about China, and it’s all about stopping China.

Which is to say, I’m not sure that any of this administration that is functioning in front of us every day knows anything about this other than that their masters have told them to do this. And we can talk about who their masters are back in the shadows, but I think that’s ultimately what we’re looking at. So, it’s much more consequential in this struggle between the rising power and the declining power, and there’s no question about that now, than people think or know.

And so, it has these ramifications that make things that look tactically and even operationally stupid at the moment and yet are tied to this much bigger tapestry of geopolitical and geostrategic reality, declining power, rising power. Where’s Russia going to go in all this? Russia has a choice. She’s both maritime power and land power, principally the latter, as Mackinder made clear. But she does have a formidable maritime capability now growing every moment by her Arctic coastline and the receding ice in the Arctic. So, she’s got a choice to make, and she hadn’t made it yet. It looks like she’s going with China, but there’s this relationship between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, which is kind of strange really, if you think about it, unless you understand what Putin wants, which is a better relationship with Washington and maybe even a helping hand, not to Europe, not to NATO, not to the transatlantic link -he’s destroyed those or is destroying them - but to Washington because he sees there’s something left there worth being friendly with. So, we’ve got to work all of that into what we’re talking about right now. And what we’re talking about right now is throwing a sledgehammer into that that is awesome because what Iran is doing is upsetting everybody’s plans to the tune of Mohammed bin Salman being so incredibly insulted by Donald Trump in southern Florida recently, that now he’s thrown his lot in with Zelensky and has changed his routing of his pipelines and other things to avoid Israel and to go through Syria instead. I mean, these are monumental changes that this hugely, hugely wealthy sovereign wealth fund is making almost overnight because of the insults that Trump hurled at MBS.

And then you’ve got Iran. And what Iran can do to this whole business I’ve been talking about in Southwest Asia, which is, if it executes its second tier of targets, the first tier, back up a little bit, the first tier was so devastatingly done and so indicative of fine intelligence that it was unbelievable to many of the regional powers. They hit Bahrain and destroyed the 5th Fleet headquarters and destroyed the largest oil refinery in the Gulf, been there for years, and put the Bahraini royal family and fleet flying away. They hit Erbil, where they had hit a number of times before, in Kurdistan, northern Iraq. They had hit it before with minor missiles just to let the Israelis and the CIA and MI6 know that Iran knew they were there. They hit it this time and just blew it out. They hit our embassy in Baghdad. We’re operating on only emergency personnel there now. And by the way, in Bahrain, we sent 2000 people back with a suitcase, a kit bag, to Norfolk that have now landed in Norfolk. That’s how Marco Rubio did his NEO-business so incompetently. And now the citizens of Norfolk and Chesapeake and other areas, Hampton Roads, are having to support these people who’ve come back with nothing other than the shirt on their back and nothing, just a kit bag. That’s what they were told, and they were gone because Bahrain was struck so fiercely. Well, all to say they have a second tier of targets or maybe a third, but the second tier is much more devastating. The first tier of targets was essentially, as they said, we’re not going to hit you if we don’t have to, Prince Sultan Air Base. We’re not going to hit Saudi Arabia. We’re going to hit the US. Al Udeid, we’re going to hit the US. We’re not going to hit you, Qatar. They had some incidental damage. They even apologized for a lot of it. This time, that’s not a criterion. This time, they’re going to hit it to devastate it, to devastate the region, to devastate Saudi Arabia, to devastate the Emirates, all the other countries. Maybe Oman will be spared. I suspect it will.

This would be a devastating blow to the global economy because we’re talking about places like Ras Tanura in Saudi Arabia where it’s 650,000 barrels a day or like Unison in Saudi Arabia where it’s 7 % of the world’s best supply of oil. This is a huge blow, and we’ve already talked about things like urea and helium and other things. Taiwan maybe got about 15 days left and Taiwan is not included in “Yes China, you can go through the strait.” Taiwan cannot go through the strait. So, this could be depression-producing on the globe if they hit these other targets and they shut down and at the same time the Houthis renew their vigorous pursuit of closing the Red Sea to most traffic that is not supportive of taking out the Israelis, if you will.

Then we’ve got two of the most important waterways in the world, Red Sea even, and the Bab al-Mandab, even more important than the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf, taken out of commission. We could have a global, not just recession, we’re close to a recession right now, two quarters in a row, we could have a global depression that would impact a lot of the world, even ultimately Russia, which looks like it’s sitting in the catbird seat right now, but might not be if all of a sudden things turn sour for them in this global economy that is not going to be operating anymore.

All to say this is a much, much more serious struggle than anyone in the prima facie team leading this country, America, seems to understand. And that is incredibly worrisome because all Trump seems to know when he hits something like that is doubling down, reinforcing strategic failure and all the faults that one can cite about someone who gets in a mess of his own making that he doesn’t know how to get out of.

Chris Hedges: When you talk about hitting the second tier targets, is this contingent upon the threat to hit oil refineries, oil processing centers in places like Kharg Island? What is it that will trigger that second tier assault?

Lawrence Wilkerson: I don’t know exactly. I’m not sure anyone in the intelligence community knows either. I’m not sure the Iranians have come to a final decision about it. I listened to Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi’s remarks to Al Jazeera English the other day, and he was very definitive about most things. And he usually speaks in English. He’s very competent in English. But he chose to speak in Farsi here and let the Al Jazeera English translator do it. And he seemed a little bit less smooth, perhaps, when he was describing some of the aspects of Iran’s position and what it was in resolution. And they weren’t abandoning that position. And in that, I think I heard that they were going to wait and see what happens with this next iteration of Trump’s war before they actually decide to execute this much more dangerous to the global economy portion of their campaign plan, if you will. And I can understand that. I think Lavrov and Wang Yi in China and now Araghchi are three of the finest diplomats in the world. And I listen to him when he talks and I listen to Wang Yi and I listen to Sergey Lavrov. We have nothing to match them. We have nothing to even come close to them, which is a huge deficit right now.

When he says what he says and he says it with the resolution that he can say it with, I think what he is indicating is we are prepared to go to the wall. And what that means is we are prepared to do everything in our power, not only to, as we have stated as a clear objective, rid Southwest Asia of U.S. military presence, but we’re also prepared to cripple half the fricking region in order to do it. And that’s really disturbing, especially when you know the position that Netanyahu has privately said he’s in now. He’s very, very hard pressed in Lebanon. He’s not winning in Lebanon. He’s hard pressed in the West Bank. He’s winning there because he’s now given very draconian orders to the IDF to join the settlers, Wipe them out, get rid of them, just like he did in Gaza.

So that’s the unknown in this for me, is how attached is Trump to Bibi Netanyahu? And will he go to his destruction and major destruction to the American empire for Bibi? Or will he stop it somewhere? And then if he does stop it, what then will Bibi do?

>77 davidgn:

So the completion of railroads across Europe and Asia will make global trade freer, quicker, cheaper and more environmentally friendly, and the USA has started an illegal war just to protect its own economic interests in the form of global shipping? If that's true it's not really surprising, but it's a worrying trend that extreme violence is being used so casually, cavalierly and capriciously as an element of routine economic rivalry. Silly me, thinking that capitalism was about free trade and open markets!

>78 John5918: I don't think that's the sole explanation by a long shot, but I certainly do expect it's a major factor in play, yes. cf. also the sudden incapacitation of certain pipelines, followed by the transformation of the U.S. into the world's LNG powerhouse.

America’s Suez Crisis (w/ Alastair Crooke) | The Chris Hedges Report
Amidst the US-Iran negotiations, Alastair Crooke says, Iran is not incentivized to end the war. Instead, it seeks to upend America's hegemonic dominance of the region — and "break the paradigm."

https://chrishedges.substack.com/p/americas-suez-crisis-w-alastair-crooke (video and transcript)

Absolutely stunning, as always.

ETA: The denouement.

