Trump and Irma (or: Worst Nightmares for Florida et al.)

Needs a new thread. This is going to be a historic storm, already having earned a place in the record books as one of only 7 tropical cyclones ever to achieve surface windspeed of 180mph or greater in the Atlantic.
cf.: https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905052619835457537 (now out of date as Irma has intensified to 180mph).
Also, it's already the strongest on record in the Atlantic basin outside of the Caribbean or GOM.

The models all imply historic devastation of one description or another, with Florida involved in one way or another by most estimates. Up until now, all the news has been consistently bad.

As I stated on the last thread: (https://www.librarything.com/topic/268087)

Depending on the track, this could easily be a disaster to dwarf Harvey. (Or, at best, it could be merely a catastrophic storm for some unlucky spots).
Anyone who knows anyone in the threatened track area needs to make sure their people are on the ball. NOW.

---------------------------
Latest advisories:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/051445.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/051446.shtml?

Latest cone:


Latest recon measurement (not yet official) 923.6mb
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905082199858438144

And a source for reporting from the Caribbean islands, many of which are going to be thoroughly blasted.
http://stormcarib.com/

No, those numbers aren't fake.

On the political end, one transplant from the Harvey thread:

How would Trump respond to this?

Hurricane Irma: storm heads to Caribbean as states of emergency declared
Fears parts of Puerto Rico could be without power for months once fast-developing category 5 storm hits
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/05/hurricane-irma-states-of-emergency...

(And dare I ask how he'd respond to a direct hit on Cuba?)

Remember, you don't want to get caught out being poor when disaster strikes from First Dog on the Moon in the Grauniad

Today is the day I discovered Twitter Moments.
https://twitter.com/i/moments/905057884161146880

Which apprised me of this...
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905092034863693825

So: here we've got a hurricane that registers on seismometers, long before landfall.
That's... unusual, isn't it?

--------------------------------
See also:
https://twitter.com/TWCBryan/status/905041026049609729
https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus/status/905100441658195971

New Cat 6 blog update from Weather Underground.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-5th-strongest-atlantic-hurrica...

The comments sections on these are very lively. Yesterday's had over 16,000 comments.

"HWRF 12z suggests continued intensification of Hurricane #Irma to 909 mb north of Puerto Rico. Winds of 200-knots at 900-mb."
That's 230mph at ~1km elevation. Under normal conditions. Under these conditions? More like 500 ft elevation, I'm hearing. I could look up the relevant formulas and calculate it myself, but I'm actually not sure I want to know.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905116582518693889

NO WORDS. This looks more like a Pacific supertyphoon than anything we've seen in the Atlantic.

ETA: NHC reports it's reached 185 mph. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

New cone.


I'm gonna nap. Would be nice if someone would post the cone at 5 PM. And maybe at 8 PM.

Note to self: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?cone and here's a clock running AST https://time.is/AST

So 5 PM AST = 11 PM here (Paris/Copenhagen), and 8 PM AST = 2 AM here (Paris/Copenhagen).
I'll probably be taking a nap too, but maybe not, so the notes above might be handy.

Ah, here's the 5 PM version. (Taking the png picture and scaling it 57.7% and converting to jpg.)



and the 11 PM version (I missed the 8 PM if there was one because I was at sleep):



It's also been noticed here in Denmark: http://ekstrabladet.dk/nyheder/samfund/paa-vej-mod-florida-orkanen-irma-saetter-...

And a live map, where you can also see Jose lining up and gathering strength:
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-66.27,17....

Many thanks.

Watching Levi Cowan's latest update:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/06/tuesday-night-catastrophic-hurri...

And a new Wunderground post : https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-...

Shaping up to be a direct hit on Barbuda, I think.

With Harvey and Irma, US Navy, FEMA, Red Cross will have hands full. Sounds like there will be a lot of need in US--and others in the Caribbean.

Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands Brace for Hurricane Irma
Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands are preparing for the potentially devastating effects of one of the strongest storms to ever hit the region.
Vann R. Newkirk II | Sep 5, 2017

...Nothing highlights the deep structural poverty and inequalities of a place like a disaster, and those fissures are much deeper in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands than most areas in the continental United States. Puerto Rico especially is already in the throes of health and financial issues, and faces deep strain on the infrastructure across the island. And the Virgin Islands, facing the worst of the storm, has its own health-care challenges that might make long-term recovery difficult...

Edit: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/the-american-territories-ge...
(Thanks #11!)

Radar. My god. http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/Irma_6Sep17_Martinique.gif

>9 margd: Broken link. This works: https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/09/the-american-territories-ge...

UK Met office intensity guidance is less... optimistic than the NHC's.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/data/tropicalcyclone/wtnt80.txt

Meanwhile the latest GFS suggests possibility GA/SC landfall
https://twitter.com/JohnMoralesNBC6/status/905257652892127232
but the Euro (which has been most accurate by far to date) still saying Florida, probably west.

Levi Cowan is live-tweeting Barbuda. https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905299118028967936

915mb from recon https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905302711083642881

Amazing sat image: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905306145794949120

New Euro model run. Trending east. Missing Cuba. Shows near miss on Miami.

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905314188880486400
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905315642928222208

2AM cone. They're not moving it east yet.

St. Barts is next. There's a webcam linked here, which so far is still up.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...
Direct: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hG-GpHPkBoM

The viewers have named the palm tree "Hector."

ETA: Dead.

There's one more. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PQue2IVKQy0
Can't see a thing. Someone says it looks like the inside of a washing machine. That's about right.
Maybe once the eye comes over.

ETA: Nope. Dead.

5am is out. 914mb.


And now the NHC is responding to the models with a big eastern shift compared to 2am.

St. Barts should be in the eye. St. Martin & Anguilla on deck.

Tweets from a Londoner in St. Martin. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

What the actual fuck? We're getting it from all sides. This could seriously interfere with comms.
http://www.solarham.net/

September 6, 2017 @ 09:25 UTC
X-Flare!
Region 2673 just produced a major X2.2 solar flare at approximately 09:10 UTC (Sept 6). This is the first X-Class event to be detected since May 2015. The active region is still in a decent position for Earth directed eruptions. More updates will be provided should a coronal mass ejection (CME) be associated. More to follow.

And Irma's 400 miles wide now.

A wind visualisation - https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-60.45,18....

No cone change I can see for the 8am intermediate:

Photos/Videos starting to come in.

"from st barths, via director of a french news outlet in martinique "
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/78d09eaa8f736849e5d948ce3d31ce824bb40793e44...

"Irma - des images de Saint Barth @ParisMatch"
https://twitter.com/pau_lallement/status/905395560022233090

Another St Barth
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJCXXEJXcAAN3Ze.jpg
------------------------------------------------------------

"video from st. martin via RCI Guadeloupe, looking horrible, hope everybody survived"
https://twitter.com/RCI_GP/status/905381154970329088

"Wow this is how #Irma Is affecting St. Martin. Flooding, storm surge and wind damage visible #hurricaneIrma ." -- probably from inside the eye
https://twitter.com/StormchaserUKEU/status/905387089247784960

St. Maarten
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9c59aa157684ba294c74d9476e638e61f00f5864b70...

"#HURRICANE IRMA 06/09/17 #Marigot By Laurent Petit ce matin #StMartin ##SXM #IRMA"
https://twitter.com/bienglace/status/905398354275946496

More in the Guardian
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

"The reports coming out of St Martin are devastating. I can’t even compile them into one post. Hospital has lost its roof, lots of gendarme posts have lost roofs, the prefecture is destroyed. 23 people are trapped in a small concrete room. The mayor of St Barth’s sent a text saying it’s a disaster. Marigot is under water, nettle baie is under water. Haven’t heard any reports from orient bay or family. Very, very scared right now."
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-5-irma-storms-leeward-...

That's one way to find out who's been building up to code...
-------------------------------------------------------------

As for Antigua: it's apparently in relatively good shape per the governor's tweet. But he didn't specifically mention Barbuda. And frankly, I'm not immediately seeing any news at all from Barbuda. That may not be a good sign.
-------------------------------------------------------------

Keep in mind: most of the above images likely were taken while under the eye. The back end would have soon followed, with a few more hours of fury.

---------------------------
Here's a BVI camera (Jost Van Dyke), which will be getting busy before long.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IjGdi7z_B4U

>22 davidgn: From the Guardian:

...Tropical storm Jose, the weather system behind Irma, is now forecast to become a hurricane by tonight. It is forecast to hit the Caribbean islands currently being lashed by Irma, at the weekend. Another tropical storm, Katia, has formed in the Gulf of Mexico...

>23 margd: Katia's going to make some rain in the Yucatan (actually, probably going west, and/or around in circles), and from what I'm hearing Jose is probably going out to sea and just missing the Lesser Antilles. (Unless it doesn't.)
Still, not exactly conducive to fostering the perception that the Atlantic does not want us all dead...

Here's what I have on Barbuda :

The governors' statement (doubtless from Antigua, and hopefully not premature):
https://twitter.com/gastonbrowne/status/905367390380285953

http://www.newsweek.com/hurricane-irma-leaves-scientists-utter-loss-words-it-hit... (at landfall)
“No way to sugarcoat it. Irma is the type of tropical cyclone that wipes everything, including all vegetation, clean from small islands,” wrote Anthony Sagliani, the Meteorological Operations Manager at weather data firm Earth Networks.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/06/world/americas/hurricane-irma-update.html?mcu...

Storm damage is reported in Barbuda.

Irma tore the roof off a police station on Barbuda, forcing officers to take shelter in a nearby fire station, The Associated Press reported.

Midcie Francis of the National Office of Disaster Services (Is this person even on the same island? --davidgn) said that there had been damage to several homes but that the authorities had not yet assessed the extent of the destruction.

Residents and officials were particularly worried about the storm surge. Barbuda is flat, with a maximum elevation of no more than 150 feet, though most of its small population lives in and around the town of Codrington, which is at or close to sea level.

“Unfortunately, in Barbuda there are few buffers if a significant storm surge is experienced,” The Daily Observer newspaper said in an editorial on Monday.

Dario Barthley, a project officer with Cricket West Indies, the sport’s governing body in the region, said in a text message that more than 1,000 residents moved before the storm into the island’s only shelter, leaving hundreds more potentially exposed.

“It’s one of the flattest Caribbean islands, so the devastation will be a lot worse there, sad to say,” Mr. Barthely said.

Residents of Antigua also expressed concern about Barbudans in text messages and on social media. Phone lines to the sister island have been down for hours, leaving most residents there unreachable, Antiguans said.

And that's all I've got. Any other signs of life?

eta: From Trinidadian media.
Hurricane Irma: Concern mounts as communication lost with Barbuda
http://www.looptt.com/content/hurricane-irma-concern-mounts-communication-lost-b...

Globe long on background & speculation, short on info:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/news/nation/2017/09/06/where-barbuda-and-how-has-bee...

---------------------
Guardian 3 minutes ago:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

The Antigua Met Service reports minimal damage to both Antigua and Barbuda where Irma first made landfall.

But there has been no contact with Barbuda since 12.30am.

Three people sought medical attention at the St John Medical Centre on Antigua, and several roofs were damaged on the island.

Also Guardian has great live coverage of all the other islands.
------------------------

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-41172726

"The four "most solid" buildings on Saint Martin, shared by France and the Netherlands, were destroyed, French Interior Minister Gérard Collomb said....more rustic structures" had "probably been completely or partially destroyed"

And it may not yet have fully reached St Martin yet!

>26 reading_fox: No, it's left St Martin at this point. I'm sure the rear end is still giving trouble, but Irma is shipping out, headed to the BVI and Puerto Rico.
Here's the French radar again: http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/Irma_6Sep17_Martinique.gif

From east to west, shows the direct hits on Barbuda, St Barts, St Martin, and Anguilla, with the BVI in the crosshairs at the very edge of radar.

ETA: Here's San Juan radar, which picks it up.

http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/irma17/Irma_6-7Sep17_JUA.gif

The latest models are shifting seriously east. Charleston, SC is getting nervous.
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CHS&product=A...
This would be their first really big hit since Hugo.
(And this is how I was introduced to Hugo as a kid: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nvsMWMQjLCY -- might have lacked some verisimilitude :-p )

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905427331757604865
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905428188641316864
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905429639669190656

We'll see what NHC do with the cone at 11. Probably they'll adjust it somewhat east, though maybe not in earnest until the data from latest European run comes in this afternoon. (Just my guess, but I imagine the last thing they want is for Florida to let down its guard, then have the track guidance revert.)

Carolina people: take note.

Here are the 11AM advisories:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/061448.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCMAT1+shtml/061444.shtml?
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/061448.shtml?

And the new cone, which is about what I figured, albeit maybe just a touch further east (and closer to the models).

Levi Cowan has a text update:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/06/wednesday-morning-update/

Aand... the most recent GFS run is coming in, with a shift to the SSW.
ETA: 102-hours GFS now looks like a fairly direct hit on Miami.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/e6fa2abf9cdedd03142c1a5860c7b72455c85f6af1d...

The Euro should be interesting.

Finally: here's a working USVI cam, south side of St. Thomas.
https://www.earthcam.com/world/virginislands/stthomas/?cam=stthomas

The BVI cams I've seen seem to be down.

There's a nice little craft brewery near Frenchman's Cove in St Thomas--awful close to sea level...
Brewery's on 2nd floor but building didn't look robust...

Check out this piece of shit.
https://twitter.com/PolkCoSheriff/status/905438240278278144
+1 @alt_labor .

As someone else put it: "Translation: 'So you have a warrant for missing a court date for speeding? The penalty is.... death.'"
Another: "That's it..scare people into having to call for rescue later.."

(Foreigners and the sheltered may find this piece of social background helpful, wherein John Oliver introduces the concept of the "fuck barrel": http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2015/03/23/john-oliver-fuck-barrel_n_6921650.html )

New Wunderground blog post.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/category-5-irma-hits-leeward-islands-peak-stre...

The most important bit:

Models have been very consistent that Irma will take a sharp turn toward the north-northwest during the weekend, working its way around the west end of an upper-level ridge that has been steering Irma all week. The crucial question is exactly where and when Irma will take this right-hand turn, as that will play a huge role in possible impacts to the Southeast U.S. coast. Our top models shifted eastward on Tuesday night in their predictions of where the right-hand turn will occur, and the consensus is now that Irma is most likely to track from south to north either across the Florida Peninsula or just east of it, perhaps remaining near the coastline until moving further inland somewhere from Georgia to North Carolina. Irma is not expected to track sharply away from the Southeast U.S. coastline. A track along or just off the west coast of Florida is still possible. None of our reliable models bring Irma any further west than the Florida Panhandle, so the chance of Irma moving deeply into the central or western Gulf is increasingly remote. A track that curves north and stays just east of Florida is also possible; such a track could still bring Irma into the East Coast at a point further north early next week. Figures 6, 7 and 8 below show the range of possibilities in ensemble model guidance from Tuesday night (ensemble models include a number of parallel forecasts that reflect the uncertainty in a given weather situation).

