Kishore Mahbubani

The subtitle of this extended essay is "A Provocation" and it is certainly provoking.

Whilst there is much in what Singaporean academic Mahbubani says about the attitudes of the West and their collective failure to come to terms with their declining position in the world, there is also a disdainfulness in his assertions that both rankle and smack of history as a cherry picking exercise designed to illustrate an exaggerated and skewed/biased analysis.

His basic premise is that China and India show more always had the largest economies for 1800 years and that the West's last 200 years of hegemony was an aberration that was doomed always to be relinquished but that the West have precipitated its own demise by a series of missteps and hubris post the end of the Cold War. I think some of the criticism of the West - he is especially critical of the US and to an only slightly lesser degree Europe - is justified in that the obsession with regime change, the imposition of values and interventionism has lead to a distraction in foreign wars that has lead to the West sleeping whilst China in particular has risen.

Where he fails in his analysis however is by the untested assumption that the sheer scale of gross numbers matter above all else. I give a simple illustration.
If China has an economy of $1.6 trillion dollars with a 1.6 billion population it has a larger economy than
Germany with an economy of $1 trillion dollars and a population of 100 million but it is in no fair assessment a richer country. Germany would be in mathematical terms 10 times richer. (the numbers are illustrative not accurate).

He also fails to appreciate that it is largely by the West's own push to globalisation and free trade that the economies of China and India have been freed and, whilst recognising their own efforts is capitalising on these opportunities, it is clear that they weren't and aren't entirely self generated.

Mahbubani also states that China and India is leading the world in environmental change and preservation which is a frankly extraordinary and unsustainable position to take and does so without any empirical evidence to support this claim. He also (as an ex-delegate to the UN) lauds the role of the UN General Assembly (which has generally been signally ineffective) whilst complaining about the USA's undermining of its institutions when it is the USA that has to a very great extent bankrolled the whole thing.

That said he does make many telling points that I concur with and especially those about the West's propensity to interference. He makes especially prescient comments about the West's humiliation of Russia and the effect this has had solidifying support there for Putin and the gross errors of NATO expansion especially with regards to Ukraine.

"Contrary to the implicit assurances given to Gorbachev and Soviet leaders in 1990, the West expanded NATO into previous Warsaw Pact countries........Tom Friedman was dead right when he said 'I opposed expanding NATO towards Russia after the Cold War, when Russia was at its most democratic and least threatening. It remains one of the dumbest things we've ever done and, of course, laid the groundwork for Putin's rise.'" 56pp

Essentially, he is correct in that the West has squandered the good will and frankly the supremacy bestowed upon it by victory in the Cold War. This has been due to economic complacency - free trade when one side has things rigged is never free trade - but also by extremely poor foreign policy decisions exemplified mainly by the invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the nonsensical expansion of NATO.
Where he over-eggs the pudding though is in his dismissal of the West as a spent force that must accept that China is now the "new number one" as his method of measurement is flawed and also in his glorification of that same China which has since e foisted COVID on the world and slaughtered the Uighars. Xi is not the enlightened hero painted in these provocative but timely and worthwhile pages. show less

