NAFTA renegotiation

Here we go: wish I had more confidence that outcome would be better protection of workers and environment as well as level playing field and new kinds of trade...

Trump Sets a Collision Course With the Auto Industry as NAFTA Talks Begin
Reuters | Aug 13, 2017

...More than any other industry, autos have been the focus of U.S. President Donald Trump's anger over the North American Free Trade Agreement, which he blames for taking car factories and jobs away from America to low-wage Mexico.

The United States had a $74 billion trade deficit with Mexico in autos and auto parts last year, the dominant component of an overall $64 billion U.S. deficit, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.

"The Trump administration has framed their NAFTA negotiating objectives around reducing the trade deficit with Mexico," said Caroline Freund, a senior trade fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. "If they don't touch autos, there's no way of getting at what they want."

Among tools that U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer may seek to boost auto employment in the U.S. is strengthening the rules of origin to shut out more parts from Asia, and possibly an unprecedented U.S.-specific content requirement for Mexican vehicles...

http://fortune.com/2017/08/14/trumps-nafta-autos-talks-mexico/

Canada Wants a New Nafta to Include Gender and Indigenous Rights

the Liberal government of Prime Minister Justin Trudeau finally laid out its core objectives, and second on the list was to make the 23-year-old pact “more progressive.”

By that, the government meant not only strengthening the existing labor safeguards and environmental provisions, but also adding whole new chapters on both gender and indigenous rights, and addressing climate change.

Corporations seem to have way too much power over environmental decisions, and sometimes a native uses foreign investors and NAFTA to sue his own country!

A Cdn wind developer with US investors won $25 million from Canada over Ontario's imposition of a moratorium on offshore wind in the Great Lakes.

...a Canadian energy company Lone Pine, a subsidiary of an American corporation. Lone Pine sued the Canadian government through its American affiliate for $118.9 million USD because Quebec introduced a temporary moratorium on oil and gas fracking under the St. Lawrence River...
http://www.theguardian.pe.ca/opinion/2017/8/14/betty-wilcox--renegotiations-of-n...

(The St Lawrence Rift was site of major earthquake as recently as 1663!)

A brief history of Canada-US trade talks, as countries meet to write new chapter
The Canadian Press | August 15, 2017

...talks almost collapsed again on the final night (September 1987), when U.S. official James Baker informed Mulroney that Congress wouldn’t accept the international panel.

“We were gonna lose fast track in two hours,” (then PM) Mulroney recalled in an interview.

“I said, ‘Jim, all right, that’s fine… I just want to tell you that I’m going to call President Reagan now at Camp David and I’ve got one question for him:… I’m going to ask the president how it is that the United States of America can conclude an understanding for the reduction of nuclear weapons with your worst enemy, the Soviet Union, and you can’t reach a free-trade agreement with your best friend, the Canadians.”‘

Baker asked for a few minutes. He later returned to a room where Canadian officials were waiting. “He threw this piece of paper on the table and said, ‘There’s your goddamn independent dispute settlement mechanism — now can we get this (agreement) up to the Hill (for a vote) before midnight?”‘

Much has changed since then.

Mexico joined the agreement; new trade rules were created at the World Trade Organization; economic sectors were born; and, in recent years, the big Canadian political parties generally agree on trade. This time, it’s Americans who elected a government threatening to scrap an agreement.

But one thing hasn’t changed since 1987: the Americans still want to rip up that dispute-resolution system.

http://nationalpost.com/pmn/news-pmn/canada-news-pmn/a-brief-history-of-canada-u...

The Trump administration’s claim that the U.S. government ‘certified’ 700,000 jobs lost by NAFTA
Glenn Kessler | August 18, 2017

...(United States Trade Representative Robert E. Lighthizer) touted a statistic derived from fuzzy data that was 16 years old — and which ignored the positive impact of trade with Mexico and Canada. In doing so, he sidesteps the fact that most economists believe the impact of NAFTA on the U.S. economy was relatively modest and trade imbalances are relatively small, especially if oil products are excluded. His figure is offered without context and thus is rather misleading. Lighthizer pushed this into Four-Pinocchio territory by stating such a misleading number was “certified” by the U.S. government and could well be “much, much bigger.” In doing so, he suggests this fanciful bit of spin was vetted by government experts.

Four Pinocchios (= "whopper")

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2017/08/18/the-trump-adminis...

Sauce for the goose--Cdn negotiators take stance on US right to work legislation as well as lax labor standards in Mexico:

...as the second round of NAFTA negotiations draws to close on Monday, some are starting to think Canada is serious about its demands on labour rights.

Canadian negotiators led by Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland staked out a tough stance on the issue, going so far as to ask that the U.S. federal government step in to end state-level right to work legislation, which allows workers the option to choose whether or not to join a union in their workplace.

Such laws interfere with market forces that help determine wage levels and may have led to artificially low worker compensation in the U.S. states that adopted them, ( Lawrence Herman, senior fellow at the C.D. Howe Institute ) told Global News.

By targeting the U.S.’s right to work legislation as well as lax labour standards in Mexico, Ottawa is demanding a level playing field, he added...

https://globalnews.ca/news/3718194/nafta-canada-trump-jobs-labour-standards/

Pacific Trade Advances Without the U.S.
TPP is moving ahead in ways that will cost American exporters.
WSJ Editorial Board | Oct. 5, 2017

The Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact is regaining momentum despite the Trump Administration’s January decision to withdraw. Representatives of the remaining 11 TPP members met last month in Japan to push for ratification as early as November in the hope that Washington will rejoin. But even without the U.S., members stand to make significant gains.

A January study by Tokyo’s National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies makes the economic case for the smaller pact. Vietnam, originally expecting a 30% increase in exports under TPP by 2030, would still get a bump in textiles and apparel, as trade in those products is expected to grow $3 billion among the 11 member states. Malaysia would see a 20% increase in GDP due to reductions in nontariff barriers. Brunei would diversify its oil-dependent economy into biotech and agribusiness. New Zealand, Australia and Canada would actually enjoy bigger GDP boosts if the U.S. stays on the TPP sidelines. Their beef producers would secure preferential access to Japan’s market and take market share from American ranchers.

That shows how the Trump Administration has set back U.S. exporters by withdrawing from TPP. The U.S. is now seeking to renegotiate the North American Free Trade Agreement to obtain market-opening provisions that are part of the TPP. But Mexico and Canada don’t want to make concessions that were given in return for the broader benefits of TPP...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/pacific-trade-advances-without-the-u-s-1507245991

If US withdraws from NAFTA (a Cdn perspective):

Expect to pay more for lots of stuff if Donald Trump dissolves NAFTA
Amy Minsky | Oct 12, 2017

...A number of observers, including the former World Bank president, a Canadian international trade specialist involved in the original NAFTA negotiations, the head of Canadian union Unifor and a U.S. international trade lawyer have little good to say about Trump’s proposals.

Offers on the table, such as the Buy American one that would limit access for Canada and Mexico to American procurement projects while seeking greater access for American firms to Mexican and Canadian government projects, has been called “poison pills” and “ridiculous.”

The overall sense is there’s a very real possibility of losing NAFTA.

...Before NAFTA was negotiated, signed and enacted, the U.S. and Canada regulated trade based on an agreement exclusive to the two countries.

... never terminated

...In practice, any changes from the current trilateral agreement to the 1980s bilateral agreement would be negligible in terms of duties imposed on goods crossing the Canada-U.S. border, said Barutciski.

But Canadian consumers will lose whatever benefits gained via U.S.-Mexico trade which, as he explained, could drive up the costs of goods for consumers.

On top of that, the Reagan-era bilateral agreement has been idling for almost 25 years; many of its provisions aren’t exactly current.

...Though it throws another layer of uncertainty over the entire thing, it is worth mentioning Trump could also decide to tear up the old bilateral agreement (though perhaps not easily or without a horde of legal battles).

In that case, WTO regulations would govern trade between Canada and the U.S. and that, according to (Milos Barutciski, who co-heads international trade and investment at Toronto’s Bennett Jones LLP), would be devastating to both economies.

“A withdrawal from NAFTA would have a net negative impact on both countries. But it wouldn’t be devastating,” he said.

“Withdrawing from both would be an unmitigated disaster.”

https://globalnews.ca/news/3797043/donald-trump-nafta-kill-canada-us-trade-impac...

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US business and Mexican perspectives:

Business leaders say no NAFTA better than bad deal
Stefanie Eschenbacher | October 11, 2017

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) - Business leaders attending a U.S.-Mexico CEO conference said on Wednesday that no North American Free Trade Agreement would be better than a bad deal, as industry braces for the end of a treaty that drives $1 trillion in annual trade.

...a bilateral “CEO dialogue” that meets a couple of times each year, included a closed-door discussion on the NAFTA negotiations addressed by Foreign Minister Luis Videgaray and Economy Minister Idelfonso Guajardo, who are in charge of the negotiations for Mexico.

On the U.S. side the event was co-chaired by Fedex Freight’s CEO Michael Ducker and U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue.

...Donohue warned that several U.S. proposals in the NAFTA talks were “poison pills” that risked dooming the agreement.

...Mexico accuses Trump of spoiling for a “protectionist war” with proposals aimed at balancing trade.

...removing dispute resolution mechanisms, limiting trade in fresh produce and introducing minimum quotas for U.S. parts in autos (half).

While better than a bad deal, (Guillermo Vogel, who co-chaired the Mexico City event and is a vice president at Tenaris, a steel company) said the failure of NAFTA would be a “lose-lose” situation, and that U.S.-Mexico trade without it could lead to a U.S. trade deficit larger than the current $64 billion.

U.S. products would face higher tariffs to enter Mexico, which could further skew the trade balance.

...(U.S. Chamber of Commerce President Thomas Donohue) also singled out a “sunset clause” that would automatically terminate NAFTA every five years unless there were fresh negotiations.

“Clearly, a clause that cancels the agreement every five years totally defangs it,” Vogel said...

Vogel said U.S. and Mexican businesses still believed NAFTA talks would produce a good deal and said they would continue to lobby their governments and lawmakers to negotiate a good deal.

“With an agreement, in 10 years I see a strong region that can face Asia or China, without an agreement I see a weaker region in the medium and long term.”

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nafta-trade-mexico-ceo/business-leaders-say-no...

To me there are a lot of misassumptions about the Nafta and other trade bills. The main problem with these bills are they are made by elites for elites--a person like Donald Trump is going to be a benefactor and this isn't going to change even if it's renegotiated a thousand more times unless there's a fundamental change in how power is shared.

There are a lot of people who think Mexicans are taking our jobs in the USA. Wealthy mostly male white people--pillars of their respective communities sold off their jobs back in 1994--they cashed them in like fucking chips at a casino. Law abiding religious minded folk. Those manufacturing and industrial jobs have already been played--quite a number of them went to Mexico and quite a lot of those that went to Mexico then went to the Pacific Rim along with even more jobs from the USA. The reason all along has been none other than cheaper labor/lax labor standards and no environmental/safety standards. This was accomplished because the Federal Govt. decided to get out of the way of corporations and banks who made a killing. If you were rich and/or an investor it was a good deal. If you didn't have a lot of education--had to work for a living it wasn't. In fact even if you weren't directly effected it created downward pressure on your wages and benefits and even if you belonged to a Union it made it much harder for them too. Which is why it is still very unpopular in the USA. To put it bluntly if you're looking for a term it would be 'sold out'.

The Nafta didn't do ordinary Mexicans any favors either. Being murdered (especially women) in their thousands in those areas known as the Maquilladoras--the Cartels and big business do business. Within two years of the Nafta's enactment the peso collapsed. The rich wherever they are always have a parachute. US congress moved in to protect American investors. By the way I can remember watching so many congresspeople saying they'd never vote for such a thing again. Just saying. A precursor to the bank bailout in 2008. In Mexico as well it's the public that bears the brunt. Mexican workers weren't well enumerated. Just because American companies moved south of the Rio Grande didn't mean they were going to start paying people well. The reason companies moved there was to not pay them well. The peso collapse devalued the currency by about 20%. That created a lot of desperation and a lot of Mexicans deciding on moving north of the border. We helped to collapse their economy and then we're surprised when they show up at our door.

Quite a high % of the jobs undocumented (I don't like the word 'illegal'--it's bullshit. Is it 'illegal' to breathe?) Hispanic workers do in the United States no American would want to do. That's just a fucking fact. Another part of that fact is that the corporate farm wants to keep it that way--because they want to pay people much cheaper than the minimum wage, give them no benefits and 15 hours a day 7 days a week. That way they can get super rich. Construction contractors are pretty much the same way. They look at their businesses just as cynically as a Wal-Mart does. Guy gets killed--no one knows. Guy gets hurt--he's on his own. Never heard of him. Your average Mexican trying to earn a living in the United States does not have it very easy.

To reiterate on the trade bills--they're by elites and for elites. They cut out labor and environmental voices. They're all about making wealthy and super wealthy people even wealthier. We should not have trade bills that don't include input from legitimate labor and environmental voices or entities. Until we do get that input these deals will continue to be bullshit. That's why Trump's renegotiation here is not going to be any good. He has no interest either in labor or on the environmental issues. We've seen plenty of evidence of that.

ETA. Here you go--Cdn strike that's the "poster child with what's wrong with the North American Free Trade Agreement":

General Motors Canada says there are limits to collective bargaining
2,800 striking CAMI Automotive workers in Ingersoll walked off the job on Sept. 17
Hala Ghonaim | Oct 12, 2017

...GM says, production in Mexico is "steady" for now. But the company is studying what it will take to continue to supply the North American market with the Equinox – the automaker's most popular vehicle. At the same time, the source points out GM has invested $800 million in the Ingersoll plant implying that should speak to the company's commitment to its workers.

Concerns about international trade began for the union after GM relocated production of the GMC Terrain earlier this year to Mexico, which resulted in the loss of about 400 jobs in Ingersoll. The company currently has two plants in Mexico that build the Equinox.

The company clarified that it has resolved several economic issues revolving around pay and benefits. GM sources said the union shouldn't get bogged down on national trade agreement policies that can't be resolved in a smaller-scale collective agreement.

Earlier this month, (the union's national president Jerry Dias) called the strike the "poster child with what's wrong with the North American Free Trade Agreement" – the policy currently being renegotiated by Canada, the U.S. and Mexico...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/london/gm-speaks-cami-strike-1.4352326
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‘GM declares war on Canada’ with threat to move production as strike lingers: union
Alicja Siekierska | October 12, 2017

...GM informed Unifor head Jerry Dias on Wednesday that the company has started to explore other production alternatives as the strike at the CAMI facility in Ingersoll, Ont. continues into its fourth week, according to a company official. The official said negotiations have reached an impasse, although a narrow window remains to reach a collective agreement before production is shifted.

Despite the possible production change, Unifor — which represents about 2,500 striking workers — is standing by its primary demand that the company make a long-term commitment to the plant that would prevent further production from shifting to Mexico. Dias called GM’s threat “a slap in the face” to Canada and the United States...

http://business.financialpost.com/transportation/autos/war-on-canada-unifor-fume...

#10--FWIW a similar occurrence happened to me when I was in my early 20's. The company saying to our union reps 'you either stop your strike....accept our offer or we're moving out'. My carpenter's and joiner's union didn't stop and that's how I lost my first real job and why I wound up doing 4 years in the Coast Guard. Not that 4 years in the Coast Guard was an altogether bad experience but it was never really an ambition of mine to join the US military. But I was young---when you're in your 40's and 50's it's very much a lot harder to start all over again.

Re Cdn GM strike, I don't know the details, but I'm thinking workers might want to take the pay and benefit concessions and call it a day. GM has invested in Ingersoll plant, but doesn't want to tie its hands. Canadian dollar is low compared to US at the moment, and Ingersoll is just up the road from Detroit, so geographically advantaged. Trump seems to want to cut Mexico, but not Canada, out of NAFTA, and even if he does blow up the agreement, a previous agreement has as many cars built in Canada as bought there. Union-busting is big in US lately, which makes me think Canadian union might not want to unnecessarily raise its profile? Especially since Ontario economy seems due for a downturn?

(BTW: Canadians are really ticked about Heinz pulling out of SW Ontario a few years ago, leaving tomato farms and bottling plant idle. French brand ketchup is favored now over Heinz in supermarkets--in Ontario at least. Quite noticeable difference on shelves.)

Among other negatives the Trump administration is driven by racism. His shtick on Mexicans has never been to reach out a hand in any kind of friendly way--it's been build a wall, free Joe Arpaio and renegotiate the Nafta and yep Mexicans and other Hispanics are his target in all this...and it's fueled by his associations with the alt-right which include very many Neo-nazi's and/or Klanners and their sympathizers. Trump is an ugly self serving individual who promotes the same in or from others.

When I google US news for "NAFTA negotiation" almost all that pops up are stories from Canada, especially, and Mexico. Not that they are happy with status quo, e.g. tribunals that favor corporations, right-to-work legislation in states, new e-businesses not covered, etc., but US demands seem designed to lead to undermining, rather than modernizing the agreement. Sounds like Canada hopes that free-traders in Congress will step in.
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Freeland calls U.S. NAFTA demands 'troubling' and 'unconventional'
Canada, U.S. trade public barbs as tense round 4 of NAFTA talks concludes
Kathleen Harris | Oct 17, 2017

Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland accused the United States of deliberately trying to undermine the North American Free Trade Agreement, calling its list of unconventional proposals "troubling."

Her remarks came during a tense joint news conference as the fourth round of NAFTA talks wrapped up in Arlington, Va., a suburb of Washington, D.C. As Freeland delivered the rebuke of the U.S. approach, her counterpart U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer silently looked down.

"...in rounds three and four, we have seen proposals that turn back the clock on 23 years of predictability, openness and collaboration under NAFTA," she said. "In some cases, these proposals run counter to World Trade Organization rules. This is troubling."

Freeland said the U.S. demands on national content rules would "severely disrupt" supply chains, weakening North American productivity and jeopardizing thousands of jobs in all three countries.

She also warned that an updated NAFTA can't be achieved with a "winner-takes-all mindset," or one that tries to undermine, rather than modernize, the agreement.

(U.S. Trade Representative Robert ) Lighthizer offered a disapproving rebuttal, accusing his trade partners of refusing to budge on proposals that would help meet President Donald Trump's objectives of addressing the "huge" trade deficit and returning manufacturing jobs to the U.S.

...Mexican Secretary of Economy Ildefonso Guajardo Villarreal urged all three countries to take a constructive approach to talks to avoid a "lose-lose-lose" scenario.

...following the joint statements, Freeland said the fact all parties have agreed to take more time between talks and to extend negotiations into next year is a positive sign of good will among all partners.

.... next year's Mexican elections...harder it will be for the country to make any concessions.

One bit of leverage Mexico holds in the negotiations is the fact that, as a developing nation, it is allowed to impose higher import tariffs under World Trade Organization rules than the U.S. or Canada can if NAFTA were ripped up.

For example, if the U.S. were to hit Mexico with anti-dumping tariffs on its seasonal produce, Mexico could retaliate against U.S. apple producers with even higher tariffs — a point Mexican negotiators have been making. Mexico is the number one importer of U.S. apples. Big importer of US corn, too?)

Derek Burney, Canada's ambassador to the United States from 1989-93 who was involved with wrapping up the free-trade agreement with the U.S., wondered if the U.S. is trying to sabotage the talks...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/nafta-freeland-lighthizer-round4-1.4358242
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U.S. not 'dictatorship,' time for Congress to commit on NAFTA: Liberal MP
(Cdn MP) Bob Nault will lead an all-party delegation south of the border this week
Mike Blanchfield | Oct 23, 2017

Donald Trump needs to butt out as a hovering presence over the North American Free Trade Agreement talks and U.S. lawmakers must come clean about what they really think of the deal, says a veteran Liberal MP.

Bob Nault, who heads the House of Commons foreign affairs committee, will be taking his blunt assessment directly to (Mexico City and to) Capitol Hill in the coming days...

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/u-s-not-dictatorship-time-for-congress-to-commit...

Will repost at "Trumps screws his base".
(With negotiator like Trump on NAFTA (Paris Agreement, DPRK!), sounds like time to put rest of my retirement savings in cash!)

Trump’s States Need Nafta
‘Coastal elites’ won’t be hardest hit if the President nixes the trade agreement.
Mary Anastasia O’Grady | Oct. 29, 2017

...At a private luncheon with Republican senators last Tuesday, Mr. Trump reportedly shared his North American Free Trade Agreement negotiating strategy. According to Inside Trade, which spoke to senators who attended the gathering, the president believes that by issuing a notification of his intent to leave Nafta—which would trigger a six-month waiting period before the actual exit—he can force Mexico and Canada to make the concessions he wants.

“The president said there was no way to get the changes we need unless we get out, then have six months to negotiate,” one GOP senator told the Washington-based trade publication. Mr. Trump reportedly did not say what those concessions are. The only clear goal, according to one unnamed senator, is ending the trade deficit with Mexico.

...Almost five million U.S. jobs rely on trade with Mexico, including jobs in auto manufacturing, auto parts, railroads, heavy equipment, machinery, oil and gas, steel fabricating, farming, ranching and food processing, as well as marketing, design, insurance, financial services and intellectual-property.

The pushback against Mr. Trump’s Nafta assault is not coming from “coastal elites” contemptuous of what they refer to as “flyover country.” It’s coming from the “flyover” industrial and farming heartland itself, which has the most to lose...

...Mexico has said it is eager to modernize Nafta. But with a Mexican presidential election in July 2018 there is no way the government is going to bow to the managed-trade demands of Mr. Trump, whose image inside Mexico is no better than that of James K. Polk, who presided over the Mexican-American War.