Alastair Crooke: From what I understand, the Iranians don’t think that America is about to resume the war. America. They think Israel is a different case. But they don’t think America is likely to resume the war because they don’t really have any cards to play. Already, the Iranians have pushed the naval assets 1,000 kilometers from the coastline by firing drones as warning and pushing. So, the carriers have been pushed beyond the range of their deck strike aircraft to be able to overfly Iran without refueling, and you can’t refuel over your target. It’s not an advisable thing to do. They pushed that up. They’ve destroyed most of the bases in the Gulf states. Heavy damage. The radar systems have been destroyed. Some of the AWACS have been disabled.

So, apart from the ability to just simply blindly bombard basically civil infrastructure - houses, residences, hospitals and things like that - in Tehran and elsewhere, all, by the way, not necessarily by aircraft flying over it because they largely don’t, these are standoff weapons, cruise missiles, others that are used to do these attacks. So, what’s really left to the United States militarily to do that would be a game changer? What? Bomb again Natanz?

The only thing that is particularly worrying is in this period, Nantanz, the nuclear facilities that was bombed in June by President Trump, has been bombed again by Israel. But Israel has also put into a missile very close to Bushehr. And just so your viewers are clear about it, Bushehr is a working nuclear-powered power plant, which is a joint venture with Russia. So, it’s half-staffed with Russians. About, I think, 135 of them have now been withdrawn. But then there was another missile, which actually hit Bushehr. Not much damage, a little damage. But what’s the signal coming from Israel, from that, on the nuclear target? And I think the signal is not so much to Iran, but to the United States.

Chris Hedges: And what are they saying to the US?

Alastair Crooke: Keep the war up or else we might decide that we are going to resort to tactical nuclear weapons.

(some typos in original corrected)

🚨Trump and Iran NEGOTIATIONS COLLAPSE in Pakistan!!! (MeidasTouch)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqTc11PkcU4

"What we have here, is a failure to communicate."

Never mind Iran's nuclear ability, freedom of navigation is a third rail for the US, so I suspect US military isn't going anywhere until Hormuz is resolved... Meanwhile, Hormuz is Iran's winning card, so it isn't likely to back down without a fight. Wonder how many sunken ships would entirely block passage?

(Lloyd's of London?) surely wouldn't insure ships under these conditions, at least without huge surcharge? OTOH, a shipping rep on the Great Lakes once told me that shipowners lose $20K every day a ship can't sail. Tankers and other huge ships probably lose more than that?
----------------------------------------------------

‘This is the last warning.’ Iran threatens U.S. warships after they throw down the gauntlet for winner-take-all Strait of Hormuz
Jason Ma | April 11, 2026

"... The USS Michael Murphy turned on its automatic identification system as it and another destroyer, the USS Frank E. Peterson, transited the strait {Hormuz}, breaking the typical protocol of Navy ships sailing with their AIS turned off.

... Campbell University professor Salvatore Mercogliano, who specializes in military and maritime history, said ... “... They wanted to turn this on on the far side of the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate that they have sailed through.”

... The destroyers’ crossing of the strait comes as the U.S. and Iran began ceasefire talks in Pakistan this weekend. But if the Navy creates a safe avenue for tankers that doesn’t require getting Iran’s permission and paying a toll, then talks would shift in America’s favor.

As a result, the IRGC {Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps} challenged the Navy destroyers as they transited ... “This is the last warning. This is the last warning,” the IRGC said.

“Passage in accordance with international law. No challenge is intended to you, and I intend to abide by rules of our government’s ceasefire,” the U.S. ship replied.

Iranian media said the destroyers turned around after being confronted by the IRGC, which reportedly launched a drone in the direction of the destroyers. {But destroyer signalled passage by turning on its auto ID system??} The IRGC also said any attempt by military ships to cross the strait would be met with a “firm and forceful response.”

Until now, U.S. warships have avoided the strait as Navy officials previously have described it as an Iranian “kill box” filled with numerous threats, including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and mines. And given how narrow the strait is, projectiles can be fired from close distances and provide little time for a defensive response.

... the U.S. military continues to send more combat power to the region... Littoral combat ships, which are equipped with mine-hunting underwater drones, may also be in the mix.

{Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy, energy market analyst, founder} compared neutralizing Iran’s threats to a game of whack-a-mole, noting the variety of its weapons, and pointed out that the U.S. has reduced Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines.

“It may not be widely reported, but I believe the U.S. military in the last week or so has been focusing on whacking those moles, degrading Iran’s ability,” he added. “You may not perfectly get rid of it, but degrading Iran’s ability to interdict shipping down to a manageable level—and that’s when insurance can come into play and escorts, and folks can start to move through.”"
https://fortune.com/2026/04/11/iran-war-us-warships-strait-of-hormuz-transit-irg...
---------------------------------------------------

Press Release | April 11, 2026
U.S. Forces Start Mine Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz
USCENTCOM

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4457220/...

Never mind Iran's nuclear ability, freedom of navigation is a third rail for the US, so I suspect US military isn't going anywhere until Hormuz is resolved... Meanwhile, Hormuz is Iran's winning card, so it isn't likely to back down without a fight. Wonder how many sunken ships would entirely block passage? (Remember March 2021, when it took a week to dislodge 400m-long (1,300ft) Ever Given in Suez Canal -- and it was floating!)

(Lloyd's of London?) surely wouldn't insure ships under these conditions, at least without huge surcharge? OTOH, a shipping rep on the Great Lakes once told me that shipowners lose $20K every day a ship can't sail. Tankers and other huge ships probably lose more than that? Then there's risk to economies across the globe. What a mess!
----------------------------------------------------

‘This is the last warning.’ Iran threatens U.S. warships after they throw down the gauntlet for winner-take-all Strait of Hormuz
Jason Ma | April 11, 2026

"... The USS Michael Murphy turned on its automatic identification system as it and another destroyer, the USS Frank E. Peterson, transited the strait {Hormuz}, breaking the typical protocol of Navy ships sailing with their AIS turned off.

... Campbell University professor Salvatore Mercogliano, who specializes in military and maritime history, said ... “... They wanted to turn this on on the far side of the Strait of Hormuz to demonstrate that they have sailed through.”

... The destroyers’ crossing of the strait comes as the U.S. and Iran began ceasefire talks in Pakistan this weekend. But if the Navy creates a safe avenue for tankers that doesn’t require getting Iran’s permission and paying a toll, then talks would shift in America’s favor.

As a result, the IRGC {Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps} challenged the Navy destroyers as they transited ... “This is the last warning. This is the last warning,” the IRGC said.

“Passage in accordance with international law. No challenge is intended to you, and I intend to abide by rules of our government’s ceasefire,” the U.S. ship replied.

Iranian media said the destroyers turned around after being confronted by the IRGC, which reportedly launched a drone in the direction of the destroyers. {But destroyer signalled passage by turning on its auto ID system??} The IRGC also said any attempt by military ships to cross the strait would be met with a “firm and forceful response.”

Until now, U.S. warships have avoided the strait as Navy officials previously have described it as an Iranian “kill box” filled with numerous threats, including anti-ship missiles, drones, fast-attack boats, and mines. And given how narrow the strait is, projectiles can be fired from close distances and provide little time for a defensive response.

... the U.S. military continues to send more combat power to the region... Littoral combat ships, which are equipped with mine-hunting underwater drones, may also be in the mix.

{Bob McNally, Rapidan Energy, energy market analyst, founder} compared neutralizing Iran’s threats to a game of whack-a-mole, noting the variety of its weapons, and pointed out that the U.S. has reduced Iran’s stockpile of underwater mines.

“... the U.S. military in the last week or so has been focusing on whacking those moles, degrading Iran’s ability,” he added. “You may not perfectly get rid of it, but degrading Iran’s ability to interdict shipping down to a manageable level—and that’s when insurance can come into play and escorts, and folks can start to move through.”"
https://fortune.com/2026/04/11/iran-war-us-warships-strait-of-hormuz-transit-irg...
---------------------------------------------------

Press Release | April 11, 2026
U.S. Forces Start Mine Clearance Mission in Strait of Hormuz
USCENTCOM

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/PRESS-RELEASES/Press-Release-View/Article/4457220/...

