Martin Jacques

This is, as everyone says, an important and timely book. Of course it is. The more interesting point is that it's actually rather good, and admirably coherent. Unlike some other recent books on China, which seem to hinge on one idea and uses it as a crow-bar with which to attack all issues relating to China (Will Hutton is definitely guilty in this regard), or one approach to the world (as with Kissinger and yet another book nominally about Realpolitik but which often seems to be more a show more thinly veiled memoir and extended process in self-on-back-patting), Jacques has an entire arsenal of observations. Indeed, there are so many, that one has to reach beyond military metaphors and say he also has an orchestra of ideas. This is important, because he does not simply rely on economics (central though this is), rather illustrating the importance of philosophy, geography, politics, geopolitics, and history in understanding a nation.
Beyond this, Jacques calls on us of the west (be we colonizer or colonized) to understand just what it means to be western. In understanding China we begin to understand Ireland, Britain, France, America - only from the outside in. It is something of an exercise in ideology critique, then, since Jacques again and again isolates what we take to be givens (democracy as the root of political legitimacy, as one stand-out example), dusts off the cobwebs of accumulated assumptions and lazy thought, and hands back a rather different object to us. He recognizes the rhetorical nature of the title too, pointing out that military or political supremacy after the American or European model is not in the make-up of Chinese civilization, or at least not beyond what China considers to be its rightful territory (thus what is to outsiders the curiously -at times almost unintelligibly - fraught relationships with Tibet and Taiwan). Yes, certainly a timely and important book. show less

When China Rules The World 的副題已經將本書的主旨點明，隨著中國崛起，由西方文明所代表的世界觀將會全面改寫，全球進入新秩序。 show more 作者指出，一個佔全球人口五份之一的國度的崛起，將根本改變人們對何謂現代化的觀念。現代化不再等同於西化。中國，以獨特的歷史觀，必然會在主宰全球秩序時，給現代化下新的定義。最簡單不過的例子是在金融海嘯後，西方所代表的自由主義經濟觀受到強烈質疑，「北京共識」之說此起彼落。更重要的是，中國不會走上西方自由民主的道路，而會在中國崛起的背景下，恢復其泱泱大國的心態，在中華文明的軌跡上重拾其光采，主導世界潮流。 對於作者的說法，我想基本上已經不能說是預測，因為無可否認，中國的盛世已經來臨。不過作為一個在香港殖民地方成長的人，我的心裡有兩個問題。第一，就算民主是西方文明的產物，難道民主自由，保障人權等等不具絕對的價值嗎？當我認同這些是絕對價值，我又不禁想到，自己的這些想法，有幾多是因為我在香港成長所引致的呢？我實在不能相信，在我們眼前的中國人，原來不相信民主自由是普世價值。沒有民主，不是因為共產黨，而是因為中國的文化，實在令人難以釋懷。 第二，作者說到儒家價值在中國的根深蒂固。我又不禁想到，南韓同樣受儒家影響，現時已有超過四份一人口成為基督徒。現時基督徒在中國的人數大約佔人口百份之三到四（CIA - The World Factbook 數字），如果基督徒的數目跟南韓相約，到底會對中華文化產生什麼影響？如果有影響，又會不會影響中國怎樣看世界呢？ show less

This review originally appeared on Goodreads (hence the reference to large numbers of other positive reviews):

Thoroughly bemused by the number of positive reviews this book has received - I found it over-long, repetitive, turgid in its treatment of statistics and questionable in its central assumption that the West is doomed to decline and China is destined to soar off into the stratosphere where it will dominate the new world order in a largely benign manner. I am not the only reader who show more seems to have felt that way, but I would have to admit that we do seem to be in the minority - so maybe I am missing something.

It was not that there was nothing to like about this book - it is commendably ambitious, taking a very long period of history in its scope, and it makes the valuable point that the last few hundred years have been an historical anomaly so far as China is concerned (because for much of recent human history it has been one of the most advanced civilisations on the planet).

But I can't help questioning Jacques' central assumption, which is that China is on some unstoppable upward trajectory which will make it the dominant world power. In particular, the very fact that China fell behind as a civilisation for the last couple of hundred years rather undermines his hypothesis because it shows that successful, advanced civilisations can falter and enter a period of stagnation and/or decline. And you only have to look a bit further East to Japan to find an example of a country where, for years, everyone used to say that it was in the ascendancy (at least in economic terms) and Japanese firms were destined to out-compete US and Western European firms, but Japan has faltered of late.

He also writes off the US as a world power and I'm sure he's right that the influence of the US will decline if China becomes more powerful - but the US has repeatedly demonstrated an ability to bounce back after major setbacks. It may well be that competition from China will be good for the US, forcing it to be more creative in its diplomacy and rely less on its military supremacy - but Jacques doesn't seem to want to give that possibility any houseroom.

As for the economy, Jacques seems to be aiming to bludgeon the reader into unconsciousness with statistics about how fast the Chinese economy is growing. But where precisely is it heading? What we haven't seen coming out of China is clear evidence that it can compete with the US in terms of innovation - so far, Chinese firms have proved themselves better at copying than innovating. Again, this doesn't really figure in Jacques' analysis - he just looks at recent statistics and assumes that China will carry on growing at much the same astonishingly fast rate.

The Chinese were certainly a highly innovative civilisation in the past, so there is no reason in principle why China could not regain that status in future - but I just don't think any of this is as cut and dried as Jacques seems to think. In particular, China's current political system is not likely to be one that will foster individualism and the innovation that often goes with it - so if the Chinese government wants to take its economic growth to the next stage, it may have to contemplate some reforms that are not to its liking politically.

No doubt Jacques would say that in making this point, I am guilty of the arrogant Western assumption that democracy goes hand in hand with a market economy (so China is bound to gravitate towards a Western-style form of governance eventually). And if I were saying that things are definitely going to turn out that way, he would be absolutely right to criticise me for it. But I'm not - all I'm saying is that it's one of many possible ways that things could develop in China. This would have been a far more interesting book if Jacques had been more willing to question more of his own assumptions, including his central hypothesis that China will inevitably become the dominant world power.

I found "China in the 21st Century" by Jeffrey Wasserstrom to be a much better read - in some respects it's almost the polar opposite of Jacques' book in that it offers a far more balanced and insightful analysis, being careful to give airtime to competing viewpoints. Mercifully, it somehow also manages to be much, much shorter (3 cheers for brevity and concision!): https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/9147306-china-in-the-21st-century

And if you want an antidote to Jacques' questionable assumptions about China, try this one: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/16104795-china-goes-global show less

I couldn't help but notice no one has reviewed this book yet, so I venture on doing so despite only being 1/4 through it. In any case, Jacques has me absolutely captured. I am a student of history and an absolute nut for geopolitical analysis. So far, this has offered both while at the same time incorporating cultural appreciation and an analysis of the global landscape that just makes sense to me. It is definitely worth a read.