In short, computer guidance is in strong agreement that Irma will make at least one landfall somewhere from Florida to North Carolina during the weekend or early next week. The official NHC forecast track as of 11 am Wednesday brings Irma from near Miami to near Daytona Beach from Sunday morning to Monday morning. The 12Z Tuesday run of the GFS model predicts that Irma will hit Miami on Sunday afternoon, then make a second landfall near the Georgia/South Carolina border on Monday afternoon, with both landfalls occurring with at least Category 4 strength.

The entire Florida peninsula and southeast Georgia are within the five-day cone of uncertainty in the official NHC forecast, and all residents of these areas should pay especially close attention to the progress of Irma. Residents of southeast Florida need to be especially vigilant.

-------------------

BVI are in the eye.
https://twitter.com/GusJaspert/status/905482971146317824/photo/1

--------------------

And after a short hiccup, looks like Irma's back to re-intensifying
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905477938891681792

-------------------

And speaking of pieces of shit:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2017/09/06/rush-limbaughs-dangero...

Thus we have two of the president's biggest promoters in the media telling people that news about a storm — or perhaps even the storm itself — is fake.

The GFS 12z ensembles are out. Mostly clustering @ spine or east coast of FL.
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/101de124570674fb3bd04a90fc971e453ca86f5353f...

And here's the 2PM cone:


Still 185mph, back down to 920mb.

Might need help getting the 5pm & 8pm up. With luck the eyewall stays offshore from San Juan as predicted, but I need a nap, and I'd rather not look for that one anyhow.

I like poking around this NOAH buoy data map. Stations nearest the eye get blown out frequently but you can pick up average wave heights {some 20+ feet even while 100 miles away} along with some wind data. The eye passing right over several islands with 150mph+ winds! Must be incredible destruction.

Click on Caribbean Sea in the list and you can zoom or move around to find buoy stations.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/

Thanks davidgn for the fascinating posts. I had my whole family here at the machine looking it all over.

@davidgn, I too appreciate all the informative posts. My cousins in Houston are okay but now I'm worried about my Florida cousins.

Thanks from me also David, Great info before i was awake this morning! Looks like we are going to get at least a piece of Irma here in the Carolinas. Hoping not another Hugo - we had sustained 70 mph winds and electricity out for a week.

>37 Taphophile13: I was going to make a sort of sardonic observation about my family being largely from South Dakota when I recalled I have a cousin in Houston...we aren't a terribly close family.

>39 RickHarsch: I don't really know my Houston cousins well either. We may not be terribly close, but that doesn't stop us (all of us) from caring about each other—or even about strangers when they're in need. Didn't someone say ask not for whom the bell tolls, . . . ? We're all in this together.

Thanks all for the kind words.
I've got a lot of catching up to do.

First of all, the 11PM cone.


And Levi Cowan's latest update.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aofxua14K70

Puerto Rico got lucky, in relative terms... though I don't have damage reports yet to say how lucky.
(ETA: Tentatively, looks like some serious flooding. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla... )

The double eyewall and potential for another eyewall replacement cycle are ominous, as Cowan explains: in the longer run, that would make the windfield wider.
UPDATE: Yeah, looks like it's happening. https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905616886053908480

-----------------------------------------------------
The news from Barbuda:
http://abcnews.go.com/International/hurricane-irma-destroys-90-percent-structure...
For the most part, anything manmade is basically gone, or trashed. Fortunately most seem to have gotten into the reinforced shelter. No loss of life yet reported.confirmed, 1 death reported. At least 1 death confirmed.

ETA: Images.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

ETA:

3h ago 22:33

Michael Joseph, president of the Red Cross in Antigua and Barbuda (where it’s currently 10.30pm Wednesday), has been speaking to the BBC:

We were very fortunate in Antigua. The first report coming out of Barbuda – because we lost communication last night – the first report came from the prime minister today when he took his first trip.

He indicated about 90% of the property was either damaged or destroyed.

We had the release of the first set of images this evening and the devastation is not like we’ve ever seen before – we’re talking about the whole country … of Barbuda being significantly destroyed.

The first thing that we need to do is get our damage and needs assessment done … we’ll be going over to Barbuda tomorrow to get a better picture of what immediate, medium- and long-term needs are. From that we will start the relief effort.

From as early as tomorrow, relief aid will start pouring into Barbuda, from tarpaulins – because shelter is a major priority; water is a major priority; as well as some health concerns. These are what the focus is on within the next 24 hours.

What we are seeing in Barbuda is something we never fathomed.

Marlon Carr, who travelled with the prime minister, Gaston Browne, to survey the damage in Barbuda, told CNN it was “a miracle” that so far only one death has been reported on the island.

He called the scenes “total destruction” and warned that some people would need to be evacuated to the larger island of Antigua, especially as Hurricane Jose approaches.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

ETA:

The person killed in Barbuda as Irma hit was a two-year-old child.

Antigua and Barbuda prime minister Gaston Browne said the child died when a family tried to escape their damaged home as the hurricane swept the island.

Browne said around 60% of the island’s population of 1,400 people are now homeless.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

And aerial footage:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

And images:
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/905578399401435136
----------------------------------------------------
The Guardian's liveblog still has the best print coverage I've found. Combing through the afternoon and evening. This stood out.

French St Martin '95% destroyed'

The French part of the Caribbean island St Martin – the northern section of the island that is split with the Netherlands-administered St Maarten – has been “95% destroyed”, Daniel Gibb, a local official, has told Radio Caribbean International:

It’s an enormous catastrophe. Ninety-five percent of the island is destroyed. I’m in shock. It’s frightening.

I have sick people to evacuate, I have a population to evacuate because I don’t know where I can shelter them.

Guadeloupe prefect Eric Maire said at least six people were killed in the French part of St Martin.

The French overseas minister, Annick Girardin, was travelling to Guadeloupe with emergency teams and supplies, Agence France-Presse reported.

The French president, Emmanuel Macron, earlier said he expected Irma-related damage to St Martin and another French overseas collectivity, Saint Barthélemy (St Barts) would be “considerable”:

It’s too soon for casualty figures … I can already tell you the toll will be harsh and cruel.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

--------------------
BVI
Video from BVI
https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/905597553512734720

A photo
https://twitter.com/christoq/status/905537801357230080

And this from above the BVI
https://twitter.com/UWCIMSS/status/905530118105391104

---------------------------

Calibrated Euro probabilities, looks like up to the penultimate run. (Didn't include the results from the Sep 6 12z out this afternoon (I'll see if I can find it), and new run should be coming out in an hour or two)
https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/905527959955660805

ETA: The meteorologist who posted that also has a really good question:
https://twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/905595601529835520
"Can anyone build a strong case for why Irma will not retain cat 5 status all the way to S Florida? I'm struggling..."
I'm no meteorologist, but I read meteorologists. So, I'm struggling, too. This thing has shrugged off windshear like a honey badger, and the water temperatures in the path are rocket fuel.

Someone in the twitter thread mentions historical precedent, but fuck that.
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905631742391762944
"#Irma has now had winds of 185 mph for 33 hrs - no other TC around the globe has been this strong for so long in satellite era (since 1966)."
-------------------

And here's the cone for Jose. Looks like the Lesser Antilles aren't out of the woods yet. :-(



-----------------------------------

Latest Wunderground post:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-irma-extreme-storm-surge-threat-us-a...

ETA: The key bit.

The 12Z Wednesday runs of our top four track models—the European, GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models—were in strikingly close agreement that Irma will continue on a west-northwest track till Saturday, then arc sharply to the north-northwest. All four model runs placed the center of Irma within roughly 50 miles of Miami on Sunday morning; the latest 18Z GFS was also there. The average track error in a 4-day forecast is 175 miles, but this remarkable agreement among the models lends additional confidence to the NHC forecast track, which brings Irma over or very near southeast Florida on Sunday. All four models move Irma northward along or near Florida’s east coast, with landfall in Georgia or South Carolina on Monday.

And now I'm gonna go flip on The Weather Channel. Surely they're not still airing stupid survival shows overnight...
ETA: Nope; more like a "Mother Nature's greatest hits" show. They'll be sitting on their thumbs until 5AM. I like waterspouts and ice caves and all, but not just now, guys. That's about as relevant to the present situation as this:
http://www.bostonmagazine.com/news/blog/2015/09/23/boston-bros-lose-their-minds-...
---------------------------------------
Here's a riff on what the 12z Euro came up with yesterday afternoon (ht @lesmel for recommending the author):
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/heres-what-the-worlds-most-accurate-weat...

And here's what it came up with:

(plus ensembles here: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/images/AL11_2017090612_ECENS.png?6689378... )

No explanation necessary.
---------------------------------------

People will probably start posting the new 0Z Euro results any moment.

Meanwhile, the 2AM cone:

Winds down to 180, which is consistent with the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle.

The 5AM should incorporate the new Euro run, whatever that says.

Anguilla
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/anguilla.shtml
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/06/government-accused-of-disgraceful-...
Some photos here: http://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/850732/Hurricane-Irma-damage-pictures-Cari...

The Turks and Caicos are getting the center next, this evening. Hispaniola will be getting a glancing blow, but mudslides are still a major worry.

Aww shit. Here's one element of that new 0Z Euro. Tells you all you need to know. This is the projection for 8AM Saturday Sunday local time in Florida.


High tide is around noon, and the tides will be bigger than usual on the 9th.
http://www.tides4fishing.com/us/florida-east-coast/miami-marina
--------------
As for Barbuda:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

Evacuating that island ahead of Jose is a no-brainer. Hope they muster the resources.

ETA:
Barbuda PM blames carnage on climate change
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...
Antigua/Barbuda PM is eating crow for his initial tweets.

----------------
And more condemnation of UK efforts in Anguilla:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

And in general:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

Caught with their pants down, it seems.
--------------------------
Great IR Satellite imagery as Irma begins to pass Hispaniola:
http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_01&x=9...

(info: http://www.goes-r.gov/education/docs/ABI-bands-FS/ABI_Band_13_FS_CLEAN_LW_IR_FIN... ) -- though you'll see at left options to adjust to other bands, which have their own infosheets.)

Prompted by this exchange on the Wunderground blog:

Brian Clark • 38 minutes ago
Irma's N eyewall starting to look like it wants to eat itself in the last few frames.
http://col.st/NQ94h

VinceValence Brian Clark • 36 minutes ago
That's the least sysmetrical the eye has looked in days ...

PoppyLee VinceValence • 35 minutes ago
Another replacement?

WxGeekVA VinceValence • 34 minutes ago
Overshooting convection. She's strengthening.

VinceValence WxGeekVA • 28 minutes ago
That was my thought too, CDO getting heavier in N side as well. Might be over warmer waters.

The interaction with mountains to the S, possibly disrupting circulation is the only real obstacle left

And here's the 0Z Euro ensemble (50 runs):


(http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11)
-----------------------------------

Sint Maarten (Dutch half of the island) overflight:
https://www.ad.nl/buitenland/eerste-beelden-uit-de-lucht-van-verwoest-sint-maart...

----------------------------------
Puerto Rico A damn fine effort here to get just one more flight out:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/07/delta-flight-races-path-hurricane-irm...
Play-by-play: https://twitter.com/i/moments/905487561182908416

And here are the 5AM cones.

Irma


Jose


Katia (for completeness)


--------------------------------------------------------------
Turks and Caicos, very flat, are gonna get creamed. They're talking 15-20ft storm surges. The airport is 15ft above sea level.

--------------------------------------------------------------
And now the long-term Euro projection -- for now; it's 10 days out -- shows Jose coming back at the U.S. as well.

That's Jose on September 17, per the operational run, after it's projected to have done this:


The ensemble runs might help people avoid blood pressure spikes.
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12
But this needs to be kept an eye on.

This won't help:

"It will flood in Miami tonight. Not because of #Irma, rather because of full moon tide + sea level rise. #FloridaProblems"

(Alternative NOAA‏ @altNOAA 9h9 hours ago)

>47 margd: I could post some Miami scenarios published in recent years, but I think we're too close. If you want to read them, find them yourself.

ETA: This one says enough without getting into the details.
http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/climate_desk/2017/09/meteorolog...

-----------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905747637642698753
"The newest 0Z Calibrated ECMWF Ensembles are now indicating a 70% chance for Major Hurricane Force winds across S. Florida. That's +110mph"



A couple of recon flights on their way into Irma, at least one of them apparently out of Curacao rather than Homestead or St. Croix.
(ETA: This one. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_AF305-1711A-IRMA.png )

Results will show here:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

-----------------------------------------------------------------
Speech in UK House of Commons by Foreign Office's Alan Duncan responding to criticism of support efforts:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Barbuda resident interviews:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...

After viewing photos of boats jumbled in a marina or shoreline, I always wondered what, if anything, one could do to protect one's boat in a hurricane. Apparently, the insurance agency has analyzed the options:

Boat Hurricane Preparation: The Dos And Don'ts
Bob Adriance | June 2011

We've analyzed insurance claims over the past 20 years, and discovered the best ways to help you prepare your boat to survive a hurricane.

There's an old adage that experience is the teacher that gives you the test first, and the lesson afterward. BoatUS Marine Insurance has been collecting evidence of lessons learned — what worked and didn't work when boats were prepared for hurricanes — since the first BoatUS Hurricane Catastrophe (CAT) Field Team was organized after Hurricane Gloria in the fall of 1983...

http://www.boatus.com/magazine/2011/june/hurricaneprep.asp

Looks like new Hurricane Hunter observations won't come in time for the 8AM intermediate advisory, but here's what the AF flight shows so far: 175mpg in NW corner first pass, no problem.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905755808453021696
(The NE corner is the strong one.)

------------------------------
Puerto Rico missed the eye, but seems to have had a bad enough time of Irma anyhow:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/06/hurricane-irma-caribbean-isla...
"More than two thirds of homes in Puerto Rico are still without electricity, and 17% are without water, officials have revealed."

Sounds like a good idea for photos, papers?

