1margd
J. D. Vance Learns What Mike Pence Already Knows
David A. Graham | March 16, 2026
The vice president is realizing that signing on with Donald Trump might seem like a shortcut to the top, but it’s actually a guarantee of humiliation ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/03/vance-pence-trump/686412/
David A. Graham | March 16, 2026
The vice president is realizing that signing on with Donald Trump might seem like a shortcut to the top, but it’s actually a guarantee of humiliation ...
https://www.theatlantic.com/newsletters/2026/03/vance-pence-trump/686412/
2margd
JD Vance urged to invoke 25th Amendment against Trump
Giulia Carbonaro | March 23, 2026
"Journalist Scott McConnell, founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, has called on Vice President JD Vance to express his support for a transition of power based on the 25th Amendment.
“My advice to Vance: announce your support of {a} 25th amendment transition,” McConnell wrote on X on Sunday. “Say {Senator} Chris Murphy {a Democrat} or similar will be veep. Announce you will NOT be a candidate in 2028. Use your position, access to the media to explain why this is necessary. Don’t resign,” he added..."
Newsweek via https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-urged-to-invoke-25th-amendment-...
---------------------------------------------------
Scott McConnell @ScottMcConnell9 | 2:32 PM · Mar 22, 2026:
Co-founder of The American Conservative. Author Ex-Neocon.
https://x.com/ScottMcConnell9/status/2035786713247691094
"My advice to Vance: Announce your support of 25th amendment transition. Say Chris Murphy or similar will be veep. Announce you will NOT be a candidate in 2028. Use your position, access to the media to explain why this is necessary. Don't resign."
Giulia Carbonaro | March 23, 2026
"Journalist Scott McConnell, founding editor of The American Conservative magazine, has called on Vice President JD Vance to express his support for a transition of power based on the 25th Amendment.
“My advice to Vance: announce your support of {a} 25th amendment transition,” McConnell wrote on X on Sunday. “Say {Senator} Chris Murphy {a Democrat} or similar will be veep. Announce you will NOT be a candidate in 2028. Use your position, access to the media to explain why this is necessary. Don’t resign,” he added..."
Newsweek via https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/jd-vance-urged-to-invoke-25th-amendment-...
---------------------------------------------------
Scott McConnell @ScottMcConnell9 | 2:32 PM · Mar 22, 2026:
Co-founder of The American Conservative. Author Ex-Neocon.
https://x.com/ScottMcConnell9/status/2035786713247691094
"My advice to Vance: Announce your support of 25th amendment transition. Say Chris Murphy or similar will be veep. Announce you will NOT be a candidate in 2028. Use your position, access to the media to explain why this is necessary. Don't resign."
3MsMixte
Does anyone really expect that his cabinet members will go for the 25th Amendment? Pete Hegseth loves having all that power. He doesn't want to be tried for war crimes. The rest of the cabinet members have all committed crimes of one sort or another.
4margd
>3 MsMixte: No doubt. And Vance is no Pence ... Amazing to me, though, that prominent conservative voice issues such advice!
5margd
Polymarket @Polymarket | 9:50 AM · Mar 25, 2026:
BREAKING: JD Vance’s 2028 odds crash to an all-time low of 18%.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2036802974983364884/photo/2
----------------------------------------------------------
Vance odds of winning presidency in 2028 dropping but still leading Newsom, Rubio, AOC bets: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028
BREAKING: JD Vance’s 2028 odds crash to an all-time low of 18%.
https://x.com/Polymarket/status/2036802974983364884/photo/2
----------------------------------------------------------
Vance odds of winning presidency in 2028 dropping but still leading Newsom, Rubio, AOC bets: https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2028
6margd
Professor {Trevor} Poutine: "I'm going to need a source".
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1523846225593456
https://www.facebook.com/reel/1523846225593456
7alco261
>6 margd: If it wasn't for the fact of what we are seeing from the TDSers and Just Dumb Vance on a daily basis I wouldn't have believed such hateful rubbish could be uttered by anyone. Thanks for the link.
