1Limelite
Trump Being Drowned by Building Blue Tidal Wave
Analysis of the more than 80 million votes cast before election already offers clues about the ultimate election outcome. Keep in mind that not all states require voters to declare party affiliation, so the data analysis doesn't reflect the mood and trends in the entire nation. Tuesday night will. Analysis performed by AP.
Here are current clues.
1. New voters are heading to the polls More than 1 out of 4 of all voters — approximately 27 percent — were either “new or infrequent voters.” The data indicates that 43 percent of the new or infrequent voters are registered Democrats, whereas only about a quarter of those early voters are registered Republicans.
2. Democratic early voting lead As of Friday, October 30, Democrats lead in early voting making up 47 percent of the turnout. Republicans, on the other hand, only account for 33 percent of early voting turnout.
3. Black voter turnout remains steady There’s been a surge in the older African-American vote. Black voters 65 and older are already one of the most reliable voting demographics, but according to TargetSmart data they have already surpassed their numbers in six key battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas.
4. Young voters may also offer a Democratic advantage Reported by AlterNet, Biden carries a significant lead over Trump among young voters aged 18-24. Among Millennials, Biden holds a stable lead over Trump. Sunbelt battlegrounds of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, young voter turnout accounted for 30 percent of the vote.
If you have early voter (in person, absentee/mail-in, military, and other) statistics from your home state, please post them! Have any states authorized online voting?
Analysis of the more than 80 million votes cast before election already offers clues about the ultimate election outcome. Keep in mind that not all states require voters to declare party affiliation, so the data analysis doesn't reflect the mood and trends in the entire nation. Tuesday night will. Analysis performed by AP.
Here are current clues.
1. New voters are heading to the polls More than 1 out of 4 of all voters — approximately 27 percent — were either “new or infrequent voters.” The data indicates that 43 percent of the new or infrequent voters are registered Democrats, whereas only about a quarter of those early voters are registered Republicans.
2. Democratic early voting lead As of Friday, October 30, Democrats lead in early voting making up 47 percent of the turnout. Republicans, on the other hand, only account for 33 percent of early voting turnout.
3. Black voter turnout remains steady There’s been a surge in the older African-American vote. Black voters 65 and older are already one of the most reliable voting demographics, but according to TargetSmart data they have already surpassed their numbers in six key battlegrounds — Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Texas.
4. Young voters may also offer a Democratic advantage Reported by AlterNet, Biden carries a significant lead over Trump among young voters aged 18-24. Among Millennials, Biden holds a stable lead over Trump. Sunbelt battlegrounds of Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, young voter turnout accounted for 30 percent of the vote.
If you have early voter (in person, absentee/mail-in, military, and other) statistics from your home state, please post them! Have any states authorized online voting?
2lriley
I know Texas and Hawaii have already surpassed their voting numbers for 2016. I was looking at a list of several states that had already crossed over 80% of what they did in 2016.
I and my wife voted on wednesday in upstate New York. There was a pretty decent line and I'm sure upstate numbers are pretty high and there have been a lot of people vote in the NYC area. There are areas upstate where republicans do well but all in all NYC swamps everything. There is also a lot of anger against Trump for his coronavirus debacle.
I and my wife voted on wednesday in upstate New York. There was a pretty decent line and I'm sure upstate numbers are pretty high and there have been a lot of people vote in the NYC area. There are areas upstate where republicans do well but all in all NYC swamps everything. There is also a lot of anger against Trump for his coronavirus debacle.
4Limelite
Yeah, great site. In my home state, a historically red state thought to be a possible win for Biden this year, probably the most surprising statistic is that female voters have surpassed male voters by over 12 pts. More than half of female voters already have cast their ballots.
5lriley
#4--women tend to very much lead the way these days. I'm not all that surprised about Georgia being in contention. It was very much in contention in 2018 for Governor and likely would have gone to Abrams without all the voter suppression by Kemp. Your state is trending in the right direction which also means to stay on top the republicans are going to give you more than an eyeful of dirty tricks. Both Senate seats are kind of in contention too.
I should add that Biden winning should mean that ERA finally can become a constitutional amendment. Virginia put that over the threshold a couple years ago but it's been held up by McConnell and his brethren. There is the conservative packed court now though.
I should add that Biden winning should mean that ERA finally can become a constitutional amendment. Virginia put that over the threshold a couple years ago but it's been held up by McConnell and his brethren. There is the conservative packed court now though.
6margd
George Conway @gtconway3d | 11:45 AM · Nov 1, 2020:
There are so many ways @realDonaldTrump can lose this election.
But there's one that, for me, (especially) illustrates the dire position he's in.
If he merely loses MI (16 EV), AZ (11), WI (10) and NE-2 (1), and wins everything else he won in 2016 (including FL and PA),
he loses, 268-270.
There are so many ways @realDonaldTrump can lose this election.
But there's one that, for me, (especially) illustrates the dire position he's in.
If he merely loses MI (16 EV), AZ (11), WI (10) and NE-2 (1), and wins everything else he won in 2016 (including FL and PA),
he loses, 268-270.