>83 margd: What does "third rail" mean in north American English? Not a term I've encountered anywhere outside railways.

>85 John5918: The thing that ends anyone who messes around with it. Like a subway third rail.

The lads found Channel 13's countdown clock.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qjkYZzU3d3Y

Larry Johnson on Singaporean media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIaUiK5m2dc

eta Meiselas. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uywVYhstPew
And for the record, here's the WaPo Op-Ed from the 8th: https://archive.ph/JzAyQ
"Fourth, carry out a final barrage of leadership strikes, eliminating the Iranian officials who had been spared for the purpose of negotiations. Iran’s leaders must be made to understand that their lives literally depend on reaching a negotiated settlement to Trump’s liking. If they refuse to do so, they will be killed.”

>86 davidgn: Ah, I see. Thanks. Not a phrase I've ever heard used in that context, but one certainly wouldn't want to mess with the third rail on a railway.

The expression 'third rail' (politics) "is most commonly used in North America. Though commonly attributed to Tip O'Neill, Speaker of the United States House of Representatives from 1977 to 1987, it seems to have been coined by O'Neill aide Kirk O'Donnell in 1982 in reference to Social Security." (Wikipedia)

Trump threats cause dilemma for US officers: disobey orders or commit war crimes (Guardian)

Donald Trump’s threats to carry out mass bombing of civilian infrastructure in Iran present US military officers with a dilemma: disobey orders or help commit war crimes... There is little debate among legal experts that such an attack on the life-supporting infrastructure for 93 million Iranians would constitute a war crime. “Such rhetorical statements – if followed through – would amount to the most serious war crimes – and thus the president’s statements place service members in a profoundly challenging situation,” two former judge advocate general (JAG) officers, Margaret Donovan and Rachel VanLandingham wrote on the website Just Security on Monday. “As former uniformed military lawyers who advised targeting operations, we know the president’s words run counter to decades of legal training of military personnel and risk placing our warfighters on a path of no return.” They noted that Trump’s boast that he would bomb Iran “back to the Stone Ages”, and the order by his defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, to show “no quarter, no mercy” were not just “plainly illegal” but they also represented a rupture from the moral and legal principles that US military personnel had been “trained to follow their entire careers”... here were many historical examples of service-members questioning orders, refusing to obey, passively disobeying or even intervening to stop war crimes. She cited as an example US soldiers who refused to take part in the 1968 My Lai massacre in Vietnam, including a helicopter pilot who threatened to shoot the perpetrators. In his court martial, the officer who ordered his men to gun down hundreds of Vietnamese villagers, 2nd Lt William Calley, argued that he was only obeying orders, but the court ruled that was no defence as such orders were “palpably illegal”...

A strategy ‘to make life intolerable’: Israeli settlers are driving Christians out of West Bank (Guardian)

The Taybeh community has survived crusaders and the Ottoman and British empires, but the latest attacks leave its future in question...

The United States Cannot ‘Win’ a War on Iran

U.S. and Israeli forces have targeted schools, hospitals, city parks, and cultural sites along with military and governmental facilities. This will likely lead to only greater resistance. Iran certainly cannot win a war in the face of the massive U.S. and Israeli onslaught. As recent weeks have shown, however, it can still prevent the United States from winning. In a new form of asymmetrical warfare, Iran has proven itself capable of wreaking havoc on the global economy to punish the United States and Israel for its aggression...

Trump’s Disastrous War of Choice in Iran

Whether or not the ceasefire ends up failing, the erratic President has put the region and world in grave danger. It is difficult, as of this writing, to speculate as to whether a genuine ceasefire in the war with Iran will take hold, even temporarily. Under previous U.S. presidential administrations, it was easier to make predictions, even when foreign policy decisions were based on faulty assumptions, since there was at least some sense that decision making would be based on strategic thinking. Not so under President Donald Trump, who has consistently sidelined or overruled knowledgeable advisors, including those in top military and intelligence positions, in order to pursue policies that appear to be motivated more by emotion than rational thinking. Indeed, even if the two-week ceasefire holds, the United States may simply use it to rearm and resupply its depleted stocks in order to resume its war on Iran. If the ceasefire does mean the end of hostilities for the foreseeable future, it will be hard for the Trump Administration to portray it as any sort of victory...

Both from Professor Stephen Zunes in the Progressive Magazine

Trump announces US blockade of Strait of Hormuz, warns Iranians of being ‘blown to hell’
The US plans to block ‘all maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports’ starting on Monday
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3349813/blown-hell-trump-annou...

My first thought. "What the hell does that accomplish?"
My second thought: "Oh, right. Trump."

My bingo card now includes:
*Trump enacts blockade toll of his own, forcing his "JV."
*The US portion of the toll is payable to 1) Trump's Board of Peace 2) Trump's Presidential Library Foundation 3) Trump's personal or family business interests.
*Trump JV toll payable in: A) USD, B) Tether or other Trump network-linked USD stablecoin, C) Some ungodly Trumpcoin or another
*US invades Iranian islands
*China invades Taiwan
*US Navy attacks and/or seizes major power-flagged and/or -linked ship, creating casus belli.
*Iran (or "somebody," likely via submarine) sinks a US surface combatant in the scrum.
*Trump sells merch commemorating the sinking. Slogan: "Fight, Fight, Fight!" Grieving family members get 20% discount.

Any other thoughts? We're in for a boatload (possibly a carrier-load) of "fun."

Will Trump’s Naval Blockade of the Strait of Hormuz Work? | John Mearsheimer and Joshua Landis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIhG1t-Uvac

Short answer: No.
Longer answer: No, and ultimately, China will have to get involved.

Choice moment:
https://youtu.be/fIhG1t-Uvac?si=QV1UOesXwGHZHWgG&t=1174
Prof. Landis cites and considers Joe Kent's shocking claim: "The reason that Trump is leaving NATO is because then America can side with Israel when it goes to war against Turkey over Syria." Clearly Kent's other "shocking" claim -- that the US (with help that Kent didn't mention in >47 davidgn:, but Crooke does in, if I recall correctly, >9 davidgn: /// nope, >45 davidgn:. Here we go: https://www.youtube.com/live/VzfqtjAIkJA?si=bxLAqdrteVgbjfm7&t=968 /// ) intentionally created ISIS, then were obliged to fight the brushfire we ourselves created -- is not worthy of remark.
(eta cf. Kent w/ Glenn Diesen https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=teapZxaBgDI )

Larry Johnson with Pyotr Kurzin (Johns Hopkins SAIS):
TRUMP'S NAVAL BLOCKADE IS ALREADY FAILING | w/ Larry Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YsOpeOtnLX0

25th Amendment removal NOW!

Vance is not good news, especially for women, but he has small children, and, I assume, would be less likely to fire off a nuclear weapon or crash the global economy in a midnight fit of pique. He might even give Stephen Miller his walking papers. Maybe without orders from Trump, Vance wouldn't embarrass us overmuch on the world stage -- dweeby remarks aside...
-------------------------------------------

Heather Cox Richardson (historian, Boston College) · April 12, 2026 (Sunday)
https://www.facebook.com/heathercoxrichardson

"... Economist Heather Long told Alicia Wallace of CNN: “It’s going to get a lot worse before there’s any relief. Even if the war on Iran ends in two weeks, and there’s magically an agreement, inflation will continue to rise for months to come.” She continued: “We haven’t seen it come through with food yet, in airfares—those are clearly going to go higher—and in transit costs. It’s just a matter of time.” She added: “We almost forget the tariffs, because we’re all paying attention to the gas, but it’s a good reminder that part of the issue here is we’re piling on top of what was already rising.”

... The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, together with Germany and the European Union—took 20 months to hash out. The agreement constrained Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for a relaxation of sanctions that would let Iran recover about $100 billion of assets frozen in overseas banks.

Yesterday Vice President J.D. Vance, Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, and Trump’s special envoy for the Middle East Steve Witkoff were in Islamabad, Pakistan, to negotiate with Iran ... announced after only 21 hours that they could not reach an agreement and were leaving.