8timspalding
Vance's only chance at this point is to hold onto Trump as hard as he can, and hope Trump doesn't completely fuck things up—and Trump doesn't stab him in the back.
9kiparsky
>8 timspalding: Not sure that's going to help him much, honestly. First, the track record for vice presidents getting elected to the top chair is pretty weak, particularly for those without a lot of individual accomplishment. Second, Trump seems to be doing his level best to fuck things up for him. I can't think of a single MAGA sub-constituency that he hasn't alienated apart from maybe the KKK and their fellow travelers. Look at North Carolina - you just had an election there that amounted to Trump versus MAGA, and MAGA won.
I honestly don't think there's a path for Vance. Going straight MAGA doesn't look good for him, since Trump has kind of poisoned that well. His other option is to try to find a moderate/MAGA compromise, but then he's stepping into an argument with his past self. I feel sort of sorry for the dude - he thought he was being clever when he remade himself as a MAGgot, and now he's realizing that he's put himself in a bad hole.
I'm looking at what Maggie Greene has been doing, and it's an interesting comparison. She had a similar arc to Vance, but she's taken a hard turn and is now on a sort of "bitter experience" tour, where it looks like her pitch is carefully tuned to thread exactly that MAGA/moderate Republican needle that Vance can't manage. I'm not finding her pitch convincing, but I suspect that she's reaching the people she wants to reach. The only hope I see for Vance is to try to make the same maneuver. If he can manage to break with Trump - and with his own past self - on some of the issues that have driven Trump's influence into the toilet, then he's got a chance. But the trouble there is, he's not that good a politician. It's not an easy move, and I really don't think he can stick the landing, if he even thinks to try it.
I honestly don't think there's a path for Vance. Going straight MAGA doesn't look good for him, since Trump has kind of poisoned that well. His other option is to try to find a moderate/MAGA compromise, but then he's stepping into an argument with his past self. I feel sort of sorry for the dude - he thought he was being clever when he remade himself as a MAGgot, and now he's realizing that he's put himself in a bad hole.
I'm looking at what Maggie Greene has been doing, and it's an interesting comparison. She had a similar arc to Vance, but she's taken a hard turn and is now on a sort of "bitter experience" tour, where it looks like her pitch is carefully tuned to thread exactly that MAGA/moderate Republican needle that Vance can't manage. I'm not finding her pitch convincing, but I suspect that she's reaching the people she wants to reach. The only hope I see for Vance is to try to make the same maneuver. If he can manage to break with Trump - and with his own past self - on some of the issues that have driven Trump's influence into the toilet, then he's got a chance. But the trouble there is, he's not that good a politician. It's not an easy move, and I really don't think he can stick the landing, if he even thinks to try it.
10margd
Vance's path to 2028 election, if any, would have to include a short stint as President -- through impeachment & removal of Trump, or 25th Amendment, if, say, Trump has major stroke? I suspect Project 2025 folks prefer Vance over Rubio, so might not be averse to 25th if that's their man's only chance?
Meanwhile, Trump named Vance as his lead negotiator with Iran, "steering U.S. efforts to end a war he'd been concerned about waging in the first place". Why not Rubio, I wonder? https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks
Meanwhile, Trump named Vance as his lead negotiator with Iran, "steering U.S. efforts to end a war he'd been concerned about waging in the first place". Why not Rubio, I wonder? https://www.axios.com/2026/03/27/vance-iran-peace-talks
12kiparsky
>10 margd: I wouldn't be surprised if there was a coalition willing to try to invoke the 25th to get the incumbency for Vance, but the way section 4 is worded is sufficiently vague that if Trump were able to object, he'd be able to drag it out far enough that the gesture would be meaningless. So it could happen, but only if Trump were willing to have it happen (or actually incapacitated) but not willing to simply resign. Maybe, I suppose. But then Vance owns all of the mess that Trump has left, with not a lot of time to clean it up. So if that were going to happen, I'd expect to see it around next January - just after the two-year mark, so as to give Vance two terms, but with enough time to make a good show of trying to make things better.
If I thought Trump gave a damn about Vance's chances of winning, I could see it happening.
If I thought Trump gave a damn about Vance's chances of winning, I could see it happening.