Mexico says that in a post-Nafta world it would buy its grain and meat in South America, prompting one wise senator to tell Inside Trade, “We’re not in as strong a position as Trump thinks we are.” As to manufacturing, companies are likely, at least initially, to pay any new U.S. tariff and pass the cost on to American consumers, essentially handing them a tax increase. Not exactly what Mr. Trump promised Middle America.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trumps-states-need-nafta-1509301997

Interesting: in NAFTA renegotiation, Canada objected to state right-to-work (anti-union) legislation. IN TPP, it held line on environmental and labor standards. 'Rules of origin' (as in auto parts) are still being negotiated in both TPP and NAFTA.

TPP partners reach agreement on 'core elements' of Pacific trade deal...
John Paul Tasker | Nov 10, 2017

...The 11 Trans-Pacific Partnership countries have reached an agreement on "core elements" of the trade pact, namely that all countries will adhere to strict labour and environment standards, a development Canada is championing as a major breakthrough after talks broke down earlier Friday.

...All countries have agreed now to implement regulations around minimum wages, hours of work and occupational safety and health, for example, something the original TPP called for.

...if a country does not adhere to these requirements as called for in the agreement, any country could haul another offending partner in front of a trade tribunal, and they would be subject to the dispute resolution process.

The 11 partner countries have now put "four specific items" aside to allow for further negotiations, notably chapters relating to rules of origin, which includes automotive parts, before a deal is signed.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/tpp-apec-summit-talks-1.4396984

A Nafta Recession?
The biggest threat to the Trump economy is his trade agenda.
WSJ Editorial Board | Nov. 12, 2017

...Not a single economist (surveyed by WSJ) said that the withdrawal Mr. Trump has threatened would help the economy. Some 82% said the economy would grow more slowly for the next two years than it would otherwise, and 7% predicted a recession. That underestimates the risks of recession in our view, given the political shock from such a reckless act by a U.S. President and the damage that would ensue to North American and even global supply chains.

Only one in four of the economists anticipates a U.S. withdrawal, but that also may be optimistic. Mr. Trump almost pulled out once, and he seems to believe that Mexico and Canada have no choice but to bend to U.S. wishes. But those two countries are already moving to diversify their trading options, and they have their own domestic political pressures not to cave to the U.S...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-nafta-recession-1510522167

#17--his interest in renegotiation is to spin whatever he accomplishes. He got a lot of white working class votes by demonizing Mexican workers vis a vis the Nafta trade deal. He's not about to do these white working class voters any real favors though--he'll lie to them for sure that he's doing it for them but it will be more of the same corporate friendly anti-labor, anti-environmental crap that we've seen consistently from one administration to the next whether republican or democrat since Ronald Reagan.

Boeing and Bombardier Trade Clash Poses More Risks for Nafta
ANA SWANSON | DEC. 18, 2017

...(per Boeing) the Commerce Department decided to levy duties of nearly 300 percent on the Bombardier CSeries

The International Trade Commission, an American agency that investigates trade disputes, is expected to issue a ruling on the Commerce Department duties in late January.

...Canada’s ambassador to the United States, who disputed Boeing’s claim of unfair subsidies and argued that Boeing itself was heavily subsidized (dumping)

... Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada and Prime Minister Theresa May of Britain (plane built at least in part in Ireland) urging President Trump to intervene in the case.

Canada announced earlier this month that it would scrap a $5.2 billion purchase of new fighter jets from Boeing and purchase Australian jets instead.

...British ambassador to the United States, said...would damage international trade, competition and American airlines and their customers.

...Canada could ask the World Trade Organization to reconsider the decision, or Bombardier could appeal the decision in a federal court in New York, or through a panel of judges constituted under Nafta.

Canada wants to keep its ability to appeal such trade decisions to a panel of judges from Nafta countries through what is known as Chapter 19 (now a red line for Canada), a reference to the Nafta chapter that created the mechanism. But that mechanism is under threat from the United States, which has called for jettisoning the types of quasi-judicial panels that Canada has relied on to resolve trade disputes. (margd: and vv, e.g., L Ont windfarm)

Under Mr. Trump, the Commerce Department has shifted its resources from promoting business ties between countries to ramping up its enforcement of American trade rules...

...October... Bombardier announced that it would move production of the CSeries airliner to Alabama in a partnership with French jet maker Airbus. The arrangement could give Bombardier a way to evade duties, if they are levied, although production in the Alabama facility will not start until after the trade case is concluded.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/12/18/us/politics/boeing-bombardier-trade-nafta.htm...

The US threatened to start calendar on withdrawing from NAFTA after Canada appealed recent US tariffs (Bombardier planes?) at WTO. Mexico played its (only?) card by threatening to leave the table if US triggered a 6-month withdrawal process. Significantly(?), Trump didn't mention NAFTA withdrawal in speech to farmers. Cdn and Mexican currencies, stock markets (incl. US) shudder, but recover.

In US, agriculture, auto industry, stock market and border states have most to lose if the three countries can't find agreement, a point Canada, especially, is making to potentially affected governors and Congress. I'd say this is tempest in teapot, if it wasn't for Trump card. Still, "likely a "zombie NAFTA" will continue even if Trump pulls out, as such an action could be held up in the U.S. court system and members of congress would have to authorize the addition of new tariffs on goods..."

Mexico will leave NAFTA talks if Trump triggers process to withdraw
David Alire Garcia, Adriana Barrera, Anthony Esposito | Jan 10, 2017

Mexico will leave the NAFTA negotiating table if U.S. President Donald Trump decides to trigger a 6-month process to withdraw from the trade pact

Reuters reported earlier in the day that Canada was increasingly convinced that Trump would soon announce the United States intends to pull out of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), sending the Canadian and Mexican currencies lower and hurting stocks across the continent.

...While a NAFTA termination letter would start the six-month exit clock ticking, the United States would not be legally bound to quit NAFTA once it expires. Washington could use the move as the ultimate sleight of hand as it seeks to gain leverage over Canada and Mexico in talks to update the 24-year-old trade pact.

...Among the most divisive (proposals) are plans to establish rules of origin for NAFTA goods that would set minimum levels of U.S. content for autos, a sunset clause that would terminate the trade deal if it is not renegotiated every five years, and ending the so-called Chapter 19 dispute mechanism.

Though observers in Canada and Mexico have become increasingly gloomy about the upcoming Jan. 23-28 Montreal round in recent weeks, some took heart from a recent speech made by Trump to farmers this week in which he held back from provocative comments about the trade deal...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trade-nafta-mexico/mexico-will-leave-nafta-ta...

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Canada preparing for possibility Trump will pull out of NAFTA: sources
Canada will remain at the negotiation table even if U.S. gives notice, sources say
CBC News | Jan 10, 2018

...Canada will stay at the negotiation table even if Trump makes that call...

Canada is still optimistic there could still be some sort of positive resolution to these fractious trade talks...and will continue to pursue its aggressive outreach plans in the U.S., which include meetings with U.S. state governors and lawmakers in Washington.

...The mere suggestion of Trump's intent to withdraw put downward pressure on the loonie (Cdn dollar) Wednesday...The loonie bounced back late in the trading day after government officials on both sides of the border suggested there was no immediate change in Trump's NAFTA position.

...Canada is likely to stay at the table as long as possible because there has been meaningful progress made on modernizing the deal, including talk around thinning the border, customs, regulatory issues, and addressing the realities of an increasingly digital economy.

Brett House, the deputy chief economist at Scotiabank, said while there might be "catastrophic sounding headlines" at this critical juncture, it is unlikely anything will change in the near future. It is more likely a "zombie NAFTA" will continue even if Trump pulls out, as such an action could be held up in the U.S. court system and members of congress would have to authorize the addition of new tariffs on goods from Canada.

Talk of walking away from NAFTA came on a day when Canada announced it would appeal some of the tariffs — which have recently been levied on a host of Canadian goods (Bombardier planes?) by the Trump administration — to the World Trade Organization (WTO).

Laura Dawson, the director of the Canada Institute at the Wilson Centre in Washington..."in the long run, I don't think this (Canada's appeal to WTO of US tariffs) has changed anything on the NAFTA front."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-nafta-trump-talks-pull-out-1.4481499

Trump Marks Second Year With Asia Tariffs World Has Feared
Andrew Mayeda, Rainer Buergin, and Alessandro Speciale | January 22, 2018

China says tariffs will worsen global trading environment
Some manufacturers say actual tariffs could have been worse

...Trump slapped tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines...as he prepares to travel to the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, where his “America First” stance is likely to be at odds with the global business and political elite.

The key now is whether the shift from protectionist rhetoric to hard action will disrupt the broadest global recovery since the world was pulling out of the financial crisis. The initial verdict from markets: probably not...

...Trinh Nguyen, a senior economist at Natixis SA in Hong Kong and former consultant to the World Bank...“The concern really is whether or not this is a trend with more to come.”

Much will depend on how China responds...(so far restrained)

...Eleven Pacific nations led by Japan agreed on the text of their own trade accord (son of TPP) Monday and are aiming to sign the deal in March, Singapore’s trade ministry said. The Trans-Pacific Partnership doesn’t include China...(nor) U.S. ...

...Trump has about three months to decide whether to impose tariffs on imported steel and aluminum, while his top trade official is probing China’s intellectual-property practices.

U.S. negotiators are hunkered down in Montreal this week with their Canadian and Mexican counterparts, trying to fashion an update to the North American Free Trade Agreement. A tough line there could suggest Monday’s actions are just the start.

...the European Union has a chance to step in and promote itself as defender of free trade...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-22/trump-makes-first-big-trade-m...

_________________________________________________

China Has Plenty of Options to Retaliate Against U.S. Tariffs
Bloomberg News | January 23, 2018, 3:24 AM EST

Apple, Boeing and soybean exports are all at risk: Rabobank
Beijing ‘strongly’ dissatisfied with tariffs on solar, washers

_________________________________________________

How Asian Giants Can Counter Trump's Washing Machine Tariff
Bloomberg News | January 23, 2018

Appliance makers can raise prices, shift production locations
Samsung, Haier are also building factories in the U.S.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-23/how-asian-giants-can-counter-...

Trans-Pacific trade pact, without U.S., to be signed in March: Japan
Kaori Kaneko, Takashi Umekawa | January 23, 2018

...Japanese Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said the new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTTP), or TPP-11*, would be an “engine to overcome protectionism” emerging in parts of the world.

...new agreement would leave a door open for eventual U.S. participation.

Canada, which wanted protection of its cultural industries, and Vietnam, which has worried about labor protection rules, will exchange separate side letters with other members on those topics at the time of the signing, Motegi said.

The timing of the deal is significant for Canada, which is trying to diversify its exports. Talks with Mexico and the United States on modernizing the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) have run into trouble and may fail.

https://in.reuters.com/article/trade-tpp-japan/trans-pacific-trade-pact-without-...

* Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Trans-Pacific_Partnership

>19 margd: contd. Quick google doesn't show how Cdn govt subsidized C-series plane, but Bombardier has come a long way from building snowmobiles to mono-rail (Bangkok) and planes and ______. Wonder if Bombardier trade victory will further poison NAFTA talks, or if Trump will take it as a win that some at least will now be built in AL, never mind Boeing's close ties to Trump?

300% tariff for plane v 30% for solar panels and washing machines--wonder how these are calculated?

Bombardier's Upstart Jet Regains U.S. Access in Win Over Boeing
Frederic Tomesco | January 27, 2018, 12:00 AM EST

Canadian planemaker stuns aerospace giant with trade victory
JetBlue seen as one potential customer as sales effort revs up (possibly Republic Air, Spirit Airlines Inc. and Sun Country Airlines. Delta)

...The unanimous vote (American industry isn’t being harmed by C Series sales) blocked a Commerce Department decision last year to impose duties of almost 300 percent after a complaint by Boeing. The Chicago-based company said Bombardier sold the C Series in the U.S. at less than fair value while benefiting from government subsidies.

...It’s possible Boeing hasn’t said its last word. After the trade panel’s ruling, the company said it would review the (U.S. International Trade Commission) decision and vowed not to stand by as Bombardier’s “illegal business practices” hurt U.S. workers and companies. Boeing has forged close ties with President Donald Trump...

...Airbus (which has majority stake in the C-Series) and Bombardier...are pressing ahead with a plan to manufacture the planes in Mobile, Alabama, where the European company makes single-aisle planes. The new assembly line, with an estimated cost of $300 million, would complement Bombardier’s factory in Mirabel, Quebec.

“Building the plant eliminates any of that future risk that duties can be imposed at a later date...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-01-27/bombardier-s-upstart-jet-rega...

___________________________________________________________________________

US Bombardier dispute: 'Huge relief' for British workers
Jan 27, 2018

...Over a thousand jobs (wings) in Belfast depend on the success of the C-Series passenger jet

...good news for Airbus, which took advantage of Bombardier's struggles to take a majority stake in the C-Series...

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-northern-ireland-42843201

The guy making OUR trade decisions says he would be tougher in Brexit negotiations than May...
God help us.

This Leaked Government Brexit Analysis Says The UK Will Be Worse Off In Every Scenario
Alberto Nardelli | January 29, 2018

Exclusive: BuzzFeed News has seen a new Brexit impact assessment, which says leaving the EU will adversely hit almost every sector and every UK region.
Posted on , at 4:30 p.m.

...The assessment, which is titled “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” and dated January 2018, looked at three of the most plausible Brexit scenarios based on existing EU arrangements.

Under a comprehensive free trade agreement with the EU, UK growth would be 5% lower over the next 15 years compared to current forecasts, according to the analysis.

The "no deal" scenario, which would see the UK revert to World Trade Organization (WTO) rules, would reduce growth by 8% over that period. The softest Brexit option of continued single-market access through membership of the European Economic Area would, in the longer term, still lower growth by 2%...

https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-say...

China Warns It May Retaliate If U.S. Imposes Metal Tariffs
Bloomberg News | February 17, 2018

Proposed U.S. measures are groundless, Commerce Ministry says
Japan says looking at situation, India downplays impact

...Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said the U.S. may impose quotas on imports of aluminum and steel, including a tariff of at least 24 percent on steel imports from all countries.

American steel companies and steelworker unions have been pushing Trump to follow through on his promise to protect the industry. China’s trade partners have complained for years that its industry unfairly benefits from state subsidies, and dumps its products at below-market prices. While China only accounts for about 1 percent of U.S. steel imports, it could challenge U.S. action at the World Trade Organization, a process that could take years.

...Rather than tariffs on all imports, Trump may opt for a more “surgical” approach, Ross suggested at a meeting with lawmakers this week. On steel, for example, the president could go with the recommended option that would levy a tariff of 53 percent on imports from 12 countries — a list that includes China, Russia, India and South Korea — but allow exemptions for allies such as Japan, Germany and Canada...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-17/china-warns-u-s-it-may-retali...

Trump is using national security rule to establish tariffs on steel and aluminum. Never mind R oppositions and threats of trade war, I imagine manufacturersstfrs of autos, baseball bats, and beer cans will challenge in court. (That scary threat to US national security, CANADA, is #1 foreign supplier of steel...) Must be scurrying in WH on how to gracefully backtrack on what Trump sees as campaign promise?

Trump just started a trade war, all right — with his own party
Amber Phillips | March 2, 2018

...Trump has a protectionist worldview: He just announced controversial tariffs on aluminum and steel imports, potentially the first strike in a trade war with not only China but U.S. allies such as Canada, Mexico and Brazil.

Leading Republicans in the Senate are dismayed. They fear that making foreign steel and aluminum more costly to U.S. buyers could cause other countries to slap tariffs on U.S. imports in retaliation. That's the opposite of the free-trade policies Republicans tend to champion, which in its truest form has no restrictions...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2018/03/02/trump-just-started-a-t...

Astonishing account of how the steel and aluminum tariff was announced--scary to think this is how big (military?) decisions might be made:

Trump was angry and ‘unglued’ when he started a trade war, officials say
Stephanie Ruhle and Peter Alexander | March 3, 2018

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/trump-was-angry-unglued-when-he-sta...
____________________________

Kelly might not have known what was coming, but sounds like Icahn did:

Ex-Trump adviser sold $31m in shares days before president announced steel tariffs
Dominic Rushe | Fri 2 Mar 2018

Carl Icahn sold $31.3m of shares in a company dependent on steel imports days before the commerce department mooted stiff tariffs on imports

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/mar/02/carl-icahn-shares-sell-trump-st...

The Washington Post this morning points out the GOP's breaking point

Finally, Trump does something Republicans can’t stomach

"This, then, shows the extent to which the congressional GOP, despite Trump’s populist talk, has been a wholly owned subsidiary of corporate America under Trump."

R donors make money in a shooting war, but they lose in a trade war...

Tariffs on China: half-baked, hurtful to markets, Korea talks, consumers, agriculture in Trump country
Bond markets(?)--China holds much of American debt.

Bloomberg: Trump Country in Greatest Peril as China Tariffs Risk Trade War

BBC News: Markets edgy on China US trade war fears

The Hill: Exaggerating our China trade problem will hurt Americans

New York Times: Trump's Half-Baked China Tariffs

CNN: Tariffs show Trump doesn't want China's help with North Korea

Cross-posted to "Trump screws base" thread as Chinese tariffs crafted to hurt areas that voted for Trump...

U.S. Stock and Crop Futures Tank After China Announces Reciprocal Tariffs
China said it would levy a 25% reciprocal tariff on 106 U.S. products including soybeans, cars, whisky and chemicals.
Lisa Botter | Apr 4, 2018

...Beijing vowed proportional retaliation to plans by the U.S. for a 25% tariff on 1,333 products, with China's Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday saying it would immediately appeal the actions to the World Trade Organization. The tariffs are in response to decades of state-backed intellectual property theft by China, which President Trump said was "probably ... in the neighborhood of $200 billion to $300 billion."...

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14544564/1/wall-street-futures-under-pressure-as...

ETA___________________________________________________________

The Trump-China 'intimidation trade game' is getting ugly — and a trade war could be fast approaching
Bob Bryan | April 4, 2018

http://www.businessinsider.com/china-tariff-soybeans-donald-trump-trade-war-bad-...

Movement on NAFTA? Sounds like Trump still aims to take piece out of Mexico, but may not have desired benefit in US? How could Mexico, with election July 1, agree? Surely mature economy/stock market would react badly to NAFTA breakdown at same time as trade war w China? (Guardian: Trump considers new $100bn tariff on Chinese goods. Trade spat ‘could wipe 0.5% off Chinese GDP’) What have you got to lose Trump asked voters...

White House Tries to Pull Nafta Back From Brink as Deadlines Loom
ANA SWANSON | APRIL 5, 2018

...Trump administration...moving to resolve one trading conflict as a separate clash with China looms.

...The talks, which appeared to be on the brink of collapse just a few months ago, kicked back into gear in recent weeks as political and practical realities prompted a newfound urgency among American negotiators. For a revised Nafta to be approved by the current Republican-controlled congress, the Trump administration would probably have to finalize it before the end of May to allow time for congressional review given the House and Senate calendar.

...The White House temporarily exempted Canada and Mexico from the steel and aluminum tariffs through May 1, saying it would make those exemptions permanent if the three nations could agree to a revised Nafta. The administration must now make good on that promise and negotiate a deal that would allow key allies to continue importing metals into the United States.

... upcoming Mexican elections on July 1, which appear likely to usher in a left-leaning president who has sharply criticized Mr. Trump over his broadsides against Mexico...a revised Nafta as a political win ahead of the congressional midterm elections in November, while giving the president’s top trade advisers room to turn their attention to resolving a potential trade war with China, which has fired back against American trade actions with punitive measures of its own.

...Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada...is expected to attend the two-day Summit of the Americas in Peru next week, alongside Mr. Trump and President Enrique Peña Nieto of Mexico.

Many (Trump) demands, including those linked to American auto production, have angered business groups and lawmakers, who say such requirements would actually hurt companies and workers by shifting more manufacturing out of the United States.

A quick resolution would necessitate concessions from the Trump administration, potentially resulting in a deal not significantly different

...The United States is (now) proposing a system that would require a certain proportion of auto parts to be made by workers earning certain wages...more palatable to Canada and could also encourage Mexico to ultimately pay higher wages...could help Mr. Trump court the votes of congressional Democrats

...Still, the proposal is likely to face opposition from Mexican negotiators, given that their current wage scales are too low to qualify. And some auto executives also criticized the new proposal, saying it would be nearly as difficult for companies to comply with as earlier ideas, and could ultimately push manufacturing out of North America to cheaper areas.

Other key areas of dispute also remain: Negotiators have so far concluded work on only six of the trade agreement’s roughly 30 chapters, and little progress has been made on contentious issues like mechanisms for settling trade disputes or rules for government purchases.

...trade deal that the United States recently concluded with South Korea at the end of March as a possible precedent...fairly modest changes.

Labor unions...were disappointed with that deal, which did not include changes to labor standards, investment rules or content requirements for automotive manufacturing.

Even an agreement in principle would not rule out the possibility of months or years of wrangling over an eventual deal...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/04/05/us/politics/nafta-negotiations-trump-canada-m...

ETA__________________________________________________-

How China's Proposed Tariffs Could Impact States' Economies
Mike Maciag | April 5, 2018

China is one of our largest trading partners. U.S. exports to the country totaled $130 billion last year...

http://www.governing.com/topics/finance/gov-china-tariffs-states-economies-trump...

...Xi Jinping should avoid responding to U.S. tariffs by punishing markets. China's global financial ambitions would be among the casualties.
Steven Englander | April 11, 2018

...proposals...include:

Depreciate the yuan.
Sell U.S. Treasuries.
Sell U.S. equities.
Place tariffs on U.S. oil exports along with soybeans.
Hinder exports of U.S. services.
Offset U.S. tariffs with subsidies to Chinese exporters...

...these financial measures do as much damage to China as to the U.S., and several of them do tremendous damage to China's neighbors and emerging-market countries that Beijing is courting in making the yuan an international currency.

...Hindering U.S. exports of petroleum or services would be a nuisance, but oil is pretty fungible.

