SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19
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2margd
Why are children 'missing' from coronavirus outbreak cases?
Stephanie Pappas | Feb 10 2020
...The outbreak of a new coronavirus in China has killed more than 900 people, but one group has escaped with minimal damage: children.
Youth can certainly contract the virus. Among the infected are at least two newborns...But few children are among those sick enough to be diagnosed with the coronavirus*...According to the data analyzed in that article — and numbers are changing quickly as the outbreak evolves — the median age of patients skews older, between 49 and 56 years old.
It's not entirely clear why children seem to be escaping the worst effects of the virus, dubbed 2019-nCoV. But a similar pattern holds for many infectious diseases, from the familiar, such as chickenpox and measles, to the newly emerged, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), doctors say.
...Dr. Andrew Pavia, the chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at the University of Utah..."One hypothesis is that the innate immune response, that is the early response that is aimed broadly at groups of pathogens, tends to be more active" in children.
..(It may be) that kids might have healthier respiratory tracts because they've been exposed to less cigarette smoke and air pollution than adults... Another factor seems to be that kids are healthier in general, with fewer chronic health conditions
...Adults are also more susceptible to a detrimental immune response that causes a condition called acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)...A complicated imbalance of immune cell activity sends inflammation in the lungs into overdrive, ultimately causing fluid to fill the alveoli, or air sacs...The red blood cells flow into these alveoli to pick up new oxygen. When the sacs flood, they stop working. The person can no longer breathe. Studies suggest that about 40% of people with ARDS die...
https://www.livescience.com/why-kids-missing-coronavirus-cases.html
____________________________________________________________________
Carlos del Rio and Preeti N. Malani. 2020. 2019 Novel Coronavirus—Important Information for Clinicians
JAMA. Published online February 5, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1490 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2760782
...What interventions will ultimately control this outbreak is unclear because there is currently no vaccine, and the effectiveness of antivirals is unproven. However, basic public health measures such as staying home when ill, handwashing, and respiratory etiquette including covering the mouth and nose during sneezing and coughing were effective in controlling SARS. As a new outbreak confronts frontline clinicians and public health authorities, these groups must work together to educate the public by providing accurate and up-to-date information and by taking care of patients with respiratory illness in a timely and effective way.
Stephanie Pappas | Feb 10 2020
...The outbreak of a new coronavirus in China has killed more than 900 people, but one group has escaped with minimal damage: children.
Youth can certainly contract the virus. Among the infected are at least two newborns...But few children are among those sick enough to be diagnosed with the coronavirus*...According to the data analyzed in that article — and numbers are changing quickly as the outbreak evolves — the median age of patients skews older, between 49 and 56 years old.
It's not entirely clear why children seem to be escaping the worst effects of the virus, dubbed 2019-nCoV. But a similar pattern holds for many infectious diseases, from the familiar, such as chickenpox and measles, to the newly emerged, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), doctors say.
...Dr. Andrew Pavia, the chief of the Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at the University of Utah..."One hypothesis is that the innate immune response, that is the early response that is aimed broadly at groups of pathogens, tends to be more active" in children.
..(It may be) that kids might have healthier respiratory tracts because they've been exposed to less cigarette smoke and air pollution than adults... Another factor seems to be that kids are healthier in general, with fewer chronic health conditions
...Adults are also more susceptible to a detrimental immune response that causes a condition called acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS)...A complicated imbalance of immune cell activity sends inflammation in the lungs into overdrive, ultimately causing fluid to fill the alveoli, or air sacs...The red blood cells flow into these alveoli to pick up new oxygen. When the sacs flood, they stop working. The person can no longer breathe. Studies suggest that about 40% of people with ARDS die...
https://www.livescience.com/why-kids-missing-coronavirus-cases.html
____________________________________________________________________
Carlos del Rio and Preeti N. Malani. 2020. 2019 Novel Coronavirus—Important Information for Clinicians
JAMA. Published online February 5, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1490 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2760782
...What interventions will ultimately control this outbreak is unclear because there is currently no vaccine, and the effectiveness of antivirals is unproven. However, basic public health measures such as staying home when ill, handwashing, and respiratory etiquette including covering the mouth and nose during sneezing and coughing were effective in controlling SARS. As a new outbreak confronts frontline clinicians and public health authorities, these groups must work together to educate the public by providing accurate and up-to-date information and by taking care of patients with respiratory illness in a timely and effective way.
3margd
No Nation Can Fight Coronavirus on Its Own
Thomas Bollyky, Samantha Kiernan | February 12, 2020
...When family game night kept devolving into fights and hard feelings, the hobbyist game designer Matt Leacock set out to create a board game with a frightening antagonist that would unite even the most fiercely competitive players. After trying several alternatives, Leacock chose an unexpected motivator for cooperation: an emerging infectious disease outbreak. His game, Pandemic, is now a bestseller.
...Unfortunately, this 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak is not a game like Pandemic. It is deadly and real, but it provides the same lessons that Leacock identified. A frightening novel contagion is a cause for solidarity, not self-interested, unscientific travel safeguards or shameful speculation by U.S. government officials on the economic gains to be had from the misery of rivals. A global action plan is needed now to coordinate surveillance and case investigation in the current outbreak; to incentivize the development of vaccines and antiviral medications; and to invest in the international architecture needed to prevent, detect and respond to future outbreaks.
Perhaps a pandemic of novel coronavirus, if it occurs, would be a sufficiently frightening antagonist to force international cooperation, even at a moment that otherwise has proved inhospitable to global governance. If so, this novel coronavirus will do what climate change, tariff threats and the prospect of nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula could not: force nations to work together.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/no-nation-can-fight-coronavirus-its-own
Thomas Bollyky, Samantha Kiernan | February 12, 2020
...When family game night kept devolving into fights and hard feelings, the hobbyist game designer Matt Leacock set out to create a board game with a frightening antagonist that would unite even the most fiercely competitive players. After trying several alternatives, Leacock chose an unexpected motivator for cooperation: an emerging infectious disease outbreak. His game, Pandemic, is now a bestseller.
...Unfortunately, this 2019 novel coronavirus outbreak is not a game like Pandemic. It is deadly and real, but it provides the same lessons that Leacock identified. A frightening novel contagion is a cause for solidarity, not self-interested, unscientific travel safeguards or shameful speculation by U.S. government officials on the economic gains to be had from the misery of rivals. A global action plan is needed now to coordinate surveillance and case investigation in the current outbreak; to incentivize the development of vaccines and antiviral medications; and to invest in the international architecture needed to prevent, detect and respond to future outbreaks.
Perhaps a pandemic of novel coronavirus, if it occurs, would be a sufficiently frightening antagonist to force international cooperation, even at a moment that otherwise has proved inhospitable to global governance. If so, this novel coronavirus will do what climate change, tariff threats and the prospect of nuclear proliferation on the Korean peninsula could not: force nations to work together.
https://www.lawfareblog.com/no-nation-can-fight-coronavirus-its-own
4margd
When you spend billions developing the world's most advanced, extensive far-reaching facial recognition system
and everyone in your country has to wear a surgical mask
Image ( https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1229201845165416448/photo/1 )
- Jim Geraghty @jimgeraghty| 7:32 PM · Feb 16, 2020
and everyone in your country has to wear a surgical mask
Image ( https://twitter.com/jimgeraghty/status/1229201845165416448/photo/1 )
- Jim Geraghty @jimgeraghty| 7:32 PM · Feb 16, 2020
5margd
'Animals live for man': China's appetite for wildlife likely to survive virus
Farah Master, Sophie Yu | February 16, 2020
HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - For the past two weeks China’s police have been raiding houses, restaurants and makeshift markets across the country, arresting nearly 700 people for breaking the temporary ban on catching, selling or eating wild animals.
The scale of the crackdown, which has netted almost 40,000 animals including squirrels, weasels and boars, suggests that China’s taste for eating wildlife and using animal parts for medicinal purposes is not likely to disappear overnight, despite potential links to the new coronavirus.
...Scientists suspect, but have not proven, that the new coronavirus passed to humans from bats via pangolins, a small ant-eating mammal whose scales are highly prized in traditional Chinese medicine.
Some of the earliest infections were found in people who had exposure to Wuhan’s seafood market, where bats, snakes, civets and other wildlife were sold. China temporarily shut down all such markets in January, warning that eating wild animals posed a threat to public health and safety.
...The outbreak of the new coronavirus, which has killed more than 1,600 people in China, revived a debate in the country about the use of wildlife for food and medicine. It previously came to prominence in 2003 during the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which scientists believe was passed to humans from bats, via civets.
Many academics, environmentalists and residents in China have joined international conservation groups in calling for a permanent ban on trade in wildlife and closure of the markets where wild animals are sold.
...Animal products, from bear bile to pangolin scales, are still used in some traditional Chinese medicine, an industry China wants to expand as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
...The United Nations estimates the global illegal wildlife trade is worth about $23 billion a year. China is by far the largest market...
...coronavirus outbreak has in fact boosted some illegal wildlife trafficking as traders in China and Laos are selling rhinoceros horn medicines as a treatment to reduce fever.
China’s top legislature will toughen laws on wildlife trafficking this year, the official Xinhua news agency reported this week...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-wildlife/animals-live-for-man-ch...
________________________________________________________________________--
Bats For Sale at Indonesia Market Despite Coronavirus Warning (3:02)
VOA News • Feb 15, 2020
Bats and snakes are for sale at an Indonesia's market, Wednesday, February 12, despite a warning by the government to take the animals off the menu over fears of a link to the deadly coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_-rbv0tp2k
Farah Master, Sophie Yu | February 16, 2020
HONG KONG/BEIJING (Reuters) - For the past two weeks China’s police have been raiding houses, restaurants and makeshift markets across the country, arresting nearly 700 people for breaking the temporary ban on catching, selling or eating wild animals.
The scale of the crackdown, which has netted almost 40,000 animals including squirrels, weasels and boars, suggests that China’s taste for eating wildlife and using animal parts for medicinal purposes is not likely to disappear overnight, despite potential links to the new coronavirus.
...Scientists suspect, but have not proven, that the new coronavirus passed to humans from bats via pangolins, a small ant-eating mammal whose scales are highly prized in traditional Chinese medicine.
Some of the earliest infections were found in people who had exposure to Wuhan’s seafood market, where bats, snakes, civets and other wildlife were sold. China temporarily shut down all such markets in January, warning that eating wild animals posed a threat to public health and safety.
...The outbreak of the new coronavirus, which has killed more than 1,600 people in China, revived a debate in the country about the use of wildlife for food and medicine. It previously came to prominence in 2003 during the spread of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome), which scientists believe was passed to humans from bats, via civets.
Many academics, environmentalists and residents in China have joined international conservation groups in calling for a permanent ban on trade in wildlife and closure of the markets where wild animals are sold.
...Animal products, from bear bile to pangolin scales, are still used in some traditional Chinese medicine, an industry China wants to expand as part of its Belt and Road Initiative.
...The United Nations estimates the global illegal wildlife trade is worth about $23 billion a year. China is by far the largest market...
...coronavirus outbreak has in fact boosted some illegal wildlife trafficking as traders in China and Laos are selling rhinoceros horn medicines as a treatment to reduce fever.
China’s top legislature will toughen laws on wildlife trafficking this year, the official Xinhua news agency reported this week...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-wildlife/animals-live-for-man-ch...
________________________________________________________________________--
Bats For Sale at Indonesia Market Despite Coronavirus Warning (3:02)
VOA News • Feb 15, 2020
Bats and snakes are for sale at an Indonesia's market, Wednesday, February 12, despite a warning by the government to take the animals off the menu over fears of a link to the deadly coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B_-rbv0tp2k
6margd
How to travel safely in the wake of coronavirus and flu season (2:41)
Feb 17, 2020
Dr. Nick Testa, chief medical officer at Dignity Health in Los Angeles, recommends wiping down airplane trays, sitting in window seats, and eliminating small talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLpsJWGWR5k
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Maybe pack a few hard-to-find items in case you do pick up flu. Though vaxxed, DH did catch the flu and his fever broke day before we left FL...not a mask to be found in pharmacies, though his wearing one might have been useful to protect others on trip home...
Feb 17, 2020
Dr. Nick Testa, chief medical officer at Dignity Health in Los Angeles, recommends wiping down airplane trays, sitting in window seats, and eliminating small talk.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KLpsJWGWR5k
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Maybe pack a few hard-to-find items in case you do pick up flu. Though vaxxed, DH did catch the flu and his fever broke day before we left FL...not a mask to be found in pharmacies, though his wearing one might have been useful to protect others on trip home...
7margd
Coronavirus is more fatal in men than women, major study suggests
Chloe Taylor | Feb 18 2020
Key Points
The new strain of coronavirus sweeping across China has been more fatal in men than women, a new study claimed on Monday. (men: 2.8%. Women: 1.7%. Might be circumstance, not biology.)
Chinese researchers analyzed 72,314 patient records, making it the largest study on the outbreak to date.
Elderly people and those with pre-existing health conditions were most at risk of contracting a fatal case of COVID-19, researchers noted. (14.8% over the age of 80. 70-79 had an 8% fatality rate, while those aged 60-69 had a fatality rate of 3.6%.)...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-majo...
Chloe Taylor | Feb 18 2020
Key Points
The new strain of coronavirus sweeping across China has been more fatal in men than women, a new study claimed on Monday. (men: 2.8%. Women: 1.7%. Might be circumstance, not biology.)
Chinese researchers analyzed 72,314 patient records, making it the largest study on the outbreak to date.
Elderly people and those with pre-existing health conditions were most at risk of contracting a fatal case of COVID-19, researchers noted. (14.8% over the age of 80. 70-79 had an 8% fatality rate, while those aged 60-69 had a fatality rate of 3.6%.)...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/18/coronavirus-is-more-fatal-in-men-than-women-majo...
8margd
How long can the new coronavirus last on surfaces?
Yasemin Saplakoglu |2/18/2020
...if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces — such as metal, glass or plastic — for as long as nine days, according to a new study. (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.)
...human coronaviruses (other than the new coronavirus)...can linger on surfaces for over a week but that some of them don't remain active for as long at temperatures higher than 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). The authors also found that these coronaviruses can be effectively wiped away by household disinfectants...with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite (bleach) can "efficiently" inactivate coronaviruses within a minute.... "We expect a similar effect against the 2019-nCoV" ...
...The World Health Organization recommends alcohol-based hand rubs for decontamination of the hands, the authors wrote.
...the virus is most likely to spread from person to person through close contact and respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes that can land on a nearby person's mouth or nose...
https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Günter Kampf et al. 2020. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents. Journal of Hospital Infection. (In press.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.022 . https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltex...
Summary
Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, temporary named 2019-nCoV, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.
Yasemin Saplakoglu |2/18/2020
...if this new coronavirus resembles other human coronaviruses, such as its "cousins" that cause SARS and MERS, it can stay on surfaces — such as metal, glass or plastic — for as long as nine days, according to a new study. (In comparison, flu viruses can last on surfaces for only about 48 hours.)
...human coronaviruses (other than the new coronavirus)...can linger on surfaces for over a week but that some of them don't remain active for as long at temperatures higher than 86 degrees Fahrenheit (30 degrees Celsius). The authors also found that these coronaviruses can be effectively wiped away by household disinfectants...with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite (bleach) can "efficiently" inactivate coronaviruses within a minute.... "We expect a similar effect against the 2019-nCoV" ...
...The World Health Organization recommends alcohol-based hand rubs for decontamination of the hands, the authors wrote.
...the virus is most likely to spread from person to person through close contact and respiratory droplets from coughs and sneezes that can land on a nearby person's mouth or nose...
https://www.livescience.com/how-long-coronavirus-last-surfaces.html
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Günter Kampf et al. 2020. Persistence of coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces and its inactivation with biocidal agents. Journal of Hospital Infection. (In press.) DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhin.2020.01.022 . https://www.journalofhospitalinfection.com/article/S0195-6701(20)30046-3/fulltex...
Summary
Currently, the emergence of a novel human coronavirus, temporary named 2019-nCoV, has become a global health concern causing severe respiratory tract infections in humans. Human-to-human transmissions have been described with incubation times between 2-10 days, facilitating its spread via droplets, contaminated hands or surfaces. We therefore reviewed the literature on all available information about the persistence of human and veterinary coronaviruses on inanimate surfaces as well as inactivation strategies with biocidal agents used for chemical disinfection, e.g. in healthcare facilities. The analysis of 22 studies reveals that human coronaviruses such as Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) coronavirus, Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) coronavirus or endemic human coronaviruses (HCoV) can persist on inanimate surfaces like metal, glass or plastic for up to 9 days, but can be efficiently inactivated by surface disinfection procedures with 62-71% ethanol, 0.5% hydrogen peroxide or 0.1% sodium hypochlorite within 1 minute. Other biocidal agents such as 0.05-0.2% benzalkonium chloride or 0.02% chlorhexidine digluconate are less effective. As no specific therapies are available for 2019-nCoV, early containment and prevention of further spread will be crucial to stop the ongoing outbreak and to control this novel infectious thread.
9margd
Hang in there, madpoet!
Coronavirus 'spike' protein just mapped, leading way to vaccine (and meds??)
Yasemin Saplakoglu - 2/19/2020
Researchers worldwide are racing to develop potential vaccines and drugs to fight the new coronavirus, called SARS-Cov-2. Now, a group of researchers has figured out the molecular structure of a key protein that the coronavirus uses to invade human cells*, potentially opening the door to the development of a vaccine, according to new findings.
Previous research revealed that coronaviruses invade cells through so-called "spike" proteins, but those proteins take on different shapes in different coronaviruses. Figuring out the shape of the spike protein in SARS-Cov-2 is the key to figuring out how to target the virus, said Jason McLellan, senior author of the study and an associate professor of molecular biosciences at the University of Texas at Austin.
Though the coronavirus uses many different proteins to replicate and invade cells, the spike protein is the major surface protein that it uses to bind to a receptor — another protein that acts like a doorway into a human cell. After the spike protein binds to the human cell receptor, the viral membrane fuses with the human cell membrane, allowing the genome of the virus to enter human cells and begin infection. So "if you can prevent attachment and fusion, you will prevent entry," McLellan told Live Science. But to target this protein, you need to know what it looks like.
...The team is sending these atomic "coordinates" to dozens of research groups around the world who are working to develop vaccines and drugs to target SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, McLellan and his team hope to use the map of the spike protein as the basis for a vaccine.
..."the molecule looks really good; it's really well behaved; the structure kind of demonstrates that the molecule is stable in the correct confirmation that we were hoping for," McLellan said. "So now we and others will use the molecule that we created as a basis for vaccine antigen." Their colleagues at the NIH will now inject these spike proteins into animals to see how well the proteins trigger antibody production.
Still, McLellan thinks a vaccine is likely about 18 to 24 months away. That's "still quite fast compared to normal vaccine development, which might take like 10 years," he said. ...
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-spike-protein-structure.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Wrapp et al. 2020. Cryo-EM structure of the 2019-nCoV spike in the prefusion conformation. Science 19 Feb 2020:eabb2507
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb2507 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/02/19/science.abb2507/tab-pdf
Coronavirus 'spike' protein just mapped, leading way to vaccine (and meds??)
Yasemin Saplakoglu - 2/19/2020
Researchers worldwide are racing to develop potential vaccines and drugs to fight the new coronavirus, called SARS-Cov-2. Now, a group of researchers has figured out the molecular structure of a key protein that the coronavirus uses to invade human cells*, potentially opening the door to the development of a vaccine, according to new findings.
Previous research revealed that coronaviruses invade cells through so-called "spike" proteins, but those proteins take on different shapes in different coronaviruses. Figuring out the shape of the spike protein in SARS-Cov-2 is the key to figuring out how to target the virus, said Jason McLellan, senior author of the study and an associate professor of molecular biosciences at the University of Texas at Austin.
Though the coronavirus uses many different proteins to replicate and invade cells, the spike protein is the major surface protein that it uses to bind to a receptor — another protein that acts like a doorway into a human cell. After the spike protein binds to the human cell receptor, the viral membrane fuses with the human cell membrane, allowing the genome of the virus to enter human cells and begin infection. So "if you can prevent attachment and fusion, you will prevent entry," McLellan told Live Science. But to target this protein, you need to know what it looks like.
...The team is sending these atomic "coordinates" to dozens of research groups around the world who are working to develop vaccines and drugs to target SARS-CoV-2. Meanwhile, McLellan and his team hope to use the map of the spike protein as the basis for a vaccine.
..."the molecule looks really good; it's really well behaved; the structure kind of demonstrates that the molecule is stable in the correct confirmation that we were hoping for," McLellan said. "So now we and others will use the molecule that we created as a basis for vaccine antigen." Their colleagues at the NIH will now inject these spike proteins into animals to see how well the proteins trigger antibody production.
Still, McLellan thinks a vaccine is likely about 18 to 24 months away. That's "still quite fast compared to normal vaccine development, which might take like 10 years," he said. ...
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-spike-protein-structure.html
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Wrapp et al. 2020. Cryo-EM structure of the 2019-nCoV spike in the prefusion conformation. Science 19 Feb 2020:eabb2507
DOI: 10.1126/science.abb2507 https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/02/19/science.abb2507/tab-pdf
10margd
Coronavirus-infected Americans flown home against CDC’s advice
Lena H. Sun, Lenny Bernstein, Shibani Mahtani and Joel Achenbach | Feb. 20, 2020
...The State Department and a top Trump administration health official wanted to forge ahead. The (~14) infected passengers had no symptoms and could be segregated on the plane in a plastic-lined enclosure. But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disagreed, contending they could still spread the virus. The CDC believed the 14 should not be flown back with uninfected passengers (~314).
...The State Department won the argument. But unhappy CDC officials demanded to be left out of the news release that explained that infected people were being flown back to the United States — a move that would nearly double the number of known coronavirus cases in this country.
...As the State Department drafted its news release, the CDC’s top officials insisted that any mention of the agency be removed.
“CDC did weigh in on this and explicitly recommended against it,” Schuchat wrote on behalf of the officials, according to an HHS official who saw the email and shared the language. “We should not be mentioned as having been consulted as it begs the question of what was our advice.”
She wrote that the infected passengers could pose “an increased risk to the other passengers.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-americ...
Image (https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1230675095426871298/photo/1)
Lena H. Sun, Lenny Bernstein, Shibani Mahtani and Joel Achenbach | Feb. 20, 2020
...The State Department and a top Trump administration health official wanted to forge ahead. The (~14) infected passengers had no symptoms and could be segregated on the plane in a plastic-lined enclosure. But officials at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention disagreed, contending they could still spread the virus. The CDC believed the 14 should not be flown back with uninfected passengers (~314).
...The State Department won the argument. But unhappy CDC officials demanded to be left out of the news release that explained that infected people were being flown back to the United States — a move that would nearly double the number of known coronavirus cases in this country.
...As the State Department drafted its news release, the CDC’s top officials insisted that any mention of the agency be removed.
“CDC did weigh in on this and explicitly recommended against it,” Schuchat wrote on behalf of the officials, according to an HHS official who saw the email and shared the language. “We should not be mentioned as having been consulted as it begs the question of what was our advice.”
She wrote that the infected passengers could pose “an increased risk to the other passengers.”...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/coronavirus-diamond-princess-cruise-americ...
Image (https://twitter.com/nycjim/status/1230675095426871298/photo/1)
11timspalding
The Coronavirus media cycle is strange—panic when it isn't called for, but limited coverage now, when things are getting really scary.
My concern is Iran. They recently discovered it had cases, when two people *died*. Neither had Chinese connections, and the two facts together imply considerable spread. Cases are now coming in fast—13 today. Some in Qom, which is a pilgrimage site, some in Tehran.
I may be extra concerned because I'm going to Turkey soon, and Turkey borders Iran. But after thinking the world might contain this, it looks increasingly like it's simply going to "get out" and become a generalized, worldwide problem, or even a permanent fixture of the landscape. That's millions dead, not to mention massive global disruption.
My concern is Iran. They recently discovered it had cases, when two people *died*. Neither had Chinese connections, and the two facts together imply considerable spread. Cases are now coming in fast—13 today. Some in Qom, which is a pilgrimage site, some in Tehran.
I may be extra concerned because I'm going to Turkey soon, and Turkey borders Iran. But after thinking the world might contain this, it looks increasingly like it's simply going to "get out" and become a generalized, worldwide problem, or even a permanent fixture of the landscape. That's millions dead, not to mention massive global disruption.
12davidgn
>11 timspalding: Probably best to carry a modest quantity of (appropriately sized) N95 masks with you, as they tend to become unobtainable when/where they're most needed. Supply is intermittent in Stateside brick and mortars. Managed to source a small supply here for a reasonable price online by purchasing a less recognized brand (Inovel), which might come in handy in a few months. That source has now dried up, though.
Bring some Bocaccio, too.
Bring some Bocaccio, too.
13RickHarsch
A recent study based on two mathematical models was done in a university near here and sent--without English editing--to Yale, where it was immediately accepted and the twittering began before official publication. This is not anything I know much about, but according to this model, which is based on numbers and only numbers, the total deaths will amount to just under 100,000.
(I went to help a maritime professor with English and when I arrived he was laughing, and he had this guy's study up on his computer. He was laughing because the professor teaches physics and mathematics, and presumably knows nothing about medicine. When he filled out whatever form required to submit, he left the type of medicine he works in blank, of course.)
(I went to help a maritime professor with English and when I arrived he was laughing, and he had this guy's study up on his computer. He was laughing because the professor teaches physics and mathematics, and presumably knows nothing about medicine. When he filled out whatever form required to submit, he left the type of medicine he works in blank, of course.)
14davidgn
>12 davidgn: In case anyone wants a bread trail.
https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/top-suppliers/surgical-mask-manufacturer-supp...
Here's a list of all the CDC-approved suppliers, with links to more comprehensive supplier listings.
(And via the CDC, here's the NIOSH-approved suppliers: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/n95list1.html )
https://www.thomasnet.com/articles/top-suppliers/surgical-mask-manufacturer-supp...
Here's a list of all the CDC-approved suppliers, with links to more comprehensive supplier listings.
(And via the CDC, here's the NIOSH-approved suppliers: https://www.cdc.gov/niosh/npptl/topics/respirators/disp_part/n95list1.html )
15margd
>11 timspalding: Hopefully it will be warm for your trip--86F! I doubt Corona will take hold here in US before summer. Maybe next winter.
Some evidence that elderberry minimizes course of flu virus and secondary bacterial infections in lungs. Three sickos in my family asked for it regularly during their illnesses, which isn't like the guys to stick with anything I offer.
Get lots of sleep, stay hydrated and eat healthy.
Some evidence that elderberry minimizes course of flu virus and secondary bacterial infections in lungs. Three sickos in my family asked for it regularly during their illnesses, which isn't like the guys to stick with anything I offer.
Get lots of sleep, stay hydrated and eat healthy.
16John5918
Chinese middlemen are stockpiling facemasks from Kenya and Tanzania for export to China (Quartz Africa)
In Nairobi’s Kilimani district the upper floor of a typically quiet medical supply shop is hectic with Chinese customers ordering face masks for export...
in an effort to meet ramped up demand, enterprising middlemen are now turning to African nations where a relatively limited supply of masks are made...
At the Nairobi supplier where thermometer guns are being prepared for export back to China one worker notes: “What will happen if corona comes to Kenya? There’s nothing left for us…”
In Nairobi’s Kilimani district the upper floor of a typically quiet medical supply shop is hectic with Chinese customers ordering face masks for export...
in an effort to meet ramped up demand, enterprising middlemen are now turning to African nations where a relatively limited supply of masks are made...
At the Nairobi supplier where thermometer guns are being prepared for export back to China one worker notes: “What will happen if corona comes to Kenya? There’s nothing left for us…”
17timspalding
The two resources I check every day:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3fnhv...
Also of interest, the last WHO press conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAPKonW_CNk&feature=youtu.be&t=262
More and more, I think this is simply going to get out—we'll get community across many countries in a matter of months.
It's worth thinking about what this causes. A global recession. And I'm guessing Trump runs with it wherever he can. Closes the borders. Exercises sweeping powers.
Political effects? It will help Trump. Period. If pandemic awareness happens soon enough, it will drive Democrats towards experience and safety. If they don't, that may prove a problem. The nation is not going be in the grip of a deadly and disruptive epidemic and elect the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Bring some Bocaccio, too.
Ha. I just said that to my wife.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html?fbclid=IwAR3fnhv...
Also of interest, the last WHO press conference https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KAPKonW_CNk&feature=youtu.be&t=262
More and more, I think this is simply going to get out—we'll get community across many countries in a matter of months.
It's worth thinking about what this causes. A global recession. And I'm guessing Trump runs with it wherever he can. Closes the borders. Exercises sweeping powers.
Political effects? It will help Trump. Period. If pandemic awareness happens soon enough, it will drive Democrats towards experience and safety. If they don't, that may prove a problem. The nation is not going be in the grip of a deadly and disruptive epidemic and elect the mayor of South Bend, Indiana.
Bring some Bocaccio, too.
Ha. I just said that to my wife.
18margd
>10 margd: >17 timspalding:
The great orange, election-obsessed, germ & science-phobe--he who cut funding for global health program (ETA: no friend of ACA)--asserts himself on Covid-19:
Narcissism 1. Empathy 0.
Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship
Yasmeen Abutaleb and Josh Dawsey | Feb. 21, 2020 at 9:46 p.m. EST
...Trump has since had several calls with top White House officials to say he should have been told, that it should have been his decision and that he did not agree with the decision that was made...
....Trump has remained uncharacteristically restrained in his public comments about the coronavirus outbreak, which has spread to more than two dozen countries and infected more than 75,000 people, the vast majority of whom are in China. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Trump, then a private citizen, called for the United States to shut its borders and said American doctors who had become infected with the disease while treating patients should not be allowed back into the country for treatment.
“The U.S. must immediately stop all flights from EBOLA infected countries or the plague will start and spread inside our ‘borders.’ Act fast!” Trump wrote.
Yet Trump also remains concerned that any large-scale outbreak in the United States could hurt his 2020 presidential reelection bid. He has also been unwilling to criticize China’s response to the outbreak despite some of his advisers pushing for a tougher stance, and has worried that any further drastic action by his administration could further spook the markets and hurt the economy in an election year.
Administration officials are concerned that they might not be able to quarantine large numbers of people in the United States if a pandemic breaks out. There have been at least 10 meetings on quarantines in the past two weeks, administration officials said...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-was-not-told-coronavirus-infected-...
