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1JGL53
The Joseph Smith/Ayn Rand ticket may well pull things out at the final trump on Nov. 6 but it sure doesn't look good for this to happen as of today - Sept 25 - in the Year of Our Lard 2012.
Here's the stats that one can easily peruse on the internets or the google machine:
Rasmussen Reports: Has Obama up by one point in the national popular vote but the electoral vote has Obama ahead 237 - 196 with 105 toss-ups. This is with states like Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Florida listed as toss-up, though recent polls show Obama clearly ahead in each.
Note: Rasmussen is notoriously pro-Republican/conservative, and if this is the best they can do for Joseph Smith/Ayn Rand, then golly gee willikers.
RealClearPolitics had Obama ahead on national popular vote by 3.7 per cent but ahead in the electoral count 247-191-100. On their "No Toss Up" board it is Obama ahead 347 - 191.
Electoral-vote.com has it 328-206 Obama with 4 toss-ups.
HuffPost Election Dashboard has it Obama up 332-191 with 15 toss-ups.
And finally Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com - who predicted the 2008 election best of all polls has this year's race Obama 309-229.
A recent poll supposedly shows that Obama has cut Joseph Smith's lead among the 60 years and older cohort of voters from 20 points to four points.
A small study, somewhat in dispute as you can well imagine, has Obama beating Joseph Smith among NASCAR fans. Whoa Nellie.
The upshot of all this is that the Joseph Smith/Ayn Rand ticket can still win but they're going to have to turn things around in a hurry. I.e., I just don't think that many pollsters can have it that wrong.
Maybe Joseph Smith will kick Obama's ass in the debates. Maybe Obama will be caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy in a "October surprise". Maybe actual evidence will come forth that Obama was really born in Kenya and he will be thrown out of office. Maybe Mars will attack and the election postponed indefinitely.
Excepting something like the above I would say that gambling is wrong and makes baby Jesus cry. But if you must bet real money on the Presidential race then I would say place a teeny tiny bet on Joseph Smith and then a large bet on the side on Obama. That might seem prudent.
Here's the stats that one can easily peruse on the internets or the google machine:
Rasmussen Reports: Has Obama up by one point in the national popular vote but the electoral vote has Obama ahead 237 - 196 with 105 toss-ups. This is with states like Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada and Florida listed as toss-up, though recent polls show Obama clearly ahead in each.
Note: Rasmussen is notoriously pro-Republican/conservative, and if this is the best they can do for Joseph Smith/Ayn Rand, then golly gee willikers.
RealClearPolitics had Obama ahead on national popular vote by 3.7 per cent but ahead in the electoral count 247-191-100. On their "No Toss Up" board it is Obama ahead 347 - 191.
Electoral-vote.com has it 328-206 Obama with 4 toss-ups.
HuffPost Election Dashboard has it Obama up 332-191 with 15 toss-ups.
And finally Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com - who predicted the 2008 election best of all polls has this year's race Obama 309-229.
A recent poll supposedly shows that Obama has cut Joseph Smith's lead among the 60 years and older cohort of voters from 20 points to four points.
A small study, somewhat in dispute as you can well imagine, has Obama beating Joseph Smith among NASCAR fans. Whoa Nellie.
The upshot of all this is that the Joseph Smith/Ayn Rand ticket can still win but they're going to have to turn things around in a hurry. I.e., I just don't think that many pollsters can have it that wrong.
Maybe Joseph Smith will kick Obama's ass in the debates. Maybe Obama will be caught in bed with a dead girl or a live boy in a "October surprise". Maybe actual evidence will come forth that Obama was really born in Kenya and he will be thrown out of office. Maybe Mars will attack and the election postponed indefinitely.
Excepting something like the above I would say that gambling is wrong and makes baby Jesus cry. But if you must bet real money on the Presidential race then I would say place a teeny tiny bet on Joseph Smith and then a large bet on the side on Obama. That might seem prudent.
2RidgewayGirl
While the polls are reassuring (as well as Limbaugh's constant talk about cleaning house after the election), never disregard the Democrats' amazing skill at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
But use Romney and Ryan's real names. I hear all sorts of variations on the President's name here in this dark red state, and am beginning to think that just addressing the opposition with reasonable respect would go a long way toward restoring civil discourse.
But use Romney and Ryan's real names. I hear all sorts of variations on the President's name here in this dark red state, and am beginning to think that just addressing the opposition with reasonable respect would go a long way toward restoring civil discourse.
3JGL53
> 2
Or not.
I live in a dark red state too. I don't discuss politics in public. The general (white) public here is in a real bad mood now.
I.e., they don't like voting for a Mormon but they're don't quite hate on Mormons as much as they do on N-words.