13margd
>11 timspalding: No, not at all ... and here he was in the "lead":
Vance or Rubio? CPAC debates a Republican Party after Trump
Steve Contorno, Jeff Simon | 28 March 2026
"... The growing comfort with Rubio among conservatives was captured in CPAC’s annual straw poll of potential 2028 contenders. After barely registering in the informal survey last year, 35% of attendees at this year’s event said they wanted him to be the party’s next nominee, according to results released Saturday.
Rubio trailed only Vice President JD Vance, who won the CPAC straw poll for the second time with 53%, albeit with less support than in 2025, when he won 61%.
... {Texas Senator Ted} Cruz, though, didn’t get a home-court advantage in the CPAC poll. His support registered at 1%.
Nor did the event’s final speaker, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., find much interest in any future political ambitions. His support in the poll was 0%.
In fact, no one outside of Rubio and Vance surpassed 2% in the survey, which included about 1,600 participants. Many are already looking ahead to a Vance-Rubio ticket ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/28/politics/cpac-straw-poll-jd-vance
Vance or Rubio? CPAC debates a Republican Party after Trump
Steve Contorno, Jeff Simon | 28 March 2026
"... The growing comfort with Rubio among conservatives was captured in CPAC’s annual straw poll of potential 2028 contenders. After barely registering in the informal survey last year, 35% of attendees at this year’s event said they wanted him to be the party’s next nominee, according to results released Saturday.
Rubio trailed only Vice President JD Vance, who won the CPAC straw poll for the second time with 53%, albeit with less support than in 2025, when he won 61%.
... {Texas Senator Ted} Cruz, though, didn’t get a home-court advantage in the CPAC poll. His support registered at 1%.
Nor did the event’s final speaker, Secretary of Health and Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr., find much interest in any future political ambitions. His support in the poll was 0%.
In fact, no one outside of Rubio and Vance surpassed 2% in the survey, which included about 1,600 participants. Many are already looking ahead to a Vance-Rubio ticket ..."
https://www.cnn.com/2026/03/28/politics/cpac-straw-poll-jd-vance
14timspalding
>13 margd:
If things go south completely on Iran, then I think we'll have a more competitive race. Lots of people who polled at 2% in a straw poll two+ years before the election, still ended up winning.
If things go south completely on Iran, then I think we'll have a more competitive race. Lots of people who polled at 2% in a straw poll two+ years before the election, still ended up winning.
15timspalding
But if things go south on Iran, I don't think a Republican is winning the Presidency next. I regret this, because it would be a positive result, but I really don't want Iran to turn into more of a disaster than it is now. So far, at least, US deaths have been pretty restricted. Putting troops in Iran itself is likely to change that.
16kiparsky
>15 timspalding: Do you honestly see any way Trump doesn't send troops in at this point?
17davidgn
>16 kiparsky: I sure as hell don't. Special Forces are magic, right?
The useful recent commentators for this war are catalogued in the Israel thread. If you actually want to understand where everyone stands, start here:
https://www.youtube.com/live/VzfqtjAIkJA?si=Xpuc50pcQxeBkcxj&t=801
>15 timspalding: There is no "if."
The useful recent commentators for this war are catalogued in the Israel thread. If you actually want to understand where everyone stands, start here:
https://www.youtube.com/live/VzfqtjAIkJA?si=Xpuc50pcQxeBkcxj&t=801
>15 timspalding: There is no "if."
18LolaWalser
I don't think a Republican is winning the Presidency next. I regret this, because it would be a positive result,
Wait, what? How would a Republican winning the Presidency next be a positive result? Positive for what, for whom, in what sense?
Wait, what? How would a Republican winning the Presidency next be a positive result? Positive for what, for whom, in what sense?
19ljbryant
>18 LolaWalser: You left off the context of the quote -- "But if things go south on Iran..."
I read this as, things going south in Iran would mean a Republican is unlikely to win the Presidency next. The Republican not winning would be a positive result, but for that to happen, Iran would have to get WORSE, and that's bad and regrettable.