...Chinese government reimbursement to its exporters for additional tariffs is the most benign move Beijing could make. Some of the reimbursement might be financed by tariffs that China collected on U.S. firms. This would have the least impact on bilateral trade, and minimal spillover internationally and in asset markets. It could become a fiscal issue in China (and the U.S., in the event Washington did the same), but might serve to remind that the stakes are lower than the rhetoric.

Bottom line, it's more likely that China will threaten retaliation through financial markets than actually carry it out. Were China to act on the threats, the country might do more damage to its aspirations to an international yuan than any plausible gain that would emerge.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-11/china-won-t-sell-treasuries-t...

Trump offers US aid to penalized Chinese telecom company
The Associated Press | May 14, 2018

...the Commerce Department's move last month to block the ZTE Corp., a major supplier of telecom networks and smartphones based in southern China, from importing American components for seven years. The U.S. accused ZTE of misleading American regulators after it settled charges of violating sanctions against North Korea and Iran.

...ZTE, which has more than 70,000 employees and has supplied networks or equipment to some of the world's biggest telecoms companies, said in early May that it had halted its main operations as a result of the department's "denial order."

Trump, who has taken a hard line on trade and technology issues with Beijing, tweeted that he and Chinese leader Xi Jinping "are working together to give massive Chinese phone company, ZTE, a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost. Commerce Department has been instructed to get it done!"

...The widening trade dispute between the world's two biggest economies has taken a toll on both sides. U.S. companies that export to China have seen their goods held up at China's ports amid tougher inspections. The block on ZTE was a heavy blow for the company but also hurt the U.S. companies it buys from. According to IDC data, ZTE sources more than 40 percent of its components from the U.S., creating a multibillion-dollar revenue stream for suppliers like Qualcomm and Intel.

...The U.S. imposed the penalty on Shenzhen-based ZTE after discovering that the company, which had paid a $1.2 billion fine in the case, had failed to discipline employees involved and paid them bonuses instead.

..."Our intelligence agencies have warned that ZTE technology and phones pose a major cyber security threat. You should care more about our national security than Chinese jobs," (California Rep. Adam Schiff, the top Democrat on the intelligence committee) said in a tweet directed at Trump.

https://abcnews.go.com/Technology/wireStory/trump-us-penalized-chinese-company-5...

Trump considering 25 percent tax on car imports, citing national security
DOUG PALMER and BEN WHITE | 05/23/2018 07:36 PM EDT

President Donald Trump wants to put a 25 percent tariff on imports of automobiles under a similar authority that allowed him to slap duties on imports of steel and aluminum in order to protect U.S. national security, a senior administration official confirmed.

At Trump’s request, the Commerce Department on Wednesday launched an investigation into the national threat of imported automobiles, trucks and auto parts, the first step toward imposing the tariffs, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement.

“There is evidence suggesting that, for decades, imports from abroad have eroded our domestic auto industry,” Ross said.

Trump is threatening to impose the penalties at the same time that U.S. negotiators are trying to get Canada and Mexico to agree to demands that would overhaul NAFTA’s auto rules...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/23/trump-tariffs-car-imports-national-sec...

>35 margd: Do these imports include my so-called American Ford Fusion that was built in Mexico? Or the Nissan Sentra I used to have that was built in Tennessee? Or do they judge what's American by where the profit goes?

Build a better car for the price and people will buy it.

Trump hits allies with metal tariffs; Mexico, EU and Canada vow to retaliate
Jeremy Diamond and Julia Horowitz | May 31, 2018

http://money.cnn.com/2018/05/31/news/economy/united-states-steel-aluminum-tariff...

Imposing tariffs risks relationships with allies, negotiating partners, and jobs at home. According to article below, the entire WTO-supervised trade system could be at risk if other countries use the "national security" loophole. In particular, US may lose credibility in opposing China's overly expansive interpretation of national security, e.g., in cyberworld and in equating economic security with national security.

The Commerce Department's Self-Defeating Conception of National Security
Robert D. Williams | February 26, 2018

...WTO law “allows countries to raise trade barriers for reasons of national security, without being liable to WTO discipline, on the understanding that they will do so only rarely, in cases of genuine need. To use national security as a pretext for garden-variety protectionism ... invites tit-for-tat behavior by other trading nations.”

...China’s overly expansive interpretation of national security. China’s Cybersecurity Law and related implementing measures are criticized for “associating intellectual property rights with national security.” China policies “issued in the name of enhancing cybersecurity or protecting national security impose unwarranted IP disclosure conditions and contain provisions requiring related IP rights to be owned and developed in China.” Similarly, the USTR report flags concerns about China’s draft Foreign Investment Law and related policies that suggest “China intends to pursue a broad definition of ‘national security,’ to include ‘economic security,’ under its national security review regime.”

...In short, U.S. officials have made clear they will not continue to tolerate Chinese protectionism justified by an overly expansive appeal to national security that elides any distinction from economic welfare. The U.S. government’s persistence in denouncing Chinese commercial cyber theft and the USTR critique of China’s WTO compliance are clear illustrations of this position. The Commerce Department’s Section 232 reports on steel and aluminum, however, raise questions about the consistency and durability of the U.S. position, thus opening the door for Chinese officials to turn the tables and call foul on the United States.

President Trump recently tweeted that “economic security is not merely RELATED to national security – economic security IS national security.” Now he must consider whether taking action under Section 232 risks surrendering U.S. trade strategy to a reciprocity of hypocrisy....

https://www.lawfareblog.com/commerce-departments-self-defeating-conception-natio...

Republicans gobsmacked by Trump’s tariffs
BURGESS EVERETT | 05/31/2018

GOP lawmakers thought the president was going to hit China — not key U.S. allies.

... The GOP’s free-traders were mollified this spring as the Trump administration exempted U.S. allies from steel and aluminum tariffs imposed on other countries like China. But on Thursday, that all changed as President Donald Trump imposed 10 percent tariffs on aluminum imports and 25 percent tariffs on steel imports from the European Union, Canada and Mexico.

The move thrusts the GOP back into an internecine war over free-trade policies that have defined the party for decades, just as Republicans mobilize for a hotly contested midterm campaign...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/05/31/trump-tariffs-canada-mexico-republican...

39 contd. "We should beware of the demagogues who are willing to declare a trade war against our friends, weakening our economy, our national security, and the entire free world, all while cynically waving the American flag."

President Reagan's Radio Address on Canadian Elections and Free Trade on November 26, 1988 (5:34)
Reagan Library
Published on Oct 10, 2017

Full Title: President Reagan's Radio Address to the Nation on Canadian Elections and Free Trade from Rancho Del Cielo in Santa Barbara, California on November 26, 1988

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=39&v=Tp1T7kPEdDY

Mexico Knows How to Fight a Trade War
Shannon K O'Neil | June 1, 2018

Its retaliatory tariffs will swat at Trump’s political base.

...Mexico is prepared for this fight...It immediately announced punitive measures. Certain types of steel made the list; so did lamps, cheese, pork, apples, grapes and cranberries. This menagerie wasn’t haphazard. Instead, it was designed to gain both economic justice and political leverage, targeting key congressional districts and Trump supporters.

...Mexico has been down this road before, during a decade-long battle over cross-border trucking...After years of cajoling, after the creation and then cancellation of pilot programs, Mexico in 2009 finally invoked retaliatory tariffs to the tune of $2.4 billion a year. Nearly 100 products, ranging from Oregon Christmas trees, Wisconsin paper and Washington pears to New York jewelry, Florida orange juice and Idaho potatoes, were hit with levies of 5 to 25 percent. As the tariffs rose, so too did the constituent phone calls to influential representatives and senators of both parties. Two years later, the Obama administration developed a new pilot program to allow vetted trucking companies and their drivers to cross the border, and the tariffs ended.

As a trade tit-for-tat begins anew, the Mexican government is deploying the same strategy. This time it isn’t alone. Several U.S. manufacturers along now well-developed supply chains are supporting their neighbor. Canada and the EU are joined in the fight, and their initial lists look notably similar to Mexico’s initial trucking foray, penalizing cosmetics, manicure and pedicure products, felt tip pens, toilet paper, and hair products among dozens of others items produced in targeted congressional districts of influential House members...

...a mix of patriotism and justified indignation has overridden anxieties among Mexico’s manufacturers.

(Even in Mexican election campaign, current President has support of his opponents in countering US tariffs.)

(Counter-tariffs are enough to show other countries mean business, but not an escalation.)

www.bloomberg.com

African nations are fed up with the West’s hand-me-downs. But it’s tough to keep them out.
Max Bearak and David J. Lynch | May 29, 2018

...Most of America’s castoff clothes are sold by the Salvation Army, Goodwill and others to private companies. Bales of used clothing are then shipped by the container-load, mostly to sub-Saharan Africa, in what has become a billion-dollar industry.

African governments have become increasingly fed up. What many in the West think of as a gesture of generosity, they say, is preventing them from building their own apparel industries. In March 2016, four East African countries decided to raise tariffs on used clothing, in some cases to as much as 20 times the previous rate.

The American used-clothing lobby sounded the alarm, and last year, the Trump administration began investigating whether the four nations were violating an 18-year-old trade agreement with the United States. Under pressure, the East African governments lowered their tariffs to previous rates.

Except Rwanda.

...(Todd Moss, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for African affairs who is now a fellow at the Center for Global Development, a think tank) and others have criticized the Trump administration’s actions. “It’s particularly harmful to see the world’s largest economy — for tiny, irrelevant mercantilist reasons — choose to punish and bully an African partner,” Moss said.

Trump administration officials say tougher enforcement of international agreements is essential to rebalancing trade policy to benefit American workers. And U.S. officials note that the East African countries have to stick to what they agreed upon when they joined the accord, which offers them many benefits.

...In the short term, (Chinese imports, not locally manufacturers) could be the beneficiary of the trade dispute...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/africa/african-nations-are-fed-up-with-the-...

With housing boom, US consumers paid for 2017 Trump tariffs on Canadian softwood lumber.
Similarly, with strong global economy and North American industrial sector, US consumers may absorb increased prices for steel and aluminum.
Not to mention counter-tariffs promised by Mexico, Canada, and Europe...
I should cross-post this in Trump base thread. :-(

Donald Trump Takes To Twitter To Slam Canada's Softwood Lumber Sector
This comes a day after he imposed steel and aluminum tariffs on Canada.
06/01/2018

...Canada's softwood lumber sector has been dealing with the latest U.S. tariffs to hit the industry for nearly a year, handing over more than $200 million in 2017 to cover duties of about 20 per cent of the value of all exports.

Hundreds of millions more is expected to be deposited in 2018 as well.

However, the Canadian industry has been less damaged than had been anticipated as duties imposed by the U.S. government have been passed on to U.S. consumers in the form of higher prices.

Soaring demand for lumber from the booming U.S. housing construction sector, where housing starts were higher than they have been in a decade last year, has helped pushed prices to record highs.

(Royal Bank of Canada) senior economist Nathan Janzen says the same forces could be at play with tariffs on steel and aluminum as a strong global economy and North American industrial sector could absorb prices that already increased when the first tariffs were imposed on several countries.

The (Cdn) federal government said Thursday that it would impose dollar-for-dollar counter-tariffs on $16.6 billion worth of United States goods in response to exemptions for Canada, Mexico and Europe from import duties of 25 per cent on steel and 10 per cent on aluminum...

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/01/donald-trump-takes-to-twitter-to-slam-c...

U.S., China End Latest Trade Talks Without Settlement
China warns if U.S. introduces threatened tariffs, any results from the negotiations won’t go into effect
Lingling Wei and Bob Davis | June 3, 2018

The U.S. and China moved closer to imposing tariffs on one another as negotiators made little progress in talks and Beijing threatened that it won’t abide by a deal on farm and other products if the U.S. goes ahead with sanctions. (No joint statement at end of meeting.)

U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross and Liu He, China’s economic czar, led the weekend negotiations in Beijing, after several days of talks by lower level officials. Discussions centered on getting China to carry out recent promises to buy more American farm and energy products.

White House statements last week that it plans to impose tariffs on $50 billion in Chinese goods and other penalties clouded the talks, causing Chinese officials to dig in their heels, according to people with knowledge of the discussions from both sides.

...For Beijing, the outcry from U.S. allies (on steel and aluminum tariffs) is providing additional reasons not to cut a deal with the U.S. now, according to the people with knowledge of the discussions. It’s also creating an opportunity for China to bill itself as a guardian of the global trading order and line up support from other countries. “China is willing to increase imports from all countries including the U.S., which is beneficial to the two countries and to the whole world,” Xinhua’s Sunday statement said.

...The renewed White House threats, in Beijing’s eyes, ended a truce the two sides declared less than two weeks earlier and put Mr. Ross’s mission at risk...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-china-end-latest-trade-talks-without-settlement...

_________________________________________________________

In run-up to Group of Seven meeting this week in Quebec, "finance ministers from the six non-U.S. members of the Group of Seven industrialized nations—Canada, France, Germany, the U.K., Italy and Japan—released a joint statement Saturday conveying their “unanimous concern and disappointment” with the U.S. decision last week to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imported from the European Union, Canada and Mexico."

https://www.wsj.com/articles/g7-members-issue-closing-communique-condemning-u-s-...

Canada rejects Trump's "national security" tariffs, peoposed 5-year sunset clause to NAFTA, and now, proposal for bilateral deal to replace NAFTA...

NAFTA Negotiations: Canada Rejects U.S. Push For Bilateral Trade Deal
U.S. President Donald Trump "hates multilateral" treaties, his adviser told Fox News.
Andy Blatchford and Mike Blanchfield | June 5, 2018

..."(Trump) is very seriously contemplating kind of a shift in the NAFTA negotiations," Larry Kudlow, director of Trump's National Economic Council, said Tuesday on the Fox News program "Fox and Friends."

"His preference now — and he asked me to convey this — is to actually negotiate with Mexico and Canada separately. He prefers bilateral negotiations and he's looking at two much different countries."

...several Trudeau cabinet ministers insisted Tuesday that Ottawa remains singularly focused on a three-country deal.

"We want a trilateral agreement — we've always said this," said International Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne.

"We know it works, we know it underpins a very integrated supply chain. So, when you talk about this issue you have to look at reality — the reality is that over the last 24 years we have built a very integrated supply chain, which has been good for (the) economy, good for consumers, good for workers on all sides."...

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/05/nafta-negotiations-canada-rejects-u-s-p...

Koch brothers campaign for free trade champions

Billionaire brothers launch multimillion-dollar campaign on Trumps' tariffs
U.S. President Donald Trump's trade offensive just drew its first serious opposition at home. And that's good news for Canada, policy experts say
Sharon Kirkey and Washington Post | June 5, 2018

Koch brothers, Charles and David...political network is launching what its executives are framing as a multi-year, multimillion-dollar campaign to knock down the billions of dollars in tariffs the Trump administration is moving to impose on imports from around the globe.

The push by the deep-pocketed conservative powerhouse threatens, for one, to reorder the debate around the president’s trade agenda. Republican lawmakers seeking re-election in a perilous environment have been largely reluctant to challenge the president. The Koch network is offering an incentive, demanding candidates fight for free trade to win its potentially make-or-break backing.

“We’ll be supporting those folks who will be champions, not just passive supporters,” James Davis, executive vice-president of Koch-backed Freedom Partners, said in an interview.

...David Koch, 76, announced Tuesday he is stepping down for health reasons.

It’s unclear where exactly the Koch organizations will direct their firepower, but it seems possible they could intervene in Republican primaries, an unwelcome development for Republicans already in a tough political environment.

The campaign represents a threat to Trump’s presidency.

...More than backing off of (tariffs), the Koch groups said in a Monday statement of principles that the U.S. should embrace new free trade deals by updating the North American Free Trade Agreement and moving to forge pacts with the United Kingdom, the EU, and Pacific Rim nations...

http://nationalpost.com/news/billionaire-brothers-take-on-trumps-tariffs

Trump finally did the one thing that will drive powerful Republicans away
Heather Timmons | June 06, 2018

...A bill that kills Trump’s trade tariffs

This afternoon, a bipartisan group of senators introduced a new bill that takes away Trump’s right to pass tariffs on products that the Department of Commerce deem important to national security. The bill would require any intended tariffs to be approved by Congress. It would also be retroactive for the past two years—meaning it could rescind last month’s controversial steel and aluminum tariffs.

The Kochs take away their checkbook

...the deep-pocketed Koch brothers, Republican kingmakers...demands are aimed specifically at easing Trump’s protectionism, as well as dismantling a host of long-standing US policies, some of which have been popular with industries and voters for decades:

The president should lift steel and aluminum tariffs, drop proposed tariffs on China, and “avoid any new tariffs.”
The president should renegotiate NAFTA, and reenter talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Congress should abolish farm and green energy subsidies, and repeal the “buy American” rules on federal projects.
Congress should pass an amendment to limit the president’s ability to pass tariffs.

...Anyone who doesn’t back (Koch's) free trade principles is “going to have a harder time getting support from our network”...unlikely to support Congress members in heated 2018 midterm races who back Trump’s trade stance...could even mean funding Democrats sometimes, the Koch official said. Politicians who support free-trade principles, regardless of party, “are people we’re going to want to work with and work with more often”...

https://qz.com/1297547/trumps-trade-tariffs-finally-drove-republicans-and-the-ko...
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White House’s Nafta (sic) Approach Frustrates Businesses, Panicked Emails Show
Ana Swanson | June 6, 2018

...Documents show corporations and trade groups — such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Association of Manufacturers, or NAM — struggling to get their voices heard within a supposedly business-friendly administration and sending increasingly panicked emails to the United States trade representative’s office about its approach to rewriting the pact.

...The White House approach has fueled widespread criticism from both business and Republican lawmakers, who have publicly and privately tried to persuade trade officials not to undermine a pact that is critical to companies in their states.

...The rift between the business community and the administration stems largely from the differing views about the benefits of Nafta (sic). Mr. Trump’s America First policy has prompted the United States to make demands like scrapping investment protections that large companies favor but that the president’s administration criticizes as corporate welfare. The White House has also proposed drastically raising the threshold for the proportion of an automobile that needs to be manufactured in North America to qualify for Nafta’s (sic) zero tariffs.

Those demands have angered Canada and Mexico and worried many businesses, which argue that the administration’s policies will actually end up hurting the people they intend to help — including manufacturers.

As rumors of a potential withdrawal swirled last spring, (Ms. Dempsey of the National Association of Manufacturers) pointed out in an email to the administration that over one-third of American manufactured exports were sold just to Canada and Mexico. “I can’t emphasize enough that North America is U.S. manufacturing’s largest market,” she said.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/06/us/politics/trump-nafta-businesses-frustrated...

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Tariffs and ‘countermeasures’: What consumers on both sides of the border could pay more for
Adam Frisk and Amanda Connolly | June 1, 2018

...June 1

Essentially, consumers can expect to pay a little more for American-made products largely made of steel and aluminum.

Vehicles

Walid Hejazi, associate professor of international business at the University of Toronto’s Rotman School of Management, suggests that Canadians will likely see a bump in the price of U.S.-made vehicles.

“The auto supply chain is completely intertwined. A cost increase of this magnitude will drive consumers directly into the arms of Japanese carmakers,” Unifor (Cdn auto union) national president Jerry Dias said...

Recreation vehicles (boats, snowmobiles)

In March, U.S.-based National Marine Manufacturers (NMMA) also released a statement saying aluminum tariffs will make boat production more expensive...“The implementation of these aluminum tariffs, in combination with the additional, even larger tariffs on aluminum sheet proposed by the Department of Commerce, will drive up the costs of the aluminum used to manufacture more than 111,000 aluminum boats, such as pontoons and fishing boats, which make up 43 per cent of new powerboat sales each year.”

Polaris, which manufactures snowmobiles and all-terrain vehicles, said in March it could expect a bump in cost of about one per cent...spends more than $300 million annually on steel and aluminum...

Canned products

Products packaged in aluminum, such as beer, could cost more for Canadians after the tariffs are implemented.

...PepsiCo, Coca-Cola, the Beer Institute, etc. (joint letter) claimed that a 10 per cent tariff on aluminum would cost beer and beverage producers $256.3 million, a 20 per cent tariff would cost $512.5 million and a 30 per cent tariff would run $768.8 million.

Canada’s countermeasures on July 1

...Forty-four types of steel and steel alloy products will be hit with the 25 per cent tariff.

As well, 84 types of other products are being slapped with the 10 per cent tariff...Yogurt, coffee, prepared meals like frozen pizza and dinners, detergent, whiskies, beer, lawnmowers, heaters, sleeping bags, mattresses, and a range of office supplies including felt-tip pens...non-household dishwashing machines, combined fridge-freezers, household laundry machines, sailboats, motorboats, chocolate, maple syrup, licorice, toffee, nut butters, jams, orange juice, cucumbers and gherkins, soy sauce, ketchup, mustard, mayonnaise, flavoured water, shaving products, hair lacquers, manicure and pedicure products, and soups.

All those tariffs will work by imposing a levy on manufacturers when they ship their goods north of the border and in turn, those companies will likely pass on those costs to consumers.

...(Cdn) officials stressed on Thursday they took care to curate a list of targets that have available alternatives.

...That means that if your favourite brand of ketchup ends up costing more on July 1, you can pick another brand (either a Canadian brand or one from a country that is not the United States) and expect to still pay the regular price.

...Trump may be promoting a policy of Buy American but for Canadian consumers concerned about tariff-related price hikes, the best advice as of July 1 may be to do exactly the opposite.

https://globalnews.ca/news/4247659/trump-tariffs-canadas-countermeasures-consume...
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Interesting that ketchup is on Canadian list of tariffs. Years ago, Heinz moved a major plant out of Ontario, giving French's (as in mustard) an opening. Using Canadian tomatoes, French's became many Canadians' patriotic ketchup choice. It's possible if this trade tiff goes on for a while, there will be long range losses for US companies innocent of Trump's trade and tariffs strategy... Boycott of Heinz ketchup in favor of French's was started by "some average guy" posting on Facebook from Barrie, Ontario.