Kishore Mahbubani has an excellent grasp, not only of world and Western history over the past couple of decades, but a fairly realistic and reasonably objective viewpoint and analysis of the twenty-first century world. If overly sensitive Westerners take offense at his criticisms, it is only because they’ve drunk the Kool-Aid of a continuing US/Western arrogance in their long held beliefs that they have enjoyed international dominance for the past few centuries almost by their theocratic show more god-given right to determine and influence the fate of other sovereign countries and the world in general. As a foreign affairs analyst, specializing in China, East Asia and the remainder of Asia, I have watched the rapid changes Asia has been undergoing for the past 30 years, as well as more recently, and the BRICS coalition as a whole as well. I have watched the world transition from a bipolar world to unipolar which arrogant US leaders thought they’d maintain forever while decimating the country with never ending, pointless trillion dollar wars with no viable exit strategies or remotely mature, well planned long term goals/agendas of transforming the world into one of capitalist democracies modeled on its own with no understanding of various states’ histories, peoples, religions (beyond a superficial understanding), goals, ambitions, desire or willingness, let alone historical experience with a democratic system, to undergo the changes being forced through a variety of methods and strategies, and without any realistic understanding or foresight of whether such peoples and societies are even capable of sustaining substantial change (see Russia as prime example), not to mention issues such as deregulation, unchecked globalization, and unrealistic and misleading (often intentional) economic status and forecasting studies, analysis and reports, helping to lead not only the US, but much of the West as well and the rest of the world into the worst financial disaster/crisis since the Great Depression. And now we’ve reached a multi-polar world, or very nearly. There are many other variables, but as the author so adroitly points out, most of the West and especially the US have regressed into such bitter divisiveness and polarization led by renegade “politicians” egged on by (and egging on) an unanticipated tide of carefully managed white rage, which has become so toxic that hate and any willingness to seek or accept compromise have become more common in the former and nonexistent in the latter in America on both sides of the aisle than at any time in many decades, if not centuries. And what has this led to? A broken dysfunctional country resentful of the rest of the world for perceived injustices of “free rides” of growth, a huge number of defense treaties and US promises to protect most of the world with the country’s nuclear umbrella — contingent upon their signing the NPT and the promise of nonproliferation, ultimately an economic, militarized, hypocritically moralistic declining superpower reluctant to acknowledge the literal and inevitable power shift from West to East and the rapid rise of an increasing number of regional powers with the potential of becoming competing “superpowers,” most especially and obviously China. I have been observing China for decades and for much of this decade I have been trying to educate, inform, warn, etc. as many people as possible of the very real potential dangers an increasingly aggressive, brazen China MAY represent, with the alleged Chinese goal of 2049 in mind, which whether one accepts the theory/belief or not, is in fact on the minds of many government officials, military leaders, policy and foreign relations analysts, etc., regardless of the alleged goal as a plausible reality or no. These, and many more domestic/international issues, don’t appear to either exist or matter to most Americans who are too engrossed in social media, Play Stations, reality TV, etc., oblivious to the major changes taking place around the world, many of which WILL impact Americans. I have read and researched numerous issues of increasing international concern, such as the escalating situation in the SCS, East China Sea disputes, Brazil’s demands for global power recognition, India’s prominent rise in South Asia as a possible competitor to China, the resurgence of Eurasia in other words, and there are many excellent resources out there, from all viewpoints. But most I’ve encountered have been or are authored by Americans or other Westerners, and the fact that this book takes a radically different approach to such issues, that of a non-Western world citizen with many interesting and valid points, criticisms and ultimately suggestions as one who feels America needs to adjust both its perception of US hegemony being a long lasting given and that the world revolves around us, as well as domestic and international priorities/strategies, to a more realistic position, like it or not, and all of this is written to America(ns) from one who has long admired this country, continues to feel the role of America’s power is crucial for the stability of the world, and is rooting for us. Badly. Unique, refreshing, valuable perspectives rarely found elsewhere. Highly recommended! show less

Compelling read. As a Singaporean, Kishore Mahbubani has a unique perspective on China and the US, quite eye-opening from a Western perspective. Perhaps a bit too doting on Xi Jinping but can't knock the book itself, couldn't put it down.

Some very interesting analysis. He has quoted extensively from works by other authors (which I have already read) so there is a strong sense of deja vu. In several places he has given a really one sided opinion, especially in page 79. He states with some sense of wonder (I wonder why) that western nations are now totally incapable of waging war on each other, the possibility of war between them is nil.

He should have added a couple of points to this. Only two devastating world wars that cost show more the world 76 million lives (16m WWI, 60m, WWII) did they realize that slaughtering each other at this industrial scale is not a very good idea. The second point, like members of an old boys club the erstwhile cronies have decided to band together and export war to be waged by proxies and less developed countries by creating vast military industrial complexes that now manufacture these implements of death and export them and encourage their purchase in the name of deterrence and defense.

The author seems to be very partial to China (he is probably in their pay). He even goes to the extent of saying that they will take over the mantle of leader of the world from USA (I sincerely hope not). While he is waxing eloquent about China's successes on the economic front, he conveniently forgets to mention it's obvious chinks in the armor such as territorial disputes with every country it borders, encouragement of rogue regimes in Sudan and Zimbabwe, continued supression of Tibet and it's unwarranted and viscreal hatred of the Dalai Lama etc.

One interesting and right observation he has made is with regarding to a bridge between the East and West and which country is best suited to play that role. He has rightly identified India as the country that can play that role. Only an India who has drunk from the deep well of Indian Spirituality can make that statement. Even a few sips are enough to be imbued by the mystical and all encompassing spiritual experience whether you actually choose to live by these principles is another matter but the fact remains that anyone who has lived his childhood in India, these experiences are inescapable. So the foundation is laid for you to try and achieve this spiritual place and at the same time experience the material comforts this world has to offer without compromising on your basic principles. show less