The great orange, election-obsessed, germ & science-phobe--he who cut funding for global health program (ETA: no friend of ACA)--asserts himself on Covid-19:
Narcissism 1. Empathy 0.
Trump was not told coronavirus-infected Americans would be flown home from cruise ship
Yasmeen Abutaleb and Josh Dawsey | Feb. 21, 2020 at 9:46 p.m. EST
...Trump has since had several calls with top White House officials to say he should have been told, that it should have been his decision and that he did not agree with the decision that was made...
....Trump has remained uncharacteristically restrained in his public comments about the coronavirus outbreak, which has spread to more than two dozen countries and infected more than 75,000 people, the vast majority of whom are in China. During the 2014 Ebola outbreak, Trump, then a private citizen, called for the United States to shut its borders and said American doctors who had become infected with the disease while treating patients should not be allowed back into the country for treatment.
“The U.S. must immediately stop all flights from EBOLA infected countries or the plague will start and spread inside our ‘borders.’ Act fast!” Trump wrote.
Yet Trump also remains concerned that any large-scale outbreak in the United States could hurt his 2020 presidential reelection bid. He has also been unwilling to criticize China’s response to the outbreak despite some of his advisers pushing for a tougher stance, and has worried that any further drastic action by his administration could further spook the markets and hurt the economy in an election year.
Administration officials are concerned that they might not be able to quarantine large numbers of people in the United States if a pandemic breaks out. There have been at least 10 meetings on quarantines in the past two weeks, administration officials said...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-was-not-told-coronavirus-infected-...
19margd
Chinese bio warfare lab is near Wuhan, so there's rumor about that Covid-19 is escapee--much like rumor that Lyme spirochaete escaped from US's Plum Island facility. So now, of course, we learn that there was a science fiction novel about a Wuhan-400 escapee from Chinese facility: The Eyes of Darkness by Dean Koontz. (Earlier version attributed the bug to Russians: Gorki-400)
(As a teenager, I lived on a Canadian military base with a chem and biowarfare building. I remember thinking how strange that building's use is plainly given on its sign and also that it looked awfully insecure for that purpose, so I assumed it contained paper at worst. Still, stuff happens: as undergrad, I remember thinking that anthrax in my microscope slide must be dead--surely they wouldn't give undergrads access to anthrax! Years later, it was minor scandal that, yes, the anthrax we had been handling WAS live.)
Was Coronavirus Predicted in a 1981 Dean Koontz Novel?
Dan Evon | 18 February 2020
Claim
Author Dean Koontz predicted the 2020 new coronavirus outbreak in his 1981 novel "The Eyes of Darkness."
Rating
Mostly False
What's True
An image shows a genuine page from Dean Koontz's novel "The Eyes of Darkness" containing the words "Wuhan-400."
What's False
However, Dean Koontz did not predict an outbreak of a new coronavirus. Other than the name, this fictional biological weapon has little in common with the virus that caused an outbreak in 2020...
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean-koontz-predicted-coronavirus/
(As a teenager, I lived on a Canadian military base with a chem and biowarfare building. I remember thinking how strange that building's use is plainly given on its sign and also that it looked awfully insecure for that purpose, so I assumed it contained paper at worst. Still, stuff happens: as undergrad, I remember thinking that anthrax in my microscope slide must be dead--surely they wouldn't give undergrads access to anthrax! Years later, it was minor scandal that, yes, the anthrax we had been handling WAS live.)
Was Coronavirus Predicted in a 1981 Dean Koontz Novel?
Dan Evon | 18 February 2020
Claim
Author Dean Koontz predicted the 2020 new coronavirus outbreak in his 1981 novel "The Eyes of Darkness."
Rating
Mostly False
What's True
An image shows a genuine page from Dean Koontz's novel "The Eyes of Darkness" containing the words "Wuhan-400."
What's False
However, Dean Koontz did not predict an outbreak of a new coronavirus. Other than the name, this fictional biological weapon has little in common with the virus that caused an outbreak in 2020...
https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/dean-koontz-predicted-coronavirus/
20davidgn
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vWJBJq-tVsc
Martenson points to some potentially troubling issues surfacing in the Italian (very high fraction of serious cases) and South Korean (1 day case doubling time) data. Best hope is the Italians have a lower threshold for "serious" and that the Koreans are just being extremely zealous about testing and detection. For comparison, a modeling study out of Los Alamos projected an R0 of 4.7-6.6 with a doubling time of 2.4 days (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf) Also concerns about Iran.
Haven't yet watched the whole thing.
Martenson points to some potentially troubling issues surfacing in the Italian (very high fraction of serious cases) and South Korean (1 day case doubling time) data. Best hope is the Italians have a lower threshold for "serious" and that the Koreans are just being extremely zealous about testing and detection. For comparison, a modeling study out of Los Alamos projected an R0 of 4.7-6.6 with a doubling time of 2.4 days (https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.02.07.20021154v1.full.pdf) Also concerns about Iran.
Haven't yet watched the whole thing.
21margd
‘The disruption is enormous.’ Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide
Robert F. Service | Feb. 17, 2020 , 4:35 PM
...Drug stockpiles may run out
Concern is also rising that the availability of medicines could soon face disruptions worldwide. An estimated 80% of all active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs)—the raw materials for drugs—are produced in China and India, according to recent testimony by Rosemarie Gibson, author of China Rx, before the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington, D.C. They include the compounds used to treat everything from bacterial infections and cancer to heart disease and diabetes. With many factories in China still shuttered, stockpiles of many medicines could soon run short.
“This is a very acute issue now,” says Michael Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. Osterholm notes there are 153 medicines people need immediate access to in life-threatening situations. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, overreliance on a small group of suppliers caused shortages of dozens of medicines every day, Osterholm says: “These supply chains are very thin.”
But Mariângela Simão, assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products at WHO, says she and her colleagues are not yet seeing signs that COVID-19 has affected supplies of essential medicines. Simão’s team is in daily contact with international pharmaceutical associations that are tracking shipping disruptions from their member companies. “The information we have so far is there is no immediate risk regarding APIs,” Simão says.
Part of the reason, she adds, is that many companies stockpiled 2 to 4 months of their products prior to the Lunar New Year celebrations, when many factories close. And although Hubei is home to some pharmaceutical companies, far more are in Shanghai and other parts of China that are less affected. That said, Simão notes, disruptions could still occur if the virus isn’t brought under control. “It will all depend on how the situations evolve with the outbreak.”
That sense of uncertainty about what’s in store is perhaps the most widespread concern in China and across the globe...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/disruption-enormous-coronavirus-epidemic...
Robert F. Service | Feb. 17, 2020 , 4:35 PM
...Drug stockpiles may run out
Concern is also rising that the availability of medicines could soon face disruptions worldwide. An estimated 80% of all active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs)—the raw materials for drugs—are produced in China and India, according to recent testimony by Rosemarie Gibson, author of China Rx, before the United States-China Economic and Security Review Commission in Washington, D.C. They include the compounds used to treat everything from bacterial infections and cancer to heart disease and diabetes. With many factories in China still shuttered, stockpiles of many medicines could soon run short.
“This is a very acute issue now,” says Michael Osterholm, who heads the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis. Osterholm notes there are 153 medicines people need immediate access to in life-threatening situations. Even before the coronavirus outbreak, overreliance on a small group of suppliers caused shortages of dozens of medicines every day, Osterholm says: “These supply chains are very thin.”
But Mariângela Simão, assistant director-general for access to medicines and health products at WHO, says she and her colleagues are not yet seeing signs that COVID-19 has affected supplies of essential medicines. Simão’s team is in daily contact with international pharmaceutical associations that are tracking shipping disruptions from their member companies. “The information we have so far is there is no immediate risk regarding APIs,” Simão says.
Part of the reason, she adds, is that many companies stockpiled 2 to 4 months of their products prior to the Lunar New Year celebrations, when many factories close. And although Hubei is home to some pharmaceutical companies, far more are in Shanghai and other parts of China that are less affected. That said, Simão notes, disruptions could still occur if the virus isn’t brought under control. “It will all depend on how the situations evolve with the outbreak.”
That sense of uncertainty about what’s in store is perhaps the most widespread concern in China and across the globe...
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/02/disruption-enormous-coronavirus-epidemic...
22margd
A day-by-day breakdown of coronavirus symptoms shows how the disease, COVID-19, goes from bad to worse
Aria Bendix | Feb 22, 2020
...around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill.
Here's how symptoms (signs?) progress among typical patients:
Day 1: Patients run a fever. They may also experience fatigue, muscle pain, and a dry cough. A small minority of them may have had diarrhea or nausea one to two days before.
Day 5: Patients may have difficulty breathing — especially if they are older or have a preexisting health condition.
Day 7: This is how long it takes, on average, before patients are admitted to a hospital, according to the Wuhan University study.
Day 8: At this point, patients with severe cases (15%, according to the Chinese CDC) develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), an illness that occurs when fluid builds up the lungs. ARDS is often fatal.
Day 10: If patients have worsening symptoms, this is the time in the disease's progression when they're most likely to be admitted to the ICU. These patients probably have more abdominal pain and appetite loss than patients with milder cases. Only a small fraction die: The current fatality rate hovers around 2%.
Day 17: On average, people who recover from the virus are discharged from the hospital after two-and-a-half weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients...
Dawei Wang et al. 2020. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan. JAMA. Published online February 7, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1585 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
________________________________________________________
Nanshan Chen et al. 2020. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
The Lancet Volume 395, ISSUE 10223, P507-513, February 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fullt...
( Published:January 30, 2020 )
...Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR ( Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction ). 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 83% patients), cough (81 82% patients), shortness of breath (31 31% patients), muscle ache (11 11% patients), confusion (nine 9% patients), headache (eight 8% patients), sore throat (five 5% patients), rhinorrhoea (four 4% patients), chest pain (two 2% patients), diarrhoea (two 2% patients), and nausea and vomiting (one 1% patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity,* and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure...
________________________________________________________
* China is diagnosing coronavirus patients by looking for 'ground glass' (opacity) in their lungs. Take a look at the CT scans.
Aria Bendix | Feb 13, 2020
..."It kind of looks like faint glass that has been ground up," Paras Lakhani, a radiologist at Thomas Jefferson University...."What it represents is fluid in the lung spaces....You can see it with all types of infections — bacterial, viral, or sometimes even non-infectious causes...Even vaping could sometimes appear this way."
But the patches are significant, he added, when they extend to the edges of the patient's lungs....
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-...
Aria Bendix | Feb 22, 2020
...around 80% of coronavirus cases are mild. Around 15% of patients have gotten severe cases, and 5% have become critically ill.
Here's how symptoms (signs?) progress among typical patients:
Day 1: Patients run a fever. They may also experience fatigue, muscle pain, and a dry cough. A small minority of them may have had diarrhea or nausea one to two days before.
Day 5: Patients may have difficulty breathing — especially if they are older or have a preexisting health condition.
Day 7: This is how long it takes, on average, before patients are admitted to a hospital, according to the Wuhan University study.
Day 8: At this point, patients with severe cases (15%, according to the Chinese CDC) develop acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), an illness that occurs when fluid builds up the lungs. ARDS is often fatal.
Day 10: If patients have worsening symptoms, this is the time in the disease's progression when they're most likely to be admitted to the ICU. These patients probably have more abdominal pain and appetite loss than patients with milder cases. Only a small fraction die: The current fatality rate hovers around 2%.
Day 17: On average, people who recover from the virus are discharged from the hospital after two-and-a-half weeks.
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-covid19-day-by-day-symptoms-patients...
Dawei Wang et al. 2020. Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan. JAMA. Published online February 7, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.1585 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044
________________________________________________________
Nanshan Chen et al. 2020. Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of 99 cases of 2019 novel coronavirus pneumonia in Wuhan, China: a descriptive study
The Lancet Volume 395, ISSUE 10223, P507-513, February 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(20)30211-7
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30211-7/fullt...
( Published:January 30, 2020 )
...Findings
Of the 99 patients with 2019-nCoV pneumonia, 49 (49%) had a history of exposure to the Huanan seafood market. The average age of the patients was 55·5 years (SD 13·1), including 67 men and 32 women. 2019-nCoV was detected in all patients by real-time RT-PCR ( Reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction ). 50 (51%) patients had chronic diseases. Patients had clinical manifestations of fever (82 83% patients), cough (81 82% patients), shortness of breath (31 31% patients), muscle ache (11 11% patients), confusion (nine 9% patients), headache (eight 8% patients), sore throat (five 5% patients), rhinorrhoea (four 4% patients), chest pain (two 2% patients), diarrhoea (two 2% patients), and nausea and vomiting (one 1% patient). According to imaging examination, 74 (75%) patients showed bilateral pneumonia, 14 (14%) patients showed multiple mottling and ground-glass opacity,* and one (1%) patient had pneumothorax. 17 (17%) patients developed acute respiratory distress syndrome and, among them, 11 (11%) patients worsened in a short period of time and died of multiple organ failure...
________________________________________________________
* China is diagnosing coronavirus patients by looking for 'ground glass' (opacity) in their lungs. Take a look at the CT scans.
Aria Bendix | Feb 13, 2020
..."It kind of looks like faint glass that has been ground up," Paras Lakhani, a radiologist at Thomas Jefferson University...."What it represents is fluid in the lung spaces....You can see it with all types of infections — bacterial, viral, or sometimes even non-infectious causes...Even vaping could sometimes appear this way."
But the patches are significant, he added, when they extend to the edges of the patient's lungs....
https://www.businessinsider.com/china-coronavirus-diagnosis-ct-scans-lungs-2020-...
23davidgn
One of my favorite YouTubers, known for his medical case studies, has put out a COVID-19 episode based on three Chinese case reports.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0A0LyMru3I
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q0A0LyMru3I
24davidgn
Martenson's latest: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GuBB3GNGQIk
Among other things, he reiterates something I haven't mentioned: repeated confirmations of aerosolized transmission means eye protection (infection control goggles) is also important, along with N95 mask.
A timely datasheet from 3M has some suggestions.
https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/576928O/tech-data-bulletin-192-eye-protectio...
One example:
https://www.amazon.com/3M-Centurion-Safety-Splash-40304-00000-10/dp/B007JZ2K2U/
Most important part besides introduction is slate of bullet points here: https://youtu.be/GuBB3GNGQIk?t=1559
This ain't no flu. The photos of bare supermarket shelves around Milan drive it home. For the rest of the world not yet at a crisis point, the time to prepare (not panic, but prepare) is now.
Among other things, he reiterates something I haven't mentioned: repeated confirmations of aerosolized transmission means eye protection (infection control goggles) is also important, along with N95 mask.
A timely datasheet from 3M has some suggestions.
https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/576928O/tech-data-bulletin-192-eye-protectio...
One example:
https://www.amazon.com/3M-Centurion-Safety-Splash-40304-00000-10/dp/B007JZ2K2U/
Most important part besides introduction is slate of bullet points here: https://youtu.be/GuBB3GNGQIk?t=1559
This ain't no flu. The photos of bare supermarket shelves around Milan drive it home. For the rest of the world not yet at a crisis point, the time to prepare (not panic, but prepare) is now.
25davidgn
Also recommend watching the UK's Dr. John Campbell (cf. https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnscottlewinski/2020/02/07/uk-doctor-uses-youtube...
He's coming out today with a strident call for the WHO to declare a pandemic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02TwdiRUJTA
Based on Iranian contacts, he furthermore believes the rate of severe cases and death there is unusually high and fears a possible mutated strain locally.
Also appreciate the British humor. (There are no cases in Indonesia. Well, of course there aren't. There aren't any test kits!)
He's coming out today with a strident call for the WHO to declare a pandemic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=02TwdiRUJTA
Based on Iranian contacts, he furthermore believes the rate of severe cases and death there is unusually high and fears a possible mutated strain locally.
Also appreciate the British humor. (There are no cases in Indonesia. Well, of course there aren't. There aren't any test kits!)
26John5918
Even Without a Case, Africa May Be a Big Victim of Coronavirus (Bloomberg)
Even without a single confirmed case, sub-Saharan Africa may be the region hardest hit outside of Asia by the spread of the coronavirus. The outbreak has shut down entire swathes of the Chinese economy, threatening world economic growth and curbing appetite for oil and metals that are the lifeline of many African nations. A slowdown in the No. 2 economy and a 5% drop in oil prices over one year could mean $4 billion in lost export revenue for sub-Saharan Africa, or the equivalent to 0.3% of its gross domestic product -- more than any other continent outside of Asia, according to a study by the Overseas Development Institute...
Even without a single confirmed case, sub-Saharan Africa may be the region hardest hit outside of Asia by the spread of the coronavirus. The outbreak has shut down entire swathes of the Chinese economy, threatening world economic growth and curbing appetite for oil and metals that are the lifeline of many African nations. A slowdown in the No. 2 economy and a 5% drop in oil prices over one year could mean $4 billion in lost export revenue for sub-Saharan Africa, or the equivalent to 0.3% of its gross domestic product -- more than any other continent outside of Asia, according to a study by the Overseas Development Institute...
27margd
Annoying slide-show format, but interesting to compare global mortality rates of Covid-19 (~2%) with other infectious diseases (e.g., measles 1.46%). The others are mostly rare or preventable/manageable--as hopefully Covid-19 will be in time-- but surprising number of extremely deadly pathogens, and not just in exotic places: https://www.cbsnews.com/pictures/deadly-diseases-infectious-world-ranked/
Reminded me of classic paper on risk perception, e.g., humans are more likely to fear plane crash (rare, but spectacular) than collision on drive to the airport (more common, diffuse effects): the latter is perceived as more under one's control. (Table 1 and Figure 1 are worth perusing: http://socsci2.ucsd.edu/~aronatas/project/academic/risk%20slovic.pdf )
P Slovic. 1987. Perception of risk. Science 17 Apr 1987: Vol. 236, Issue 4799, pp. 280-285
DOI: 10.1126/science.3563507 http://socsci2.ucsd.edu/~aronatas/project/academic/risk%20slovic.pdf
Abstract
Studies of risk perception examine the judgements people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers. This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.
Reminded me of classic paper on risk perception, e.g., humans are more likely to fear plane crash (rare, but spectacular) than collision on drive to the airport (more common, diffuse effects): the latter is perceived as more under one's control. (Table 1 and Figure 1 are worth perusing: http://socsci2.ucsd.edu/~aronatas/project/academic/risk%20slovic.pdf )
P Slovic. 1987. Perception of risk. Science 17 Apr 1987: Vol. 236, Issue 4799, pp. 280-285
DOI: 10.1126/science.3563507 http://socsci2.ucsd.edu/~aronatas/project/academic/risk%20slovic.pdf
Abstract
Studies of risk perception examine the judgements people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers. This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.
28RickHarsch
Schools in Trieste among those closed. No sports in Italy. All this until at least March 1. My son's team is stationed in Bisiaca, a little wedge between Trieste and Friuli. No cases in this area yet.
30davidgn
>29 margd: Indeed. Take care.
31davidgn
Dr. Campbell's briefing for the day. News from Iran terrible.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C-NpadSNuA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1C-NpadSNuA
32RickHarsch
Thanks. Oddly, coincidentally, my wife spent a week in Bergamo, which is in Lombardy, for the first time, returning home 6 days ago. She was in Milan for a few hours. She was staying with a friend from here who had an apartment for a month for academic purposes. Anyway, of course she developed a cold a couple days after she returned, but it went away quickly. Both kids have colds now. But the odds of her having contracted this virus are miniscule. No cases have been reported in Bergamo, and even Milan hasn't had that many cases. It seems Italy is handling it well, staying on the safe side. The nearest case to Trieste so far detected is over 100 kilometres away, but there's a lot of travel within the north, so closing schools seems a fair enough response. I think we'll know in a couple of days if they've got it contained.
33margd
This would be a really good time for Congress to believe Trump won't just spend this on a wall and to believe that Administration is competent.
Trump asking Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus: White House
Reuters | February 24, 2020
The Trump administration is sending to the U.S. Congress a budget request for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus, the White House said on Monday.
More than $1 billion of the money would go toward developing a vaccine, the White House said.
“Today, the Administration is transmitting to Congress a $2.5 billion supplemental funding plan to accelerate vaccine development, support preparedness and response activities and to procure much needed equipment and supplies,” Rachel Semmel, a spokeswoman for the White House Office of Management and Budget, said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa-budget/trump-asking-congress...
____________________________________________________________________
Judd Legum @JuddLegum | 4:11 PM · Feb 24, 2020:
1. With the coronavirus killing thousands and threatening to tank the global economy, I feel like more people should be talking about the fact that Trump fired the entire pandemic response team two years ago and then didn't replace them
2. Trump also cut funding for the CDC, forcing the CDC to cancel its efforts to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics in 39 of 49 countries in 2018.
Among the countries abandoned? China.
3. This isn't just about accountability. It's about drawing attention to the structural problems in the US response effort before things get worse.
Why isn't the House holding hearings right now?
_____________________________________________________________________
Business hours...Acting deputy secretary of homeland security (Ken Cuccinelli) couldn't just call Johns Hopkins--or have a staff member do so?
Greg Greene @ggreeneva | 3:02 PM · Feb 24, 2020
The acting deputy secretary of homeland security (Ken Cuccinelli) is asking the internet where to get information about the spread of #Covid19.
We are so borked.
Image ( https://twitter.com/ggreeneva/status/1232033090807226368/photo/1 )
_____________________________________________________________________
>9 margd: contd. On the up side, sounds like Covid-19 spike protein mapped by Chinese and widely shared, combined with 'rapid response platform' has produced first experimental vaccine for clinical testing as soon as April. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI), established at Davos in 2017, is funding several independent teams around the world to use Chinese protein in the platform model to quickly develop Covid-19 vaccine.
Drugmaker Moderna Delivers First Experimental Coronavirus Vaccine for Human Testing (4:17)
Peter Loftus | Feb. 24, 2020
Clinical trial is expected to start in April, as epidemic originating in China spurs quick response
Drugmaker Moderna Inc. (Norwood, Mass) has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, MD), who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccin...
Trump asking Congress for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus: White House
Reuters | February 24, 2020
The Trump administration is sending to the U.S. Congress a budget request for $2.5 billion to fight coronavirus, the White House said on Monday.
More than $1 billion of the money would go toward developing a vaccine, the White House said.
“Today, the Administration is transmitting to Congress a $2.5 billion supplemental funding plan to accelerate vaccine development, support preparedness and response activities and to procure much needed equipment and supplies,” Rachel Semmel, a spokeswoman for the White House Office of Management and Budget, said in a statement.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-usa-budget/trump-asking-congress...
____________________________________________________________________
Judd Legum @JuddLegum | 4:11 PM · Feb 24, 2020:
1. With the coronavirus killing thousands and threatening to tank the global economy, I feel like more people should be talking about the fact that Trump fired the entire pandemic response team two years ago and then didn't replace them
2. Trump also cut funding for the CDC, forcing the CDC to cancel its efforts to help countries prevent infectious-disease threats from becoming epidemics in 39 of 49 countries in 2018.
Among the countries abandoned? China.
3. This isn't just about accountability. It's about drawing attention to the structural problems in the US response effort before things get worse.
Why isn't the House holding hearings right now?
_____________________________________________________________________
Business hours...Acting deputy secretary of homeland security (Ken Cuccinelli) couldn't just call Johns Hopkins--or have a staff member do so?
Greg Greene @ggreeneva | 3:02 PM · Feb 24, 2020
The acting deputy secretary of homeland security (Ken Cuccinelli) is asking the internet where to get information about the spread of #Covid19.
We are so borked.
Image ( https://twitter.com/ggreeneva/status/1232033090807226368/photo/1 )
_____________________________________________________________________
>9 margd: contd. On the up side, sounds like Covid-19 spike protein mapped by Chinese and widely shared, combined with 'rapid response platform' has produced first experimental vaccine for clinical testing as soon as April. The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness (CEPI), established at Davos in 2017, is funding several independent teams around the world to use Chinese protein in the platform model to quickly develop Covid-19 vaccine.
Drugmaker Moderna Delivers First Experimental Coronavirus Vaccine for Human Testing (4:17)
Peter Loftus | Feb. 24, 2020
Clinical trial is expected to start in April, as epidemic originating in China spurs quick response
Drugmaker Moderna Inc. (Norwood, Mass) has shipped the first batch of its rapidly developed coronavirus vaccine to U.S. government researchers (National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, MD), who will launch the first human tests of whether the experimental shot could help suppress the epidemic originating in China...
https://www.wsj.com/articles/drugmaker-moderna-delivers-first-coronavirus-vaccin...
34margd
Meanwhile in Iran...
In Qom religious figures refuse the advice of health ministry to close Shia shrine & instead hold defiant communal prayer.
In a city that's epicenter of an epidemic killing people.
#Coronavirius #Iran
- Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi | 4:14 PM · Feb 24, 2020
Quote Tweet
محسنحسام مظاهری @mohsenHmazaheri · 16h
...
Image ( https://twitter.com/mohsenHmazaheri/status/1232042575739129859/photo/1 )
In Qom religious figures refuse the advice of health ministry to close Shia shrine & instead hold defiant communal prayer.
In a city that's epicenter of an epidemic killing people.
#Coronavirius #Iran
- Farnaz Fassihi @farnazfassihi | 4:14 PM · Feb 24, 2020
Quote Tweet
محسنحسام مظاهری @mohsenHmazaheri · 16h
...
Image ( https://twitter.com/mohsenHmazaheri/status/1232042575739129859/photo/1 )
35davidgn
John Campbell for today:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL7oGRKETZM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IL7oGRKETZM
36Molly3028
Trump doesn't appear to understand that the U.S. is part of a
global economy and viruses do not stay within artificial borders.
CNN and MSNBC relating news about viruses doesn't change the
situation on the ground in all the countries around the globe. Rush
and his ilk are playing their usual hate-filled, misinformation
games.
global economy and viruses do not stay within artificial borders.
CNN and MSNBC relating news about viruses doesn't change the
situation on the ground in all the countries around the globe. Rush
and his ilk are playing their usual hate-filled, misinformation
games.
37margd
Poor CDC! Remember Sharpiegate and how NWS tried to push back when Trump doctored hurricane Dorian map: https://time.com/5775953/trump-dorian-alabama-sharpiegate-noaa/ Chinese silenced the first brave MD who warned about Covid-19. Hope science can prevail over politics here!
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 8:03 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & CNN are doing everything possible
to make the Caronavirus (sic) look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible.
Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape! @CDCgov
I will be having a News Conference at the White House, on this subject, today at 6:00 P.M. CDC representatives, and others, will be there. Thank you!
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 8:03 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & CNN are doing everything possible
to make the Caronavirus (sic) look as bad as possible, including panicking markets, if possible.
Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action. USA in great shape! @CDCgov
I will be having a News Conference at the White House, on this subject, today at 6:00 P.M. CDC representatives, and others, will be there. Thank you!
38davidgn
New Campbell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FKPUNub-vDQ
39margd
Andy Slavitt ( Former Medicare, Medicaid & ACA head for Obama ) @ASlavitt | 11:14 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
NEWS: Trump is apparently considering reinstalling a Czar for Coronavirus after he decimated the pandemic response chain of command Obama put in place.
This is improvisation (of) the highest order. 1/
The only way his staff can persuade him to possibly do anything Obama did is because this issue's the one issue he cares about.
Did you guess “public health?” X
If you guessed “the stock market” you would be right. ☑️
2/
Whatever the reason, he needs to do it.
-They must stop overruling the CDC (and putting 14 people in harms way)
-They must create a serious budget request
-They must restore all funds they’ve taken from CDC, preparedness, and global security
-They are making daily mistakes. 3/
The only way to do this is with a real chain of command that can distribute supplies, coordinate funds, work with cities & states & hospitals (the front line), coordinate vaccine testing, and let the professionals at the CDC call the shots. 4/
This is too serious to be run by unserious people. No one will buy it— least of all the virus and the stock market
_____________________________________________________________________
https://twitter.com/hardball/status/1232469310209064960
_____________________________________________________________________
ETA:
Trump is facing a coronavirus threat. Let’s look back at how he talked about Ebola. (None of it is reassuring.)
Aaron Rupar@atrupar | Feb 26, 2020
Trump used Ebola to make a bunch of reckless attacks against Democrats in the lead up to the 2014 midterms, then promptly dropped the whole thing
What Trump’s Ebola tweets tell us about his management of the coronavirus situation
For Trump, containing coronavirus panic is just about his reelection
...Fortunately, though the federal government can provide guidance, a lot of the responsibility of protecting American citizens from a pandemic actually falls to state and local governments. But what the president says matters...
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/26/21154253/trump-ebola-tweets-coronavirus
______________________________________________________________________
ETA:
Rush Limbaugh and right-wing fringe sites are attacking Dr. Nancy Messonnier, a top CDC official handling the coronavirus response,
because she is Rod Rosenstein's sister. They're spreading the lie that she's part of the deep state and trying to tank the markets to weaken Trump.
- Marshall Cohen (CNN) @MarshallCohen | 1:24 PM · Feb 26, 2020
NEWS: Trump is apparently considering reinstalling a Czar for Coronavirus after he decimated the pandemic response chain of command Obama put in place.
This is improvisation (of) the highest order. 1/
The only way his staff can persuade him to possibly do anything Obama did is because this issue's the one issue he cares about.
Did you guess “public health?” X
If you guessed “the stock market” you would be right. ☑️
2/
Whatever the reason, he needs to do it.
-They must stop overruling the CDC (and putting 14 people in harms way)
-They must create a serious budget request
-They must restore all funds they’ve taken from CDC, preparedness, and global security
-They are making daily mistakes. 3/
The only way to do this is with a real chain of command that can distribute supplies, coordinate funds, work with cities & states & hospitals (the front line), coordinate vaccine testing, and let the professionals at the CDC call the shots. 4/
This is too serious to be run by unserious people. No one will buy it— least of all the virus and the stock market
_____________________________________________________________________
https://twitter.com/hardball/status/1232469310209064960
_____________________________________________________________________
ETA:
Trump is facing a coronavirus threat. Let’s look back at how he talked about Ebola. (None of it is reassuring.)