Why French’s ketchup is here to stay (sorry, Heinz)
Wrapping your product in the Canadian flag is typically a desperate measure, with short-lived benefits. For French’s, it’s working.
Aaron Hutchins | Nov 2, 2017

https://www.macleans.ca/economy/business/why-frenchs-ketchup-is-here-to-stay-sor...

Trump complains about traveling to Canada ahead of Singapore summit with Kim
Josh Dawsey, Philip Rucker and Ashley Parker | June 6, 2018

President Trump...has mused about finding new ways to punish (Canada) in recent days, frustrated with the country’s retaliatory trade moves...fears attending the Group of Seven summit in rural Charlevoix, Quebec, may not be a good use of his time because he is diametrically opposed on many key issues with his counterparts — and does not want to be lectured by them.

...Aides fear Trump may not sign onto the joint communique that is prepared by participating countries for release at the end of the summit.

...Trump has been focused on his meeting with Kim and views the G-7 summit as a distraction from those preparations. Trump’s itinerary, which could still change, has him departing on Saturday directly from Quebec to Singapore, where he is expected to meet June 12 with Kim...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-complains-about-traveling-to-canad...

ETA_____________________________________________________________

Hope no one gets hurt...

Tight security to keep protesters far from G7 summit
Kevin Dougherty | June 6, 2018

...Protesters are unlikely to startle any world leaders during the June 8-9 meeting. A security force of some 10,000 police and military personnel will make sure they are kept far from the summit at Manoir Richelieu, a luxury resort with dramatic views of the St. Lawrence River.

...Authorities have urged demonstrators to congregate in an official protest zone in a parking lot in La Malbaie, a town about 5 km (3 miles) from the French-style castle resort.

...No protest groups have announced plans to congregate in La Malbaie. They instead are organizing a series of events focused on global trade, migration, the environment, aboriginal rights and other issues in the provincial capital of Quebec City, a two-hour drive from Manoir Richelieu.

...Quebec City Police Chief Robert Pigeon has said he sees a “moderate” risk the protests will turn violent, but has promised to respect the rights of protesters.

Canada’s French-speaking province of Quebec has seen its share of protests.

Quebec City became a flashpoint in the spring of 2001, when tens of thousands of people rallied to protest the Third Summit of the Americas, prompting police to use massive quantities of tear gas to control crowds...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-g7-summit-security/tight-security-to-keep-pro...

While citing national security in establishing tariffs on allies' steel and aluminum:

Trump flouts national security advice in bid to save ZTE
MARTIN MATISHAK | 06/06/2018
https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/06/trump-flouts-national-security-advice-...

--it would seem that the Canadians burned down the White House in 1812 and they need to pay for that too.

>50 lriley: The Canadians (British citizens at the time) burned some barns, I think, but not the White House. ;-)

Nice, though, that Trumpianism sparked some interest in an interesting period of history, as was the earlier French and Indian War:
https://www.vox.com/2018/6/7/17434998/trump-trudeau-white-house-burn-1812

ETA______________________________________________________________

OTOH, in 1813 Americans trashed Toronto:

The Battle of York (later Toronto) Historical Plaque

"...Victorious nonetheless, the Americans occupied York for six days. They looted and set buildings ablaze, including the Parliament Buildings"

http://torontoplaques.com/Pages/Battle_of_York.html
__________________________________________________________________

The Parliamentary mace of Upper Canada (later Ontario) was taken back to Washington and was only returned in 1934 as a goodwill gesture by President Franklin Roosevelt.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_York

Article on US-Canadian military cooperation illustrates why the "national security" rationale for steel and aluminum tariffs was so badly received by Cdn PM Trudeau.

By threatening Canada on trade, Trump risks the greatest defense partnership in US history
Heather Timmons | June 08, 2018
https://qz.com/1295186/g7-donald-trumps-tariffs-on-canada-endanger-a-key-us-mili...

Canadian milk: expensive, hormone-free, sold in bags... (That last one surprises many Americans in Canadian grocery stores.)
But then, I pay a little more in US for hormone-free milk from happier cows and, presumably, happier farmers.

Canada's management of milk supply was protected in original NAFTA. I think the two countries' negotiators had just agreed to some modification, but then Trump blew whole thing up at last moment with 5-year sunset clause for NAFTA.

My sense is that, as with Heinz/French's ketchup, Canadian support for the country's dairy farmers is firming up... Domestic politics are such that Trudeau cannot give even if he wanted to. Actually, a dust-up with a seemingly irrational, insulting Trump might even help Liberals politically, if not too much economic harm comes of it?

_______________________________________________________________

Why Canadian milk infuriates Donald Trump
John Barber | June 9, 2018

... “The system works so incredibly well,” said Bruce Muirhead, associate vice-president and professor of history at the University of Waterloo. “And the big thing about supply management is that it doesn’t cost the government a cent. Consumers pay the full cost of production.”

Domestic critics have called supply management a grotesque distortion of free-market principles, complaining that the comparatively high price of Canadian milk sacrifices the interests of consumers in favour of producers and victimizes the poor. But no consumer or social policy group has taken up the cause, and all six parties currently represented in the House of Commons unanimously support supply management.

As do Canadian consumers: an Ipsos poll this year by the Dairy Farmers of Canada reported that 75% of Canadians support even greater government efforts to defend the industry in the face of current US demands.

As the trade minister, Chrystia Freeland, has pointed out, trade data flatly contradicts the claim that Canadian supply management is ravaging US dairyland – either because it unfairly restricts imports or because it dumps a subsidized surplus in US markets. In 2016, Canada imported dairy products from the US worth five times more than the small amount it exported there. “I would call that a pretty good deal,” she told the House of Commons.

Canadian farmers point out that despite the tariffs that protect them, imports make up 10% of the country’s dairy consumption. By contrast, the US restricts dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption. “That just screams hypocrisy to me,” Muirhead said. “I don’t understand how they can get away with these positions.”

As a recent visitor to Wisconsin, “America’s Dairyland”, where low prices are forcing the closure of hundreds of dairy farms a year, Muirhead said he encountered no resentment against Canada among local farmers. “The president of the Wisconsin Farmers Union told me that what they really wanted was a supply-managed system like ours,” he said.

Dairy deregulation has spread hardship wherever it has been implemented, Muirhead added. “Every single objective indicator says that in the case of dairy you cannot have a system that operates without production controls,” he said. “If you try, you’re basically consigning your farmers to a life of penury – or worse.”

Canada successfully defended the system in its first free trade agreement with the US, and several subsequent ones. But with the full wrath of Trump now focused squarely on the country’s protected farmers, this stubborn remnant of Canadian exceptionalism has never been more fragile.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade...

________________________________________________________________________

The Quality of Canadian Milk

...Hormones: Recombinant bovine growth hormones (rBGH), also known as recombinant bovine somatropin (rbST) are artificial hormones that can increase milk production by 10% to 15% but at some risk to the health of the animals. Although permitted in the US, the use of these hormones is banned in Canada and Europe.

Antibiotics: If ever a dairy cow becomes sick and antibiotics are required, the cow must be clearly identified and her milk properly discarded for a mandatory withdrawal period until the medication has cleared the cow’s system.

A producer who violates these rules is subjected to severe fines...

https://www.dairynutrition.ca/scientific-evidence/experts-summaries/the-quality-...
(a Dairy Farmers of Canada website)

ETA______________________________________________________________________

A guide to understanding the dairy dispute between the U.S. and Canada
Barrie McKenna | Updated November 12, 2017

High tariffs, ultrafiltered milk and supply management play key roles in the dispute

Why are U.S. dairy farmers mad at Canada?

Canada has long maintained a high tariff wall on most dairy products...270 per cent (on milk)...One notable exception is ultrafiltered milk and other protein-rich dairy ingredients used to make dairy products such as cheese and yogurt. North American free-trade rules do not cover these ingredients, so they enter Canada duty-free. And in recent years, U.S. dairies have developed a booming business selling these low-cost products to dairies in Canada ($133-million last year). That all changed about a year ago, when Canadian dairy farmers and producers moved to close the breach in the tariff wall with a new "ingredients strategy." They persuaded regulators to create a new lower-priced class of industrial milk as an incentive to get dairies to produce protein substances in Canada, using Canadian milk. The result was predictable: U.S. imports fell in 2016, and are declining sharply so far this year.

What is ultrafiltered milk?

...New technology has made it easier to separate milk into its component parts and concentrate them by reducing water content...

What is supply management?

...three "pillars" – a tariff wall to block imports, strict quotas that determine how much each farmer can produce and fixed prices paid to producers. The system was created in the 1970s to help stabilize farmers' incomes. But as the food industry has gone global, supply management has faced mounting internal and external pressure...

Will the United States push for an end to supply management in renegotiating NAFTA?

Not likely. When U.S. President Donald Trump rails about the "very unfair things" Canada is doing to U.S. dairy farmers, he is mostly talking about issues such as ultrafiltered milk. The Trump administration set out its priorities for renegotiating the North American free-trade agreement (NAFTA) in a recent letter to members of Congress. In it, the administration said it would seek to reduce various non-tariff barriers to agricultural trade, including rules limiting imports and "unjustified trade restrictions" on new technologies. That is an apparent reference to Canada's ingredients-pricing scheme. But the letter also pledges to "eliminate all export subsidies on agricultural products," which could be interpreted as a challenge to the pricing regime that underpins Canada's dairy industry. That has prompted speculation that Canada could trade away supply management for free trade in softwood lumber.

Why did Donald Trump choose Wisconsin to deliver his dairy tirade against Canada?

Wisconsin is a major dairy-producing state...Mr. Trump won narrowly...home to Republican House speaker Paul Ryan...The tough talk on dairy is also a sop to key Congressional Democrats such as Senate leader Charles Schumer of New York...

Why is supply management so entrenched in Canada?

The dairy industry's political clout should be waning. Just 13 federal ridings have more than 300 dairy farms – eight in Quebec and five in Ontario. ...Canada had nearly 140,000 dairy farms. Today, it has fewer than 12,000... And yet, all three major political parties (and virtually every MP) have vowed to support the system...

How is the growing global milk glut exacerbating Canada-U.S. trade friction?

Canadian ambassador to Washington David MacNaughton has insisted that a global oversupply of milk, not Canada, is to blame for the problems of U.S. dairy farmers. And yet, Canadian dairy farmers...upended by the surge of milk-protein imports, a glut of skim milk and underinvestment in dairy processing. Canada is producing too much milk, but not enough butter, and that is putting downward pressure on overall farm incomes. U.S. farmers, meanwhile, are suffering from overproduction and falling global milk prices. The United States enjoys a large dairy trade surplus with Canada.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/a-guide-to-understanding-the-...

David Frum retweeted:

And now it's even more politically difficult to get rid of supply management, even though it's clearly the right thing to do: it would look like a total capitulation to an ignorant bully.

Emmett Macfarlane @EmmMacfarlane
4:29 PM - 9 Jun 2018

ETA______________________________________________

Trump's tirade sparks calls for calm, promises of support for Trudeau
CTV News Channel: U.S. advisers attack Canada
Lee Berthiaume and Mike Blanchfield | June 10, 2018

Joyce Napier reports on the delicate line Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland is walking with the U.S.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/trump-s-tirade-sparks-calls-for-calm-promises-of...

Billions in U.S. solar projects shelved after Trump panel tariff
Nichola Groom | June 7, 2018

(Reuters) - President Donald Trump’s tariff on imported solar panels has led U.S. renewable energy companies to cancel or freeze investments of more than $2.5 billion in large installation projects, along with thousands of jobs, the developers told Reuters...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-trump-effect-solar-insight/billions-in-u-s-so...

FWIW margd I'm quite a bit pissed off again at Trump. This whole entire kerfuffle takes ridiculous past the point of absurd and into the realm of imbecelic. Trump apparently made that remark to Trudeau or a Canadian representative about the War of 1812 and Canada's part in that apparently was burning the White House down and this is a lame reason for hitting Canada with steel and aluminum tarriff's now. Seriously I wish someone would burn the White House down now and if he were still inside so be it. I'm not a fan of Washington DC though or our govt. so take that for what it's worth. If nothing else this presidency has proven to me one thing--we could get by just fine without any national centralized govt. at all---because this is dysfunction at a higher level than I've ever seen and yet despite all that people are finding ways to carry on.

Sounds like allies have Canada's back, and business interests (Koch Bro, Chamber of Commerce, auto co.), states (esp MI?), as well as politicians (Rs as well as Ds) will stop this nonsense, but hopefully before lasting damage is done to both economies... Tariffs and trade wars are certain to get peoples' attention sooner or later... WHAT do they teach at Wharton??

Win, win, win: stick it to Canada and US newspapers, reward crony (and his 250 jobs)?
Lose: thousands of US newspaper jobs? Some losses in Canada? (Not discussed in article.)
David Frum: The story is even worse than the headline. All done at the behest of a private equity firm that had overpaid for a Washington State paper mill

Trump's commerce department put a tariff on Canadian paper that jacked up all U.S. newsprint prices
Erin Arvedlund, | June 11, 2018

A single tariff benefiting one paper factory in Washington state could prompt the loss of thousands of U.S. newspaper jobs, industry executives say.

The ripple effect started with One Rock Capital Partners, a New York private equity firm that bought a paper mill in Longview, Wash., and then petitioned the Trump commerce department for tariffs against Canadian paper. That one mill employs about 250 people.

The result? The equity firm won punishing newsprint tariffs that have pushed up newsprint prices by about 30 percent. Already newspapers around the U.S. have begun making thousands of layoffs, according to the News Media Alliance, a trade group...

... Canada, which produces about 60 percent of all newsprint. Most Canadian imports of paper go to the Midwest and northeastern regions of the U.S., said Paul Boyle, senior vice president of public policy at the News Media Alliance.

“The one mill and the private equity firm are not supported in their efforts by any other U.S. paper mills or the American Forest and Paper Association,”

...The plant’s owner, One Rock Capital, “may be using the petitions as a means of increasing the short-term value of this one mill, without any regard for the dramatic negative implications for U.S. newspapers in thousands of small cities and towns,” the News Media Alliance wrote in a letter to (Commerce Secretary Wilbur) Ross...

http://www.philly.com/philly/business/trump-commerce-paper-mill-newsprint-tariff...

Trump says he’ll punish ‘the people of Canada’ because of Trudeau’s news conference
Daniel Dale and Alex Ballingall | June 12, 2018

...“That’s going to cost a lot of money for the people of Canada. He learned. You can’t do that. You can’t do that,” Trump said Tuesday in Singapore after meeting with North Korean dictator Kim Jong Un.

...Trump’s criticism of Trudeau stood in stark contrast to his effusive praise of Kim. He called the dictator “very talented,” “very smart” and “a great personality” who “loves his people.”

“We have developed a very special bond,” Trump said of Kim.

The unprecedented public insults of Trudeau from Kudlow and Navarro, particularly Navarro’s “special place in hell” remark, drew widespread condemnation across party lines on Capitol Hill on Monday.

“I thought he should have kept his big mouth shut, because I don’t think that helps us in foreign policy. And frankly, I think that’s out of line,” Senate Finance Committee chairman Orrin Hatch, a Utah Republican, told reporters.

“I’m pretty sure that circles of hell are not reserved for Canadians proposing retaliatory tariffs,” said Texas Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, who was born in Calgary...

https://www.thestar.com/news/world/2018/06/12/we-just-shook-hands-trump-confused...

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I feel a bit sorry for Larry Kudlow, who is yet another person felled by association with the Donald. I suspect he was pushing for free trade at G7 only to see it fall apart at last minute, perhaps courtesy of tariff fan Peter Navarro. Kudlow then had to scramble to support The Boss? And ended up suffering a heart attack?

But most of all I feel sorry for workers and businesses in Canada and the US who will suffer, if this nonsense doesn't end soon.

Trump economic adviser Kudlow to stay in hospital after heart attack
Reuters Staff | June 12, 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-kudlow/trump-economic-adviser-kudlo...

Talk of Congress limiting Trumps ability to impose tariffs is premature. The amendment to another bill has been blocked.

https://www.rawstory.com/2018/06/senate-will-not-poke-bear-trump-passing-tariff-...

U.S. Prepares to Proceed With Tariffs on Chinese Goods
Bob Davis and Lingling Wei | June 13, 2018

Decision on measures awaits President Trump’s final approval

...perhaps as early as Friday—a move that is likely to spark heavy retaliation from Beijing.

...Mr. Trump hasn’t given his final approval and could have second-thoughts about applying heavy pressure on China, the officials said, particularly because the U.S. wants Beijing’s cooperation in its efforts to get North Korea to give up its nuclear weapons.

...he signaled after his summit with Mr. Kim on Tuesday that he was continuing his hard line.

“I have to do what I have to do,” he said at a press conference. “We have a tremendous deficit in trade with China, and we have to do something about it.”...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-preparing-to-proceed-with-tariffs-on-chinese-go...

FWIW as the United States evolved its economy we gradually put in restrictions against child labor, economic wage exploitation and bad safety and environmental practices amongst other things. Those are just things. It was always imperfectly applied particularly in areas of remuneration to women and minorities. What would our country be like if someone wasn't being exploited somehow? But---much of the deindustrialization and defactorization that first picked up real momentum in the Reagan years and then got another big push in the Clinton years particularly with the Nafta and has continued unabated to this day and is determined by large wealth entities such as multi-national corporations and banks to sidestep those kinds of restrictions--which are just restrictions. We've allowed our industry to be outsourced to third world economies that don't care about pollution or wage exploitation, safe working conditions or child labor....it's to the benefit of investment banks and of multinationals and anyone who profit shares with those kinds of entities. Beyond that we've emasculated unions and rolled back all kinds of regulations that use to benefit common people who actually worked for a living and it's hallowed out our middle class. It's made the super wealthy--people like Trump even wealthier. It's given them more power to buy the kinds of legislation they want---to set up the kind of economy they want. Wealth disparity just didn't happen. It was planned.

People still need jobs. Trump touts his employment numbers which are pretty much skewed by all kinds of factors but to be fair his last few predecessors all did the same. They rely on bullshit numbers....and the fact is being employed is one thing--being fully employed is another--getting a living wage is another---getting paid a middle class income is another--getting real benefits with your job still another--a pension? another. I'm afraid that Trump does really give a shit about all that but OTOH looking at his predecessors I don't think very many at least after maybe LBJ did either.

Quite often though I think Trump does 'things' just to be seen as 'doing things'. More often than not I don't really think he puts any real energy into understanding what he's doing or even why it should be done. He's kind of like a lord of chaos. The 'shit happens' guy.

...Canada, Mexico and the U.S. all produce components that cross borders multiple times to serve customers in all three markets. For example, over 67 percent of the components of a Ford Taurus assembled in Mexico are produced by American workers, with the final product shipped to the U.S. and booked as a Mexican export...

http://thehill.com/opinion/finance/391359-trade-war-with-canada-the-apex-of-stup...

#63--which is to say that the Nafta integrated the three economies for better and worse. And it's been 24 + years now and even if you were as anti-Nafta as I was you have to recognize that fact--that period of time and that whatever ill effects that came with that agreement have much more than less run their course--that those effected the worse have either moved or are in the graveyard. There is a point to letting that battle go. It's newer trade deals that sell off jobs for corporate profits that we should be worrying about. Taking us out of the Nafta at this point will accomplish something but it's a going without a doubt be a very negative accomplishment for the people of the three separate countries. By trying to dominate our two partners in that agreement though Trump is in fact at least IMO declaring economic war on them. Beyond that it's the more powerful economy trying to intimidate smaller economies---the tactics of a bully and a coward is the way I would think some other peoples might look at this.

>64 lriley: I worry that under the current administration, our country has become anti-Mexico and -Canada. Our closest neighbors are being treated like crap. The President has nothing good to say about the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, but waxes lyrical in praise to Kim Jung Un and Putin. What's wrong with this picture? A saw a meme on Facebook saying, "Finally, a President who will stand up to Canada". As if Canada has ever been a real threat to us other than in the Revolution or the War of 1812. We've been a threat to them more often through our invasions.

Undiplomatically pushing our allies aside is short-sighted and does nothing to "make America great again." Rather, we will be pushed to the side by other countries able and willing to fill the power vacuum.

#65--he feels more comfortable with the kind of leadership of Kim or Putin is what it says to me. He doesn't know shit or care much about how a functioning democratic system should work. He is one of those types who thinks total control is the way to go. This is not something out of the blue with him---look at his 'Apprentice' show. I never watched an episode mind you but when it was going on you'd see clips about it all over. And Donald had total control over how it worked and who wound up winning. He doesn't want to be saddled with congress writing, debating, legislating or any of that shit--he doesn't care about fair or clean elections really--but really how many politicians do these days? He'd prefer being a dictator so I'm not surprised at all that he finds it easier to work with people Kim and Putin.

I have to say that people used to asked me often if after I'd retired I'd be moving down south. That never appealed to me at all. I like the warmer weather for sure but there's also this idea that I have that the further south you go in the United States the crazier people get. I'd tell them if I permanently moved anywhere it would be northwards. I've always found Canadians to be very nice by the way, more tolerant than Americans---though keeping in mind I've only been to Ontario and Nova Scotia for any serious time--a couple day trips into Quebec and a day trip to Victoria B.C. If movement was easier to accomplish I could see living in Ontario or Nova Scotia though.

#53 Remember Cdn boycott of Heinz? Below's an effort to spark boycott of Trump products and outlets that sell them.

How Canadians can boycott Donald Trump
Scott Gilmore | Jun 10, 2018

Scott Gilmore: Here’s a list of companies owned by Trump and his family, as well as companies that sell Trump goods. Let’s hit him where it hurts, shall we?...