They fear Obama will be reelected - though they won't say so in public - they are superstitious and believe in word magic - so if they don't say it maybe it won't happen.
But I can see the fear in their eyes.
Or not.
I live in a dark red state too. I don't discuss politics in public. The general (white) public here is in a real bad mood now.
I.e., they don't like voting for a Mormon but they're don't quite hate on Mormons as much as they do on N-words.
They fear Obama will be reelected - though they won't say so in public - they are superstitious and believe in word magic - so if they don't say it maybe it won't happen.
But I can see the fear in their eyes.
4JGL53
Well, slap my face and call me Sally - I never even thought of this but, yeah, that makes sense:
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#
This jump in Obama's numbers, up anywhere from 3 to 9 points in the last three weeks - it is almost ALL because of people 65 years old and older. And the reason is someone explained to them what an effing "voucher" is.
Understanding that Ayn Rand - and his lesser running mate Joseph Smith - fully intend to shitcan Medicare, well, all the kids in all the world playing on each old person's lawn couldn't piss them off more.
It's like the republicans stay up nights figuring out new and exciting ways to steam the gourds of more and different cohorts of the electorate. But when you jerk around "The Greatest Generation" you are asking for a titty-twister, an atomic wedgie AND a helicopter kick between the eyes. Dagnabit.
At this point I think the only way the Smith/Rand ticket can win is if before Nov. 6 god herself strikes each and every American in the head with bolt of lightening, reducing each person's I.Q. by 40 points.
http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#
This jump in Obama's numbers, up anywhere from 3 to 9 points in the last three weeks - it is almost ALL because of people 65 years old and older. And the reason is someone explained to them what an effing "voucher" is.
Understanding that Ayn Rand - and his lesser running mate Joseph Smith - fully intend to shitcan Medicare, well, all the kids in all the world playing on each old person's lawn couldn't piss them off more.
It's like the republicans stay up nights figuring out new and exciting ways to steam the gourds of more and different cohorts of the electorate. But when you jerk around "The Greatest Generation" you are asking for a titty-twister, an atomic wedgie AND a helicopter kick between the eyes. Dagnabit.
At this point I think the only way the Smith/Rand ticket can win is if before Nov. 6 god herself strikes each and every American in the head with bolt of lightening, reducing each person's I.Q. by 40 points.
5lriley
The Republicans have a big problem as far as finding people who can consolidate their voting base and appeal to independent voters. Ryan was a poor choice. I've thought that all along but considering the weak field as far as presidential wannabes and what finally shook out--Romney and the number of misfires that he has had and his overall social awkwardness I'm not surprised he bet his farm on someone his party thinks is an up and coming hard nosed conservative. I think there are numerous reasons why their ship seems to be going down. I don't see a future national leader in their party which doesn't mean they're not going to continue to at least control the house. If there is one he/she is no doubt a governor (Kasich? Jindal?) because for the most part their Senators are old and cantankerous lifers.
6BruceCoulson
Well, the Republican ticket's fund raising also lacks something too.
A friend who used to be Republican just received a Republican request for funds for the Romney/Ryan ticket. Now, those of you familiar with such mass mailings might be thinking, 'Oh, this is pretty standard; you can donate $25+, up to a few thousand dollars.' But this was not that kind of request. The amount requested was $75,800.
No, I didn't mis-type that.
And no, he doesn't run a local business, and doesn't have a net worth that would make such a donation trivial. Nor was there an offer to be seen with/shake the hand of Romney; or even Ryan.
A friend who used to be Republican just received a Republican request for funds for the Romney/Ryan ticket. Now, those of you familiar with such mass mailings might be thinking, 'Oh, this is pretty standard; you can donate $25+, up to a few thousand dollars.' But this was not that kind of request. The amount requested was $75,800.
No, I didn't mis-type that.
And no, he doesn't run a local business, and doesn't have a net worth that would make such a donation trivial. Nor was there an offer to be seen with/shake the hand of Romney; or even Ryan.
7RidgewayGirl
$75,800? They couldn't round up or down?
8JGL53
I have this conspiracy theory that Rmoney is being paid a couple of billion dollars under the table from some Democrat billionaire to purposely blow the election.
With each passing day my conspiracy makes more and more sense.
If Rmoney freaks at the debate Wednesday and e.g., calls all white people in the south effing Rednecks, or says that if there is anyone he hates more than Hispanics then it is old people, or takes it out and shakes it at the camera and says "Hey all you women - can you handle the Big Bamboo?" - then I'm gonna start actually believing the fix is in. I swear, I'm not going to be surprised is something like that happens, considering what's happened to date.