Aaron Rupar@atrupar | Feb 26, 2020
Trump used Ebola to make a bunch of reckless attacks against Democrats in the lead up to the 2014 midterms, then promptly dropped the whole thing
What Trump’s Ebola tweets tell us about his management of the coronavirus situation
For Trump, containing coronavirus panic is just about his reelection
...Fortunately, though the federal government can provide guidance, a lot of the responsibility of protecting American citizens from a pandemic actually falls to state and local governments. But what the president says matters...
https://www.vox.com/2020/2/26/21154253/trump-ebola-tweets-coronavirus
______________________________________________________________________
ETA:
Rush Limbaugh and right-wing fringe sites are attacking Dr. Nancy Messonnier, a top CDC official handling the coronavirus response,
because she is Rod Rosenstein's sister. They're spreading the lie that she's part of the deep state and trying to tank the markets to weaken Trump.
- Marshall Cohen (CNN) @MarshallCohen | 1:24 PM · Feb 26, 2020
40margd
So you think you’re about to be in a pandemic?
Ian M Mackay, PhD* and Katherine E Arden PhD | February 25, 2020
https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/
* Virologist Ian Mackay, adjunct Associate Professor at the University of Queensland, Australia
Ian M Mackay, PhD* and Katherine E Arden PhD | February 25, 2020
https://virologydownunder.com/so-you-think-youve-about-to-be-in-a-pandemic/
* Virologist Ian Mackay, adjunct Associate Professor at the University of Queensland, Australia
41stellarexplorer
>40 margd: That is a nice, sensible summary of preparedness by a leading virologist. Thank you.
If I were writing the fictional version of this outbreak, God sends the virus to let people know whom not to vote for in the upcoming election. But this isn’t fiction.
If I were writing the fictional version of this outbreak, God sends the virus to let people know whom not to vote for in the upcoming election. But this isn’t fiction.
42margd
>41 stellarexplorer: Pandemic, wildfires, flood, locusts, red tide and cyanobacteria. Weeping koalas. Frogs will be peeping soon. Hide your firstborn!
43davidgn
>40 margd: >41 stellarexplorer:
Of course, the downplaying of effectiveness of masks and PPE is predicated on the assumption that the "general public" will use them incorrectly and/or take unnecessary risks on account of wearing them. It's also an anti-hoarding measure. But a moment's reflection indicates that if they work when used by professionals, they work when used properly.
So watch this before attempting use. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdqcKHSIrrM
Of course, the downplaying of effectiveness of masks and PPE is predicated on the assumption that the "general public" will use them incorrectly and/or take unnecessary risks on account of wearing them. It's also an anti-hoarding measure. But a moment's reflection indicates that if they work when used by professionals, they work when used properly.
So watch this before attempting use. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kdqcKHSIrrM
44margd
thoughts and prayers, folks:
Trump official refuses to say a coronavirus vaccine would be affordable to all
Phil Thomas | 2/27/2020
..."We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest.. Price controls won't get us there." (HHS Secretary Alex Azar, former president of the US Division of Eli Lilly (Pharma))...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pence to lead US response to coronavirus as Trump urges Americans to prepare
Libby Cathey and Ben Gittleson | February 26, 2020
... President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that Vice President Mike Pence would lead the U.S. government response to coronavirus, after days of mixed messages from his administration about the threat to Americans.
Trump told reporters at a news conference Wednesday evening he was not labeling Pence a "czar."
"Mike will be working with the professionals, the doctors and everybody else that's working," Trump said. "The team is brilliant."...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-announces-news-conference-coronavirus-cdc-...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember?
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 6:20 PM · Oct 17, 2014:
Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump: Mike's "got a certain knack for this"...
Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response
Nicole Wetsman | Feb 26, 2020
Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence
...as governor of Indiana, he slashed public health spending and delayed the introduction of needle exchanges, which led to the state’s worst outbreak of HIV.
...also has a history of downplaying the link between smoking and lung cancer, writing in a 2000 op-ed that “despite the hysteria from the political class and the media, smoking doesn’t kill.”..
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/26/21155286/mike-pence-coronavirus-response-hiv
this guy’s in charge of protecting the US from the #CoronavirusOutbreak, everything’s fine
Image ( https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/1232827191169372161/photo/1 )
- shauna @goldengateblond | 7:38 PM · Feb 26, 2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HHS Secretary Azar: 'I'm still chairman of the task force' on coronavirus after Trump says Pence is leading response
Caroline Kelly | February 27, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/alexander-azar-coronavirus-chairman-task...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AntiNarcopathyPharmD @narceducator | 8:52 PM · Feb 26, 2020
Trump is challenging a doctor, Sanjay Gupta MD (CNN), on the FACTS about mortality related to influenza and the coronavirus.
Narcissists ALWAYS think they know more than the experts, while having absolutely no commensurate degrees, knowledge, achievements or experience.
Acyn Torabi @Acyn | 7:38 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
The President is called out on his repeated attempts to try to downplay the mortality rate of Coronavirus by citing flu deaths...
His answer falls short
0:39 ( https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1232827214070087680 )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew_lawrence | 7:26 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
oh god her* reaction
0:06 ( https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1232824240635863040 )
* Anne Schuchat, deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Erin Banco @ErinBanco | 7:11 PM · Feb 26, 2020
Totally wild that Trump, with the CDC rep next to him*, was basically like
actually no i don't think its assessment is right. I don't think it's inevitable.
Her face in that frame was priceless.
0:22 https://twitter.com/JacquelinMarieW/status/1232861618062544896
* Anne Schuchat, deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ever so slight eyebrow movement)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Dale (CNN) @ddale8 | 6:47 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
Trump talked only about the first 15 US cases, calling them "the original 15" and repeatedly referring to them,
even though the rest of the government now says there are 60 confirmed cases.
The government's distinction here is between cases among people who've been repatriated to the US and cases in the US itself;
Azar says it's 15 US-specific cases. Trump only talked about that group.
Jonathan Eisen @phylogenomics | 10:33 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
Email I received earlier today from @ucdavis Medical Center leaders regarding the case of
apparently community acquired #COVID19 in #Sacramento at #UCDavis hospital
Image ( https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1232871330602577920/photo/1 )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rep. Eric Swalwell @RepSwalwell | 9:10 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Mr. President, believe it or not, when it comes to the #coronavirus we really, REALLY want you to succeed.
So don’t screw it up.
Quote Tweet
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 8:03 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible,
including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action.
USA in great shape! @CDCgov.....
Trump official refuses to say a coronavirus vaccine would be affordable to all
Phil Thomas | 2/27/2020
..."We would want to ensure that we work to make it affordable, but we can't control that price, because we need the private sector to invest.. Price controls won't get us there." (HHS Secretary Alex Azar, former president of the US Division of Eli Lilly (Pharma))...
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/trump-coronavirus-...
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pence to lead US response to coronavirus as Trump urges Americans to prepare
Libby Cathey and Ben Gittleson | February 26, 2020
... President Donald Trump announced Wednesday that Vice President Mike Pence would lead the U.S. government response to coronavirus, after days of mixed messages from his administration about the threat to Americans.
Trump told reporters at a news conference Wednesday evening he was not labeling Pence a "czar."
"Mike will be working with the professionals, the doctors and everybody else that's working," Trump said. "The team is brilliant."...
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-announces-news-conference-coronavirus-cdc-...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Remember?
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 6:20 PM · Oct 17, 2014:
Obama just appointed an Ebola Czar with zero experience in the medical area and zero experience in infectious disease control. A TOTAL JOKE!
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump: Mike's "got a certain knack for this"...
Mike Pence, who enabled an HIV outbreak in Indiana, will lead US coronavirus response
Nicole Wetsman | Feb 26, 2020
Pence has a track record of ignoring public health evidence
...as governor of Indiana, he slashed public health spending and delayed the introduction of needle exchanges, which led to the state’s worst outbreak of HIV.
...also has a history of downplaying the link between smoking and lung cancer, writing in a 2000 op-ed that “despite the hysteria from the political class and the media, smoking doesn’t kill.”..
https://www.theverge.com/2020/2/26/21155286/mike-pence-coronavirus-response-hiv
this guy’s in charge of protecting the US from the #CoronavirusOutbreak, everything’s fine
Image ( https://twitter.com/goldengateblond/status/1232827191169372161/photo/1 )
- shauna @goldengateblond | 7:38 PM · Feb 26, 2020
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
HHS Secretary Azar: 'I'm still chairman of the task force' on coronavirus after Trump says Pence is leading response
Caroline Kelly | February 27, 2020
https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/alexander-azar-coronavirus-chairman-task...
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
AntiNarcopathyPharmD @narceducator | 8:52 PM · Feb 26, 2020
Trump is challenging a doctor, Sanjay Gupta MD (CNN), on the FACTS about mortality related to influenza and the coronavirus.
Narcissists ALWAYS think they know more than the experts, while having absolutely no commensurate degrees, knowledge, achievements or experience.
Acyn Torabi @Acyn | 7:38 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
The President is called out on his repeated attempts to try to downplay the mortality rate of Coronavirus by citing flu deaths...
His answer falls short
0:39 ( https://twitter.com/Acyn/status/1232827214070087680 )
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA
Andrew Lawrence @ndrew_lawrence | 7:26 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
oh god her* reaction
0:06 ( https://twitter.com/ndrew_lawrence/status/1232824240635863040 )
* Anne Schuchat, deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Erin Banco @ErinBanco | 7:11 PM · Feb 26, 2020
Totally wild that Trump, with the CDC rep next to him*, was basically like
actually no i don't think its assessment is right. I don't think it's inevitable.
Her face in that frame was priceless.
0:22 https://twitter.com/JacquelinMarieW/status/1232861618062544896
* Anne Schuchat, deputy director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (ever so slight eyebrow movement)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Daniel Dale (CNN) @ddale8 | 6:47 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
Trump talked only about the first 15 US cases, calling them "the original 15" and repeatedly referring to them,
even though the rest of the government now says there are 60 confirmed cases.
The government's distinction here is between cases among people who've been repatriated to the US and cases in the US itself;
Azar says it's 15 US-specific cases. Trump only talked about that group.
Jonathan Eisen @phylogenomics | 10:33 PM · Feb 26, 2020:
Email I received earlier today from @ucdavis Medical Center leaders regarding the case of
apparently community acquired #COVID19 in #Sacramento at #UCDavis hospital
Image ( https://twitter.com/phylogenomics/status/1232871330602577920/photo/1 )
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rep. Eric Swalwell @RepSwalwell | 9:10 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Mr. President, believe it or not, when it comes to the #coronavirus we really, REALLY want you to succeed.
So don’t screw it up.
Quote Tweet
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump · 8:03 AM · Feb 26, 2020:
Low Ratings Fake News MSDNC (Comcast) & CNN are doing everything possible to make the Caronavirus look as bad as possible,
including panicking markets, if possible. Likewise their incompetent Do Nothing Democrat comrades are all talk, no action.
USA in great shape! @CDCgov.....
45stellarexplorer
While one can only hope this does not become as awful as it well may, what impact will come of Trump’s negligence and the deaths of many? He may be right that he could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue without losing support, but shooting a person’s mother or father on Fifth Avenue? This would bother some people.
46margd
Top NIH official Anthony Fauci says coronavirus vaccine will likely take 12 to 18 months:
"That means...the answer to containing is public health measures. We can't rely on a vaccine over the next several months to a year."
2:16 ( https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1232819038293831681 )
https://abcn.ws/382br0Y
- ABC News ABC | 7:05 PM · Feb 26, 2020
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CDC: ...Clinical development is a three-phase process. During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety. Many vaccines undergo Phase IV formal, ongoing studies after the vaccine is approved and licensed... ( https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html )
Moderna ships first batch of COVID-19 vaccine for Phase I trial; study page posted online
Alaric DeArment | Feb 25, 2020
The company said it had shipped the first batch of the vaccine, mRNA-1273, for the NIH-run clinical trial. The study has an estimated start date of March 6, according to ClinicalTrials.gov, while The Wall Street Journal reported it would start in April.
...A page for the clinical trial was posted on ClinicalTrials.gov on Tuesday. Sponsored by the NIAID, the safety and immunogenicity study will enroll 45 men and non-pregnant women aged 18-55 and has an estimated start date of March 6, and will recruit healthy volunteers, according to the page. Participants will receive the vaccine at doses of 25, 100 or 250 micrograms. One site – the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute – Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, in Seattle – is listed. However, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci told The Wall Street Journal on Monday that the trial would start in April and enroll 20-25 participants, with initial results potentially available in July or August....
https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-ph...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anti-viral that Fauci referred to:
NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins
February 25, 2020
A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
The first trial participant is an American who was repatriated after being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, Japan and volunteered to participate in the study. The study can be adapted to evaluate additional investigative treatments and to enroll participants at other sites in the U.S. and worldwide.
...Remdesivir, developed by Gilead Sciences Inc., is an investigational broad-spectrum antiviral treatment. It was previously tested in humans with Ebola virus disease and has shown promise in animal models for treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which are caused by other coronaviruses.
...Clinical trials of remdesivir are also ongoing in China. NIAID developed the current study taking those designs into account, and in accordance with consultations convened by the WHO on the development of a therapeutic trial for patients with COVID-19.
...Initially, investigators will compare participant outcomes on day 15 in both the remdesivir group and the placebo group to see if the investigational drug increased clinical benefit compared to placebo. Outcomes are scored on a seven-point scale ranging from fully recovered to death. Investigators will reevaluate this scale after reviewing data from the first 100 participants.
An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) will monitor ongoing results to ensure patient well-being and safety as well as study integrity. The DSMB will recommend the study be halted if there is clear and substantial evidence of a treatment difference between drug and placebo.... (margd: I think that means that the drug would then be made available.)
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-trea...
"That means...the answer to containing is public health measures. We can't rely on a vaccine over the next several months to a year."
2:16 ( https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1232819038293831681 )
https://abcn.ws/382br0Y
- ABC News ABC | 7:05 PM · Feb 26, 2020
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CDC: ...Clinical development is a three-phase process. During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety. Many vaccines undergo Phase IV formal, ongoing studies after the vaccine is approved and licensed... ( https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/basics/test-approve.html )
Moderna ships first batch of COVID-19 vaccine for Phase I trial; study page posted online
Alaric DeArment | Feb 25, 2020
The company said it had shipped the first batch of the vaccine, mRNA-1273, for the NIH-run clinical trial. The study has an estimated start date of March 6, according to ClinicalTrials.gov, while The Wall Street Journal reported it would start in April.
...A page for the clinical trial was posted on ClinicalTrials.gov on Tuesday. Sponsored by the NIAID, the safety and immunogenicity study will enroll 45 men and non-pregnant women aged 18-55 and has an estimated start date of March 6, and will recruit healthy volunteers, according to the page. Participants will receive the vaccine at doses of 25, 100 or 250 micrograms. One site – the Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute – Vaccines and Infectious Diseases, in Seattle – is listed. However, NIAID Director Anthony Fauci told The Wall Street Journal on Monday that the trial would start in April and enroll 20-25 participants, with initial results potentially available in July or August....
https://medcitynews.com/2020/02/moderna-ships-first-batch-of-covid-19-vaccine-ph...
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Anti-viral that Fauci referred to:
NIH clinical trial of remdesivir to treat COVID-19 begins
February 25, 2020
A randomized, controlled clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the investigational antiviral remdesivir in hospitalized adults diagnosed with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has begun at the University of Nebraska Medical Center (UNMC) in Omaha. The trial regulatory sponsor is the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), part of the National Institutes of Health. This is the first clinical trial in the United States to evaluate an experimental treatment for COVID-19, the respiratory disease first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China.
The first trial participant is an American who was repatriated after being quarantined on the Diamond Princess cruise ship that docked in Yokohama, Japan and volunteered to participate in the study. The study can be adapted to evaluate additional investigative treatments and to enroll participants at other sites in the U.S. and worldwide.
...Remdesivir, developed by Gilead Sciences Inc., is an investigational broad-spectrum antiviral treatment. It was previously tested in humans with Ebola virus disease and has shown promise in animal models for treating Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), which are caused by other coronaviruses.
...Clinical trials of remdesivir are also ongoing in China. NIAID developed the current study taking those designs into account, and in accordance with consultations convened by the WHO on the development of a therapeutic trial for patients with COVID-19.
...Initially, investigators will compare participant outcomes on day 15 in both the remdesivir group and the placebo group to see if the investigational drug increased clinical benefit compared to placebo. Outcomes are scored on a seven-point scale ranging from fully recovered to death. Investigators will reevaluate this scale after reviewing data from the first 100 participants.
An independent data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) will monitor ongoing results to ensure patient well-being and safety as well as study integrity. The DSMB will recommend the study be halted if there is clear and substantial evidence of a treatment difference between drug and placebo.... (margd: I think that means that the drug would then be made available.)
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-clinical-trial-remdesivir-trea...
47Molly3028
A cancer diagnosis has not, and never will, turn Limbaugh into a
human being. Spreading hate and fear to increase his empire is
his goal. I guess he believes he can take it with him when the
Grim Reaper calls him home.
human being. Spreading hate and fear to increase his empire is
his goal. I guess he believes he can take it with him when the
Grim Reaper calls him home.
48davidgn
New Campbell. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uS821v3_E50
49margd
Pence Will Control All Coronavirus Messaging From Health Officials
Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman | Feb. 27, 2020
Government health officials and scientists will have to coordinate statements with the vice president’s office, one of three people designated as the administration’s primary coronavirus official.
...Mr. Pence was scheduled to lead a meeting of the government’s coronavirus task force on Thursday...
...Mr. Pence said Thursday that he had selected Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the director of the United States effort to combat H.I.V. and AIDS, to serve as the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the White House, enlisting an experienced scientist and physician to manage the response to the potential spread of the virus.
...with Mr. Pence’s announcement, Dr. Birx becomes the third person to be designated as the administration’s primary coronavirus official.
Mr. Trump said that “Mike is going to be in charge, and Mike will report back to me.” Mr. Pence said it will be Dr. Birx. Meanwhile, Alex M. Azar II, the health and human services secretary, remains the chairman of the government’s coronavirus task force.
...Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, one of the country’s leading experts on viruses and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance.
...The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do”...
Dr. Birx has spent more than three decades working on H.I.V./AIDS immunology, vaccine research, and global health, according to the White House, which said in a statement that she would “bring her infectious disease, immunologic, vaccine research and interagency coordinating capacity to this position.”
The president’s selection of Mr. Pence — and the decision to name Dr. Birx as the coordinator for the response — further erodes Mr. Azar’s traditional role as the nation’s top health official in charge of directing the government’s response to a medical crisis. Mr. Trump has told people that he considers Mr. Azar to be too “alarmist” about the virus.
Mr. Azar denied reports that he was not consulted about the decision or told before the announcement Wednesday evening. He told lawmakers during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Thursday that when he was informed of Mr. Pence’s selection to head the coronavirus task force, “I said, quote, ‘that’s genius.’”
...Officials also announced that Mr. Pence was expanding the Coronavirus Task Force to include “(k)ey administration officials, including Dr. Jerome Adams, the surgeon general, as well as the president’s top two economic advisers, Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, and Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary. The task force comprises more than a dozen top administration officials and cabinet secretaries...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronavirus-pence.html
Michael D. Shear and Maggie Haberman | Feb. 27, 2020
Government health officials and scientists will have to coordinate statements with the vice president’s office, one of three people designated as the administration’s primary coronavirus official.
...Mr. Pence was scheduled to lead a meeting of the government’s coronavirus task force on Thursday...
...Mr. Pence said Thursday that he had selected Dr. Deborah L. Birx, the director of the United States effort to combat H.I.V. and AIDS, to serve as the Coronavirus Response Coordinator for the White House, enlisting an experienced scientist and physician to manage the response to the potential spread of the virus.
...with Mr. Pence’s announcement, Dr. Birx becomes the third person to be designated as the administration’s primary coronavirus official.
Mr. Trump said that “Mike is going to be in charge, and Mike will report back to me.” Mr. Pence said it will be Dr. Birx. Meanwhile, Alex M. Azar II, the health and human services secretary, remains the chairman of the government’s coronavirus task force.
...Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, one of the country’s leading experts on viruses and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infections Diseases, told associates that the White House had instructed him not to say anything else without clearance.
...The decision to put Mr. Pence in charge was made on Wednesday after the president told some people that the vice president didn’t “have anything else to do”...
Dr. Birx has spent more than three decades working on H.I.V./AIDS immunology, vaccine research, and global health, according to the White House, which said in a statement that she would “bring her infectious disease, immunologic, vaccine research and interagency coordinating capacity to this position.”
The president’s selection of Mr. Pence — and the decision to name Dr. Birx as the coordinator for the response — further erodes Mr. Azar’s traditional role as the nation’s top health official in charge of directing the government’s response to a medical crisis. Mr. Trump has told people that he considers Mr. Azar to be too “alarmist” about the virus.
Mr. Azar denied reports that he was not consulted about the decision or told before the announcement Wednesday evening. He told lawmakers during a House Ways and Means Committee hearing on Thursday that when he was informed of Mr. Pence’s selection to head the coronavirus task force, “I said, quote, ‘that’s genius.’”
...Officials also announced that Mr. Pence was expanding the Coronavirus Task Force to include “(k)ey administration officials, including Dr. Jerome Adams, the surgeon general, as well as the president’s top two economic advisers, Larry Kudlow, director of the National Economic Council, and Steven Mnuchin, the treasury secretary. The task force comprises more than a dozen top administration officials and cabinet secretaries...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/27/us/politics/us-coronavirus-pence.html
50margd
America's Dr. Li Wenliang...
U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says
Lena H. Sun and Yasmeen Abutaleb | Feb. 27, 2020
Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.
The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, who is a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.
The whistleblower is seeking federal protection because she alleges she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-g...
U.S. workers without protective gear assisted coronavirus evacuees, HHS whistleblower says
Lena H. Sun and Yasmeen Abutaleb | Feb. 27, 2020
Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services sent more than a dozen workers to receive the first Americans evacuated from Wuhan, China, the epicenter of the coronavirus outbreak, without proper training for infection control or appropriate protective gear, according to a whistleblower complaint.
The workers did not show symptoms of infection and were not tested for the virus, according to lawyers for the whistleblower, who is a senior HHS official based in Washington who oversees workers at the Administration for Children and Families, a unit within HHS.
The whistleblower is seeking federal protection because she alleges she was unfairly and improperly reassigned after raising concerns about the safety of these workers to HHS officials, including those within the office of Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar. She was told Feb. 19 that if she does not accept the new position in 15 days, which is March 5, she would be terminated...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/27/us-workers-without-protective-g...
51davidgn
Very sad.
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/psychiatrist-on-trump-s-dangerous-resp...
>17 timspalding:
I have to wonder, given the egregiousness of Trump's neglect, whether your analysis still holds up.
https://www.msnbc.com/the-last-word/watch/psychiatrist-on-trump-s-dangerous-resp...
>17 timspalding:
I have to wonder, given the egregiousness of Trump's neglect, whether your analysis still holds up.
52margd
Um, sure hope CDC can study whether Covid-19, and any therapies and vaccines, harm or help those f-things in fat women's tummies:
This is a reminder that a bit over 2 two years ago the Centers for Disease Control was banned from using these words. *
Soon afterward the @Alt_CDC account went silent.
- Alt-San Juan Isle NP @AltSanJuanIsNP 2:31 PM · Feb 27, 2020
* diversity, entitlement, evidence-based, fetus, science-based, transgender, vulnerable
__________________________________________________________
CDC word ban? The fight over seven health-related words in the president’s next budget
Jon Cohen | Dec. 18, 2017
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/fight-over-seven-health-related-words-pr...
This is a reminder that a bit over 2 two years ago the Centers for Disease Control was banned from using these words. *
Soon afterward the @Alt_CDC account went silent.
- Alt-San Juan Isle NP @AltSanJuanIsNP 2:31 PM · Feb 27, 2020
* diversity, entitlement, evidence-based, fetus, science-based, transgender, vulnerable
__________________________________________________________
CDC word ban? The fight over seven health-related words in the president’s next budget
Jon Cohen | Dec. 18, 2017
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2017/12/fight-over-seven-health-related-words-pr...
53margd
Democrats lay out demands for coronavirus funding
Marisa Fernandez | Feb 27, 2020
...bipartisan congressional leaders are nearing an agreement on emergency funding....Pelosi and Schumer said in their joint statement that additional funding Congress grants to the Trump administration to combat the coronavirus must include the following provisions:
The president cannot transfer these new funds to anything other than the coronavirus and fighting infectious diseases;
Vaccines are affordable and available to all that need it; and
Interest-free loans are made available for small businesses impacted by the outbreak; and
The state and local governments are reimbursed for costs incurred while assisting the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak...
https://www.axios.com/nancy-pelosi-democrats-coronavirus-funding-09f24b51-0517-4...
Marisa Fernandez | Feb 27, 2020
...bipartisan congressional leaders are nearing an agreement on emergency funding....Pelosi and Schumer said in their joint statement that additional funding Congress grants to the Trump administration to combat the coronavirus must include the following provisions:
The president cannot transfer these new funds to anything other than the coronavirus and fighting infectious diseases;
Vaccines are affordable and available to all that need it; and
Interest-free loans are made available for small businesses impacted by the outbreak; and
The state and local governments are reimbursed for costs incurred while assisting the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak...
https://www.axios.com/nancy-pelosi-democrats-coronavirus-funding-09f24b51-0517-4...
54margd
Oh, great...
Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight
David Stanway, Kate Kelland | Feb 28, 2020
SHANGHAI/LONDON (Reuters) - A growing number of discharged coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital, which could make the epidemic harder to eradicate.
...Experts say there are several ways discharged patients could fall ill with the virus again. Convalescing patients might not build up enough antibodies to develop immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and are being infected again. The virus also could be “biphasic”, meaning it lies dormant before creating new symptoms.
But some of the first cases of “reinfection” in China have been attributed to testing discrepancies.
...Song Tie, vice director of the local disease control center in southern China’s Guangdong province, told a media briefing on Wednesday that as many as 14% of discharged patients in the province have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation....
He said one good sign is that none of those patients appear to have infected anyone else...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M...
_____________________________________________________________________
ETA
A dog in Hong Kong tests positive for the coronavirus, WHO officials confirm
Noah Higgins-Dunn | Feb 28 2020
WHO confirmed that a dog in Hong Kong has tested “weakly positive” for COVID-19.
Hong Kong scientists aren’t sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface.
Swabs of its nasal and oral cavities tested “weak positive,” Hong Kong agriculture officials said.
...The dog reportedly belongs to a 60-year-old woman who developed symptoms on Feb. 12 and later tested positive...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/a-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-the-corona...
Coronavirus reappears in discharged patients, raising questions in containment fight
David Stanway, Kate Kelland | Feb 28, 2020
SHANGHAI/LONDON (Reuters) - A growing number of discharged coronavirus patients in China and elsewhere are testing positive after recovering, sometimes weeks after being allowed to leave the hospital, which could make the epidemic harder to eradicate.
...Experts say there are several ways discharged patients could fall ill with the virus again. Convalescing patients might not build up enough antibodies to develop immunity to SARS-CoV-2, and are being infected again. The virus also could be “biphasic”, meaning it lies dormant before creating new symptoms.
But some of the first cases of “reinfection” in China have been attributed to testing discrepancies.
...Song Tie, vice director of the local disease control center in southern China’s Guangdong province, told a media briefing on Wednesday that as many as 14% of discharged patients in the province have tested positive again and had returned to hospitals for observation....
He said one good sign is that none of those patients appear to have infected anyone else...
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-reinfection-explainer-idUSKCN20M...
_____________________________________________________________________
ETA
A dog in Hong Kong tests positive for the coronavirus, WHO officials confirm
Noah Higgins-Dunn | Feb 28 2020
WHO confirmed that a dog in Hong Kong has tested “weakly positive” for COVID-19.
Hong Kong scientists aren’t sure if the dog is actually infected or if it picked up the virus from a contaminated surface.
Swabs of its nasal and oral cavities tested “weak positive,” Hong Kong agriculture officials said.
...The dog reportedly belongs to a 60-year-old woman who developed symptoms on Feb. 12 and later tested positive...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/28/a-dog-in-hong-kong-tests-positive-for-the-corona...
55Molly3028
Trump White House on navigating this virus issue in a nutshell ~
The less informed U.S. citizens are the happier they and the
people in my administration are going to be going forward.
This week's 'New Yorker' cover is right on ~
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2020/02/28/new-yorker-cover-co...
The less informed U.S. citizens are the happier they and the
people in my administration are going to be going forward.
This week's 'New Yorker' cover is right on ~
https://www.washingtonpost.com/arts-entertainment/2020/02/28/new-yorker-cover-co...
56lriley
I'm just getting the idea that this is going to be extremely hard to contain. That if it gets out of control--you'd almost have to be living by yourself and off the grid to avoid all chance of contagion. That if it does hit these shores hard everyone should be ready to have a lengthy hospital stay and with or without health insurance you'd better go and get help if you need it. It could very will kill travel everywhere but particularly to international locations and it's going to rock the economy in a number of ways and the Donald is the most unprepared dipshit on the planet and whether he knows it or not he's also among the most susceptible to getting it if it really does break out. Trump is a fucking fool though--I'm thinking he sees himself as invulnerable.
That isn't to say everyone is going to get but the very infamous Spanish flu went around the globe in 2018 and killed 40/50 million people and that was before air travel.
That isn't to say everyone is going to get but the very infamous Spanish flu went around the globe in 2018 and killed 40/50 million people and that was before air travel.
57margd
Good advice on how to stay safe from Laurie Garrett, Pulitzer Prize winning science journalist, author of The Coming Plague: Newly Emerging Diseases in a World Out of Balance (1994). She spent a lot of time in China researching SARS epidemic (2002) and so her advice is directed to China as well and translated into Chinese. (SARS is more deadly, but less contagious than Covid-19?)
Since she wrote article below (Jan 2020), >24 davidgn: read elsewhere that virus can be aerosolized (not just droplet) so those tending a sick person might want to wear safety glasses like "3M Centurion Safety Splash Goggle 454, 40304-00000-10 Clear Lens"? Maybe, too, more personal distance is warranted than Garrett used in presence of SARS and recommends in Jan article below?
The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe
As China’s epidemic continues to spread, things may seem scary. Here are 10 simple precautions that can protect you from contracting the coronavirus.
Laurie Garrett | January 25, 2020
...During the SARS epidemic, I traveled all over China and Hong Kong, interviewed people infected with the virus, doctors and nurses treating the disease, government officials, police—everybody. I was never concerned that I would become infected, despite being in the room with sick individuals. And that’s because I knew what precautions to take. Here are the most important ones to know:
1. When you leave your home, wear gloves—winter mittens or outdoor gloves—and keep them on in subways, buses, and public spaces...
