Why the West Rules—For Now: The Patterns of History, and What They Reveal About the Future

Ian Morris has written a highly pleasurable comparative history of China and the West that highlights the similarities and parallelism of the human development at both edges of the Eurasian continent. The social development index he constructs allows both a longitudinal comparison (when does the West return to a Roman level of development?) as well as lateral between the West and China. The big flaw is that while China more or less remains one cultural player, the West is an amalgam from Assyria to the United States of America. A more honest accounting would have split the West, showing that for much of the time, England was a backwater. A multi-actor model would also have allowed for the inclusion of India, the big civilization left show more out of the picture (except for its transfer of Buddhism to China). Still, the book is an enjoyable read of big picture history that is marred by the author's predilection for cheesy movies and crank authors (von Däniken, Gavin Menzies, ...). His weak account of the 20th century which relies upon such important "thinkers" as Tom Friedman severely damages the overall impact of the book. It is truly puzzling how such a great read could end up with a train wreck ending.

Another element I found severely missing is accounting for inequality. Morris basically measures and compares the pinnacle of a civilization. That size and wealth of Rome was built upon the backs of millions of slaves and plundering of peoples is something that escapes his conservative 1 % point-of-view. All is well as long as the Virginia and Orange county suburbs enjoy a pleasant lifestyle. A parallel read of David Graeber's Debt and especially Richard Wilkinson's The Spirit Level is highly recommended as an antidote. One can only hope that his next book will not follow Niall Ferguson down the conservative rabbit hole. show less

This is one of the most interesting books I have read in a long time, even if the author's arguments don't always convince me entirely. But he does attempt an heroic task -- explaining the broadest rhythms of human history -- and he does offer brilliant exposition. Also, the book is a pleasure to read: Morris is an entertaining and sometimes amusing writer whose prose is refreshingly free of academese. What's best about the book, I think, is its presentation of history outside the narrow confines in which we in the West tend to think -- "modern" European history, i.e. European and North American history since the Renaissance. Morris shows that other cultures have shown parallel patterns, in the process teaching me a great deal that I show more did not know about ancient history apart from the Greeks and Romans, and about Chinese history. The tool that he uses to compare different cultures is an index of social development: he recognizes that there are a whole lot of questions about this, but in general offers it as a very rough and imprecise measure: as a metaphor, I can live with it. The final section of the book, on where we go from here, was interesting (and scary) though I found it a bit less gripping that Morris's views on where we have been. All in all, and enjoyable and mind-opening book. show less

A blockbuster telling of the whole of human history; despite its ambitious scope manages to be pretty readable with occasional jokes and human interest items ( how murdered whom, who slept with whom). I particularly liked his (repeated) dismissal of the Great Man and of the Great Blunderer in favour of a kind of deep causality. There's an multi-factorial analytic approach which holds it together, at least while you are reading, but doesn't quite stick in the mind afterwards. In similar vein to Diamond's "Guns,germs & Steel" which also tells us that the pattern of history is not just accident or happenstance. interesting point that East and West were already radically different in culture/way of life in earliest traces of human show more habitation. show less

If human history is looked at from a far distance for the past 50,000 years, do any patterns emerge? Morris thinks so and this book is his hypothesis on what patterns emerge. Any history book that covers this length of time is not a detailed dive into history. Some empires are covered in a paragraph or two. It's a dizzying, fast trip through human history. The East and the West have gone back and forth on the progress front for thousands of years now. The industrial revolution catapulted the west into the recent lead with England leading the way. He uses social development indexes to score the East and West through the years. There is lots of two steps forward and one step back.

So what drives progress? Here's the Morris theorem: " show more Change is caused by lazy, greedy, frightened people looking for easier, more profitable, and safer ways to do things. And they rarely know what they're doing."
I especially like the lazy people part. I've long thought that without lazy people we would all still be riding donkeys around. Lazy people will spend inordinate amounts of time figuring out how to avoid onerous tasks. The result of this is astounding. A hunter-gatherer used around 4,000 kilocalories per day. Someone living in the West today uses roughly 230,000 kilocalories per day. Energy capture is what makes modern lifestyles possible and creates most of the environmental challenges that face humanity.

The only constant is change and civilizations never step into the same river twice, anymore than humans do. Morris' social development indexes show (speculation) that the East overtakes the West around 2100. However, there's a good possibility it will not play out that way. The reasons are Nightfall and the Singularity. Ray Kurzweil's prediction for the arrival of the Singularity is 2045. That is also the year that Sagan and Shklovskii predict Nightfall. An advanced civilization will destroy itself within one hundred years of developing nuclear weapons. In his view the competition between West and East gives way to a competition between Singularity (or a Singularity type world) and Nightfall (either nuclear events or climate collapse). Futurists have mentioned the Singularity for years and it is interesting to see the historians beginning to mention it. If a Singularity-like event happens it probably is the end of humanity as we know it. If a Nightfall event(s) happens that too could be the end of humanity as we know it, maybe even the complete end of humans. Morris claims that the next forty years are the most important in human history. They very well could be that. show less

Wonderful book. Well argued. Backed up with evidence. Best overview of history of China I have read in a pop-history book. In school and in most overviews, I get the Fertile Crescent->Greece->Rome->Franks->Norman Invasion->England->Pilgrims->America track with China being mentioned because of the Silk Trade with Rome, Marco Polo and then the Opium Wars.

This gives a nice overview of the rise and expansion of various proto-states in China, then Empires, Dynasties and the ebb and flow of history there. I am sure a China specific book would be more detailed but this overview is the best I have read up until now.

I also liked the references to writers like Heinlein, Asimov, Tom Friedman and others that I have read. They were both appropriate show more and familiar.

I would recommend this book to anyone interested in History, Economy, Archaeology or the broad sweep of civilizations. show less

"Why the West Rules -- for Now" is the first book I have read that tries to quantify the relative level of society over time and location. A very ambitious task to say the least. At times I wasn't completely convinced of his logic in doing so but, overall, I enjoyed his presentation of the history of civilized humanity and, in particular, the interaction between the east and west. I was not particularly happy with his conclusions and I am looking forward to reading his recent book in which I understand he expands further on the implications of these ideas. He didn't, for instance, comment on the significance of an inevitable end to fossil fuel availability for civilization even though he tied the impressive rise in his index in recent show more times directly to the use of fossil fuels. This is not a book for light reading and especially if you are not a nut about anthropology and social history. If you are, however, give it a shot. show less

A panoramic and encyclopaedic review of history directed at explaining why the "West" is currently top dog, but how the "East" is inevitably going to overtake it in the coming century. The title is a bit of a teaser, because the book takes the very broad view of history, and the current era is given a fairly small amount of attention. The broad scope of the book is helpful in getting a better perspective to current issues. The author proposes a boom or bust scenario for humankind in this coming century - west and east will no longer be relevant; the bigger question is: will the world survive? Good stuff. (Read December 2010)