Diane Dalley Wietsma | September 5 at 7:53pm ·

FLORIDA PEOPLE! Just a little hurricane prep advise.
EMPTY YOUR DISHWASHER AND PUT ANYTHING YOU WANT TO PRESERVE IN THERE. It's waterproof and secured to cabinets so it's more likely to survive a storm.

From the BBC's live link - Take photos of your family's IDs, social security numbers, medical insurance cards and driving licences in case they get lost, she says, and make sure your kids know your phone number off by heart.

>52 reading_fox: That's a good idea! I'd never think of half of this stuff...

I can't imagine having a fully packed emergency kit where I live, but might tape this list to a portable container with a few items {like spare can opener) for quick assembly if ever needed: https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1390846764394-dc08e309debe561d866b05ac84...

Some more things I've been hearing:

For insurance purposes, quick and dirty photo/video of everything in the house/premises helps. Also helps to know what areas/buildings are insured, and to make sure that all items possible are inside those areas/buildings at the time the damage occurs. (e.g. Moved from shed to garage, etc.) (Of course, if the damage is from flood and you don't have flood insurance, you're SOL).

I'll see if I can wrangle up some more.

This is interesting:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905779268327788544
Looks like IBM is running one of the two models slated for adoption to compete with the Euro model (specifically, MPAS -- the one that was not adopted). While entirely experimental, FWIW it's also showing a hit on Miami.

Here's the new 11AM cone -- complete with Hurricane Watch in S. Florida.



And Jose: NOT good news.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/905814755394379776
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/905826735979147264

>54 davidgn: With the help of some Wunderground people, I present a checklist. (h/t "rainman32")

Came across this one on FB yesterday.found a few new good ideas in there..

Great checklist for all who are preparing for the worst. Thanks April!

1. Charge any device that provides light. Laptops, tablets, cameras, video cameras, and old phones. Old cell phones can still used for dialing 911. Charge external battery back ups.
2. Wash all trash cans, big and small, and fill with water for flushing toilets. Line outdoor trash cans with trash bags, fill with water and store in the garage. Add bleach to sterilize.
3. Fill every tub and sink with water. Cover sinks with Saran Wrap to keep it from collecting dust. Fill washing machine and leave lid up to store water.
4. Fill old empty water bottles and other containers with water and keep near sinks for washing hands.
5. Fill every Tupperware with water and store in freezer. These will help keep food cold longer and serve as a back up water supply.
6. Fill drinking cups with water and cover with Saran Wrap. Store as many as possible in fridge. The rest you can store on the counter and use first before any water bottles are opened. Ice is impossible to find after the storm.
7. Reserve fridge space for storing tap water and keep the sealed water bottles on the counter.
8. Cook any meats in advance and other perishable foods. You can freeze cooked food. Hard boil eggs for snacks for first day without power.
9. Be well hydrated before the storm hits and avoid salty foods that make you dehydrated.
10. Wash all dirty clothes and bed sheets. Anything dirty will smell without the A/C, you may need the items, and with no A/C, you'll be sweating a lot. You're going to want clean sheets.
11. Toss out any expiring food, clean cat litter boxes, empty all trash cans in the house, including bathrooms. Remove anything that will cause an odor when the A/C is off. If you don't have a trash day pickup before the storm, find a dumpster.
12. Bring in any yard decor, secure anything that will fly around, secure gates, bring in hoses, potted plants, etc. Bring in patio furniture and grills.
13. Clean your environment so you have clear, easy escape routes. Even if that means temporarily moving furniture to one area.
14. Scrub all bathrooms so you are starting with a clean odor free environment. Store water filled trash cans next to each toilet for flushing.
15. Place everything you own that is important and necessary in a backpack or small file box that is easy to grab. Include your wallet with ID, phone, hand sanitizer, snacks, etc. Get plastic sleeves for important documents.
16. Make sure you have cash on hand.
17. Stock up on pet food and fill up bowls of water for pets.
18. Refill any medications. Most insurance companies allow for 2 emergency refills per year.
19. Fill your propane tanks. You can heat soup cans, boil water, make coffee, and other stuff besides just grilling meat. Get an extra, if possible.
20. Drop your A/C in advance and lower temperatures in your fridges.
21. Gather all candles, flashlights, lighters, matches, batteries, and other items and keep them accessible.
22. Clean all counters in advance. Start with a clean surface. Buy Clorox Wipes for cleaning when there is no power. Mop your floors and vacuum. If power is out for 10 days, you'll have to live in the mess you started with.
23. Pick your emergency safe place such as a closet under the stairs. Store the items you'll need in that location for the brunt of the storm. Make a hand fan for when the power is out.
24. Shower just before the storm is scheduled to hit.
25. Keep baby wipes next to each toilet. Don't flush them. It's not the time to risk clogging your toilet!
26. Run your dishwasher, don't risk having dirty smelly dishes and you need every container for water! Remember you'll need clean water for brushing your teeth, washing yourself, and cleaning your hands.
27. Put a small suitcase in your car in case you decide to evacuate. Also put at least one jug of water in your car. It will still be there if you don't evacuate! You don't need to store all water in the house. Remember to pack for pets as well.
28. Check on all family members, set up emergency back up plans, and check on elderly neighbors.
29. Remember, pets are family too. Take them with you!
30. Before the storm, unplug all electronics. There will be power surges during and after the storm.
31. Gas up your car and have a spare gas container for your generator or your car when you run out.

If you can, take a video of your house and contents....walk room to room--open cabinets/drawers and closets. This will help if you need to make a claim later. It will show proof of items and help you list all the items (help your memory, so you don't forget anything)...I highly recommend!!!

I also heard you should freeze a cup of water, place a coin on top after it is frozen...keep this in your freezer to help you gauge the temperature if the power goes out. If the coin stays on top, the food is staying frozen. If the coin falls into the water, the freezer thawed out and most food will likely need to be thrown away. This is super helpful is you have to leave and come back, as it may appear everything is still frozen, but if the coin is in the cup--you will know!!

Finally, anything that you want to try and preserve, but you can't take with you---place it in a plastic bin and put in your dishwasher, lock the door---this should make it water tight in case of any water intrusion into your home. But of course, take all the important/irreplaceable items you can!!

Stay Safe everyone!

My own suggestions for hurricane-proofing things to be left behind would include Rubbermaid Roughneck 10-18 gallon (or larger) containers filled with things to be kept dry and clean, thoroughly mummified with pallet wrap (or the best plastic wrap you can source), and placed as high as possible. Never tried it in hurricane conditions, so I can't tell you it works, but I can tell you Roughnecks sealed with clear tape have kept books dry for me briefly in an unexpected downpour.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/905817631760015360
"Here's a brief recap of some of #Irma's most notable meteorological records - valid as of 11am EDT. "
Document: https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Rec...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
And here's the latest GFS. Still a bit east of Euro, but still in agreement on Miami hit. All the models seem to be dialing in... except apparently the UK Met, which allegedly showed a hit further west on the peninsula last I heard. I'll see if I can get confirmation and/or graphics.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/905829009216430080

ETA: Yeah, here we go. Blue squares for the UK Met. Ignore the rest.
(And here's why: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/please-please-stop-sharing-spaghetti-plo... -- except in this case the UK Met is up-to-date. )


(I figure everyone here can read, particularly the notice at bottom).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NYT has a good round-up of news.
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/world/americas/hurricane-irma-caribbean.html?...

NRA contribution: ensure hurricane victims are armed...add munitions to one's emergency kit? :-(
(USVI hospital in St Thomas lost its roof...)

NRA threatens lawsuit after US Virgin Islands governor orders weapons seizure
September 05, 2017

...(USVI) Gov. Kenneth Mapp, an Independent, signed an executive order Tuesday instructing Adjutant General Deborah Howell “to take whatever actions she considers necessary” to maintain public order...Howell is “authorized and directed to seize arms, ammunition, explosives, incendiary material and any other property that may be required by the military forces for the performance of this emergency mission.”

...“People need the ability to protect themselves during times of natural disaster,” Chris W. Cox, executive director of the NRA’s Institute for Legislative Action said. “This dangerous order violates the constitutional rights of law-abiding citizens and puts their lives at risk.”

In 2005, New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin signed a similar order allowing seizure of guns, assault rifles and other weapons, ahead of a forced evacuation from those still living in areas affected by Hurricane Katrina.

The NRA filed a lawsuit after Katrina claiming New Orleans violated gun owners’ constitutional right to bear arms and left them “at the mercy of roving gangs, home invaders, and other criminals” after the hurricane.

Congress later passed the 2006 Disaster Recovery Personal Protection Act, which was meant to prohibit future confiscation of weapons during an emergency...

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2017/09/05/us-virgin-islands-governor-orders-seizure-c...

The 12Z European is coming in, and......... fuck.


West. Then up the spine.



Fuckfuckfuck.

-----------------------------------------
Another source for maps of models, including a lot of crappy ones. Of these, stick to EU and US.
https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/775-w-267-n/sea-level-pressure/20170910-150...

New Wunderground blog post:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/hurricane-watch-se-florida-ahead-powerhouse-ir...

Does not incorporate the 12Z Euro shift back west.

-------------------------------
Wunderground people started a catch-thread for hurricane prep tips and checklists.
https://disqus.com/home/channel/weatherunderground/discussion/channel-weatherund...

One new tip: "It may help to know that sending a text message requires much less cell phone mast strength/ service than it takes to connect a call."

------------------------------
And finally... you don't want to see this, but there's one hell of a litter in the nursery.


I hear at least one of the models shows at least one of these developing more than 5 days out, though I haven't seen that map.
------------------------------
One more you don't want to see. And even if it's a day old, it's still valid. You get to click for yourself.
https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=90912

And here's the 5PM, with its tick to the west for Irma



Also, a slight NE tick for Jose, which is now a Cat 3 major hurricane:



==========================
And the 18Z GFS agrees with the Euro on western shift.


==========================
Eric Blake at the NHC has had it:
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905883130296401923
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/905884689566543872

(This, per some Wunderground oldtimers, is his house in Miramar: https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=https%3A%2F%2Fpbs.twimg.com%2Fmedia%2FDJDlEKRUQA... )

And here's the general sentiment of the Wunderground oldtimers as they themselves put it:
https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.reactiongifs.com%2Fwp-content%2...
https://a.disquscdn.com/get?url=http%3A%2F%2Fimgur.com%2FxR505FA.gif&key=oQS...
https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/47a96e12e6a043eb42879a9c8b23b812b3a0ec4bb32...

===========================================
To bed for a bit, but I'll pick it up tonight.

Levi Cowan's latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gVFeGLROmA

New blog: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/triple-trouble-cat-5-irma-cat-3-jose-cat-1-kat...
(See figure 3).

And the intermediate cones for 2AM:

With Harvey, there was concern for flooding of Superfund sites.

Sierra Club notes that

...Irma's 175mph winds created an acute environmental threat to Puerto Rico given the territory's many open coal ash pits. Coal ash has been left in mounds exposed to the wind and rain and now a Hurricane. Puerto Ricans, who already suffer from a potable water shortage, could feel the ecological after-effects of this storm for decades.

...And as with Hurricane Harvey -- and everywhere we see the impacts of increasingly intense weather-related disasters -- the most vulnerable communities are always hit the hardest. Those below the poverty line -- including many immigrant communities and communities of color -- live next door to toxic facilities. Even before the storm, these communities often experienced polluted air and water...

More photos and videos, including from BVI
https://www.passagemaker.com/trawler-news/social-media-shows-irmas-wrath

The new Guardian liveblog, which I'm catching up on:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-latest-up...

=======================================

And the Euro ensembles are in. I'd call that consensus.

And now we have an 8.1 earthquake of the Pacific coast of Chiapas, Mexico, sparking a tsunami. Because fuck, of course we do.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/08/mexico-earthquake-warning-tsunami

A magnitude 8.1 earthquake has struck off the coast of Mexico leaving at least five people dead, sparking mass evacuations and prompting warnings of tsunamis across the region.

The quake occurred 165km west of the state of Chiapas just before midnight on Thursday local time, and was said to be the strongest earthquake to hit the country since 1985, according to the civil protection agency.

Three people were confirmed dead in Chiapas, and two in Tabasco state, as the Pacific tsunami warning centre said waves as high as three metres could strike the coast.

The Tabasco governor, Arturo Núñez, said the two killed were children. One died after a wall collapsed and the other was a baby who died in a children’s hospital that lost electricity.

Islands roundup.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/07/irma-destruction-island-by-island-...

Also in Irma's path, an endangered subspecies of Whitetail Deer, the Key Deer...
Such bitty animals (tallest are (ETA less than) 1 m high at shoulder) v. storm surge, never mind all the other hurricane hazards.

https://www.fws.gov/refuge/National_Key_Deer_Refuge/wildlife_and_habitat/key_dee...

It's 5AM. New cones.







Down to 155mph for now, but towards the end of its eyewall replacement cycle and going over much warmer water with less land interaction. Could very easily re-intensify, maybe in 6-12 hours if not sooner.
=========================================================
Meanwhile: Mar-a-Lago under evacuation.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article171917002.html

=========================================================
And like I was saying about that long-term:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5

Lots more prep suggestions filtering in:
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/channel-weatherunderground/hurricane_preparat...

Just got back in.
New 11AM Cones:


Irma at 150mph. Will need to check for progress of any reintensification.
Also, the elephant in the room: it's shifted west. Bad for Tampa.


Jose is now a Cat 4 at 150mph as well. Because of course it is.


And Katia still set to complement Mexico's Pacific tsunami with Bay of Campeche storm surge.

===========================
And because the Wunderground blog has now been totally overrun by know-nothings since Drudge linked to it, I'll just note that the old-timers have retreated here: https://disqus.com/home/discussion/channel-weatherunderground/dont_mess_with_tex...
===========================

Levi Cowan tweets:

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906167222002995200 - 2 hrs ago
#Irma's eyewall replacement cycle is nearly complete. The new eyewall has perfect integrity on radar, a sign of Irma's extreme strength.

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906178536402284544 - 1 hrs ago
"11am NHC track for #Irma has shifted toward SW Florida, and west coast could see worse than thought. But east coast, this remains very bad!"

And Michael Ventrice just now:
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906191751613952000
"An eyewall replacement cycle has just finished with Major Hurricane #Irma, resulting winds to reduce to 150mph. Possible restrengthening now"

The ERC has resulted in the windfield expanding significantly:
https://disqus.com/home/discussion/channel-weatherunderground/dont_mess_with_tex...

=========================================
And six days out, the Euro model tells us we can say hello to Lee. Because that's just how this season goes.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906193823956697088
=========================================
New update on Irma's meteorological records from Dr. Klotzbach:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906189440254652417
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Rec...