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/how-canadians-can-boycott-donald-trump/

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#58 Remember the newsprint tariff? I see on FB that some Cdn is peddling toilet paper blazoned with Trump's image.

and away we go:

Trump OKs around $50 billion in tariffs on Chinese goods
Bob Davis & Peter Nicholas | June 14, 2018

...WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump approved tariffs on about $50 billion of Chinese goods...as the U.S. ratchets up its trade fight with Beijing over China’s alleged pressure on U.S. firms to transfer technology to Chinese partners.

The approval followed a 90-minute meeting on Thursday of senior White House officials, national-security officials and senior representatives of the Treasury, Commerce Department, U.S. Trade Representative’s Office. (Not free trade Larry Kudlow who is recuperating fat home after G7 fiasco.)

It wasn’t clear when the tariffs would go into effect. Beijing has said that it intends to assess tariffs on a corresponding amount of U.S. goods.

USTR expects to announce the goods subject to tariffs on Friday and publish them in the Federal Register next week, the people familiar with the matter said. The affected imports would face 25% tariffs; the products are expected to be similar to those on a preliminary list that USTR released in early April.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-oks-around-50-billion-in-tariffs-on-chin...

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Trump, whose business consisted of bilateral deals, apparently wants to lead us away from rules-based, multi-lateral trade, which underpins relative peace and prosperity that we enjoy at least imperfectly in patches. (Per Robert Wright's Nonzero: The Logic of Human Destiny and others):

Opinion: Trump’s trade threats are becoming counterproductive
Amitrajeet A. Batabyal | June 11, 2018

...a rules-based international trading system, known as the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, or GATT, which came into force in 1948. Its goal was to eliminate the kind of harmful trade protectionism that had sharply reduced global trade during the Great Depression with the aim of quickly restoring the global economy’s health after so much devastation.

Almost a half century of negotiations to improve the agreement culminated in the creation of the World Trade Organization in 1995. The lynchpin of the modern rules-based international trading system, the WTO now includes 164 nations that together conduct more than 96% of the world’s trade.
Three key attributes

This system has worked so well for so long because the WTO and its biggest champions, such as the U.S., made three interrelated attributes integral to their trade policies. That is, its members:

• reduced uncertainty by creating predictable trade policies

• created an environment that facilitates decision-making — particularly in the long term — by consumers and producers and

• placed credible and legal directives that are clearly understood by allies and by those who are not.

Even though the U.S. played a salient role in the creation of both the GATT and the WTO, Trump’s trade policy has not followed these guidelines. To me ,he seems more interested in wreaking havoc with the current global trading system than with ensuring its continued viability. And he’s frequently — and very recently — intimated that he might even withdraw the U.S. from the WTO.

Trump seems to think that by issuing tariff threats, being unpredictable, and viewing foreign countries — even allies — as rival businesses he can extract concessions from trading partners. Instead, such tactics are proving to be counterproductive...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-trade-threats-are-becoming-counterprodu...

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Opinion: President Trump shows he can tear down, but can he also rebuild?
Fred Kempe | June 12, 2018

...Are we watching just another episode of the ongoing Trump drama that we now know so well? The real-estate mogul, and now commander-in-chief, deploys disruptive tactics to seek maximum negotiating leverage before walking back from the precipice of failure to close the deal?

Or are we witnessing the U.S.-provoked unraveling of the global order of systems and institutions so painstakingly built after World War II? Though flawed and in need of remodeling, that construct has protected American interests and brought an unprecedented level of global peace and prosperity over the past seven decades...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/president-trump-shows-he-can-tear-down-but-can...

Trump’s tariffs are already backfiring
Catherine Rampell | June 14, 2018

(With Whirlpool-Maytag merger + washing machine tariffs, not even including impacts of new steel tariffs)

...This spring, laundry equipment prices skyrocketed 17 percent, the biggest increase on record. It’s hard to see how higher prices expand shoppers’ choices.

When you aggregate all those price increases across the 10 million washers sold annually in the United States, consumers will collectively pay hundreds of thousands of dollars per year for each job supposedly created or saved. Which is many multiples of what factory workers typically earn...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trumps-tariffs-are-already-backfiring/20...

Inflation or recession in US--what will it be?? Depends on how accommodating Fed will be?

Trump's economic management - big spending, big deficits, high tariffs - bears similarity to first-term Richard Nixon, see this I wrote some yrs ago. https://www.weeklystandard.com/david-frum/nixonomics … Nixon had an accommodating Fed. Will Trump? If yes, more inflation. If no, probably early recession.

...Net of Trump-induced inflation (tariffs & deficits), between May 2017 & May 2018, the average hourly wage increased 0.0%

(Donald J trump: Jobs numbers are the BEST in 44 years. )

David Frum @davidfrum 15 Jun 2018

Among the problems I have with the WTO and the GATT agreement. They are anti-labor and anti-environment and anti-democratic. They are not inclusive of voices outside the spheres of politics, finance and business. It's for the oldest old boys clubs on the planet. It's all about wealth and power.

True, but they can and should be fixed. Tariffs to benefit one equity firm which purchased a newsprint plant and mergers of washing machine co. don't much benefit workers (0% wage increase, costly jobs), nor consumers (17% price increase), nor environment, I think...

#72--it's not just a battle about wealth disparity in the United States--that's only a small part of the battle over wealth and where it ends up all around the globe. There's wealth disparity between countries and the peoples that live in them and the working population of them are exploited constantly against each other. Exploiting Mexico's cheaper labor force IMO was the big reason the Nafta came about at all. If Mexico had had an economy more on par with Canada or the United States it wouldn't have been a big deal.....and within two years the Mexican peso collapsed and Congress moved in to protect...that is to bail out large American investors like investment banks promising never ever to do that ever again (yes, I know that'a a never plus two ever's)--next time the big banks fail they're on their own. That was around 1995/96--so in 2008 what happens? In 2008 we hear more of the never ever ever.....and we'll hear it again some day.

Anyway there cannot be fair trade if there is not fair compensation to working people wherever in the world you live. It's not fair as well when a country can get away with polluting the crap out of earth, water and air....and the United States certainly does its fair share of that but at least there are some standards whether they're followed or not. There should be no child factory/industrial labor anywhere.......or wealth entities getting richer off of prison labor. Steps should be taken everywhere to do as much as possible to make more dangerous jobs safe. If you want a fair world economy you have to strive for these things. I don't think anyone really is though.

As an employer Trump has proven to be an exploiter himself--so anyone thinking he's really got good intentions is out to lunch....and the tariffs to Canada are just more the kind of idiocy we've come to expect from him. China I would think is going to be a bit than he can chew off. I don't see him winning a trade war with them. I see him losing it.

At odds with Trump over trade, Canadians say they will avoid U.S. goods: poll
Andrea Hopkins | June 15, 2018 / 5:02 PM / Updated 14 hours ago

Seventy percent of Canadians say they will start looking for ways to avoid buying U.S.-made goods in a threat to ratchet up a trade dispute between Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and U.S. President Donald Trump

...85 percent of Canadians and 72 percent of Americans said they support being in NAFTA, and 44 percent of respondents in both countries said renegotiation of the deal would be a good thing for their country.

...72 percent of Canadians and 57 percent of Americans approved of the way Trudeau had handled the situation, while 14 percent of Canadians and 37 percent of Americans approved of Trump’s behavior.

More than eight in 10 Canadians and seven in 10 Americans worry the situation has damaged bilateral relations.

Canada has vowed to retaliate against U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum with tariffs against a range of U.S. goods, a move supported by 79 percent of Canadians

...Americans opposed escalating the situation. Thirty-one percent of Americans said they favored even stronger tariffs, and 61 percent said other elected U.S. officials should denounce Trump’s statements.

Canadian respondents...88 percent saying they welcomed the support of politicians from other parties for the Liberal government’s decision to push back on tariffs.

While Canadian consumers appeared ready to boycott U.S. goods, 57 percent of Canadians and 52 percent of Americans said Canada should not overreact to Trump’s comments because it was just political posturing...

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-canada-trade/at-odds-with-trump-over-trad...

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And then there are the hotheads. (Unfortunately, every country has them...) This week (a Qubecker?) sent a threat & white powder to US Ambassador to Canada--hope she doesn't cancel Ottawa Embassy's traditional 4th of July garden BBQ, which I understand is a fun event. Also hoping that no road rage directed at my US license plates by rare Cdn not distinguishing between Trump and Americans in general... I did get the finger on a Toronto hwy years back after US sports fans had been rude to Cdn anthem and flag...wasn't aware that I had violated road etiquette, so assuming it was my US license plate that earned me the finger?

If I were a Canadian I would be boycotting American made goods too. Even in the United States (barring groceries) though that's not that hard to do.

I don't think the Nafta hit the Canadian workplace nearly as hard as it did the American workplace. It's remarkable in a way that 24 years after going into effect that 25% of the American public still view it as hurting our country. That's not really a small number. I would think that many of those polled really weren't all that effected or knew many or any who were--or it fell really outside their purview--one of those things like the Vietnam War--you either grew up with it on the nightly news or you didn't. Time heals wounds or it should anyway. At the point where the agreement has been for the last 15 or so years anyway it would be almost pointless for the United States to leave the agreement IMO. What we have here is Mr. Trump trying his mightiest to pick a scab or cut open a scar that's pretty much healed over even if it's still a memory for 25% of those polled. Some people like to see blood flow--one reason for his doing this is to score political points with his base--another would be to dominate lesser but regional economies. Not being overly clever about power he has the mindset of a bully and a dictator. The way he's handling this is the usual mix of bombast and ignorance.

I think most NAFTA impacts in Canada were environmental(?). For example, American investors barred from proceeding with some project or another would sue Canada and the responsible province. I'm no doubt forgetting something--Cdn sugar beet farmers? Before NAFTA I think Cdn exports were more raw materials, but now more value-added stuff? Before NAFTA, there was an auto agreement where same numbers had to be produced in Canada as were bought in Canada? I haven't heard as much about brain drain in recent years. For a while there, Ontario Medicare was a draw for US automakers? (Cheaper than it cost them in US.)

US and Cdn mayors of Great Lakes and St Lawrence R cities just released a statement re the tight entwinement of businesses and the importance of NAFTA. I know an Ontario boatbuilder who opened a second shop on NY side of the St Lawrence so he could accept US business otherwise denied to him by the Jones Act. US side of his business may now be subject to tariffs on Cdn aluminum? (ETA: Think about it: he expanded (a few miles!) to US because of protectionist Jones Act. He's already facing exchange-rate challenges. If US part of business becomes uncompetitive due to NAFTA and steel & aluminum tariffs, I doubt he'll return at this stage in his life.)

Remember the Chinese scandal of melamine in baby formula? A company is opening shop in Ontario to get (hormone-free?) cow and goat milk to meet demand for purity in China. American dairy farmers were livid to be cut out, though Chinese could have set up shop in US if price was their main concern? Worry in Ontario that this investment may not happen now, though not sure I understand why Chinese would now pull out.

Unless Cdns are very strategic, I don't think any boycott would have much effect given the relative populations--though a shame that any American (or Cdn) bystanders should suffer as a result of trade war/dust-up. I'd wouldn't mind seeing a boycott on Trump & crony goods and services. Not just in Canada, there was already less demand for the Trump brand? I suspect the Republicans are getting an earful behind closed doors, which may bring you-know-who to his senses--or finally get the votes to impeach?

The Nafta contributed to the loss of a lot of jobs in the North and the rust belt--New York, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Michigan were badly hurt. They were also states that were stronger trade union states and that absolutely undermined unions and their ability to negotiate contracts---with the domino effect of driving wage levels down and disappearing benefits across the board throughout our society from north to south east to west and that's a good part of why wealth disparity these days is what it is. I have the idea that the Canadian govt. did a lot more to ameliorate the more negative effects of the deal to their population than our politicians did here. Canada also has a health care system that is worthy of being called a health care system. One that isn't trying to screw everyone over at every single level from every direction.

The last time I was in Canada (which has been a while).....just watching TV--you'd see commercials about products and a big deal was made about products made in Canada. It's a good selling point. To me there's nothing wrong with promoting products like that and I wish we'd do more of that here but then again a lot of what is actually made here either isn't for common/domestic use or is made to be exported.

US businesses and voters will likely turn this around, but Canada could be forced into recession before then? For internal reasons Canada bought co. taking oil west (e.g., Asian markets), but increasingly thought to be good to diversify markets, e.g., TPP, Europe.

See map highlighting how much each province (13-50%) and U.S. state (1-14%) depends on trade across the 49th parallel--a function of relative population and location? OTOH, second map shows that 35 U.S. states have Canada as their largest export market.

Canadians Who Want To Play Hardball With Trump Should Look At This Map
We might be bringing a knife to a gunfight.
Daniel Tencer | June 16, 2018

...National Bank Financial Markets geopolitical analyst Angelo Katsoras...says there's something that could hurt Canada more than Trump's trade tariffs, and that's the uncertainty that seemingly endless NAFTA negotiations are creating. Companies don't want to invest into uncertain climates...

https://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2018/06/15/canada-us-trade-dependency_a_23460112/

Just the Fear of a Trade War Is Straining the Global Economy
Peter S. Goodman, Ian Austen and Elisabeth Malkin | June 16, 2018

...As the conflict broadens, shipments are slowing at ports and airfreight terminals around the world. Prices for crucial raw materials are rising. At factories from Germany to Mexico, orders are being cut and investments delayed. American farmers are losing sales as trading partners hit back with duties of their own.

...Before most trade measures fully take effect, businesses are already grappling with the consequences — threats to their supplies, uncertainty over the terms of trade and gnawing fear about what comes next.

...After two years of expansion, airfreight traffic was flat over the first three months of the year, according to the International Air Transport Association. Dips have been especially pronounced in Europe and Asia.

Container ships, the workhorses of global commerce, have seen no growth in freight since last fall in seasonally adjusted terms, according to a key index.

A gauge of world trade tracked by Oxford Economics, a research firm in London, recently registered its weakest showing since early 2017.

“Let us not understate the macroeconomic impact,” the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, warned this past week about trade conflicts. “It would be serious, not only if the United States took action, but especially if other countries were to retaliate, notably those who would be most affected, such as Canada, Europe and Germany.”

Threats to trade are emerging just as the global economy contends with other substantial challenges...decision to reinstate sanctions on Iran has lifted oil prices...

The United States last year imported more than $600 billion in goods and services from Canada and Mexico, the two other nations in the North American Free Trade Agreement — a deal Mr. Trump has threatened to blow up. Americans bought more than $500 billion in wares from China, and another $450 billion from the European Union. Collectively, that amounts to nearly two-thirds of all American imports.

“If you seriously disrupt any of these three, you’re going to feel the effects,” said Adam Slater, lead economist at Oxford Economics. “If you disrupt all three at once, you’re going to feel it quite severely.”

...For buyers of steel and aluminum inside the United States, the tariffs have increased prices, discouraging investment.

...Far beyond the realm of metal, the impact of trade skirmishes are rippling out, hitting small businesses and consumers.

...the peso has plunged in value, raising the cost of everyday goods from the United States...

Global commodities markets are wrestling with the impacts of trade conflict, especially as China seeks alternatives to American suppliers...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/16/business/tariffs-trade-war.html

BLS-Labor StatisticsVerified account @BLS_gov
Consumer Price Index up 2.8 percent over the year ending May 2018 http://go.usa.gov/xQt5t (June 15, 2018) #BLSdata

David Frum‏ @davidfrum 17 Jun 2018: That's before the tariffs bite.

Dom Acconcia‏ @DomAcconcia (self-described former banker) 17 June 2018:We're getting higher interest rates because of incipient inflation. This is going to worsen an already cyclical trend. And we all know what happens when interest rate hikes bite. Especially this late in the expansion part of the cycle. Recession.

Escalating U.S.-China trade spat comes at a bad time for global growth, economist says
June 15, 2018

Tensions could dampen growth and sentiment globally: Oxford Economics

The resilience of China’s economy in early 2018 has been an important buffer for global growth in the face of mounting headwinds, noted Louis Kujis, head of Asia economics for Oxford Economics.

...China’s economy was set to slow without the trade dispute and policy makers were already less likely to respond with the type of stimulus they have implemented in the past to the benefit of the domestic and global economy. The rising trade tensions only amplify the prospects of a slowdown, albeit at the margins.

“While the economic impact of the U.S. tariffs and ensuing retaliation by China will be modest, it does matter,” Kujis wrote. Assuming broadly one-for-one retaliation, Oxford Economics’s economic model suggests the trade actions will shave 0.1 to 0.2 percentage point off growth in 2018 and 2019 for both countries, he said, noting that the impact has already been incorporated into the firm’s forecasts.

Such numbers “still matter, and the increased uncertainty and risks will weigh on business confidence and investment, especially cross-border investment,” he said. “Thus, there will be an impact on growth, in China, the US and elsewhere, at a sensitive time for the global economy.”...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/escalating-us-china-trade-spat-comes-at-a-bad-...

If, God forbid, trade war drags into 2019, Cdn snowbirds, should they stay home, COULD ding economies of states such as FL and AZ.
Likewise European and Chinese prospective tourists if they refrain like visitors from Muslim and Spanish countries?

Sure hope US business interests convince Mango Mussolini to call off this ill-advised trade war...

Cdn sister-in-law posted this on FB:

Canadians boycott US products, cancel vacations to America
Mark Moore | June 14, 2018
https://nypost.com/2018/06/14/canadians-boycott-us-products-cancel-vacations-to-...
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Visit Orlando: Record 68 million people visited last year
Sandra Pedicini | may 11, 2018

...Some experts predict an overall drop in foreign tourists as a result of the Trump administration's actions, such as the president’s executive order temporarily banning travel from several predominantly Muslim countries, which has been blocked by a U.S. district judge and is being appealed. Trump also had made a campaign promise to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to keep “bad hombres” from entering the country.

Visit Orlando has been increasing its domestic advertising, in part, to combat a potential drop in foreign travel here.

Because of the “increasingly loud narrative regarding international travel, it is critical we have strong competitive marketing … working for our destination,” Visit Orlando chairman Donald Engfer told an audience of hundreds Thursday.

Aguel told the Orlando Sentinel that “Brazil remains soft” so far this year. Traffic has been “flat from Canada, about the same from the UK … Back in ’16, we started seeing some growth in Mexico … We enjoyed that in ’16. Frankly we’re not going to enjoy that in ’17. That has gone the other way, regrettably.”...

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/business/tourism/os-visit-orlando-tourist-numbers...

The Single Biggest Reason Trade War Fears Could Finally Topple the Stock Market
Brian Sozzi | Jun 18, 2018

The market enters the week with worries about a global trade war running rampant.
Goldman Sachs' lifting of its recession probability won't do much to ease investor concerns.

Investors are getting their wake-up call.

Don't search too far for a reason the stock market will kick off the week under considerable pressure. The reality is this: Investors for months have ignored trade war fears because they were just that -- fears that weren't materializing in corporate earnings. In fact, first-quarter earnings saw the strongest growth rates in eons. So there was no reason for investors to price trade war fears into their thinking on corporate profits.

Now that dynamic has to change with the U.S. and China trading blows that are likely to raise costs -- and hurt profit margins -- for many very large companies and their supply chains. Trade war fears are now trade war truths. Buckle up, it's going to be a long week...

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/single-biggest-reason-stock-market-co...
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Following the money... :-(

Stocks Dive Globally as U.S.-China Trade War Intensifies
Martin Baccardax | Jun 18, 2018

The escalating U.S.-China trade war has clipped risk sentiment around the world, sending emerging market stocks into a tailspin and lifting the dollar to a six-month high against a basket of its global peers.

...U.S. stocks...are set to open on the back foot Monday, according to early indications from U.S. futures prices...

...the globe's most-powerful tech firms look to be strengthening ties, with Google closing a $550 million investment with China-based internet giant JD.com (JD) that will both allow parent Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) to deepen its reach inside the world's second-largest economy and help JD expand into Southeast Asia and Europe by promoting more of its products on Google's shopping platform.

...European stocks opened weaker, with oil and gas stocks leading to the downside, although the declines were offset by a sliding euro, which continues to lose ground against the U.S. dollar...

The Stoxx Europe 600 index was marked 0.95% lower by mid-day in Frankfurt with benchmarks in Germany and France falling around 1.15% and 1.21% respectively...

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/global-stocks-retreat-as-u-s-china-trade-war-i...

Beyond damage to business and workers and stock market...

Trump’s tariffs aren’t the biggest trade problem. Will China step up to protect the WTO?
Karen J. Alter | June 18, 2018

...The World Trade Organization is withering into irrelevance, its rules largely unchanged since the 1994 reform round. Countries instead negotiate Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs) or bilateral/multilateral agreements that undermine the WTO’s most-favored-nation benefits — and make it less costly to exit the WTO. The United States continues to block new appointments to the WTO’s Appellate Body, which could threaten the WTO’s capacity to resolve trade disputes.

Given how much China has benefited from the WTO, and the support Chinese leaders have long professed for the multilateral trade system, would China step in to save the WTO?

...I asked international legal and trade scholars about three possible scenarios for China and the WTO. Here’s what I found:

Scenario 1 — Not yet ready to lead

Scenario 2 — Starting to lead, perhaps sooner than China wanted

Scenario 3 — Pursuing alternatives to the WTO

1) Promoting regional trade

2) Building global partnerships

3) Free trade zones (FTZs)

The Belt and Road Initiative (under 2) has emerged as President Xi Jinping’s signature project...

There is some sense, however, that WTO membership is valuable to China’s reputation.