2. If you are in a social situation where you should remove your gloves, perhaps to shake hands or dine, do not touch your face or eyes, no matter how much something itches. Keep your hands away from contact with your face. And before you put your gloves back on, wash your hands thoroughly with soap and warm water, scrubbing the fingers. Put your gloves on...
3. Change gloves daily, washing them thoroughly, and avoid wearing damp gloves...
4. Masks are useless when worn outdoors and may not be very helpful even indoors...Instead...stay away from crowds, and...keep...distance from individual people—a half meter, about 1.5 feet, is a good standard. If someone is coughing or sneezing,...ask them to put on a mask...If they decline...step a meter (about 3 feet) away from them, or...leave. Don’t shake hands or hug people...
5. Inside your household, remove all of the towels from your bathrooms and kitchen immediately, and replace them with clean towels that have the names of each family member on them...Wash all towels twice a week....
6. Be careful with doorknobs. If it’s possible to open and close doors using your elbows or shoulders, do so. Wear gloves to turn a doorknob (shopping carts?)—or wash your hands after touching it. If anybody in your home takes sick, wash your doorknobs regularly...stairway banisters, desktops, cell phones, toys, laptops...if you need to pick up someone else’s cell phone or cooking tools or use someone else’s computer keyboard, be mindful of not touching your face and wash your hands immediately after touching the object.
7. If you share meals, do not use your personal chopsticks and utensils to remove food from a serving bowl or plate and, of course, tell your children to never drink out of anybody else’s cups or from a container of shared fluid...
8. Absolutely do not buy, slaughter, or consume any live animal or fish until it is known what species was the source of the virus.
9. When the weather allows, open your windows at home or work, letting your space air out...
10. Finally, if you are caring for a friend or family member who is running a fever, always wear a tight-fitting mask when you are near them, and place one on the ailing person (unless they are nauseated). When you replace an old, dirty mask from the face of your friend or loved one be very, very careful—assume, for the sake of your protection, that it is covered in viruses, and handle it while wearing latex gloves, place it inside of a disposable container, seal it, and then put it in the trash. While wearing those latex gloves, gently wash the patient’s face with warm soap and water, using a disposable paper towel or cotton swab, and seal it after use in a container or plastic bag before placing it in your household trash. Wear long-sleeved shirts and clothing that covers your body when you are caring for your ailing friend or relative. Clean everything your patient wears or touches very thoroughly in hot soapy water, including sheets, towels, and utensils. If you have space, isolate the sick person in your household in a room, or a corner of a room, where they are comfortable, but separated from the rest of the household. If the weather is tolerable, open a window that is on the opposite side of the room, so that air gently blows past the patient’s face and then outdoors. Of course, don’t do this if it is very cold, as your friend or loved one will be made sicker if uncomfortably cold...
Be safe. Do not panic. Take commonsense precautions. As frightening as this time is, you will get through it.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safe-china/
Since she wrote article below (Jan 2020), >24 davidgn: read elsewhere that virus can be aerosolized (not just droplet) so those tending a sick person might want to wear safety glasses like "3M Centurion Safety Splash Goggle 454, 40304-00000-10 Clear Lens"? Maybe, too, more personal distance is warranted than Garrett used in presence of SARS and recommends in Jan article below?
The Wuhan Virus: How to Stay Safe
As China’s epidemic continues to spread, things may seem scary. Here are 10 simple precautions that can protect you from contracting the coronavirus.
Laurie Garrett | January 25, 2020
...During the SARS epidemic, I traveled all over China and Hong Kong, interviewed people infected with the virus, doctors and nurses treating the disease, government officials, police—everybody. I was never concerned that I would become infected, despite being in the room with sick individuals. And that’s because I knew what precautions to take. Here are the most important ones to know:
1. When you leave your home, wear gloves—winter mittens or outdoor gloves—and keep them on in subways, buses, and public spaces...
2. If you are in a social situation where you should remove your gloves, perhaps to shake hands or dine, do not touch your face or eyes, no matter how much something itches. Keep your hands away from contact with your face. And before you put your gloves back on, wash your hands thoroughly with soap and warm water, scrubbing the fingers. Put your gloves on...
3. Change gloves daily, washing them thoroughly, and avoid wearing damp gloves...
4. Masks are useless when worn outdoors and may not be very helpful even indoors...Instead...stay away from crowds, and...keep...distance from individual people—a half meter, about 1.5 feet, is a good standard. If someone is coughing or sneezing,...ask them to put on a mask...If they decline...step a meter (about 3 feet) away from them, or...leave. Don’t shake hands or hug people...
5. Inside your household, remove all of the towels from your bathrooms and kitchen immediately, and replace them with clean towels that have the names of each family member on them...Wash all towels twice a week....
6. Be careful with doorknobs. If it’s possible to open and close doors using your elbows or shoulders, do so. Wear gloves to turn a doorknob (shopping carts?)—or wash your hands after touching it. If anybody in your home takes sick, wash your doorknobs regularly...stairway banisters, desktops, cell phones, toys, laptops...if you need to pick up someone else’s cell phone or cooking tools or use someone else’s computer keyboard, be mindful of not touching your face and wash your hands immediately after touching the object.
7. If you share meals, do not use your personal chopsticks and utensils to remove food from a serving bowl or plate and, of course, tell your children to never drink out of anybody else’s cups or from a container of shared fluid...
8. Absolutely do not buy, slaughter, or consume any live animal or fish until it is known what species was the source of the virus.
9. When the weather allows, open your windows at home or work, letting your space air out...
10. Finally, if you are caring for a friend or family member who is running a fever, always wear a tight-fitting mask when you are near them, and place one on the ailing person (unless they are nauseated). When you replace an old, dirty mask from the face of your friend or loved one be very, very careful—assume, for the sake of your protection, that it is covered in viruses, and handle it while wearing latex gloves, place it inside of a disposable container, seal it, and then put it in the trash. While wearing those latex gloves, gently wash the patient’s face with warm soap and water, using a disposable paper towel or cotton swab, and seal it after use in a container or plastic bag before placing it in your household trash. Wear long-sleeved shirts and clothing that covers your body when you are caring for your ailing friend or relative. Clean everything your patient wears or touches very thoroughly in hot soapy water, including sheets, towels, and utensils. If you have space, isolate the sick person in your household in a room, or a corner of a room, where they are comfortable, but separated from the rest of the household. If the weather is tolerable, open a window that is on the opposite side of the room, so that air gently blows past the patient’s face and then outdoors. Of course, don’t do this if it is very cold, as your friend or loved one will be made sicker if uncomfortably cold...
Be safe. Do not panic. Take commonsense precautions. As frightening as this time is, you will get through it.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/01/25/wuhan-coronavirus-safe-china/
58RickHarsch
>58 RickHarsch:
11. In the early stages of a potential pandemic, seek your own sources, compare thoughts and speculation. Here, Davidgn recommends Dr. Campbell's youtube videos, which I think are very good. He tends to be on the pessimistic side, which in this context is a bit more comforting than someone who seems not to take seriously more pessimistic possibilities. It may be that Davidgn got his notion of aerosol spread from Campbell, who presents it as possibility.
Campbell uses this site often: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and it's useful for acquiring not only the latest statistics but the various circumstances involved is the spread of covid-19 and the way governments are reacting.
--The strangest thing I have noticed is that the latest news I have from Milan is that 2 people there have the virus. Meanwhile, at one point a couple days ago at least 5 people had spread it to another country after traveling from Milan. I think the latter figure has at least doubled and I have heard no new numbers from Milan.
--There is nothing near consensus among nations on a protocol. As I have said here, my wife was in Bergamo. She returned by bus on Feb. 18. If she had returned to Israel she would be required to isolate herself until the 27th before considering herself safe to mingle. Here, not only did the not test her, they did not test her friend who was in Bergamo two weeks longer. Her doctor spoke with an epidemiologist in Slovenia about my wife's situation specifically and was told our family had nothing to worry about. So our kids went back to school as soon as their colds went away.
However, my son plays baseball in Italy and is told to avoid practices until 2 weeks have passed since his cold was over.
--We have heard from several sources that in Ljubljana, capitol of the country bordering Italy with no detected cases, stores are running out of canned foods like beans.
--You may have read by now that a virologist in Milan has found differences between the covid-19 strain in Italy and that in China.
--Dr. Campbell points out that the Brazilian on a flight from Milan who has the virus may only be the first detected case, as he was on a plane and any number of fellow passengers could easily have caught the virus. He seems quietly astonished that the US is still accepting flights from Italy and South Korea.
So no one really knows precisely what we are facing and therefore it seems to me the most conservative reactions make the most sense.
11. In the early stages of a potential pandemic, seek your own sources, compare thoughts and speculation. Here, Davidgn recommends Dr. Campbell's youtube videos, which I think are very good. He tends to be on the pessimistic side, which in this context is a bit more comforting than someone who seems not to take seriously more pessimistic possibilities. It may be that Davidgn got his notion of aerosol spread from Campbell, who presents it as possibility.
Campbell uses this site often: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ and it's useful for acquiring not only the latest statistics but the various circumstances involved is the spread of covid-19 and the way governments are reacting.
--The strangest thing I have noticed is that the latest news I have from Milan is that 2 people there have the virus. Meanwhile, at one point a couple days ago at least 5 people had spread it to another country after traveling from Milan. I think the latter figure has at least doubled and I have heard no new numbers from Milan.
--There is nothing near consensus among nations on a protocol. As I have said here, my wife was in Bergamo. She returned by bus on Feb. 18. If she had returned to Israel she would be required to isolate herself until the 27th before considering herself safe to mingle. Here, not only did the not test her, they did not test her friend who was in Bergamo two weeks longer. Her doctor spoke with an epidemiologist in Slovenia about my wife's situation specifically and was told our family had nothing to worry about. So our kids went back to school as soon as their colds went away.
However, my son plays baseball in Italy and is told to avoid practices until 2 weeks have passed since his cold was over.
--We have heard from several sources that in Ljubljana, capitol of the country bordering Italy with no detected cases, stores are running out of canned foods like beans.
--You may have read by now that a virologist in Milan has found differences between the covid-19 strain in Italy and that in China.
--Dr. Campbell points out that the Brazilian on a flight from Milan who has the virus may only be the first detected case, as he was on a plane and any number of fellow passengers could easily have caught the virus. He seems quietly astonished that the US is still accepting flights from Italy and South Korea.
So no one really knows precisely what we are facing and therefore it seems to me the most conservative reactions make the most sense.
59stellarexplorer
>57 margd: Laurie Garrett’s recommendations are quite sensible. I’ve followed her for a very long time and trust her. I am focused now on how we will care for a sick family member in our home without infecting the well. I’m not sure how likely it is that we can keep the other house members safe, but hers is a good list.
60davidgn
Well, that was inevitable.
First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/29/new-covid-19-death-raises-concerns-about-vir...
Coronavirus: Nation’s first cluster of illnesses reported in Seattle area
Two cases in facility, unrelated to earlier death. More than 50 other cases are suspected.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-nations-first-cluster-of-illn...
First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/29/new-covid-19-death-raises-concerns-about-vir...
Coronavirus: Nation’s first cluster of illnesses reported in Seattle area
Two cases in facility, unrelated to earlier death. More than 50 other cases are suspected.
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/02/29/coronavirus-nations-first-cluster-of-illn...
62margd
>59 stellarexplorer: Amazingly the three cases this season all came from outside--we apparently managed not to infect each other, given the spacing of the illnesses. Three of the four of us were vaccinated, but unvax and two vax got ill. (It had been a very long time since flu visited this family, but our number must have come up!) Most importantly, the son (vaxx'd) with pre-existing conditions was spared. I had most of the following on hand for flu etc:
zinc lozenges (sore throat)
elderberry (lung bacteria & viruses)
paper surgical masks (one sicko wore over Christmas)
acetominophen (fever, aches & pains)
thermometer & alcohol for disinfection
expectorant (guafesin) for congestion and non-productive coughs*
some also use dextromethorphan (DM) to suppress non-productive coughs*
a bedroom & LR sofa & a bathroom dedicated to sicko--with Covid-19 might keep sicko out of LR?
spray bottle w disinfectant (bleach solution better I'm sure, but I used 1/2 c alcohol + 1/2 H2O2 + 1t dish soap + 1T Finish dishwasher rinse + water) on door knobs, remote (sealed in baggie), bathrooms, etc.
nitrile or latex gloves--we didn't use for flu but I would if caring for Covid-19 patient. ($20 for two boxes nitrile gloves Costco)
ETA maybe goggles per >24 davidgn:?
* ETA Hopefully we'll be advised whether expectorant or cough suppressant would be useful for Covid-19. ALS website says: "Symptoms of both viral and bacterial pneumonia can be treated with expectorant (not suppressant) cough medicines like Mucinex or Robitussin decongestants or nasal sprays; increased hydration; inhaled medications like Mucomyst or Albuterol; and nebulizers using distilled water, saline solution or other medication, antibiotics, effervescent acetylcysteine."
https://alsworldwide.org/care-and-support/article/avoiding-pneumonia . margd: I've been prescribed albuterol once or twice in past to relax bronchial spasms in aftermath of cold/flu. A few puffss worked well for me!
zinc lozenges (sore throat)
elderberry (lung bacteria & viruses)
paper surgical masks (one sicko wore over Christmas)
acetominophen (fever, aches & pains)
thermometer & alcohol for disinfection
expectorant (guafesin) for congestion and non-productive coughs*
some also use dextromethorphan (DM) to suppress non-productive coughs*
a bedroom & LR sofa & a bathroom dedicated to sicko--with Covid-19 might keep sicko out of LR?
spray bottle w disinfectant (bleach solution better I'm sure, but I used 1/2 c alcohol + 1/2 H2O2 + 1t dish soap + 1T Finish dishwasher rinse + water) on door knobs, remote (sealed in baggie), bathrooms, etc.
nitrile or latex gloves--we didn't use for flu but I would if caring for Covid-19 patient. ($20 for two boxes nitrile gloves Costco)
ETA maybe goggles per >24 davidgn:?
* ETA Hopefully we'll be advised whether expectorant or cough suppressant would be useful for Covid-19. ALS website says: "Symptoms of both viral and bacterial pneumonia can be treated with expectorant (not suppressant) cough medicines like Mucinex or Robitussin decongestants or nasal sprays; increased hydration; inhaled medications like Mucomyst or Albuterol; and nebulizers using distilled water, saline solution or other medication, antibiotics, effervescent acetylcysteine."
https://alsworldwide.org/care-and-support/article/avoiding-pneumonia . margd: I've been prescribed albuterol once or twice in past to relax bronchial spasms in aftermath of cold/flu. A few puffss worked well for me!
63davidgn
Given the lower respiratory focus, the following information might also prove helpful to encourage bronchial drainage in individuals affected (although not a substitute for medical advice and attention):
https://www.myshepherdconnection.org/respiratory/postural-drainage-clapping
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/postural-drainage
Noteworthy that common tactic for those who advance to critical care is to place them on their stomachs.
I'll just keep puffing my inhaled corticosteroids (eesh...) and keep my fingers crossed. Something tells me I won't be getting out much for a while.
https://www.myshepherdconnection.org/respiratory/postural-drainage-clapping
https://www.sciencedirect.com/topics/medicine-and-dentistry/postural-drainage
Noteworthy that common tactic for those who advance to critical care is to place them on their stomachs.
I'll just keep puffing my inhaled corticosteroids (eesh...) and keep my fingers crossed. Something tells me I won't be getting out much for a while.
64davidgn
Chris Martenson can be cutesy and variously annoying, but he does cast a wider net and is worth a watch. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVQC1hAYZBs (currently live, late in broadcast, will revert to recording.)
Highlight is the open letter to the Belgian Minister of Health from U.S.-Belgian molecular biologist Dr. Marc Wathelet, found here in translation:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_between_47_and_7_dr_marc...
Excerpt:
(Original: https://www.rtbf.be/info/opinions/detail_lettre-ouverte-a-la-ministre-de-la-sant... )
(Naturally, the numbers cited likely exclude a lot of minimally symptomatic and/or unrecorded cases, but the demonstration of relative scale remains valid)
And this from the UK:
Coronavirus: England only has 15 beds for worst respiratory cases
NHS says system will struggle if more than 28 patients need artificial lung treatment
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/27/coronavirus-england-only-has-15-...
In other words: if in England, better hope a ventilator cuts the mustard for you if you need one. It might be all that's available.
Highlight is the open letter to the Belgian Minister of Health from U.S.-Belgian molecular biologist Dr. Marc Wathelet, found here in translation:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Coronavirus/comments/fbbr3b/r0_between_47_and_7_dr_marc...
Excerpt:
Dear Minister, You assure the country that we are ready to face the new coronavirus, and yet certain key frontline players, nurses and doctors, are not reassured, and neither am I.
I am a doctor of science and I have led a group of researchers studying human coronaviruses in general, and the group responsible for the SARS epidemic, SARS-CoV, in particular. I did this work in two institutions, as a member of the faculty of the College of Medicine at the University of Cincinnati and as an investigator at the only institute in the world devoted exclusively to research on respiratory diseases, in Albuquerque, where I had the opportunity to study all aspects of aerosol production and aerosol transmission. In these two institutions, I was one of the officers responsible for ensuring that all experiments involving infectious or recombinant agents comply with all the rules and do not pose a danger to the general public.
I sent you a file via the SPF Health website on February 12, which indicates that if the proportion of symptomatic cases due to the new coronavirus reaches 1% of the population, we would be on the verge of a hospital crisis (your reference: CCAL0331485).
In an interview published yesterday, you answer the question But how many beds do we have exactly? You know that in Belgium we have enough beds and sufficient treatment capacity. It’s an advantage. When we compare with a winter flu and the number of elderly patients who are generally hospitalized, the situation is identical.
In my file, I cited a W.H.O. February 10 report estimating that ~ 16% of symptomatic patients were in a condition serious enough to require hospitalization. For the flu it is only ~ 0.2%! The relationship between the two? A factor of 80, not really an identical situation.
The fact-finding mission of the W.H.O. in China released its report yesterday, it is worth consulting. We now have more precise figures for symptomatic patients: 80% of mild cases (can stay at home), 13% of severe cases (hospitalization), 6% of critical cases (intensive care).
Would you be so kind, Madam Minister, you who have access to all the information on the Belgian hospital network, to calculate for our edification: how many symptomatic cases would it take for the Belgian hospital system to run out of hospital beds for severe and critical cases?
(Original: https://www.rtbf.be/info/opinions/detail_lettre-ouverte-a-la-ministre-de-la-sant... )
(Naturally, the numbers cited likely exclude a lot of minimally symptomatic and/or unrecorded cases, but the demonstration of relative scale remains valid)
And this from the UK:
Coronavirus: England only has 15 beds for worst respiratory cases
NHS says system will struggle if more than 28 patients need artificial lung treatment
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2020/feb/27/coronavirus-england-only-has-15-...
In other words: if in England, better hope a ventilator cuts the mustard for you if you need one. It might be all that's available.
65stellarexplorer
What amazes me is the number of people I encounter who are still in serious denial of what’s happening.
66davidgn
Regarding aerosol transmission above, cf. the following, amid many others, 5 days back: https://www.msn.com/en-sg/news/world/china-confirms-aerosol-spread-of-covid-19-f...
The question seems to be not whether it's transmissible via aerosols, but HOW transmissible it is via aerosols, rather than droplets. And fortunately, most of what I've seen seems to suggest the answer is "not terribly; primarily an issue in enclosed spaces."
>65 stellarexplorer: No kidding.
The question seems to be not whether it's transmissible via aerosols, but HOW transmissible it is via aerosols, rather than droplets. And fortunately, most of what I've seen seems to suggest the answer is "not terribly; primarily an issue in enclosed spaces."
>65 stellarexplorer: No kidding.
67davidgn
Had a thought about where the USPHS is in all this, particularly the commissioned corps. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Public_Health_Service_Commissioned_Corps) I at least know they exist as a uniformed service (which is probably better than most of my countrymen), but they never get any press. I stumbled upon this little gem here. https://www.moaa.org/content/publications-and-media/news-articles/2020-news-arti...
Whoops. Bit late now, isn't it...
A bill that would create a Ready Reserve Corps of public health personnel passed unanimously Jan. 9 in a Senate vote.
The U.S. Public Health Service Modernization Act, S. 2629, provides for a ready reserve corps to fill the need for an additional commissioned corps for emergency response missions. The bipartisan legislation is sponsored by Sen. Mike Rounds (R-S.D.), with support from Sens. Doug Jones (D-Ala.) and Patty Murray (D-Wash.).
In 2010, Congress had approved a ready reserve corps of 2,500 personnel, but due to a technical error, the legislation failed to include the statutory authority for pay and benefits. The current bill resolves this, giving the service authority to create a reserve component and provide compensation and benefits.
Whoops. Bit late now, isn't it...
68stellarexplorer
>66 davidgn: The droplet v aerosol (smaller particles that spread more distantly) seems a crucial factor in making the Wuhan epidemic far worse. What I’m getting at is that the importance of how contagious this was and how important were basic public health measures including isolation were not understood before there was massive spread. If it had turned out to have been transmitted by aerosols, this would make some difference but less so. This may make the pandemic a 1% lethality event instead of a 4-5% event, meaning potentially hundreds of millions more who survive.
69davidgn
Hmm. Quercetin? Can't hurt. https://www.macleans.ca/news/canada/a-made-in-canada-solution-to-the-coronavirus...
Will be interested to see results.
Will be interested to see results.
70margd
First Covid-19 outbreak in a U.S. nursing home raises concerns
Eric Boodman and Helen Branswell | February 29, 2020
Washington state reported on Saturday the first death in the U.S. from the new coronavirus, the first health care worker to be infected with the disease, and most worrying, the first known outbreak in a long-term care facility.
At a nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash, approximately 27 of the 108 residents and 25 of the 180 staff have some symptoms, health officials said during a teleconference with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Authorities report that some among them have pneumonia.
...The deceased, a man in his 50s with underlying health conditions, was not a resident of the facility, and officials have not yet found a link between his case and the outbreak in the nursing facility. “At the present time, we do not see a connection between the two. But there are some evolving threads that are being investigated,” said Frank Riedo, the medical director of infection control at Evergreen Health Hospital, where the death occurred. “I think … what we’re seeing is the tip of the iceberg,” he added. “We’re seeing the most critically ill individuals. Usually that means there’s a significant percentage of individuals with less severe illness floating around out there. So in all likelihood there is ongoing low level transmission.”
...a team from the CDC will be arriving Saturday evening to help investigate and control the situation...
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/29/new-covid-19-death-raises-concerns-about-vir...
Eric Boodman and Helen Branswell | February 29, 2020
Washington state reported on Saturday the first death in the U.S. from the new coronavirus, the first health care worker to be infected with the disease, and most worrying, the first known outbreak in a long-term care facility.
At a nursing facility in Kirkland, Wash, approximately 27 of the 108 residents and 25 of the 180 staff have some symptoms, health officials said during a teleconference with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Authorities report that some among them have pneumonia.
...The deceased, a man in his 50s with underlying health conditions, was not a resident of the facility, and officials have not yet found a link between his case and the outbreak in the nursing facility. “At the present time, we do not see a connection between the two. But there are some evolving threads that are being investigated,” said Frank Riedo, the medical director of infection control at Evergreen Health Hospital, where the death occurred. “I think … what we’re seeing is the tip of the iceberg,” he added. “We’re seeing the most critically ill individuals. Usually that means there’s a significant percentage of individuals with less severe illness floating around out there. So in all likelihood there is ongoing low level transmission.”
...a team from the CDC will be arriving Saturday evening to help investigate and control the situation...
https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/29/new-covid-19-death-raises-concerns-about-vir...
71lriley
We're about 8 months away from our election and this may end up the year of the mail in ballot. Potential to really depress turnout.
72margd
>71 lriley: So many ways this could hurt Trump's re-election chances, I only hope he doesn't find a way to cancel election, claiming an emergency...
There's always a tweet:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 10:32 AM · Oct 15, 2014:
President Obama has a personal responsibility to visit & embrace all people in the US who contract Ebola!
______________________________________________________________________________
A pulmonologist reviews JAMA article on Chinese outbreak's characteristics, advises on "if you get sick"...
Coronavirus Epidemic Update 28: Practical Prevention Strategies, Patient Age vs. Case Fatality Rate (16:47
Feb 28, 2020
Coronavirus Update 28 with pulmonologist Dr. Seheult of https://www.MedCram.com.
Topics include what health care professionals and other citizens can do to prevent COVID-19 spread, coronavirus case fatality rate based on patient age, and further discussion on coronavirus test kits.
Reviews:
Zunyou Wu and Jennifer M. McGoogan. 2020. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China. Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. Published online February 24, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2648 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
Concludes "If you get sick":
1. Get a thermometer (100.4, 38 C is "fever"). Try to avoid affecting others, esp., G'ma and G'pa.
2. Don't go to hospital unless you need to.
3. Don't hoard masks.
4. Call ahead if you have severe symptoms (shortness of breath, dyspnea (difficult or labored breathing), chest pains, lethargic/sleepy/nonreponsive): you'll be directed to right place, they'll be ready for you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quDYb_x54DM&feature=youtu.be
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(The video that follows is John Campbell, Feb 29, 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOTz9duXwo)
There's always a tweet:
Donald J. Trump @realDonaldTrump | 10:32 AM · Oct 15, 2014:
President Obama has a personal responsibility to visit & embrace all people in the US who contract Ebola!
______________________________________________________________________________
A pulmonologist reviews JAMA article on Chinese outbreak's characteristics, advises on "if you get sick"...
Coronavirus Epidemic Update 28: Practical Prevention Strategies, Patient Age vs. Case Fatality Rate (16:47
Feb 28, 2020
Coronavirus Update 28 with pulmonologist Dr. Seheult of https://www.MedCram.com.
Topics include what health care professionals and other citizens can do to prevent COVID-19 spread, coronavirus case fatality rate based on patient age, and further discussion on coronavirus test kits.
Reviews:
Zunyou Wu and Jennifer M. McGoogan. 2020. Characteristics of and Important Lessons From the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China. Summary of a Report of 72,314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. JAMA. Published online February 24, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.2648 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
Concludes "If you get sick":
1. Get a thermometer (100.4, 38 C is "fever"). Try to avoid affecting others, esp., G'ma and G'pa.
2. Don't go to hospital unless you need to.
3. Don't hoard masks.
4. Call ahead if you have severe symptoms (shortness of breath, dyspnea (difficult or labored breathing), chest pains, lethargic/sleepy/nonreponsive): you'll be directed to right place, they'll be ready for you
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=quDYb_x54DM&feature=youtu.be
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
(The video that follows is John Campbell, Feb 29, 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5rOTz9duXwo)
73madpoet
The economic impact of this virus on China is already huge. Some economists were talking about 'slower growth' this quarter. That is way too optimistic. In many parts of China, stores are just starting to reopen, but restaurants are only allowed to do takeout, and cinemas or any other place where large groups might gather are closed. Many factories are still closed, or not at full production. Tourism is nil. Schools are closed. China is already in a recession, and if things don't get back to normal very soon, we might see a depression.
If China does go into a depression, we will see a global recession, or worse.
If China does go into a depression, we will see a global recession, or worse.
74davidgn
So the CDC lifted the embargo on state labs moving forward with testing on their own...day before yesterday, was it? Until that point, the whole country was almost fully blind. Now, it's like turning on a blacklight and spraying luminol. Little buggies everywhere...
A dire phase of the coronavirus outbreak? 'Boom' of US cases 'should be expected' as global death toll tops 3,000
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/01/coronavirus-hundreds-may-b...
Yeah, no shit. And because of the CDC's colossal failure with testing, they're going to show up all of a sudden, all at once. Expect widespread and intensifying panic nationwide.
Via my family -- if you want to watch a hapless amateur citizen reporter working himself up into a frenzy reporting the new cases in real time... well, bring the popcorn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-nVOVTUUxk No doubt there's dozens of them, most far less careful.
His Twitter is actually kind of useful. https://twitter.com/lookner
A dire phase of the coronavirus outbreak? 'Boom' of US cases 'should be expected' as global death toll tops 3,000
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2020/03/01/coronavirus-hundreds-may-b...
Yeah, no shit. And because of the CDC's colossal failure with testing, they're going to show up all of a sudden, all at once. Expect widespread and intensifying panic nationwide.
Via my family -- if you want to watch a hapless amateur citizen reporter working himself up into a frenzy reporting the new cases in real time... well, bring the popcorn. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7-nVOVTUUxk No doubt there's dozens of them, most far less careful.
His Twitter is actually kind of useful. https://twitter.com/lookner
75davidgn
>73 madpoet: And that's the biggest bit of the story.
76madpoet
>75 davidgn: Maybe not. But there are going to be many families in China that have their life savings wiped out; small businesses that will go bankrupt; workers who were scraping by before, and soon are going to be homeless and hungry. (Yes, the social safety net is much better in 'capitalist' countries than in 'communist' China. There are no food banks here, or unemployment insurance) If this is what bursts the real estate bubble here-- it will be devastating to the middle class and to millions of construction workers.
So yes, it is a shame that 3,000 people have died from this disease, and probably hundreds more because they didn't get treatment for other diseases (they were too afraid to go to the hospital, or were turned away). But the economic damage from the quarantine should not be ignored either.
So yes, it is a shame that 3,000 people have died from this disease, and probably hundreds more because they didn't get treatment for other diseases (they were too afraid to go to the hospital, or were turned away). But the economic damage from the quarantine should not be ignored either.
77davidgn
John Oliver does Coronavirus. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c09m5f7Gnic
78margd
>77 davidgn: Those Brits! :D
A Scottish Hebrides FB group solemnly announced Scotland's first case of Covid-19.
A couple of posts later:
Skye crofter* Donnie MacLeod has 'self-isolated' himself in a bothy** on the far side of Lorgil over fears he had contracted the coronavirus.
In an interview conducted by torchlight morse code he told Skye News... " I had just sat down to my breakfast porridge and started to put the salt in when I noticed how hot I felt, then I started sneezing and sneezing. I'm taking no chances, not with lambing due next month ".
Meanwhile on the family croft in Waterstein Mrs MacLeod turned the heating back down to normal, tipped the pepper out of the salt seller and telephoned her mother to confirm the coast was clear for a visit.