At just about the same moment Vance, Kushner, and Witkoff left the negotiations, Trump and Secretary of State Marco Rubio were watching an Ultimate Fighting Championship match in Miami. Earlier, Trump had said to reporters that he didn’t care if the team in Islamabad reached an agreement...

Today Trump announced that the U.S. military will blockade the Strait of Hormuz, sending the price of oil surging ...

It is unclear what the president hopes to accomplish by blockading the strait. He told Maria Bartiromo of the Fox News Channel his new policy is “called ‘all in and all out.’ There’ll be a time when we'll have ’em all come in, and all come out, but it won’t be a percentage. It won’t be a friend of yours, like, a country that’s your ally or a country that’s your friend; it’s all or nothing. And that’ll be, uh, that won’t be in too long a distance. No, we’re, uh, just bringing the ships up. We got a lot of ships, so we’re bringing them up. We think that numerous countries are gonna be helping us with this also, but we’re putting on a complete blockade. We’re not gonna let Iran make money on selling oil to people that they like and not people that they don’t like, or whatever it is. It's gonna be all or none, and that’s the way it is, and it’ll be, you saw what we did with Venezuela. It'll be something very similar to that, but at a higher level.”

... Viktor Orbán's ... defeat is a major blow to the MAGA belief that the right-wing forces opposing liberal democracy are the vanguard of an unstoppable movement blessed by God.

Trump responded to Orbán’s defeat with a long screed attacking Pope Leo XIV, who has spoken out against the religious justification for wars, a statement widely interpreted as commentary on the Trump administration’s claim that the war in Iran is a holy war...

Today is Orthodox Easter, and about 45 minutes after attacking the Pope, Trump posted an image of himself in the place of Jesus, apparently healing a sick man in a bed, surrounded by a soldier, a nurse, a woman praying, and an older man. Behind him are the Statue of Liberty, the Lincoln Memorial, and a giant American flag, while in the sky are two eagles, three fighter jets, soldiers, and what seems to be a monster.

Amid popular revulsion at what people are calling heresy and blasphemy, former U.S. representative Marjorie Taylor Greene wrote: “It’s more than blasphemy. It’s an Antichrist spirit.”

A minute after posting the image of himself as Jesus, Trump posted an image of a Trump tower on the moon."

Meiselas just out. Iran will close Bab el-Mandeb in response. Shocker. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MFa0ynGAnFM

“I Want to Occupy”: Inside the Israeli Movement Pushing to Raze and Settle Southern Lebanon
Theia Chatelle | April 11 2026

"In the communities closest to Israel’s northern border, residents argue the only way to keep themselves safe is to displace their Lebanese neighbors ..."

https://theintercept.com/2026/04/11/israel-lebanon-hezbollah-attacks-iran-war/
___________________________________

DNC Shoots Down Resolutions Calling Out AIPAC and Limiting Arms to Israel
Matt Sledge | April 9 2026

"The party just kicked the can down the road again on Israel, deepening the divide between party members and their leaders

... the Democratic National Committee on Thursday shot down symbolic resolutions targeting AIPAC and arms transfers to Israel.

Members of a resolutions committee meeting in New Orleans rejected one symbolic resolution that would have condemned AIPAC’s role in party primaries and tabled a pair of resolutions that called for conditioning military aid to Israel.

Polls show that Democratic Party members are increasingly skeptical of Israel and supportive of Palestinians — a shift that hasn’t been reflected in the party’s official position ..."

https://theintercept.com/2026/04/09/democrats-dnc-israel-aipac-resolution/

Alastair Crooke : Iran Will Not Be Bullied
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LJaEyk9eeV8

Strait of Hormuz and Dueling Blockades - The United States and Iran Block Access to the Persian Gulf (What's Going on With Shipping?)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xddTUc14iOw
Oh, Sal.

(Virginia-born) Prof. of American Studies @ Tehran U., Seyed Marandi, member of the Iranian Islamabad delegation, provides the Iranian perspective to Col. Davis. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VzRYsIdG7uk
With particular note to the countermeasures the delegation was obliged to take when returning to Iran given the active death threats against them published in the WaPo (cf. >88 davidgn: ) and elsewhere.

Italy suspends defence agreement with Israel (BBC)

Italy will not renew its defence agreement with Israel, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said. Meloni said her government had decided to suspend the renewal, which happens every five years, "in view of the current situation", without offering specifics...

Israel is trying to change Jerusalem’s religious identity (Al Jazeera)

Israel is destroying the Status Quo to establish full control over Muslim and Christian religious life at holy sites...

Navy Combat Vet: HORMUZ BLOCKADE NIGHTMARE /Lt Col Daniel L. Davis & Steven Jermy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etxmqrdm3V0

UK Cdre (ret.) Jermy (who has also had postgraduate economics training at Cambridge) discusses the wide-reaching and poorly recognized knock-on consequences of the blockade, based on modeling he and colleagues currently have in process.

https://www.youtube.com/live/etxmqrdm3V0?si=UG8QHVBSC1zb3Uj9&t=2971 is the key sound bite. Includes citation of the IEA's Fatih Birol: "Worse than the first and second oil shocks and COVID put together."

Double standards? Why Iran’s nukes are scrutinised, Israel gets a pass (Al Jazeera)

Israel’s policy of ambiguity about its nuclear capability contrasts sharply with the global focus on Iran’s nuclear ambitions...

Israeli strike severs last bridge linking southern Lebanon to rest of country, Lebanese security official says
Reuters | April 16, 2026

"... a ​senior ​Lebanese security official ‌told ⁠Reuters, adding that the ​strike "shattered" ​the ⁠bridge and ​left ​no ⁠possibility of repairing ⁠it."

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/israeli-strike-severs-last-bridge-link...

The catchup.

Larry Johnson & Col. Wilkerson: Iran Just FULLY Opened the Strait of Hormuz – It’s OVER for Trump
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ionE4H44LUA

Amb. Chas Freeman: Israel’s Strategy Just COLLAPSED – Trump Steps In
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6qdsG_BfTJ8

WAR & DECEPTION - w/ Alastair Crooke (yesterday)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TN-tSpcFKE8
An excellent recap of Crooke's overarching, paradigmatic insights which get lost in the day-to-day. Absolutely essential for anyone who hasn't been following Crooke.
First 13:30 is pure background, recapitulating what he's been saying for years. At 13:30 he brings in the last round of negotiations.
Around 42:00, predicts new U.S. attack.

The Iran war has revealed Trump's pressure point: the economy
Matt Spetalnick and David Brunnstrom | April 18, 2026

"Summary
- Iran's control of Strait of Hormuz exposed US economic vulnerability, raising domestic pressure on Trump
- Allies and rivals question US reliability, analysts warn of long-term economic, geopolitical fallout
- Russia and China could draw lessons about US pressure points ... "

{PAYWALL} https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-war-has-revealed-trumps-pressure-...

David Frum (The Atlantic) @davidfrum | 8:09 AM · Apr 18, 2026:
"How to assess the progress (or not) of Trump's Iran war when so much the administration says seems to be intentional market manipulation to benefit insider traders? "

"Is Anybody Actually Winning Trump’s Iran War? | The David Frum Show" (55:33)
Filmed on April 13 for release on 15th, 2026
Guest is Trump's former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser Matt Pottinger.

08:50 {Iran, Strait of Hormuz, Pottinger, dueling blockades, price of oil}
17:45 {The China Angle}
23:00 {The Asian Angle}
30:50 {Russia cashes in}
33:35 {Drone War lesson}
37:36 {Iran War End Game Questions}
45:50 {Why Coalitions Matter}

https://x.com/davidfrum/status/2045474786843734216
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lvm77qS6mYc

This Isn’t Just Trump’s War on Iran. Both Parties Paved the Way for Disaster (truthout)

For over 20 years, a number of prominent Democratic leaders — and in some cases, large majorities of congressional Democrats overall — have helped pave the groundwork for Trump’s war by issuing exaggerated and alarmist statements about Iran’s supposed danger to the region, threatening the use of military force, and undermining diplomatic initiatives, sometimes even criticizing Republicans from the right...

