William Strauss (1947–2007)

I've been following Neil Howe's insights for a couple years now and
read this to get their broader historical analysis. For as much as
their model has been criticized as inexact and unproven, I find it to
make a lot of sense. Their generational observations match
commonalities I've perceived for the same age groups. There are two
reasons I didn't rate this book higher. First, the last third of it is
prediction. We're about halfway throught the Fourth Turning. I see
signs of their predictions being show more right, but the full crisis and
emergence of heroes will require a longer test of time. I also found
the tone of the last portion to be too apocalyptic.

Howe and Strauss posit that history cycles through four turnings,
driven by a natural rhythm defined by human generations of
approximately 20 to 25 years. People react to the generations before
them, acting out the stories common to every era, such as the heroic
youth rising to meet the latest crisis, and the teenager rebelling
against their parent's conventions. The trends reverse themselves when
they become too extreme. The result is a cycle of four turnings: a
High of upbeat recovery and increasing civic order, an Awakening of
new spiritual values including criticism of the new regime, an
Unraveling where the order decays, and a Crisis where upheaval resets
the whole cycle again. This cycle has repeated itself in the New World
since its beginning. For example, the authors point to the American
Revolution, the Us Civil War, and the Great Depression as the most
recent Unravelings.

The respective generations born in each part of the cycle match an
archetype formed by the events that tend to unfold during the course
of their lives, and that they in turn reinforce throught their
reaction to these events. These four archetypes are: Prophet, Nomad,
Hero, and Artist. show less

Thought provoking. IS this an insight into predestination? We now live at the end of the fourth turning. What were its defining events and stresses? The economic meltdown of 2007? The war in Afghanistan? The Ukraine war? The smartphone? Artificial intelligence?
Certainly there seems more fear of civil war in America than any time in living memory. There is even a movie about it. Perhaps that makes it less likely. IS Biden our gray eminence? Certainly he IS gray. IS he seen as pointing the show more way to a new future based on self sacrifice? History will judge that. IS artificial intelligence the stepping stone into a new future for our society? There is Michael being written now about limits to free will. show less

Unfortunately, I was bored reading the book. The introduction would have been sufficient for me to understand the cycles. However, 25 years ago this information must have been mind blowing. In contrast, today I didn't find much more information about each cycle as they were presented. I must admit, though, that the categorization of time into these cycles is brilliant. The prediction about our current time of chaos lasting until 2030 was sobering. I am not looking forward to 5 more years of show more chaos. show less

What I like most about Millennials Rising is its explanation of the dynamics that influence each generation, in general and with much analysis of Millennials in particular. Howe and Strauss theorize that the generations repeat each other in a cycle of four. Each generation solves the biggest problem facing its immediate predecessor, corrects for the behavioral excesses of the now midlife generation, and fills the social void being left by the current elders. To explain this cycle relative to show more the current Millennial generation and their Boomer and Gen X parents, the authors reference the most recent 5 generations, which they define as follows: Lost, 1883-1900; G. I., 1901-1924; Silent, 1925-1942; Boom, 1943-1960; X, 1961-1981; Millennial, 1982-2002. The Millennials reject the jaded self-reliance they see in Generation X. Instead, they consciously opt for optimism, to work in teams, and to return society back toward rules and decency. "You don't rebel against Boomers by being uber-Xers. You rebel by being G.I. redux, a youthful update of the generation against which the Boomers themselves rebelled, so famously in the 1960's and 1970's."

Since this book was published in 2000, the Millennials have grown such that the youngest are nearly teenagers and the oldest are entering the ranks of management. With ten years of history now available, many of the authors' predictions have proven true. For example, the Millennial generation still maintains a more conservative fiscal outlook and better savings rates compared to their parents. Perhaps the upcoming generation will be too risk averse. Their grandparents might even think their legacy is lost, as their heirs fail to continue challenging the Establishment (which the raucous Boomer's of the 60's have now become). Despite these concerns, it's most inspiring to see a trend toward optimism and collaboration now emerging into maturity. show less