Mark Lynas

****.5

During the cold war, the threat of nuclear war was ever-present, much like climate change is now, but more immediate and imminent. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the fears diminished, although the nuclear weapons never went away. As Lynas clearly describes, they are essentially still on a hair trigger, with the president of the United States allowed only six minutes to decide whether to launch a civilization ending retaliation if an enemy attack is detected. A similar system is show more in place on the Russian side. This should be intensely alarming, regardless of who currently inhabits the White House or the Kremlin.

Lynas approaches the impact of a nuclear war from the perspective of a climate scientist. He details the devastation caused by the initial detonation, but that's fairly well known and was covered in the recent Nuclear War: A Scenario (although overall this is a much better book, and now that it's out would recommend not bothering with that one). Where Lynas shines is his insight into what happens next, which should scare even the most well-prepped prepper. Using the modern tools and climate models, he shows how the resulting firestorms form, and in turn lead to a prolonged nuclear winter as a result of all the gunk thrown up into the upper atmosphere. The effect is chilling, both literally and metaphorically.

He then deviates and looks back at previous cold periods and extinction level events in earth's history. While interesting, these topics have been extensively covered elsewhere, and are only peripherally related to the topic of the book. I found it to be an unnecessary digression that distracted from the main point.

We then get a history of the development of nuclear weapons, and gory accounts of the devastation caused by their use in Japan and the many tests conducted in the 1940's-1960's. I learned almost nothing from these sections because there have been many dozens of books that have exhaustively delved into every imaginable detail, and again they were only marginally relevant to the point of the book, which is the current threat and what to do about it.

More pertinent was the listing of various near misses, demonstrating the very real risks, and how close we've been to catastrophe on multiple occasions. At this rate, it's only a matter of time until the worst case scenario happens. Which leads to the concluding chapters, which consist of a forceful manifesto for disarmament.

There are lots of great quotes in the book worth repeating, but here are a couple from the conclusion that stuck with me:

"This is not a zero-sum game, it is a zero-win game."

"Fatalism is not an option, unless you’re content for the outcome to be fatal."

I rounded down because it's a bit of a chore to get through the middle part of the book, which is a shame because the beginning and end are so important, but the main points almost get lost in the shuffle. Still, a highly recommended read, especially for the younger generations who don't remember the existential dread that I grew up with in the 80's. show less

Mark Lynas is a British author who is best known for his Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet published in 2007. This is an update 13 years later and it is even more pessimistic given what has happened with no reduction in CO2 emissions. Both books follow a simple, clear and calm format. Chapter 1 is a description of the world at 1 degrees. And so on up to Chapter 6. It is based on the best science available, sourced to academic journals such as Nature and the IPCC. Assuming CO2 show more levels continue to climb steadily, it's likely we will reach 3 degrees by mid to late century. This is game over because natural tipping points take over and society ceases to function due to widespread drought and killer heat as it reaches 4-6 degrees. It's also possible 2 degrees will cause this, there is no safe level from here out.

Almost every major extinction event in history has been caused by global warming, we live on a perilously balanced planet. There is no historic parallel for the rate and amount of CO2 emissions, it exceeds the worst extinction the Siberian Traps by a factor of 60 in terms of speed of emissions. And while there have been periods when the total ppm exceed our own, things are different now - the sun is brighter causing more warming per molecule then in the past, and again no historic precedent for speed and volume of emissions. Lynas ends this hopeless book with a tone of hope: do not give up. Immediately stop all fossil fuel usage no matter the cost. If enough people take this approach we will see dramatic changes and perhaps in time because there isn't much left.

I'm rating this highly not because of the message, there are already many excellent global warming books. This one stands out by focusing on the big picture without going too far into the weeds and becoming doom scrolling which can leave you exhausted and demoralized. This is a large complex topic and there is a lot to know but this gets all the pieces correct. show less

A thought-provoking book. It's a useful infodump of facts and recent research on human-caused global changes. But it also attacks the assumptions of many environmentalists that GE and nuclear power are bad, and challenges them to accept the science on these topics as thoroughly as they insist others do with global warming. Lynas explores a crack running through the modern environmental movement where some of its ideology conflicts with scientific evidence; nothing to do with global warming, show more just the idea that moral austerity is a necessary part of making global changes. He forces the reader to examine how serious one's own commitment to saving the planet is, and how much of it might be adherence to a social movement to make one feel better about living in the West. Why are we so repulsed by the possibility that everyone could have a decent standard of living and have children if they want them? What if that were actually possible? Instead we act like all must suffer, all sacrifice, all turn down our thermostats and mortify the flesh by shivering. show less

Mark Lynas's Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet, written in 2008, presents in devastating detail the likely trajectory of the climate change crisis if we remain on our current course. Lynas shows, degree by degree Celcius, the alarming consequences of global warming. He effectively buttresses the case by citing evidence from earlier warmer periods of the earth's atmospheric and geologic history, as well as examples of the effects currently underway. The prospects are frightening, show more particularly for future generations.

While reading the book, I checked the NASA website to see the trends (carbon dioxide, global temperature, arctic ice minimum, sea level, etc.) for the last decade which, of course, continue apace. That day the U.S. president, who earlier this year pulled the United States out of the Paris Agreement, nominated a climate change denier to be the next head of NASA. Those interested in viewing the agency's relevant data are advised to do so quickly, as the information soon will likely be removed, just as all climate change data was deleted from the Environmental Protection Agency's website the day the president was inaugurated. show less