Traders placed over $1bn in perfectly timed bets on the Iran war. What is going on? (Guardian)

Suspicious wagers on the US-Israel war in Iran are creating huge windfalls and raising concerns among lawmakers...

Israel’s “Black Wednesday” Massacre Leaves Lebanese Families Giving DNA to ID Loved Ones’ Remains
Alaa Serhal | April 17 2026

"... Last week, after Iran and the U.S. agreed to a ceasefire, Israel pressed on in its Lebanese front with a ferocious blitz of airstrikes. The toll was staggering, leaving demolished buildings and infrastructure, along with the attendant skyrocketing casualties — the violence rending people into unrecognizable forms.

... After the Iran–U.S. truce, Israel launched more than 100 strikes on Lebanon in just 10 minutes, with the Israeli government taking to social media to brag about its assault. The latest round of hostilities between with Israel had already brought weeks of ravages to Lebanon, but last week’s onslaught, dubbed “Black Wednesday” by the Lebanese, razed densely populated neighborhoods in the capital. At least 357 were killed and more than 1,000 were injured, according to the health ministry. ..."

https://theintercept.com/2026/04/17/lebanon-israel-black-wednesday-bombing-id-dn...

Has there been any outcry in US about destruction of South Lebanon crucifix? I was hoping it might loosen support for US funding of Israel's offensive weapons. Sad to see, but worse I think that Israeli government seems to be ready to punish responsible soldier more severely for its destruction than we have seen for crimes against Gazans, West Bank civilians, and Lebanese and Iranian innocents ...

>111 margd: I didn't even hear about that. I just hear about villages razed, downtown Beirut devastated, and the usual atrocities that can't be atrocities because, of course, their victims are not regarded as humans. But yes, there is a significant segment of Americans who would be considerably more worked up about someone destroying a crucifix, while writing off the rest as sad things that just happen and ought to be ignored.

US spending on ‘reckless’ Iran war could have saved 87m lives, says UN (Guardian)

The $2bn (£1.5bn) a week that Donald Trump was spending on his reckless war in Iran could have funded saving more than 87 million lives, the head of the UN’s humanitarian agency, Tom Fletcher, said on Monday. He also warned the normalisation of violent language, such as threatening to bomb Iran back to the stone ages, was very dangerous since it encourages every “wannabe autocrat” to use similar threats and tactics, including the destruction of civilians and civilian infrastructure...

>111 margd:, >112 davidgn: Outrage over Israeli soldier's vandalism of Jesus statue in Lebanon (BBC)

The act of destroying a religious image is symbolic of Israel's oppression of Christians, but as you say, it is no excuse for ignoring the egregious persecution and human rights abuses being carried out daily by Israeli forces against human beings of all creeds and none.

>111 margd: contd.

Netanyahu says Israeli soldier pictured hitting Jesus statue in Lebanon will face "harsh disciplinary action"
Frank Andrews | April 20, 2026

"...Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Monday that he was "stunned and saddened" by a photo of an Israeli soldier striking a statue of Jesus Christ with a sledgehammer in southern Lebanon. "I condemn the act in the strongest terms" ..., adding that military authorities would take "harsh disciplinary action against the offender. ..."We express regret for the incident and for any hurt this has caused to believers in Lebanon and around the world" ...

The Israel army said it was working with the community in Lebanon to "restore the statue to its place," adding that it is "operating to dismantle the terrorist infrastructure established by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon, and has no intention of harming civilian infrastructure, including religious buildings or religious symbols." {margd: every last bridge to south, however ...}

... the fallen statue was in the Christian village of Debl, near the Israeli border in an area IDF forces have occupied for several weeks, forcing the evacuation of tens of thousands of residents ...

Mike Huckabee, the U.S. Ambassador to Israel, said in a post Monday on X that "swift, severe & public consequences are needed." ..."

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/idf-jesus-statue-israel-netanyahu-lebanon-soldier-p...
-------------------------------------------------

Outcry grows over Israeli soldier smashing Jesus statue in Lebanon
Ali Harb | 20 Apr 2026

"Some of Donald Trump’s former MAGA allies denounce the desecration of Christian religious symbol by Israeli soldier. {Tucker Carlson. Marjorie Taylor Greene. Matt Gaetz.}

... “The outrage shouldn’t be about a destroyed statue of Jesus – abhorrent as that is,” Palestinian pastor Munther Isaac wrote in a social media post on Monday.

“The real outrage is the targeting of civilians, the assault on human dignity, the devastation in Gaza and Lebanon. War is evil. We need Accountability.” ..."

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/4/20/outcry-grows-over-israeli-soldier-smash...

Rabbi who boasts of bulldozing Palestinian homes will light torch for Israel’s national day

Human rights campaigners say honour for Avraham Zarbiv endorses ethnic cleansing and war crimes...

What went wrong in Israel? A genocide scholar examines ‘what Zionism became’

In his new book, Omer Bartov tracks how a liberatory strand of Zionism transformed into an extremist ideology that he sees as responsible for genocide in Gaza...

Both from the Guardian

>115 John5918: After beastly treatment, Ireland and the Choctaw Nation emerged with empathy intact ... South Africa ... Others, no doubt. To their eternal credit.
------------------------------------------------------

The Choctaw Nation’s Gift to the Irish
Judy Allen | March 16, 2018

"In 1847, only 14 years after their long, sad march along the Trail of Tears ended, Choctaw people in Oklahoma learned of the Irish famine. With great empathy, Choctaw individuals made donations totaling $170, the equivalent of several thousand dollars today, for the relief of the Irish poor. Here Judy Allen, historic projects office of the Choctaw Nation of Oklahoma, describes “an act that shaped tribal culture” and the lasting friendship it created between the two nations ...

In 1995, Irish President Mary Robinson, later UN Commissioner for Human Rights, ... thank(ed) the Choctaws for their generosity toward the Irish, a people with whom she noted their only link was “a common humanity, a common sense of another people suffering as the Choctaw Nation had suffered when being removed from their tribal land." ... "

https://www.smithsonianmag.com/blogs/national-museum-american-indian/2018/03/16/...

Lebanon’s Black Wednesday (World Peace Foundation)

In just ten minutes on April 8 – a day now known as “Black Wednesday” – the Israeli air force struck approximately 100 targets across Lebanon hours after President Donald Trump suspended bombing Iran... More than 350 men, women and children died in the 10-minute bloodbath across Lebanon. More than 1,200 were wounded. Others are buried under tons of masonry. Israel has named only six of its victims – five commanders and the nephew and “personal secretary” of Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem... Israel also claimed, as it always does, that it took steps to “minimize harm to civilians”. In my area, Ain Mreisse, there was much harm – but no steps. Not one. At 2.14 pm on Black Wednesday, the eight-story Hamad building in Air Mreisse, next door to the first apartment I rented more than 40 years ago, was hit without warning. Half of the building collapsed, like a house of cards; the other half will be demolished... Bloody Wednesday took the pessimism many Lebanese feel about their future close to rock bottom. “It’s the era of Israel,” a neighbor said. “They will kill you whatever you do. And what is the international community doing? Nothing.” Some Israelis feel the same. “Israel … has been conducting annihilation and destruction in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria,” Amira Hass wrote in Haaretz on April 10, “without the world rearing up to stop it”...

West Bank Horror Story
Charlie Angus / The Resistance | Apr 22, 2026
https://substack.com/

“There used to be an unwritten rule that women and children were off limits.
That completely does not exist anymore.” — Human rights activist (Tel Aviv)

"The image of an Israeli soldier using a sledgehammer to destroy the face of the crucified Christ caused international outrage.

President Netanyahu promised to punish the two soldiers involved. He assured the world they would put the cross back up — just to make things nice again.

This incident happened as Israel was pulverizing villages in Lebanon, dropping white phosphorus on fields, and leaving these ancient settlements as uninhabitable waste.