New discussion from Dr. Masters at the Wunderground blog:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/extremely-dangerous-cat-4-irma-headed-florida

Hope he's right:

It is uncommon for a major hurricane that suffers such a large hit to its strength and organization to make a quick recovery and re-intensify back to its former strength. I’m not expecting Irma to regain Category 5 status, particularly since part of its circulation is now over Cuba, and the core of the hurricane will come very close to the Cuban coast on Friday night and Saturday. Conditions are otherwise favorable for intensification through Sunday, with light wind shear less than 10 knots and very warm ocean waters near 30°C (86°F.) Irma is likely to be a large and very dangerous Category 3 or 4 hurricane with 115 – 140 mph winds when it makes landfall in the Florida Keys between 1 am and 7 am Sunday morning.

=======================================================
With respect to rebuilding: I hope consideration is given to 1) storm surge inundation zones, and 2) reinforced concrete shell construction. http://www.tornadoproofhouses.com/

The technology for designing and building tornado-resistant houses has been around since 1963 — half a century. It was first developed in America, not in continental North America, but instead in the American protectorate territory of the Marianas islands, primarily on the island of Guam. It utilizes the principle of "box-rigid-frame," a type of reinforced concrete shell design. This approach is described in an article titled "Disaster-Resistant Shell Houses" PDF, http://www.concreteinternational.com/pages/GetArticle.asp?PublicationID=19783 in the American Concrete Institute's Concrete International magazine, published in May 2008. The article discusses in detail the sterling performance of reinforced concrete shell houses over the past half century impacted with numerous strong typhoons and powerful earthquakes on the islands in the region. For over 50 years, without knowledge of the Guam technology, builders in North America have continued to construct homes that cost the loss of lives and property every year in disastrous tornadoes.

In 1962, Typhoon Karen roared across the island of Guam with recorded wind gusts up to 207 mph, cleaning the island of most of the conventionally constructed houses. Following an appeal to the U. S. government by the Guam governor, President John F. Kennedy directed the development of typhoon-resistant houses. The Guam Rehabilitation Act of 1963 authorizing $85,000,000 was passed by the U. S. Congress. A subsequent authorization of an additional $45,000,000 was appropriated. PDF, http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/STATUTE-77/pdf/STATUTE-77-Pg302-2.pdf

In this effort, the president enlisted the help of Henry J. Kaiser of Kaiser Hospital fame. At the time he also was CEO of Kaiser Permanente Cement Company as well as a homebuilder in Hawaii. Mr. Kaiser retained Dr. Alfred A. Yee, a world-respected structural engineer and author of a number of articles for various technical magazines, to develop the structural design for the first typhoon-resistant house. It was quickly done and thousands of these houses have been subsequently built around the island including on the military reservations. And they are still being built.

The original houses used precast concrete walls which were fabricated at the building sites and tilted into position. The roofs utilized cast-in-place reinforced concrete. All of the elements of a house, floors, walls and roofs, were intimately connected with steel reinforcing bars in order to create a box, or shell. Instead of building storm shelters inside a house as is usually done in North America, the entire house becomes a storm shelter, a practice that was not used until the Guam typhoon-resistant reinforced concrete shell house concept was developed.

The concrete shells on Guam have performed without damage for fifty years....

(http://www.tornadoproofhouses.com/lessons.php#isitpossible)

They don't look so bad, either.
"It is quite possible to make the exterior appearance of an attractive concrete house architecturally indistinguishable from that of a wood framed house. (Non-insulated home on the island of Guam)"

http://www.tornadoproofhouses.com/shells.php#archappear

Interesting that Trump enlisted (wary) Democrats to pass Harvey (and Irma?) relief:

House sends $15 billion Harvey aid package to Trump despite objections from conservatives
Mike DeBonis and Kelsey Snell | September 8, 2017

The House on Friday overwhelmingly approved a $15.25 billion disaster aid package that also extended government funding and the federal borrowing limit until Dec. 8, moments after Republicans vented their disappointment to two top White House officials over the deal struck this week by President Trump.

The measure passed 316-90; every member opposed was a Republican...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/powerpost/house-set-to-vote-today-on-harvey-aid-p...

2PM NHC advisory on Irma shows reintensification to 155mph.

I'm repeating the picture of Irma from >71 davidgn: better to compare:

>75 bnielsen: Thanks. (ETA: Note that they don't actually move the cone on the intermediate advisories. (Usually? Always? I'm not sure, but at least generally that's the case. And I can't find a track change here. But as landfall approaches, they get kind of frantic with the updates in general.)
Next cone move will probably be at 5PM (and they often release the cone a few minutes after the advisory).
(ETA: Also, AST and EDT are the same time. Because the Eastern time zone is on daylight savings time -- hence EDT, not EST)
====================================
12Z Euro coming in. Even further west.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/906216127923195905

Good news for Miami (tentatively); bad news for the west coast. Glad my family members got out of Venice; they're hunkering down inland north of Orlando in a recently-built hotel, near a nursing home where they had an in-law transferred. I count that a success.

XKCD explains ensemble models.
https://xkcd.com/1885/


And here are the latest ensembles for Irma:

http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL11
Euro (ECMWF):

(Still not available for 12Z, but I'll add 12Z when it comes)
ETA: Here it is.
Hotlinked from twimg.com; hope they don't mind.
h/t Ryan Maue on that: " Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 8m8 minutes ago

No longer any spread or uncertainty about landfall of Hurricane #Irma ... this is happening for sure, unfortunately."
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906240423810785281

American (GFS):

>76 davidgn: West move is bad for Keys, because they would catch strongest winds on NE side of Irma?
Wonder if Overseas Highway can survive? It surely will be first highway to close.

Google working with state to advise on road closures as quickly as possible:
https://www.theverge.com/2017/9/7/16266674/hurricane-irma-google-maps-real-time-...

(Those poor little deer...)

>78 margd:. Correct. And they already mandatory-evacuated the entire string. But at this rate, I think the Keys will be accessible by boat for some time to come.
And yes, the deer are screwed. :-(
Somebody said it's a more dignified way for a species to go than many alternatives.
====================================================
Meanwhile: look at this. Mine is not a trained eye, but I don't like the looks of this. The visible outflow just expanded explosively.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/html5-wv-long.html

Predicted inundation (map):

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/215356.shtml?inundation#conte...

New update from Levi Cowan:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xt9snUMP7ks

And here's the latest Guardian liveblog.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/07/hurricane-irma-live-latest-up...

And here come the 5PM cones.

Irma
2PM:

Vs. 5PM (pending) (still pending at 5:08) (still AWOL at 5:15. hmm...)... FINALLY.

Still further west.
==============================================================================

Jose

Now a strong Cat 4 and trending back towards Barbuda et al.
==============================================================================
Katia

==============================================================================
John Morales (apparently one of the most respected local TV meteorologists in Miami) calling for Cat 5 again.
https://twitter.com/AWISWeather/status/906266416424386561

80 contd. The worst area for inundation, se FL, boasts Superfund sites and Turkey Pt nuke...
Maps at

What Lies In Irma’s Path
Rachael Dottle, Ritchie King and Ella Koeze | Sep. 8, 2017

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-lies-in-irmas-path/

As for Turkey Point: anyone concerned can monitor enenews.com. If there's an issue, you're guaranteed to hear about it there. (The problem is, if there's no issue, you're also guaranteed to get an impression that there is one. So be careful. They cite MSM sources, but they live to hype nuclear threats and the commenters are just plain rabid.) Armed with that information, see:
http://enenews.com/worst-hurricane-ever-headed-straight-for-multiple-us-nuclear-...

=================================================
On models, and the performance of GFS versus ECMWF (which has been kicking ass, as usual).
https://arstechnica.com/science/2017/09/us-forecast-models-have-been-pretty-terr...

=================================================
Gonna nap.
I'll try to post the 11PM cones by midnight or so, but no guarantees.

The latest Euro suggests Tampa is gonna get it but good. Let me get some coffee in and I'll post cones. I should have set a goddamn alarm.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906399120318922752

But go here for the full Irma cone-change animation.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/IRMA_graphics.php?product=5day_cone_with_li...

The last two Wunderground blogs:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-top-end-cat-4-storm-now-less-two-days-flo...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/cat-5-irma-churns-along-north-cuba-coast

IRMA:
11PM Cone

5AM Cone


Cuba's getting it bad. The question is to what degree this will weaken Irma, and how much it recovers before hitting Florida. So far, Irma's been shrugging this off, and NHC's Avila has specifically said not to expect weakening from Cuba (as Dr. Masters acknowledges in his recent blog, though apparently grudgingly). Too much jet-fuel warm water for Irma to care very much. The slowdown in movement plus longer track over more warm water before FL landfall could easily give us a Cat 5 at landfall.

Here's Cantore (who, as the joke runs, is a one-man hurricane shield: he always touches down someplace where hurricanes don't make landfall. He was in Miami Beach last I knew, so I guess his streak is still on.)
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/906412155041349632
===============================================================================

JOSE:
5AM Cone

Barbuda is evacuated. Windfield is not huge, so St Barts/St Martin/Anguilla may escape the worst of it with some luck.

New Guardian liveblog is here: https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/09/hurricane-irma-florida-evacua...

Good news: Cuba seems to have taken a toll on Irma after all... for the time being.
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/906477206452523009
(but that's NW and SE quadrants; recon for NE quad still to come)
The 8AM intermediate advisory pegs Irma at 130mph. Restrengthening anticipated, particularly considering this: https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906483638350598144
ETA: And this. https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DJSACVZU8AEP-nT.jpg:large

(Of course, vice-versa is true as well...)

How to Help the Victims of Hurricane Irma
JACEY FORTIN | SEPT. 8, 2017

...For those who find themselves near damaged communities and want to assist in person, the National Voluntary Organizations Active in Disaster, an association of disaster relief organizations, encourages people not to “self-deploy.” Instead, willing volunteers in Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands or Florida can register to be contacted by relief workers by signing up on the association’s website. (https://www.nvoad.org/current-disasters/hurricane-irma-information/)

...GlobalGiving’s Irma Relief Fund is accepting donations here. (https://www.globalgiving.org/projects/hurricane-irma-relief-fund/) It vets the local organizations it helps fund and is well-regarded by charity watchdogs. (GlobalGiving prioritizes local organizations over the long term, but often steers money toward larger entities like Save the Children or the International Medical Corps during the early days of disaster response.)

...You can also donate directly to larger organizations like Unicef, which will pay special attention to school-age children; Oxfam America, which is preparing for Hurricane Jose as it works on Irma recovery; and the American Red Cross, which has deployed disaster responders and delivered donated blood to hard-hit areas. (A series of reports by ProPublica and NPR called attention to a lack of financial transparency at the Red Cross and accused the organization of serious blunders in its responses to past disasters.)

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/us/hurricane-irma-help-donate.html

_____________________________________________

Charity Navigator rates charities (financial, transparency etc.) by disaster, initiative: Harvey, Irma, Mud Slides in Sierra Leone, etc.

https://www.charitynavigator.org/index.cfm

ETA__________________________________________

Mexico sent assistance to US for Katrina and Harvey, but the US apparently hasn't done so for Mexico ?Central American earthquake. Lots on US plate (wildfires, hurricanes), but we couldn't spare a sniffer dog--or a sympathetic tweet--apparently:

Will the U.S. help after Mexico's most powerful earthquake in a century?
Colin Daileda | Sept 8, 2017

...State Department spokesperson wrote in an email that Mexico hasn't requested aid following the earthquake, but that the U.S. government is "in close contact with Mexican authorities as we monitor the situation."

"In addition to Mexico, we are monitoring the situation in Guatemala and El Salvador closely regarding earthquake and tsunami-related impacts," the spokesperson wrote.

Trump has so far not publicly spoken about potential aid to Mexico, and, yes, that means no tweets, either.

President of Mexico Enrique Peña Nieto, however, tweeted his thanks to friendly nations and leaders for their solidarity and support...

http://mashable.com/2017/09/08/texas-mexico-earthquake-assistance-aid-hurricane/...

____________________________________________

Mexico Earthquake, Strongest in a Century, Kills Dozens
PAULINA VILLEGAS, ELISABETH MALKIN and KIRK SEMPLE |SEPT. 8, 2017

JUCHITÁN DE ZARAGOZA, Mexico — Thousands of homes in this city were severely damaged. Half of the 19th-century city hall, with its 30 arches, collapsed. The main hospital here was so devastated that staff members evacuated patients to an empty lot and worked by the light of their cellphones.

...Over all, the earthquake — the most powerful to hit the country in a century — killed at least 61 people in Mexico, all of them in the southern part of the country that was closer to the quake’s epicenter off the Pacific Coast.

The earthquake, which had a magnitude of 8.2 and struck shortly before midnight on Thursday, was felt by tens of millions of people in Mexico and in Guatemala, where at least one person died as well.

President Enrique Peña Nieto flew to the region on Friday afternoon to assess the damage. And several leaders in Latin America and elsewhere offered assistance to Mexico, including the presidents of Colombia, Chile, Ecuador, Bolivia, Venezuela and Spain.

...Reports of damage elsewhere in the region continued to emerge throughout the afternoon. In Union Hidalgo, just to the east of Juchitán, the mayor reported that about 500 houses had been destroyed.

...“We are assessing the damage, which will probably take hours, if not days,” President Peña Nieto said in televised comments to the nation two hours after the quake.

Throughout the day Mexicans lined up at emergency collection centers around the country to donate food, water and other supplies for delivery to the earthquake victims.

...After the 1985 disaster, construction codes were reviewed and stiffened. Today, Mexico’s construction laws are considered as strict as those in the United States or Japan.

...In Guatemala, the military was out Friday morning assessing the damage, found mainly in the western part of the country.

In Huehuetenango, bricks and glass were strewn on the ground as walls in the city collapsed. Quetzaltenango, Guatemala’s second-largest city, which was beginning to recover from a tremor in June, had more damage to its historic center.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/world/americas/mexico-earthquake.html

>89 margd: Florida governor just on TWC, points here for those who want to help hands-on: https://www.volunteerflorida.org/irma/

And over in the Blue Shed (a reference to the only building in Rockport, TX that seems to have survived Harvey intact... Blue Sheds for everyone!), someone posted the WaPo piece I shared way back in the Harvey thread regarding Tampa. Half of those people are in the cone, and they're sharing it, so...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/health/environment/tampa-bay-climat...
No further comment.
ETA: Except maybe this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tx4u9RQ6Hh4
And while it's not currently forecast, TWC is openly mentioning on-air the possibility that this goes just a bit further west, putting Tampa in the NE eyewall -- worst-case.