But even in the context of a multilateral institution that has served China’s economic interests, I found little to suggest China will step up to protect the WTO — or replace the U.S. as a leader of the multilateral order.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/06/18/trumps-tariffs-are...
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See also excerpt of speech by Cdn Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland at
Pro and Con : Guide to Surviving an Authoritarian Regime (America's E European Friends)
(Post #4 at https://www.librarything.com/topic/277529)

Lies, China And Putin: Solving The Mystery Of Wilbur Ross' Missing Fortune
Dan Alexander | Jun 18, 2018

...unlike his boss, (80YO Wilbur) Ross promised to divest from almost all his holdings upon entering government, drawing bipartisan praise en route to an easy confirmation. “You have really made a very personal sacrifice,” said Senator Richard Blumenthal, Democrat of Connecticut. “Your service has resulted in your divesting yourself of literally hundreds of millions of dollars.” In November 2017, Ross confirmed in writing to the federal Office of Government Ethics that he had divested everything he promised.

But that was not true. After weeks of investigation, Forbes found:... (Chinese government, Putin cronies, Cypriot bank, autos, family trust)

...conflicts of interest appears to be entirely legal—a reflection of ethics laws woefully unprepared for governing tycoons like Donald Trump and Wilbur Ross.
Ross appears to have broken one law, however: submitting a sworn statement to federal officials in November saying he divested of everything he had promised he would...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/danalexander/2018/06/18/lies-china-and-putin-solvin...

Today Trump's complaining about those wiley Cdn shoppers buying shoes in US but scuffing them up so as to avoid paying duty--Cdn duty! And, um, US retailers in NY and MI love Cdn shoppers...

>86 margd: Oh I know, Marg. It's so insulting to we Canadians. Really? Does Trump think we scuff up our shoes so as to bring them across the border? Trump does not realize how many shoes are made in Italy, or Europe in general , especially quality shoes. I have not crossed the border into the USA for some 8 years or so, and I live about 40 minutes from the border. I hope as many Canadians as possible don't bother to visit the USA and make sure we buy Canadian or European or whatever it takes to kick Trump to the curb as best we can. I'll purchase Canadian products first, as far as produce goes and Mexico will be second on my list. No USA stuff for me. When you get a new administration, then I'll go back to my usual ways.

Trump is criticizing Canada's dairy industry. But a few facts: Canada imports 5x as much dairy products (by value) from the US as it exports to the US. The US limits dairy imports to 3% of domestic consumption, but 10% of Canadian dairy consumption comes from the US. Yes, Canada has high tariffs on imports-- above quota-- but SO DOES THE US. It's really a case of the pot calling the kettle black. But with a $600 million dollar surplus in the dairy trade, the US has nothing to complain about!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/commentisfree/2018/jun/09/milk-canada-us-trade...

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/2018/06/13/a-trumped-up-charge-against-c...

@JustinTrudeau The US Footwear Industry welcomes you and all Canadians to come buy shoes in America! As many as you want - and scuff them up if you want, we can sell you more! #freetrade

FDRA @FDRA
4:20 PM - Jun 19, 2018
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Footwear Industry Responds Strongly to Trump’s Allegations That Canadians ‘Smuggle’ Shoes From the US
Samantha McDonald | June 19, 2018

...(Matt) Priest (president & CEO, Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America)...shared his opposition to Trump’s recent decision to impose a 10 percent tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods, add(ing): “The president seems misinformed about footwear trade. Consumers buying shoes in America already pay a very high tariff, upwards of 37.5 percent and 67.5 percent. NAFTA is not treating footwear consumers in America unfairly; the American government itself has not lowered footwear duties in a meaningful way in over 80 years.”

In March, 17 organizations from the fashion and soft-goods industries penned a joint letter reiterating that the U.S. already imposes high border taxes on many consumer products.

“If the president is concerned about treating American footwear companies and consumers fairly, then he should have signed the Trans-Pacific Partnership to lower footwear costs in America,” Priest explained. “Canada signed the TPP and will eventually get duty-free shoes from Vietnam, a major sourcing hub, where American brands will ship directly into Canada duty-free. Canadians have no reason to ‘smuggle’ their shoes because their government is already helping lower their costs through proper trade deals.”...

https://footwearnews.com/2018/business/news/donald-trump-shoes-canadians-smuggle...

ETA________________________________________________

Group of Canadian and U.S. mayors speaks out against trade tariffs
The Canadian Press | June 14, 2018

AJAX, Ont. — A group of Canadian and U.S. mayors says the economies in the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River area are tightly integrated and the imposition of trade tariffs would impact both sides of the border.

The mayors attending the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative annual conference in Ajax, Ont., cautioned Thursday against isolationist trade policies.

...Niagara Falls, N.Y., Mayor Paul Dyster says the American mayors "stand shoulder to shoulder with our Canadian cousins in the face of escalating rhetoric that threatens to damage 200 years of peace and economic prosperity in the region."

...The mayors pointed out in a statement that if the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence region were a country — encompassing Quebec, Ontario and the eight Great Lake states — it would be the world's third-largest economy...

http://www.nsnews.com/group-of-canadian-and-u-s-mayors-speaks-out-against-trade-...

https://www.greatlakesnow.org/2018/06/canadian-and-u-s-mayors-express-alarm-over...

_________________________________________________

Some things are more expensive in Canada--I think because of (usually) lower currency value, higher wages, universal health care and other benefits like sick leave and maternity leave? My sense is there's less competition in Canada, e.g., when loonie was worth more than greenback, Cdns were STILL paying the larger price listed on the back of their books. (A govt seminar on the harmonized sales tax for micro-business I own in Ontario left me amazed--Canada relies on Value Added Tax (VAT) to even the playing field for domestic and imported goods and services.)

OTOH, I sometimes see items in Ontario grocery that are startlingly cheaper than they are in Michigan stores. Again OTOH, when we built a summer place in Ontario, we paid much less in Michigan than we aould have in Ontario for Canadian lumber, including the cost of shipping it back INTO Canada!. (Not a trivial difference either or we wouldn't have bothered.)

My sense is that Canadians do pay higher duty than Americans do when returning to home countries, but frequently crossing the US-Cdn border, I find there is much more flexibility than before. Sure, American border guards sometimes make me toss food I bring back to US in fall (pest concerns), and Canada occasionally charges me duty for an extra bottle of wine. (We are honest with them, preferring to pay duty occasionally than to get in either of their bad books.) ETA: Looks like recreational marijuana will be legal in Canada as of this fall (Oct 17?), so expecting to be greeted then by more sniffer dogs at US entry...Years ago, one tagged my rental vehicle, though human inspection confirmed it was "clean" of whatever the doggie sensed.

So, some reasons for what consumers pay are entirely separate from trade agreements. But where there are trade barriers on either side, they should be negotiated by people who understand the intricacies of both systems, not by tariffs and trade wars that threaten the economy that benefits us all, whether we realize it or not! The US shoe assn statement and my Cdn boatbuilder (US Jones Act from WW1 era) makes clear there is more protection than NAFTA addresses (often pre-NAFTA vestiges?), and not just on the Canadian side!

How China could hit the U.S. where it hurts
Forget tariffs. Beijing may use tactics like consumer boycotts to turn up the heat on U.S. companies.
ADAM BEHSUDI and DOUG PALMER | 06/20/2018

...U.S. companies are well aware that tariffs are only one way that China can retaliate, said Rufus Yerxa, a former U.S. trade official who now serves as president of the National Foreign Trade Council.

At a meeting Tuesday with NFTC’s board of directors — which includes companies like Walmart, Coca-Cola and Facebook — there was “significant concern” from a number of members that Beijing might lash out by “making life miserable for U.S. companies operating in China,” he said.

“What are the Chinese going to do when they retaliate? They’re going to say, we can easily take this U.S. company out here because we’ve got a Japanese company, or a Korean company, or a European company ready to come in and do the same kind of business here,” he said. “I think that’s a very credible scenario of how all of this plays out."

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/06/20/china-trade-tariff-trump-635413

The shoe statement by Trump was especially ridiculous because if a shoe is made in the USA , Canadian's don't pay duty or a tariff on a shoe , because of NAFTA. What we do pay is provincial and Federal taxes, which would come to !2%. Personally I don't mind it because that is how we fund our higher wages, universal health care , education etc. And yes, overall I think our prices are higher in Canada, but once again, not a problem for me. I'm not well off, just a very ordinary Canadian, but I'm happy with our education system, universal health care, Mat Leave, Employment Insurance ( EI ) etc. I've not crossed into the USA for some 8 years. Needing a passport , plus the huge lines at the border has discouraged me and my husband.

You are right about their being more flexibility at the border. I have not crossed the border myself, but I have a lot of family that likes to take a quick day trip down to the USA. It depends on the customers officer. Mainly though, my family uses a NEXUS pass for sake of speed, and they want to declare everything and pay the sales tax, in case the NEXUS pass was revoked.

I'm in the Vancouver area, and we are used to paying a lot for gasoline and carbon taxes etc etc and it just does not bother me. Better for the environment.


So, some reasons for what consumers pay are entirely separate from trade agreements

Exactly,@ margd .

Uh oh. Below is discussion on how Trump's trade war might conflict with independent US Fed's attempts to rein in inflation, and perhaps lead to Trump interference with Fed's independence. Inflation might undercut Trump's tariffs? Rush to US$ with fear of trade war could undercut Fed's attempts to raise rates/tame inflation? Countries such as Canada might have short term advantage as their currencies lose value relative to US$? (Loonie is dropping relative to US$.) Sounds like a toxic, unstable combination for global economy? Where are we headed--stock market crash, inflation? recession? Any confidence Trump knows what he's messing with?? Is there an adult in the room?? China holds a lot of US bonds...

Why Trump's threats could give Canada a trade advantage it never sought
Don Pittis | Jun 13, 2018

President's trade bravado puts Federal Reserve in awkward spot as U.S. dollar rises

... New figures out yesterday show the U.S. economy is on a tear, with inflation at a six-year high and unemployment at an 18-year low.

The economic stimulation caused by years of cheap money was expected to show a result eventually. But the added stimulus of Trump's tax cuts, paid for with international borrowing, was the icing on the cake.

It is (US Federal Reserve Jerome) Powell's job to figure out how to rein in all that stimulus.

The Fed is selling a trillion dollars in treasuries on international markets to pay for the deficit. It is gradually removing the $4.5 trillion it injected into the economy in the years following the 2008 meltdown. All while it raises interest rates.

According to central bank watcher Scott Aquanno from the University of Ontario Institute of Technology, all three of those moves draw U.S. dollars out of the global system, creating an increasing shortage of capital.

"All of this would not be important if the dollar wasn't the central currency of the global economy," Aquanno says.

But if the Fed continues on this path, he says, it will push the value of the dollar up in world markets, making U.S. exports more expensive, disrupting countries that have borrowed in U.S. dollars and creating a very long-term risk to the stability of the greenback.

These are some of the issues Powell will likely address later today.

So far, the overstimulated U.S. economy continues to do well and economic growth patches over a lot of ills.

But if the mayhem caused by Trump begins to damage the U.S. economy, the president could intervene again, writes University of Oregon Fed watcher Tim Duy, breaking the rule that U.S. central bankers can do whatever it takes to stabilize the U.S. currency.

"I very much doubt President Donald Trump would sit quietly and respect the Fed's independence if economic growth faltered."

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/fed-rates-houses-trade-1.4701260

Billions in US solar projects have been shelved after Trump panel tariff
Reuters | 7 June 2018

A tariff on imported solar panels has led U.S. companies to cancel or freeze investments of more than $2.5 billion in large installation projects, along with thousands of jobs.

That's more than double the about $1 billion in new spending plans announced by firms building or expanding U.S. solar panel factories to take advantage of the tax on imports.

Trump announced the tariff in January over protests from most of the solar industry that the move would chill one of America's fastest-growing sectors.

...The U.S. solar industry employs more than 250,000 people — about three times more than the coal industry — with about 40 percent of those people in installation and 20 percent in manufacturing, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/07/billions-in-us-solar-projects-have-been-shelved-...

"No industry throws more lobbying dollars around Washington (than drug companies)—more than the banking, defence, and automobile industries combined." Maybe start by expropriating insulin as sold by Eli Lilly in Indiana (VP Pence's state) and gift it to the world (again)--including American diabetics being gouged by Big Pharma? ;-)

Why pharmaceuticals could be the prescription for trade warfare that truly hurts America
Amir Attaran | Jun 12, 2018

Opinion: If Canada wants to decisively threaten maximum pain and stop the escalating trade war with the U.S., it should propose expropriating pharmaceutical patents

...Pharmaceutical patents are ultra-valuable assets. Whoever controls a drug’s patent has the exclusive right to make and export that drug. With typical drug prices growing an average of 12 per cent annually, and with certain specialty drugs priced over $500,000, controlling the right pharmaceutical patents is like having several gold mines.

But what makes pharmaceutical patents ripe for retaliation is the vulnerability of America’s pharmaceutical industry. Six of the world’s top ten pharmaceutical companies are American. No industry throws more lobbying dollars around Washington—more than the banking, defence, and automobile industries combined. Any trade retaliation aimed at pharmaceuticals certainly will be felt on Wall Street and heard in the White House.

Canada has already expropriated pharmaceutical patents in the past: The federal government did so hundreds of times in the 1970s and 1980s, but stopped because of the 1988 Canada-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, which later inspired NAFTA. Now that the White House wants to back out of our trading relations and NAFTA too, it is fair to revisit that decision.

Thanks to an obscure twist of world trade law, doing so is perfectly legal, too. In the years since NAFTA, developments in international law have made expropriation of pharmaceutical patents easier and less risky than ever. Between 1998 and 2005, at the height of the HIV/AIDS crisis, the World Trade Organization cobbled together special rules making it lawful to “compulsory license”—or, essentially, expropriate—pharmaceutical patents. The rules allow Canada’s government to authorize Canadian companies to copy patented drugs controlled by U.S. companies. There is no need for an AIDS-like health emergency, so long as certain manageable procedural steps are followed. Further, those procedural steps can be shortcut “to remedy a practice determined after … administrative process to be anti-competitive”—likely an easy determination for President Trump’s bogus claim that aluminum and steel tariffs are needed for national security.

...Macroeconomically, compulsory licensing would mean growth for the Canadian pharmaceutical industry, and decline for the U.S. pharmaceutical industry. Microeconomically, it would mean cheaper drugs for Canadian households, once the American companies’ patent monopoly is broken. From a domestic policy angle, it would mean billions of dollars of savings for Canada’s publicly-funded Medicare system.

...diplomatically, it would mean unleashing the most powerful industrial lobby in Washington to beat up the White House on our behalf...

...Canada has made this threat before—a 2001 ultimatum over anthrax drugs—but because the threat would never need to be enacted. Congress would intervene, thanks to the ferocious pharma lobby, and relations would return to normal....

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/why-pharmaceuticals-could-be-the-prescription-fo...

One of today's stories in Danish newspapers:

https://www.business.dk/oekonomi/vi-bliver-oldgamle-atp-tvinges-til-at-flytte-mi...

English ummary: One of the pension funds changed their prediction model by removing US and inserting Scotland and Luxembourg. This resulted in a 23.8 month increase in the modelled life expectancy for women and 44.6 month for men. Formerly US was about 40% of the data used.

Harley-Davidson Says It Will Move Some Production Out of the U.S. Due to Trump’s Trade War

Whether or not the move leads to any job cuts, “iconic American brand moves manufacturing overseas” is almost certainly not the sort of headline the Trump administration was hoping its aggressive trade tactics would generate. It was also foreseeable: Our trade partners have a long history of responding to American protectionism by targeting politically sensitive products with tariffs of their own. While Harleys may not be a huge U.S. export, they are important in Wisconsin, which Trump carried by a hair-thin margin in 2016. As the Guardian notes, China also seems to be strategically placing tariffs on politically important exports, such as soybeans, which are produced in Trump-voting states like Iowa.

Trump's Trade War Revives Fears China Will Devalue Yuan
Bradley Keoun | Updated Jun 27, 2018

President Donald Trump's promised tariffs against (China's) exporters have pushed (yuan devaluation) concerns back to the fore.

...A cheaper currency for China would help to offset the effect of any tariffs on its exports to the U.S. by helping to keep the end products affordable for consumers. A weaker yuan would also reduce dollar-based profits for U.S. manufacturers that ship goods to China -- even as they face potential new tariffs from customs officials there.

...The Federal Reserve's interest-rate increases in recent years have helped to make U.S. investments incrementally more attractive, pushing up the value of the dollar while weakening often-volatile emerging-market currencies.

...Over the past week, China cut reserve requirements for its banks, a way of putting extra money into the economy without cutting interest rates. But the move has had an effect similar to that of loosening monetary policy: a weaker currency.

The yuan has slipped about 3% just in the past month, as the dollar strengthened against most world currencies...

https://www.thestreet.com/markets/trump-trade-war-revives-fears-of-chinese-curre...

President Trump announces a major U.S. Steel expansion — that isn’t happening
Glenn Kessler | June 28, 2018

“The head of U.S. Steel called me the other day, and he said, ‘We’re opening up six major facilities and expanding facilities that have never been expanded.’ They haven’t been opened in many, many years.”
— President Trump, roundtable with American workers, Duluth, Minn., June 20, 2018

“U.S. Steel just announced they’re expanding or building six new facilities.”
— Trump, remarks at the White House, June 26

“I’ve been hearing that from steel companies, and in particular from U.S. Steel, where I was with the president, as I said. And he — they’re just talking about opening plants now, and so many things have changed.”
— Trump, roundtable on tax reform, Cleveland, May 5

...Meghan M. Cox, U.S. Steel’s spokeswoman, simply offered this response: “To answer your question, we post all of our major operational announcements to our website and report them on earnings calls. Our most recent one pertained to our Granite City ‘A’ blast furnace restart.”

Translation: The president is wrong. But apparently U.S. Steel is afraid to say that out loud.

Cox ignored our question about whether (Dave Burritt, chief executive of U.S. Steel) had had a phone conversation with Trump — and she ignored our follow-up query restating that question. So one can only assume the phone call did not happen.

...The Pinocchio Test

This should be easy to clear up: Either the president of U.S. Steel tipped market-moving information to the president of the United States, or he did not. Interestingly, the securities markets have not reacted at all to the president’s disclosure; U.S. Steel’s stock fell the day after Trump made his comments about six new facilities, and it has continued to decline.

Perhaps that means the stock market puts a low premium on the president’s statements. Here at The Fact Checker, we award Four Pinocchios.

Four Pinocchios (= "whopper")

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2018/06/28/president-trump-a...

In bid to stop Trump's inappropriate use of national security argument in imposing tariffs, Sen Flake blocks confirmation of appellate judges, but won't block Supreme Court nominee:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/in-flakes-war-on-trumps-tariffs-preside...

https://insidetrade.com/trade/flake-says-he-wont-block-supreme-court-nominee-ove...

>70 margd: David Frum: "Nixon had an accommodating Fed. Will Trump? If yes, more inflation. If no, probably early recession."

It’s been decades since the White House has warned the Fed the way Kudlow just did
Greg Robb | 29, 2018 2:08 p.m. ET

...In an interview with Fox Business Network, (Trump economic advisor Larry Kudlow) jawboned the Fed, saying: “My hope is that the Fed, under its new management, understands that more people working and faster economic growth do not cause inflation.”

“My hope is that they understand that and that they will move very slowly,” he added.

It was the senior advisers to President George Bush, particularly Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady, who pushed the Fed to cut rates at a faster pace in the run-up to the recession that lasted from July 1990 until March 1991.

In fact, Bush blamed former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan for his defeat to Bill Clinton in 1992.

Financial markets were roiled by Brady’s warnings, said Lewis Alexander, chief economist at Nomura.

“The sense that the Fed was being criticized by the administration undermined the market’s confidence in the Fed’s ability to anchor inflation expectations,” Alexander said. This was reflected in higher interest rates.

In light of this experience, Robert Rubin, Clinton’s Treasury secretary, instituted the practice that administration officials should not comment on Fed policy.

This gentlemen’s agreement lasted, on the whole, through the George W. Bush and Obama administrations.

To be fair, most of this period Fed interest-rate policy during this period was trying to support economic growth, not take away the punch bowl.

The Fed is now attempting to slow the economy down with steady rate hikes but has said it will move at a gradual pace.

Robert Brusca, chief economist at FAO Economics, said Kudlow has probably notices that Fed Chairman Jerome Powell “has moved a little bit more to the side of the hawks than Yellen.”...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/its-been-decades-since-the-white-house-has-war...

20 contd.

Scoop: Trump's private threat to upend global trade
Jonathan Swan | June 29, 2018

President Trump has repeatedly told top White House officials he wants to withdraw the United States from the World Trade Organization, a move that would throw global trade into wild disarray, people involved in the talks tell Axios.

What we're hearing: “He’s threatened to withdraw 100 times. It would totally screw us as a country,” said a source who’s discussed the subject with Trump. The source added that Trump has frequently told advisers, "We always get fucked by them the WTO. I don’t know why we’re in it. The WTO is designed by the rest of the world to screw the United States."...

https://www.axios.com/mnuchin-world-trade-organization-story-exaggeration-b5d5e8...

GM Can't Wait Around for Trump to Win a Trade War
Brooke Sutherland | June 29, 2018

Patience isn’t always a virtue when it comes to running a business.

...GM said tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts could lead it to employ fewer U.S. workers and have less of a presence in America.

...Companies seek to maximize their profits, and in doing so, please their investors. So when it comes to decisions about jobs, investors — rightly or wrongly — may ultimately have more sway than politicians, barring a radical reversal of capitalism in America. And the uncertainty created by an escalating trade spat, not to mention the actual margin hit from retaliatory tariffs for some multi-national companies, is bad for profits and stocks. GM's supply chain isn't built for Canada and the European Union to be treated like enemies.