* croft - a small rented farm, especially one in Scotland, comprising a plot of arable land attached to a house and with a right of pasturage held in common with other such farms.
** A bothy is a basic shelter, usually left unlocked and available for anyone to use free of charge. It was also a term for basic accommodation, usually for gardeners or other workers on an estate. Bothies are found in remote mountainous areas of Scotland, Northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales and the Isle of Man.
ETA__________________________________________________________________
A couple of my mates went to the "Pier Hotel', Portree, Skye last night, for a quiet 'Tea Time Pint'..😆
They have both been married for over 20 years...😕..
Anyway.. they were at the 'Bar' when some guy came in and started sneezing and coughing...😲
My Mates had to phone there 'Wife's, told them that they have been 'Quarantined' in the Bar and will see them in 14 days....😆😆😆
(Mind you I was 'Quarantined' myself in the very same Bar for over 14 years..I never Complained )..
A Scottish Hebrides FB group solemnly announced Scotland's first case of Covid-19.
A couple of posts later:
Skye crofter* Donnie MacLeod has 'self-isolated' himself in a bothy** on the far side of Lorgil over fears he had contracted the coronavirus.
In an interview conducted by torchlight morse code he told Skye News... " I had just sat down to my breakfast porridge and started to put the salt in when I noticed how hot I felt, then I started sneezing and sneezing. I'm taking no chances, not with lambing due next month ".
Meanwhile on the family croft in Waterstein Mrs MacLeod turned the heating back down to normal, tipped the pepper out of the salt seller and telephoned her mother to confirm the coast was clear for a visit.
* croft - a small rented farm, especially one in Scotland, comprising a plot of arable land attached to a house and with a right of pasturage held in common with other such farms.
** A bothy is a basic shelter, usually left unlocked and available for anyone to use free of charge. It was also a term for basic accommodation, usually for gardeners or other workers on an estate. Bothies are found in remote mountainous areas of Scotland, Northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales and the Isle of Man.
ETA__________________________________________________________________
A couple of my mates went to the "Pier Hotel', Portree, Skye last night, for a quiet 'Tea Time Pint'..😆
They have both been married for over 20 years...😕..
Anyway.. they were at the 'Bar' when some guy came in and started sneezing and coughing...😲
My Mates had to phone there 'Wife's, told them that they have been 'Quarantined' in the Bar and will see them in 14 days....😆😆😆
(Mind you I was 'Quarantined' myself in the very same Bar for over 14 years..I never Complained )..
79margd
Economic Group Warns That Virus Could Significantly Slow Global Growth
Jeanna Smialek | March 2, 2020
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak sweeps through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to just 1.5 percent in 2020, far less than the 3 percent it projected before the virus surfaced.
“This scenario would put Japan and Europe in recession, and the U.S. close to zero,” Laurence Boone, the organization’s chief economist, told reporters during a conference call Monday.
She added, “This is not a worst-case scenario.” The impact could be even more dire if the outbreak spreads beyond Asia, Europe and the United States and into the southern hemisphere, she said.
...Central banks have signaled that they stand ready to act, and investors have begun looking to the Federal Reserve and its global counterparts for relief. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, released a statement on Friday pledging that the central bank would “act as appropriate” to protect growth.
Ms. Boone said that she welcomed expressions of resolve by central banks, but that the onus was also on governments.
For example, political leaders could provide incentives for companies to shorten work hours rather than lay people off, or delay tax payments for small businesses suffering from plunging sales. Ms. Boone said it would be “a very positive signal” if the United States and China were to drop the tariffs they had imposed as part of a trade war.
“This is not a shock that central banks alone can address,” Ms. Boone said. “It really, really needs to be accompanied by fiscal measures.”...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/business/economy/global-economy-coronavirus.h...
__________________________________________________________________________
Federal Reserve and Rs had a hand as well as Trump, but he sure was a leader in depleting economic tools to deal with Covid-19's economic impacts. Tariffs were exclusively Trumps' contribution...
David Frum @davidfrum | 8:11 AM · Mar 2, 2020:
With interest rates already at record lows, and fiscal deficits already at peacetime record highs -
Trump has already depleted the policy tools to face the coming coronavirus supply shock to the economy.
Opinion: Stock-market investors, it’s time to hear the ugly truth
Sven Henrich | Published: Jan 7, 2019 5:41 p.m. ET
The Federal Reserve is propping up the market — and here’s the evidence...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-its-time-to-hear-the-ug...
Jeanna Smialek | March 2, 2020
The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development said that if the outbreak sweeps through the Asia-Pacific region, Europe and North America, global growth could fall to just 1.5 percent in 2020, far less than the 3 percent it projected before the virus surfaced.
“This scenario would put Japan and Europe in recession, and the U.S. close to zero,” Laurence Boone, the organization’s chief economist, told reporters during a conference call Monday.
She added, “This is not a worst-case scenario.” The impact could be even more dire if the outbreak spreads beyond Asia, Europe and the United States and into the southern hemisphere, she said.
...Central banks have signaled that they stand ready to act, and investors have begun looking to the Federal Reserve and its global counterparts for relief. The Fed chair, Jerome H. Powell, released a statement on Friday pledging that the central bank would “act as appropriate” to protect growth.
Ms. Boone said that she welcomed expressions of resolve by central banks, but that the onus was also on governments.
For example, political leaders could provide incentives for companies to shorten work hours rather than lay people off, or delay tax payments for small businesses suffering from plunging sales. Ms. Boone said it would be “a very positive signal” if the United States and China were to drop the tariffs they had imposed as part of a trade war.
“This is not a shock that central banks alone can address,” Ms. Boone said. “It really, really needs to be accompanied by fiscal measures.”...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/02/business/economy/global-economy-coronavirus.h...
__________________________________________________________________________
Federal Reserve and Rs had a hand as well as Trump, but he sure was a leader in depleting economic tools to deal with Covid-19's economic impacts. Tariffs were exclusively Trumps' contribution...
David Frum @davidfrum | 8:11 AM · Mar 2, 2020:
With interest rates already at record lows, and fiscal deficits already at peacetime record highs -
Trump has already depleted the policy tools to face the coming coronavirus supply shock to the economy.
Opinion: Stock-market investors, it’s time to hear the ugly truth
Sven Henrich | Published: Jan 7, 2019 5:41 p.m. ET
The Federal Reserve is propping up the market — and here’s the evidence...
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-investors-its-time-to-hear-the-ug...
80stellarexplorer
>79 margd: And a big bump today in anticipation of rescue by central banks. Expect major printing of money when rate hikes (not much room there!) don’t sustain things. But I’ve learned never to try to be too smart when it comes to market, so we shall see.
81margd
Coronavirus prevention: How to make hand sanitizer at home
Grant Butler | Mar 02, 2020
...Here’s what you need:
2/3 cup Isopropyl alcohol 91% (rubbing alcohol)
1/3 cup aloe vera gel
Essential oil in your choice of fragrance (optional) ETA: peppermint! :-)
A small or medium mixing bowl
A spoon
An empty container, such as a 3-ounce container from a travel toiletries kit
A small piece of masking tape for labeling
Here’s how to make it:
In a mixing bowl, stir Isopropyl alcohol and aloe vera gel together until well blended.
Add 8-10 drops of scented essential oil (optional, but nice!). Stir to incorporate.
Pour the homemade hand sanitizer into an empty container and seal. Write “hand sanitizer” on a piece of masking tape and affix to the bottle.
The CDC recommends using hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol content. This recipe makes a sanitizer that slightly exceeds that alcohol content, so follow the proportions exactly -- no fudging or winging it!
Of course, hand sanitizer is the second-best way to keep your digits germ-free. The No. 1 way, according to the CDC, is to properly wash your hands...
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-prevention-how-to-mak...
Grant Butler | Mar 02, 2020
...Here’s what you need:
2/3 cup Isopropyl alcohol 91% (rubbing alcohol)
1/3 cup aloe vera gel
Essential oil in your choice of fragrance (optional) ETA: peppermint! :-)
A small or medium mixing bowl
A spoon
An empty container, such as a 3-ounce container from a travel toiletries kit
A small piece of masking tape for labeling
Here’s how to make it:
In a mixing bowl, stir Isopropyl alcohol and aloe vera gel together until well blended.
Add 8-10 drops of scented essential oil (optional, but nice!). Stir to incorporate.
Pour the homemade hand sanitizer into an empty container and seal. Write “hand sanitizer” on a piece of masking tape and affix to the bottle.
The CDC recommends using hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol content. This recipe makes a sanitizer that slightly exceeds that alcohol content, so follow the proportions exactly -- no fudging or winging it!
Of course, hand sanitizer is the second-best way to keep your digits germ-free. The No. 1 way, according to the CDC, is to properly wash your hands...
https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/coronavirus-prevention-how-to-mak...
82stellarexplorer
>81 margd: Good advice, especially as the shelves have been picked clean of mass produced hand sanitizer, at least where I live
83rastaphrog
>82 stellarexplorer: It's the same in the store where I work, and in our last NF/HBA order half of what we ordered was cut. Also taking a big hit the last couple days were the Lysol type sprays/wipes, and some general cleaners that are anti-viral.
I don't know what other chains may be doing, but mine is going crazy with being proactive at trying to have stuff on hand. We're getting mass distributions on a number of food and cleaning items on tonights load, with more to come. I don't know exactly what items we'll be getting other than a few things, but our order is 1800 items, NOT counting our X-load. (Next weeks sale items.) A normal Tuesday load INCLUDING the X-load is around that number. The CAO clerk had her day off changed so both she and the grocery manager will be on hand tomorrow to pack out what we can't get done tonight.
Depending on how things go with it's spread, the "panic shopping" for this could make the ones we've had for storms look like a normal day.
I don't know what other chains may be doing, but mine is going crazy with being proactive at trying to have stuff on hand. We're getting mass distributions on a number of food and cleaning items on tonights load, with more to come. I don't know exactly what items we'll be getting other than a few things, but our order is 1800 items, NOT counting our X-load. (Next weeks sale items.) A normal Tuesday load INCLUDING the X-load is around that number. The CAO clerk had her day off changed so both she and the grocery manager will be on hand tomorrow to pack out what we can't get done tonight.
Depending on how things go with it's spread, the "panic shopping" for this could make the ones we've had for storms look like a normal day.
84stellarexplorer
>83 rastaphrog: interesting - great to get a first hand account in a store, rastaphrog!
85margd
How Coronavirus Could Impact the Global Supply Chain by Mid-March
Pierre Haren and David Simchi-Levi | February 28, 2020
Reports on how the Covid-19 outbreak is affecting supply chains and disrupting manufacturing operations around the world are increasing daily. But the worst is yet to come. We predict that the peak of the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains will occur in mid-March, forcing thousands of companies to throttle down or temporarily shut assembly and manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe. The most vulnerable companies are those which rely heavily or solely on factories in China for parts and materials. The activity of Chinese manufacturing plants has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months...
https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-coronavirus-could-impact-the-global-supply-chain-by-...
________________________________________________________________________
Fed makes largest emergency cut to interest rates since the financial crisis
Heather Long | March 3, 2020
The Fed’s action reduces the U.S. interest rate to just below 1.25 percent, down from about 1.75 percent. Fed leaders voted unanimously in favor of the rate reduction, and Powell tried to project a sense of calm during short 13-minute press conference.* He said repeatedly that the U.S. economic fundamentals still look healthy, but he noted that “sentiment” had shifted. The cut briefly calmed investors, but it was short-lived and the stock market fell sharply an hour later.
Economists have warned that growth this year is widely expected to slow sharply and some countries could fall into a recession if the situation isn’t resolved soon. Goldman Sachs has projected that economic growth in the United States could stall in the second quarter, which runs from April through June. Congress is preparing a $7.5 billion emergency funding package to help with the costs of fighting the epidemic.
The highly unusual Fed action comes on the heels of other central banks around the world lowering their interest rates and calls by President Trump for a “big” rate cut.
Powell acknowledged the Fed can’t come up with a vaccine or fix a broken supply chain that’s disrupted by the outbreak in China, but he believes the rate cut will help protect the economy from a downturn...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/03/economy-coronavirus-rate-cuts...
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4iSw3yKq5k
Pierre Haren and David Simchi-Levi | February 28, 2020
Reports on how the Covid-19 outbreak is affecting supply chains and disrupting manufacturing operations around the world are increasing daily. But the worst is yet to come. We predict that the peak of the impact of Covid-19 on global supply chains will occur in mid-March, forcing thousands of companies to throttle down or temporarily shut assembly and manufacturing plants in the U.S. and Europe. The most vulnerable companies are those which rely heavily or solely on factories in China for parts and materials. The activity of Chinese manufacturing plants has fallen in the past month and is expected to remain depressed for months...
https://hbr.org/2020/02/how-coronavirus-could-impact-the-global-supply-chain-by-...
________________________________________________________________________
Fed makes largest emergency cut to interest rates since the financial crisis
Heather Long | March 3, 2020
The Fed’s action reduces the U.S. interest rate to just below 1.25 percent, down from about 1.75 percent. Fed leaders voted unanimously in favor of the rate reduction, and Powell tried to project a sense of calm during short 13-minute press conference.* He said repeatedly that the U.S. economic fundamentals still look healthy, but he noted that “sentiment” had shifted. The cut briefly calmed investors, but it was short-lived and the stock market fell sharply an hour later.
Economists have warned that growth this year is widely expected to slow sharply and some countries could fall into a recession if the situation isn’t resolved soon. Goldman Sachs has projected that economic growth in the United States could stall in the second quarter, which runs from April through June. Congress is preparing a $7.5 billion emergency funding package to help with the costs of fighting the epidemic.
The highly unusual Fed action comes on the heels of other central banks around the world lowering their interest rates and calls by President Trump for a “big” rate cut.
Powell acknowledged the Fed can’t come up with a vaccine or fix a broken supply chain that’s disrupted by the outbreak in China, but he believes the rate cut will help protect the economy from a downturn...
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/03/economy-coronavirus-rate-cuts...
* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x4iSw3yKq5k
86margd
Flu can be tough on those F-things in fat women's tummies (#52).
Good to read small study that suggests maybe--just maybe--not so with Covid-19:
Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors
Sharon Begley | March 3, 2020
...Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger... the fatality rate was...0.2% in people 10 to 39...
...Pregnancy
In early February, Chinese state media reported that a woman infected with the virus gave birth to a baby who later tested positive for it. Newborns might become infected because of close proximity to a patient, like anyone else, but the case raised fears that a pregnant woman can transmit the virus to her fetus via the placenta.
Only one small study has investigated such “vertical transmission.” Scientists at Wuhan University found that, of nine pregnant patients infected with the virus (all had a caesarean section) in their third trimester, none seemed to pass the virus to their babies, all of whom scored at the top of the Apgar scale of newborn health.
As for the mothers, “Covid-19 seems not to be especially severe in pregnant women, at least based on the small number in this study,” the scientists wrote. That was somewhat surprising because pregnancy suppresses the immune system (so it doesn’t attack the fetus); pregnant women are more susceptible to respiratory pathogens than non-pregnant women. Nevertheless, none of the nine women developed severe Covid-19 pneumonia.
It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown...
Good to read small study that suggests maybe--just maybe--not so with Covid-19:
Who is getting sick, and how sick? A breakdown of coronavirus risk by demographic factors
Sharon Begley | March 3, 2020
...Only 8.1% of cases were 20-somethings, 1.2% were teens, and 0.9% were 9 or younger... the fatality rate was...0.2% in people 10 to 39...
...Pregnancy
In early February, Chinese state media reported that a woman infected with the virus gave birth to a baby who later tested positive for it. Newborns might become infected because of close proximity to a patient, like anyone else, but the case raised fears that a pregnant woman can transmit the virus to her fetus via the placenta.
Only one small study has investigated such “vertical transmission.” Scientists at Wuhan University found that, of nine pregnant patients infected with the virus (all had a caesarean section) in their third trimester, none seemed to pass the virus to their babies, all of whom scored at the top of the Apgar scale of newborn health.
As for the mothers, “Covid-19 seems not to be especially severe in pregnant women, at least based on the small number in this study,” the scientists wrote. That was somewhat surprising because pregnancy suppresses the immune system (so it doesn’t attack the fetus); pregnant women are more susceptible to respiratory pathogens than non-pregnant women. Nevertheless, none of the nine women developed severe Covid-19 pneumonia.
It may be that immuno-suppression is actually helpful. Some of the most serious symptoms of Covid-19 result from an immune system on the rampage rather than a lethargic one, Chinese scientists found: An extreme immune response called cytokine storm, a flood of immune cells and the biochemicals they produce, tears through lung tissue.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/03/who-is-getting-sick-and-how-sick-a-breakdown...
87davidgn
Campbell for the 3rd
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zabxwzq_wfA
(and the 2nd -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4FLqWw0CbQ)
Plus -- Campbell teaches you to wash your hands. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AGW3bbcb3Y
(He is actually a nurse and a research PhD, and a long-time trainer of nurses -- cf.
Campbell's Physiology Notes // Campbell's Pathophysiology Notes
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zabxwzq_wfA
(and the 2nd -- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M4FLqWw0CbQ)
Plus -- Campbell teaches you to wash your hands. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1AGW3bbcb3Y
(He is actually a nurse and a research PhD, and a long-time trainer of nurses -- cf.
Campbell's Physiology Notes // Campbell's Pathophysiology Notes
88margd
8% of Iran's parliament has the coronavirus, and it released 54,000 prisoners as the country descends into chaos
John Haltiwanger | March 3, 2020
Eight percent of Iran's parliament — 23 out of 290 members — has been infected with the coronavirus.
At least seven government officials also have it, including one of Iran's vice presidents, and a key adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died from the virus.
The government's efforts to suppress information about the scale of the outbreak has exacerbated its impact, and experts warn this is a cautionary tale for the rest of the world.
...Iran has temporarily released 54,000 prisoners to combat the spread of COVID-19...
https://www.businessinsider.com/8-percent-iran-parliament-has-coronavirus-it-rel...
_______________________________________________________
WHO medics, aid flown into Iran as virus toll jumps to 66
Agence France-Presse | March 3, 2020
...As the official death toll rose by 12 to 66, the Islamic republic turned down a similar offer from arch-enemy Washington, dismissing it as "propaganda".
The World Health Organization said a flight arrived from Dubai carrying medical supplies and experts on a fact-finding mission and to "provide guidance on strengthening and scaling up the response to the ongoing outbreak."
Germany, France and Britain, for their part, said they would send emergency medical supplies including testing equipment, body suits and gloves as well as five million euros (US$5.5 million) to help tackle the outbreak...
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/03/who-medics-aid-flown-into-iran-as...
John Haltiwanger | March 3, 2020
Eight percent of Iran's parliament — 23 out of 290 members — has been infected with the coronavirus.
At least seven government officials also have it, including one of Iran's vice presidents, and a key adviser to Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has died from the virus.
The government's efforts to suppress information about the scale of the outbreak has exacerbated its impact, and experts warn this is a cautionary tale for the rest of the world.
...Iran has temporarily released 54,000 prisoners to combat the spread of COVID-19...
https://www.businessinsider.com/8-percent-iran-parliament-has-coronavirus-it-rel...
_______________________________________________________
WHO medics, aid flown into Iran as virus toll jumps to 66
Agence France-Presse | March 3, 2020
...As the official death toll rose by 12 to 66, the Islamic republic turned down a similar offer from arch-enemy Washington, dismissing it as "propaganda".
The World Health Organization said a flight arrived from Dubai carrying medical supplies and experts on a fact-finding mission and to "provide guidance on strengthening and scaling up the response to the ongoing outbreak."
Germany, France and Britain, for their part, said they would send emergency medical supplies including testing equipment, body suits and gloves as well as five million euros (US$5.5 million) to help tackle the outbreak...
https://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2020/03/03/who-medics-aid-flown-into-iran-as...
89margd
‘Significant step’ in COVID-19 vaccine quest
University of Queensland | 21 February 2020
In just three weeks, (University of Queensland) team of researchers has created their first vaccine candidate in the laboratory...The proof-of-concept milestone comes after the project’s announcement on 24 January as part of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) rapid response program.
...highly accelerated time frame of the rapid response program, and the long hours in the lab...paid off with...(proven) feasibility of using UQ’s ‘molecular clamp’ technology to engineer a vaccine candidate that could be more readily recognised by the immune system, triggering a protective immune response.
The next stage is to produce this on a larger scale needed for additional testing, to determine its effectiveness against the virus.
...much-accelerated timetable...investigational clinical testing after the middle of the year.
UQ is one of only three programs globally, and the only one in Australia, initiated by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), leveraging ‘rapid response’ platforms in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.uq.edu.au/news/node/125951
University of Queensland | 21 February 2020
In just three weeks, (University of Queensland) team of researchers has created their first vaccine candidate in the laboratory...The proof-of-concept milestone comes after the project’s announcement on 24 January as part of the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) rapid response program.
...highly accelerated time frame of the rapid response program, and the long hours in the lab...paid off with...(proven) feasibility of using UQ’s ‘molecular clamp’ technology to engineer a vaccine candidate that could be more readily recognised by the immune system, triggering a protective immune response.
The next stage is to produce this on a larger scale needed for additional testing, to determine its effectiveness against the virus.
...much-accelerated timetable...investigational clinical testing after the middle of the year.
UQ is one of only three programs globally, and the only one in Australia, initiated by the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), leveraging ‘rapid response’ platforms in response to the novel coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.uq.edu.au/news/node/125951
90margd
Amid outbreak, Trump admin's proposed rollback of nursing home regulations faces criticism
Suzy Khimm and Laura Strickler | March 3, 2020, 2:48 PM EST
...With older, vulnerable residents living in close quarters, nursing homes face a heightened risk from the coronavirus — a majority of the nine deaths reported in the U.S. so far from the virus were residents of a long-term care center in Washington state. But over the last three years, the Trump administration has advanced — with the support of the nursing home industry — an effort to ease regulations on long-term care facilities and has taken significant steps to reduce fines for violations.
Of particular concern in nursing homes is what experts call “infection control” to halt or prevent the spread of disease within health care facilities. Last July, the Trump administration proposed rolling back regulations requiring all nursing homes and other long-term care facilities to employ infection prevention specialists at least part time, citing “excessively burdensome requirements” on the industry. Under the proposal, which is still working its way through federal rule-making,* nursing homes would be allowed to use consultants for infection prevention rather than hiring staff...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amid-coronavirus-outbreak-trump-administrat...
________________________________________________________________________
* Requirements for Long-Term Care Facilities: Regulatory Provisions to Promote Program Efficiency, Transparency, and Burden Reduction (CMS-3347-F)(Section 610 Review)
Abstract:
This final rule reforms the requirements that long-term care facilities must meet to participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs that CMS has identified as unnecessary, obsolete, or excessively burdensome on facilities. This rule increases the ability of healthcare professionals to devote resources to improving resident care by eliminating or reducing requirements that impede quality care or that divert resources away from providing high-quality care.
https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201910&RIN=0938-AT36
Suzy Khimm and Laura Strickler | March 3, 2020, 2:48 PM EST
...With older, vulnerable residents living in close quarters, nursing homes face a heightened risk from the coronavirus — a majority of the nine deaths reported in the U.S. so far from the virus were residents of a long-term care center in Washington state. But over the last three years, the Trump administration has advanced — with the support of the nursing home industry — an effort to ease regulations on long-term care facilities and has taken significant steps to reduce fines for violations.
Of particular concern in nursing homes is what experts call “infection control” to halt or prevent the spread of disease within health care facilities. Last July, the Trump administration proposed rolling back regulations requiring all nursing homes and other long-term care facilities to employ infection prevention specialists at least part time, citing “excessively burdensome requirements” on the industry. Under the proposal, which is still working its way through federal rule-making,* nursing homes would be allowed to use consultants for infection prevention rather than hiring staff...
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/amid-coronavirus-outbreak-trump-administrat...
________________________________________________________________________
* Requirements for Long-Term Care Facilities: Regulatory Provisions to Promote Program Efficiency, Transparency, and Burden Reduction (CMS-3347-F)(Section 610 Review)
Abstract:
This final rule reforms the requirements that long-term care facilities must meet to participate in the Medicare and Medicaid programs that CMS has identified as unnecessary, obsolete, or excessively burdensome on facilities. This rule increases the ability of healthcare professionals to devote resources to improving resident care by eliminating or reducing requirements that impede quality care or that divert resources away from providing high-quality care.
https://www.reginfo.gov/public/do/eAgendaViewRule?pubId=201910&RIN=0938-AT36
91margd
Video-conferencing will finally take off?
One coronavirus lesson that I hope we can internalize: most business travel is unnecessary.
It’s expensive, it’s bad for families and the environment.
90% of trips and conferences could go away without anyone being worse off.
- Daniel Crosby @danielcrosby | 1:41 PM · Mar 3, 2020
https://twitter.com/danielcrosby/status/1234911762560036866
One coronavirus lesson that I hope we can internalize: most business travel is unnecessary.
It’s expensive, it’s bad for families and the environment.
90% of trips and conferences could go away without anyone being worse off.
- Daniel Crosby @danielcrosby | 1:41 PM · Mar 3, 2020
https://twitter.com/danielcrosby/status/1234911762560036866
92margd
South Korea plans to use a GPS-based app to monitor people quarantined at home
Carly Walsh | March 4, 2020
...a GPS-based app...will monitor people who are quarantined -- and if they leave their designated location, the system will set off an alarm.
The application will be implemented later this week in Daegu and surrounding North Gyeongsang province, where about 90% of national infections have been reported, according to the government. There are an estimated 2,300 people currently under quarantine in Daegu alone.
...South Korean authorities say several people have broken quarantine and left their homes.
Currently, more than 2,000 confirmed patients in Daegu and North Gyeongsang province are waiting for beds.
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-04-20-intl-hnk/h_...
Carly Walsh | March 4, 2020
...a GPS-based app...will monitor people who are quarantined -- and if they leave their designated location, the system will set off an alarm.
The application will be implemented later this week in Daegu and surrounding North Gyeongsang province, where about 90% of national infections have been reported, according to the government. There are an estimated 2,300 people currently under quarantine in Daegu alone.
...South Korean authorities say several people have broken quarantine and left their homes.
Currently, more than 2,000 confirmed patients in Daegu and North Gyeongsang province are waiting for beds.
https://edition.cnn.com/asia/live-news/coronavirus-outbreak-03-04-20-intl-hnk/h_...
93clamairy
This might be good news:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-type...
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/04/coronavirus-chinese-scientists-identify-two-type...
94John5918
Two articles on the politics of coronavirus outside the USA:
How European populists are using coronavirus as a political tool (Al Jazeera)
As more European countries announce coronavirus cases, Europe's populist politicians are attempting to use the health crisis to serve their own political goals... For Matteo Salvini, Italy's former interior minister and leader of the far-right League party, the epidemic provides an opportunity to persuade Italians that their pro-European government is failing... "Allowing migrants to land from Africa, where the presence of the virus was confirmed, is irresponsible," Salvini told reporters last month. At that time, Egypt was the only country to have reported one confirmed case. Since then, a handful of cases have appeared across the continent...
Two NGO rescue boats, Doctors Without Borders' (Medicins sans Frontiers, MSF) Ocean Viking and Sea Watch 3, have been blocked in two Sicilian ports... No cases of the virus have been detected on board.
"To put a rescue boat in quarantine is like stopping an ambulance in the middle of an emergency," MSF Italy wrote...
The coronavirus crisis means No 10 can no longer fight the battles it craves (Guardian)
The situation is too serious for Johnson and Cummings’ personal vendettas and destructive tendencies to continue...
How European populists are using coronavirus as a political tool (Al Jazeera)
As more European countries announce coronavirus cases, Europe's populist politicians are attempting to use the health crisis to serve their own political goals... For Matteo Salvini, Italy's former interior minister and leader of the far-right League party, the epidemic provides an opportunity to persuade Italians that their pro-European government is failing... "Allowing migrants to land from Africa, where the presence of the virus was confirmed, is irresponsible," Salvini told reporters last month. At that time, Egypt was the only country to have reported one confirmed case. Since then, a handful of cases have appeared across the continent...
Two NGO rescue boats, Doctors Without Borders' (Medicins sans Frontiers, MSF) Ocean Viking and Sea Watch 3, have been blocked in two Sicilian ports... No cases of the virus have been detected on board.
"To put a rescue boat in quarantine is like stopping an ambulance in the middle of an emergency," MSF Italy wrote...
The coronavirus crisis means No 10 can no longer fight the battles it craves (Guardian)
The situation is too serious for Johnson and Cummings’ personal vendettas and destructive tendencies to continue...
95margd
>93 clamairy: Neat! Yet another reason to protect ourselves against what seems like an inevitable disease!
Not only may there be therapies and vaccines later, by reducing transmission rate, we may favor the evolution of less virulent strains for when we finally succumb. Also, we even out the load on hospital services, making it more likely that help will be there for those of us who need them.
(Social distancing can be disruptive, though...)
You sent me googling. From article below, why virulent strains spread through the air or by contact may triumph in crowded conditions, and how measures increasing social distancing may select for less virulent strains, e.g., wider testing, more hand-washing stations, increased attention to sanitization, and isolation of patients:
Evolution from a virus's view
December 2007
... Though transmission mode is far from the only factor that affects how virulence evolves — the immunity level of the host population, the distribution of the hosts, and whether the host has other infections, for example, matter as well — this key piece of the pathogen's ecology does help illuminate why some diseases are killers. More importantly, it suggests how we might sway pathogen evolution towards less virulent strains. In situations where high virulence is tied to high transmission rates (e.g., cholera), reducing transmission rates (e.g., by providing better water sanitation) may favor less virulent forms. The idea is to create a situation in which hyper-virulent strains that soon kill or immobilize their hosts never get a chance to infect new hosts and are turned into evolutionary dead ends. In fact, biologists have observed this phenomenon in South America: when cholera invaded countries with poor water sanitation, the strains evolved to be more virulent, while lineages that invaded areas with better sanitation evolved to be less harmful.