The 12Z Euro should be crunching. Everyone wants to see what it spits out around 2PM.

Pure Florida.
People like Ryon are going to shoot at Hurricane Irma
http://www.bbc.co.uk/newsbeat/article/41201494/people-like-ryon-are-going-to-sho...

....More than 43,000 people have signed up to shoot at Hurricane Irma.
...
The comments on Ryon's post suggest not everyone is really going to load up on Sunday morning in the Florida Keys.

"Isn't this just going to make the weather madder?" asks one.

"Are liberals allowed to throw pillows? (asking for a friend)" says another.

Someone even posted a picture of their husky dog with a gun in a holster.

New video update from Levi Cowan.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/09/09/saturday-morning-irma-raking-cub...

The 11AM cones are out:

IRMA 5AM:

versus IRMA 11AM:


Now a strong Cat 3, but likely set to re-intensify coming off Cuba. Track/cone very slightly tweaked. The 5PM will incorporate the new Euro.
The storm surge forecast for SW Florida has been significantly raised, however.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/095407.shtml?inundation#conte...
===============================================================================

JOSE 5AM:


vs. JOSE 11AM


Guarded good news for the islands.

New Klotzabach irma records update:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Rec...

And Maue:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906547223558856704
This. 100 times this. Based on performance so far, all US models and the human NHC forecasts have had clocks cleaned by the ECMWF Euro model.
https://twitter.com/AlgabaDel/status/906549096479109121

NHC updates now hourly:
https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/906548837568978946
As always, they live here:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Latest: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/091558.shtml

New Dr. Masters blog
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-pounding-cuba-cat-3-likely-be-cat-3-or-4-...

The models have not budged much in their forecasts Saturday morning, and they continue to predict a turn for Irma more to the northwest on Saturday afternoon, followed by a turn to the north-northwest. As of 11:45 am EDT Saturday, the latest available runs (0Z or 6Z or 12Z) of our top models for tracking hurricanes—the European, GFS, HWRF, HMON, and UKMET—had Irma re-intensifying after leaving Cuba, making landfall in the Middle or Lower Florida Keys on Sunday morning near 8 am, then turning north-northwest and making a second landfall on the west coast of Florida between Marco Island and Sarasota between 6 pm – 10 pm Sunday.

The timing and location of this second landfall is uncertain, since Irma will be traveling nearly parallel to the coast. A slight change in the storm’s track could make a 100-mile difference in where landfall occurs. Several of our most reliable models have Irma passing directly over Tampa Bay between 2 am – 4 am Monday. Depending upon how far to the south Irma makes landfall before arriving in Tampa, passage over land should reduce Irma’s top winds by 15 – 35 mph before the hurricane arrives. Due to the configuration of the coast and the expected north-northwest track of Irma, the hurricane should not be able to push a large storm surge into Tampa Bay while it is approaching, since the winds will be blowing offshore. Only after the storm passes and the winds reverse to blow onshore will Tampa Bay see a storm surge, and NHC is warning of a possible 3 – 5’ inundation above ground level. The highest storm surge from Irma is likely to be in the Naples area, where NHC is warning of a 8 – 12’ storm surge. High tide at Naples is at 3 am and 4 pm on Sunday, and low tide is at 9:30 am and 9:30 pm. The difference between low tide and high tide is about 2.5 feet, so Irma will drive a significantly lower storm tide to the coast if it hits at low tide.

Now, will Jose loop the loop (as suggested by one of the earlier long-range scenarios you posted), or fade away?

This is a link to the NOAH weather station in Key West Fla. The big bands have just reached there and extend to Everglades City on Fla mainland.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=KYWF1

>96 Marissa_Doyle: Hard to say where it ends up. Latest available ensembles for Jose: http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12

I'll dig up the operational runs of the models as well...

GFS: *gulp*
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frz... (edited to match time for ECMWF below).
(from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...


ECMWF:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090900/ecmwf_z500_mslp...
(from https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p... )


Both operative model runs (and majority of ensembles) agree it's gonna loop the loop. The question is how close that takes it to the coast, and where. But there's definitely more nail-biting in the pipeline.

That's as far out as the ECMWF goes, but the GFS shows it winds up here 12 hours later:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090912/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frz...


The good news:
1) Frankly? The fact that it's the GFS, not ECMWF showing landfall at this point is good news;
2) It's at 10 days, still very likely to go out to sea.
3) Cold wake from Irma should weaken it, as should cooler North Atlantic.

I'll post the corresponding 9/19/2017 12Z for the ECMWF below when it comes out this afternoon.

Seems the staff of the Hemingway house on Key West is determined to go down with the ship.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/09/hurricane-irma-staff-ernest-hemingway...

New Euro for Irma landfall:
"No change to the ECMWF forecast at 12z. Intensifying Hurricane #Irma right up to landfall. 928 mb suggests dangerous high-end Cat 4."
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906579174139338752 (ETA: Corrected link)

(Hot-linked that image from twimg.com. If it dies and someone notices, mention it and I'll replace it.)

And already starting to re-intensify.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/906577200224374784

You can't fix stupid. Key West still filled with looky-loos
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/906584536234020867
https://twitter.com/Sean_Breslin/status/906581491429371906

>101 davidgn: I was just now checking the Southernmost Point webcam (that second link is about a snapshot of it) to see the conditions and saw a police car drive up and a cop got out. "That's encouraging," I thought to myself, "the law is going to drive those danger-seeking tourists away and enforce the mandatory evac order." Then the cop pulled out his cell phone and took a selfie as waves crashed a dozen feet in the air...

> 101

People too stupid to live. Well, yeah. Most of these jerk-offs are trump-suckers, foxx fans and Limbaugh listeners. They will not be missed.

As to Limbaugh someone needs to get on the horn to Sarah Palin, who probably can spare the time now, to ask her to call up Limbaugh and ask him "So, how's that hoaxy-conspiracy thing working for ya?"

As promised, here's the EMCWF analogue of the GFS 10-day projection at the bottom of >98 davidgn: (which also has the links where these maps can be found).
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090912/ecmwf_z500_mslp...


Further east, and not buried in the bowels of NYC. Still, don't breathe any easier, particularly not until you see how Jose got there. Here's what that ECMWF model now projects for 9 days out:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2017090912/ecmwf_z500_mslp...


Far too early for any definite forecast, but the eastern seaboard should consider this fair early warning that something unpleasant might be coming. 945mb suggests a strong Cat 3.

>104 davidgn: Which hurricane is that, I'm ashamed to ask--Irma or Jose?
ETA: Never mind--just saw "Jose".
Can we talk about climate change yet, Scott Pruitt?

EPA's Scott Pruitt Doesn't Want to Talk About Climate Change During Hurricane Irma
By Meghan Bartels On 9/8/17
http://www.newsweek.com/epa-scott-pruit-no-talk-climate-change-hurricane-irma-66...

ETA
Miami’s mayor on Hurricane Irma: ‘If this isn’t climate change, I don’t know what is’
David Smiley | September 08, 2017
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172080587.html

>105 margd: That's Jose, following its (projected) loop-de-loop. Beginning of week after next. Sorry I wasn't clear.

Yikes. Yeah, not going to stop watching Jose. Thank you for those links.

>107 Marissa_Doyle: You bet.

Also fixed the link for that tweet about the latest Euro run's Irma landfall projection in >100 davidgn:, and hot-linked the full-size image in.

>102 cesbooks: People are still there. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X7ld45pUueQ
(And 18,000 people watching the camera)

They're probably stuck there at this point. Can only hope they have the sense to get to the high school to try and ride it out. That's the only designated refuge of last resort. (Then again, if they had any sense...)

Surf picking up at Marathon in the middle of the Keys:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gaErEed7UPI

For Bambi-huggers (even us hunters), good to know that Key Deer subspecies of whitetails may live again! Testes and ovaries from roadkill etc. have been gathered by USFWS for storage, frozen, by the South-East Zoo Alliance for Reproduction and Conservation (SEZARC). If enough gametes, surrogate whitetails could be recruited for in vitro fertilization attempt to resurrect the Key Deer subspecies. I only hope that, located as they are near Jacksonville, SEZARC freezers have backup power! Also, that their island homes survive...

Key Deer Refuge Preserving Organs from Dead Deer

As a backup plan to prevent species extinction, a federal agency has started harvesting reproductive organs from dead Key deer. The animals, only found in the Lower Keys, suffered a heavy blow to their population over the last few months from the flesh-eating New World screwworm.

While the screwworm eradication effort has prompted the release of millions of combative sterile flies and Key deer deaths due to the parasite have halted as of late, federal wildlife managers are taking no chances when it comes to survival of the protected species.

The Big Pine Key-based National Key Deer Refuge has been sending reproductive organs it gathers from recently dead Key deer found still intact to a partnering non-profit. This includes deaths from screwworm as well as vehicular accidents, which refuge officials say are on the rise.

Known as the South-East Zoo Alliance for Reproduction and Conservation, the organization collects and preserves genetic material from endangered animals as well as performs assisted reproductive techniques. It’s based in Yulee, Fla.

For collection and preservation, when it comes to Key deer, that includes storing testes and ovaries in liquid nitrogen. For reproduction, that could include, if needed, artificial insemination with a female Key deer or in vitro fertilization with a surrogate species for population sustainability...

http://floridakeystreasures.com/2016/12/08/key-deer-refuge-preserving-organs-fro...

ETA_______________________________________

Multi-Species Recovery Plan for South Florida: Key Deer.
USFWS. 22 p.
https://www.fws.gov/verobeach/MSRPPDFs/KeyDeer.pdf

>110 margd: At least some good news. Thank you for that information. I wonder how the Florida panthers will fare.

>111 Taphophile13: I wonder how the Florida panthers will fare.

Apparently, you can adopt a Florida Panther sperm: donors even receive a certificate! SEZARC says, "Just like the male animals in our program, we encourage you to give, and give often!" :-) http://www.sezarc.org/adopt

No such adopt-a program for Key Deer gametes, unfortunately. I came across an expired group-fund campaign for them, but it had collected only $20... Maybe there will be more interest after the deluge...

Shit. 935mb. Dropping fast.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/recon_NOAA2-2711A-IRMA.png

Here's Key West radar.
http://www.aprsfl.net/radar/index.php?site=KBYX

ETA: And the latest advisory says 933mb.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/DDHHMM.shtml

ETA: Key West radar:
https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states-regional/fl/key-west

I'll post the cones when they come in.

=======================
Table of all historical storms landfalling at 933mb or lower:
https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/906624429030989824

IRMA:



JOSE:

Hope Irma just fills up the Everglades, letting the gators and nonnative pythons reach an equilibrium- without spreading the disgusting screwflies.

The east coast of Fla. may be missing the worst but they and the rest of Fla. are going to have gators all over the place instead of just the drainage canals.

>112 margd: Well that's cool. Those guys need all the help they can get; only a couple hundred left.

>115 DugsBooks: It would be very nice if something took out the nonnative pythons but I doubt that will happen. As I recall another hurricane, Andrew perhaps, was responsible for the release of lion fish from local aquariums into the Atlantic. Florida has a long history of invasive species. I remember there were a lot of complaints after nurseries introduced the melaleuca tree from Australia.

Turkey Pt shut down only one of two nukes...

Reminds me of Nine Mile Pt/Fitzgerald nukes on L Ontario that successfully appealed to NRC to not initiate first level emergency procedure triggered by 100 year flood: now they don't need to react as long as employees can access parking lot! (Under previous owner at least, aging Fitzgerald (Fukushima design) was very scary!) Hope no problems as a result of Irma, but NRC needs to review response to flooding by nation's nukes!

"Florida Power and Light says early Saturday "we conservatively and safely shut down" one of two nuclear reactors at Turkey Point."

Greg Allen‏Verified account @gallennpr 1h1 hour ago

And this is how the zoos prepare for a hurricane:

http://www.npr.org/2017/09/07/548981618/flamingos-in-the-men-s-room-how-zoos-and...

Will Irma Finally Change the Way We Talk About Climate?
http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2017/09/will-irma-finally-change-the-way-we...

>119 davidgn: Maybe. But we need to think abstractly:

http://www.slate.com/articles/health_and_science/science/2017/09/what_climate_ch...

(Google Maps, walkie-talkie app Zello, Twitter, Facebook assist with evacuation, family & friend alerts, dispatcher info)
Kaya Yurieff | September 8, 2017

... Earlier this year, the tech giant (Google) introduced SOS Alerts, a new tool in Google Maps and Search that helps users obtain information during an emergency. (http://google.org/crisismap/2017-irma shows shelters, road closures, gas stations & fuel status, precipitation)

On mobile Google Maps, users will see an icon on the map with a clickable card that shows updates about the situation, such as relevant phone numbers and websites. The map will also show road closures and traffic.

For Android users, Google also compiled 20 useful apps for Hurricane Irma on the homepage of its app store Google Play, such as breaking news and weather, maps and travel assistance, and the FEMA and Red Cross Hurricane apps.

Other apps in addition to Google Maps are also being used during emergencies.

Facebook (FB, Tech30) has tools to assist people during natural disasters or other crises, such as Safety Check, which allows users to quickly alert friends and family that they're safe. And Twitter (TWTR, Tech30) users can sign up to receive alerts and text messages from specific organizations, like the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), during a disaster situation.

During Harvey, users also turned to these social media platforms to seek help, such as tweeting their address to officials.

Those stranded by Harvey also used a walkie-talkie app called Zello. Users uploaded messages asking for help and volunteers could speak to them directly and notify them that help was coming. ( https://www.tomsguide.com/us/apps,news-25805.html )

http://money.cnn.com/2017/09/08/technology/google-maps-hurricane-irma/index.html

Zello______________________________________

Zello tops US app store as the walkie-talkie for hurricane volunteers
Mike Butcher | Sept 10, 2017
https://techcrunch.com/2017/09/10/zello-tops-us-app-store-as-the-walkie-talkie-f...

So, here's the 5/8AM cone:
Landfall about now in the Keys.

The Weather Channel livestream: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RyzJF59t2WE

Levi Cowan's latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fc7DN1wFCHM

Key West Radar again: https://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/fl/key-west/byx/?region...