But Netanyahu made no promises to deal with IDF soldiers going through the abandoned houses, taking selfies while putting on the underwear of women who had fled the scene in terror. Or the soldiers hosting feasts in homes they invaded, having stolen the family’s food. Or the five soldiers who were let off after being caught on film raping a Palestinian detainee.

Just business as usual for the IDF.

Archbishop Vincenzo Paglia condemned the attack on the crucifix as part of a larger pattern of destroying the culture of the people in order to destroy their spirit:

“What is the real problem today? The risk is that a lack of culture infects every other dimension of life. Religious fundamentalism, or even civic or political fundamentalism, all share the same root: a total absence of culture. What matters is imposing oneself through force and violence.”

He then went on to say that Jesus had roots in Lebanon as well.

“I would like to point out to Benjamin Netanyahu that Jesus himself went to Tyre and Sidon, in southern Lebanon. But he did not go there to kill; he went to multiply bread, to heal, to perform miracles – not to destroy.”

But Netanyahu has his own biblical stories to share.

Israeli Holocaust historian Omer Bartov pointed out in The New York Times that as the army poured into Gaza, Netanyahu stated, “Remember what Amalek did to you.”

It was a biblical evocation of the Israelites to “kill alike men and women, infants and sucklings” of those they came across. Bartov wrote this in a July 2025 essay entitled “I’m a Genocide Scholar, I Know It When I See it.”

He described himself as a former IDF soldier and the child of two Zionist settlers. As a historian of the Holocaust, he said the genocidal intent of the Israeli state in Gaza was inescapable:

“Israel’s actions could be understood only as the implementation of the expressed intent to make the Gaza Strip uninhabitable for its Palestinian population. My inescapable conclusion has become that Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people.”

Despite indictments by the International Criminal Court and multiple international findings of genocide, the world did little to sanction the Netanyahu regime. This has emboldened the IDF to apply similar terror strategies in Lebanon and the West Bank.

A new human rights report on the treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank reveals horrifying levels of violence and intimidation. In 2025, Israelis destroyed over 1659 buildings and forced over 2100 people to leave their homes.

Bedouin herding families faced increasing threat, violence and coordinated attacks by armed settler gangs, military reservists and state security.

But now the threat is being increasingly sexualized.

The report identified increasing numbers of home invasions and sexual assaults. People being forced to strip naked and be filmed for blackmail is another tactic. Settlers stalk and grope women who try to go into the fields or the markets.

There are documented cases of Israeli settlers exposing themselves to children.

Sexual violence against detainees is supported at the highest level of the Israeli establishment with Netanyahu himself cheering the acquittal of soldiers charged with rape. In the West Bank, the sexual violence is used against shepherds and farmers. The report documented two 15-year-old boys who were stripped and urinated on. Photos of their abuse were shared online. In another case, a father was violently sexually assaulted in front of his children.

Milena Ansari of Physicians for Human Rights told The Guardian:
“Israeli officials are effectively green-lighting the use of sexual violence. There is a culture of accepting sexualized assault against Palestinians. There was a discussion in the Knesset about whether or not it is OK to rape a Palestinian. Even the prime minister didn’t say that Israel opposes raping detainees.”

The pattern here is to terrorize the people and break their spirit. These are crimes against an entire people.

Former Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert called on the International Criminal Court to save Palestinians from “Jewish terrorists,” but his call has gone unnoticed in the West.

Despite some nice-sounding words from Western governments about human rights, no concerted effort has been made to pressure Israel to stop its war on the Palestinian and Lebanese people.

No serious threats of boycott or sanctions against the country have been put in place.

Omer Bartov warns that this failure to act will have long-term consequences:

“The continued denial of this designation of genocide by states, international organizations and legal and scholarly experts will cause unmitigated damage not just to the people of Gaza and Israel but also to the system of international law established in the wake of the horrors of the Holocaust, designed to prevent such atrocities from happening ever again. It is a threat to the very foundations of the moral order on which we all depend.”

Bartov has just published a book, "What Went Wrong", on how the Zionist project to rescue Jews from Europe turned into a policy of abuse, torture and genocide.

It is being published in nine languages, but the genocide scholar’s work will not be published in Israel. There is apparently little interest in a country that has embraced terror and torture as a national policy. As for the international community taking a stand?

Don’t hold your breath."

In the middle of a war, in the middle of a naval action, the Secretary of the Navy is departing. Asst Secretary is acting. (!!!!).

Related?

Was Donald Trump 'blocked' from using the nuclear codes against Iran? • FRANCE 24 English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1QucZ4tIXlg
(citing Larry Johnson)

RUMINT, but worth circulating whether it pans out or not. Clarifies the mind.

WH FREAKS After Intel Reveals Iran's Military Capacity To Fight Back (Breaking Points, citing -- oddly, at this point -- CBS, where there may still be life in the occupied newsroom).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dMFsJxDZ8po

Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem denounces settler encroachments (Vatican News)

The Latin Patriarchate of Jerusalem has described recent Israeli settler encroachments and land damage on its property in Tayasir as "a clear violation of Church properties", affirming that "protecting Church endowment properties is a red line", as authorities commit to address the situation...

Lebanese Christians rejoice over new Christ statue brought by Italian soldiers (OSV)

Lebanese Christians in Debel are celebrating the gift of a new statue of Jesus on the cross after a recent act of desecration by two Israeli soldiers drew global outrage... A video posted on Facebook showed blue-helmet UNIFIL soldiers from Italy carrying the statue encased in a white cloth which they tenderly removed as one soldier could be seen planting a kiss on the head of Jesus on the crucifix. It was then taken inside the town’s church where it was displayed before the congregation and later erected outside by the townspeople. A picture of a UNIFIL soldier can be seen standing in front of the crucifix in prayer. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni thanked the Italian soldiers, saying: “I thank Commander Diodato Abagnara and the entire Italian contingent of UNIFIL for their decision to donate a new crucifix to the Lebanese village of Debel.” “The images of the statue’s delivery to the community and its placement, in the same spot where the statue was destroyed a few days earlier by an IDF soldier, fill my heart and convey a powerful message of hope, dialogue, and peace,” she said...

Iran didn’t have a nuclear weapon before this war. But you can see why it would develop one now (Guardian)

If lawless aggression by ‘might is right’ nuclear-armed powers spreads unchecked, what other option do middle-ranking countries have?...

>120 davidgn: The story has evolved.
https://www.youtube.com/live/LbWGNOSYBbM?si=KvxxXI8yurQXC_G9&t=1027

Starts about a minute in from that point.

Progressives will find these people, who share their views on the current war, interesting allies.
https://www.unz.com/

"The Israeli military intercepted a flotilla of boats carrying humanitarian aid bound for Gaza in international waters near Greece, Israeli officials and the activist group behind the mission said on Thursday."

- The New York Times | April 30, 2026, Facebook
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/30/world/middleeast/israel-gaza-aid-flotilla.htm...

Mirroring Gaza, Israel is destroying towns and villages in southern Lebanon
Kat Lonsdorf, Jawad Rizkallah | April 30, 2026

"... Israel has been very public about the controlled demolitions its military has been carrying out in many of the 55 Lebanese towns and villages it now occupies in the south. The Israeli military has been publishing videos on social media and in releases to the press showing entire neighborhoods eviscerated in seconds, the concrete homes and shops erupting into clouds of dust at the push of a detonator.

Israel says it's destroying Hezbollah infrastructure. And that the goal is to create what Israel calls a "buffer zone" along its border, in order to keep Hezbollah from attacking its northern residents.

But those demolitions — along with widespread Israeli airstrikes throughout the past two months — have also significantly destroyed civilian infrastructure. Such destruction is considered to be a violation of international law, and a potential war crime..."

https://www.npr.org/2026/04/30/g-s1-119210/lebanon-israel-war
--------------------------------------------------

UN experts condemn Israel’s unprecedented bombing in Lebanon after ceasefire announcement, demand immediate halt to hostilities (Press release)
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights | 15 April 2026

...“We are witnessing the continuing utmost contempt for the international legal order, for diplomacy, and above all for the lives of civilians and the environment in Lebanon,” the independent experts said. “Israel has chosen the very moment a ceasefire was announced – one that its Pakistani mediator stated included Lebanon – to unleash the largest coordinated wave of strikes on the country since 1980.”