It’s unlikely that GM will be the last company to speak out against Trump's trade war. Canada is expected to impose tariffs on goods ranging from washing machines to maple syrup on Sunday in response to the U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs. China is expected to respond with retaliatory levies if the U.S. sticks with its plan to impose tariffs on $34 billion of Chinese imports next Friday, July 6. Both occasions give companies another opportunity to speak out with the kind of press releases Trump won't want to celebrate on Twitter.

https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-06-29/gm-can-t-wait-around-for-trum...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/indian-motorcycle-polaris-tariff-1.4729308

Indian Motorcycles is planning to move to the EU from the USA due the US tariffs.

Countermeasures in Response to Unjustified Tariffs on Canadian Steel and Aluminum Products

Takes effect July 1st 2018

https://www.fin.gc.ca/access/tt-it/cacsap-cmpcaa-1-eng.asp

Ah, but trade wars are good. America will become self-sufficient... like Cuba. Oh, wait, no. Cuba has health-care for all.

And so we begin. Trump imposes tariffs. Canada retaliates. Trump postpones NAFTA negotiations until after midterm elections. Ramps up rhetoric against Europe. Europe promises ccounter-actions: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/eu-threatens-300-billion-tariffs-against-us-af....

How China trade war could transpire...

Economists Meredith Crowley and Dan Ciuriak (June 19 paper): Trump is “weaponizing uncertainty”.

Nathan Sheets, chief economist for PGIM Fixed Income and a former U.S. Treasury undersecretary for international affairs: “This really is a standoff where both sides think they have the upper hand. That’s one of the things that scares me about it.”

Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers: “I’ve got a fairly high anxiety at this point about how this is all going to play out.”

_______________________________________________

Trade War Winner Is Who Loses Least as U.S. Duties Loom
Rich Miller and Enda Curran | July 1, 2018

...Bloomberg Economics reckons the looming U.S. tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese imports and a like-for-like retaliation from Beijing could cost China about 0.2 percentage point of gross domestic product and the U.S. a little less, a manageable amount in both instances.

It’s where the dispute goes next that poses a bigger threat. The direct cost to the world’s two biggest economies is probably the most straightforward forecast. From a breakdown in the global supply chain to a ratcheting up of military tension over the South China Sea, the collateral damage represents an incalculable unknown.

If the U.S. expands its crackdown to $250 billion of China’s exports than the growth on that economy could be up to 0.5 percentage point, the Bloomberg economists estimate.

In a full-blown global trade war, they reckon a 10 percent increase in U.S. tariffs and a similar response from the rest of the world would mean by 2020 that the U.S. could lose 0.4 point and China 0.2 point. The U.S. loses more because it would face the wrath of all its trading partners and if financial markets crumble then the cost to it could double.

Judging by the financial markets, investors seem to think the U.S. has the upper hand...

One thing in the U.S.’s favor is that its economy relies more on demand from home than abroad...

America also has more to shoot at (imports more than it exports to China)...

The president is also hoping costlier imports will drive companies to increasingly base their operations in the U.S...

...(US subsidiaries based in China) are vulnerable to government-inspired buyer boycotts, customs delays and other restrictions on their business -- the same sort of tactics China employed in past disputes with South Korea and Japan.

...The Asian country also has room on the fiscal and monetary policy fronts to support domestic demand and offset damage to the economy from U.S. tariffs. Its central bank said last week it’ll use comprehensive policy tools to steady its economy and stabilize market expectations.

As a last resort, it could even pare its holdings of U.S. Treasuries or allow the yuan to decline further, pushing up U.S. interest rates and making American exports to China costlier.

Perhaps Beijing’s biggest advantage is political....(Trump) has already gotten grief from farm state lawmakers and others who’ll be hurt by Chinese retaliation; ...in March (China) repealed (Xi's) term limits.

...since China often acts an assembly point for parts from the rest of the region before products are shipped to America...Taiwan, Malaysia and South Korea would be particularly hurt, though companies as far afield as Chile, South Africa and Germany also might feel the fallout...

...The ripples from the trade battle are certain to spread further, with greater casualties, the longer the skirmish between the world’s two biggest economies lasts and the more it intensifies...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-01/trade-war-winner-is-who-loses...

102 contd.

Leaked draft bill indicates Trump’s intention to dump WTO: report
July 2, 2018 7:51 a.m. ET

Proposed bill’s ‘FART’ nickname takes off on Twitter, adds to debate around its merit

The Trump administration has crafted a draft bill — ordered by the president — that would declare America’s abandonment of World Trade Organization rules

...essentially provides President Donald Trump — who has argued for a better position for the U.S. in big trade pacts — a license to raise U.S. tariffs at will, without congressional consent and largely outside of the international rules governed by the WTO.

The bill, titled the “United States Fair and Reciprocal Tariff Act,” would give Trump unilateral power to ignore the two most basic principles of the WTO and negotiate one-on-one with any country. The first is the “most favored nation” (MFN) principle that stipulates countries can’t set different tariff rates for different countries outside of free trade agreements. The second pertains to “bound tariff rates,” which are the tariff ceilings that each WTO country has already agreed to in previous negotiations...

...The good news is Congress would never give this authority to the president” (source) describing the bill as “insane.”

Most officials involved in the bill’s drafting — with the notable exception of trade adviser Peter Navarro — think the bill is unrealistic or unworkable...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/leaked-draft-bill-indicates-trumps-intention-t...

Damn the torpedos, full speed ahead...

Stock market level won’t change Trump trade policy, Commerce chief Ross says
Robert Schroeder | July 2, 2018

Tensions between the U.S. and its major trading partners were weighing on stocks Monday, but don’t look to President Donald Trump to change his tune on trade, his commerce secretary says.

Appearing on CNBC on Monday, Wilbur Ross said Trump is attempting to fix “long-term problems that should have been fixed a long time ago,” and had this to say about stocks and Trump’s trade approach:

‘There’s no bright line level of the stock market that’s going to change policy.’
Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross

...

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-level-wont-change-trump-trade-pol...

Hope my washing machine hangs in until this blows over... son's 2009 auto, also...
Unbelievable that Trump is doing this to the US's most faithful ally and largest customer. Things may never be the same. Happy, happy Putin.

These are the places most vulnerable to U.S. tariffs
Roberto Rocha · CBC News · Posted: Jul 02, 2018

While tariffs on steel, aluminum should have only a modest effect, economists say auto threat could be severe

...metal ore mining jobs have the smallest risk of being affected by the tariffs, since mining doesn't rely heavily on U.S. buyers.

...The biggest risk is for manufacturers who make steel and steel-based materials, since it's a far more competitive industry and steel and metal components can cross the border several times before being made into final product.

...The largest concentration of manufacturing jobs that use steel are in the southern tip of Ontario, in a corridor stretching from Windsor to Guelph. (In one section) 23.5 per cent of jobs are in metal manufacturing.

The manufacturing belt in Eastern Quebec, especially the Beauce region, is also highly exposed.

But...effect of tariffs will be felt all over.

...companies in Atlantic Canada that make tires and they source steel wires. In the West and the Prairies, there are bus and ambulance makers that use steel...

non-residential construction is also at risk, since it's a big user of steel. The CBC reached out to the Canadian Construction Association for comment, but they said they are still discussing a response. ...

In all, 3.2 per cent of jobs in Canada are exposed to these tariffs.

...Of greater concern are Trump's threats to slap a 25 per cent tariff on cars and auto parts, although no moves have yet been made to enact them.

A car part can cross the border several times during its production cycle before it's assembled into a vehicle. Ciuriak said that even a six per cent tariff would be enough to make a car maker move closer to the supplier, much less 25 per cent.

"That would destroy North American integration on autos. We would produce to the Canadian market a smaller range of brands and the U.S. would replace Canadian imports," (economist Dan) Ciuriak said.

But the shockwaves would reach far beyond the auto sector. Other manufacturers supply auto companies, anything from packaging material to glassmakers to die casting. The entire manufacturing sector of Canada, which employs 1.8 million people, could be affected...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/tariff-impact-canadian-cities-1.4728226

U.S. Chamber of Commerce launching campaign opposing Trump’s tariffs
REBECCA MORIN | 07/02/2018

The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, usually a staunch ally with Republicans, on Monday will launch a campaign against the president’s recent tariff policy.

“The administration is threatening to undermine the economic progress it worked so hard to achieve,” Chamber President Tom Donohue said. “We should seek free and fair trade, but this is just not the way to do it.”

The chamber is using state-by-state analysis to argue that Trump is risking a global trade war...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/02/us-chamber-of-commerce-trump-689658

White House senior adviser and Trump’s daughter Ivanka Trump has not manufactured a single product for her business operations in the U.S. She relies exclusively on low-wage workers in foreign factories in countries including Bangladesh, Indonesia and China, according to another investigation by The Washington Post.

https://www.aol.com/article/news/2018/07/02/trump-attacks-harley-davidson-for-ov...

>112 margd: well that one got pulled pretty fast - nothing to see here

>113 alco261: They are still moving to the EU or elsewhere - Harley Davidson https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/harley-davidson-tariff-1.4720531

>114 vancouverdeb: I realize that. My comment was directed at the http margd had in her post #112. When I clicked on it the article was gone.

>113 alco261: Interesting. I googled the quote re Ivanka's offshore sourcing and found similar at PBS and Chicago Tribune!

______________________________________________

‘I’d like to kill ’em’: GOP takes on Trump tariffs
BURGESS EVERETT | 07/03/2018

Republican lawmakers are losing their patience with the president’s trade war, saying it’s hurting their states and the party’s chances in the midterms.

...Republican senators say they can’t get the president to comprehend that his tariffs offensive could upend all of that progress in short order. Commodity prices in the heartland are sagging, U.S. allies are retaliating with tariffs of their own — and GOP leaders are fretting that the booming economy is about to go into a pre-midterms nosedive.

“Individual senators have met with the president, including me. The Ag committee met with him, the Finance Committee met with him. And there’s nobody for this,” said Sen. Pat Roberts (R-Kan.), the Agriculture Committee chairman. Trump is “a protectionist who has his policy wrapped around the rear axle of a pickup. And it’s hard to get out.”

Trump has heard them out at White House meetings and in phone calls. But he has plowed ahead, anyway: First Trump imposed tariffs on washing machines and solar panels, then slapped tariffs on steel and aluminum imports for Mexico, Europe and Canada, and now is moving toward new levies on foreign cars. The tit-for-tat is accelerating: Tariffs against China take effect this week, and Canada announced retaliatory tariffs on Friday...

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/07/03/trump-tariffs-republicans-congress-hat...

Trump Distorts Facts on Agricultural Trade
Eugene Kiely | July 3, 2018

In a Fox Business interview, President Donald Trump singled out trade barriers as a reason for five “very bad years” for U.S. farmers. But agricultural economists blame low farm commodity prices — not trade barriers.

In fact, U.S. agricultural exports totaled $140.5 billion in fiscal year 2017 — the third-highest amount on record. And, as it has done for decades, the U.S. agricultural sector posted an annual trade surplus of $21.3 billion in 2017, up almost 30 percent from fiscal 2016.

...Contrary to Trump’s claim, (Wallace E. Tyner, who teaches agricultural economics at Purdue University) said that trade has not been a problem for the U.S. agriculture sector — until now.

“For the president or anyone else to say trade is a problem – it is now, but wasn’t a month ago,” he said, referring to the retaliatory tariffs.

https://www.factcheck.org/2018/07/trump-distorts-facts-on-agricultural-trade/

John G. Murphy (Senior Vice President for International Policy at @USChamber) @JGodiasMurphy
‏10 Jul 2018

DAIRY DISASTER: US trade policy is inflicting substantial harm on US dairy producers. It’s a perfect storm spawned in large part by tariffs unleashed in Washington. THREAD /1

Mexico is the top export market for US dairy products: Mexicans bought nearly $400 million of US dairy products last year. The US is the largest dairy supplier to Mexico, and Mexico accounts for about one-quarter of US dairy exports (see letter signed by 60+ dairy groups). /2

The US Dairy Export Council has these amazing stats on just how important the Mexican market is to US dairy farmers. /3

But Mexico last week placed tariffs as high as 25% on US dairy products in retaliation for US steel and aluminum tariffs. /4

This comes at a bad moment for US dairy farmers. Per @WSJ: “Milk prices crashed to less than $14 a hundredweight, or 100 pounds, earlier this year from a peak of more than $24 a hundredweight in 2014.” Other dairy prices are down too. /5

The hits keep coming: “René Fonseca, general director of Mexico’s National Milk Industries’ Chamber, said Mexican processors are pushing U.S. producers to lower their prices to make up for the tariff.” /6

Further, Mexico and the EU in April reached a deal to substantially update and expand their 2000 trade agreement, which will provide duty-free access to the Mexican market for a host of European dairy products. /7

In the deal, Mexico also agreed to geographical indications for 340 European food and drink products, including many cheeses. This means US-produced cheeses will no longer be permitted to be sold under those names once the agreement is implemented. /8

Fonseca says Mexicans “are looking for alternative suppliers for cheeses such as Gouda in the European Union…. Mexican companies that find a new supplier likely won’t revert to their old US trade partner if tariffs are removed.” /9

To recap: US dairy products now face stiff tariffs in their largest export market; Mexico is simultaneously opening its market to EU dairy producers; meanwhile, domestic prices are way down.

It’s a perfect storm spawned in large part by tariffs unleashed in Washington. /END

Equal to China's exports to the US!!!
Maybe when Ivanka's business implodes, Trump will finally understand how badly this will hurt US (and global) economies?

White House announces additional $200B in tariffs targeting China
John Bowden - 07/10/18

The Trump administration on Tuesday announced a package of tariffs targeting Chinese exports valued roughly at $200 billion.

A senior administration official called the package about equal to China's total exports the United States...

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/396394-white-house-announces-additional-200-bi...

New Challenge to Trump’s National Security Tariffs and Executive Power
Todd N. Tucker | July 5, 2018

A group of steel importers filed the latest challenge to the Trump administration's steel tariffs on June 27 under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962. The suit, filed by the American Institute for International Steel (AIIS) and two member companies at the U.S. Court of International Trade, seeks a declaratory judgment from a special three-member panel.

...AIIS is tackling Section 232 head-on; rather than challenging the president’s action pursuant to the statute, AIIS challenges the constitutionality of Congress’s delegation.

...The plaintiffs seek a declaratory judgment that Section 232’s unlimited discretion "is unconstitutional as an improper delegation of legislative power to the President, in violation of Article I, section 1 of the Constitution and the doctrine of separation of powers and the system of checks and balances that the Constitution protects."

...the chances of an AIIS victory are slim as it would upend decades of precedent.

...It is a sign of how desperate times have gotten—and perhaps no small amount of resignation regarding the anti-New Deal bonafides of newer members of the high court such as Neil Gorsuch—that measures like AIIS’s long shot are even being considered. But with Congress yet unable to come up with veto-proof majorities to roll back Trump's steel tariffs, the courts (or impeachment) may be the only game in town...

https://www.lawfareblog.com/new-challenge-trumps-national-security-tariffs-and-e...

Here’s when Americans will start feeling the pain from escalating Trump-imposed tariffs
Jeffry Bartash |July 11, 2018 2:16 p.m. ET

...China exported...a vast range of goods such as fabrics, clothing, vacuum cleaners, refrigerators, computers, lighting and so forth — the kind of goods that are no longer made in America or are only made in small quantities.

...tit-for-tat tariffs on steel and autos could substantially raise the price for new cars and trucks.

...The tariffs could also hurt consumers more generally by raising inflation...

...Higher inflation would eat away at what workers earn, offsetting the benefits of annual pay increases. And rising prices would put pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more aggressively, potentially narrowing the arteries of the U.S. economy.

Virtually anyone not inside the White House never thought Trump would go so far. The prevailing view on Wall Street and elsewhere was that he would win some concessions, declare victory and back off. Instead he keeps ratcheting up the rhetoric — and tariffs.

...Most experts agree the U.S. is more open to free trade than other major nations, but they worry the president’s presumed cure will do far more harm than good. And now they fear there’s no turning back.

“Even though the tariffs actually imposed up to now are relatively small in comparison to overall trade flows and gross domestic product, it is hard to see how a full-blown trade war can be avoided at this stage,” said chief U.S. economist Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. “There is no one left in the administration or in Congress to rein in President Donald Trump’s long-held protectionist beliefs and other countries are not shying away from the fight.”

If a full-blown trade war erupts, consumers won’t long escape the fallout. They’ll be paying higher prices well before the Christmas holiday season.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-when-americans-will-start-feeling-the-pa...

Farmers say China has already started to cancel orders due to Trump tariffs

As trade tensions between the United States and China continue to escalate, farmers in Iowa are starting to feel the pain.
According to Iowa Agriculture Secretary Michael Naig, China has already canceled orders on products it typically imports from the state.
"We can’t continue to bear the brunt of the retaliation," he said.

Michelle Fox | 13 July 2018 CNBC.com

Naig said that Iowa predominantly produces corn and soybean, so farmers can’t try to come up with a “plan B” by shifting production.

“They’ve spent a lot of time and energy to build this market, particularly China and soybean, and we’d like to see that effort pay dividends, not be wasted,” he said.

China buys about half of the U.S. soybean exports, and roughly one in three rows of soybeans grown on the nation's farms goes to the world's second-largest economy, according to the American Soybean Association. Nearly $20 billion in U.S. agricultural exports went to China last year, with more than half of that amount coming from soybeans.

While producers are concerned about the “near-term turbulence” in the marketplace right now, Naig said there is also fear about destroying demand for their products around the world on a more permanent basis.

“Our message to the president is we can’t continue to bear the brunt of the retaliation and that our farmers really can’t afford to wait,” he said. “They are planning for a 2019 growing season and for making economic decisions that will impact them for years to come.”...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/13/farmers-say-china-has-started-to-cancel-orders-d...

The Real Winners and Losers of Trump’s Trade War Speak Up
July 17, 2018

Now it’s getting real...We’ll continue to update and revise this list...

U.S. | Consumer products
Procter & Gamble: Cites ‘meaningful’ impact of tariffs on a handful of products in Canada, which accounts for 3% of global sales
Based on a 10% Canada tariff on paper towels, air freshener

Germany | Materials
Kloeckner: Steel trader raises earnings forecast on higher U.S. prices
Based on a 25% U.S. tariff on steel

U.S. | Automotive
General Motors: Could be forced to cut U.S. jobs if tariffs are applied to imported vehicles and auto parts.
Based on a proposed 25% U.S. tariff on auto parts

Sweden | Automotive
Volvo Cars: Owner Li Shufu says cars will cost more as trade wars escalate
Based on a 25% China tariff on automobiles

Germany | Automotive
Osram: Trade tensions will weaken sales of automotive lighting parts
Based on a proposed 25% U.S. tariff on auto parts

U.S. | Materials
Ryerson: Metal processor’s sales guidance exceeds estimates in part because of higher anticipated demand from inventory dislocations tied to tariffs
Based on a 25% U.S. tariff on steel and aluminum

U.S. | Consumer products
Brown-Forman: Raised Jack Daniel’s prices in light of EU tariffs
Based on a 25% EU tariff on bourbon

U.S. | Automotive
Harley-Davidson: Plans to move production overseas, sees EU tariff costs of $100 million annually
Based on a 25% EU tariff on motorcycles

Germany | Automotive
Daimler: Cut profit forecast on U.S.-China trade fight
Based on a 25% China tariff on automobiles

U.S. | Agricultural products
Tyson Foods: ‘Day-to-day uncertainty’ in delivering products and services
Based on a 25% China tariff on meat and poultry

U.S. | Consumer products
MillerCoors: Brewer says profit could fall by $40 million depending on how much aluminum prices rise
Based on a 10% U.S. tariff on aluminum

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/tariff-tracker/

_____________________________________________________________

Trump’s tariffs on Mexico are causing layoffs in the United States
by Erica Werner and Kevin Sieff | July 18, 2018

...a Mexican company bought Mid Continent Nail Corp. in 2012

...Mid Continent’s factory has doubled in size since Deacero’s purchase. The company, facing fewer restrictions on steel exports after the North American Free Trade Agreement, shipped steel into Missouri, willing to pay skilled workers more to take advantage of cheaper energy costs in the United States and a location that allowed swift delivery to U.S. customers.

But President Trump has put 25 percent tariffs on steel imports, bumping production costs and prompting Deacero to reconsider this arrangement. With Mid Continent charging more for nails, orders are down 70 percent from this time a year ago despite a booming construction industry. Company officials say that without relief, the Missouri plant could be out of business by Labor Day — or that remaining production could move to Mexico or another country...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/trumps-tariffs-on-mexico-are-cau...

Now, currency wars...

ETA_______________________________________________________________________

China, the European Union and others have been manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower, while the U.S. is raising rates while the dollars gets stronger and stronger with each passing day - taking away our big competitive edge. As usual, not a level playing field...
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump 5:43 AM - 20 Jul 2018

President Trump discovers a paradox of protectionism: his tariffs have driven down the exchange rates of the countries he has targeted. Exactly as economists predicted back in spring 2017 https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6359-the-impact-of-protectionism-on-... *
David Frum @davidfrum 5:48 AM - 20 Jul 2018

*The Impact of Protectionism on Global Foreign Exchange Markets
Joaquin Monfort |10 March 2017 16:21
https://www.poundsterlinglive.com/economics/6359-the-impact-of-protectionism-on-...

___________________________________________________________________________

Trump lays into the Federal Reserve, says he's 'not thrilled' about interest rate hikes

President Donald Trump, in a rare statement for Oval Office holders, criticized the Federal Reserve for raising interest rates.
He said he's "not thrilled" with rate hikes and worries that the work the administration has done will be nullified.

...though he said he "put a very good man in" at the Fed in Powell.

“I’m not thrilled,” he told CNBC...“Because we go up and every time you go up they want to raise rates again. I don't really — I am not happy about it. But at the same time I’m letting them do what they feel is best.”

“But I don’t like all of this work that goes into doing what we’re doing.”

Markets reacted to Trump's comments, with stocks, the dollar and Treasury yields all falling...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/19/trump-lays-into-the-fed-says-hes-not-thrilled-ab...