And the blogs:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-reorganizes-en-route-devastating-florida-...
-- With important point on Tampa (but read the whole thing):

Tampa’s hurricane history: only two major hurricanes since 1848

Tampa Bay doesn't get hit very often by hurricanes. This is because the city faces the ocean to the west, and the prevailing east-to-west trade winds at that latitude make it uncommon for a storm to make a direct hit on the west coast of Florida from the ocean. This is fortunate, since the large expanse of shallow continental shelf waters offshore from Tampa Bay (less than 300 feet deep out to 90 miles offshore) is conducive for allowing large storm surges to build. Tampa Bay is most vulnerable to large storm surges from storms approaching from the southwest or west and passing just north of the city, since the westerly winds in the hurricane's eyewall will force a massive storm surge directly into the bay. Tampa Bay is much less vulnerable to large storm surges from a storm approaching from the south, like Irma, since the hurricane's winds will be blowing offshore until the eye of the storm passes to the north. At that time, the winds will reverse and bring a storm surge into Tampa Bay.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-slams-keys-floridas-southwest-coast-risk-...

Finally, here's Jose. NHC forecast track now includes the full loop-de-loop.



I'll get the latest long-range models next.

All right. Here's the long-term Euro for Jose.

Looking much better at 9 days:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...
.

Unfortunately, this is where the Euro now has it at 10 days:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...


Still way, way out there. Nonetheless, heads up @timspalding .

ETA:
And here are the ensembles.
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12

ETA:
Ryan Maue posted the full operational run Euro track for Jose:
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906775870194544641

More updates than I can shake a stick at on the Guardian liveblog.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/09/hurricane-irma-florida-evacua...

Key West lucked out in relative terms. NE eyewall around Marathon Key further east.
ETA: Official landfall at Cudjoe Key.

News from Cuba.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/sep/10/havana-flooded-and-5000-tourists-e...

Videos from the storm chasers and assorted loons still in the Keys: https://twitter.com/i/moments/906476411288014848

Crane down on top of highrise in downtown Miami (already): https://twitter.com/nesumosa/status/906880723814055936

ETA: Better photo: https://twitter.com/GideonApe/status/906885388698038273

Encouraging numbers out of the Keys. Quite low windspeeds for a Cat 4 per Dr. Masters.
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-slams-keys-floridas-southwest-coast-risk-...

The disorganization from contact with Cuba and the shear from the short wave coming at the thing from the west (see Levi Cowan video) seems to have weakened the windspeeds significantly. Pressure still down, though, and still some time for recovery before mainland landfall.
East of forecast track (meaning earlier landfall), but now wobbling west -- so who knows.

Still Cat 4 130mph per NHC advisory just out. Pressure up slightly to 933mb.
New cone in a sec.

11AM Cone.


And Jose's:

New met records roundup for Irma:
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Rec...

Better photo from the crane in Miami. Looks like it took out a good chunk of the top floor of that high-rise.
https://www.librarything.com/topic/268795#6172998

From inside the Florida Keys: ‘Everything is under water. I mean everything’
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172401982.html

Meanwhile, in Miami (not really -- posted 16 hours ago and probably anachronistic -- but hey).
https://www.facebook.com/groups/1822790977746257/permalink/1838155972876424/ (lqarl)

News 4 Jacksonville got a hold of an incredible pic.
https://twitter.com/wjxt4/status/906920240306683904
"An osprey caught a fish in the middle of the road. #Irma"

New Guardian liveblog. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-millions-brace...

ETA: And this puts into perspective the degree to which Miami lucked out by avoiding a direct hit.
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/906926221744906242
"#StormSurge wasn't modeled to be this high along the #Miami River. Not even an evacuation zone! Up to 3 ft and rising #Irma #HurricaineIrma"
https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/906920269402558464
"Water still rising in downtown Miami along Brickell Avenue. Storm surge is intense. Neck deep in areas. @wsvn #HurrcaneIrma"

ETA: Flamingos being evacuated to safer spot at Busch Gardens. https://twitter.com/BN9/status/906925600044146689

ETA: And here's Tampa Bay three hours ago. It'll be like this tonight as well -- except the other way around.
https://twitter.com/jillianmele/status/906894255381250049

ETA: Photos from Havana. https://twitter.com/afpfr/status/906903345243332608

2PM intermediate advisory: Irma downgraded to Cat 3. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/101757.shtml
120 mph, 936mb. Florida owes Cuba a lot on this one.

Monroe County (the Keys) "closed", US1 underwater. https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-millions-brace...

Hurricanes Blow Away Climate Change Denial
The startling landfall of two giant hurricanes – feasting on especially warm water off Texas and Florida – crashes into the climate change denialism that has been politically popular on the Right, notes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.
https://consortiumnews.com/2017/09/10/hurricanes-blow-away-climate-change-denial...

This is apparently what the cranes in Miami are supposed to do (or at least have the freedom to do, given the wind). But would that make me feel any better if I were anywhere near something like this (especially after what happened this morning)? I doubt it. https://twitter.com/WesCallisonTNN/status/906942856081711104
Apparently the footage on this particular one is from Hong Kong. Which is bad. I got it from Eric Fisher's retweet (Chief Meteorologist CBS 4 Boston), but seems he's already pulled it. https://twitter.com/ericfisher?lang=en


(Sorry, Eric.)
==================================================================
ETA: This photo and footage from Miami, on the other hand, look entirely legit. Holy crap.
https://twitter.com/RyanAFournier/status/906940053942915072
https://twitter.com/RyanAFournier/status/906948284215939072

They're gonna have to redraw all the storm surge maps in Miami-Dade -- and supposedly they just did that already.

Miami doesn't look too bad, especially if that water is as shallow as I think. All that spray is nothing. A 30kph wind can look like that with water on the sidewalk.

>137 RickHarsch: I guess it depends on where you measured, but it was pretty damn deep in spots. Brickell Ave. got it bad. (from >133 davidgn:)
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/906926221744906242
https://twitter.com/BrianEntin/status/906920269402558464
They're still saying about 3 feet deep in Brickell, live on TWC. Brickell is near the water, though.

Another from Kimberlain:
https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/906956289334501376

But I see your point that the Biscayne Bay video looks worse than it probably is.

Quite the radar image.
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906962022625153025
Landfall at Marco Island.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCUAT1+shtml/101941.shtml?

Down to 115MPH, 940mb -- low-end Cat 3

True enough. Strange that Miami may have still ended up getting the worst of it.

Marco Island video, about 30 minutes ago: https://twitter.com/bohemianceliac/status/906959228140707840

And this gauge is from about 45 minutes ago @ Naples, just north. Whipsaw well in progress by now.
https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/906957228804112384
ETA: Hmm. This is the live reading. Did the gauge break? https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725110
ETA: Juxtaposed picture. https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/906965108575948805

Here's surge at Miami ~15 minutes ago.
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/906964892376322049

NE Florida/SE Georgia getting worse than many expected, too.
https://twitter.com/crankywxguy/status/906965405511565312

Case in point: St. Augustine.
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/906969544039727105
Cantore is impressed.

Also saw something from SC... let me find it.
https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/906966940958294022
Yeah, that was from Cantore, too. Charleston.

==============================================
More flooding footage in Miami, from inside a store:
https://twitter.com/WFLAJosh/status/906964645365329921
Nice sandbag job.

Livestream from Naples, in eyewall now. https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906970433320308738
(click through; or just go here: https://twitter.com/GregNordstrom/status/906955224774053888 )

And... holy crap. Tornado Fucking Warning around Melbourne/Port St. Lucie! Good luck counting 'em!
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906972912619593729

More on the gauge at Naples. https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/906975237165785088
Still bouncing around, but the final whipsaw should begin any moment.

And here's a shot from inside the eye at Marco Island.
https://twitter.com/MarcoIslandPD/status/906971383967645696

Another view from Naples
https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/906975136108212224

Or for Naples, here's a new bootleg Weather Channel stream. Watch that.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YCmCREllnM

Mike Ventrice Bettes live from there now. https://twitter.com/MJVentrice https://twitter.com/mikebettes
(Too many Mikes at TWC!)

Yeah... that Naples gauge? I think it's working. https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725110
cf. https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/906982134216261638
https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/906982511514980353
ETA https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906984305737523201
ETA https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906987715840933890

Wind gust forecasts for the west coast are being increased. Which makes sense reading the following.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906981814719406081
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906981811607175168
https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/906982303070597120

TWC folks are speculating this may be revised to a Cat 4 at landfall upon review. Gusts on west coast are well into that territory. No Hurricane Hunters measuring. And gusts over 100MPH as far as Miami.

============================================
Officially downgraded to Cat 2, latest advisory.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT1+shtml/102053.shtml?
Discussion
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT1+shtml/102054.shtml?

Cones coming.

5PM CONES:

Irma


Jose


============================================================================
Also, some good news: eastward trend continues on the Euro model for Jose; now shows it going out to sea, maybe brushing eastern Nova Scotia. Hope this trend holds.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...

But keep in mind: the GFS now shows this.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...
So don't stop watching.

Latest ensembles for Jose:
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12

Backside surge for Naples building apace.
https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/906993674277486592
ETA: https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/907011237992652800

And the speculation is Bettes might have gotten hit by a small tornado at one point there in Naples.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/906993221405958146

Now they've got Cantore in Ft. Meyers. Stream is still up for now. Eyewall moving in on him.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YCmCREllnM

And the tornadoes around Melbourne still going totally nuts:
https://twitter.com/antmasiello/status/906997389394935808

"Florida Power & Light official predicts "wholesale rebuild" of electrical grid on FL coast, possibly "longest restoration...in US history""
https://twitter.com/ABC/status/906994986155073536

An important thread on societal aspects:
https://twitter.com/JooBilly/status/906990361356226560
Recommends Crisis Cities

MSNBC managed to get a reporter into the upper Keys, just south of Key Largo. Household appliances scattered everywhere, if that says anything. Government officials are working "tree by tree" to push further south down US1 and get the airport open in Marathon, which would be ground zero. Almost no comms from the southern Keys. Bridges may or may not have made it at this point -- still not clear.

========================
Trending more inland than projected -- also a stroke of luck. Should weaken faster.
========================
Eric Fisher on Jose: need to wait for Irma to clear before we'll be able to get any good picture of its track.
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/907005857887637504
========================
Cantore in Ft. Myers is in the eye.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YCmCREllnM
========================
How's everybody doing?

>135 davidgn:

Global Warming and Hurricanes: An Overview of Current Research Results
https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

>149 cpg: Thanks for that link, and it's important to keep the more complex picture in mind. At the same time, from a pragmatic standpoint, I think Pillar has a very good point about this being a teaching opportunity vis-a-vis the difficult-to-teach.

ETA: See also these:
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2017/08/hurricanes-harvey-climate-ch...
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2017/08/07/climate/document-Draft-of-the-Cli...
===========================================================
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907013393827205121
Situation in the Keys described as "humanitarian crisis"

More early reporting from the Keys:
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907027121314385920

And a photo from Marco Island:
https://twitter.com/6abcadamjoseph/status/907027342706561024

===========================
More from Keys
http://nypost.com/2017/09/10/hurricane-evacuee-dies-in-keys-shelter/
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/national/article172463131.html
http://www.sun-sentinel.com/news/weather/hurricane/fl-reg-hurricane-irma-maratho...
http://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article172494996.html
http://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article172452857.html

The 18Z GFS has Jose enjoying the Maine coast 9 days out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...
But again, too early to say.
I'll try to post the Euro in the morning. Unlike the GFS, it comes out only every 12 hours.

>152 davidgn: One of those runs takes it right over the greater Boston area. Gulp indeed. Watching this one.

Probably done live-blogging this for tonight. Hope it's been informative. Guardedly optimistic that my aunt/uncle/cousin will still have a house, but should probably advise them to pick up a generator: if the power company guy was right, they're gonna need it. Will see how things look tomorrow.

Other live coverage:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-millions-brace...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/09/10/hurricane-irma-florida-keys-latest-ne...
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/10/us/hurricane-irma-florida.html?mcubz=0
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2017/national/irma-livestream/?utm_term=...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/2017/live-updates/weather/hurricane-irma...
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172389907.html

http://live.tampabay.com/Event/Hurricane_Irma_threatens_Florida_as_Category_5_st...

Nephew near Melbourne (e coast) just lost power. Heavy rains and intense winds straight to front of house. I think he stays because elderly in-laws. (ETA around midnight: "Power back momentarily so we haven't used (generator). No power across the street. Several transformers poping around us.")

Cousin's elderly relatives on 3rd floor of condo in Naples taking cover in closet... Another elderly woman took shelter with younger relative 5 miles in. Her NY son worried, helpless for now.

Must be doubly difficult to evacuate when you're old and frail...Plus as my mum used to say, "You can't tell a Heinz pickle nuthin'."

ETA (Mum was quoting an ad for Heinz pickles which had a number of Heinz sweet mixed pickles, standing around a sandwich, singing, "You can tell a Heinz pickle by its crunch!"Each time they sang this refrain, the sandwich would admonish them, "Pickles! Get back in the jar, before you get eaten up!" Then a hand would come down, grab a pickle, take it up out of view and you would hear a satisfying "Crunch!" This repeated until all the pickles were gone. Then the sandwich turns to the viewer and says, "You can't tell a Heinz pickle nothing!" http://forums.pelicanparts.com/7453314-post34.html)

>154 davidgn: Indeed. Fortunately, looks like they've lucked out with the surge, at least in Naples.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725110
That was supposed to be 3 times worse.

Probably the most notable factor today was Cuba breaking Irma's back before she hit Florida. If anyone wants to try to dig up some more news from there, it would be appreciated.

>154 davidgn: Thanks for the coverage here! And for the links to photos / videos / articles. Much appreciated!

Manatees, Key Deer, Sea Turtles:

The Associated Press
Last Updated Monday, September 11, 2017 12:58AM EDT
ST. PETERSBURG, Fla. - The Latest on Hurricane Irma (all times local):

... 8 p.m.

Two MANATEES were stranded after Hurricane Irma sucked the water out of Sarasota Bay, in Florida's Manatee County.

Several people posted photos of the mammals on Facebook Sunday, hoping rescue workers or wildlife officials would respond. Michael Sechler posted that the animals were far too massive to be lifted, so they gave them water.

Marcelo Clavijo posted that a group of people eventually loaded the manatees onto tarps and dragged them to deeper water.

...5:15 p.m.

The storm surge near Cudjoe Key may be flooding the nearby Florida KEY DEER Refuge, home to fewer than 1,000 of the endangered Key deer.

The unique subspecies of white-tailed deer about 1 metre tall at the shoulder, the size of a large dog, but wildlife officials were not immediately concerned that the herd had been lost to floodwaters.