And that brings us back to Adenovirus-14 ("killer cold"). Adenoviruses are transmitted through the air or via contact. We might expect this sort of transmission to require a fairly healthy host (one who gets out and comes into contact with others) and, hence, to select against virulent strains. Indeed, adenoviruses are rarely killers, but in close quarters — for example, in the military barracks where Adenovirus-14 has been a particular problem — barriers to transmission may be lowered. This could open the door for the evolution of more virulent strains. Military personnel, however, are in the process of pushing this door shut again. At Lackland Air Force Base, which has seen the most serious outbreak of Adenovirus-14, wider testing, more hand-washing stations, increased attention to sanitization, and isolation of patients is helping to reduce the transmission of the disease and, in the process, may favor the evolution of less virulent strains of the virus.
https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/071201_adenovirus
Not only may there be therapies and vaccines later, by reducing transmission rate, we may favor the evolution of less virulent strains for when we finally succumb. Also, we even out the load on hospital services, making it more likely that help will be there for those of us who need them.
(Social distancing can be disruptive, though...)
You sent me googling. From article below, why virulent strains spread through the air or by contact may triumph in crowded conditions, and how measures increasing social distancing may select for less virulent strains, e.g., wider testing, more hand-washing stations, increased attention to sanitization, and isolation of patients:
Evolution from a virus's view
December 2007
... Though transmission mode is far from the only factor that affects how virulence evolves — the immunity level of the host population, the distribution of the hosts, and whether the host has other infections, for example, matter as well — this key piece of the pathogen's ecology does help illuminate why some diseases are killers. More importantly, it suggests how we might sway pathogen evolution towards less virulent strains. In situations where high virulence is tied to high transmission rates (e.g., cholera), reducing transmission rates (e.g., by providing better water sanitation) may favor less virulent forms. The idea is to create a situation in which hyper-virulent strains that soon kill or immobilize their hosts never get a chance to infect new hosts and are turned into evolutionary dead ends. In fact, biologists have observed this phenomenon in South America: when cholera invaded countries with poor water sanitation, the strains evolved to be more virulent, while lineages that invaded areas with better sanitation evolved to be less harmful.
And that brings us back to Adenovirus-14 ("killer cold"). Adenoviruses are transmitted through the air or via contact. We might expect this sort of transmission to require a fairly healthy host (one who gets out and comes into contact with others) and, hence, to select against virulent strains. Indeed, adenoviruses are rarely killers, but in close quarters — for example, in the military barracks where Adenovirus-14 has been a particular problem — barriers to transmission may be lowered. This could open the door for the evolution of more virulent strains. Military personnel, however, are in the process of pushing this door shut again. At Lackland Air Force Base, which has seen the most serious outbreak of Adenovirus-14, wider testing, more hand-washing stations, increased attention to sanitization, and isolation of patients is helping to reduce the transmission of the disease and, in the process, may favor the evolution of less virulent strains of the virus.
https://evolution.berkeley.edu/evolibrary/news/071201_adenovirus
96lriley
This and the potential of future pandemics are a big argument for Medicare for All in the United States. With 80 + million uninsured and many millions more underinsured--those are people who aren't going to seek help until the last moment if at all. The potential is right there to massively spread this flu into every corner of our country. ACA and medicare for all who want it don't go nearly far enough and are bullshit prescriptions for stopping anything like this. The Trump administration is of course in denial and has no handle or clue how to handle this but democratic establishment politicians are equally as fucked up--more interested in protecting pharmaceutical and health insurance entities and their lobbyists than the people they're supposed to represent. This is where you say a pox on all of them.
And on the question of whether or not Trump can call a state of emergency in November and suspend elections there is real potential for that. Suppressing turnout in any case hardly ever works to the democrats benefit and when we're talking long lines of people waiting to vote at risk of picking up a virus that can kill them or those close to them who can blame anyone for not showing up?
If we had a health system that really worked we would have at least a fighting chance to contain the spread---what we have now might as well just be shit. Trump and his administration is more than incompetent enough just all on their own. Democrats defending of an inadequate and compromised ACA is almost just as worthless.
And on the question of whether or not Trump can call a state of emergency in November and suspend elections there is real potential for that. Suppressing turnout in any case hardly ever works to the democrats benefit and when we're talking long lines of people waiting to vote at risk of picking up a virus that can kill them or those close to them who can blame anyone for not showing up?
If we had a health system that really worked we would have at least a fighting chance to contain the spread---what we have now might as well just be shit. Trump and his administration is more than incompetent enough just all on their own. Democrats defending of an inadequate and compromised ACA is almost just as worthless.
98margd
Wow! China sure makes S Korea's GPS-based quarantine app (#92) look benign!
Chinese residents have begun to post scenes of officials welding the doors of apartment buildings shut.
0:31 ( https://twitter.com/cbcdocs/status/1235215036789989376 )
More on life in Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, watch 'Coronavirus' now streaming:
Coronavirus: Welding Doors
Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 10 PM ET/PT on CBC News Network Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 10 PM ET/PT on CBC News Network
Episode only available in Canada. (margd: sooner or later someone will post on youtube if past any guide.)
http://bit.ly/coronavirusCBCNN
https://www.cbc.ca/passionateeye/episodes/coronavirus
- CBC Docs @cbcdocs |9:46 AM · Mar 4, 2020
Chinese residents have begun to post scenes of officials welding the doors of apartment buildings shut.
0:31 ( https://twitter.com/cbcdocs/status/1235215036789989376 )
More on life in Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak, watch 'Coronavirus' now streaming:
Coronavirus: Welding Doors
Saturday, February 29, 2020 at 10 PM ET/PT on CBC News Network Sunday, March 1, 2020 at 10 PM ET/PT on CBC News Network
Episode only available in Canada. (margd: sooner or later someone will post on youtube if past any guide.)
http://bit.ly/coronavirusCBCNN
https://www.cbc.ca/passionateeye/episodes/coronavirus
- CBC Docs @cbcdocs |9:46 AM · Mar 4, 2020
99margd
The situation in China is even worse than you think, says this analyst with a history of accurate calls
Andrea Riquier | March 2, 2020 at 8:18 a.m. ET
...MarketWatch: Which is the single data point that’s most telling to you?
Miller: The numbers in the property sector are remarkable. It confirms this sector is at the bottom of the food chain in China right now, the last priority for Beijing in a long list of priorities. Property is extremely important because it’s the sector in which most Chinese have large portions of their wealth. Chinese people can’t get money out of the country so they’re stuck with only a few opportunities to diversify. The bond market is scary. The stock market is scary. Property has always been the least scary thing and the Chinese government has always known how important it is as a store of household wealth. It shows they’re more afraid of the bankruptcies of small and medium-sized enterprises. At least there may finally be a culling of the herd in terms of (real estate) developers and overleveraged firms allowed to die.
On the positive side, we’re seeing the job growth numbers in slight contraction. It’s remarkable they’re not much worse than that. This is an economy that could be in contraction for a long time, yet firms aren’t firing people. You can’t pay your people, you have no cash flow, no customers, so you’re paying them to stay home right now. (The lack of layoffs) is one reason you’re not seeing big-bang stimulus yet.
MarketWatch: Can you talk more about what kind of stimulus options the Chinese government does have available and how effective they can be?
Miller: The big fear is that there will be millions of firms defaulting because there’s no cash flow. The government doesn’t want that to happen, that would be a disaster. And mass layoffs would be bad for the party. So people are looking to see what China is doing as far as fiscal and monetary policy. But the state controls almost all the counterparties. The banking system is run by the state, it loans to state entities. It can order them to do whatever it needs, like not call in loans. The most important lever they have is simply not allowing banks to call in loans .
MarketWatch: What does China’s economic situation mean for the rest of the world – markets, economic growth, supply chains, and so on?
Miller: I would expect the data to get better if only because in March you’ll see firms back to work and the outbreak will hopefully be less terrible. Conditions — and data — should improve. But the implications of data anywhere near this bad is: China is an important cog in the supply and demand chains of the world. Globalization runs through China. Car factories around the world can’t build their cars because they can’t get their inputs from China. China buys a lot of commodities — oil and so on. Even if the outbreak can be contained, which doesn’t look like it, the economic impact can’t be.
MarketWatch: How should American investors parse upcoming official reports out of China?
Miller: You’ve got to figure that any report that comes out of China, whether economic or medical, is going to be political. “Take it with a grain of salt” may be too charitable. There aren’t easy ways of getting the truth. The truth is usually something between what the Wall Street banks think, which is way too optimistic and financial Twitter chatter which is too alarmist.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-situation-in-china-is-even-worse-than-you-...
Andrea Riquier | March 2, 2020 at 8:18 a.m. ET
...MarketWatch: Which is the single data point that’s most telling to you?
Miller: The numbers in the property sector are remarkable. It confirms this sector is at the bottom of the food chain in China right now, the last priority for Beijing in a long list of priorities. Property is extremely important because it’s the sector in which most Chinese have large portions of their wealth. Chinese people can’t get money out of the country so they’re stuck with only a few opportunities to diversify. The bond market is scary. The stock market is scary. Property has always been the least scary thing and the Chinese government has always known how important it is as a store of household wealth. It shows they’re more afraid of the bankruptcies of small and medium-sized enterprises. At least there may finally be a culling of the herd in terms of (real estate) developers and overleveraged firms allowed to die.
On the positive side, we’re seeing the job growth numbers in slight contraction. It’s remarkable they’re not much worse than that. This is an economy that could be in contraction for a long time, yet firms aren’t firing people. You can’t pay your people, you have no cash flow, no customers, so you’re paying them to stay home right now. (The lack of layoffs) is one reason you’re not seeing big-bang stimulus yet.
MarketWatch: Can you talk more about what kind of stimulus options the Chinese government does have available and how effective they can be?
Miller: The big fear is that there will be millions of firms defaulting because there’s no cash flow. The government doesn’t want that to happen, that would be a disaster. And mass layoffs would be bad for the party. So people are looking to see what China is doing as far as fiscal and monetary policy. But the state controls almost all the counterparties. The banking system is run by the state, it loans to state entities. It can order them to do whatever it needs, like not call in loans. The most important lever they have is simply not allowing banks to call in loans .
MarketWatch: What does China’s economic situation mean for the rest of the world – markets, economic growth, supply chains, and so on?
Miller: I would expect the data to get better if only because in March you’ll see firms back to work and the outbreak will hopefully be less terrible. Conditions — and data — should improve. But the implications of data anywhere near this bad is: China is an important cog in the supply and demand chains of the world. Globalization runs through China. Car factories around the world can’t build their cars because they can’t get their inputs from China. China buys a lot of commodities — oil and so on. Even if the outbreak can be contained, which doesn’t look like it, the economic impact can’t be.
MarketWatch: How should American investors parse upcoming official reports out of China?
Miller: You’ve got to figure that any report that comes out of China, whether economic or medical, is going to be political. “Take it with a grain of salt” may be too charitable. There aren’t easy ways of getting the truth. The truth is usually something between what the Wall Street banks think, which is way too optimistic and financial Twitter chatter which is too alarmist.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-situation-in-china-is-even-worse-than-you-...
100margd
New coronavirus infections may drop to zero by end-March in Wuhan: Chinese government expert
Mar 5, 2020
Wuhan, the epicenter of China's coronavirus epidemic, will likely see new infections drop to zero by the end of this month, an expert with the country's top panel on battling the illness said on Thursday, even as the city reported a quicker rise in new confirmed cases.
Mainland China had 139 new confirmed cases as of Wednesday, the National Health Commission (NHC) said, bringing the total accumulated number of cases to 80,409. Authorities reported 119 new cases the previous day and 125 the day before that.
The increase reversed three straight days of declines, and was driven by a rise in new infections in Wuhan, the city where the virus is believed to have emerged in a seafood market late last year.
Zhang Boli said almost all regions outside Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital, had managed to halt new infections by the end of last month, according to an interview with the official People's Daily.
He estimated other cities in Hubei will hit such a target by mid-March, based on data on how the outbreak has evolved, but did not give details.
...Chinese authorities have turned their attention to stopping the virus being brought in from new hot spots abroad. ...
http://ca.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20S02J
Mar 5, 2020
Wuhan, the epicenter of China's coronavirus epidemic, will likely see new infections drop to zero by the end of this month, an expert with the country's top panel on battling the illness said on Thursday, even as the city reported a quicker rise in new confirmed cases.
Mainland China had 139 new confirmed cases as of Wednesday, the National Health Commission (NHC) said, bringing the total accumulated number of cases to 80,409. Authorities reported 119 new cases the previous day and 125 the day before that.
The increase reversed three straight days of declines, and was driven by a rise in new infections in Wuhan, the city where the virus is believed to have emerged in a seafood market late last year.
Zhang Boli said almost all regions outside Hubei province, where Wuhan is the capital, had managed to halt new infections by the end of last month, according to an interview with the official People's Daily.
He estimated other cities in Hubei will hit such a target by mid-March, based on data on how the outbreak has evolved, but did not give details.
...Chinese authorities have turned their attention to stopping the virus being brought in from new hot spots abroad. ...
http://ca.mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKBN20S02J
101Kuiperdolin
This sounds more and more like a Democrat hoax.
I've been coughing with occasional fever for almost three months now from standing in the damp cold while breaking the transport strikes in December, they just gave me two days off and paracetamol (and then the "pharmacist" tried to cucksplain to me how to take paracetamol, fucking uppity rentseeker). Nobody cared until it was time to manufacture a crisis, now they want me to go see a doctor again. I can take paracetamol on my own and I don't want my name in a file so they can spin against the Donald while the death rate is probably less than 1%.
I've been coughing with occasional fever for almost three months now from standing in the damp cold while breaking the transport strikes in December, they just gave me two days off and paracetamol (and then the "pharmacist" tried to cucksplain to me how to take paracetamol, fucking uppity rentseeker). Nobody cared until it was time to manufacture a crisis, now they want me to go see a doctor again. I can take paracetamol on my own and I don't want my name in a file so they can spin against the Donald while the death rate is probably less than 1%.
102stellarexplorer
>101 Kuiperdolin: The virus cares not for politics. Why the President would invest his personal prestige in the outcome of a pandemic no one has the capacity to control is puzzling. But a Democratic hoax is either a joke without an emoji, or something only conceivable with a preexisting axe to grind. One thing we need in times like these is equanimity.
103davidgn
>102 stellarexplorer: It gets even better when you realize that >101 Kuiperdolin: is (purportedly) in France.
104stellarexplorer
>103 davidgn: Oh. Thank you davidgn. Need to ponder that.... :-0
106stellarexplorer
>105 LolaWalser: Quite right. It was a flippant figure of speech.
107margd
>98 margd: OTOH, two strains of Covid-19 may present a new challenge to scientists in their quest to develop a vaccine...
108margd
Coronavirus lingers in rooms and toilets, but disinfectants kill it: Singapore study
AFP | 05 Mar 2020
... patients with the novel coronavirus extensively contaminate their bedrooms and bathrooms, underscoring the need to routinely clean high-touch surfaces, basins and toilet bowls.
On the other hand, the virus was killed by twice-a-day cleaning of surfaces and daily cleaning of floors with a commonly used disinfectant, which suggests that current decontamination measures are sufficient as long as people adhere to them.
...Researchers at Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and DSO National Laboratories looked at the cases of three patients who were held in isolation rooms between late January and early February.
They collected samples from their rooms on five days over a two-week period.
The room of one patient was sampled before routine cleaning, while the rooms of the other two patients were sampled after disinfection measures.
The patient whose room was sampled before cleaning had the mildest symptoms of the three, only experiencing a cough. The other two had moderate symptoms: both had coughing and fever, one experienced shortness of breath and the other was coughing up lung mucus.
Despite this disparity, the patient whose room was sampled before cleaning contaminated 13 of 15 room sites testing, including their chair, bed rail, the glass window of their room, the floor, light switches.
Three of the five toilet sites were also contaminated, including the sink, door handle and toilet bowl - more evidence that stool can be a route of transmission.
Air samples tested negative, but swabs taken from air exhaust outlets were positive - which suggests that virus-laden droplets may be carried by air flows and deposited on vents.
"Significant environmental contamination by patients with SARS-CoV-2 through respiratory droplets and faecal shedding suggests the environment as a potential medium of transmission and supports the need for strict adherence to environmental and hand hygiene," the authors wrote.
SARS-CoV-2 is the official name of the pathogen.
...The World Health Organization said on Wednesday the mortality rate was 3.4 per cent, revising upward previous estimates.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-rooms-toilets-disinfe...
___________________________________________________________________________
Sean Wei Xiang Ong et al. 2020. Air, Surface Environmental, and Personal Protective Equipment Contamination by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) From a Symptomatic Patient (Research Letter). JAMA. Published online March 4, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3227 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762692
...Method
...Twice-daily cleaning of high-touch areas was done using 5000 ppm of sodium dichloroisocyanurate*. The floor was cleaned daily using 1000 ppm of sodium dichloroisocyanurate.
...Discussion
There was extensive environmental contamination by 1 SARS-CoV-2 patient with mild upper respiratory tract involvement. Toilet bowl and sink samples were positive, suggesting that viral shedding in stool could be a potential route of transmission. Postcleaning samples were negative, suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient.
Air samples were negative despite the extent of environmental contamination. Swabs taken from the air exhaust outlets tested positive, suggesting that small virus-laden droplets may be displaced by airflows and deposited on equipment such as vents. The positive PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) sample was unsurprising because shoe covers are not part of PPE recommendations. The risk of transmission from contaminated footwear is likely low, as evidenced by negative results in the anteroom and clean corridor.
This study has several limitations. First, viral culture was not done to demonstrate viability. Second, due to operational limitations during an outbreak, methodology was inconsistent and sample size was small. Third, the volume of air sampled represents only a small fraction of total volume, and air exchanges in the room would have diluted the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air. Further studies are required to confirm these preliminary results.
Significant environmental contamination by patients with SARS-CoV-2 through respiratory droplets and fecal shedding suggests the environment as a potential medium of transmission and supports the need for strict adherence to environmental and hand hygiene.
* Sodium dichloroisocyanurate is the sodium salt of a chlorinated hydroxytriazine and is used as a source of free available chlorine, in the form of hypochlorous acid, for the disinfection of water. It is widely used as a stable source of chlorine for the disinfection of swimming pools and in the food industry. It is also used as a means of disinfecting drinking-water, primarily in emergencies, when it provides an easy-to-use source of free chlorine, and, more recently, as the form of chlorine for household point-of-use water treatment. https://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/dwq/chemicals/sodiumdichloroisocyanu...
AFP | 05 Mar 2020
... patients with the novel coronavirus extensively contaminate their bedrooms and bathrooms, underscoring the need to routinely clean high-touch surfaces, basins and toilet bowls.
On the other hand, the virus was killed by twice-a-day cleaning of surfaces and daily cleaning of floors with a commonly used disinfectant, which suggests that current decontamination measures are sufficient as long as people adhere to them.
...Researchers at Singapore's National Centre for Infectious Diseases and DSO National Laboratories looked at the cases of three patients who were held in isolation rooms between late January and early February.
They collected samples from their rooms on five days over a two-week period.
The room of one patient was sampled before routine cleaning, while the rooms of the other two patients were sampled after disinfection measures.
The patient whose room was sampled before cleaning had the mildest symptoms of the three, only experiencing a cough. The other two had moderate symptoms: both had coughing and fever, one experienced shortness of breath and the other was coughing up lung mucus.
Despite this disparity, the patient whose room was sampled before cleaning contaminated 13 of 15 room sites testing, including their chair, bed rail, the glass window of their room, the floor, light switches.
Three of the five toilet sites were also contaminated, including the sink, door handle and toilet bowl - more evidence that stool can be a route of transmission.
Air samples tested negative, but swabs taken from air exhaust outlets were positive - which suggests that virus-laden droplets may be carried by air flows and deposited on vents.
"Significant environmental contamination by patients with SARS-CoV-2 through respiratory droplets and faecal shedding suggests the environment as a potential medium of transmission and supports the need for strict adherence to environmental and hand hygiene," the authors wrote.
SARS-CoV-2 is the official name of the pathogen.
...The World Health Organization said on Wednesday the mortality rate was 3.4 per cent, revising upward previous estimates.
https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/coronavirus-rooms-toilets-disinfe...
___________________________________________________________________________
Sean Wei Xiang Ong et al. 2020. Air, Surface Environmental, and Personal Protective Equipment Contamination by Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) From a Symptomatic Patient (Research Letter). JAMA. Published online March 4, 2020. doi:10.1001/jama.2020.3227 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762692
...Method
...Twice-daily cleaning of high-touch areas was done using 5000 ppm of sodium dichloroisocyanurate*. The floor was cleaned daily using 1000 ppm of sodium dichloroisocyanurate.
...Discussion
There was extensive environmental contamination by 1 SARS-CoV-2 patient with mild upper respiratory tract involvement. Toilet bowl and sink samples were positive, suggesting that viral shedding in stool could be a potential route of transmission. Postcleaning samples were negative, suggesting that current decontamination measures are sufficient.
Air samples were negative despite the extent of environmental contamination. Swabs taken from the air exhaust outlets tested positive, suggesting that small virus-laden droplets may be displaced by airflows and deposited on equipment such as vents. The positive PPE (Personal Protective Equipment) sample was unsurprising because shoe covers are not part of PPE recommendations. The risk of transmission from contaminated footwear is likely low, as evidenced by negative results in the anteroom and clean corridor.
This study has several limitations. First, viral culture was not done to demonstrate viability. Second, due to operational limitations during an outbreak, methodology was inconsistent and sample size was small. Third, the volume of air sampled represents only a small fraction of total volume, and air exchanges in the room would have diluted the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in the air. Further studies are required to confirm these preliminary results.
Significant environmental contamination by patients with SARS-CoV-2 through respiratory droplets and fecal shedding suggests the environment as a potential medium of transmission and supports the need for strict adherence to environmental and hand hygiene.
* Sodium dichloroisocyanurate is the sodium salt of a chlorinated hydroxytriazine and is used as a source of free available chlorine, in the form of hypochlorous acid, for the disinfection of water. It is widely used as a stable source of chlorine for the disinfection of swimming pools and in the food industry. It is also used as a means of disinfecting drinking-water, primarily in emergencies, when it provides an easy-to-use source of free chlorine, and, more recently, as the form of chlorine for household point-of-use water treatment. https://www.who.int/water_sanitation_health/dwq/chemicals/sodiumdichloroisocyanu...
109margd
EPA Releases List of Disinfectants to Use Against COVID-19*
03/05/2020
WASHINGTON (March 5, 2020) — Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a list of EPA-registered disinfectant products that have qualified for use against SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
“Using the correct disinfectant is an important part of preventing and reducing the spread of illnesses along with other critical aspects such as hand washing,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “There is no higher priority for the Trump Administration than protecting the health and safety of Americans. EPA is providing this important information in a public and transparent manner on disinfectant products to help reduce the spread of COVID-19.”
Products appearing on EPA’s list registered disinfectant products have qualified for use against COVID-19 through the agency’s Emerging Viral Pathogen program. This program allows product manufacturers to provide EPA with data, even in advance of an outbreak, that shows their products are effective against harder-to-kill viruses than SARS-CoV-2. It also allows additional communications intended to inform the public about the utility of these products against the emerging pathogen in the most expeditious manner.
Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses, meaning they are one of the easiest types of viruses to kill with the appropriate disinfectant product. Consumers using these disinfectants on an enveloped emerging virus should follow the directions for use on the product’s master label, paying close attention to the contact time for the product on the treated surface (i.e., how long the disinfectant should remain on the surface).
To view the list of EPA-registered disinfectant products, visit https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars...
Background:
EPA’s Emerging Viral Pathogen Guidance was developed and finalized in 2016 to allow for a rapid response in the event of an emerging viral pathogen outbreak. It was triggered for the first time ever for SARS-CoV-2 on January 29, 2020. The guidance outlines a voluntary, pre-approval process for making emerging viral pathogens claims. In the event of an outbreak, companies with pre-approved products can make off-label claims (for example in technical literature, non-label-related websites, and social media) for use against the outbreak virus.
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-releases-list-disinfectants-use-against-cov...
* https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-03/documents/sars-cov-2-list_03-...
03/05/2020
WASHINGTON (March 5, 2020) — Today, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) released a list of EPA-registered disinfectant products that have qualified for use against SARS-CoV-2, the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19.
“Using the correct disinfectant is an important part of preventing and reducing the spread of illnesses along with other critical aspects such as hand washing,” said EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler. “There is no higher priority for the Trump Administration than protecting the health and safety of Americans. EPA is providing this important information in a public and transparent manner on disinfectant products to help reduce the spread of COVID-19.”
Products appearing on EPA’s list registered disinfectant products have qualified for use against COVID-19 through the agency’s Emerging Viral Pathogen program. This program allows product manufacturers to provide EPA with data, even in advance of an outbreak, that shows their products are effective against harder-to-kill viruses than SARS-CoV-2. It also allows additional communications intended to inform the public about the utility of these products against the emerging pathogen in the most expeditious manner.
Coronaviruses are enveloped viruses, meaning they are one of the easiest types of viruses to kill with the appropriate disinfectant product. Consumers using these disinfectants on an enveloped emerging virus should follow the directions for use on the product’s master label, paying close attention to the contact time for the product on the treated surface (i.e., how long the disinfectant should remain on the surface).
To view the list of EPA-registered disinfectant products, visit https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars...
Background:
EPA’s Emerging Viral Pathogen Guidance was developed and finalized in 2016 to allow for a rapid response in the event of an emerging viral pathogen outbreak. It was triggered for the first time ever for SARS-CoV-2 on January 29, 2020. The guidance outlines a voluntary, pre-approval process for making emerging viral pathogens claims. In the event of an outbreak, companies with pre-approved products can make off-label claims (for example in technical literature, non-label-related websites, and social media) for use against the outbreak virus.
https://www.epa.gov/newsreleases/epa-releases-list-disinfectants-use-against-cov...
* https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2020-03/documents/sars-cov-2-list_03-...
110margd
#93, 95, 98 contd. Two strains Corona virus: scientists debate--as scientists do--origins, evolution, infectiousness, virulence.
Here’s why Chinese scientists say there’s a second, more dangerous coronavirus strain
Melissa Healy | March 5, 2020
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-05/chinese-scientists-say-second-c...
ETA__________________________________________________________
How fast can the coronavirus mutate?
Yasemin Saplakoglu | 3/6/2020
The new coronavirus, like all other viruses, mutates, or undergoes small changes in its genome.
...So, what does all of this mean for the development of a possible vaccine?
These viruses "are still so genetically similar that these mutations shouldn't alter a new vaccine," (Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health) said. It's "unlikely that the developers have to worry about this." Once the vaccine is out, however, the virus could adapt to it and develop resistance, he said, but considering that other RNA viruses — such as those that cause measles, mumps and yellow fever — didn't develop resistance to vaccines, that scenario is unlikely.
In fact, these mutations help scientists trace the steps of the virus, Grubaugh said.
For example, a group of researchers in Brazil recently isolated SARS-CoV-2 from two patients confirmed to have COVID-19 and sequenced the complete genomes of both samples of the virus. They found that not only did the genomes differ from each other, but they were also very different from the genomes of the virus samples sequenced in Wuhan, China, the researchers wrote in a report that wasn't peer-reviewed but published on a forum on Feb. 28.
The coronavirus taken from one patient in Brazil had a genome similar to that of a virus sequenced in Germany, and the virus from the second patient resembled that of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom. That means these two patients are linked to cases in Europe but not to each other, Grubaugh said.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html
Here’s why Chinese scientists say there’s a second, more dangerous coronavirus strain
Melissa Healy | March 5, 2020
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-03-05/chinese-scientists-say-second-c...
ETA__________________________________________________________
How fast can the coronavirus mutate?
Yasemin Saplakoglu | 3/6/2020
The new coronavirus, like all other viruses, mutates, or undergoes small changes in its genome.
...So, what does all of this mean for the development of a possible vaccine?
These viruses "are still so genetically similar that these mutations shouldn't alter a new vaccine," (Nathan Grubaugh, an epidemiologist at the Yale School of Public Health) said. It's "unlikely that the developers have to worry about this." Once the vaccine is out, however, the virus could adapt to it and develop resistance, he said, but considering that other RNA viruses — such as those that cause measles, mumps and yellow fever — didn't develop resistance to vaccines, that scenario is unlikely.
In fact, these mutations help scientists trace the steps of the virus, Grubaugh said.
For example, a group of researchers in Brazil recently isolated SARS-CoV-2 from two patients confirmed to have COVID-19 and sequenced the complete genomes of both samples of the virus. They found that not only did the genomes differ from each other, but they were also very different from the genomes of the virus samples sequenced in Wuhan, China, the researchers wrote in a report that wasn't peer-reviewed but published on a forum on Feb. 28.
The coronavirus taken from one patient in Brazil had a genome similar to that of a virus sequenced in Germany, and the virus from the second patient resembled that of the coronavirus in the United Kingdom. That means these two patients are linked to cases in Europe but not to each other, Grubaugh said.
https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-mutations.html
111margd
Animated global map of Covid-19 reports (last updated March 5, 2020):
https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/
https://www.healthmap.org/covid-19/
112margd
>97 2wonderY: I like putting one's hand on one's heart as replacement for handshake. :)
113margd
Never mind sick leave and free tests/care, go to work everybody! Clear out the deadwood?
(YIKES!)
This is absolutely horrifying.
Rick Santelli on CNBC says we should consider giving coronavirus to everybody to just get it over with.
That way it won’t wreak so much havoc on the economy.
This is your brain on capitalism.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1235696925778653185 )
From Brian Sapient the Planet Saver
- Joshua Potash @JoshuaPotash | 5:41 PM · Mar 5, 2020
________________________________________________________
As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP
Rosie Perper | Mar 5, 2020
...While much is still unknown about the virus, a group of Australian experts have estimated that the virus may have severe consequences on global gross domestic product.
New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.
In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million...
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-toll-global-gdp-loss-australia...
(YIKES!)
This is absolutely horrifying.
Rick Santelli on CNBC says we should consider giving coronavirus to everybody to just get it over with.
That way it won’t wreak so much havoc on the economy.
This is your brain on capitalism.
0:19 ( https://twitter.com/JoshuaPotash/status/1235696925778653185 )
From Brian Sapient the Planet Saver
- Joshua Potash @JoshuaPotash | 5:41 PM · Mar 5, 2020
________________________________________________________
As the coronavirus spreads, one study predicts that even the best-case scenario is 15 million dead and a $2.4 trillion hit to global GDP
Rosie Perper | Mar 5, 2020
...While much is still unknown about the virus, a group of Australian experts have estimated that the virus may have severe consequences on global gross domestic product.
New modeling from The Australian National University looks at seven scenarios of how the outbreak might affect the world's wealth, ranging from low severity to high severity.