I read this as, things going south in Iran would mean a Republican is unlikely to win the Presidency next. The Republican not winning would be a positive result, but for that to happen, Iran would have to get WORSE, and that's bad and regrettable.
20LolaWalser
>19 ljbryant:
No, I understand very well that Tim doesn't want Iran to "get worse" -- he makes it clear enough with "but I really don't want Iran to turn into more of a disaster than it is now."
But you are right that I have probably misunderstood nevertheless. At least I hope I misunderstood.
No, I understand very well that Tim doesn't want Iran to "get worse" -- he makes it clear enough with "but I really don't want Iran to turn into more of a disaster than it is now."
But you are right that I have probably misunderstood nevertheless. At least I hope I misunderstood.
21timspalding
I very much want to see Republicans lose the next election, both Congressional and Presidential. This would certainly happen if things goes badly there. But I'm not cheering that on, because I don't want to see more pointless death and destruction, Iranian or American.
23margd
There had to be a book, right?
Kennedy grandson slams JD Vance's religion book with 13 words, "As Jesus famously said…"
Lisandra Gomez-Tate | 31 March 2026
"... According to the book blurb for Communion. Finding My Way back to Faith {released on June 16 through HarperCollins}: “Picking up in some ways where Hillbilly Elegy left off, Communion recounts how Vance’s pursuit of material privileges ultimately led him into a secular wilderness.”
The book also “reveals how JD Vance regained his faith and discusses his conversion to Catholicism, how his faith guides his work in public life, and how it shapes his thoughts about the future.” ..."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kennedy-grandson-slams-jd-vance-s-religi...
Kennedy grandson slams JD Vance's religion book with 13 words, "As Jesus famously said…"
Lisandra Gomez-Tate | 31 March 2026
"... According to the book blurb for Communion. Finding My Way back to Faith {released on June 16 through HarperCollins}: “Picking up in some ways where Hillbilly Elegy left off, Communion recounts how Vance’s pursuit of material privileges ultimately led him into a secular wilderness.”
The book also “reveals how JD Vance regained his faith and discusses his conversion to Catholicism, how his faith guides his work in public life, and how it shapes his thoughts about the future.” ..."
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/kennedy-grandson-slams-jd-vance-s-religi...
24MsMixte
>23 margd: He has a very warped view of his faith if it 'guides his work in public life'.
26timspalding
Critics on other social media are hitting his choice of cover-image—a VERY Protestant church for a book about conversion to the Catholic church. It goes with his general choice to play up his religious conversion while downplaying the Catholic angle. (A lot of Evangelicals don't think Catholics are Christians in the first place.) I'm not too worried about the photo—authors generally get input, but they don't pick their covers. They do, however, choose to do what Vance did, giving a speech about the "ordo Amoris" that so completely misrepresented Catholic teaching about love and charity that the Pope himself called him out on it!
27margd
Jay in Kyiv @JayinKyiv | 8:54 AM · Apr 7, 2026:
American in Ukraine
"Likely a statement drafted in the Kremlin, JD Vance says almighty "Ukrainian intelligence" is rigging elections in both the US and Hungary."
(Video, 0:15) https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2041499829365305563
American in Ukraine
"Likely a statement drafted in the Kremlin, JD Vance says almighty "Ukrainian intelligence" is rigging elections in both the US and Hungary."
(Video, 0:15) https://x.com/JayinKyiv/status/2041499829365305563
28margd
Headquarters @HQNewsNow | 9:25 AM · Apr 7, 2026:
News you can use
"JD Vance doubles down on Trump’s new post threatening “a whole civilization will die tonight” and implies Trump might use nuclear weapons"
(Video, 0:37) https://x.com/HQNewsNow/status/2041507566451130766
News you can use
"JD Vance doubles down on Trump’s new post threatening “a whole civilization will die tonight” and implies Trump might use nuclear weapons"
(Video, 0:37) https://x.com/HQNewsNow/status/2041507566451130766
29margd
JD Vance: "Will you stand against the bureaucrats in Brussels? Will you stand for western civilization? Will you stand for freedom, truth, and the God of our fathers? Then, my friends, go to the polls and stand for Viktor Orban!"