The only other possible answer I can entertain is that Ann Rmoney is right - Willard may be having a nervous breakdown or just going mental generally.
With each passing day my conspiracy makes more and more sense.
If Rmoney freaks at the debate Wednesday and e.g., calls all white people in the south effing Rednecks, or says that if there is anyone he hates more than Hispanics then it is old people, or takes it out and shakes it at the camera and says "Hey all you women - can you handle the Big Bamboo?" - then I'm gonna start actually believing the fix is in. I swear, I'm not going to be surprised is something like that happens, considering what's happened to date.
The only other possible answer I can entertain is that Ann Rmoney is right - Willard may be having a nervous breakdown or just going mental generally.
10RidgewayGirl
Which would make a Romney presidency more frightening. If the pressures of campaigning are too much, what happens when lives are on the line?
11Jesse_wiedinmyer
$75,800? They couldn't round up or down?
They did. Originally it was 75,799.95.
They did. Originally it was 75,799.95.
12RidgewayGirl
I guess saying $76,000 would just be greedy.
13BruceCoulson
There's probably some Ohio law which limits personal campaign contributions to that arbitrary amount.
14Carnophile
Re: Horse race:
Romney has best Gallup tracking poll numbers since 1968.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/robbins-report/2012/oct/21/romney-has-best-g...
Romney has best Gallup tracking poll numbers since 1968.
http://www.washingtontimes.com/blog/robbins-report/2012/oct/21/romney-has-best-g...
15Carnophile
Re: dodgy campaign finance:
Illegal donations, Obama and Romney:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/bam_blind_eye_to_illegal_donors_8SWotytr1R...
Related:
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/21/obama-campaign-collecting-more-donations-from-...
Illegal donations, Obama and Romney:
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/national/bam_blind_eye_to_illegal_donors_8SWotytr1R...
Related:
http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/21/obama-campaign-collecting-more-donations-from-...
16lriley
#14--I always hear from conservatives to forget the polls.
Predictions then:
Obama wins these states and their electoral votes outright--California-55, New York-29, Pennsylvania-20, Illinois-20, Michigan-16, New Jersey-14, Washington-12, Massachussetts-11, Maryland-10, Minnesota-10, Wisconsin-10, Connecticut-7, Oregon-7, Nevada-6, New Mexico-5, Hawaii-4, Rhode Island-4, Maine-4, Vermont-3, Deleware-3, D.C.-3 =253
Romney wins--Texas-38, Georgia-16, Indiana-11, Arizona-11, Tennessee-11, Missouri-10, South Carolina-9, Alabama-9, Louisiana-8, Kentucky-8, Oklahoma-7, Mississippi-6, Arkansas-6, Kansas-6, Utah-6, West Virginia-5, Nebraska-4*--Nebraska has 5 but the electoral vote for Omaha if Omaha votes democratic will go the the democrats, Idaho-4, Wyoming-3, Montana-3, Alaska-3, North Dakota-3, South Dakota-3=190
Which leaves us the following Florida-29, Ohio-18, North Carolina-15, Virginia-13, Colorado-9, Iowa-6, New Hampshire-4, Nebraska (Omaha)-1.
They all look like squeakers. Romney has to win both Florida and Ohio to have any chance. Obama wins with just Virginia and Iowa.
Gut feeling. Obama wins Ohio-18--as well democratic Senator Sherrod Brown--their candidacies help each other. He also wins Colorado-9, Iowa-6 and New Hampshire-4. He's at 290.
Romney takes Florida-29, North Carolina-15. He's at 234.
Virginia-13 is so close it takes at least a week to decide. Nebraska (Omaha)--don't know.
Predictions then:
Obama wins these states and their electoral votes outright--California-55, New York-29, Pennsylvania-20, Illinois-20, Michigan-16, New Jersey-14, Washington-12, Massachussetts-11, Maryland-10, Minnesota-10, Wisconsin-10, Connecticut-7, Oregon-7, Nevada-6, New Mexico-5, Hawaii-4, Rhode Island-4, Maine-4, Vermont-3, Deleware-3, D.C.-3 =253
Romney wins--Texas-38, Georgia-16, Indiana-11, Arizona-11, Tennessee-11, Missouri-10, South Carolina-9, Alabama-9, Louisiana-8, Kentucky-8, Oklahoma-7, Mississippi-6, Arkansas-6, Kansas-6, Utah-6, West Virginia-5, Nebraska-4*--Nebraska has 5 but the electoral vote for Omaha if Omaha votes democratic will go the the democrats, Idaho-4, Wyoming-3, Montana-3, Alaska-3, North Dakota-3, South Dakota-3=190
Which leaves us the following Florida-29, Ohio-18, North Carolina-15, Virginia-13, Colorado-9, Iowa-6, New Hampshire-4, Nebraska (Omaha)-1.