In the low-severity model — or best-case scenario of the seven — ANU researchers estimate a global GDP loss of $2.4 trillion, with an estimated death toll of 15 million...
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-toll-global-gdp-loss-australia...
114margd
No welding doors as far as I could see, but I bet South Korea's GPS-based quarantine app could get some consideration if it got really bad in US?
Quarantine and Isolation Authorities in States Affected by COVID-19
Samantha Fry, Masha Simonova | March 6, 2020
...We have prioritized states by the number of confirmed cases—Washington, Illinois, California, Arizona, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New York and Rhode Island—as of March 5, and we will continue to add summaries as more states announce new cases. A list of relevant statutory authority for all states is also available on the National Conference of State Legislatures website ( https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/state-quarantine-and-isolation-statutes.asp... )...
Washington...
Illinois...
California...
Arizona...
Massachusetts...
Wisconsin...
New York...
New York City...
Rhode Island...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/quarantine-and-isolation-authorities-states-affected...
Quarantine and Isolation Authorities in States Affected by COVID-19
Samantha Fry, Masha Simonova | March 6, 2020
...We have prioritized states by the number of confirmed cases—Washington, Illinois, California, Arizona, Massachusetts, Wisconsin, New York and Rhode Island—as of March 5, and we will continue to add summaries as more states announce new cases. A list of relevant statutory authority for all states is also available on the National Conference of State Legislatures website ( https://www.ncsl.org/research/health/state-quarantine-and-isolation-statutes.asp... )...
Washington...
Illinois...
California...
Arizona...
Massachusetts...
Wisconsin...
New York...
New York City...
Rhode Island...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/quarantine-and-isolation-authorities-states-affected...
115margd
How Italy Is Handling the Coronavirus
Chiara De Cuia | March 6, 2020
...National and Regional Responses
...Institutions on the Front Lines
...A State of Uncertainty...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-italy-handling-coronavirus
Chiara De Cuia | March 6, 2020
...National and Regional Responses
...Institutions on the Front Lines
...A State of Uncertainty...
https://www.lawfareblog.com/how-italy-handling-coronavirus
116John5918
Why I’m taking the coronavirus hype with a pinch of salt (Guardian)
Never, ever, should a government use war as a metaphor in a time of peace. Britain is not at war with coronavirus. The phrase and its cognates should be banned. Those who exploit them to heighten panic and win obedience to authority should be dismissed from public office.
Last week the prime minister, Boris Johnson, leaped from two weeks of inertia to give his Churchill impersonation...
War is the absolute last resort of a nation facing existential collapse. It implies extreme violence. Words such as battles, fights, enemies and threats to nations are clearly directed at accreting power and suspending liberty. They encourage xenophobia and attacks on supposed “enemy agents” – at present, Asian communities. To promote this under the cover of any “worst-case scenario” is inexcusable...
Both {UK health secretary} Hancock and Britain’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, have struggled to contain the alarm. The government’s action plan pointed out that the virus is highly contagious, but the “great majority” of those who develop symptoms will experience only a “mild-to-moderate but self-limiting illness”. Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm. Not so politicians and the media...
Of course, I could be wrong. I could get ill. Millions could die. But it is also possible that come the spring, this crisis will have passed. So for the moment, if you see a virus story containing “might” “could” “possibly” or “worst-case scenario”, stop reading. You are being fed war talk. Let them wash your hands, but not your brain.
Never, ever, should a government use war as a metaphor in a time of peace. Britain is not at war with coronavirus. The phrase and its cognates should be banned. Those who exploit them to heighten panic and win obedience to authority should be dismissed from public office.
Last week the prime minister, Boris Johnson, leaped from two weeks of inertia to give his Churchill impersonation...
War is the absolute last resort of a nation facing existential collapse. It implies extreme violence. Words such as battles, fights, enemies and threats to nations are clearly directed at accreting power and suspending liberty. They encourage xenophobia and attacks on supposed “enemy agents” – at present, Asian communities. To promote this under the cover of any “worst-case scenario” is inexcusable...
Both {UK health secretary} Hancock and Britain’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, have struggled to contain the alarm. The government’s action plan pointed out that the virus is highly contagious, but the “great majority” of those who develop symptoms will experience only a “mild-to-moderate but self-limiting illness”. Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm. Not so politicians and the media...
Of course, I could be wrong. I could get ill. Millions could die. But it is also possible that come the spring, this crisis will have passed. So for the moment, if you see a virus story containing “might” “could” “possibly” or “worst-case scenario”, stop reading. You are being fed war talk. Let them wash your hands, but not your brain.
117stellarexplorer
>116 John5918: You make a valid point, well taken. But I feel we must also acknowledge the difficulty and fine line we must navigate to convey the serious nature of the problem and the urgent need for rational preparation, as well as the individual obligation to society at large, without inciting undue anxiety and alarm.
118John5918
>117 stellarexplorer:
No disagreement with you there, with the emphasis on "rational preparation" rather than media hype or political manoeuvring. As the article says, "Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm. Not so politicians and the media..."
No disagreement with you there, with the emphasis on "rational preparation" rather than media hype or political manoeuvring. As the article says, "Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm. Not so politicians and the media..."
119stellarexplorer
>118 John5918: Yes. The second to last thing that is needed is histrionic hype. The very last is negligent misinformation from political leaders.
120margd
Interim US Guidance for Risk Assessment and Public Health Management of Persons with Potential Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Exposures: Geographic Risk and Contacts of Laboratory-confirmed Cases
Updated March 5, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/risk-assessment.html
________________________________________________________
How to Quarantine Yourself
Roni Caryn Rabin | March 6, 2020
...The basics
Isolation
If you are infected or have been exposed to the coronavirus, you must seclude yourself from your partner, your housemates, your children, your elderly aunt. You shouldn’t even pet your dog. And definitely no snuggling with your pet (no licking).
If you don’t have your own room, one should be designated for your exclusive use. You should use a separate bathroom, if you have one.
No visitors, and no staff, unless it’s absolutely essential. Don’t take the bus or subway, not even a taxi.
Masks If you must be around other people — in your home, or in a car, because you’re on your way to see a doctor, and only after you called first — you should wear a mask, and everyone else should, too.
But first, you or one of your friends or family members have to find masks, which are sold out almost everywhere.
Hygiene
If you cough or sneeze, you should cover your mouth and nose with a tissue, and discard the used tissue in a lined trash can. Then you must immediately wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
You can use sanitizer, if you can find it, but soap and water are preferred.
Even if you haven’t coughed or sneezed, you should wash your hands frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, if you haven’t just washed them.
Disinfect
Don’t share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels or bedding with anyone (including your pets). Wash these items after you use them.
Countertops, tabletops, doorknobs, bathrooms fixtures, toilets, phones, keyboards, tablets and bedside tables are considered “high-touch surfaces” — wipe them often with a household cleanser.
Frequently wipe down surfaces that may be contaminated by bodily fluids, including blood and stool.
Monitoring
Keep an eye on your health and call a doctor if your symptoms are getting worse. Make sure to tell the medical staff you are being monitored for the coronavirus.
Household members Family members and other occupants should monitor the patient’s symptoms and call a health provider if they see a turn for the worse.
Housemates can go to work or school, but it’s going to be their job to stock up on groceries, pick up prescriptions, take care of the quarantined and keep the place clean. They’ll be wiping down doorknobs and countertops, doing loads of laundry and washing their hands — a lot.
When around the patient, household members must wear a face mask, and both mask and gloves if they have contact with his or her bodily fluids. These should be thrown away immediately, never reused.
Elderly members of the household and those with chronic medical conditions are at particular risk if they are infected. Contact with the secluded individual should be minimized.
Other occupants of the home should wash their hands frequently and avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands. They should stay in a room separate from that of the exposed or sick individual. If feasible, other members of the household should not share a bathroom with the secluded person.
They should monitor their own health, too, and call a doctor if they develop a cough, fever or shortness of breath...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/health/self-quarantine-coronavirus.html
Updated March 5, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/risk-assessment.html
________________________________________________________
How to Quarantine Yourself
Roni Caryn Rabin | March 6, 2020
...The basics
Isolation
If you are infected or have been exposed to the coronavirus, you must seclude yourself from your partner, your housemates, your children, your elderly aunt. You shouldn’t even pet your dog. And definitely no snuggling with your pet (no licking).
If you don’t have your own room, one should be designated for your exclusive use. You should use a separate bathroom, if you have one.
No visitors, and no staff, unless it’s absolutely essential. Don’t take the bus or subway, not even a taxi.
Masks If you must be around other people — in your home, or in a car, because you’re on your way to see a doctor, and only after you called first — you should wear a mask, and everyone else should, too.
But first, you or one of your friends or family members have to find masks, which are sold out almost everywhere.
Hygiene
If you cough or sneeze, you should cover your mouth and nose with a tissue, and discard the used tissue in a lined trash can. Then you must immediately wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds.
You can use sanitizer, if you can find it, but soap and water are preferred.
Even if you haven’t coughed or sneezed, you should wash your hands frequently, and avoid touching your eyes, nose and mouth, if you haven’t just washed them.
Disinfect
Don’t share dishes, drinking glasses, cups, eating utensils, towels or bedding with anyone (including your pets). Wash these items after you use them.
Countertops, tabletops, doorknobs, bathrooms fixtures, toilets, phones, keyboards, tablets and bedside tables are considered “high-touch surfaces” — wipe them often with a household cleanser.
Frequently wipe down surfaces that may be contaminated by bodily fluids, including blood and stool.
Monitoring
Keep an eye on your health and call a doctor if your symptoms are getting worse. Make sure to tell the medical staff you are being monitored for the coronavirus.
Household members Family members and other occupants should monitor the patient’s symptoms and call a health provider if they see a turn for the worse.
Housemates can go to work or school, but it’s going to be their job to stock up on groceries, pick up prescriptions, take care of the quarantined and keep the place clean. They’ll be wiping down doorknobs and countertops, doing loads of laundry and washing their hands — a lot.
When around the patient, household members must wear a face mask, and both mask and gloves if they have contact with his or her bodily fluids. These should be thrown away immediately, never reused.
Elderly members of the household and those with chronic medical conditions are at particular risk if they are infected. Contact with the secluded individual should be minimized.
Other occupants of the home should wash their hands frequently and avoid touching eyes, nose and mouth with unwashed hands. They should stay in a room separate from that of the exposed or sick individual. If feasible, other members of the household should not share a bathroom with the secluded person.
They should monitor their own health, too, and call a doctor if they develop a cough, fever or shortness of breath...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/health/self-quarantine-coronavirus.html
121davidgn
Worthwhile snippet on how "testing" "works" -- at least in Redmond, WA.
https://youtu.be/4InhmRCIpow?t=1360
https://youtu.be/4InhmRCIpow?t=1360
122margd
>21 margd: Sounds like testing is bigly scandal...
Not only does US shortage of tests interfere with efforts to contain the virus,
people who have had COVID-19 can't be sure that they have immunity, so not available to help if needed?
With Test Kits in Short Supply, Health Officials Sound Alarms
Katie Thomas, Sarah Kliff and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs | March 7, 2020, 4:08 a.m. ET
President Trump claimed again on Friday that anyone who needed a coronavirus test “gets a test.” But from Washington State to Florida to New York, doctors and patients are clamoring for tests that they say are in woefully short supply, and their frustration is mounting alongside the growing number of cases around the country...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/health/testing-coronavirus.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump says, ‘Anybody who wants a test gets a test’ after Pence says US can’t meet coronavirus testing demand
Lauren Hirsch | Mar 6 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/trump-anybody-who-wants-a-test-gets-a-test-amid-...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump calls Inslee a 'snake' over criticism of coronavirus rhetoric
MATTHEW CHOI | 03/06/2020
The president went off on Inslee for saying that he wanted Trump to stick to the science when discussing the coronavirus outbreak....
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/donald-trump-jay-inslee-coronavirus-123...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA
Columbia U doctor on federal response to coronavirus: ‘gross amateur hour incompetence’ (03:58)
Katy Tur | March 6, 2020
This morning President Trump signed an emergency bill for $8.4 billion coronavirus funding. Dr. Irwin Redlener, Director Of Columbia University's National Center For Disaster Preparedness joins Yasmin Vossoughian to discuss the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/columbia-u-doctor-on-federal-response-to-co...
Not only does US shortage of tests interfere with efforts to contain the virus,
people who have had COVID-19 can't be sure that they have immunity, so not available to help if needed?
With Test Kits in Short Supply, Health Officials Sound Alarms
Katie Thomas, Sarah Kliff and Nicholas Bogel-Burroughs | March 7, 2020, 4:08 a.m. ET
President Trump claimed again on Friday that anyone who needed a coronavirus test “gets a test.” But from Washington State to Florida to New York, doctors and patients are clamoring for tests that they say are in woefully short supply, and their frustration is mounting alongside the growing number of cases around the country...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/06/health/testing-coronavirus.html
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump says, ‘Anybody who wants a test gets a test’ after Pence says US can’t meet coronavirus testing demand
Lauren Hirsch | Mar 6 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/06/trump-anybody-who-wants-a-test-gets-a-test-amid-...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trump calls Inslee a 'snake' over criticism of coronavirus rhetoric
MATTHEW CHOI | 03/06/2020
The president went off on Inslee for saying that he wanted Trump to stick to the science when discussing the coronavirus outbreak....
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/06/donald-trump-jay-inslee-coronavirus-123...
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ETA
Columbia U doctor on federal response to coronavirus: ‘gross amateur hour incompetence’ (03:58)
Katy Tur | March 6, 2020
This morning President Trump signed an emergency bill for $8.4 billion coronavirus funding. Dr. Irwin Redlener, Director Of Columbia University's National Center For Disaster Preparedness joins Yasmin Vossoughian to discuss the federal response to the coronavirus outbreak.
https://www.msnbc.com/katy-tur/watch/columbia-u-doctor-on-federal-response-to-co...
123rastaphrog
“I like the numbers being where they are,” Trump said. “I don’t need to have the numbers double because of one ship.”
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-made-a-damning-admission-about-why-he-wan...
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/trump-made-a-damning-admission-about-why-he-wan...
124margd
As part of American Hospital Association webinar presentation to hospitals,
Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his
"best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US:
"Prepare for disease burden roughly 10X severe flu season.", i.e., as many as 480,000 deaths...
One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds
Lydia Ramsey | 3/7/2020
Hospitals are confronting the rising threat of the novel coronavirus in the US.
The spread of the coronavirus outbreak in the US could push the healthcare system to its limits.
In a February webinar presentation hosted by the American Hospital Association, an expert laid out "best guess" estimates about how many Americans could be impacted.
He projected that there could be as many as 96 million cases in the US, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 deaths associated with the novel coronavirus...The slide does not give a particular time frame.
...Lawler isn't alone in anticipating widespread infections. Marc Lipsitch an epidemiology professor at Harvard University told The Atlantic he predicts anywhere from 40-70% of people globally will be infected with the novel coronavirus within the next year...
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting discussion on the stats and hospital readiness at https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864
Dr. James Lawler, a professor at the University of Nebraska Medical Center gave his
"best guess" estimates of how much the virus might spread in the US:
"Prepare for disease burden roughly 10X severe flu season.", i.e., as many as 480,000 deaths...
One slide in a leaked presentation for US hospitals reveals that they're preparing for millions of hospitalizations as the outbreak unfolds
Lydia Ramsey | 3/7/2020
Hospitals are confronting the rising threat of the novel coronavirus in the US.
The spread of the coronavirus outbreak in the US could push the healthcare system to its limits.
In a February webinar presentation hosted by the American Hospital Association, an expert laid out "best guess" estimates about how many Americans could be impacted.
He projected that there could be as many as 96 million cases in the US, 4.8 million hospitalizations, and 480,000 deaths associated with the novel coronavirus...The slide does not give a particular time frame.
...Lawler isn't alone in anticipating widespread infections. Marc Lipsitch an epidemiology professor at Harvard University told The Atlantic he predicts anywhere from 40-70% of people globally will be infected with the novel coronavirus within the next year...
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Interesting discussion on the stats and hospital readiness at https://twitter.com/sethbannon/status/1236125593290276864
125davidgn
A rather grim picture on the US situation:
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
If you'd like it read to you, Chris Martenson will oblige:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
Assoc. Director of Science & Technology
@GoodFoodInst
. Supporting alternative proteins for a sustainable food future. UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. Views my own.
I'll just quote the whole thing.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236095180459003909.html
If you'd like it read to you, Chris Martenson will oblige:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3etuaYTDwFI
Liz Specht
@LizSpecht
Assoc. Director of Science & Technology
@GoodFoodInst
. Supporting alternative proteins for a sustainable food future. UCSD PhD, JHU ChemBE. Views my own.
I'll just quote the whole thing.
I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet. Let’s talk math. 1/n
Let’s conservatively assume that there are 2,000 current cases in the US today, March 6th. This is about 8x the number of confirmed (lab-diagnosed) cases. We know there is substantial under-Dx due to lack of test kits; I’ll address implications later of under-/over-estimate. 2/n
We can expect that we’ll continue to see a doubling of cases every 6 days (this is a typical doubling time across several epidemiological studies). Here I mean *actual* cases. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster in the short term due to new test kit rollouts. 3/n
We’re looking at about 1M US cases by the end of April, 2M by ~May 5, 4M by ~May 11, and so on. Exponentials are hard to grasp, but this is how they go. 4/n
As the healthcare system begins to saturate under this case load, it will become increasingly hard to detect, track, and contain new transmission chains. In absence of extreme interventions, this likely won’t slow significantly until hitting > 1% of susceptible population. 5/n
What does a case load of this size mean for healthcare system? We’ll examine just two factors — hospital beds and masks — among many, many other things that will be impacted. 6/n
The US has about 2.8 hospital beds per 1000 people. With a population of 330M, this is ~1M beds. At any given time, 65% of those beds are already occupied. That leaves about 330k beds available nationwide (perhaps a bit fewer this time of year with regular flu season, etc). 7/n
Let’s trust Italy’s numbers and assume that about 10% of cases are serious enough to require hospitalization. (Keep in mind that for many patients, hospitalization lasts for *weeks* — in other words, turnover will be *very* slow as beds fill with COVID19 patients). 8/n
By this estimate, by about May 8th, all open hospital beds in the US will be filled. (This says nothing, of course, about whether these beds are suitable for isolation of patients with a highly infectious virus.) 9/n
If we’re wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by 6 days in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by ~May 2nd. 10/n
If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until ~May 14th. 2.5% gets us to May 20th. This, of course, assumes that there is no uptick in demand for beds from *other* (non-COVID19) causes, which seems like a dubious assumption. 11/n
As healthcare system becomes increasingly burdened, Rx shortages, etc, people w/ chronic conditions that are normally well-managed may find themselves slipping into severe states of medical distress requiring intensive care & hospitalization. But let’s ignore that for now. 12/n
Alright, so that’s beds. Now masks. Feds say we have a national stockpile of 12M N95 masks and 30M surgical masks (which are not ideal, but better than nothing). 13/n
There are about 18M healthcare workers in the US. Let’s assume only 6M HCW are working on any given day. (This is likely an underestimate as most people work most days of the week, but again, I’m playing conservative at every turn.) 14/n
As COVID19 cases saturate virtually every state and county, which seems likely to happen any day now, it will soon be irresponsible for all HCWs to not wear a mask. These HCWs would burn through N95 stockpile in 2 days if each HCW only got ONE mask per day. 15/n
One per day would be neither sanitary nor pragmatic, though this is indeed what we saw in Wuhan, with HCWs collapsing on their shift from dehydration because they were trying to avoid changing their PPE suits as they cannot be reused. 16/n
How quickly could we ramp up production of new masks? Not very fast at all. The vast majority are manufactured overseas, almost all in China. Even when manufactured here in US, the raw materials are predominantly from overseas... again, predominantly from China. 17/n
Keep in mind that all countries globally will be going through the exact same crises and shortages simultaneously. We can’t force trade in our favor. 18/n
Now consider how these 2 factors – bed and mask shortages – compound each other’s severity. Full hospitals + few masks + HCWs running around between beds without proper PPE = very bad mix. 19/n
HCWs are already getting infected even w/ access to full PPE. In the face of PPE limitations this severe, it’s only a matter of time. HCWs will start dropping from the workforce for weeks at a time, leading to a shortage of HCWs that then further compounds both issues above. 20/n
We could go on and on about thousands of factors – # of ventilators, or even simple things like saline drip bags. You see where this is going. 21/n
Importantly, I cannot stress this enough: even if I’m wrong – even VERY wrong – about core assumptions like % of severe cases or current case #, it only changes the timeline by days or weeks. This is how exponential growth in an immunologically naïve population works. 22/n
Undeserved panic does no one any good. But neither does ill-informed complacency. It’s wrong to assuage the public by saying “only 2% will die.” People aren’t adequately grasping the national and global systemic burden wrought by this swift-moving of a disease. 23/n
I’m an engineer. This is what my mind does all day: I run back-of-the-envelope calculations to try to estimate order-of-magnitude impacts. I’ve been on high alarm about this disease since ~Jan 19 after reading clinical indicators in the first papers emerging from Wuhan. 24/n
Nothing in the last 6 weeks has dampened my alarm in the slightest. To the contrary, we’re seeing abject refusal of many countries to adequately respond or prepare. Of course some of these estimates will be
wrong, even substantially wrong. 25/n
But I have no reason to think they’ll be orders-of-magnitude wrong. Even if your personal risk of death is very, very low, don’t mock decisions like canceling events or closing workplaces as undue “panic”. 26/n
These measures are the bare minimum we should be doing to try to shift the peak – to slow the rise in cases so that healthcare systems are less overwhelmed. Each day that we can delay an extra case is a big win for the HC system. 27/n
And yes, you really should prepare to buckle down for a bit. All services and supply chains will be impacted. Why risk the stress of being ill-prepared? 28/n
Worst case, I’m massively wrong and you now have a huge bag of rice and black beans to burn through over the next few months and enough Robitussin to trip out. 29/n
One more thought: you’ve probably seen multiple respected epidemiologists have estimated that 20-70% of world will be infected within the next year. If you use 6-day doubling rate I mentioned above, we land at ~2-6 billion infected by sometime in July of this year. 30/n
Obviously I think the doubling time will start to slow once a sizeable fraction of the population has been infected, simply because of herd immunity and a smaller susceptible population. 31/n
But take the scenarios above (full beds, no PPE, etc, at just 1% of the US population infected) and stretch them out over just a couple extra months. 32/n
That timeline roughly fits with consensus end-game numbers from these highly esteemed epidemiologists. Again, we’re talking about discrepancies of mere days or weeks one direction or another, but not disagreements in the overall magnitude of the challenge. 33/n
This is not some hypothetical, fear-mongering, worst-case scenario. This is reality, as far as anyone can tell with the current available data. 34/n
That’s all for now. Standard disclaimers apply: I’m a PhD biologist but *not* an epidemiologist. Thoughts my own. Yadda yadda. Stay safe out there. /end
126John5918
Amtrak suspends nonstop Acela service between DC and New York as demand weakens amid coronavirus (CNBC)
Amtrak is canceling its high-speed Acela nonstop service between Washington, D.C. and New York through late May as consumer demand weakens amid concern over the coronavirus outbreak.
“As we are experiencing some reduced demand for our service, we are making temporary adjustments to our schedule, such as removing train cars or cancelling trains when there is a convenient alternative with a similar schedule that will have minimal impact to customers,” Amtrak said in a statement...
Amtrak is canceling its high-speed Acela nonstop service between Washington, D.C. and New York through late May as consumer demand weakens amid concern over the coronavirus outbreak.
“As we are experiencing some reduced demand for our service, we are making temporary adjustments to our schedule, such as removing train cars or cancelling trains when there is a convenient alternative with a similar schedule that will have minimal impact to customers,” Amtrak said in a statement...
127davidgn
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/03/how-many-americans-have-been-...
It’s one of the most urgent questions in the United States right now: How many people have actually been tested for the coronavirus?
This number would give a sense of how widespread the disease is, and how forceful a response to it the United States is mustering. But for days, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has refused to publish such a count, despite public anxiety and criticism from Congress. On Monday, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, estimated that “by the end of this week, close to a million tests will be able to be performed” in the United States. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would be available this week.
But the number of tests performed across the country has fallen far short of those projections, despite extraordinarily high demand, The Atlantic has found.
“The CDC got this right with H1N1 and Zika, and produced huge quantities of test kits that went around the country,” Thomas Frieden, the director of the CDC from 2009 to 2017, told us. “I don’t know what went wrong this time.”
Through interviews with dozens of public-health officials and a survey of local data from across the country, The Atlantic could only verify that 1,895 people have been tested for the coronavirus in the United States, about 10 percent of whom have tested positive.
128John5918
>116 John5918: to >119 stellarexplorer:
There's an opinion piece in yesterday's Daily Nation here in Kenya entitled "False information: Total assault on reason evident in Covid-19 debate", about false information and rumour-mongering on social media. It contains the ironic line, "In the wake of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), which seems to to be spreading at a slower rate than the messages..." and goes on to suggest that these sort of messages "become the vehicle that drives senseless panic, xenopohobia and sinophobia (anti-Chinese sentiments), with the latter being felt more heavily than the others". Like most of sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has no confirmed cases yet, but it does have a huge number of Chinese workers building the standard gauge railway and other infrastructure projects.
There's an opinion piece in yesterday's Daily Nation here in Kenya entitled "False information: Total assault on reason evident in Covid-19 debate", about false information and rumour-mongering on social media. It contains the ironic line, "In the wake of the coronavirus disease (Covid-19), which seems to to be spreading at a slower rate than the messages..." and goes on to suggest that these sort of messages "become the vehicle that drives senseless panic, xenopohobia and sinophobia (anti-Chinese sentiments), with the latter being felt more heavily than the others". Like most of sub-Saharan Africa, Kenya has no confirmed cases yet, but it does have a huge number of Chinese workers building the standard gauge railway and other infrastructure projects.
129lriley
Sporting events all over Europe have either been cancelled or being played inside empty arenas. The IIHF has cancelled its Women's Hockey Championships which were scheduled at the end of this month in Truro and Halifax Nova Scotia. Both the NBA (Lebron James says he won't play to an empty arena) and the NHL are considering cancelling, suspending or playing games inside empty arenas as well. This is at a time when those leagues are going through their playoff push which officially begins in April and goes into June. Anyway once they start cancelling and suspending or playing to empty arenas I think that will go on for a while.
I'll again say the United States is more vulnerable than most countries to this. We've made health care all about profit for those entities that run it--whether they're insurance or pharmaceutical companies or whatever that feeds off of this greed. It is unaffordable for at least a third of our population. This flies by the head of Trump but even for many democratic politicians the system the way it is is how they want it and many of them are lobbied and many of them are looking for plum lobbying jobs after they leave congress or the Senate.
I'll again say the United States is more vulnerable than most countries to this. We've made health care all about profit for those entities that run it--whether they're insurance or pharmaceutical companies or whatever that feeds off of this greed. It is unaffordable for at least a third of our population. This flies by the head of Trump but even for many democratic politicians the system the way it is is how they want it and many of them are lobbied and many of them are looking for plum lobbying jobs after they leave congress or the Senate.
130davidgn
https://theweek.com/articles/898855/coronavirus-might-end-international-travel-k...
Here is a scenario I find all too plausible: President Trump drops his surprisingly laissez-faire approach to coronavirus and shifts authoritarian. He uses the threat of a pandemic to severely restrict international travel to the United States and institutes stringent new limits on U.S. citizens' ability to travel abroad — perhaps mandatory medical testing, biometric data collection, or vaccination before you leave; extended interviews with Customs agents to vet the reasons for your trip; or even a near-complete embargo on visits to China and other countries where coronavirus outbreak coincides, in Trump's mind, with an economic threat to America. ("You never want a serious crisis to go to waste," after all, because "it's an opportunity to do things that you think you could not before.")
And then, a few years down the line, after the worst of coronavirus has passed, the new rules simply never go away....
This would not be the first time a crisis has been used to fundamentally change global mobility: Just over a century ago, the passport system we now take for granted did not yet exist....
131John5918
>130 davidgn:
Italy has already taken some pretty drastic measures, locking down about a cquarter of the country (Guardian link).
In the early hours of Sunday, Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree enacting forced quarantine for the region of Lombardy – home to more than 10 million people and the financial capital, Milan – and multiple other provinces, totalling around 16 million residents...
The lockdown decree includes the power to impose fines on anyone caught entering or leaving Lombardy, the worst-affected region, until 3 April. It provides for the banning of all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs. Religious ceremonies such as funerals and weddings will also be prohibited, and leave for healthcare workers has been cancelled...
Italy has already taken some pretty drastic measures, locking down about a cquarter of the country (Guardian link).
In the early hours of Sunday, Italian prime minister Giuseppe Conte signed a decree enacting forced quarantine for the region of Lombardy – home to more than 10 million people and the financial capital, Milan – and multiple other provinces, totalling around 16 million residents...
The lockdown decree includes the power to impose fines on anyone caught entering or leaving Lombardy, the worst-affected region, until 3 April. It provides for the banning of all public events, closing cinemas, theatres, gyms, discos and pubs. Religious ceremonies such as funerals and weddings will also be prohibited, and leave for healthcare workers has been cancelled...
132RickHarsch
>131 John5918: At the same time, neighboring Slovenia has done nothing. A 15 mintue drive from my home (Trieste), all schools were closed in the latter half of February, until March 1, which was extended to March 15, and now at least April 3. Here, the first case was reported last Tuesday, I think. Soon it was up to 12 in at least 3 cities. In one case, a couple returned from Italy and sought tests. The husband, a doctor, tested positive. The wife, some kind of hospital worker, tested negative--and so went to work, where three days later was found to have the virus. Any lay person casually following the news would have known better. Today there are 16 cases. No measures have been announced.
133margd
The most vulnerable among us...
This nursing home is at the center of Washington's coronavirus. Here's what one first responder saw there
Jake Tapper | March 8, 2020
This nursing home is at the center of Washington's coronavirus. Here's what one first responder saw there
(CNN)When first responders reported last week to a hard-hit nursing home in Washington state, the epicenter of the nation's coronavirus outbreak, they found an understaffed facility with inadequate gear attempting to serve dozens of patients vulnerable to catching the virus.
Just three staff members reported to Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to serve about 90 residents, a first responder familiar with the situation told CNN. Still, neither the King County Health Department nor the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent personnel Thursday to provide assistance -- though they have since.