Dan Clark is refuge manager for the Florida Keys National Wildlife Refuges Complex. He says the deer are "excellent swimmers."

Clark evacuated his staff Wednesday, and he spoke with The Associated Press by phone from Pinellas County.

He says the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service staff planned to return as soon as weather permitted to begin assessing how the deer and other endangered species fared throughout the narrow, low-lying island chain.

... 5:15 p.m.

Wildlife officials say Florida residents and visitors should stay away from SEA TURTLE nests and refrain from any attempts to save them from Hurricane Irma.

The Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission says in a news release that the public must not interfere with any sea turtle eggs, even if they think they're helping.

Officials say sea turtles have a nesting strategy that accommodates natural storm events, with each female depositing several nests throughout the season. No storm season is a total loss for Florida's sea turtles. Even in 2004, when Florida sustained direct hits from several hurricanes, officials say 42 per cent of state's loggerhead nests hatched, well within the normal range.

Anyone who sees exposed turtle eggs or nests should contact wildlife officials...

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/hurricane-irma-nears-populated-tampa-region-1.358293...

______________________________________________________________

Irma’s impact on key deer not known
David Goodhue | September 10, 2017
http://www.flkeysnews.com/news/local/article172494996.html

Head Meet Sand
Donald Trump Hasn’t Faced a Single Climate Change Question Since Hurricanes Hit
And he’s not alone. The topic was barely discussed on the Sunday Shows even as Irma neared Florida.
Sam Stein | 09.10.17

On Friday, the head of the Environmental Protection Agency, Scott Pruitt, declared that it was not appropriate to discuss the issue of climate change in the midst of a major set of hurricanes hitting the United States.

Environmentalist and some lawmakers scoffed at the logic, equating it to a government official declaring counter-terrorism strategy taboo in the aftermath of a terrorism attack.

But though he has no actual control over what gets discussed, Pruitt’s position seems to be winning out. Few pundits are talking about climate change, and fewer reporters are asking about it, even as parts of Texas remain underwater from Hurricane Harvey and Florida braces for potential devastation wrought by Hurricane Irma.

...The White House did not immediately answer whether the president still has doubts about the science of climate change.

Update: Shortly after this piece posted, Trump was asked about climate change while walking on the South Lawn. According to the pool report, he did not answer a question as to whether the storms were tied to global warming.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/donald-trump-hasnt-faced-a-single-climate-change-qu...

__________________________________________________

On Aug 31 (post-Harvey, pre-Irma) Kellyanne Conway's response to climate change question foreshadows EPA's Scott Pruitt's Irma (Sept 8) attempt to close down such questions:

Conway slams CNN anchor for climate change questions during Harvey
Mallory Shelbourne | 08/31/17

...“Chris we’re trying to help the people whose lives are literally underwater and you want to have a conversation about climate change,” Conway said after (CNN's Chris Cuomo) asked about addressing climate change in the wake of the storm.

“I mean, that is, I’m not going to engage in that right now because I work for a president and a vice president and a country that is very focused on helping the millions of affected Texans, and, God forbid, Louisianans if it ends up.”

Cuomo then pressed Conway on finding ways to reduce the number of super storms.

“You’re going to play climatologist tonight?” Conway replied.

“Here’s the deal,” Conway continued. “You play amateur climatologist tonight and I will play professional helper to those in need, and continue in my job here, as counselor to the president, to help listen to the Cabinet members, the president, the vice president, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Department of Homeland Security and others, General John Kelly, who could not be a better chief of staff equipped for a matter like Harvey since he was at DHS and is accustomed to large-scale operations as such.”

Conway said she would come back at a different time to talk about climate change...

http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/348678-conway-slams-cnn-anchor-for-as...

ETA______________________________________________

Rush Limbaugh indicates he's evacuating Palm Beach days after suggesting Hurricane Irma is fake news
Callum Borchersn | Sept 8, 2017
http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/nationworld/ct-hurricane-irma-rush-limbaugh-e...

ETA______________________________________________

The Associated Press
Last Updated Monday, September 11, 2017 12:58AM EDT

... 3:30 p.m.

...A notice from the House majority leader's office says the House now doesn't plan to take any votes Monday because of "the large number of absences" as a result of the storm...

http://www.ctvnews.ca/world/hurricane-irma-nears-populated-tampa-region-1.358293...

ETA_______________________________________________

Finally, can we look for pushback on climate-deniers? (Cross-posting from Climate thread.)

Climate deniers play politics with looming natural disasters
David Horsey | Sept 11. 2017

...in Florida, where, in the not-too-distant future, beach communities will be inundated by the ocean, developers are allowed to continue building along doomed shorelines while the governor has ordered state officials and researchers not to use the terms global warming and climate change. And, in the nation’s capital, the Trump administration is very busy killing an array of federal programs that either gather scientific data about the global warming phenomenon or make plans to deal with the looming problems that the climate shift will bring.

That is what it means to politicize an issue.

http://www.latimes.com/opinion/topoftheticket/la-na-tt-looming-disasters-2017091...

Apparently fresh water is available to people in the Keys, though there's a boil-water advisory. Wonder if there's freshwater for critters. Usually rainwater pools, at least where limestone is less porous. Between the tidal surge and rain, wonder how fresh/saline the puddles are right now? Key Deer refuge was ground zero, sounds like. :-(

Relief Effort Begins After Monster Storm
Dan Campbell Key West Citizen | September 10, 2017
https://keysnews.com/article/story/irma-slugs-cudjoe-key-early-sunday/

A few photos from the Keys
https://twitter.com/JustonStrmRider/status/907035586447507456
And a report
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907063192500756480

And some aerial video from SE of Naples
https://twitter.com/brianemfinger/status/907011779729018880
And video from Naples in eyewall
https://twitter.com/Brooke1H/status/906997172268400640

Tornadoes were crazy yesterday:
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907061286713819137

As some mets were predicting yesterday, NE Florida got some largely unexpected impacts. Record surge in Jacksonville, flash flood emergency.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907179464735563779
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907196242937212929

And record for St. Johns river, still rising.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907208676527820800

Downtown Jax flooding videos
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907200870412152833
https://twitter.com/g8trgirl/status/907207744918343680
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907237979327954944
https://twitter.com/AmandaWills/status/907208783260254208

And pics
https://twitter.com/StaceyReadout/status/907230141839020032
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907224914272321537
https://twitter.com/Ella__Dorsey/status/907253040222232576

Savannah, GA getting it next.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907223023333384192
And South Carolina
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907234550027341826
ETA:
Video from Charleston
https://twitter.com/TrooperBob_SCHP/status/907248153249898497

Update from USVI
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907240217098289152

ETA:
And from Caribbean islands in general.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907257359982088192
Desperation mounts on Caribbean islands: "All the food is gone."
http://www.bostonglobe.com/news/world/2017/09/11/violence-erupts-desperate-carib...

JOSE:
Latest GFS now liking the Carolinas 9 days out.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...

But the Euro still says Out To Sea
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...

A lot of the steering depends on what happens with the remnants of Irma. Very hard to predict at this stage.

ETA: Ensembles.
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12

More news from Keys.

Early damage reports last night.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172503266.html

General updates including Keys. Water service disrupted.
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/news/hurricane-irma-florida-naples-orlando-...

Stories from "die-hards" who stayed.
http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-irma-florida-keys-20170910-story.html

Search and rescue efforts beginning.
http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172537476.html

https://twitter.com/nytclimate/status/907239150725877760
"When is the time to talk about climate change? Scientists say right now. http://nyti.ms/2xqToUL "

https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907255013520678912
"You know who else says it's time to talk about climate change? Island nations who have bore the brunt of disasters"
Powerful hurricanes to fuel demands from island nations at climate talks
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-storm-irma-climate/powerful-hurricanes-to-fuel...

6 dead in flooding in Italy, in Livorno. See if you can find an article in a US newspaper.

>166 RickHarsch: Only one. A wire piece from AP. http://www.nydailynews.com/newswires/news/world/heavy-rains-floods-hit-italy-6-d... ; http://www.foxnews.com/world/2017/09/10/heavy-rain-floods-lash-italy-at-least-5-... ; all I could find carrying it.

ETA: And Democracy Now's covering it. https://www.democracynow.org/2017/9/11/headlines/italy_unexpected_flooding_kills...
(Well, sort of.)

ETA: And CNN. http://edition.cnn.com/2017/09/11/europe/tuscany-flooding/index.html

ETA: NYT printed a Reuters blurb. https://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2017/09/10/world/europe/10reuters-italy-floods-t...
But those took some looking. And only CNN seems to have done actual reporting (not much).

https://twitter.com/GarySzatkowski/status/907272673574707200
"You send out a Tweet. A couple hours later, it's in a Forbes article. Nice writeup by Dr. Shepherd."

Six Surprising Things About Hurricane Irma
https://www.forbes.com/sites/marshallshepherd/2017/09/11/six-surprising-things-a...

An endangered Keys butterfly...

Conservationists See a Hurricane Risk: Florida’s Exotic Pets Could Escape
LIVIA ALBECK-RIPKA | SEPT. 8, 2017

...Hurricane Andrew nearly wiped out the Schaus swallowtail butterfly, a native species that lives only in the Florida Keys. An estimated 350 butterflies remain today, and Dr. Stein said they were at risk again from Hurricane Irma...

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/08/climate/hurricane-irma-florida-exotic-species...

>169 margd: Florida’s Exotic Pets Could Escape
Oh my. Looks like we have a report along these lines in Orlando, and it's a whopper.
https://twitter.com/KaylaOBMedia/status/907272889078046721

Why Hurricane Irma wasn’t far worse, and how close it came to catastrophe
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/capital-weather-gang/wp/2017/09/11/why-hurri...

Savannah River still coming up.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907306222667399168

Virgin Islands: devastating deforestation.
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907327994334777344
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907327044442259457

Charleston flooding video:
https://twitter.com/Aaron_Maybin/status/907306771538214912
Was third-highest surge on record this morning, but was projected to hit #2 (behind Hurricane Hugo).

Hemingway House checks in. Still a survivor!
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/907328509294661635

====
On rebuilding for a world with a changing climate: (from https://twitter.com/EricHolthaus )
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907350118730432513

JOSE:
Euro ensemble guidance not appealing.
https://twitter.com/ericfisher/status/907330842522943489

Operational of GFS shows US landfall:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg...

And operational Euro is moving back west:
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...

Here are the full ensemble tracks:
http://www.weathernerds.org/tc_guidance/storm.html?tcid=AL12
Newfoundland seems the #1 favorite, but still no real agreement.eta

ETA: AND new blog: https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-potential-east-coast-threat

Jacksonville. Record flooding and still rising, at least as of a few hours back. What a picture.
https://twitter.com/JSOPIO/status/907312958161784834
(Jacksonville: where even the sheriff's office's badges are relentlessly self-promoting).
The question is: will this deflate any of the hype? http://www.tradeandindustrydev.com/Region/Florida/jaxusa-key-advantages-business...

Updates NE FL/GA/SC:
https://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/hurricane-irma/irma-s-storm-surge-swallows-jac...
http://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/us/hurricane-irma-weakens-to-category-1-storm/inde...
https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurricane-irma/flooding-debris-closes-jacksonvi...

And sat images from deforested Keys.
https://twitter.com/weatherdak/status/907347198643339264

Some updates.
http://abcnews.go.com/US/irma-leaves-dead-florida-37-dead-caribbean-millions/sto...
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2017/sep/10/hurricane-irma-millions-brace...

US 1 bridges in the Keys are apparently still intact but still need to be fully assessed, and much of the route remains impassable.

Hah! Looks like at least some Key Deer made it!
https://twitter.com/blkahn/status/907436717711482881

>176 davidgn: Oh, that's so good to see. There must be others as well so they still have a chance.

Final summary of Irma records.
https://webcms.colostate.edu/tropical/media/sites/111/2017/09/Hurricane-Irma-Rec...

>176 davidgn: Thanks for that! Does a heart good to see those little guys!

Blogs:
IRMA recap:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-brings-record-flooding-jacksonville-cuts-...
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/irma-makes-its-mark-weather-recordsjose

JOSE:
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-less-threatening-vigilance-still-required

Not difficult to find ways to help hurrican-victims in FL and TX, but what are best ways to help impoverished, smashed Caribbean islands, especially those that can't count on ties with US, Netherlands, UK, France, etc. Below are some I THINK might help (with Charity Navigator ratings if I can find). There must be other venues?

Antigua and Barbuda Red Cross--not rated, but American Red Cross rated ***
https://www.generosity.com/emergencies-fundraising/abrc-hurricane-irma-relief-fu...
I believe this is associated with International Red Cross and Red Crescent of Barbuda and Antigua?
Barbuda was perhaps hardest hit island, with least apparent outside support?
I'm thinking there must be better ways to donate than (American, at least) Red Cross, but this is all I found associated with "Barbuda".
The ask was only $20K, and has been surpassed, but is still open.

World Food Program-- ***
https://www.wfpusa.org/articles/how-wfp-responds-to-emergencies-like-hurricane-i...
I like that UN prepositions 'high energy biscuits' for looming emergencies and famines, and have the wherewithal to deliver to remotes areas for distribution by local charities. It was ready for Irma in n Haiti, and seems to be assisting other islands now(?)

Catholic Charities of the (US?) Virgin Islands--not rated, but other Catholic Charities rated ***/****
https://catholiccharitiesusa.org/members/catholic-charities-of-the-virgin-island...
US Virgin Islands are well supported compared to some others in Caribbean, but the need is great

Others?

ETA___________________________________________

Radio segment currently playing but should be available shortly on Podcast http://the1a.org/podcast

The Islands After Irma
1A with Joshua Johnson
Wednesday, Sep 13 2017

Guests

Michael Weissenstein Caribbean Bureau Chief, Associated Press; based in Cuba
Charles Fernandez Minster of Foreign Affairs and International Trade, Government of Antigua and Barbuda
Claire Alicia Nelson Founder and president, Institute of Caribbean Studies
Kelsey Nowakowski Contributing writer, National Geographic and St. Thomas Source
Jono Anzalone VP, International Services, American Red Cross

http://the1a.org/shows/2017-09-13/the-islands-after-irma

ETA____________________________________________

Virgin Group founder Richard Branson...invoked a post-World War II reconstruction effort in Europe to describe what he believes must take place to help the Caribbean islands hammered by Irma, whose historically savage winds and flooding left at least 34 dead.