“This is not self-defence. It is a blatant violation of the UN Charter, a deliberate destruction of prospects for peace, and an affront to multilateralism and the UN-based international order,” they said ...

https://www.ohchr.org/en/press-releases/2026/04/un-experts-condemn-israels-unpre...

Col. Larry Wilkerson: Iran ROCKS Two U.S. Destroyers – 30 Refueling Jets Airborne! WAR IS HERE
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UPreelfuU4

On Iran, Trump Has Backed Himself — and Much of the World — Into a Corner (truthout)

The same kind of US hubris that led to the tragic wars in Vietnam and Iraq is manifesting itself with Iran today. U.S. efforts to force an end to the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz by attempting to escort a few U.S.-flagged ships through the Iranian closure will not only fail to relieve the worsening global fuel crisis and disruption of supply chains, it risks a resumption of full-scale war...

>129 John5918: Just saw gas $5 per gallon. THAT will get American public's attention. Owner of a small hotel told us people not travelling as much. Heard several discussions on the cost of gasoline. Some of the economic damage will be a long time to recover but Republicans will not be able to ignore Trump's folly much longer, I think?

>130 margd:

Still pretty cheap by global standards - that's about what we've been paying in Kenya for ages before the recent price increases - but I know that in the US they're used to ridiculously low prices for fuel. Yesterday my wife had to spend more than an hour visiting several fuel stations to get any petrol at all, although diesel was still readily available.

I wonder how many Americans know just how heavily their gasoline is subsidized. Particularly the ones who shriek the loudest about the evils of "socialism".

🚨Saudi Arabia Stops US Military Support, Ends US Operation Freedom | Larry Johnson
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TffGMWO4fvM
"Technical difficulties"

0:00 Introduction
1:01 Iran Negotiations: Why a Deal Is Unlikely
5:01 Gulf States: Losing Faith in U.S. Security Guarantees
9:59 False Intelligence & Iran's True Situation
15:53 Energy Prices & the Gasoline Shock
18:58 Futures vs. Physical Oil: A Market Disconnect
26:56 Breaking: Saudi Arabia Bans U.S. Operations from Its Territory
32:00 De-Dollarisation & the Shift in Global Financial Power
38:00 The Economic Tsunami: Fertiliser, Food & Cascading Inflation
43:00 Path to Resolution: What Iran Actually Wants
44:49 Israel in Panic & the U.S. Missile Inventory Crisis

Chas Freeman: US-Israel Divorce, End of NATO & Sea Power
Ambassador Chas Freeman discusses how the relevance of sea power decline in terms of controlling transportation corridors and energy, while the relative decline of the US will result in the end of NATO and US-Israel divorce.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1FnZp1N5po

And now, morning after with the Ambassador.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_HTvSIymOg8

I assume intent is to frighten Iranians. With a malevolent whackadoodle at the helm, moves like this scare ME!

Pentagon reveals location of nuclear-armed submarine after Trump rejects Iran proposal
Filip Timotija | May 12, 2026

"The Pentagon revealed the location of a U.S. Navy nuclear-armed submarine in a rare move a day after President Trump rejected the latest peace proposal from Iran.

The Ohio-class ballistic missile submarine arrived in Gibraltar, a British territory on Spain’s south coast, on Sunday, the U.S. Sixth Fleet said on Monday ...

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/pentagon-reveals-location-of-nuclear-arm...

>134 davidgn: Wall, meet writing. Also, easier to clear out Gaza / Palestine / Lebanon without complications of American money?

Netanyahu Moves to Split with US as Iran Crisis Sends Oil Prices Soaring
Lydia Opee | May 11, 2026

"In an interview aired on CBS’s 60 Minutes on May 10, 2026, Netanyahu told correspondent Major Garrett that he wants to reduce American financial support to zero.

“I want to draw down to zero the American financial support, the financial component of the military cooperation that we have. ... Because we receive $3.8 billion a year {under a 2016 memorandum of understanding that runs through 2028}. And I think that it’s time that we weaned ourselves from the remaining military support.”

He added that the process should begin now rather than wait for future U.S. congressional decisions ...

https://thekenyatimes.com/world-news/netanyahu-split-with-us/

We Analyzed Thousands of News Articles: Here’s the Proof of Pro-Israel Bias in Mainstream Media
Adam Johnson | May 12 2026

U.S. media outlets were crucial in helping Israel sell the Gaza genocide to the American public.

How to Sell a Genocide: The Media’s Complicity in the Destruction of Gaza by Adam H. Johnson

- Israel’s “Right to Defend Itself”
- “Human Shields” to Justify Killing Palestinians
- Emotive Words About Killing Civilians
- Using “Hamas-Run” to Downplay Palestinian Deaths
- Sympathetic Victims: Gaza vs. Ukraine
- Antisemitism vs. Islamophobia
- Campus Antisemitism vs. Killing Children in Gaza

https://theintercept.com/2026/05/12/gaza-media-coverage-israel-bias/

Israeli nationalists chant ‘death to Arabs’ in violent Jerusalem Day march

Israeli nationalists chanted “death to the Arabs”, “may your villages burn” and “Gaza is a graveyard” in a state-sponsored march through Jerusalem to mark the anniversary of the city’s capture and annexation...

Israel says it will sue New York Times over article on sexual abuse of Palestinian prisoners

Media law experts cast doubt on viability of a defamation lawsuit promised by Netanyahu over Nicholas Kristof essay...

The backlash to revelations of sexual torture of Palestinian prisoners aims to raise the cost of speaking out

Israel’s response to recent New York Times reporting detailing the horrific sexual violence inflicted on detainees seeks to silence those who assert the basic fact of Palestinian humanity...

All from the Guardian

‘It fails under testing, but it’s what we have’: ban forces Palestinians to make their own cement from rubble
Mohamed Solaimane | 18 May 2026

"With Israel blocking imports of building materials, those rebuilding in Gaza are recycling ruins to make new homes ..."

https://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2026/may/18/gaza-cement-dual-use-...

"We'll only have to face Iran again" reminded me of domino theory from Viet Nam era ...

Rep. Adam Kinzinger | May20,2026
https://www.facebook.com/RepKinzinger

"... I have seen the military adapt before, often brilliantly. But I’ve also seen what happens when industry capture and procurement inertia decide they would prefer not to. The Iran fight is going to tell us which version of ourselves we are.

3. We are currently in the worst of all possible options.
This is the part I find hardest to write.
Right now, we are nowhere. We are unwilling to accept that the war should not have happened in the first place. And we are unwilling to commit the power necessary to actually finish it. So we are sitting in a middle ground that gets us a decaying economy, a wobbly ceasefire, a Strait that is functionally hostage to Tehran’s mood, and no clear theory of how this ends.

There are basically two honest paths from here. Neither is good. Both are better than where we are.

Path one: back away. If we choose to back down and call it, we should be honest about what that means. We will have empowered Iran. We will have shown that we can be outlasted. They will consolidate their grip on the Strait of Hormuz. We can, and should, encourage investment in alternative energy routes out of the Middle East — pipelines, LNG hubs, alternative chokepoints — and over time make Hormuz matter less than it does today. But “less” is not “zero.” That chokepoint will remain strategically important for a long time. And in five to ten years, when Iran is stronger, more entrenched, and more confident, we will almost certainly have to confront them again. Walking away does not end the problem. It defers it, and lets the enemy choose the conditions for round two.

Path two: recommit. If we choose to recommit American power to actually achieving a strategic outcome — whether that is regime collapse, a permanent reopening of the Strait, or something else worth naming out loud — we have to be honest that this is not a clean air campaign anymore. It means a longer haul fight. It means more American casualties. It means damaged infrastructure, here and there. And it almost certainly means ground troops in some form. Not a full invasion necessarily, but boots somewhere doing something dangerous.

