The Coming Storm: Power, Conflict, and Warnings from History

The Coming Storm by Odd Arne Westad is an excellent example of how history can be used to warn us about future events by showing how past similarities played out. This isn't predictive but a warning about potentialities.

This is, in many ways, a history book. But not a pure history book in that its purpose is not to simply expound on the past but to make explicit what we can learn from it that can help us with our current world. So there are no digressions from the history since the purpose of the book is what some may think are digressions. If you understand the aim of the book you won't make the same misjudgement or experience the same disappointment. In other words, read it for what it is, not what you might have wanted.

Active readers show more will not only have a lot to consider here but will also be thankful Westad assumed a certain level of intelligence in his readers and didn't feel the need to repeat the purpose of the book every time a point was made about similarities. Early in this volume he explains why he thinks we can look at the period before WWI and draw parallels with what is happening now. He explains how he will demonstrate that idea and also highlight some big picture ideas for how to steer everything away from another global conflict. As long as you're capable of keeping that in mind while reading, you will have no problem understanding how the similarities operate.

I wasn't sure at first just how much I was going to buy into his overall argument, but by the end I was convinced of the potential for events to follow a path not too different than before. Other multipolar periods of history that came before aren't appropriate for comparison for several reasons. The weapons available before 1800 weren't truly weapons of mass destruction, they weren't capable of killing people who were not in the vicinity of where the weapon was deployed. Additionally, the "world" prior to the "age of discovery" was smaller, in fact, there were several "worlds" on our planet, so while there were widespread destructive wars, they weren't global and weren't going to become global.

I think if you read this without trying to make it seem like Westad is saying that there are exact substitutions for the powers between eras and/or that he is claiming the same things will happen now that happened then, you will be able to engage with the big picture without getting lost and thinking there were no connections made. The point is that there are multiple players each with the ability to start a global conflict, even if they are viewing their actions as being more regional and specific. Between alliances and the interconnected nature of every aspect of live globally, regional power plays have the potential to be the beginning of a catastrophic global war.

Again, this is a warning based on historical facts and similarities. These aren't predictions. If we act with these possibilities in mind we can avoid an outcome similar to what came before. That is one of the main benefits of viewing history as something more than a collection of facts and narratives somehow isolated from our current world. This volume is an example of how to use history properly.

Recommended for history buffs and, more importantly, those in policy positions or studying to get into positions influencing policy.

Reviewed from a copy made available by the publisher via NetGalley. show less