{Video 0:57} https://x.com/atrupar/status/2041549460199686359
- Aaron Rupar @atrupar | 2:11 PM · Apr 7, 2026
{Video 0:57} https://x.com/atrupar/status/2041549460199686359
- Aaron Rupar @atrupar | 2:11 PM · Apr 7, 2026
30MsMixte
>29 margd: JD's not very good at reading the room. That nonsense isn't going to go over well in the USA after the disaster of TACO, and also why is JD Vance interfering in the elections of a foreign country?
31margd
>30 MsMixte: Vance, stumping for Orban IN Hungary, accuses Ukraine of interfering in US and Hungarian elections! Also, wasn't Vance just assigned Iran negotiations??? What a mess this White House is!
33davidgn
>32 2wonderY: I think he should tell it to his couch.
35margd
Trumpworld Quietly Shivs JD Vance as Damning Leaks Discredit Iran Deal
Greg Sargent w Virginia Heffernan | June 17, 2026
"Sources tell Axios that U.S. intelligence agencies seriously doubt Iran will make the concessions on its nuclear program that Donald Trump expects it to once talks on it progress in earnest. The leaks are damning: They badly discredit Trump’s ceasefire with Iran. They also seriously undermine his claims that he prevailed on Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions. Tellingly, the sources also leaked word that JD Vance was a vocal proponent of the deal during internal discussions. This strongly suggests Vance is getting shivved: He’s getting set up to bear the blame if the deal goes south. There’s lots of other evidence of this too: Senator Lindsey Graham is vocally describing Vance as the deal’s “architect.” Graham, an Iran hawk, expects Iran to not comply on nukes and clearly wants Vance to get blamed for it. ... We discuss why Vance is so vulnerable to being shivved on Iran, why this is likely to tarnish his presidential ambitions, and how MAGA will reckon with all this as Trump’s influence wanes. ..."
https://newrepublic.com/article/211966/trumpworld-quietly-shivs-jd-vance-damning...
Greg Sargent w Virginia Heffernan | June 17, 2026
"Sources tell Axios that U.S. intelligence agencies seriously doubt Iran will make the concessions on its nuclear program that Donald Trump expects it to once talks on it progress in earnest. The leaks are damning: They badly discredit Trump’s ceasefire with Iran. They also seriously undermine his claims that he prevailed on Iran to drop its nuclear ambitions. Tellingly, the sources also leaked word that JD Vance was a vocal proponent of the deal during internal discussions. This strongly suggests Vance is getting shivved: He’s getting set up to bear the blame if the deal goes south. There’s lots of other evidence of this too: Senator Lindsey Graham is vocally describing Vance as the deal’s “architect.” Graham, an Iran hawk, expects Iran to not comply on nukes and clearly wants Vance to get blamed for it. ... We discuss why Vance is so vulnerable to being shivved on Iran, why this is likely to tarnish his presidential ambitions, and how MAGA will reckon with all this as Trump’s influence wanes. ..."
https://newrepublic.com/article/211966/trumpworld-quietly-shivs-jd-vance-damning...
36margd
If Only Trump Knew What Vance Is Doing
Jonathan Chait | 18 June 2026
"Yesterday, Donald Trump admitted that he was being crafty when he elevated J. D. Vance to sell the resolution of the war with Iran. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the peace deal. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming J.D.”
Trump was smirking when he said this, but it was not a joke. Judging by the messaging emanating from across the Republican Party, letting the president claim victory while making the vice president own an obvious defeat is the GOP strategy ..."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/vance-surrender-iran-trump/687597/
Jonathan Chait | 18 June 2026
"Yesterday, Donald Trump admitted that he was being crafty when he elevated J. D. Vance to sell the resolution of the war with Iran. “If it works out, I’m going to take the credit,” Trump said of the peace deal. “If it doesn’t work out, I’m blaming J.D.”
Trump was smirking when he said this, but it was not a joke. Judging by the messaging emanating from across the Republican Party, letting the president claim victory while making the vice president own an obvious defeat is the GOP strategy ..."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/06/vance-surrender-iran-trump/687597/