I’ll say what I believe: the United States has more than enough power to achieve a serious strategic objective against Iran. We are not militarily incapable. The question has never been “can we.” It has always been “is it worth it, and are we willing to do what it takes.”

Here is the lesson I wish we had learned by now, after Iraq, after Afghanistan, after Libya, after every half-finished war of the last quarter century: do not engage in war unless you are willing to do what is necessary. Otherwise, do not engage.

I am, and have always been, a massive air power proponent. I flew. I believe in what air power can do. But I have never, not once, seen air power alone win a war. It is a tool. It is an extraordinary tool. It is not an end state. Pretending otherwise is how you end up exactly where we are right now — strikes that feel decisive in the moment, a ceasefire that doesn’t hold, and an adversary that gets to reconstitute on its own timeline.

So what do I actually think we should do?
I’ll be honest with you, because I think you deserve honesty more than performance.
I don’t know.

... What I worry about most is the easy answer. The easy answer right now is “just end it, take the L, move on.” It feels mature. It feels restrained. And it might be exactly the wrong call. Because if we take that L now, we are very likely going to have to confront Iran again — when they are stronger, when the Strait is more militarized, when their proxies are more capable, and when my son is 18.

I would go. I have always been willing to go. But I do not want him to have to go because we decided in 2026 to defer the problem.

So if I were in charge, and I had inherited this mess — and let’s be clear, it would be a mess inherited, not chosen — I would probably lean toward reengaging in a way designed to compel either a collapse of the regime or a durable reopening of the Strait. Not posturing. Not symbolic strikes. A real strategy, with real objectives, communicated clearly to the American people, with a defined definition of success.

But.
I do not trust this administration to execute that war in a way that actually succeeds. I do not trust them to define the objective. I do not trust them to resource it. I do not trust them to be honest with the country about what it will cost. I do not trust them to stay the course past the next news cycle. And I do not trust them to listen to the people in uniform who actually know what they are talking about.

So I am stuck where a lot of you are stuck. I trust my instincts on what should be done. I do not trust the people who would be doing it.
That is the brutal truth of this moment. Not the corruption stories, not the vanity projects, not the election noise. This. A war we should never have started, that we are now neither winning nor ending, with an adversary that is using the time we are giving them, while the people who would have to lead us through it are the last people I’d want at the controls ... "

Senate advances bill aimed at ending Iran war as Cassidy, after primary loss, flips to support it
Stephen Groves | May 19, 2026

"... Since Trump ordered the attack on Iran at the end of February, Democrats have forced repeated votes on war powers resolutions that would require him to either gain congressional approval for the war or withdraw troops. Republicans had been able to muster the votes to reject those proposals, but Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy — fresh off a primary election loss in which Trump endorsed his opponent — switched sides to deliver a crucial vote to pass the legislation..."

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senate-advances-bill-aimed-at-ending-iran-...

House Pulls Vote to Halt Iran War
Megan Mineiro, Robert Jimison, and Michael Gold | May 21, 2026

"House Republicans on Thursday abruptly canceled a vote on a resolution directing President Trump to withdraw U.S. forces from Iran or win approval from Congress to continue the war, after it became clear they lacked the votes to defeat the measure.

... Speaker Mike Johnson ... has toiled to defeat efforts to challenge or limit the war in line with the president’s wishes, but is contending with growing wariness within his party as the midterm elections approach and the realities of his minuscule majority.

... The move came just days after a similar resolution moved ahead in the Senate ...

... It was the fourth time Democrats had sought to challenge Mr. Trump’s ability to wage war without congressional approval since he initiated the current conflict in late February, but with both chambers scheduled for a weeklong recess in observance of Memorial Day, they will have to wait until Congress returns in June."

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2026/05/21/us/trump-news#iran-war-powers-trump-meas...

All-Out War in Iran, That's What Netanyahu Needs /Alastair Crooke & Lt Col Daniel Davis
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jyVazLRejw8

Gaza flotilla activists allege abuse by Israeli forces while detained (BBC)

Pro-Palestinian activists who were deported after their Gaza-bound aid flotilla was intercepted in international waters by Israeli forces have alleged they were subjected to abuse while held in detention. Canada said it had received information detailing "appalling abuse" of its citizens, while Germany and Spain confirmed that a number of their citizens had injuries. The flotilla's organisers alleged there were "at least 15 cases of sexual assaults" while other people who were detained said they were beaten and mistreated... On Thursday, 422 people from 41 countries were deported by Israel. Many have since arrived home... Organisers of the Global Sumud Flotilla also said on Friday: "At least 15 cases of sexual assaults, including rape. Shot with rubber bullets at close range. Tens of people's bones broken"...

An indication that the US-Iran War is nearing conclusion?
Hints of what the future will look like for Iranian citizenry?

Internet Starts to Return in Iran After 3-Month Blackout
Matt Burgess & Lily Hay Newman | May 26, 2026

"... Iran’s Supreme National Security Council seemingly ordered the current internet shutdown at the end of February as the war with the US started. A different group formed by current Iranian president Masoud Pezeshkian—known as the Special Headquarters for Organizing and Governing the Country's Cyberspace—reportedly ordered connectivity restoration on Monday, though the move drew a legal challenge in Iran’s High Court. Nevertheless, the Iranian communications minister said that the reconnection would move forward per the president’s order, and that the process is underway to restore connectivity within 24 hours.

“What we are seeing now is an increase in traffic from Iran, but we need to wait and see the outcome of the power struggle,” {Amir Rashidi, a cybersecurity expert with the internet freedom organization Miaan Group} says. “Challenging the president’s order in court, given Iran’s political culture, was in a way a humiliation of Pezeshkian. So we should wait and see how this power struggle plays out.”

Regardless of the political gamemanship, experts have been predicting for months that continued authoritarian rule in Iran will mean more impact on the country’s digital freedoms. Some warn that the country may never fully reconnect globally. “I think it would be quite optimistic to think that internet connectivity in Iran will return to pre-January 8th levels of access, which was already subject to censorship,” Madory says ..."

https://www.wired.com/story/internet-in-iran-starts-to-return-after-3-month-blac...

>146 margd: Netanyahu still has cards. Any talk of a conclusion is premature.

Now, if this piece of intelligence pans out? That (with luck) might indeed conclude things.

Napolitano:
Pepe Escobar : Does Iran Have the Bomb? Part 1
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18iA0spc_-A

Larry Johnson : Does Iran Have the Bomb? Part 2
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yLSrunuWrns

Penny Wong says she believes Israeli soldiers sexually assaulted and abused Australian women after Gaza flotilla (Guardian)

The foreign affairs minister, Penny Wong, says she believes the Australian women who have alleged they were sexually assaulted and beaten by Israeli soldiers after being detained as part of a humanitarian flotilla attempting to bring aid to Gaza. Appearing at Senate estimates, Wong said the treatment of the Australian women was “unacceptable”, and the allegations they had subsequently made were “distressing”... Eleven Australians were part of the Global Sumud Flotilla, sailing from Mediterranean ports in an attempt to deliver food, medicine and baby formula to the war-ravaged Gaza Strip, blockaded by Israel... She said the Australian government had raised concerns with Israel over the treatment of flotilla sailors, and Israel’s refusal to grant Australian diplomats access to the Australians detained...

Blue Georgia @BlueGeorgia | 12:10 AM · Jun 6, 2026:
Susan Rice absolutely schools Bill Maher on Iran.
(2:54) https://x.com/BlueGeorgia/status/2063111383575585072

Israel says Gaza crossings closed until further notice after Iran missile attacks
Emanuel Fabian | 8 June 2026
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israel-says-gaza-crossings-closed-u...

Israel's long history of torture. Pretty dreadful. You've been warned.

Israel's Darkest Weapon | Al Jazeera Originals (57:42)
Al Jazeera English
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e3pApprHfrY