They all look like squeakers. Romney has to win both Florida and Ohio to have any chance. Obama wins with just Virginia and Iowa.
Gut feeling. Obama wins Ohio-18--as well democratic Senator Sherrod Brown--their candidacies help each other. He also wins Colorado-9, Iowa-6 and New Hampshire-4. He's at 290.
Romney takes Florida-29, North Carolina-15. He's at 234.
Virginia-13 is so close it takes at least a week to decide. Nebraska (Omaha)--don't know.
18madpoet
What politician was it who said (he was down in the polls, of course): "You know what dogs do to poles!"
20madpoet
>19 Lunar:
Actually, it was a Canadian politician, John Diefenbaker, who was asked about a poll in which his party was shown as trailing. He subsequently lost the election.
ETA: Oh... just clicked on your link. I should have heeded your warning. Not my idea of funny.
Actually, it was a Canadian politician, John Diefenbaker, who was asked about a poll in which his party was shown as trailing. He subsequently lost the election.
ETA: Oh... just clicked on your link. I should have heeded your warning. Not my idea of funny.
21RidgewayGirl
Hey, Joss Whedon has made a video supporting Romney's candidacy.
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/slacktivist/2012/10/28/joss-whedon-endorses-mitt-ro...
http://www.patheos.com/blogs/slacktivist/2012/10/28/joss-whedon-endorses-mitt-ro...
23Carnophile
Ah, the left. So wonderfully free of vulgar religious bigotry.
24JGL53
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/31/voter-fraud-false-sighting-ohio_n_20507...
Dumb-ass racist republicans attempting to subvert the Constitution - again.
Where's the House Committee on Un-American Activities when we actually need them? The Reds are trying to overthrow our form of government.
And by Reds I mean Rednecks.
If Rmoney wins then these assholes win. And then we (the middle-class) will be truly and long term if not forever fucked.
Just another crappy day in paradise.
Dumb-ass racist republicans attempting to subvert the Constitution - again.
Where's the House Committee on Un-American Activities when we actually need them? The Reds are trying to overthrow our form of government.
And by Reds I mean Rednecks.
If Rmoney wins then these assholes win. And then we (the middle-class) will be truly and long term if not forever fucked.
Just another crappy day in paradise.
25krolik
>19 Lunar:
Puns schmuns. Most pretexts are good for reminding people of this still badly understood event. Time to link Józef Mackiewicz, who is a Serious Big Deal yet unappreciated in "The West." He was a major witness to the Katyn massacre aftermath, and later was jerked around for political reasons. Mackiewicz showed both intellectual and physical courage in the manner of Orwell but circumstances and cruel historical happenstance did not treat him as kindly.
I unconditionally recommend his novel "The Road to Nowhere" Droga donikąd. Not all links seem to work but you can find a 1964 English translation from Regnery.
Sorry to digress from the subject of this particular thread...but if some of the "usual suspects" of Pro & Con agreed to start a thread where we discussed an English translation of Mackiewicz, I wonder if we might find it more stimulating that our somewhat predictable bickering about the current U.S. political process, where we tend to repeat the same dance, knowing (more or less) what the other will say.
Any takers?
Puns schmuns. Most pretexts are good for reminding people of this still badly understood event. Time to link Józef Mackiewicz, who is a Serious Big Deal yet unappreciated in "The West." He was a major witness to the Katyn massacre aftermath, and later was jerked around for political reasons. Mackiewicz showed both intellectual and physical courage in the manner of Orwell but circumstances and cruel historical happenstance did not treat him as kindly.
I unconditionally recommend his novel "The Road to Nowhere" Droga donikąd. Not all links seem to work but you can find a 1964 English translation from Regnery.
Sorry to digress from the subject of this particular thread...but if some of the "usual suspects" of Pro & Con agreed to start a thread where we discussed an English translation of Mackiewicz, I wonder if we might find it more stimulating that our somewhat predictable bickering about the current U.S. political process, where we tend to repeat the same dance, knowing (more or less) what the other will say.
Any takers?
26Mr.Durick
There is only one book by him available from BN.COM. It is a hardcover for $65 and is not this one. Regnery does not recognize his name, and he is not listed among their authors.
Robert
Robert
27lriley
Mackiewicz sounds very interesting but he's not on half.com and there is only one of his Katyn books in English on Abebooks and that's about $40 for a beaten up library copy which is kind of pricey for me. There is a Polish writer W. S. Kuniczak more famous for the novel The thousand hour day--his follow up book 'The March' had the Katyn massacre and he apparently believed it was Soviets--it's a fairly detailed description.