...“The region needs a 'Disaster Recovery Marshall Plan' for the BVI and other territories that will aid in recovery, sustainable reconstruction and long-term revitalisation of the local economy,” he wrote Sunday on his blog, his platform of choice since Irma passed over Branson's Necker Island.... (British Virgin Islands)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/09/11/richard-branson-dec...

ETA____________________________________________

Irma's might: New photos of the Caribbean reveal scale of destruction caused by monster hurricane now gunning for Florida
Snejana Farberov | 8 September 2017

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4866414/New-photos-Caribbean-islands-rav...

What in the world does Trump have to do with the hurricane? The obsession so people have with Trump is wrong in so many ways that I don't even know where to begin. What in the world is the matter with you people? Are you the dumbest people in the world? No? Prove it.

Why has this forum been allowed to become nothing but a place to paste anti-Trump articles and links? You understand this makes the page load much slower. I don't know about you rich folks, but I have the slowest DSL possible, and it's still too expensive.

You also should know that much of what you are posting wasn't written to get to the truth. It was written to increase the ratings of TV shows, magazines, and newspapers. That means conflict and complaining. It's created to stir things up. Calm discussion doesn't sell. This is the age of pro wrestling. You are being duped. You are tools.

>182 barney67: Well, in part it has to do with shoehorning current events coverage into a nominally political forum. But it's also entirely apt. What does Trump have to do with hurricanes? Well, what do tax cuts have to do with hurricanes?

http://www.salon.com/2017/09/11/donald-trump-uses-hurricane-irma-to-argue-for-ta...

>183 davidgn: Faced with back-to-back EXPENSIVE hurricanes (never mind wildfires), Trump Administration proposes to do nothing about climate change, instead proposing to loosen construction standards and to cut taxes. At least GW Bush connected Twin Towers with terrorism!

Moreover, Trump couldn't muster the grace to thank Mexico for offer of help with Harvey or to tweet condolences for that country's earthquake and hurricane. As Bugs Bunny used to say:

https://video.search.yahoo.com/search/video?fr=mcafee&p=bugs+bunny+what+a+mo...

Worthless. Another forum page of b.s. Politicizing tragedies. Looking for a secular savior, treating politics as a religion, the veil through which liberals view EVERYTHING. Pathetic.

Whose responsibility is a hurricane? No one's, because no one causes them. They are freaks of weather.

As for the RESPONSE to a hurricane, the local government and weather services have a responsibility to warn residents about the approaching storm. Local and state governments and those involved in public transportation are responsible for seeing that whoever wants to evacuate a city or state has the opportunity to do so.

Anything beyond this is an act of generosity. If you find that help has been insufficient, re-read that last sentence.

You as an individual are responsible for your own life. You can stay behind and watch the neat storm. Or you can haul ass. You can buy proper insurance for your home, in which case you will probably be better off than you were before the storm, or you can take your chances without insurance, living in a place that is known for hurricanes.

It has NOTHING to do with politics.

That gentleman called margd a dumb ass. I add a flag though it has been flagged away. Barney, you've outdone yourself this time, and I don't imagine anything redeemable is within the grasp of the mind you're displaying here.

Both davidgn and margd provided valuable information about the hurricane: this was the best single source I could find in fact up until the last couple days. My advice, Barney, is next time you slip and fall and need someone to lend a hand, don't mention who you are--just in case. Til then, may FEMA be with you.

barney67 - the child Ayn Rand and Nathaniel Branden never had.

lol.

Sounds like deer really can swim, according to Katrina story! Plus a family acquaintance who owns a place on Big Pine Key reports that though lower floor of his raised house was swamped by Irma--a 30ft sailboat jammed under it--it was not completely inundated so there would have been places for deer to shelter. A neighbor of his may have been protected by mangroves, 'coz his house stayed dry. (This is second & third hand, so grain of salt for now.) Hope enough deer / genetic diversity survived, so population will have chance for comeback--and that ocean rise doesn't eventually claim the Keys. Those little guys have been there since the Wisconsin Ice Age!

Key deer somehow survive Hurricane Irma
Todd Masson | Sept 13, 2017

One of the most-puzzling and awe-inspiring marvels of nature in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina was how many white-tailed deer survived at the bird's foot delta at the mouth of the Mississippi River. Katrina pushed in a wall of water that towered 30 feet high and was topped by relentless cresting waves that were even higher.

Deer are good swimmers, but surely no land-based mammal could survive more than a few minutes in those conditions.

Yet, weeks after the storm, biologists with the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries used trail cameras to document the presence of deer on Pass a Loutre Wildlife Management Area. Exactly where and how the animals rode out the storm is anyone's guess.

But survive they did.

The same is apparently true for the federally endangered Key deer that range throughout the Florida Keys...

http://www.nola.com/outdoors/index.ssf/2017/09/key_deer_somehow_survive_hurri.ht...

________________________________________

More concern for other rare Key species, apparently, e.g. Lower Keys Marsh Rabbit, Miami Blue Butterfly:

A tiny endangered deer lives only in the Florida Keys. Here's what we know about its fate.
Karin Brulliard September 13

...We certainly expect that there's Key deer mortality, but we always have faith and confidence that they're going to do okay, because they have in the past."

The biggest immediate concern now is fresh water, though the nature of the storm — which dumped down fresh water — makes it unlikely the deer will go thirsty, he said. The deer eat more than 200 species of plants and have plenty of habitat, so food shouldn't be a problem, he said.

(Dan Clark, who manages the 8,500-acre National Key Deer Refuge and three other wildlife refuges in the keys) said he's more worried about other threatened and endangered species on the refuges he manages. Among the most vulnerable are Lower Keys marsh rabbits, whose little legs would have prevented them from moving fast or far to seek shelter. The very rare Miami blue butterfly, which was thought to have gone extinct after Hurricane Andrew in 1992, might also be in trouble.

"They exist in very small pockets," Clark said. "Their host plants could be damaged."

What's more, Clark said, a disturbed, post-hurricane environment can be a welcome mat for invasive plants and animals, both of which can harm their native species. Preventing them from getting a foothold will be a priority for Clark and his team once they're able to return to the keys...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/animalia/wp/2017/09/13/a-tiny-endangered-dee...

Sure, outrage is fun. Liberals are so good at it. It's a substitute for thought.

I noticed that no one addressed my point. What does Trump have to do with a hurricane? Why is it simply assumed that the president and Congress have a role to play when bad weather hits? You understand that the money they are giving out isn't theirs, it's ours. Or it would be, if the government wasn't 20 trillion in debt.

Yeah, that's right. Remember that? Remember the subject none of you ever talk about? That liberals never talk about and never do anything about?

When you say "the president ought to..." what are basing that opinion on? Your own desires? Are you aware that your desires do not run the country?

It's easier to act shocked than to address the subject. This is the liberal MO. Why doesn't it embarrass you? Are you completely lacking a conscience?

Hurricanes have nothing to do with climate change. Politics has nothing to do with climate change. You think humans can improve the weather? When has that ever been the case?

Why is it always "Trump this" and "Trump that"? Why all this bitching and moaning? Every day! Don't you know anything about the role of the president? Stop treating him like a secular savior. If you want God, go to church. Presidents are not responsible for EVERYTHING. Their power and duties are actually quite limited. It's in the Constitution. That has been posted over and over and over for years. Read the Constitution.

I know that people don't like to hear this, but what's the alternative? To make up things for the president to do, and the rest of us to pay for, as they pop into your head? Or, rather, from a pundit's head to your head, since the purpose of this forum is to cut and paste someone else's ideas.

The first post after you blundered into this answered your post. For other answers start a thread now that the event people got so caught up in is over. Until then, be satisfied that no one here has the energy for a comprehensive list of your foolish comments. For instance: 'Politics has nothing to do with climate change. You think humans can improve the weather? When has that ever been the case?' that alone ranks among the most ignorant posts I've ever read on LT.

>184 margd:

Trump Administration proposes to do nothing about climate change, instead proposing to loosen construction standards and to cut taxes.

What can the Trump administration do about Climate Change?

What have all previous administrations done about Climate Change?

What evidence is there that mankind is causing Climate Change?

I'll have a go at using one answer to suffice all three: None/Nothing

I understand your misery.

>194 LesMiserables: I think God expected a bit more than our throwing up our hands when he gave us this Garden.

Given the federal government's responsibility for interstate commerce, international relations incl defense, and its huge expenditures,
Trump Admin should follow the science, establish a goal , choose strategies, build a program, monitor, revise as necessary.

Here's what NY State is doing:

New York state: the new US climate leader
Karl-Erik Stromsta | Sept 13, 2017

With its 50% (by 2030) renewables mandate, huge upcoming tenders, embrace of offshore wind and planned market redesign, New York state is leading the US energy transition...

http://www.rechargenews.com/transition/1336251/new-york-state-the-new-us-climate...

>194 LesMiserables: "What evidence is there that mankind is causing Climate Change?

I'll have a go at using one answer to suffice all three: None/Nothing"

Really? Nothing? not one jot or iota of any evidence at all? Not even a smidge? A contribution?? For the record this is current state of the world's scientists thoughts on the matter - the IPCC reports

Quotes from the 5th report - summary for policy makers. Section D

"Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse
gas concentrations in the atmosphere, positive radiative forcing, observed warming, and
understanding of the climate system. {2–14}"

D.3 "Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and the ocean, in changes
in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and
in changes in some climate extremes (see Figure SPM.6 and Table SPM.1). This evidence for
human influence has grown since AR4. It is extremely likely that human influence has been
the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. {10.3–10.6, 10.9}"

Hurricane Irma’s impact on birds
Cornell Lab of Ornithology | 8 September, 2017

IMPORTANT: If you are in the path of this devastating and dangerous storm, heed all forecasts and warnings from the National Hurricane Center (NHC). Remember also that strong winds are just one of the dangers, but that the risk of flooding is an equal or greater danger. NEVER put yourself in a situation where rising water may cut off escape routes or force you to cross deep water in your car.***Always put safety before birding.***

Hurricane Irma has transported numerous species of birds far from their normal haunts. Significant storms like this (for example, Irene in 2011, or Harvey last month) often trap (or ‘entrain’) birds in their circulation, depositing them far from where they originated. We still do not fully understand many of the mechanisms involved in birds getting ‘entrained’ and then deposited by storms, which is one reason why Team BirdCast (and many others) are interested in sightings associated with these storms.

These storms and the seabirds that they deposit can provide unique birding experiences and observations, respectively, with species that are normally hundreds of miles offshore flying over your inland yard, or turning up at your local reservoir. Real-time sightings from your eBird checklists will appear in the below map—read on to learn what to look for, and how to look.

What you might see...

http://birdcast.info/forecast/hurricane-irmas-impact-on-birds/

Meanwhile in Australia, snow levels are the highest they have been in decades.

http://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/australias-snow-depth-reaches-new-peak/526860

All due of course to man made global warming...

>199 LesMiserables: - read the IPCC reports. they are quite comprehensible language, at least the summaries. Global warming will lead to increased extreme weather events at all ends of the scale. So yes it sounds paradoxical, but there will be more snow and rain in places. and more heatwaves, more hurricanes, draughts and floods, and all of those will be more extreme than they'd otherwise have been.

>199 LesMiserables: In northern hemisphere at least, fast-warming high latitudes (relative to mid latitudes) apparently makes the jet stream wobble, which can bring Arctic cold far south.

(Longterm concern is that freshwater from melting glaciers, particularly in Greenland, may one day alter the ocean current that warms N Europe. I read that salinity decrease, though slight, is already measurable. You live in Scotland? Hang on to your parka!)

_______________________________________________________

Jennifer Francis (Rutgers U) - Understanding the Jetstream (5:31)
George Morrison | Feb 26, 2013

A short review of how the jetstream and Rossby waves work, and some emerging indications that the dynamics may be changing in a warming world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_nzwJg4Ebzo

>199 LesMiserables: Such idiocy has been mocked for years--The 'Look a cold day in May and they say there's global warming' argument--but to no effect, apparently. But then the extinctions of this epoch are generally due to the human capacity to generate effective blockages to thought, the coming extinction of the manbeast itself as well I figure. The only creature we that know with certainty is capable of irony is committing the grandest irony possible.

New Wunderground blog on Jose (which is threatening the East Coast, likely as a Tropical Storm) and on 96L (the next disturbance, now TD14).
https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/jose-headed-towards-new-england-96l-concern-ea...

Thanks for introducing me to the Wunderground site, @davidgn--I'm in the Boston area and we have a cottage on Cape Cod, so I'm watching this Jose guy closely as well as 96L-probably-soon-to-be-Maria.

>204 Marissa_Doyle: No problem. Yeah, it's one to watch. I still remember Bob... (one of my earliest vivid childhood memories, actually).
http://boston.cbslocal.com/2016/05/21/eye-on-weather-hurricane-bob-1991-massachu...
And my mother was in Newport, RI with family during Carol... at a similar age, actually. Clearly remembers the screen door flying off its hinges when her uncle went out in the middle of it to answer a call for help from a tenant. Also (and especially) the ocean coming right up the street. Talks about it all the time when there's weather.
==========================================
Oh, and here's Levi Cowan's latest, just out.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CRINzNR8SFo

Cones:

Jose


Maria (ugh!)

The 0Z operational Euro solution is really interesting. Start here at +48 hours and play it forward.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...
Of particular interest are 96-168, and then 216-240 (sorry, Carolina folks).

New blog. https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/maria-threatens-leeward-islands-joses-surf-wil...

And the 12Z Euro shows Jose basically stalling in a holding pattern off the coast of Cape Cod, followed up by a direct approach from Maria. Hold on to your gutters (and your beaches.)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&p...

Storm surge displaces freshwater on Keys.
Deer accepts four bottles of water from firefighter...

https://www.theweathernetwork.com/ca/videos/gallery/firefighter-came-across-a-di...

Looking for update on Key Deer. found this National Geographic article. Other rare species more threatened than the deer. Fun fact: "The population of the highly endangered Lower Keys marsh rabbit remains unknown since the storm. That animal’s scientific name, Sylvilagus palustris hefneri, honors contributions to research on the species made by late Playboy icon Hugh Hefner." (Of course he would support research on a bunny. :-)

Recent Hurricanes Pushed Rare Island Species Closer to the Brink
From the iconic Key deer to rare birds, insects, and plants, the wildlife of the Florida Keys took a beating during Hurricane Irma. Can it recover?
https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/10/hurricane-irma-hurts-florida-keys-wi...
________________________________________________________

Another unusual enviro down there was Fidel Castro, who founded a crocodile preserve in Cuba and enjoyed diving. (I can't quite envision a bearded, cigar-chomping dictator on a coral reef!)