What Comes After Tariffs: An IEEPA Primer
Stephanie Zable | July 19, 2018

...in recent months, news reports have indicated that the president is considering invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).

...The International Emergency Economic Powers Act was passed in 1977 to restrict the president’s powers to declare an indefinite emergency during peacetime. The law permits a president to “deal with any unusual and extraordinary threat, which has its source in whole or substantial part outside the United States, to the national security, foreign policy, or economy of the United States,” if he first declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA).

The law allows the president to:

(A) investigate, regulate, or prohibit—

(i) any transactions in foreign exchange,

(ii) transfers of credit or payments between, by, through, or to any banking institution, to the extent that such transfers or payments involve any interest of any foreign country or a national thereof,

(iii) the importing or exporting of currency or securities, by any person, or with respect to any property, subject to the jurisdiction of the United States;

(B) investigate, block during the pendency of an investigation, regulate, direct and compel, nullify, void, prevent or prohibit, any acquisition, holding, withholding, use, transfer, withdrawal, transportation, importation or exportation of, or dealing in, or exercising any right, power, or privilege with respect to, or transactions involving, any property in which any foreign country or a national thereof has any interest by any person, or with respect to any property, subject to the jurisdiction of the United States.

It also authorizes the president to make regulations “as may be necessary for the exercise of the authorities granted.”

...IEEPA is an incredibly powerful tool that presidents have made considerable use of in the national security sphere. Since the Trump administration has defined strategic competition as a national security concern, it is logical that it would seek to use IEEPA’s broad authority to respond to allegations of anticompetitive Chinese behavior. Such an aggressive step would cause a seismic disruption to markets and to the U.S. relationship with China. For now, external forces seem to have persuaded the president to rely on existing and calibrated measures. But there is no guarantee that this will hold. And if the president decides to use his IEEPA authority, little would stand in his way. The United States exists in a near-permanent state of national emergency, and in that context IEEPA permits the president to take dramatic action with minimal oversight by Congress or the courts.

https://www.lawfareblog.com/what-comes-after-tariffs-ieepa-primer

My understanding of "legalese" is almost non=existent, but the way I read the above, it seems to me it could pretty much be used to stop ANYTHING that involves the transfer of money between the USA to another country. WHile it might be primarily aimed at China, there's no guarantee it wouldn't be used against other countries too.

The Orange One certainly seems to regard national secuirty expansively.
Congress could amend or cancel IEEPA if he misuses it to detriment of economy...
(Better idea, impeach and indict the font of all these bad ideas entirely!)

White House’s tariffs could raise prices on Apple, Sonos, Fitbit products
Makena Kelly | Jul 20, 2018

The tariffs could raise prices by 10 percent

...classify products like the original Apple Watch, Fitbit Charge, and Sonos speakers as “data transmission machines,” and therefore include them on the list.... To bypass the tariffs, the products need to fall back outside the specific codes on the list, as the codes are the result of conversations between regulative bodies and the companies.

https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/20/17594768/white-house-tariffs-china-apple-sono...

The Cost of Trump’s Economic Nationalism: A Loss of Foreign Investment in the United States
Adam S. Posen (PIIE) | July 24, 2018

...Net inward investment into the United States by multinational corporations—both foreign and American—has fallen almost to zero. As I pointed out in a posting in Foreign Affairs this month, this shift of corporate investment away from the United States will decrease long-term US income growth, reduce the number of well-paid jobs available, and accelerate the shift of global commerce away from the United States...

https://piie.com/blogs/trade-investment-policy-watch/cost-trumps-economic-nation...

Chinese Reversing Big U.S. Real Estate Buying Spree That Had Helped Boost Prices
WSJ | July 25, 2018

Chinese investors become net sellers of U.S. commercial property for the first time in a decade

https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/chinese-real-estate-investors-retreat-from-u-s-...

Top Republicans rip Trump’s farm-aid plan as ‘welfare,’ ‘Soviet type of economy’

President Donald Trump plans to offer farmers $12 billion in emergency aid to offset the impact of the administration’s escalating trade war with China.

Corker, Sasse and Ron Johnson are quoted.

Corker: “You have a terrible policy that sends farmers to the poorhouse, and then you put them on welfare, and we borrow the money from other countries. It’s hard to believe there isn’t an outright revolt right now in Congress over what is happening.”

Sasse: “This trade war is cutting the legs out from under farmers and the White House’s ‘plan’ is to spend $12 billion on gold crutches. . . .America’s farmers don’t want to be paid to lose — they want to win by feeding the world.”

Johnson: “This is becoming more and more like a Soviet type of economy here. Commissars deciding who should be granted waivers. Commissars in the administration trying to figure out how they’re going to sprinkle around benefits.”

Potential Impact of 25% Tariff on Top-20 Best Selling Cars in U.S.
Table in:

Trade War: Here’s a List of Products That Will Cost More
Matt Tatham | July 24, 2018
https://www.experian.com/blogs/ask-experian/trade-war-heres-a-list-of-products-t...

The economy’s great. That doesn’t mean Trumponomics is.
Catherine Rampell Columnist | July 26, 2018

...On Friday morning, we’ll get an update on how the U.S. economy, as measured by gross domestic product, is faring. GDP growth is likely to look quite strong in the second quarter: Forecasters expect it to be well above 3 percent on a seasonally adjusted annual basis. Some predictions run as high as 4 or 5 percent. (ETA: 4.1%)

....businesses freaking out about Trump’s trade war likely pulled forward some of their activity...stockpiling raw materials, intermediate goods and finished products before tariffs raised costs on all those things.

...We should expect a reversal later this year, as buyers run down their existing inventory rather than place new orders.

...sugar high from Trump’s tax cuts and spending increases. That may have contributed to second-quarter GDP growth, and will likely lift it throughout this year and next.

...But...such effects to be short-lived. They generally project higher growth this year of around 3 percent, with output then falling back to a longer-run pace of 1.8 percent or so within a few years. These fiscal policies may be costly, but they’re nonetheless too modest to outweigh the other major structural challenges the United States faces, including our aging population.

The federal debt they generate will also weigh on growth in the long run. And, yes, Trump and tea party confederates are racking up debt big league.

...Trump’s own Office of Management and Budget projects that the deficit will reach nearly $900 billion this year and top $1 trillion next year. That’s not even including other new costs on the table, such as a $12 billion bailout for farmers hurt by Trump’s trade war* or $90 billion in additional tax cuts the House passed this week.

...Where are the raises? Output may have swelled last quarter, but paychecks did not...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-economys-great-that-doesnt-mean-trum...

*farmers hurt by Trump’s trade war to be bailed out from money BORROWED from China no doubt...

Coke is raising soda prices because of aluminum tariffs
Jordan Valinsky | July 27, 2018

... Coca-Cola (CCE) has hiked prices on its carbonated drinks because the recently enacted 10% tariff on imported aluminum has made Coke cans more expensive to produce.

CEO James Quincey admitted on the company's earnings call Wednesday that the hike was "disruptive" but necessary.

"Obviously, while customers may understand the cost pressures that are out there on freight, on the increases in steel and aluminum and other input costs that affect the bottling system and affects some of our finished products, clearly, these conversations are difficult," he said on the call.

A Coca-Cola spokesperson told CNNMoney that the increases will vary depending on retailer. The company said it's up to stores to determine whether to raise prices for consumers...

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/27/news/companies/coca-cola-prices-tariffs/index.h...

Insider buying?

Did the Trump 2020 Campaign Order Flags and Banners Made in China?

Bernie Sanders claimed that the president and his re-election campaign are responsible for increased production of Chinese-made "Trump 2020" merchandise.

...Conclusion

It’s clear that Trump 2020 merchandise is being produced in Chinese factories, and it’s reasonable to conclude that the future implementation of tariffs on Chinese imports has prompted something of a surge in orders (just before the imposition of U.S. tariffs), as recounted by several local factory officials.

The volume of the orders (90,000 banners between March and July, at just one factory) is not inconsistent with the activities of a major U.S. presidential election campaign, and it is therefore reasonable to question the identity of the customer(s) behind such orders. However, we’ve so far found no concrete evidence documenting who is responsible for these orders: merchandisers, the Trump campaign itself, Republican partisans, foreign entities, or some combination thereof.

https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/trump-2020-flags-china/

Canada to join Mexico, Japan, South Korea and the EU in auto tariff talks
The Canadian Press · Posted: Jul 29, 2018

...Japan and the European Union organized the meeting for Tuesday in Geneva, where vice and deputy ministers from Canada, the EU, Japan and South Korea will gather to talk about the punishing levies threatened by U.S. President Donald Trump.

...Trump has threatened to impose tariffs under Section 232 of the decades-old U.S. Trade Expansion Act. The legislation allows the president, under certain circumstances, to impose duties recommended by his commerce secretary under the notion that the goods being imported are a threat to national security...

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-auto-tariffs-mexico-japan-south-korea-eu...

'Happy with tariffs': Steel industry emerges as trade war winner
Matt Egan | July 29, 2018

...Tariffs levied by the United States and major trading partners are eating into the profits of Harley-Davidson (HOG), General Motors (GM), General Electric (GE), 3M (MMM) and hundreds of other companies. CEOs are scrambling to raise prices and reshuffle their supply chains.

Unsurprisingly, steel companies are feasting on a price spike from Trump's 25% steel tariff. The benchmark price of US-made steel has zoomed 41% higher since the start of the year to $917 per short ton, according to S&P Global Platts.

Tariffs aren't the only factor. Steel demand is strong in an economy that just clocked its fastest growth since 2014.

...Material costs have risen by as much as 50% at FJM Ferro, a Brooklyn company that fabricates steel used in Manhattan skyscrapers...

https://money.cnn.com/2018/07/29/investing/stocks-week-ahead-steel-tariffs-trade...

China's four trump cards in the trade war
William Pesek | July 30, 2018

Beijing is deploying weapons the US did not anticipate

...There are many ways for China to hit back. Xi could devalue the yuan to boost China Inc.'s global edge. He could add new layers of red tape for companies producing in China, including Apple. Licenses could be harder to come by and factory inspections more frequent. Beijing could offer preferential market access to Asia and Europe. And why not encourage a widespread boycott of U.S. goods?

...China is quietly reminding the White House it also holds non-trade trump cards. Here are four:

One, knocking back corporate deals...

Two, telling Facebook to get lost...

Three, playing the Taiwan card...

Four, calling in Washington's loans...

Far from being "easy," Xi is a cagey operator keen on using levers that have not occurred to this White House. Xi is now far more likely to dig in his heels further in creative ways, prompting Trump to push even harder. And there is nothing good about that for global growth...

https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-four-trump-cards-in-the-trade-war

Senator Jeff Flake holds up judicial confirmations (except Kavanaugh, I think) in bid to force Senate action against Trump tariffs:

Here is the upshot of what Flake is doing:

Mitch McConnell kept the Senate in session in August (instead of recessing), so they could confirm Trump's judicial nominees, but Flake took his own recess for most of August. He's on judiciary, so now they can't confirm the judges:

Jeff Flake @JeffFlake
Sunset this evening in rural Zimbabwe. Tomorrow, election day, marks a new day for this beautiful country.

James Hasson @JamesHasson 4:14 PM - 30 Jul 2018
https://twitter.com/JamesHasson20/status/1024070751933087745

While I see "Buy Canadian" on Facebook, I didn't see evidence of it in my fellow grocery shoppers' carts in Ontario this summer. Individual brands are duking it out, however. One sees Canadian brands in sales promotions (Kawartha ice-cream), but also Heinz ketchup, apparently in a bid to recapture slipping market share from continuing boycott. (Started years ago when new owners closed massive operation in rural Ontario, moving production south to Ohio.)

I was relieved that Canadian ire was not directed at individual Americans--absolutely no change in friendliness. I'm especially careful on Cdn highways (with my US plates) to avoid drawing road rage of the inevitable nutball, though.

In Canada’s Grocery Carts, a Boycott U.S.A. Movement Starts Rolling
Kim Mackrael | Aug. 5, 2018 ​

Consumers irritated by Trump’s tariffs and bashing of Trudeau are buying Canadian; cross-border production chains challenge boycotters

...It is difficult to say whether the nascent boycott efforts are having an impact. Goods exports to Canada were up nearly 4% in June from the same month last year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. However, they were down 1.2% when compared with the previous month on a seasonally adjusted basis.

One sector where the boycott efforts doesn’t seem to be working is travel. Overall cross-border car trips by Canadians were up 12.7% in June from the same month last year, according to Statistics Canada.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-canadas-grocery-carts-a-boycott-u-s-a-movement-s...

_______________________________________________________________________________________

Pullback by Chinese home buyers may not be a bad thing for Seattle?
(Vancouver, BC, and I think, Toronto, Ont, applied surcharges to discourage absentee foreign owners from bidding up downtown condo prices.)

Seattle housing market is under pressure as Chinese buying 'dries up'
Diana Olick | 3 Aug 2018

In the last two years, both Chinese investors and families hoping to send their kids to American universities have fueled demand for housing in Seattle, which has long enjoyed a strong Asian culture.
But the Chinese yuan's recent fall in value against the U.S. dollar has made housing more expensive for Chinese buyers.
In the Seattle metropolitan area, home prices skyrocketed 45 percent between August 2016 and now. On a currency-adjusted basis, for Chinese buyers, they are up 54 percent.

...Stephen Saunders is a managing broker with Coldwell Banker Seattle and works with Chinese investors in the Seattle market. "It's drying up," he said. "I just don't see the same kind of volume. The downtown Seattle condo market has come to a grinding halt, and that's where Chinese buyers were."

Most of his clients are looking for properties in the $1 million to $3 million range, but he said the slowdown in buying is not all about the yuan.

"It's not necessarily the decline in the currency, it is the increasing restrictions on getting money out. It's just getting tighter and tighter," he said, adding that the trade war between the U.S. and China is hitting the finances of some of his investor clients. As for Chinese families looking to buy homes for their children in the area, in just the past six to 10 months, "that's dried up substantially," he said.

Despite the increase in the supply of Seattle homes for sale, inventory is still incredibly low at barely two months' worth, based on the level of sales. This is the same trend throughout the West, where overheated home prices have caused buyers to pull back...

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/02/seattle-housing-market-is-under-pressure-as-chin...

Empowered by Trump, Saudi Arabia feels free to kick Canada--hard!
I used to think Canada was protected by what other nations would think if US attacked Canada (in conventional sense).
But I was assuming a US leader with conscience, etc. NYET!
(Never mind Canada, can you imagine what it will cost Saudi Arabia in wasted time and money to pull its thousands of med and engineering students from Canadian schools?? Talk about cutting off nose to spite one's face!!)

Canada to ask allies to help cool Saudi dispute; U.S. offers no aid
David Ljunggren \ August 7, 2018
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-saudi-canada-diplomacy/canada-to-ask-allies-t...

In reality, when has the USA ever acted in the interests of another country? Yes, of course it is much worse under Trump,but the reality is that during WW11, Canada was part of the War right away when it started in 1939. The USA stayed out of the War 11 until Pearl Harbour was bombed by Japan, in December of 1941. It was Canada that allowed all of the USA airplanes to land on 9/11. The USA has a history of being isolationist, and seems to be going back to that under Trump. I wish Canada would just say - don't land your Saudi planes in Canada anymore, and cancel the stupid , controversial deal that our previous government made to sell arms to Saudi Arabia. We are not the only country to have gotten into a spat with Saudi Arabia.

http://www.cbc.ca/news/thenational/national-today-newsletter-saudia-arabia-canad...

Saudi response was so out of proportion, you have to wonder what else is going on. I could see them calling Cdn ambassador in for talking-to over a TWEET, for heaven's sake. Expelling seems a bit much, but cancelling flights, pulling students, ending trade, maybe cancelling otder for military vehicles--what the Trump??

South Carolina manufacturer says it's closing plant over Trump tariffs
Aris Folley | 08/07/18

Element Electronics, a consumer electronics company in South Carolina, says it will be closing its plant in Winnsboro due to tariffs imposed by President Trump.

...one of the largest remaining employers in Fairfield County after the local Walmart, which used to be the largest grocery store in the county, closed its doors two years ago...also...plans were canceled to build two nuclear reactors in the area, terminating 5,000 construction jobs.

...Element said “the layoff and closure is a result of the new tariffs that were recently and unexpectedly imposed on many goods imported from China, including the key television components used in our assembly operations in Winnsboro"...it hopes the closure will be temporary and added that it could reopen the plant in “three to six months, but we cannot predict this with any certainty at this time.”... it plans to start laying off workers in October, a move that will reportedly cost the county 126 jobs.

http://thehill.com/policy/finance/400761-south-carolina-manufacturer-says-its-cl...

Good to recall 'the good old days':

‘Pass, friend’: Franklin Delano Roosevelt’s words in Kingston, Ont., resonate today
Bryan Paterson | Aug 9, 2018

(Receiving an honorary degree from Queen's U in 1938, FDR)...“We as good neighbours are true friends, because we maintain our own rights with frankness...because we refuse to accept the twists of secret diplomacy, because we settle our disputes by consultation and because we discuss our common problems in the spirit of the common good.”

(As WW2 loomed) “I give to you assurance that the people of the United States will not stand idly by if domination of Canadian soil is threatened.”

...dedicat(ing) the International Bridge (later the Thousand Islands Bridge) linking Canada and the United States.

“This bridge stands as an open door,” Roosevelt said. “There will be no challenge at the border and no guard to ask a countersign. Where the boundary is crossed the only words must be, ‘Pass, friend.’ ”

...“Canada clasps the American hand with her faith and goodwill,” said Winston Churchill in 1939. “That long frontier from the Atlantic to the Pacific Oceans, guarded only by neighbourly respect and honourable obligations, is an example to every country and a pattern for the future of the world.”

A decade after..., (Eleanor) Roosevelt...peacefully, and simply, crossed the same bridge her late husband had dedicated.

“In these troubled times, it is well to emphasize again how two nations have lived so many years side by side, with quick access to each other’s territory, and still have no fear of the misuse of this ready access into each other’s countries,” the former First Lady wrote...

...(Current mayor of Kingston, ON, Bryan Patterson)...accommodations will be made, compromises sought and NAFTA and other agreements fine-tuned...there is no weakness in that...friendship between Canada and the United States rests upon permanent foundations.

https://www.macleans.ca/opinion/pass-friend-franklin-delano-roosevelts-words-in-...

>147 margd: Would this book even be created today? Between friends = Entre amis
It was a gift from Canada in celebration of the US bicentennial, celebrating the friendship of the two nations and their 5,522 mile border.

Translation: Agent Orange needs some kind of trade/foreign affairs "win" before the midterms.
(Earlier in negotiations, it was Mexico who feared being left out.)

Deal with Mexico is coming along nicely. Autoworkers and farmers must be taken care of or there will be no deal. New President of Mexico has been an absolute gentleman. Canada must wait. Their Tariffs and Trade Barriers are far too high. Will tax cars if we can’t make a deal!

Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump
4:12 PM - 10 Aug 2018

Nothing like waging economic warfare against your friends and allies. I wonder how he's going to act if it ever comes to Israel or Saudi Arabia. We've already had a pretty good glimpse of who holds the upper hand between him and Putin.

‘’In politics, as in road making, it is a great thing, Mr. President, to know how to build bridges.’’
--then Prime Minister William Lyon Mackenzie King to FDR, 80 years ago today.

The ties between the two countries are long and sometimes strangely entwined. Apparently, the PM's "grandfather*, imprisoned in the United States, had received a Presidential pardon from Martin Van Buren after being convicted of encouraging Canadian exiles to invade Upper Canada (Ontario). And then, he thought with wonder, a century later, he was riding the streets of an early Canadian capital (Kingston, Ontario) with a later president, both of them, as he wrote in his diary, ‘’receiving the friendliest cheers of the people assembled.’’"

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-day-america-vowed-to-defend-...

*https://www.britannica.com/biography/William-Lyon-Mackenzie

‘We Are at the Limit’: Trump’s Tariffs Turn Small Businesses Upside Down
Ruth Simon | Aug. 8, 2018

They lack the wiggle room to absorb cost increases or shift production, and many are re-evaluating plans and strategies...

https://www.wsj.com/articles/we-are-at-the-limit-trumps-tariffs-turn-small-busin...

‘They don’t have legal authority’: Quebec NAFTA negotiator says US can’t sign deal without Canada
Giuseppe Valiante | August 13, 2018

...Raymond Bachand, an ex-Quebec finance minister, said “there is no worry whatsoever” the current one-on-one talks between the United States and Mexico will end in a trade deal signed without Canada.

Bilateral NAFTA negotiations between the two countries have been building momentum in recent weeks, while Canada has yet to return to the table this summer.

U.S. President Donald Trump recently stated a deal with Mexico “is coming along nicely” and “Canada must wait.”

The president has also said he would be interested in signing separate deals with both countries.

Even if Trump really wanted that, Bachand said, he couldn’t get it.

“If the U.S. wanted a bilateral deal — and they don’t, they’ve repeated often they want a trilateral deal — they don’t have legal authority.”

“They have the authority from Congress to negotiate a trilateral NAFTA deal in a fast-track way — meaning Congress votes yes or no on the final deal once it’s been reached. They don’t have that (fast-track) authority for a bilateral deal.”

Bachand made the comments in Stowe, Vt., during the two-day annual conference between governors of New England states and the premiers of Quebec and the eastern Canadian provinces.

Not a single U.S. governor or senator has asked to pull their country out of NAFTA, Bachand said, which is Canada’s true trump card in the negotiations, he added.

“So all the so-called modernization attempts the president wants with NAFTA, there is a kind of red line,” Bachand said. “NAFTA will continue because the power in the U.S. Senate is very strong in commercial decisions, and governors also have a big influence.”...

https://globalnews.ca/news/4385146/they-dont-have-legal-authority-quebec-nafta-n...