First responders were concerned that staff members were not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment to handle the high number of patients with probable coronavirus. They also arrived to the facility to find employees using positive pressure bag valve masks to ventilate potential coronavirus patients -- even though firefighters have been told not to use such masks, as they can disperse more particulate into the air, the responder said.
...As of Saturday night, there were at least 19 deaths in the United States -- at least 14 of them tied to the Life Care Center in Kirkland alone, according to a Seattle and King County Public Health news release...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/coronavirus-washington-nursing-home-life...
This nursing home is at the center of Washington's coronavirus. Here's what one first responder saw there
Jake Tapper | March 8, 2020
This nursing home is at the center of Washington's coronavirus. Here's what one first responder saw there
(CNN)When first responders reported last week to a hard-hit nursing home in Washington state, the epicenter of the nation's coronavirus outbreak, they found an understaffed facility with inadequate gear attempting to serve dozens of patients vulnerable to catching the virus.
Just three staff members reported to Life Care Center in Kirkland, Washington, between Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to serve about 90 residents, a first responder familiar with the situation told CNN. Still, neither the King County Health Department nor the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent personnel Thursday to provide assistance -- though they have since.
First responders were concerned that staff members were not wearing appropriate personal protective equipment to handle the high number of patients with probable coronavirus. They also arrived to the facility to find employees using positive pressure bag valve masks to ventilate potential coronavirus patients -- even though firefighters have been told not to use such masks, as they can disperse more particulate into the air, the responder said.
...As of Saturday night, there were at least 19 deaths in the United States -- at least 14 of them tied to the Life Care Center in Kirkland alone, according to a Seattle and King County Public Health news release...
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/08/politics/coronavirus-washington-nursing-home-life...
134margd
In 39 posts, U of New South Wales chemistry professor Palli Thordarson explains
Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses?
But why exactly is soap so good?
...similar molecules appear to interact more strongly with each other than dissimilar ones. Wood, fabric and not to mention skin interact fairly strongly with viruses.
etc.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236549305189597189.html
Why does soap work so well on the SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus and indeed most viruses?
But why exactly is soap so good?
...similar molecules appear to interact more strongly with each other than dissimilar ones. Wood, fabric and not to mention skin interact fairly strongly with viruses.
etc.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1236549305189597189.html
135margd
Gates-funded program will soon offer home-testing kits for new coronavirus
Sandi Doughton | March 8, 2020 at 6:00 am
Testing for the novel coronavirus in the Seattle area will get a huge boost in the coming weeks as a project funded by Bill Gates and his foundation begins offering home-testing kits that will allow people who fear they may be infected to swab their noses and send the samples back for analysis.
Results, which should be available in one to two days, will be shared with local health officials who will notify those who test positive. Via online forms, infected people can answer questions about their movements and contacts, making it easier for health officials to locate others who may need to be tested or quarantined, as well as to track the virus’ spread and identify possible hot spots.
Initially, the lab will be able to conduct about 400 tests a day, eventually expanding to thousands of tests a day, said Scott Dowell, leader of coronavirus response at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is ramping up as quickly as possible, but it’s not clear exactly when it will launch, he added. Among other things, software needs to be upgraded to handle the expected crush of requests, and a detailed questionnaire finalized for people who request tests...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gates-funded-program-will-soon-...
Sandi Doughton | March 8, 2020 at 6:00 am
Testing for the novel coronavirus in the Seattle area will get a huge boost in the coming weeks as a project funded by Bill Gates and his foundation begins offering home-testing kits that will allow people who fear they may be infected to swab their noses and send the samples back for analysis.
Results, which should be available in one to two days, will be shared with local health officials who will notify those who test positive. Via online forms, infected people can answer questions about their movements and contacts, making it easier for health officials to locate others who may need to be tested or quarantined, as well as to track the virus’ spread and identify possible hot spots.
Initially, the lab will be able to conduct about 400 tests a day, eventually expanding to thousands of tests a day, said Scott Dowell, leader of coronavirus response at the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. The project is ramping up as quickly as possible, but it’s not clear exactly when it will launch, he added. Among other things, software needs to be upgraded to handle the expected crush of requests, and a detailed questionnaire finalized for people who request tests...
https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/gates-funded-program-will-soon-...
136John5918
Coronavirus crisis exposes limitations of Trump's alternate reality (CNN)
President Donald Trump's trusted method for winning his battles -- flinging disinformation, alternative facts and biting attacks at his enemies -- is being exposed by coronavirus, a rare force that is impervious to political pressure...
Letter from Africa: The spread of coronavirus prejudice in Kenya (BBC)
Kenyan journalist Waihiga Mwaura reflects on how the coronavirus has fuelled anti-Chinese prejudice in his country.
Despite the concerns around the spread of the coronavirus, the greatest enemy is not the virus itself, but "fears, rumours and stigma".
Not my words, but those of the Ethiopian who is leading the global effort to lessen the impact of Covid-19. The World Health Organization chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, was responding at the end of last month to cases of anti-Chinese prejudice...
President Donald Trump's trusted method for winning his battles -- flinging disinformation, alternative facts and biting attacks at his enemies -- is being exposed by coronavirus, a rare force that is impervious to political pressure...
Letter from Africa: The spread of coronavirus prejudice in Kenya (BBC)
Kenyan journalist Waihiga Mwaura reflects on how the coronavirus has fuelled anti-Chinese prejudice in his country.
Despite the concerns around the spread of the coronavirus, the greatest enemy is not the virus itself, but "fears, rumours and stigma".
Not my words, but those of the Ethiopian who is leading the global effort to lessen the impact of Covid-19. The World Health Organization chief, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, was responding at the end of last month to cases of anti-Chinese prejudice...
137davidgn
Of particular use to Americans, perhaps, but here is the ACC's list of COVID-19 killing sanitizing products. https://www.americanchemistry.com/Novel-Coronavirus-Fighting-Products-List.pdf
Picked up some of these: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008XJW76U/
via Subscribe and Save (for delivery late this month) Huge price differential, with one in-stock seller at double the price. (Note Amazon is offering for $14.99). Clorox may still be still cheaper if you can get a hold of it online, but some less recognized brands may not get as much demand pressure.
Picked up some of these: https://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B008XJW76U/
via Subscribe and Save (for delivery late this month) Huge price differential, with one in-stock seller at double the price. (Note Amazon is offering for $14.99). Clorox may still be still cheaper if you can get a hold of it online, but some less recognized brands may not get as much demand pressure.
138Molly3028
ANY guy from central casting in Hollywood could do a more
presidential job than Trump is doing during this virus crisis. He
has failed to grow into the position the Electoral College handed to
him on a silver platter, and that is very bad news for everyone in
the U.S.A. at this juncture.
presidential job than Trump is doing during this virus crisis. He
has failed to grow into the position the Electoral College handed to
him on a silver platter, and that is very bad news for everyone in
the U.S.A. at this juncture.
139margd
Will coronavirus go away this summer? (1:13)
60 Minutes • Mar 8, 2020
Dr. Anthony Fauci says there's no way to know just yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpO04Uic3YQ
See the full report, here:
COVID-19 Coronavirus: How U.S. hospitals are preparing, and what leading health officials say about the virus (60 Minutes 13:17)
Jonathan LaPook | 2020 Mar 08
CBS News Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Jonathan LaPook talks with medical staff at The Johns Hopkins Hospital about how they're preparing for coronavirus, and leading disease and epidemic experts weigh in on the U.S. response...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-containment-dr-jon-lapook-60-minutes-20...
60 Minutes • Mar 8, 2020
Dr. Anthony Fauci says there's no way to know just yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DpO04Uic3YQ
See the full report, here:
COVID-19 Coronavirus: How U.S. hospitals are preparing, and what leading health officials say about the virus (60 Minutes 13:17)
Jonathan LaPook | 2020 Mar 08
CBS News Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Jonathan LaPook talks with medical staff at The Johns Hopkins Hospital about how they're preparing for coronavirus, and leading disease and epidemic experts weigh in on the U.S. response...
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-containment-dr-jon-lapook-60-minutes-20...
140margd
Ontario reports 3 new cases of COVID-19, including (2) U.S. travellers
Ryan Rocca and Kerri Breen | March 8, 2020
Ontario health officials announced three additional cases of COVID-19 in Toronto on Sunday, bringing the province’s total up to 31.
- a woman in her 60s who had recently travelled to France...
- a man in his 60s, had visited Washington, D.C., earlier this month...
- a woman in her 40s who returned from Colorado on March 2...
https://globalnews.ca/news/6647308/ontario-coronavirus-woman-travelled-colorado/
Ryan Rocca and Kerri Breen | March 8, 2020
Ontario health officials announced three additional cases of COVID-19 in Toronto on Sunday, bringing the province’s total up to 31.
- a woman in her 60s who had recently travelled to France...
- a man in his 60s, had visited Washington, D.C., earlier this month...
- a woman in her 40s who returned from Colorado on March 2...
https://globalnews.ca/news/6647308/ontario-coronavirus-woman-travelled-colorado/
141davidgn
China's coronavirus recovery is 'all fake,' whistleblowers and residents claim
https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whist...
Wouldn't surprise me.
https://theweek.com/speedreads/900488/chinas-coronavirus-recovery-all-fake-whist...
Wouldn't surprise me.
142lriley
Anyway this comes from a medical student in the Czech Rep. posting as jagr2005 who posted a couple days ago in the Rangers forum at Hockeysfuture and talks about everything from the current situation in Europe to the possibility of a vaccine being available towards the end of summer:
'In regards to Coronavirus and going to NHL games.
Based on what I have learned yesterday I would not advise it. Back in CZE, the ball of our medical school just cancelled. We had a meeting with the faculty yesterday to explain the reasons behind that decision, including epidemiologists, public health professors and the head of the department for infectious diseases where half of the currently infected patients in our country are hospitalized atm.
There is no reason to panic as the lethality rate is quite low, especially among healthy population with no serious comorbidities (diseases). While the currently given 3 percent figure is much higher than influenza for instance, some models expect that the actual number of infected is as much as 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. This is due to the fact that the disease can present with no to very mild symptoms, which would not be picked up on by public health offices around the globe as these infected people are not likely to seek medical help. This would also push the actual lethality rate down to 0.15% and 0.01% among young(ish) healthy adults and children. Which is actually very close to the numbers of influenza virus.
However, according to the current (still very circumstantial, I must stress) evidence, the dose of the viral particles that infect the host also play a role in determining how severe the infection is going to be. This might explain the lethality rate in Wuhan or tourists on the Diamond Princess Cruise, who were pretty healthy but exposed to the virus for a prolonged period of time in a confined space. Which is the first clue as to why avoiding a confined space with a lot of people , e.g. a hockey game, might be a good idea.
Also, unlike with influenza, there is not vaccination or effective treatment of the minority of cases that are severe. At least not yet. Also, the fact that there are very likely 20 times as many infectious people running around who probably don't even know they are sick will very likely cause the number of confirmed cases ( and by extension the severe cases) to skyrocket in the immediate future. According to some of the experts, a large scale pandemic is unavoidable at this point. Some even go as far as suggesting that the majority of the world's population will be exposed to the virus at some point.
The goal at the moment seems to be to slow down the epidemic as much as possible, rather than stop it, which might not be possible at this point, unless very draconic measures are implemented similarly to China, which seems impossible in most democratic countries. The point of slowing it down is to relieve the health care system so that it will be able to absorb a large number of people over a prolonged period of time, as opposed to overloading and collapsing in a case of quick outbursts of infections. The overload can already be seen in hospitals in Northern Italy right now, where operating theatres had to be closed down to accommodate the high rise of patients requiring ventilation and because the capacity of ICU units was no longer sufficient.
The other reason for slowing it down is to wait for the summer. The current coronavirus, much like other coronaviruses or influenza seems to be seasonal. There seems to be no spreading of the infection in tropical or subtropical regions at the moment. This means that the current epidemic will subside once the temperatures rise. It might die down entirely or it might come back in the Fall, no one really knows right now. However this will buy more time to develop a vaccine and an effective therapy.
Obviously, large gatherings of people are the last thing you want if your goal is to slow down the epidemic. Some of our experts yesterday even advocated for all large cultural events to be cancelled until late spring/early summer.
The bottom line is: Do not panic, this is more of an influenza on steroids, rather than an ebola outbreak. If you are relatively healthy, there is no reason to barricade yourself at home and not go out. However, elderly people and those with chronic diseases (especially of the lungs and heart) or with compromised immune systems (immune suppression after transplantation, after chemotherapy etc.) would be well advised to stay at home. And if you are indeed healthy, please be responsible and don't go to events with lots of people in a confined space, try washing your hands regularly, limit touching your face with unwashed hands and stay home if you are sick. You might not realize you are infected but you might infect someone else who is already seriously ill. And people like these are the reason why exceptional epidemiological measures are absolutely warranted right now.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Later the same poster adds:
'The good news is that the vaccine might not be that far away. In fact during the SARS coronavirus some 18 years ago, the work on the vaccine started and made some headway before that outbreak was contained, which meant that the vaccine was shelved as it was no longer needed.
There is a reason that this new coronavirus is named SARS2. Thus , all the previous work can now come into fruition in that the time needed to develop the vaccine might be significantly shorter as the vaccine will likely be similar to the one that was being developed back then. The most optimistic estimates even speak about a few weeks. However, that does not take into account all the safety testing, first on animals and then on humans that needs to take place before a worldwide-scale distribution. The safety testing of course could be skipped in case the situation got totally out of hand, which hopefully won't happen. But there is still a reasonable chance it could be fast-tracked so the vaccine would be available towards the end of summer'.
'In regards to Coronavirus and going to NHL games.
Based on what I have learned yesterday I would not advise it. Back in CZE, the ball of our medical school just cancelled. We had a meeting with the faculty yesterday to explain the reasons behind that decision, including epidemiologists, public health professors and the head of the department for infectious diseases where half of the currently infected patients in our country are hospitalized atm.
There is no reason to panic as the lethality rate is quite low, especially among healthy population with no serious comorbidities (diseases). While the currently given 3 percent figure is much higher than influenza for instance, some models expect that the actual number of infected is as much as 20 times higher than the number of confirmed cases. This is due to the fact that the disease can present with no to very mild symptoms, which would not be picked up on by public health offices around the globe as these infected people are not likely to seek medical help. This would also push the actual lethality rate down to 0.15% and 0.01% among young(ish) healthy adults and children. Which is actually very close to the numbers of influenza virus.
However, according to the current (still very circumstantial, I must stress) evidence, the dose of the viral particles that infect the host also play a role in determining how severe the infection is going to be. This might explain the lethality rate in Wuhan or tourists on the Diamond Princess Cruise, who were pretty healthy but exposed to the virus for a prolonged period of time in a confined space. Which is the first clue as to why avoiding a confined space with a lot of people , e.g. a hockey game, might be a good idea.
Also, unlike with influenza, there is not vaccination or effective treatment of the minority of cases that are severe. At least not yet. Also, the fact that there are very likely 20 times as many infectious people running around who probably don't even know they are sick will very likely cause the number of confirmed cases ( and by extension the severe cases) to skyrocket in the immediate future. According to some of the experts, a large scale pandemic is unavoidable at this point. Some even go as far as suggesting that the majority of the world's population will be exposed to the virus at some point.
The goal at the moment seems to be to slow down the epidemic as much as possible, rather than stop it, which might not be possible at this point, unless very draconic measures are implemented similarly to China, which seems impossible in most democratic countries. The point of slowing it down is to relieve the health care system so that it will be able to absorb a large number of people over a prolonged period of time, as opposed to overloading and collapsing in a case of quick outbursts of infections. The overload can already be seen in hospitals in Northern Italy right now, where operating theatres had to be closed down to accommodate the high rise of patients requiring ventilation and because the capacity of ICU units was no longer sufficient.
The other reason for slowing it down is to wait for the summer. The current coronavirus, much like other coronaviruses or influenza seems to be seasonal. There seems to be no spreading of the infection in tropical or subtropical regions at the moment. This means that the current epidemic will subside once the temperatures rise. It might die down entirely or it might come back in the Fall, no one really knows right now. However this will buy more time to develop a vaccine and an effective therapy.
Obviously, large gatherings of people are the last thing you want if your goal is to slow down the epidemic. Some of our experts yesterday even advocated for all large cultural events to be cancelled until late spring/early summer.
The bottom line is: Do not panic, this is more of an influenza on steroids, rather than an ebola outbreak. If you are relatively healthy, there is no reason to barricade yourself at home and not go out. However, elderly people and those with chronic diseases (especially of the lungs and heart) or with compromised immune systems (immune suppression after transplantation, after chemotherapy etc.) would be well advised to stay at home. And if you are indeed healthy, please be responsible and don't go to events with lots of people in a confined space, try washing your hands regularly, limit touching your face with unwashed hands and stay home if you are sick. You might not realize you are infected but you might infect someone else who is already seriously ill. And people like these are the reason why exceptional epidemiological measures are absolutely warranted right now.
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Later the same poster adds:
'The good news is that the vaccine might not be that far away. In fact during the SARS coronavirus some 18 years ago, the work on the vaccine started and made some headway before that outbreak was contained, which meant that the vaccine was shelved as it was no longer needed.
There is a reason that this new coronavirus is named SARS2. Thus , all the previous work can now come into fruition in that the time needed to develop the vaccine might be significantly shorter as the vaccine will likely be similar to the one that was being developed back then. The most optimistic estimates even speak about a few weeks. However, that does not take into account all the safety testing, first on animals and then on humans that needs to take place before a worldwide-scale distribution. The safety testing of course could be skipped in case the situation got totally out of hand, which hopefully won't happen. But there is still a reasonable chance it could be fast-tracked so the vaccine would be available towards the end of summer'.
1432wonderY
>142 lriley: "While the currently given 3 percent figure is much higher than influenza for instance"
Echoing Trump's gut feeling. Thing is, WHO counts consistently from one disease to the next. When I got the flu last year and stayed home a couple of days, I was not counted in the stats because I didn't see a doctor. Same diff.
Echoing Trump's gut feeling. Thing is, WHO counts consistently from one disease to the next. When I got the flu last year and stayed home a couple of days, I was not counted in the stats because I didn't see a doctor. Same diff.
144davidgn
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/03/07/trump-coronavirus-management-style-1234...
Trump's mismanagement helped fuel coronavirus crisis
Current and former administration officials blame the president for creating a no-bad-news atmosphere that stifled attempts to combat the outbreak.
Trump's mismanagement helped fuel coronavirus crisis
Current and former administration officials blame the president for creating a no-bad-news atmosphere that stifled attempts to combat the outbreak.
145rastaphrog
Immigration courts were told to take down coronavirus info posters
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/judges-blast-trump-administration-for-ordering-...
https://www.rawstory.com/2020/03/judges-blast-trump-administration-for-ordering-...
146John5918
NHS announces plan to combat coronavirus fake news (Guardian)
The NHS {UK National Health Service} is launching a new initiative to fight coronavirus misinformation, a day after the government announced its own DCMS-led counter-disinformation unit, as conspiracy theories continue to spread on social media and elsewhere.
But, disinformation experts say, there remains little evidence of concerted efforts to spread falsehoods about the virus, suggesting that the misleading information in circulation is spread primarily through grassroots chatter.
For now, the health service’s efforts are focused on spreading accurate information about how to treat and prevent the virus, which causes the disease Covid-19...
The NHS {UK National Health Service} is launching a new initiative to fight coronavirus misinformation, a day after the government announced its own DCMS-led counter-disinformation unit, as conspiracy theories continue to spread on social media and elsewhere.
But, disinformation experts say, there remains little evidence of concerted efforts to spread falsehoods about the virus, suggesting that the misleading information in circulation is spread primarily through grassroots chatter.
For now, the health service’s efforts are focused on spreading accurate information about how to treat and prevent the virus, which causes the disease Covid-19...
147davidgn
>146 John5918: With these things, one always wonders what they're meaning to focus on. For instance, will they go after the proposition that actually, the UK really ought to have scrapped flights from Milan at this point (which continue to land every day)?
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-...
https://www.independent.co.uk/travel/news-and-advice/coronavirus-covid-19-italy-...
148John5918
Coronavirus: A problem unlike anything else Trump has faced (BBC)
There are two numbers that Donald Trump has consistently cared about and watched like a hawk. And, in his mind, they are inextricably linked.
The first is his approval ratings. Nothing unusual in that. Ever since the end of World War Two and Gallup introducing its regular polling on this, every president from Harry Truman onwards has kept a wary eye on how they are being seen by the great American public - that is normal.
The second figure is the stock market. While other presidents have seen that as a barometer to keep a watch on, no-one has obsessed about Wall Street like Donald Trump. Or if they have, they haven't provided a running commentary in quite the same way that he has.
The coronavirus is continuing its march across the US, and Trump continues to urge calm
His calculation is that if the stock market is soaring, then his approval ratings will go up and QED - he will be re-elected in November this year. So even when the stock market has the wind in its sails, the president will inhale deeply and blow forcefully in the hope of pushing the Dow even higher. And every time the Dow Jones or the S&P 500 hits a new high, he tweets to celebrate it. 280 times to be exact. In other words, roughly once every four days of his presidency he has exalted the markets.
But with the arrival of the coronavirus, the markets have taken fright - and have been plunging vertiginously over the past couple of weeks...
There are two numbers that Donald Trump has consistently cared about and watched like a hawk. And, in his mind, they are inextricably linked.
The first is his approval ratings. Nothing unusual in that. Ever since the end of World War Two and Gallup introducing its regular polling on this, every president from Harry Truman onwards has kept a wary eye on how they are being seen by the great American public - that is normal.
The second figure is the stock market. While other presidents have seen that as a barometer to keep a watch on, no-one has obsessed about Wall Street like Donald Trump. Or if they have, they haven't provided a running commentary in quite the same way that he has.
The coronavirus is continuing its march across the US, and Trump continues to urge calm
His calculation is that if the stock market is soaring, then his approval ratings will go up and QED - he will be re-elected in November this year. So even when the stock market has the wind in its sails, the president will inhale deeply and blow forcefully in the hope of pushing the Dow even higher. And every time the Dow Jones or the S&P 500 hits a new high, he tweets to celebrate it. 280 times to be exact. In other words, roughly once every four days of his presidency he has exalted the markets.
But with the arrival of the coronavirus, the markets have taken fright - and have been plunging vertiginously over the past couple of weeks...
149John5918
>147 davidgn: one always wonders what they're meaning to focus on
Who knows? But on the very limited social media which I look at I see messages with all sorts of weird unscientific advice and recommendations. I ignore it, but I know lots of people who believe much of what they read on social media. At least here in Kenya (which is of course a different case than this British initiative) we see a rise in anti-Chinese xenophobia in the country. None of this is helpful to the real issue of limiting the impact of the disease.
Who knows? But on the very limited social media which I look at I see messages with all sorts of weird unscientific advice and recommendations. I ignore it, but I know lots of people who believe much of what they read on social media. At least here in Kenya (which is of course a different case than this British initiative) we see a rise in anti-Chinese xenophobia in the country. None of this is helpful to the real issue of limiting the impact of the disease.
150margd
Um, paid sick leave? Free testing and care? Nursing home strategy?
Airlines, travel and cruise industries hurt by coronavirus could get tax relief from White House
Jeff Stein, Rachel Siegel, Heather Long and Erica Werner | March 6, 2020
...The travel and tourism industries are facing their worst crisis since the 2001 terrorist attacks, prompting White House officials to consider deferring taxes for the cruise, travel and airline industries to stem the economic fallout from the coronavirus...
...The tax deferrals for the travel industry are being considered as airlines cut back on routes and warn about declining ticket sales. Hotel chains are struggling with vacancies in Asia and are bracing for similar waves in the United States. Business travel is falling, and trade shows, music festivals and conventions are being canceled from San Francisco to Chicago to Austin to Miami. Families and college students are reconsidering spring break excursions and distant summer plans.
...It’s not clear...whether President Trump’s own hotels could be beneficiaries.
...Many travel experts and industry executives are comparing the current industry upheaval to that of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks because fear and uncertainty are driving consumer behavior and keeping people at home....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/06/white-house-could-seek-timely...
_______________________________________________
https://twitter.com/TinTinResists/status/1237175915219648518/photo/1
Airlines, travel and cruise industries hurt by coronavirus could get tax relief from White House
Jeff Stein, Rachel Siegel, Heather Long and Erica Werner | March 6, 2020
...The travel and tourism industries are facing their worst crisis since the 2001 terrorist attacks, prompting White House officials to consider deferring taxes for the cruise, travel and airline industries to stem the economic fallout from the coronavirus...
...The tax deferrals for the travel industry are being considered as airlines cut back on routes and warn about declining ticket sales. Hotel chains are struggling with vacancies in Asia and are bracing for similar waves in the United States. Business travel is falling, and trade shows, music festivals and conventions are being canceled from San Francisco to Chicago to Austin to Miami. Families and college students are reconsidering spring break excursions and distant summer plans.
...It’s not clear...whether President Trump’s own hotels could be beneficiaries.
...Many travel experts and industry executives are comparing the current industry upheaval to that of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks because fear and uncertainty are driving consumer behavior and keeping people at home....
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/03/06/white-house-could-seek-timely...
_______________________________________________
https://twitter.com/TinTinResists/status/1237175915219648518/photo/1
151margd
Exclusive: Congressmen reintroduce bill to allow members to vote from home districts
Alayna Treene | 3/10/2020
...Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) are reintroducing a 2013 bill that would enable members of Congress to virtually participate in committee hearings and vote remotely on suspension bills from their home districts amid the coronavirus outbreak
Why it matters: Congress, which is tasked with governing the country out of the coronavirus crisis, could quickly become a dangerous place for members and staffers, many of whom are over the age of 60 — the age group the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised to stay home as much as possible.
Millions of visitors also pass through Capitol Hill each year. As of this afternoon, visitors are still allowed in the building.
...Details: The "Members Operating to Be Innovative and Link Everyone (MOBILE) Resolution" would create a secure, remote voting system for members to vote on suspension bills, which are generally noncontroversial bills that require a two-thirds vote to pass...
https://www.axios.com/congress-coronavirus-bill-remote-voting-a3efcd06-ec80-4c43...
Alayna Treene | 3/10/2020
...Reps. Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.) and Rick Crawford (R-Ark.) are reintroducing a 2013 bill that would enable members of Congress to virtually participate in committee hearings and vote remotely on suspension bills from their home districts amid the coronavirus outbreak
Why it matters: Congress, which is tasked with governing the country out of the coronavirus crisis, could quickly become a dangerous place for members and staffers, many of whom are over the age of 60 — the age group the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has advised to stay home as much as possible.
Millions of visitors also pass through Capitol Hill each year. As of this afternoon, visitors are still allowed in the building.
...Details: The "Members Operating to Be Innovative and Link Everyone (MOBILE) Resolution" would create a secure, remote voting system for members to vote on suspension bills, which are generally noncontroversial bills that require a two-thirds vote to pass...
https://www.axios.com/congress-coronavirus-bill-remote-voting-a3efcd06-ec80-4c43...
152margd
Jody Lanard MD @EIDGeek | 10:29 PM · Mar 8, 2020:
I am speechless.
"The crew will be quarantined...aboard the ship, but importantly the ship will only stay in Port of Oakland for the duration of disembarkment.
This ship will depart Oakland as soon as possible and will remain elsewhere for the duration of the crew’s quarantine."
Image ( https://twitter.com/EIDGeek/status/1236841530574483473/photo/1 )
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In discussion, much sympathy for crew and head-shaking at decision:
https://twitter.com/EIDGeek/status/1236841530574483473
I am speechless.
"The crew will be quarantined...aboard the ship, but importantly the ship will only stay in Port of Oakland for the duration of disembarkment.
This ship will depart Oakland as soon as possible and will remain elsewhere for the duration of the crew’s quarantine."
Image ( https://twitter.com/EIDGeek/status/1236841530574483473/photo/1 )
---------------------------------------------------------------------
In discussion, much sympathy for crew and head-shaking at decision:
https://twitter.com/EIDGeek/status/1236841530574483473
153lriley
My brother who has some kind of management position for Blue Cross/Blue Shield out in Seattle thinks this isn't as big a deal as people are making it out to be. He talks about hygiene, washing your hands and responsible sneezing. He tells me that in Seattle--the airport is empty and out of precaution all the big corporations have their people working out of their homes. Pointing out that a third or more of our population is uninsured or underinsured doesn't really put a dent in the facade for him and that 'things are being handled well and everything is under control'.
It is in everybody's interest that this dies out in the summer but it's a hardly a sure bet.
As far as plans for going out of the country or flying or sailing on a cruise ship anywhere I would advise against it especially if you are older or if you're ever around people who are older or have health/immune issues. The entire travel industry is going to get hit really really hard and I wouldn't be surprised if some parts of it do not survive and the more prolonged this things is the worse it's going to be.
Hotelier Trump needs to pull some fast ones.
It is in everybody's interest that this dies out in the summer but it's a hardly a sure bet.
As far as plans for going out of the country or flying or sailing on a cruise ship anywhere I would advise against it especially if you are older or if you're ever around people who are older or have health/immune issues. The entire travel industry is going to get hit really really hard and I wouldn't be surprised if some parts of it do not survive and the more prolonged this things is the worse it's going to be.
Hotelier Trump needs to pull some fast ones.
154davidgn
>153 lriley: Boeing is gonna need a bigger bailout.
155margd
I can't see how a payroll cut is going to help people who don't get sick leave. Incremental at best?
ETA: minimum-wage workers don't pay taxes?
ETA: minimum-wage workers don't pay taxes?
156lriley
#154--speaking of which my brother worked a few years for them too. His father-in-law is a retired air force general who use to travel all over the world for Boeing. Boeing depends on graft.
But anyway we've bailed out the banks and the auto industry and saved coal companies and if we're bailing out all the farmers and bailing out the air industry when do we get to the point where we're bailing out everybody?
But anyway we've bailed out the banks and the auto industry and saved coal companies and if we're bailing out all the farmers and bailing out the air industry when do we get to the point where we're bailing out everybody?
157Doug1943
First of all, hats off to DavidGN for starting this very useful thread, and to MargD for so many good contributions. I haven't had time to read each post carefully, so maybe this link has already been put up, but if not ... it's a good one, not on the virus itself so much, but on how to report about it, and on whom to trust:
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/society/public-health/covid-19-coronavir...
https://journalistsresource.org/studies/society/public-health/covid-19-coronavir...
This topic was continued by SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19 (2).
