David Holmgren

More theoretical than practical, with a lot of dense explication of the currently unsustainable nature of society that doesn't really help the neophyte practitioner to put these ideas into practice. Still, the identification of the basic principles alone is useful, demonstrating how uncommon "common sense" can be.

Quick, interesting thinking about the future. His concept of how political power could evolve seems spot on, while the cultural side is... potentially correct but leaves more room for discussion. Those interested in planning should probably browse through the scenario options.

Interesting counterpoint on managing invasive species. I still hate the Oriental bittersweet and morning glory taking over my yard. The thesis is that invasive species are a symptom of a degraded ecosystem, and that invasives can play a role in helping it heal.

Human civilisation today faces two unprecedented challenges: the threat of climate change and the peaking of global oil supply. Energy supply has been one of the strongest factors in determining human history, and there are strong signs that we are now in the early stages of an energy transition that will shake our economy to its core. At the same time, the accelerating evidence of climate change has made this environmental crisis a top international priority.

Rarely are these two issues show more considered in combination, but each affects the way we can respond to the other. The possibilities for our future range from "techno-explosion" to civilisation collapse; but another possibility is energy descent, where available energy and organisational complexity progressively decline. Many sustainability strategists believe that energy descent may be inevitable.

There is a desperate need to recast energy descent as a positive process that can free people from the dysfunctions of growth economics. Future Scenarios uses a planning model incorporating the spectrums of climate change and peak oil to generate four "energy descent" scenarios – "brown tech", "green tech", "lifeboats" and "Earth steward" – representing various future pathways. It uses the principles of permaculture – a design system founded on reduced resource availability – to show how we can deal with energy descent in the most graceful way possible.

The Author: David Holmgren is a futurist and the co-originator of the permaculture concept with Bill Mollison. He lives with his partner and their son at Melliodora, a one-hectare permaculture demonstration site at Hepburn Springs, Central Victoria, Australia. David's website can be found at www.holmgren.com.au. show less